tomj2417

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Markets Allocation
51 % stocks 20 % forex 3 % indices 25 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
DXY 6% | 11 FX_IDC:GBPUSD 4% | 8 FX:GBPUSD 3% | 6 OANDA:GBPUSD 3% | 6
tomj2417 tomj2417 IEF, 1W, Long ,
5 0 3
IEF, 1W Long
IEF - Long US Treasuries 7-10 years

Really not sure about this count at all with all the talking heads going on about rising yields and interest rates and the general gloom surrounding bonds but with commercials very long and speculators very short on the COT index you never know in the markets. If I am right I often call the bottom to early so I wouldn't be surprised to see another leg down before ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 USOIL, 720, Long ,
51 0 2
USOIL, 720 Long
Oil - bullish alternative count

My preferred count for oil has it topping out on the 3rd July with it now embarking on a prolonged leg down. But if it should turn around here heading north again or make a new high then I might have to start taking this alternative count more seriously.

tomj2417 tomj2417 DXY, 1D, Short ,
52 0 1
DXY, 1D Short
Bearish count for Dollar index

The US dollar has had a great rally these last few weeks but has been showing some weakness lately. This count suggests there could be some decent downside before the dollar is due another rally.

tomj2417 tomj2417 LEN, 3D, Long ,
15 0 1
LEN, 3D Long
US equities - 5th wave or top?

Here's another US stock where there is a possibility of a 5th wave about to get going in my opinion. I have included a bearish alternative count (in red) that would suggest the polar opposite. As ever, the markets always allow to different outcomes.

tomj2417 tomj2417 HON, 1D, Long ,
18 0 1
HON, 1D Long
Bullish US stocks - 5th Wave?

I'm seeing a lot of US equities with very similar patterns to this one at the moment that might suggest they may be due another another decent run up. However, If they don't push on from here then it would also suggest that a major top could well be in and we can expect the present correction to deepen much further. I for one still can't decide whether to jump ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 GBPJPY, 2D, Long ,
43 0 1
GBPJPY, 2D Long
A bullish count - GBPJPY

Of course, the problem with any Elliott Wave count is there is always another count suggesting the total opposite. However, this bullish count suggests the Pound might have another leg up to complete a corrective rally that began back in October 2016. However, should the Pound break down below the 143 level it would tell me that the correction is already over and ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 DBO, 1W, Short ,
11 0 1
DBO, 1W Short
A bearish count for Oil

Some will argue that Oil bottomed in 2016 and the C wave was completed there and then and we have now embarked another bull run. This count however suggests that there is in fact another leg down to be completed. As ever, time will tell.

27 0 1
GBPUSD, 2D
A bullish and bearish count for Sterling

A bit of a messy chart and two very different counts that i can't make my mind up on. Perhaps because I'm British, I'm leaning towards the bullish count but with the history of the Pound these last few years that might be a really foolish option. I will be watching carefully what happens now as in my mind it will make up it's mind soon.

tomj2417 tomj2417 XAUUSD, 120, Long ,
83 0 2
XAUUSD, 120 Long
Which way for GOLD?

Can I count 5 waves down for GOLD? Possibly and I attempt to show that here on the chart. There are a few extra things on the chart, particularly the fib extensions and retracements, that add some weight to the idea that we might be about to see some upside for the yellow metal. However, it could also be argued that the move up since the bottom on the 21st May is ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 SHY, W, Long ,
14 0 3
SHY, W Long
Rally for US Treasury bonds?

A lot of negativity surrounding bonds these days but this count might suggest that US treasuries are due a rally or something more. This count suggests that they have finished a 5 wave down and perhaps have completed an even longer correction dating back to 2008. There is some decent divergence on the RSI to support the case and that is a pretty decent candle on ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 DEU30, 1W, Long ,
141 2 4
DEU30, 1W Long
Some confluence for a DAX top

The DAX may have recently resumed it's uptrend but this count would suggest, that while it may have further to run, there is a level not too far away where I, for one, will be looking out for any signs of a serious reversal.

tomj2417 tomj2417 SHP, 1W, Long ,
14 0 0
SHP, 1W Long
Shire Plc - bullish

It's very difficult to make any predictions on a longer term chart on TradingView using Fibonacci as the software doesn't support log scale measurements. In their absence I have just used a parallel channel to suggest that if a wave 5 has started here we could expect further decent upside for this stock. As always with 4th waves I will be looking out for it to ...

tomj2417 tomj2417 DXY, 240, Long ,
136 0 4
DXY, 240 Long
More upside for Dollar index

The present correction may or may not morph into something bigger but I still think that at some stage there is more upside for the Dollar index based on this count.

tomj2417 tomj2417 USOIL, 1D, Short ,
325 2 8
USOIL, 1D Short
Oil - corrective rally over or just a pit stop?

With every man and his dog calling for oil to go higher (me included) perhaps now is a time for a bit of caution to be shown. The main thing from this chart is that oil is hitting the 50% fib retracement of a major 5 wave move down that started in 2013 and right now, I could make a count as the end of a C wave in a ABC correction. Interesting times indeed.....

tomj2417 tomj2417 TOPIX1!, 1D, Long ,
20 0 2
TOPIX1!, 1D Long
Topix - bullish count

The Japanese Topix is certainly in an interesting place right now having just crossed two lines of major resistance. As ever with Elliott Wave there are lots more ways I could have placed a count in this chart but I am going with this one for now as my preferential count.

tomj2417 tomj2417 WOOD, 3D, Long ,
24 0 4
WOOD, 3D Long
Bullish global timber and forestry - WOOD etf

Despite it's excellent gains of the last year I still reckon that there may be further room to run for this ETF.

tomj2417 tomj2417 NFLX, 1W, Short ,
206 8 5
NFLX, 1W Short
Bubbles always look the same...

Whatever the merits or faults of the count I have attached to this Netflix chart, I have little doubt that many US tech stocks are near or at the end of a very good run. The similarities between all asset charts that have experienced parabolic rises is uncanny. This is a totally bearish count and calling tops usually ends in tears so it will probably be wrong. ...

120 2 4
DXY, 60
Alternate count - Dollar index

To me this recent Dollar strength is still a bit suspect and my main count still has the Dollar index making a lower low from here and a deeper wave 5 . However, recent strength can not be ignored and the Dollar is bouncing off a trend line that dates all the way back to 1985. I had been tracking this correction as a triangle but it seems to have broken out of ...

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