On our last Dow Jones (DJI) analysis (May 24, see chart below), we called for the high probability of a bearish break-out below the Channel Down, following the 1D MACD Bearish Cross (similar to April 02): As you can see, Dow delivered, so our 38350 Target got hit, with minimum losses on the buy position at the bottom of the Channel Up. Yesterday's rejection...
Dow Jones (DJI) broke on Friday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 10 and even though it failed to close above it, today has already established the price action above it. This is a strong first bullish signal but isn't enough by itself. Even though the 1D RSI has already turned its MA from Resistance to Support, we need to see a...
Following a successful sell signal at the top of the long-term Channel Up (March 28, see chart below), Dow Jones (DJI) is staging its first attempt to resume the bullish trend: Observing past behavior in similar circumstances often helps at making such projections, so we placed Dow's previous correction in August 2023 (right chart) next to today's. The key...
On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the...
Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out. Technically this is as...
Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a...
Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each. Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up...
Dow Jones (DJI) is trading within a Channel Up pattern on the 4H time-frame with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the January 19 break-out, being right on its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). As long as the price action is closing candles above it, we remain bullish, targeting a Higher High at 39100. If it closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA50, we...
Dow Jones has been trading within a 18-month Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 global market bottom. The current price action is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since December 13 2022). With the 1D RSI on Lower Highs, which is a Bearish Divergence against the Higher Highs of the price action, the...
1) Most overbought condition since May 2021 on the weekly RSI 14. 2) Converging trendlines at 38,200 stretching back since late 2021 create solid roof tested 3 times at least on 2 separate trend-lines which would make for a very tough level to break, especially when it's this overbought. ***A correction down to retest the connecting lows trend-line since late...
Dow Jones (DJI) started a strong decline since our December 29 2023 sell call (see chart below), the strongest since the remarkable rally started on the October 29 bottom: On today's analysis, we want to look into the same market dynamics and the pattern we drew 10 days ago but this time on the 1D time-frame. What stands out the most is that this time on the...
Dow Jones (DJI) is trading within a very aggressive Channel Up since the October 27 bottom that has seen it rise almost by +17%, making new a All Time High (ATH) in the process. In the meantime it is about to hit the Higher Highs trend-line that has been acting as a Resistance, rejecting similar Channel Up patterns since April 14. What is more alarming than this...
Dow Jones (DJI) maintains its bullish trade within the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 Low. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since November 01 and as long as it continues to do so, the index is more likely to test the 36975 All Time High (Jan 05 2022). Especially since it is currently on a 4H MACD Bullish Cross. The previous two...
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It's more than 2 weeks since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI), giving a bullish rebound signal on the 1D MA50 (see chart below) that quickly hit its target: The price is now significantly above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is roughly where the previous bullish wave of March - April took a medium-term pause and pulled-back first to the 1D MA50...
Dow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern and this week's pull-back, caused by a rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), may be the last before it starts rising to a new Higher High. We are taking this opportunity to buy for the short-term and target the top of the dashed Channel at 34200. The IH&S can complete its long-term...
Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the...
The Dow Jones index (DJI) has broken below the long-term Higher Lows trend-line and has transitioned into a Channel Down. The current Lower Lows leg is approaching not just the bottom of the Channel Down but more importantly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The latter in particular provided a Double Support Bounce on (June 01 and...