DOW JONES eyes two Bullish Targets before the end of the year.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 5-month Channel Up and is currently on its new Bullish Leg following the October 10 bounce on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry between both the Bearish and Bullish Legs within this pattern and if that continues to hold, the immediate Target of the current Bullish Leg is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 47700, which we've already mentioned on our previous analysis.
This time however, we also set a second Target towards the end of the year, being a +7.50% rise (standard Leg as you can see) from the bottom at 48500. Both Targets would make ideal technical Higher Highs for the Channel Up.
Notice also how the October 10 bounce took place also on the 1D RSI's Lower Lows trend-line. An additional indication of a strong support for the long-term bullish trend.
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Dowsignals
DOW JONES bounced at the bottom of the Channel Up. Buy signal.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up, with last Friday's flash crash breaching marginally below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That touched the bottom of the pattern and is technically a Higher Low, identical to the what the previous Bearish Leg did on the August 01 Low.
As you can see both Legs declined by -4.00% with their 4H RSIs touching the -20.00 level and rebounded. That is a technical Buy Signal, the strongest you can get within this Channel Up, and as long as the pattern's bottom holds, we expect another rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (Our Target is 47700), similar to August's Bullish Leg.
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DOW JONES waiting for a rebound on its 4H MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us last week (October 01, see chart below) an excellent Buy Signal on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) that almost instantly hit our 47000 Target:
This time it is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) that is providing the new buy opportunity as following the 47000 Higher High of the Bullish Leg, the index pulled-back on a Bearish Leg.
As you can see, the symmetry within this pattern remains high with all three Bullish Legs so far rising by around +2.75% and the 4 MA50 / 4H MA100 providing support for the Bearish Legs.
As a result, we expect a new short-term rebound, as long as the 4H MA50 holds, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 47180.
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DOW JONES Can the 4H MA100 initiate a comeback??Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 2-month Channel Up and today touched its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) for a second time after September 25.
Both in terms of price and 4H RSI action, this sequence is similar to the September 02 rebound fractal, which also following a Bull Flag, it touched the 4H MA100 for a 2nd time and then moved on to a rally that peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
The 1.5 Fib ext also priced the Higher High of the first Bullish Leg of the pattern, thus offers currently the highest probability for our next Higher High. Our long Target is slightly below it at 47000, representing a +2.80% rise from the recent Low.
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DOW JONES forming a bottom ahead of the next rally.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of September and right now it is consolidating after having hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, following a Higher High rejection at the top of the pattern.
As you can see, the 0.618 Fib was always pull-back tested after a Higher High, with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) also or at least coming very close to. As a result, the current 4H candle consolidation is technically a bottoming process before the new Bullish Leg.
The weakest Bullish Leg of this Channel Up has been +1.56%, which more than covers our 46900 Target.
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DOW JONES The Cyclical Pivot that MUST hold.Last week (Sep 03, see chart below) we gave a buy signal on Dow Jones (DJI) right at the bottom of its medium-term Channel Up, which quickly hit our 46100 Target:
This time we switch to a much wider and longer term outlook on the 1W time-frame as we are just a day before the Fed Rate Decision. The index has been trading within a strong Channel Up ever since the April 07 2025 market bottom, product of the Trade War correction early in 2024.
The 1D MA100 (red trend-line) crossed above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) forming a peculiar Bullish Cross, which interestingly enough, it is the 3rd time we see it since September 2020.
As a result, it is highly critical and as you can see, after such cross, the 1W MA50 has historically led the index higher.
What is perhaps even more critical however is the Pivot trend-line, which is essentially the former All Time High (ATH) turned into Support for the Channel Up pattern that have pushed the market higher since 2020.
As you can see, that level always held and the two rallies that we've had on the pattern like the current one, completed +25% and +22% rallies above it before an eventually correction that broke below the 1W MA50.
As a result, we could see another +20% rise at least, translating into a 54000 long-term Target, as long as both the 1W MA50 and the Pivot hold.
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DOW JONES close to a Triangle break-out leading to 47500!Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since April 24. Following the August 21 Low, it entered a short-term Ascending Triangle pattern, looking identical to May - June, which also started after a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test.
That pattern was a re-Accumulation phase, which after breaking upwards pushed the price just below its 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
With also similar 4H RSI sequences, we expect a similar reaction upon a Triangle break-out, targeting 47500 (Fib 2.5 extension).
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DOW JONES assisted by the 4H MA50 this Bullish Leg targets 47200Dow Jones (DJI) has turned its 4H MA50 (red trend-line) into Support and following the August 01 (Higher Low) bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it is extending the new Bullish Leg of the 4-month Channel Up.
With the 1D RSI also bouncing on its medium-term Support, this is a strong short-term buy signal. The previous two Bullish Legs both rose by a little over +9.00%. This gives us a 47200 Target on the short-term.
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DOW JONES Double MA50 Support Zone coming to the rescue?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and following the recent High, the price started to pull-back ahead of this week's major macroeconomic events.
By doing so, it has approached the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the first line of Support inside this pattern. The previous (Higher) Low of the Channel Up was priced on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the 2 form the strongest medium-term Support Zone at the moment.
With even the 4H RSI fractals identical, the current price action resembles the June 12 one, post 1D MA50 Low (May 23). Even if the 4H MA50 breaks, the trend will remain bullish unless it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (which would also be an invalidation of the Channel Up).
The most common rise on a Bullish Leg on this pattern has been +9.00%. As a result, our Target is 47200 as we enter September.
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DOW JONES Holding the 1W MA50 can push it to 50900.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a massive 3-year Channel Up (almost) and following the April 07 2025 rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it's been unfolding the new Bullish Leg.
Having established also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support in recent weeks, the pattern should now aim for its new Higher High long-term. Every time the index broke and stayed above its 1W MA50 during both previous Bullish Legs, a strong sustainable rally took place.
Given the similarities between their 1W MACD sequences as well as the fact that +39.51% has been a common long-term rise, we expect Dow to top next around 50900.
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DOW JONES Channel Up on its strongest Support.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 25 Low and right now it is consolidating straight after a direct contact and bounce on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Given that this also took place at the bottom of the Channel Up, it is a technical Higher Low formation, thus the strongest Support level possible.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding around the same level as the previous Higher Low, we expect the next technical Bullish Leg of the Channel Up to begin. The previous two rose by at least +7.00%, so the minimum Target we are looking for on the short-term is 46350.
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DOW JONES Strong rebound on its 4H MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) is having a strong rebound exactly on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is taking place just after the price broke above the Bull Flag that served as the accumulation pattern following the previous Channel Up.
This is a repetitive pattern and most likely we will now see the new Channel Up starting. The technical Target on such formations is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 48000.
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DOW JONES formed 1st 1D Golden Cross since 2022!Dow Jones (DJIA) completed on Monday its 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since December 12 2022! This powerful bullish pattern comes with the price close to its All Time High (ATH).
Being inside almost a 3-year Channel Up, the current rise is the pattern's latest Bullish Leg following the April 07 2025 bottom (Higher Low). Both previous Bullish Legs rose by +39.96% before forming a Higher High.
Based on the Fibonacci retracement levels, last time the previous Bullish Leg was within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone, it formed a Re-accumulation Phase for 3 months. As a result, we shouldn't dismiss the fact of trading sideways for the rest of the Summer and then picking up the pace. Our end-of-year Target remains 50000.
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DOW JONES repeating May's pattern.Dow Jones (DJI) has been testing its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since yesterday, following 2 straight weeks of trading strongly above it.
If it holds and rebounds, the pattern will draw even more similarities with May's Channel Up, which after the May 06 Low, it resumed the uptrend to peak on a +9.27% rise from the bottom, before breaking below the 4H MA50.
Since the current rise is -0.70% weaker (+4.94% against +5.66%) from May's fractal, we can assume that as long as the 4H MA50 holds, we can expect a peak at 46400.
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DOW JONES This is how it hits 50000 by the end of the year.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 03 2022 market bottom and since the April 07 2025 Low, it's been unfolding the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
Ahead of an emerging 1D Golden Cross, the first since December 13 2022, the price action looks more bullish than ever strongly supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
In fact, it is not that different from the fractal of that last 1D Golden Cross, which traded inside a neckline before the Bullish Leg broke upwards and completed eventually a +39.96% rise.
We expect a 50000 test towards the end of the year at the top of the Channel Up, which is still marginally below the tolerance levels of a +39.36% rise.
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DOW JONES about to skyrocket based on the Gold/Silver ratio!Dow Jones (DJI) has been basically consolidating for the past month or so, following the massive April 7th bottom rebound but there is a very distinct indicator that shows it is about to skyrocket.
That is the Gold/ Silver ratio (blue trend-line). Gold (XAUUSD) as a safe haven, attracts capital in times of market uncertainty. Silver (XAGUSD), as a metal of industrial use, attracts capital in times of economic boom and prosperity.
In the past 6 years more particularly, every time the Gold/ Silver ratio declined, Dow started rising aggressively (exception July-Aug 2019, when the market rose straight after), as investors clearly showed their risk-on appetite by buying Silver (optimism) at the expense of Gold (fear).
Dow's current consolidation indicates that there may be high accumulation in the past month and the ratios extended decline suggests a skyrocket move is up next.
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DOW JONES 15 year Cycles are coming to play.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the past month. Based on a remarkable cyclical frequency as the Time Cycles show, every time this 1W MA50 consolidation takes place since October 2011, it turned into the long-term Support that supported rallies of at least +40.94%.
As their 1M RSI readings also sync, we can expect the current consolidation to end soon and drive the market to at least a +40.94% rise from the 1W MA50. Our long-term Target on this is 59000.
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders close to a bullish breakoutDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, having formed the Right Shoulder supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The price is now slowly rising to test the upper neckline and if broken, expect a strong movement upwards. Technically, such patterns target their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions. The current one is at 49200 and that's our long-term Target. If you seek lower risk, you may target the 1.5 Fib extension.
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DOW JONES starting the new Bullish Leg.Dow Jones (DJI) is rallying off its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), shortly after making a new Higher Low on its 6-week Channel Up. Technically that is the start of its new Bullish Leg.
With the 4H RSI being identical to the Bullish Leg at the start of the Channel Up, we expect it to again rise by +4.30% and touch the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Target 43600.
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DOW JONES Holding the 1D MA50 can propel it to 45000.Dow Jones (DJI) contained Friday's Trump-led pull-back just above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), marking the strongest correction since April 21. So far that is purely a technical reaction to the Resistance 1 (42855) rejection a day earlier.
This is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) but above all, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, it is a bullish continuation of April's rebound/ Bullish Leg at the bottom of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern and on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
As you can see, the 1W MA200 has been the ultimate Support of this pattern and last time it started a rebound that broke above the 1D MA50 and retested it, was on the first Bullish on November 09 2023.
That pull-back held the 1D MA50 and the price action continued the bullish trend until it completed a +23.69% rise, before the next 1D MA50 break.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, we expect at least another +23.69% rise on the medium-term, which this times falls on the Resistance 2 level (45100), aligning perfectly for a technical test. Our Target will be a little lower at 45000.
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DOW JONES Can this Channel Up hold after the Fed Rate Decision?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 24 Low and yesterday's correction (technically its Bearish Leg) stopped on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Having formed already a Golden Cross, as long as this 4H MA50 holds, it should technically fuel the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
The 'weakest' Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +3.58%, so we expect a minimum repeat of that, giving a Target at 42100 on the short-term. This falls perfectly at the bottom of the 5 week Resistance Zone.
If this Channel Up doesn't get invalidated after today's Fed Rate Decision, it will most likely push the price there.
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DOW JONES Are you willing to bet against a 15 year pattern?Dow Jones (DJI) will close the month today with a massive rebound 1M candle after almost touching its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the October 2010 break above the 1M MA50, after the market recovered from the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 1M MA50 has been the ultimate long-term Buy Entry as it has always signaled rallies that ranged from +58% to +67%.
The 1M MA50 has also kept the index mostly within the 0.382 - 0.786 Fibonacci range (blue zone) of the multi-year Channel Up. Given also that the 1W RSI also reached in April its ultimate Buy Zone (green), we view this as the best long-term Buy Signal the index handed to us since the September 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis.
Since the Bullish Legs that followed have been fairly consistent on average, we expect another 58% rise minimum. Assuming a 'bad-case' scenario of being contained within the 0.786 Fib, then a 56000 long-term Target seems more than fair.
Are you willing to go against this pattern?
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DOW JONES New long-term bottom being formed on the 1W MA200.Dow Jones (DJI) hasn't yet broken above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the April 07 Low, but is nonetheless consolidating and holding the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which hasn't broken as Support since October 17 2022.
That was a few days after the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis was formed and the current Channel Up started. In fact, the rallies that started on both Channel Up bottoms since, have been almost identical in range (+22.60% and +23.80% respectively) so technically we should be expecting at least 44800 (+22.60% from April's Low) on the medium-term.
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