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#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Update #Analysis #Eddy#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Update #Analysis #Eddy Warning: Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are poised for the next wave of decline. I envision 2 scenarios for Bitcoin, both of which aim to see Bitcoin fall below $90,000. The first scenario, which is a daily block breaker, is more likely. The second scenario will only be activated when Bitcoin consolidates above $109,000, aiming to fill the FVG. Eventually, the second scenario will be activated, and the main decline will begin from the upper supply range that I have identified for you. I have identified the important supply and demand zones of the higher timeframe for you. As you can see in the chart, the trend change from bullish to bearish has been confirmed in the decline we had. This analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this analysis to enter the trade. Don't forget about risk and capital management. The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for your failure to comply with your risk and capital management. 💬 Note: This is just a possibility And this analysis, like many other analyses, may be violated. Given the specific circumstances of Bitcoin, it is not possible to say with certainty that this will happen, and this is just a view based on the ICT style and strategy with other analytical styles, including the liquidity style. Be successful and profitable. Review the result of my previous analysis on bitcoin :
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Eddy_Trade_
BITCOIN - PUMP BEFORE THE DUMP?Traders, Last time I talked about arbitrage inefficiencies between spot and perps. I expected a dip first, then a corrective move up. That view still stands — but I also expected a sweep up before the bigger move down. In my earlier notes I called for a sweep to clean the Sunday low, followed by a move back toward 120–122k with a short squeeze. That scenario is now in play. I planned to long near 109.350, after the sweep, and only if the data aligned with my thesis. What I projected vs what happened Sweep the Sunday lows, then squeeze up. Wait for the sweep and only enter if the data confirms around 109.550. Entered 109.550 once multiple signals lined up. Why I entered at 109.550 Stablecoin-margined CVD First pass: Stablecoin Margined CVD made a lower low while price made a higher low → hidden bullish divergence. Aggressive sellers were getting absorbed by resting bids. Second pass: Stablecoin Margined CVD made a higher low while price made a lower low → selling pressure fading, buyers absorbing again. Coin-margined CVD Coin Margined CVD kept making lower lows while price refused to follow → another hidden bull div. Shorts were leaning in, but passive buying held firm. Spot CVD Lower lows on CVD while price held flat or slightly higher → trapped aggressive sellers, absorbed by steady passive spot buyers. On Binance Perp Order Flow we could also see a regular bullish divergence into a smaller hidden bull div at the sweep — a clean reversal setup. Open Interest read Here’s where many traders miss the nuance. There are two main perp types on Binance and most major exchanges: Coin-margined contracts: collateralized with the underlying asset (e.g., BTC). Profits and losses are settled in BTC. Stablecoin-margined contracts: collateralized with a stable asset (e.g., USDT or USDC). Profits and losses are settled in dollars. This matters because the behavior and risk exposure of traders differ between the two: When coin-margined OI goes down, it usually means BTC-collateral traders are closing positions or getting liquidated. They’re forced to sell BTC to cover margin, which can create short-term downside pressure. When stablecoin-margined OI goes up at the same time, it often means new traders are entering positions with USDT collateral. That capital rotation usually signals fresh directional bets, often late shorts piling in after a move down. So when price stops making new lows while stablecoin OI keeps climbing, it’s a clear sign the market is loading up on shorts, but without continuation. That mismatch is short-squeeze fuel. Combine that with the CVD divergences above and it paints a strong case for a move back into overhead liquidity. Supplementary edge 1H RSI bullish divergence: RSI makes higher lows while price makes lower lows → loss of downside momentum, suggesting sellers are tiring. USDC.D and USDT.D bearish divergences: Stablecoin dominance charts make higher highs while RSI trends lower → stablecoin demand weakening. When that happens, capital tends to rotate back into BTC and risk assets, reinforcing the long bias. Broke above daily VWAP Together, these add extra confluence to the squeeze setup. Plan, target, invalidation Target: 122 area (blue box). At target: watching for rising price with fading delta, sell imbalances near highs, and absorption signals — that’s where I’ll start hunting shorts and let the market cool off. Invalidation: acceptance back below the Sunday sweep low with expanding negative delta and rising OI on the breakdown. That would kill the squeeze thesis. Summary: A clean sweep → multi-CVD bullish divergences → absorption → rising OI imbalance → RSI & VWAP confluence. All aligning for a controlled short squeeze toward 122k, before the market potentially resumes its broader corrective path. Does this mean we 100% go up? No. Markets don’t promise: they whisper. You listen, you align, and you risk what you can afford to be wrong about.
Long
by ThetaNomad
26
BITCOIN – WAIT FOR ARBITRAGE TO BALANCE SPOT MARKETSTraders, What a week it’s been. A lot of people got rekt, and I hope you were on the right side of the move. If not, it’s fine: this is how markets reset. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about what comes next, so here’s my current view. The Situation Binance/USDT wicked down to 102,000 Binance/USD wicked to 107,485.59 Coinbase/USD wicked to 107,000 That’s roughly a $5,000 difference, or about 5%, which is huge for major spot markets. Under normal conditions, spreads between top venues like Coinbase and Binance are usually below 1% (Bitwise, 2019 SEC Study on Real Bitcoin Trading Volume - for the nerds interested ;)). Why It Matters Both Binance and Coinbase printed round-number lows (102k and 107k). Round-number lows are considered “bad lows” because they attract clustered stop-loss orders and create obvious liquidity pools underneath. Studies on market microstructure (e.g., Osler 2003; Kamps & Klein 2018) confirm that price clustering at round numbers is a real behavioral bias in FX and crypto markets. Real market bottoms are messy, chaotic, and rarely form at clean, even levels. These “perfect” lows often get revisited or swept later as the market clears liquidity and finds true balance. How the Flush Works in Spot Markets Even though spot markets don’t have leverage liquidations, they still experience stop cascades and panic selling. When price breaks below a clean low, it triggers stops, sending a surge of sell orders into thin liquidity. Market makers step in to absorb those orders and rebuild liquidity from a more stable base. This is what traders call a spot flush — the market removing weak hands and resetting liquidity. Conceptually, it’s the same as a liquidation flush in futures, just without forced margin calls. What Arbitrage Does Arbitrage keeps prices between exchanges in check. When Bitcoin trades cheaper on Binance than on Coinbase, arbitrage traders buy on Binance and sell on Coinbase. This pushes the cheap venue’s price up and the expensive one down until they align. Makarov & Schoar (2020, NBER) showed that cross-exchange price deviations in Bitcoin are temporary and mean-reverting, driven by arbitrage capital restoring equilibrium. Kaiko research (2021–2023) also found that USD and USDT pairs often decouple during stress events, especially when stablecoin liquidity or banking rails get disrupted, and later realign once volatility settles. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now: a temporary dislocation that arbitrage will eventually close. What I Expect Binance already swept liquidity down to 102k. Coinbase still has a clean 107k low that hasn’t been tested. To rebalance both exchanges, I expect Coinbase to trade within 1% of the Binance 102k low, meaning roughly 103k–104k. That would bring both markets back into alignment and complete a proper spot flush. This isn’t a guaranteed move, but it’s a logical rebalancing target supported by historical arbitrage behavior. What Could Happen Before That We could still see Bitcoin move back toward 118k–120k before a potential drop. After major liquidation events, markets often retrace sharply as liquidity rebuilds and shorts get squeezed. A move higher doesn’t invalidate the idea of a later sweep; it could just be part of the natural reset phase before the market finds true equilibrium. What I’m Watching The spread between Coinbase/USD and Binance/USDT narrowing from around 5% to about 1%. Coinbase breaking below 107k and testing the 104–102k zone. A liquidity sweep followed by a strong reclaim and visible buy volume. If we move up first, I’ll watch price behavior around 118k–120k for signs of exhaustion. My Plan (Not Financial Advice) I’m staying patient and letting the market mechanics reset. If Coinbase trades into the 103k–102k zone, that’s my “let’s see what’s going on now” trigger. That doesn’t mean I’ll instantly go long — it means I’ll start watching the data: Volume and delta (are buyers stepping in?) Strength of reclaim (is the recovery fast and decisive?) Order book depth (is liquidity returning?) What is Open Interest doing? Do we see absorption? Or maybe a continuation pattern even? Only if those metrics confirm strength will I consider entering.If not, I’ll stay flat and wait for the next confirmation. So, TLDR; Both Binance and Coinbase printed clean, round-number lows that are likely to be swept again. Arbitrage will eventually bring the spot markets back into balance, which should pull Coinbase closer to Binance’s 102k low. We might even see a push toward 120k first as liquidity resets. Either way, patience is key: let arbitrage, liquidity, and order flow do their job before taking any position. And remember: Patience in trading isn’t about doing nothing, it’s about waiting for the odds to align in your favor. Chasing every move might feed the ego, but patience compounds the account. The market always rewards the trader who can sit still when everyone else is reacting. Trade safe!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ThetaNomad
16
BITCOIN BULLISH MOMENTUM CONTINUATION? 125K Still possible?BTC/USDT 1H – Breakout Setup Cup & Handle forming right under FVG zone, showing early bullish intent. Recent tariff crash created the swing low and possible reaccumulation zone. POC: 121K — strong magnet if price breaks higher. Key Levels: 🔹 115K → Breakout confirmation level 🔹 120K → Mid FVG / Resistance 🔹 121K → POC target 🔹 125K → Next liquidity zone 🔹 110K / 105K / 100K → Downside supports Bullish case: Close above 115K = breakout → target 121K–125K (FVG fill + liquidity grab). Bearish case: Fail to hold 115K → drop to 110K → 105K → 100K possible. Summary: Cup & Handle under FVG + tariff crash low = potential bullish reversal zone. Watch 115K — that’s the key trigger for direction.
Long
by King_BennyBag
19
BITCOIN – THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE FALLWhen I started trading someone told me something I’ll never forget: “If you can predict tomorrow’s newspaper headline, you understand the market.” He didn’t mean I should chase news. He meant I should read structure so well that I know what kind of headline the market is already writing, before the mass even see it. And now, looking around online, I see the complete opposite. Everywhere you look, there’s another “confluencer” talking about crypto with big words and zero understanding. People selling dreams, memberships, and indicators, while they don’t even know what open interest or CVD means. I’m not here to sell anything. I’m here to help people actually learn how to read data and see through the noise. Because what most of these so-called experts call “analysis” is just emotional guessing wrapped in confidence. What I called and what happened Last week I posted my “Big Dump” thesis. I said Bitcoin would swing fail above the highs, then drop into the 104K region. That is exactly what happened. Price ran the sweep into 126K, trapped the late buyers, and dumped straight into 104K. People blamed tariffs. The tariff headline was the spark. The fuel was crypto’s own positioning. Why the structure was ready to snap Before the crash, the data told the story clearly. Stablecoin OI went from 257K to 285K contracts (+10.9%). That is new leveraged exposure. Coin-margined OI dropped during the breakout, then rose again near the highs. Shorts were fading strength. Spot CVD stayed flat to slightly negative. Real buyers were missing. The long/short ratio fell from 2.05 to 1.02 even while price kept climbing. That’s what distribution looks like. Buyers on leverage pushing price up while stronger hands sell into them. No real spot demand, just futures exposure. You don’t need a macro event to fall. You only need a reason for those leveraged buyers to stop bidding. Think of it like a crowded elevator. Everyone keeps piling in as it moves up, feeling safe because it hasn’t stopped yet. But the moment one person hesitates, the weight shifts. When the next person panics, the whole thing drops. That’s what happens when a market is driven by leverage instead of conviction. You don’t need bad news, you just need hesitation. Look back at similar events. In May 2021, funding rates were insane, perps overloaded, and spot volume thin. Elon Musk tweeted about Bitcoin’s energy use. That tweet didn’t cause the dump. It just made leveraged longs pause. The bids disappeared and the cascade started. In August 2023, Evergrande headlines hit. Bitcoin was sitting at resistance with flat spot CVD and rising OI. Equities wobbled, crypto longs hesitated, and the structure collapsed within hours. In March 2020, when COVID panic hit, Bitcoin had already been stretched thin. Funding was high, leverage was heavy, and liquidity was weak. The virus didn’t break the market, leverage did. Leverage creates confidence until it doesn’t. Price doesn’t fall because people start selling. It falls because nobody steps in to buy. Headlines decide when the drop starts. Structure decides how far it goes. Why 104K was my first target I didn’t pick 104K out of thin air. That level was built on confluence. 1) AVWAP from the April 7 auction That swing low kicked off with massive volume. When a move starts with that kind of participation, the anchored VWAP becomes a key reference for institutional flow. It represents the average cost of that whole auction, and when extended forward, it acts as a dynamic area where liquidity and algorithms interact. That blue AVWAP line from April has been running right through the 104K region. It’s not that price revisited that auction, it’s that the anchored VWAP from that event still marks the fair value area for that entire move.When price traded back down into that region, it met that same volume-weighted anchor, creating a major confluence zone that algos and larger players watch closely. 2) The June 22 breakout left an LVN A new auction started on June 22 and pushed higher, leaving a Low Volume Node behind. An LVN is a thin zone on the volume profile where the market moved quickly with little trade. Markets often revisit these thin areas later to find balance or test unfinished business. 3) HTF Fibonacci cluster Multiple higher timeframe Fibonacci retracements and extensions overlapped near the same 104K area. When several fib levels align with structure, that’s a strong confluence zone watched by both human traders and algorithms. The 104K region was where the AVWAP line, LVN, and fib cluster all met. That’s not a random target. It’s a structurally defined area where liquidity concentrates and where markets tend to react sharply. And that’s exactly what happened. The spark versus the structure The tariff headline didn’t cause the drop. It triggered it. The structure was already unstable. Leverage was maxed. Spot demand was flat. Funding was positive and rising. When the tariff news hit, traditional markets pulled back and crypto followed instantly. It wasn’t correlation, it was liquidity contagion. Traders managing multiple books de-risk across assets when volatility spikes. That creates a gap in liquidity. When the bids vanish, the market falls into the first real pool of resting orders — in this case, the 104K zone. You saw the same mechanics during the March 2020 crash and the 2021 deleverage. External shocks trigger internal liquidation cascades. That’s why saying “this had nothing to do with crypto is completely wrong. This had everything to do with crypto. It’s like blaming the thunder for breaking a window when the glass was already cracked. Or saying the iceberg sank the Titanic when the captain was already steering through a sea of warnings. Crypto was structurally weak. Leverage was stretched, spot demand was gone, and funding was positive. When the headline hit, it didn’t cause the collapse. It just gave the market permission to do what it was already set up to do — unwind. Crypto is built on leverage. Perpetual futures dominate volume. Stablecoin collateral drives exposure. When external risk events change funding conditions or risk appetite, the crypto market reacts instantly because its structure is fragile by design. Example: When yields spike, the dollar strengthens and funding costs rise. Leveraged longs become more expensive to hold, so traders unwind positions. When equities dump, cross-asset desks reduce risk globally, which pulls liquidity out of crypto perps too. Intermarket correlation always matters. Macro sets the mood. But the speed and violence of crypto moves always come from leverage inside the system. How you can spot it next time Compare Spot CVD vs Stablecoin CVD. If stablecoin CVD rises while spot stays flat or negative, the rally is leverage-driven. Track Open Interest vs Price. Both rising together usually means exposure is building. Confirm with spot flow. Watch the Long/Short ratio. If it drops while price rises, shorts are entering and the move may be getting absorbed. Anchor VWAPs to real pivots like swing lows, breakouts, or liquidation spikes. Those levels attract institutional flow. Study Volume Profiles. LVNs are thin and often retested. HVNs are balance zones that attract price. Map HTF fib clusters for confluence. Reactions are stronger when multiple timeframes agree. Note single prints and thin brackets on TPO or volume profiles. These often act as magnets. When these factors line up, you don’t need to predict headlines. You’ll already most likely know which headline will break the market. TLDR The rally was leverage-driven: Stablecoin OI up 10.9%, Spot CVD flat, Long/Short ratio down from 2.05 to 1.02 The swing fail at 126K was the final liquidity grab 104K was the target due to AVWAP + LVN + HTF fib cluster The tariff headline was the spark, not the cause The crash was caused by leverage and missing spot demand Crypto didn’t fall because of politics. It fell because the market was already begging for an excuse to reset. The data showed it clearly weeks before the drop. If this helped you see the market a little clearer or made you think differently about how price really moves, please leave a like and drop a reaction. It keeps me motivated to keep posting real analysis, not the copy-paste bullshit hype that floods your feed every day. Check the Order Flow Data from 6 October here: ibb.co
Education
by ThetaNomad
58
#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Analysis #Eddy#BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BITCOIN #Analysis #Eddy I have identified the important supply and demand zones of the higher timeframe for you. This analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this analysis to enter the trade. Don't forget about risk and capital management. The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for your failure to comply with your risk and capital management. 💬 Note: This is just a possibility And this analysis, like many other analyses, may be violated. Given the specific circumstances of Bitcoin, it is not possible to say with certainty that this will happen, and this is just a view based on the ICT style and strategy with other analytical styles, including the liquidity style. (( The fall of Bitcoin may not change the trend of altcoins and money will move out of Bitcoin and into altcoins, and we will see altcoins grow. )) Be successful and profitable.
Short
by Eddy_Trade_
14
$LINK – PREPARING FOR A BIG DUMP – SQUEEZE TRAIN LOADING Traders, I BELIEVE THE CRYPTO MARKET IS SETTING UP FOR A BIG, BIG, BIG DUMP!, NOT JUST LINK! Last time, we nailed the BIST:LINK short from $24.55 — it hit Target 1 and Target 2 (the two boxes below) pixel perfect. From $20.00 we expected a retrace back up toward the $23.00 region, before a potential dump to $17.00. That scenario may now be unfolding. Let’s break it down: CVD & Market Participation – Bearish Divergence Building Aggregated CVD Spot → still relatively flat → tells us there’s no real spot demand or accumulation. Spot buyers are not fueling this push. Aggregated CVD Futures (Stablecoin-margined) → moving aggressively higher → lots of leveraged traders chasing the move up. Aggregated CVD Futures (Coin-margined) → also moving aggressively higher → even riskier longs, since collateral is crypto itself (double downside risk if LINK sells off). 👉 Why this is a bearish divergence: Price is being pushed higher only by aggressive leveraged longs, while spot (the foundation of demand) is not confirming. This creates a fragile rally that can easily unwind into a long squeeze. Order Flow – Signs of Absorption On Binance & Bybit perps, we see aggressive buyers stepping in (CVD making higher highs). But price is not moving higher accordingly. This is a classic absorption signal: passive limit sellers are absorbing the buying pressure, preparing for reversal. Market Context – Entering the PRZ ($23–24) HTF VAL (Value Area Low) at this region. LTF VAL aligns perfectly here too. Single Prints (TPO profile) → thinly traded zones where price moved quickly in the past, often acting as magnets and reversal points. Imbalances stacking at these levels, showing inefficiency that can flip. AVWAP Confluence → multiple anchored VWAPs cluster in this zone, creating strong resistance. All of this builds a confluence-heavy Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at $23–24. My Take We are entering a Reversal Zone packed with: No real spot demand, Leveraged longs chasing, Absorption in order flow, Strong technical confluence (VALs, TPO singles, Imbalances, AVWAP). ⚠️ This is the perfect fuel for a long squeeze dump back toward $17.00. Trade safe, manage risk. Adios 🚀🔪
Short
by ThetaNomad
9
JTO-USDT FULL TARGET BOOOOOOMHello friends 😍 💁‍♂️ This time let's go to the JTO-USDT cryptocurrency ✅ And again a great analysis and a precise area 💁‍♂️ We introduced the apple cryptocurrency from the area marked with a red circle and were monitoring 👉 We expected the price to reach the lower purple area 👉 After a little price fluctuation, the price reached the area with a Sharpe movement and crossed that area too ✅The total drop rate from the marked area was about 85%, which was very amazing 🔥🔥🔥 ✅The drop rate to the lower purple area was also 60% 🔥🔥🔥 What's better than this? 😍 Yes, this was a great analysis with great results 💖⭐ 💁‍♂️ Has anyone used this analysis? 🤔Let me know your thoughts ⚠️ None of the analysis is a recommendation to buy or sell, but simply my personal opinions on the charts. You can use the charts and choose any that interest you and take a position if you wish. To support me, I would appreciate it if you boost the analysis and share it with your friends so that I can analyze it with more energy for you, my dears. Thank you all. 💖
Short
by mehdishirian
BTC BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS?📰 BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS? TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS, CAUSING A BITCOIN BLOODBATH — $20,000 DRAWDOWN IN 2 HOURS! Bitcoin was sitting comfortably at $121,000, before a sudden macro shock — triggered by newly imposed U.S. tariffs — sent prices spiraling down to $100,000 in a matter of hours. Bulls were liquidated. Bears rejoiced. Now, the market stands at a crossroads: will this become a major dump continuation, or the foundation for a secret pump? Chart Overview & Structure On the high timeframe, BTC continues to trade within a rising wedge formation, with price now showing a significant wick rejection from the upper boundary. This move suggests a potential shift in market structure — a moment that’s likely to shake inexperienced traders. The chart reveals a clear supply and demand structure: Supply Zone: $123,452 – $130,000 D emand Zone: $98,826 – $101,400 These zones define the battlefield between bulls and bears. In addition, eight psychological levels dominate the chart — $100K, $105K, $110K, $115K, $120K, $125K, and $130K — each representing potential liquidity clusters and reaction points. Adding to the complexity, we can see a golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) forming around $106,000, perfectly aligning with prior swing lows and the midpoint of a large Fair Value Gap (FVG) overhead. This zone could serve as a reversal or continuation point depending on whether price can reclaim and hold above the major support trendline. Technical Insights The market has now tapped the rising wedge resistance three times, with the last tap forming a wick above $125K, triggering liquidity before the sharp collapse. This aligns with the classical exhaustion behavior of wedges. Moreover, a potential Head and Shoulders structure is beginning to emerge, with the right shoulder aligning near $115K — a confluence area that may attract strong bearish attention. For now, price is testing the lower support trendline — a crucial pivot area for determining whether BTC continues to break down toward demand or consolidates for recovery. This structure creates a make-or-break zone that will define the next macro leg. Bullish Scenario Despite the panic, this could be a classic liquidity flush — a “flush candle” event designed to wipe out leveraged long positions before a larger move upward. If BTC can maintain structure above the major support line and close above $106K–$110K, it opens the door for a relief rally. A reclaim of $115K would confirm buyer strength. Sustained momentum could push BTC back into the $120K–$125K range to retest the broken supply zone. Breaking through $125K would invalidate the bearish wedge, potentially igniting a run toward $130K+ and even new highs in “Pump-tober.” In this scenario, the deep liquidation event becomes fuel for a massive short squeeze, driving momentum and reigniting bullish sentiment across crypto markets. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $106K or decisively breaks below the demand zone at $98K, it would confirm a rising wedge breakdown. Below $100K, momentum could accelerate toward $95K–$92K — the next liquidity pools and volume gaps. The Head and Shoulders completion would confirm the bearish reversal structure, further strengthening the downside case. Macro sentiment, fueled by geopolitical and policy fears, could add weight to the bearish outlook. A rejection from $115K without sustained reclaim would also reinforce the bearish continuation pattern, with every psychological level above turning into resistance. Summary Bitcoin is at an inflection point — the $100K–$115K range will define the next macro move. The recent wick and structure breakdown hint at weakness, but the flush candle and liquidity sweep also suggest that a bullish rebound could be on the horizon. In short: Above $115K → Bullish continuation possible. Below $100K → Bearish expansion likely. With volatility at its peak, traders should expect massive liquidity hunts, fakeouts, and emotional traps on both sides. Whether this becomes the start of a macro correction or a secret accumulation phase before a major pump — the next few daily closes will tell the story.
by King_BennyBag
28
$BTC Daily chart $130K! or $115k DUMPBTC/USDT – Bearish Harmonic Formation | Key Levels & Scenarios Technical Overview: Price is currently forming a bearish harmonic pattern, approaching a key decision zone. The next few daily candles will determine whether BTC continues its bullish trend or initiates a corrective phase. Key Zones Demand: 122.2K – 124.7K Supply: 105.1K – 108.9K Psychological Levels: 130K · 125K · 120K · 115K Golden Pocket: Around 115K (0.618–0.65 retracement) Fair Value Gaps (FVGs): 115K–118K 110K (secondary FVG) Swing Points: Previous Swing Low: 108K Previous Swing High: 126K High Volume Nodes: 118K and 115K Market Structure BTC is respecting a consistent bullish leg with limited pullbacks. Price recently swept the 125K psychological level, aligning with harmonic completion and demand resistance. Scenario Outlook 🔼 Bullish Continuation: A daily close above the 124.7K demand zone could invalidate the bearish harmonic and signal continuation toward 130K+ targets. 🔽 Bearish Reversal: A close below the previous day’s candle low may confirm the start of a bearish correction, targeting 118K → 115K, and potentially 110K. Bearish Confluences Bearish Harmonic Pattern completion near key resistance. Golden Pocket + FVG + Psychological + Volume confluence at 115K. Extended bullish leg with no significant retracement, followed by 125K liquidity sweep. LET me know your thoughts below!
Short
by King_BennyBag
41
BITCOIN’S FINAL TRAP – THE SENTIMENT SWITCH IS COMING FASTIn my last BTC post I said a dump was likely based on data, and that thesis still stands. If anything, it’s even stronger now. . On 13 August, CME made a high at 123,590. That high was weak, no excess, flat TPO top, unfinished auction. Binance topped at 124,474, Coinbase at 124,522. CME opened with a gap down, leaving that poor high unrepaired with unfinished business and clean liquidity sitting above. From 26 September, BTC started grinding up. I expected a run of the 18 September high and a reversal around 118–119K, but price extended the move to the 1.618 extension. See my last analysis. Structure was weak, spot CVD flat, futures CVD ripping, open interest climbing. That shows perps were driving it, not real spot demand. This week CME finally cleaned it up. CME ripped through 125,025, taking out the August high at 123,590. That level matched the old highs on Binance and Coinbase almost perfectly. CME swept the old poor high left behind by spot and perps, completing the auction. This is typical CME behavior, it hunts untested reference points during RTH and often reverses right after. Flow data confirms the setup: Spot CVD down means real buyers not following. Stablecoin CVD pushing up means overleveraged longs chasing. Coin-margined CVD rolling means profit taking or hedge flow. Open interest flat at the top means trapped longs with no squeeze left. The move looks like a leveraged markup driven by perps, cleaned up by CME liquidity, and now hanging on air. CME repaired the August inefficiency, swept the prior spot high, and left another weak high with no excess, a textbook sign of distribution. There’s still a chance we see one more SFP around 126K before momentum flips, but unless spot demand picks up aggressively, that should be the final liquidity grab. My targets are 104K and 99K if 104K fails to hold, with potential for an even deeper drop beyond that level.
Short
by ThetaNomad
8
BTC - Explanation of My 35,000 Drop Prediction Here is a broken down explanation of why I’ve been predicting Bitcoin dropping to 35,000 1. We can see this diagonal ascending trendline and how price has been respecting it by looking at the various contact points circled in orange. 2. Bitcoin has been consolidating on either side of this trendline since the beginning of it. 3. Liquidity has been building and building in the form of sell orders / long stop losses all the way down as price has made no substantial recovery of these zones. 4. Eventually Bitcoin will stick it as resistance and as soon as those order blocks are hit, there is enough orders in place (stop losses and liquidations) to drop the price to 35,000 in a very short time period. Essentially, the limit orders are in place like a staircase all the way down, they will fill one after the next and the chart has all the fuel and propellant needed to make a wick to that level. 5. The only reason we would see price consolidate so truly to a bearish line like this is to attract buys and longs as it slowly moves up - this mechanic of the market makes it not only possible but highly likely to happen and we don’t need any sort of black swan or bad news. The orders are ready to set off. 6. This is way more likely than people seem to think. Every long opened has a stop loss order or liquidation order for the entire position size. We can CLEARLY see, just by looking at the chart, these wide open gaps on the chart are filled with these orders. They have been left intact PURPOSELY in order to design a natural, fast wick of a movement. 7. This wick will reclaim all of the market makers and liquidity providers liquidity to them, and de-leverage all open positions. I truly believe this will happen exactly as I say it will. - Drop to 35,000 - Very fast drop (2-12 hours for the whole movement - if not, 1 hour) I’d encourage readers to at least be mindful of the rational behind this analysis and take proper precautions to protect yourselves. Respectfully, - DD
Short
by DickDandy
2
MvrkGATEIO:MVRKUSDT 🔹 Support and Resistance Levels🔹 🔹 Resistance (R1) $0.0891 Main horizontal resistance — previous rejection zone where price failed to break through multiple times. 🔹 Mid-term Target / Minor Resistance $0.1024 Next target if $0.0891 breaks — aligns with prior consolidation top. 🔹 Support (S1) $0.0730 Strong horizontal support — multiple bounces and wick rejections from this zone. 🔹 Deeper Support (S2) $0.0660–0.0680 If $0.0730 fails, this is the next liquidity pocket from previous accumulation.🔹 Disclaimer : Not Financial Advice
by Wolftrader1337
ETHEREUM - THE TRAP IS UNFOLDING – EXPECT A BLOODBATH!As I mentioned in my latest Bitcoin and ChainLink analysis , I believe the crypto market is setting up for a huge long squeeze. Let’s break down why this move looks fragile and why you should be cautious. What do we need for a healthy rally? Spot demand – Real buyers (spot market) need to step in and absorb supply. Without this, rallies are built on leverage and tend to collapse quickly. Controlled leverage – A healthy move isn’t fueled by overleveraged longs. If open interest keeps spiking while spot demand is flat or negative, that’s a recipe for a squeeze. Auction structure support – Price should build strong bases (value areas, balanced profiles) instead of just ripping up through inefficiencies. Right now? We don’t have these ingredients. Step 1: Look at CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 For those unfamiliar, CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 is the crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH. It’s a great index to measure the “altcoin market” and often shows where broader crypto is heading. Now let’s apply some tools: Anchored VWAP (AVWAP): Tracks the average position of buyers/sellers from a specific swing (like a cost-basis anchor). Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP): Shows where most trading occurred (value area, POC, low/high volume nodes). What CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 shows: The upper AVWAP band from the swing low (A) is at 1.12T. The upper AVWAP band from the swing high (B) is also at 1.12T. Price is retracing into the Value Area High (VAH). This lines up with: An ascending trendline retest and a Fib retrace (0.75–0.786 zone). When AVWAP bands from opposite swings collide like this, it’s a double-sided supply zone. Longs from the low see this area as “expensive” → they reduce risk. Shorts from the top defend their break-even. This creates a congestion zone where strong reversals often happen unless fresh spot demand breaks through. Example: Imagine two teams pushing on opposite sides of a door at the same time. Unless one side gets backup (spot demand), the door doesn’t move — it slams shut. Step 2: Apply This to CRYPTOCAP:ETH Now, let’s clear one thing up: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 excludes both Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s basically the “altcoin index,” showing how the rest of the market behaves without the two giants. But here’s why it still matters for ETH: ETH often moves in strong correlation with altcoins, especially during risk-on or risk-off events. When CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 is at a critical resistance or AVWAP collision zone, it usually signals that risk appetite across alts is stretched. And since ETH trades like a “bridge asset” between BTC and alts, it tends to get caught in the same flows. So while ETH isn’t included in CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 , the technical structure of CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 gives us strong hints about where ETH and the altcoin market could be heading. Step 3: Check USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Yes, you can chart USDT dominance, and it’s often a leading indicator. Why? If USDT.D goes up → money flows into stablecoins → crypto selling pressure. If USDT.D goes down → money flows into crypto → bullish risk-on move. Right now: USDT.D broke out of a descending trendline and is retesting the breakout region. It’s also printing a harmonic pattern that suggests upside continuation. Step 4: Order Flow – who’s really buying ETH? This is where the story gets clear: Aggregated Spot CVD = trending down heavily. Price goes up while spot CVD goes down = spot is selling into strength → no real demand. Futures CVD (stablecoin-margined) = trending up heavily. This means perps are pushing price higher with leverage. Futures CVD (coin-margined) = trending down. Another divergence → no strong confirmation from that side either. Stablecoin OI: First impulse up = OI dropped → shorts closing, not buyers entering. Since Oct 1, OI rising → new longs piling in. ByBit Order Flow: heavy leveraged longs entering, but looks like absorption. For those that don't understand it:The rally is built on FOMO leverage longs, not real buyers. That’s fragile. Conclusion All the ingredients are here for a mega squeeze: CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 at double AVWAP + VAH + Fib confluence, ETH backfilling inefficiencies into double AVWAP supply, USDT dominance signaling risk-off, Order flow showing no spot demand, only leveraged perp longs. When this unwinds, it won’t just be ETH. Expect broad crypto to follow. The trap is unfolding. Don’t get caught on the wrong side.
Short
by ThetaNomad
4
BITCOIN’S PUMP BEFORE THE DUMP — CRYPTO ABOUT TO CRASHTRADERS, WE ARE STARING RIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM. BITCOIN’S “TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE” RALLY IS BEING PROPPED UP BY LEVERAGED PERPS, NOT REAL SPOT BUYING. THE CHART IS SCREAMING EXHAUSTION: AVWAP BANDS COLLIDING, ORDER FLOW MAXED OUT WITH AGGRESSIVE LONGS, AND A DANGEROUS IMBALANCE AROUND 118K. THIS IS THE PERFECT BREEDING GROUND FOR A MEGA LONG SQUEEZE THAT WILL NOT ONLY RIP THROUGH BITCOIN BUT DRAG THE ENTIRE CRYPTO MARKET DOWN WITH IT. THE PUMP IS THE TRAP. THE DUMP IS LOADING TLDR; This leg looks futures-driven, not spot-backed. We’re pushing into AVWAP outer-band confluence with imbalances near 118k while leveraged longs pile in. Base case: sweep the mid-Sept Weak High, fail, rotate down toward 104k (and maybe 98.5k). I’ll flip only if spot CVD takes the lead and price accepts above the AVWAP band cluster. Why I think the “mega long squeeze” is loading 1) Who’s actually buying? (Spot CVD vs Futures CVD) Spot CVD: still negative/underwhelming across the push → real buyers (spot) aren’t lifting. Futures CVD (stablecoin-margined): rising with Open Interest → perps are doing the heavy lifting. Translation: Leverage is pushing price, not genuine spot accumulation. These moves are fragile and unwind hard when OI compresses. 2) AVWAP confluence (the auction math) I’m tagging anchored VWAPs from opposing pivots (swing low→high and swing high→low). The outer bands from these anchors are overlapping in the same zone → both bottom-anchored longs see it as expensive (profit-taking), and top-anchored shorts defend their break-even. That overlap = double-sided supply. Historically, these reject unless fresh spot demand blows through (which we don’t have… yet). Still have bad September lows that are likely to be swept at 107k~ 3) 118k imbalance There’s an inefficient push / imbalance around 118k. Thin structure often gets tapped/swept, then mean-reverts if the follow-through is purely leveraged. 4) Order flow is too aggressive (late longs) OI up + positive delta into resistance = new longs chasing. On footprint, you can see buy-side aggression meeting absorption near the top of the move. That’s classic trap fuel if we print an SFP. Trade idea (conceptual, not financial advice) Base case path (bearish): ✅ Sweep the Weak High (mid-Sept) into 117.8–118.8k (imbalance + AVWAP band confluence). ✅ Print a Swing-Fail Pattern (SFP) / rejection wick on 5–15m with: Spot CVD NOT confirming (stays flat/negative), OI spikes while delta stalls (late longs absorbed). Short after the reclaim/failure back below the swept high; stop above the SFP high. Targets / magnets: 113.2–114.1k (0.382 zone / local AVWAP midlines) 111.3k (0.5 retrace / prior balance edge) 109.9–109.3k (weekend low / prior node) 106.0–104.9k (SP + LVN cluster, high-prob test area) Stretch: 103.5k (4H single print) → 98.5k if liquidation cascade extends. validation / flip criteria: Acceptance above the AVWAP outer-band cluster and 118.8k with: Spot CVD turning positive and making higher highs, OI stable or down on further upside (less leverage dependence). If that happens, I stand down on the short idea and reassess for continuation
Short
by ThetaNomad
HYPE SHORT #Update2Hello everyone 😍 💁‍♂️ Let's have an update for the HYPE-USDT cryptocurrency 👉 In the first analysis, we identified two paths, one is a decline from the same area, The second is a decline from a higher area after consuming liquidity From the first area, it fell by 18% and then moved up and consumed the high liquidity and the main decline started and fell again by 33%. 🔥 👉 It seems that the first and second targets, which are the lower orange areas, are within reach. The first orange area is the $36.5 area. The second orange area is the $31.5 area. The third area is the $26 area (low probability) compared to the two areas above. The blue path is the path I identified in the first analysis. The red line is also a head and shoulders pattern on the daily and 4-hour time frames (the head and shoulders are inside the red circle) The upper blue area is also the QM-level. 🤔 Did you use this analysis? ⚠️The analysis may not reach the final target, so at each target, if you make a good profit and see signs of a trend change, you can exit the trade or manage your capital. ⚠️ None of the analysis is a recommendation to buy or sell, but simply my personal opinions on the charts. You can use the charts and choose any that interest you and take a position if you wish. To support me, I would appreciate it if you boost the analysis and share it with your friends so that I can analyze it with more energy for you, my dears. Thank you all. 💖
Short
by mehdishirian
1
M-USDT SHORT #Update1Hello everyone 😍 💁‍♂️ Let's go for an exciting update The M-USDT cryptocurrency touched 3 of its targets with a Sharpie move It fell 34% from where I placed the analysis and 40% from where the trigger entered until now 🔥🔥🔥 In the previous analysis, I said what the signs of the decline were It wouldn't be bad to review it together once again 💁‍♂️ Signs of trend weakness: The slope of the tops is decreasing The tops are getting closer The chart's movement angle is also decreasing and becoming negative Lower tops are forming Lower bottoms are forming Did you use this analysis? ⚠️The analysis may not reach the final target, so at each target, if you make a good profit and see signs of a trend change, you can exit the trade or manage your capital. ⚠️ None of the analysis is a recommendation to buy or sell, but simply my personal opinions on the charts. You can use the charts and choose any that interest you and take a position if you wish. To support me, I would appreciate it if you boost the analysis and share it with your friends so that I can analyze it with more energy for you, my dears. Thank you all. 💖
Short
by mehdishirian
2
SHORT BITCOIN – THE TRAP IS BELOW, NOT ABOVE!Traders, From the current levels around $112.8K–$113K, I believe Bitcoin is setting up for another leg down into the $104K region. Why? Because at current levels we already have multiple Anchored VWAPs (AVWAPs) lining up from different swing high → low auctions, which makes this area heavy resistance. That means the probability of retracing higher is limited, and instead, the market is more likely to drop into $104K — where there’s significant unfinished business — before a proper bounce can occur. 🔮 Hypothesis From current levels ($112.8K–$113K), price will reject and move down toward $104K. Retracement higher than $113K is unlikely given AVWAP confluence + resistance stack. The $104K region will act as a bounce zone, potentially with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) wick. 📊 Data & Confluence 🔻 Why $104K Is a Magnet HTF Point of Control (POC): The high-volume node where markets naturally seek equilibrium. HTF AVWAP: Anchored VWAP from major pivots aligns here, marking fair value. 4H TPO Single Prints + Fib Retracements (0.75–0.786): Gaps in auction structure converge with key Fibonacci levels. CME Gap: The $104K CME RTH gap still needs filling — markets often return here for balance. Sept 1st Low (Weekly TPO): Poor excess signals unfinished auction business, pulling price back down. 🔼 Why Current Levels Won’t Hold Clustered AVWAPs (different swing high → low auctions): Acting as strong dynamic resistance. Multiple POCs at current zone: Volume saturation suggests exhaustion. Fibonacci confluence + harmonic pattern: Pointing to lower continuation. 💵 Macro Flows USDT Dominance (USDT.D): Breaking higher → capital shifting to stablecoins → bearish BTC. Aggregated CVD: Spot CVD drifting slightly higher, but futures CVD flat with no OI expansion. → No real demand behind the move. 📌 My Take Bitcoin is most likely to: Reject from current AVWAP resistance ($112.8K–$113K). Drop into $104K, clearing imbalances and luring in shorts below the 0.786 fib. Trigger a wick/squeeze move up (Swing Failure Pattern) to trap those late shorters. ⚠️ If $104K fails to hold, next target is the imbalance zone around $98.5K. ✅ Conclusion The market is loaded with resistance at current levels. Until that’s broken with conviction, the path of least resistance is down into $104K. That’s where the real battle will be. Trade safe, manage risk, and don’t get trapped on the wrong side of the wick.
Short
by ThetaNomad
Short! Short! USDCAD - Double Head and Shoulder PatternI have identified a clear head and shoulders pattern forming within a larger head and shoulders structure on the daily timeframe for USD/CAD, indicating a potential bearish reversal. From a fundamental perspective, several key factors are contributing to the current weakness in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar: Canada's labor market showed significant weakness in August 2025, with a notable loss of 65.5 thousand jobs and a rise in unemployment to 7.1%, the highest in years. This has increased market expectations for monetary easing from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Although core inflation remains above target, the weak jobs data is pushing the BoC towards potential rate cuts or a more accommodative policy stance, which weighs on the Canadian dollar. The market is currently pricing in a very high chance (around 98%) of an additional rate cut by the BoC in September, following previous reductions to 2.75%. This dovish stance contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s more cautious or hawkish approach, creating a wider interest rate differential that supports US dollar strength. Additionally, declining oil prices, a major export for Canada, are exerting further downward pressure on the CAD. While recent US economic data has been mixed, the Fed is generally seen as less dovish than the BoC, sustaining demand for the USD. Trade tensions and geopolitical risks between the US and Canada add to concerns over Canada’s growth outlook, contributing to CAD depreciation risk. Trade Tip A strong close below the Entry line will be a perfect entry /4hr TF Stoploss : Above the Left Shoulder (Red Rectangle) In summary, the combination of a weakening Canadian economy, dovish BoC bias, lower oil prices, and interest rate divergence between the US and Canada all support a bearish outlook for USD/CAD, which aligns well with the bearish head and shoulders pattern I have spotted on the chart. Not an Investment Advise
Short
by REUBEN_EUSTACE
$AVAX – ARBITRAGE DUMP DETECTED – READY TO BALANCE?Traders, Last time we nailed CRYPTOCAP:AVAX from 22.80 → 30 → 35 almost pixel perfect. Now the setup may be flipping. Let’s break it down with the THETA method: 🔹 Imbalances Perps vs Spot: Binance Perps wicked down to $26.83, Spot hasn’t filled it yet → liquidity gap below. Market Profile: Price swept the 31 Jan weekly high, a “bad high” (too much excess, unstable). Oscillators: RSI shows bearish divergences on multiple timeframes → momentum fading. Context: Market is repairing imbalance above to build liquidity, which can later be used to fix the unfinished business below. 🔹 Order Flow & AVWAP Aggressive buyers stepping in at $34–36 (since CME open). Price is now trading at the upper band of the HTF AVWAP, a zone that often signals overextension vs volume-weighted positioning. The unfilled wick imbalance at $26.83 is also the price of the HTF AVWAP itself (blue line) → strong confluence for a revisit. If downside continues, those aggressive buyers will be trapped, fueling the move lower. Next key check: At $26.90, we need to watch data + price action to define if AVAX stabilizes there or breaks further. ✅ Conclusion Price is showing signs of distribution at the HTF AVWAP upper band. Liquidity is being absorbed above, and the confluence of the wick imbalance + HTF AVWAP at $26.83 strengthens the case for a downside move. 👉 Key takeaway: Longs chasing into AVWAP extremes = potentially trapped buyers, with the market likely rotating back to $26.90–26.83 before the next decision point.
Short
by ThetaNomad
EURUSD: Price Exit from Pennant and DropHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Euro setup. Market Analysis From a broader perspective, the price has been consolidating in a wide range between the 1.1600 support level and the 1.1720 resistance level. This extended period of balance has now tightened, leading to the current, more compressed pattern where a significant move is becoming more likely. Currently, the price action is coiling within a pennant pattern. This compression of volatility suggests that energy is building for a breakout. The price is now trading very close to the apex of this pennant, testing the upper boundary near the major horizontal Resistance Zone. My Scenario & Strategy While a breakout from a pennant might seem likely, the overhead resistance at the 1.1720 level is historically significant. I'm watching for a situation where the market fakes a move to the upside to trap optimistic buyers before revealing its true intention. Specifically, I'm watching for a brief dip, followed by a rally that pushes the price just above the pennant's resistance line and into the 1.1720 - 1.1730 resistance area. The key signal would be a swift and forceful rejection from this area, pushing the price back below the breakout point. And the primary target for the resulting decline is the 1.1600 level, which aligns with the major horizontal support zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Short
by Ratner
2
BTC - Following Crash PlanBTC has been following my analysis of predicting a potential crash here. We can use DXY to anticipate when a significant liquidity grab / flash crash will occur. Since DXY is retesting a major breakdown on the weekly - monthly, it would be wise to watch for volatility today on Bitcoins price, noting these liquidity regions if we are about to enter a bull run ranging out 3-5 years. Targets and potential corrective patterns marked on this chart. Happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
68