Purely a guesstimate as predicting long term is impossible but oil could be in a long term correction (ABC).
Now nearing the end of (b) (shown in bright blue) to the red trendline around the $47 level, before an impulsive move for (c) (of a larger degree B wave) to $95 (point D of the Gartley and between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement of the larger degree A wave),...
Update on this idea >
Oil hit 1:1 extension (measured move) and strong resistance, possibly completing a correction to the fall from $76,88 to $42,40. Could now start the post correction impulse waves.
Weekly candle looks like a bearish pin bar and possible bearish divergence on...
Follow up on this theory >
Appears the correction is in full swing now, looks like a WXYXZ completed for the white B wave shown in this chart >
Very difficult to get anywhere near to predicting a complex correction such as WXY or WXYXZ but I'm...
Update to long term correction ideas.
Looks like C wave has now completed after hitting the 0.5 extension on Friday and dropping quickly.
It could be that ABC is complete, correcting the whole move from $77 to $42, a new low below $42 may come but I think there might be a bigger complex correction (WXY) in play which could see a 50% correction to $50, then up...
Could be completion of an ABC correction at 5738.
Alternate is only wave 3 of impulsive move was complete (in red), if price turns up from the .382 level there could be a 5th wave and a new high.
There appears to be bearish divergence on daily timeframe so a new low may occur which would fit with the ABC
Weekly candle on crude oil closed as a bearish engulfing > www.candlesticker.com
This pattern is characterized by a large black body engulfing a preceding smaller white body, which appears during an uptrend. The black body does not necessarily engulf the shadows of the white body but totally engulfs the body...
Follow up to a couple of recent ideas:
Possibly in a complex WXY correction with X wave either completed at 0.5 fib level already, or another move up to a higher fib level before the next wave (Y) down.
Update to this 5 wave count >
And internal waves of A in this larger degree count >
Even though oil hit the .382 level at $55,57 it retraced and climbed a little higher, I think there is still a little more to...
Update to this idea >
Looks like wave 4 is complete by running flat ABC and now in the 5th wave to $55 level, from there possible correction to complete right shoulder of inverse head & shoulder before the next leg up.