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DUOL

$DUOL -The Rare Blend of Hyper-Growth and Profitable Discipline In the hunt for long-term compounders, investors are perpetually forced to choose between explosive growth and profitable execution. Duolingo presents a compelling exception—a company that masterfully delivers both. It is not merely a revenue growth machine; it is a free cash flow powerhouse. This dual excellence positions it precisely within the category historically proven to generate superior returns. As highlighted by Pacer Advisors, the top performers in the S&P 500 over multi-year periods are consistently those in the top quartile for both growth and free-cash-flow margins. Duolingo’s latest quarter exemplifies this elite status, making the stock impossible to ignore for growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) investors. The Proof is in the Performance: Elite Metrics The third quarter of 2025 silenced any debate about Duolingo's operational quality: Hyper-Growth: Revenue surged 41% year-over-year to $272 million, placing it among the fastest-growing public companies. Exceptional Profitability: It achieved a stunning free-cash-flow (FCF) margin of nearly 29%. This combination of a 40%+ growth rate with a ~30% FCF margin is a rarity, underscoring a fundamentally efficient and scalable economic model. This financial profile creates a powerful flywheel: rapid top-line expansion drops disproportionately to the bottom line, fueling reinvestment and innovation without external financing. The Sustainable Growth Engine: Conversion and Scale The core investment conviction is that this exceptional performance is sustainable, not a one-time event. The pathway is clear and far from saturated: Robust User Acquisition: The gamified, engaging app continues to attract a massive global audience organically. Duolingo ended Q3 with 135 million monthly active users (MAUs), up 20% year-over-year. The top of the funnel is healthy and expanding. Massive Monetization Upside: The true opportunity lies in conversion. Despite its success, only 9% of MAUs were paying subscribers in Q3—tying the company's highest rate to date. This single-digit penetration rate reveals a long, multi-year runway. The simplest and most direct path to sustained growth is systematically converting even a small additional percentage of its enormous, engaged free-user base into Super Duolingo subscribers. This lever is entirely within the company's control and requires no change in product-market fit. Management & Model: Built for Discipline A key risk with high-growth software companies is a lack of fiscal discipline, where growth is purchased at the cost of perpetual losses. Duolingo assuages this concern decisively. Inherently Scalable Model: As a pure digital business, its incremental gross margins are exceptionally high. Once the platform is built, adding new users and subscribers carries minimal cost. Proven Track Record: Management has demonstrated capital allocator discipline for years. The company has generated positive free cash flow for nearly six consecutive years—a quarterly streak that spans various market cycles. This instills confidence that leadership will not "suddenly lose its grip" and burn capital in pursuit of vanity growth. Valuation: A Compelling Entry Point After a Significant Drawdown Market sentiment has shifted dramatically. Duolingo stock has corrected more than 60% from its 2025 highs, largely reflecting a sector-wide de-rating of growth stocks rather than a degradation in its business fundamentals, which have, in fact, strengthened. This pullback has crafted an attractive valuation window: The stock now trades at approximately 26 times its free cash flow. For context, this multiple is often assigned to mature, low-growth companies—not to a business growing revenue at >40% with a ~30% FCF margin. This dislocation between business performance and market price presents a potential opportunity. If Duolingo can sustain anything close to its current growth and profitability profile, the stock is poised to perform very well over the next five years, with a credible path to doubling in value. The investment case rests not on speculative future promises, but on a demonstrated, repeatable model of profitable hyper-growth that is still in its early innings of monetization.
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by KalaGhazi
The Bullish Investment Thesis for Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ: DUOL), the globally recognized language-learning platform symbolized by its distinctive green owl, is currently presenting a compelling contrarian investment case. The stock, trading at $191.41 as of November 28th, has experienced a steep decline from its all-time high near $542. This precipitous drop is largely attributable to market anxieties surrounding potential competition from AI giants like OpenAI and Google, alongside misconceptions regarding Duolingo's own strategic adoption of artificial intelligence. A narrative has taken hold that these factors pose a fundamental threat to the company's growth trajectory. However, a closer examination reveals that this fear-driven sell-off appears disconnected from the company's robust and accelerating fundamental performance. Strong Financial and Operational Momentum Defies the Negative Narrative Beneath the surface of market pessimism, Duolingo's business engine continues to fire on all cylinders. The company's Q2 2025 financial results underscore this strength, with revenue surging 41% year-over-year to $252.3 million. More impressively, free cash flow—a critical measure of financial health and scalability—jumped 61% YoY to $86.3 million. This cash generation is fueled by a powerful subscription model, where revenue grew 46% YoY, reflecting not just user growth but deepening monetization of an exceptionally loyal user base. This loyalty is evidenced by a sprawling global community now exceeding 128 million Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and 50.5 million Daily Active Users (DAUs) as of Q3, with paid subscribers climbing 34%. The Evolution of a Durable Competitive Moat While Duolingo may lack a traditional, patent-protected moat, it has successfully cultivated formidable competitive advantages akin to those of category leaders like Spotify and Netflix. Its primary assets are unmatched global brand recognition and a superior, habit-forming user experience. The app’s gamified interface creates a high-frequency engagement loop that competitors struggle to replicate. This powerful combination acts as a significant barrier to entry and drives low user churn. Furthermore, Duolingo is strategically expanding this moat by transforming from a single-subject app into a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary learning ecosystem. Its forays into music, math, chess, and other educational verticals enhance its value proposition, increase platform stickiness, and open new revenue streams within its existing user base. Strategic AI Integration: A Catalyst, Not a Threat Contrary to the bear thesis, Duolingo’s embrace of AI is a potent tailwind, not an existential risk. The company leverages AI not to replace its core product but to accelerate and enhance it. AI tools drastically reduce the time and cost required for high-quality course creation and localization, enabling rapid content expansion into new languages and subjects. This allows Duolingo to scale its educational offerings with minimal operational friction and virtually no regulatory exposure, maintaining its asset-light, high-margin business model. AI is being deployed to personalize learning paths and improve pedagogical outcomes, thereby strengthening user engagement and satisfaction—the core of its long-term strategy. Valuation Reset Creates a Rare Entry Point The dramatic share price decline has led to a significant valuation recalibration. While still commanding a premium reflective of its growth profile, metrics have normalized from historically extreme levels. With a trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.11 and a forward P/E of 47.17 (per Yahoo Finance), the stock trades at a fraction of its former multiples, which averaged a P/E of 157 over the preceding 18 months. The current Price-to-Sales ratio of approximately 8.9x also represents a meaningful contraction. This reset occurs against a backdrop of sustained ~40% historical revenue growth and management's forward guidance suggesting approximately 35% growth. This discrepancy implies the market is pricing in an overly pessimistic scenario, potentially creating a high-reward opportunity for investors with a longer time horizon. A Prudent Shift in Strategy: Prioritizing Sustainable Long-Term Value Recent market apprehension also stems from Duolingo's deliberate and communicated strategic pivot. Management is transitioning from a singular focus on maximizing user growth at all costs to optimizing for sustainable, long-term value creation. This involves reinvesting a portion of its substantial free cash flow—which boasts a robust margin of 34.8%—back into product innovation, AI tools, and global expansion. While this reinvestment may compress near-term FCF margins, it is a calculated move from a position of strength. The company's reliable subscription revenue and clean balance sheet afford it the luxury to make these investments. The goal is to build a broader, more durable monetization base and an unassailable user experience, which management believes will ultimately accelerate cash flow growth without reliance on aggressive price hikes or marketing spend. Peer Comparison Highlights Duolingo's Superior Model When contrasted with peers, Duolingo's advantages become even clearer: Chegg (CHGG): Heavily reliant on cyclical academic demand and lacks Duolingo's daily engagement loop, making its revenue and FCF less predictable and more vulnerable to shifts in student behavior. Coursera (COUR): While a leader in professional education, its model depends on more complex institutional partnerships and carries heavier content-creation costs, leading to a less consistent FCF trajectory. Duolingo's model—scalable, consumer-focused, and engagement-driven—stands out for its potential to deliver more consistent and efficient free cash flow growth over time. Conclusion: A Compounding Story Temporarily Misunderstood In summary, Duolingo's stock decline appears to be a reaction to misplaced fears and a misinterpretation of strategic reinvestment. The company is not facing fundamental erosion; rather, it is executing a playbook to strengthen its foundation for the next decade. It possesses a powerful brand, a scalable and expanding platform, accelerating financials, and a management team steering toward enduring profitability. For patient, long-term investors, this price dislocation may represent a significant buying opportunity. The stock has identified technical support levels in the $160 and $120 zones, but the fundamental support—rooted in growing cash flows, a loyal global user base, and a vast market opportunity—is even more compelling. As CEO Luis von Ahn articulated, the ambition is to "teach billions of people." Investing in that vision at a historically low valuation multiple could offer substantial upside for those willing to adopt a contrarian stance.
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by KalaGhazi
DUOL Weekly – Bearish Shark Harmonic Completing Toward D-PointDUOL is currently forming a Bearish Shark Harmonic on the weekly timeframe, with price progressing toward the potential D-point completion zone. The structure follows the classic Shark ratios, with the 0.886–1.13 leg projecting a major support area that aligns with the long-term descending trendline. Pattern Highlights: 0X → A: Strong impulsive move leading into pattern formation A → B: Retracement near the 0.5–0.618 zone B → C: Extended leg hitting the 1.618 region C → D: Final 1.13 projection targeting long-term structural support This convergence of harmonic completion + multi-year trendline support makes the D-zone an important region to watch for a potential reaction or reversal. Momentum remains bearish, but the pattern suggests sellers may be nearing exhaustion as price approaches D.
NASDAQ:DUOLShort
by msezng
$DUOL bags could have been avoided if you had heard the thesis!- NASDAQ:DUOL valuation was fluffed up and assumed rosy story of multiple exansion. - I don't see any reason for multiple exansion at all. - NASDAQ:DUOL is most likely next NYSE:CHGG because of AI - NASDAQ:DUOL is btw creating its content using Open AI based on of the conference I saw where they consumed billion tokens. - Why need a middleman in between if your application is just gamifying language learning. - There's no way a person could learn a language by the app. - New age of AI dev, speech to speech models can directly translate one language to other language bridging the language gap.
NASDAQ:DUOLShort
by bigbull037
DUOL - NOT FOR TREND-FOLLOWING TRADERS DUOL - CURRENT PRICE : 271.28 Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is in a downtrend since 14 May 2025. The stock has recently tested the support level near USD 263, which coincides with a previous demand zone. This bounce from support highlights buying pressure, indicating the likelihood of a short-term reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved near 30 level, signaling that the stock is in oversold territory. Oversold conditions often precede a technical rebound as selling pressure eases. The confluence of oversold momentum and price stabilization at support suggests a possible bounce play. If buying volume increases, the stock could recover toward USD 297 – 325, its next resistance zone. ENTRY PRICE : 271.00 - 272.00 TARGET : 297.00 and 325.00 SUPPORT : 260.00 (CUTLOSS below 260.00 on closing basis) Notes : As the dominant trend is clearly bearish (downtrend) since 14 May 2025, this setup is not for trend-following traders.
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by IMRAN_96
4
DUOL: Premium Growth, Golden Ratio PullbackDuolingo is one of the rare consumer apps that has turned daily engagement into real money. Revenue is growing +40% year-over-year, gross margins sit above 70%, and the company is debt-free with over $1B in cash on the balance sheet. ROIC has now climbed into double digits, proving the model scales. Yes, the valuation is rich — about 113× trailing earnings and 57× forward — but investors are paying for a clear growth runway: paid subscribers are compounding fast, new verticals like Math and Music are gaining traction, and the Duolingo English Test is carving out its own niche. For long-term holders, that combination of growth + financial safety is exactly what creates durable value. Technically speaking, the stock has corrected sharply in recent months, mostly due to valuation concerns and profit-taking after a strong run. It almost feels like trying to catch a falling knife, but that’s exactly why it’s worth putting the gloves on and looking for strong support. Around $200, there’s a powerful confluence of signals: - Trendline support zone (both from wicks and closing prices) - Previous highs that now act as support - Fibonacci golden ratio (61.8%) retracement - Round number magnet at $200 - Weekly EMA200 Do your homework, and if these align with your thesis, this could be a compelling setup. It’s definitely an area worth watching. Regards, Vaido
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by VaidoVeek
1
Future looks different and simpler!- I closed my shorts recently in the morning for +20%, was short this name from the time it broke the trendline and closed it today given the chatter around NASDAQ:DUOL being undervalued blah blah..... - I was calling out don't look at the current financial numbers and look into the future. All those rosy projections of analyst will look unattainable after a few quarters. - We have AI which can do speech to speech translation. People were saying LLM can't teach you language but guys we dont need to learn any language at all. - Companies are building products and application around it. Today NASDAQ:AAPL launched feature on their earphone where it could do realtime translation. - Apple previously planned to add realtime translation in texting so that two different people can talk to each other in different languages but the text would be translated in the language of choice. - NASDAQ:DUOL is not cheap, it's still trading around 77 forward p/e which is ridiculous for an APP which has no moat and provides no other value than instant gratification of streak which keeps people hooked.
NASDAQ:DUOLShort
by bigbull037
4
Risk of Disruption is too high to ignore- Analyst estimates are too optimistic for NASDAQ:DUOL - AI risk to disruption is very high for a language learning app like NASDAQ:DUOL - Foundational multi-modal LLMs can easily do text to speech and vice versa - Vibe coding is not a direct threat but it definitely helps those who know what they are doing. It can make android or IOS developer more productive that they could easily launch a free variant or undercut the pricing NASDAQ:DUOL charges. - Even if we consider that analyst estimates for NASDAQ:DUOL would be met or beat. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61 EPS% | 61.07% | 47.13% | 38.16% Any company growing EPS > 50% deserves a forward p/e of 50. I would agree with it if there's no risk to disruption and there is a defendable moat. But giving benefit of doubt to analyst and bulls. Fair stock value with forward p/e of 50 EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61 Stock Price | $162.5 | $239 | $330 But if someone is willing to pay 100 times forward earning then you must be smoking some good pot. EPS | 3.25 | 4.78 | 6.61 Stock Price | $325 | $478 | $661
NASDAQ:DUOLShort
by bigbull037
14
DUOL Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06🧠 DUOL Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06 Bias: Moderately Bullish Holding Period: 3–4 weeks Catalyst: Oversold short-term conditions inside strong weekly uptrend Timeframe: Position trade based on weekly continuation 🔍 Multi-Model Consensus Summary Model Direction Entry Stop Target(s) Confidence DS Long 512.95 505.00 531.50 75% LM Long 510.00 484.50 561.00 70% GK No Trade – – – 50% GM Long 512.00 494.00 545.00 70% CD Long 512.95 496.26 530 / 545 / 560 75% ✅ Consensus: Buy shares around $510–513 support zone ⚠️ Mixed short-term, but weekly trend intact 🛑 Stops just below $495–505 range 🎯 Targets range from $530 to $560 📈 Technical Snapshot Price Trend: Bullish on weekly; short-term oversold pullback Support Zone: $510.00–$513.00 Resistance Targets: $530.00 / $545.00 / $560.00 RSI: 30-min oversold, weekly elevated MACD: Mixed short-term, positive long-term ✅ Trade Setup Parameter Value Instrument DUOL Direction LONG Entry Price 513.00 Stop Loss 495.00 Take Profit 540.00 Size 60 shares Confidence 72% Entry Timing At market open 🧮 Risk: Approx. $1,080 on 60 shares with an $18 stop — adjust size per account ⚠️ Key Risks Support Breach: Breakdown below $510 cancels thesis Overbought Weekly RSI: May limit upside at higher target zones Market Volatility: VIX spike or macro shock could reverse trend Mixed Short-Term View: Patience needed if consolidation extends
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by quantsignals
Duolingo Unveils Game-Changing AI Features at Duocon 2024Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ), the global leader in mobile language learning, has just made waves with its latest AI-powered innovations, announced during its annual event, Duocon 2024. These updates mark a significant leap forward for the platform and position Duolingo as a front-runner in both education technology and artificial intelligence. AI-Powered Learning Takes Center Stage At Duocon 2024, CEO Luis von Ahn emphasized the company’s ongoing mission: "to develop the best education in the world and make it universally available." Staying true to this goal, Duolingo introduced two groundbreaking AI-powered features: Video Call and Adventures. - Video Call with Lily: This feature offers Duolingo Max subscribers the chance to engage in lifelike conversations with Lily, one of Duolingo's most popular characters. It leverages AI to simulate natural dialogue and adapt to a user’s skill level, giving learners an immersive, low-pressure environment to practice languages. Currently, the feature is available for English, Spanish, and French learners. - Adventures: Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) also introduced a game-like, exploration-driven learning experience called Adventures. It immerses users in dynamic scenarios where they can interact with beloved Duolingo characters, like Oscar and Lily, while applying their language skills to real-life situations—like getting a passport or ordering coffee. This playful yet practical approach is designed to blend fun with functional learning, keeping users engaged while they improve their language abilities. Expanding into Music Education In a surprising yet exciting move, Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) announced its expansion into music education through a partnership with Loog, a portable instrument brand. Together, they are launching a compact digital piano aimed at beginners using the Duolingo Music course. The **Duolingo x Loog Piano** will be available for pre-order at $249, marking a new chapter for Duolingo’s approach to creative education. Adding even more excitement, Grammy-winning artist Jon Batiste was featured at Duocon 2024, sharing insights on the intersection of music, culture, and language. This partnership with cultural icons and major brands underscores Duolingo's commitment to diversifying its educational offerings while maintaining its focus on innovation. Technical Outlook As of today, Duolingo stock (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) is up 6.64%, trading at $287.49. However, it’s important to note that technical indicators suggest a potential consolidation or cooling off in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 87, indicating the stock is in overbought territory. Since late August 2024, Duolingo’s stock has surged significantly, driven by investor excitement over its AI innovations and product developments. The rapid increase in stock price may be poised for a pullback to the support pivot as the market digests this growth. Typically, stocks in overbought conditions like this tend to retrace and consolidate before resuming their upward trend. Strengths and Future Prospects Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) remains strong. The platform boasts over 34.1 million daily active users and 8 million paying subscribers, underscoring its dominance in the language-learning space. Duolingo’s freemium model, offering both ad-supported and subscription-based services, continues to generate steady revenue. The company's aggressive focus on leveraging AI, its expansion into music education, and collaborations with cultural figures like Jon Batiste point to a promising future. These efforts are aimed at keeping the platform engaging and appealing to an ever-expanding global audience. Conclusion Duolingo’s new AI-powered features—Video Call and Adventures—are a game-changer in the edtech space, offering users an immersive and personalized learning experience. On the stock front, while the company has shown robust growth, technical indicators suggest a possible consolidation phase. However, with strong fundamentals and a continued focus on innovation, Duolingo is well-positioned to maintain its upward trajectory in both education and the stock market. Investors should keep an eye on the stock as it consolidates, with potential buy opportunities emerging during any dips. As Duolingo (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DUOL ) continues to push the boundaries of AI and education, the long-term outlook remains highly optimistic.
NASDAQ:DUOL
by DEXWireNews
DUOL: Price structure (upd) The corrective structure for wave (2) looks to be complete. Next important mid-term resistance area: 248-345 (0.382-0.618% extension of wave (1)-(2)). In this resistance zone price may form a potential handle in long CaH patter before breaking out into long term uptrend towards next macro resistance zone: 589-820 and beyond (if following support structure holds) Proposed structure is valid if price holds above august's lows (144) Previous idea from Dec 2018 with updates: Thank you for your attention!
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by artemfedorov
Next leg up for $DUOL in de making?After a 275% increase during 2023, NASDAQ:DUOL is now in a corrective move down on the Weekly, in the form of an ABC. The most likely scenario (70% of the time) is that this will lead to another strong or weak move up from the Weekly Demand Zone, possibly a continuation of the uptrend that started in 2023. If the price closes below the Weekly Demand Zone, the scenario is no longer valid and the situation must be reassessed. Thinking in probabilities: A strong move up is followed in most cases by a weak move down and another strong or weak move up.
NASDAQ:DUOL
by Chartpod
Duolingo - Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy .Long Position: Enter a long position if the price sustains above $192, which would indicate a potential reversal of the current bearish trend. Target the next resistance at $200, with a stretch goal of $220 if the momentum continues. Place a stop loss at $185 to protect against unforeseen drops. Short Position: If the price fails to hold the $190 support and moves lower, consider entering a short position. Target the $174 (S2 pivot point) for a potential downside, with a stop loss around $195 to limit the risk. Given the current market conditions and the company's strong fundamental growth, there is a potential for the stock to test $250 within the next 12 months, representing a significant upside from current levels. However, this is contingent on the market sentiment shifting more favorably towards tech and growth stocks in the upcoming quarters. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44.08, suggesting a neutral market sentiment but leaning towards oversold conditions. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is in a bearish phase, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating potential further downside. Stochastic %K is at 19.70, which is near oversold territory, hinting at a possible relief rally or a short-term bullish reversal. The price recently tested a crucial support level at around $190 and rebounded, which coincides with a historic pivot point. This rebound suggests a potential exhaustion of the selling pressure. If the price can sustain above this level, we might see it target the next resistance near the $200 mark. Despite the recent market correction, Duolingo has posted impressive revenue growth in its latest quarterly report, surpassing expectations. This fundamental strength could support the technical rebound.
NASDAQ:DUOL
by AxiomEx
DUOL Cup and Handle possible buyAfter rough couple of days of stock and major indices decline, we are seeing some buying power coming in to the markets. DuoLingo, a platform made for learning languages with million of users worldwide, is forming a Cup and Handle, which once broken could bring good price rise. What to watch: 1. Stock is regaining it's 50 day exponential moving average. Huge green bar for today seems pretty good, though, the buying volume is unusually small. 2. From bottom to top, once we imply the Fib retracement, we see a good price bounce out of 61.8% retraction. 3. This will be my first buy point, I will be waiting for today's close, and if the price remains as it is today, I will make my first buy. Price range from $219 and up. 4. Stop loss, since markets are still in a correction mode, will be set right below today's open price, sitting at around $205.51 price level. 5. Second buy will be once I see the break of Cup top, price level $246, if that break happens I would like to see a huge buying volume, larger than previous couple of days to be precise. 6. For second buy point, my stop loss, will most likely be put under 21EMA. I will surely update on this idea, as it develops. Please make sure to do your own due diligence, do not invest your hard earned money without your own research.
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by De_Banis
SOUN a small cap AI stock ready for a VWAP reversal LONGSOUN on the 15 minute chart as fallen again to the anchored mean VWAP. Each previous time this has occurred in the past month, price has bounced into the second or third upper VWAP band line for a bullish momentum move. The mean VWAP is where big players like to pick up and drop off shares. Liquidity is at the highest. Teh Relative Trend Indicator will show best entries where the trend is negative but the returns to the chop zone to climb out of it and go positive. This indicator can function with alerts and notifications. SOUN uses AI and voice control of it to make apps more user friendly and potent. A similiar stock is DuoLingo ( DUOL) which also adds language translation into the functionality. Those on a budget in their trading love the price. Those not on a budget make love the volatility and the quick profits it can bring if traded properly.
NASDAQ:SOUNLong
by AwesomeAvani
1