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DXY

USD/JPY - Bullish Channel, Next Targeting 148.95 (23.09.2025)#USDJPY #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis USD/JPY is trading within a Bullish Channel Pattern on the 30M chart, holding above the rising trendline support. The pair is bouncing from the support zone (147.50 – 147.70), signaling potential upside continuation. 🔹 Market Structure: Bullish channel intact with higher highs & higher lows. Price rejected the support zone and trendline. Momentum suggests buyers could retest upper channel resistance. 🔹 Key Levels: Support Zone: 147.50 – 147.70 1st Resistance: 148.58 2nd Resistance: 148.95 📈 Trading Idea: As long as USD/JPY stays above the support zone, bulls may drive price higher toward 148.58 → 148.95. ⚠️ Invalidation: A break below 147.50 would weaken the bullish outlook. “Discipline + Patience = Consistency 🔑”
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
98
DXY testing trend resistance after Powell comments The dollar clawed back some ground after Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, but I’m not convinced this bounce has legs. With the Fed now leaning dovish, the bias still favours more downside unless we see consistent cracks in the jobs market to justify the two cuts priced in for 2025. Powell reiterated on Tuesday that inflation risks are skewed higher while employment risks are tilted lower, adding: “Two-sided risks mean there is no risk-free path.” Translation: he’s keeping his options open ahead of the October meeting. Fed chatter will remain front and centre, with Mary Daly up later today, jobless claims tomorrow, and the key PCE inflation reading on Friday. The dollar index is now testing resistance around 97.60–97.80 area — a confluence of the 21-day EMA, broken support, and a trendline. Until this area breaks, it’s hard to get bullish. The broader picture of lower highs and lows still screams corrective. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXY
by FOREX.com
Gold’s Secret Driver Flashes Red – What That Means at 3,745 Sup.Gold’s rally just slammed into resistance at 3,780 - and now the market is deciding: does support at 3,745 hold for another leg up, or do rising USD and real yields flip the script? This is the most important zone of the week for gold traders. Gold (XAUUSD) is pausing just below the 3,780 resistance zone after a strong run. The bigger trend remains bullish, but intraday momentum has cooled as the USD and yields firm up. Daily Chart View (Big Picture) • Trend intact: higher lows, structure still bullish. • Support: 3,745 → 3,726. • Resistance: 3,780 → 3,810 → 3,850. • GLD ETF flows remain supportive on daily closes. 4H Chart View (Execution) • Consolidation just under 3,780. • Micro support: 3,745–3,750. • Nominal yields (US10Y ~4.11%) and real yields (DFII10 ~1.78) are ticking higher → headwind. • DXY firm at ~97.7. • GLD 4H candles consolidating, not pushing higher. Scenarios 1. Breakout Buy: • 4H close >3,780 with DXY <97.5 & US10Y <4.10 and real yields easing. • Target 3,810 → 3,850. Stop below 3,745. 2. Pullback Buy (Base Case): • Dip into 3,745–3,750 holds, with GLD stabilizing. • Target 3,780, then 3,810. Stop 3,726. 3. Bearish Flip (Lower Probability): • 4H close <3,745 while DXY/real yields extend higher. • Opens 3,726 → 3,700. Invalidation >3,780. The daily trend is still bullish, but the 4H says momentum is cooling. Best risk/reward is to let gold test 3,745–3,750 for a dip-buy setup, or wait for a confirmed breakout >3,780 with the macro drivers aligned. Are you buying the 3,745 dip, or waiting for a clean breakout at 3,780? Drop your view below ⬇️
AMEX:GLD
by Wisdom_in_Chaos
US DOLLAR LIQUIDITY GAMES MAPThe U.S. Dollar is testing traders resolve. Price action keeps pressing higher, and a daily close above 97.394 would confirm a classic “fractal low” — the kind of structural pivot that lures late buyers before the real move unfolds. 3 Key Insights Macro Calendar – Stay alert: Thu – Final Q2 GDP, Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders. Fri – Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment (final). These are the week’s steering currents for USD flows. A daily close above 97.394 is the key trigger to confirm a fresh leg higher. • EUR/USD short bias remains valid while DXY stays bid, but expect intraday volatility around data releases.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
DXY – Post-Fed Cut: What’s Next for the Dollar?The Fed has cut rates — but the dollar didn’t flinch. No major reaction, which suggests the move was priced in. I currently see two possible scenarios unfolding on DXY: Scenario 1: Triangle Completed – More Downside Ahead If we’ve finished a triangle correction, a break below 96.20 could confirm the move and open up downside toward $95–$92. Chart: Scenario 2: Ending Diagonal in Wave 5 Alternatively, the recent low may mark the end of a 5th wave diagonal, completing Wave 3 of the broader decline. If so, we could see choppy corrective action before any larger moves. Chart: Key level to watch: Break below $96.20 If price closes above $100.25 I will review the analysis as this may indicate the downward trend is complete.
INDEX:DXYShort
by jngtrading
Gold at Key Resistance: Watching 3745 Support vs 3780 Breakout (Gold (XAUUSD) is pressing into resistance near 3780 while holding strong above key support at 3745. The bigger picture remains bullish, but we are at an important decision point. Macro Drivers 📉 US10Y nominal yield easing (4.10%) → supportive for gold. 💵 DXY drifting lower (97.2) → dollar weakness tailwind. 📈 Real yields (DFII10 at 1.78%) ticking slightly higher → mild headwind. 📊 GLD ETF still making new highs → strong institutional demand. 🛡️ VIX creeping up (16.6) → safe-haven premium adding support. 🔮 T5YIE flat (2.42%) → inflation expectations stable. ⚪ Silver (XAGUSD ~44) lagging slightly → not fully confirming gold’s strength. Levels to Watch • 🔺 Resistance: 3780 → 3810 → 3850 • 🔻 Support: 3745 → 3726 → 3680 Trade Scenarios 1. ✅ Breakout Buy: If 4H closes above 3780 with weak DXY + easing yields, target 3810 → 3850. Stop below 3745. 2. ✅ Pullback Buy: If price dips to 3745–3750 with GLD still rising, re-entry zone. Stop 3726, targets 3780 → 3810. 3. ⚠️ Avoid Longs: If DXY >98 + US10Y >4.25 + real yields rise, gold likely retests supports. Bias remains bullish, supported by flows and a weak dollar, but near-term price action is stretched. I’m looking to either buy dips into 3745–3750 or wait for a confirmed breakout above 3780. 🔹 Sharing my driver-based setup so others can track gold beyond price alone. Feedback welcome. Let’s trade smarter together.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wisdom_in_Chaos
DXY Dollar Heist: Can You Escape @100?🔥 DXY Dollar Index Bank Heist Plan (Swing Trade) 🔥 Asset: DXY Dollar Index 💵Plan: Bullish 📈Thief Trading Style: Layered Limit Order Strategy 🕵️‍♂️ 🏦 The Heist Plan 🏦 Dear Thief OG's, Ladies & Gentlemen, get ready to pull off the ultimate DXY heist! 💰 We're using the Thief Layering Strategy to stack multiple limit orders and maximize our loot. Follow the plan, adjust to your risk, and let’s escape with the cash! 🚨 📈 Entry: The Break-In Strategy: Deploy multiple buy limit orders to layer your entries like a master thief 🕴️. Suggested levels: 98.00 💸 98.20 💸 98.40 💸 98.60 💸 Flexibility: Add more layers based on your risk appetite or market conditions 📊. Pro Tip: Set an alert on TradingView to catch the breakout or pullback at these levels 🚨. 🛑 Stop Loss: The Escape Route Thief SL: Set at 97.50 to protect your stash 🛡️. Risk Management: Adjust SL based on your lot size, risk tolerance, and number of layered entries ⚖️. Warning: Don’t get caught! This is a high-stakes heist—stick to your risk plan 🔥. 🎯 Target: The Getaway Police Barricade: Resistance at 100.30 🚓—watch out! Our Target: Take profits at 100.00 to escape with the loot before the market traps you 🏃‍♂️💨. 🧠 Why This Heist? The DXY is showing bullish momentum based on real-time market data 📡: Macro Factors: Strong USD demand driven by economic indicators (check COT reports, geopolitics, and intermarket analysis) 🌍. Technical Setup: Layered entries align with swing trade pullbacks and key support zones 📉. Scalpers 👀: Stick to quick long-side trades with trailing SL to lock in profits 💰. ⚠️ Trading Alerts: Stay Sharp! News Releases: Avoid new trades during high-impact news to dodge volatility traps 🚫. Position Management: Use trailing stop-loss to secure your profits and stay safe 🛡️. 💪 Boost the Heist! Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style! 🚀 Every like and view strengthens our crew, helping us rob the market with precision. Let’s make money and vanish like pros! 🤑 Stay tuned for the next heist plan, Thief OG’s! 🕵️‍♂️🎉
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by The-Thief
Dollar Index Resistance & Support AnalysisDXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is trading around 97.71, holding within an upward channel after bouncing from the 97.00–97.10 support zone. The structure shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the chart also highlights a potential “strong high” area near 98.20–98.40, where resistance from both Fibonacci retracement levels and channel tops converge. If DXY fails to break above this resistance, a retracement toward 97.20–97.00 is likely, with further downside risk toward 96.80 if that support breaks. Based on the current setup, short-term upside toward 98.20–98.40 is possible, but overall bias suggests a likely pullback (downside) after testing resistance, especially if momentum weakens near the channel top. 🔴 Sell Zone (Short Setup) - Sell Zone (Resistance area): 98.20 – 98.40 - Sell Trigger: If price tests and rejects this zone with bearish candles (reversal signals). 🟢 Buy Zone (Long Setup) - Buy Zone (Support area): 97.20 – 97.30 - Buy Trigger: If price holds above this zone and shows bullish reversal candles (hammer, engulfing, etc.). Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:DXYShort
by SibiSh
DXY | Bullish Reversal from IFVG – Targeting 99.50 Supply ZoneHello Billionaires!! In DXY D1 Projection we know The US Dollar Index has tapped into the Imbalance/Fair Value Gap (IFVG) and shown signs of bullish reaction after sweeping Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). This aligns with a potential reversal model aiming towards higher liquidity levels. 🔹 Key Points: SSL swept, confirming liquidity grab. Price reacting from IFVG as demand zone. Short-term retracement expected, followed by continuation. Targeting the BPR supply zone around 99.50 and eventually Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) above 100.00. As long as DXY holds above the IFVG zone, bullish continuation remains the primary outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by AliyanFX
Gold Futures — Extended After Bullish Surge, Watching 4 PullbackYesterday’s move pushed gold aggressively higher with almost no retrace, leaving a string of unfilled imbalances below. Price is now pressing into 3780 levels, just shy of the psychological 3800 handle. Key Scenarios: Bullish Continuation: If Asia/London hold above 3767, a squeeze into 3800–3810 is possible before any meaningful pullback. Retracement Setup: A break under 3767 could trigger a retrace into 3743 → 3719 zone, aligning with prior resistance turned support. Bigger Picture: Major 4H FVG remains untested below (around 3650–3660), which could act as a downside magnet later in the week. Patience is key after such a vertical move — waiting to see if Tuesday gives us either continuation or that first retrace.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Bearish drop off?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.85 1st Support: 96.61 1st Resistance: 98.70 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by IC Markets
XAG/USD | Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the Silver chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $42. The resistance at $42.4 is just ahead, and I expect it to be broken soon, which could push silver to higher levels. The next target and supply zone is between $42.5–$42.65. All supply and demand zones are marked on the chart — make sure to watch them closely and follow the price reaction. This analysis will be updated again! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 🔮✨EUR/USD: Outlook, Catalysts and Q4 2025 Forecast 💵 🎯 Q4 2025 Forecast & Range • Base-case: EUR/USD around $1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, drifting toward ~1.20 by year-end. • Bull case: Faster US slowdown, Fed cuts, euro resilience → test 1.25+. • Bear case: Fed stays hawkish, euro weakens → drop toward 1.15 (with risk down to 1.10–1.12). Upside scenario 🚀: Fed cuts early, ECB steady, risks ease. EUR/USD breaks 1.20, retests 1.22–1.25 zone, option gamma squeezes add momentum. Downside scenario ⚠️: US data strong, Fed stays sticky, crisis drives safe-haven USD. EUR/USD drops below 1.15 → targets 1.10–1.12. On balance: Technicals & positioning favor base/bull outcome. EUR/USD above DMA cluster, sentiment allows more upside. Break >1.18 turns 1.20 into support, opens 1.22–1.25 zone. Invalidation = sharp drop below 1.15. Core thesis: The EUR/USD appears set for a higher range into late 2025 as U.S. dollar exceptionalism fades 💵➡️💶. Markets price a Fed pivot – several rate cuts penciled in by early 2026 – against an ECB that is nearly done easing. That narrows the US–EU rate gap and should weaken the dollar 📉. At the same time, softer US growth/inflation and global portfolio shifts away from US assets may further tilt the balance toward the euro 🌍. Conversely, any U.S. data surprises or policy hiccups could bolster the greenback ⚡. Our baseline view sees EUR/USD around 1.18–1.22 in Q4 2025, roughly mid‐range of consensus forecasts 📊. 📉 EUR/USD daily chart (2023–2025) with key support at ~1.15 and resistance near 1.18–1.20. The pair has traded in a ~1.14–1.18 range since early 2025. A decisive break above 1.18 could target ~1.20–1.22 upper trendline, while a drop below 1.15 might reopen ~1.10. ________________________________________ 🔍🌐 Macro & Policy Drivers • 💡 Fed vs. ECB monetary policy (10/10): By late 2025 the Fed is widely expected to start cutting rates possibly two 25bps cuts in Q4 2025, terminal ~3.5% by 2026, whereas the ECB has nearly finished its easing cycle. A shrinking interest gap ECB depo ~1.75%, Fed funds ~3.5% supports the euro. In short, Fed pivot = USD softening. • 📊 US economic momentum (9/10): Any further slowdown or disinflation in the U.S. will prompt Fed easing sooner, undermining the dollar. Conversely, surprisingly strong US data inflation above target, resilient GDP/jobs could keep rates higher longer, capping EUR/USD gains. • 🇪🇺 Eurozone fundamentals (8/10): Europe’s recovery – aided by lower energy costs – is improving. Eurozone GDP is running around ~1–1.5% and inflation is near target, so the ECB likely pauses on cuts. Any signs of renewed growth or fiscal stimulus in the EU e.g. German budget support would bolster EUR. On the other hand, fresh euro-area weakness or political instability could dent the euro. • 🏛️ US political/fiscal factors (7/10): Trade and tax policy continue to influence flows. A reported US–China tariff “ceasefire” has already eased pressure on global trade, but any renewed tariff battles could renew safe-haven USD demand. Meanwhile, US fiscal pressures debt ceiling fights, deficit spending or threats like Section 899 taxing foreign holders of US assets could undermine confidence in the dollar. • ⚔️ Geopolitical risks (6/10): War and geopolitical events tend to drive safe-haven flows. For example, any de-escalation in Ukraine/Middle East risk would remove a bid under USD and help EUR. Conversely, a severe global shock or “risk-off” event e.g. new conflict could rerate USD up. • 📅 Seasonality & flows (4/10): Historically, EUR/USD often sees end-of-year inflows year-end rebalancing and sometimes a modest Q4 rally. Some seasonal analyses note late-November/December strength institutions locking in positions. Weaker USD around year-end if it materializes would amplify this. • 📉 Options and positioning (4/10): Large options strikes and dealer hedging can accentuate moves. For example, heavy call skew on EUR/USD tends to make gains self-reinforcing via delta-hedging. Conversely, if open interest clusters into puts at key levels, dips could be cushioned. ________________________________________ 📈🧭 Technical Roadmap EUR/USD is currently in a multi-month range ∼1.14–1.18. The recent price action shows anchored VWAPs and moving averages 20/50/100-DMA ≈1.153–1.168 converging in that band. • 🚀 Resistance: Clear supply sits ~1.18–1.18 top of range. A daily close above ~1.182 could trigger a move toward 1.20–1.22. Above 1.22, next fib-derived targets near ~1.25. • 🛡️ Support: Immediate support is the 1.161 pivot 50-DMA and then ~1.153 100-DMA. A break below ~1.153 would expose ~1.147 and open 1.10–1.12 psychological and last year’s lows. Below ~1.10, USD strength could dominate. • ⚡ Momentum: RSI and ADX are modest, implying the range could persist until a trigger. A bullish path would need clear Fed dovish hints to break out. A breakout could show the classic “impulse → pause → trend” rhythm. ________________________________________ 🌀🤖 Advanced Models & Cycles Quant techniques also point to a stronger euro ahead: • Fourier-cycle analysis of FX data shows multi-month oscillations (~1–2 years). Mean-reversion cycles suggest the early-2025 USD bounce might flip into a euro-positive Q4. • Neural-network/ML models trained on macro + technical inputs often flag Fed/ECB divergence and seasonality. Academic LSTM studies have shown strong results for EUR/USD direction forecasting. ________________________________________ 🚀 Key Catalysts (Ranked 0–10) 🔑 • 🔟 Fed rate path: The timing/magnitude of Fed cuts is THE driver. Early or larger Fed cuts vs. ECB hold would lift EUR/USD. • 🔟 U.S. economic data: Inflation surprises CPI, PCE and jobs/GDP data move expectations fast. • 🔟 ECB stance: ECB rhetoric and inflation. Stability or hawkishness boosts EUR. • 🟫 US political/fiscal moves: Trade policy, deficit fights, and Section 899 proposals could weaken USD. • 🟩 Eurozone growth & policy: Strong EU growth or fiscal stimulus = bullish EUR. Severe slowdown = bearish EUR. • 🟨 Geopolitical shocks: Escalation boosts USD; de-escalation helps EUR. • 🟦 Energy/commodity prices: High oil hurts EU, boosts USD. • 🟧 Seasonal flows: Q4 rebalancing often lifts EUR modestly. • 🟪 Options positioning: Dealer hedging around strikes magnifies moves. • ⬛ Euro-area politics: Local risks e.g. Italian budgets, German politics. ________________________________________ 🏦📊 Analysts & Institutional Forecasts • JP Morgan: ~1.20 by Q4 2025, ~1.22 mid-2026. • ING: ~1.20 end-2025, ~1.22 in 2026. • UBS: 1.21 end-2025, 1.23 mid-2026. • Morgan Stanley: ~1.25 by Q2 2026 bull case 1.30. • Goldman Sachs: ~1.20 (12M). • Consensus: ~1.15 reflecting caution if Fed cuts are delayed. Summary: The prevailing view is a weaker dollar into 2026. Most big banks have upgraded EUR/USD targets since 2024. Consensus for Dec 2025 clusters 1.15–1.25, with top banks leaning 1.20+.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
55
DOLLAR INDEX DXY WEEKLY ANALYSISDXY is trading near 97.70, attempting a rebound from the 96.90–97.00 support zone (since last week), aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Prices are facing a confluence of resistance including fib level 0.786 & middle Bollinger band near 97.70 towards approaching the falling trendline resistance around 98.00–98.10, which will be a key inflection level for direction. RSI has bounced from near-oversold (45 zone) and is pointing higher, suggesting mild bullish momentum in the short term. On the downside, a failure to hold 97.40 (fib level 0.618) could extend weakness toward 96.90, towards the falling trendline support. This week’s heavy US data calendar (Powell’s speech, PMIs, GDP, PCE) could provide catalysts for a breakout move. Overall, bias is neutral-to-bullish in the short term unless 97.40 - 97.00 zone is breached decisively.
TVC:DXYLong
by Nadia_farhat
DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios💡 DXY 4H Outlook – Key Levels & Potential Scenarios Price is currently testing an important supply zone (97.7 – 98.0) after showing a strong recovery. From here, I’m watching two possible outcomes: 🔼 Bullish Scenario If buyers manage to hold above the 97.7 – 98.0 supply zone, we could see continuation toward the next major resistance between 98.2 – 98.6. Break & retest of 98.0 would be a strong confirmation for buyers. 🔽 Bearish Scenario If the 97.7 – 98.0 area rejects strongly, price could reverse back down toward the demand zone (96.4 – 96.6) for liquidity grab. This zone has previously acted as a strong reaction point. ⚔️ Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 98.0 | 98.2 | 98.6 Support: 97.4 | 96.6 📊 This setup gives both bulls and bears opportunities depending on how price reacts at these zones. ✅ If you enjoy this type of analysis, make sure to follow me so you don’t miss the next updates. 💼 For those who want account management services (personal or funded accounts), feel free to reach out – I can help you grow consistently with risk management and proven strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by ntulilwageophrey
Gold Futures — New Week Opens Strong After Friday RallyGold closed last week bullish after sweeping liquidity below the weekly low and snapping higher into resistance. As we open into Asian session Monday, price is testing the daily high (3719). Key Scenarios This Week: Bullish: If buyers hold above 3719, continuation toward 3743 (weekly fair value gap high) and potentially 3767 (ATH marker) could play out. Bearish: A failure to hold above 3719 opens the door for retracement back toward 3700 → 3685 zone (last week’s supply area). Opening conditions look bullish, but patience is key. Waiting to see if Asia sets the tone for continuation or if NY later in the week pulls it back.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
2
US DOLLAR War Map stays simple right nowThe dollar’s been sliding for months, but we finally saw the range lows taken out after the FOMC spike, and that sets up the next move. Here’s how I’m reading it: Rotation lower is still the logical path unless politics or surprise news change the game. On the DXY chart, I’m watching for a heavy-volume node to act as a target for a short-term pullback higher. For cross-pairs, that means I’ll look for short setups while using the recent bullish dollar lows as day-to-day reference points. Key level to watch: around 98.7, where heavy bearish order-flow has been building. If the market keeps moving, it’s a straightforward trade plan: stay positive, take intraday signals, and let the bigger down-cycle play out.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup