We argued in last week's ‘Traders’ week ahead playbook’ that with an unwavering focus on inflation Fed officials may look to push back on easier financial conditions. So, while the technicals pointed to further upside, from a tactical perceptive, we could see headwinds to risky assets. What transpired was that various Fed members, even well-known doves such as...
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their July meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), the Fed confirmed a more data-dependent...
The DXY has broke South. The news always causes the DXY to re-balance itself and the Market.
Price Moves for TWO REASONS
2. imbalance- to re-balance the market. When the market is rebalance it is in its natural state. aka Consolidation.
Simplicity is always King. Indicators lag and you should never rely on them when trading live. The DXY is REAL...
A possible shorting opportunity on Gold down towards our buying zone. On the smaller timeframe, Gold has completed a 5 wave move, so I am now expecting a pullback down towards 1746 in order for market to fill the imbalance.
Drop a like and follow if you agree, or do let me know what you think!
DXY Bullish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bullish
Daily Trend: Bullish
4Hour Trend: Bullish
Trade scenario 1: We’re looking overall bullish on DXY again and we are looking for new structure to confirm this.
Ideally, price action forms a higher low near 106.400 support before continuing higher.
Trade scenario 2: For us to see DXY as more bearish we need to see a break...
Price pushed above trendline on Friday following the Nonfarm Payrolls report which was 528,000 beating the 250,000 expectation (previously 372,000). Unemployment rate was also lower @ 3.5% from 3.6% previously. Average hourly earnings came in @ 0.5% which was expected to be 0.3% (previously 0.4%) which kept the YoY rate unchanged @ 5.2% rather than the expected...
Outlook on US500 remains bullish while price remains above 3910. Aiming to fill daily imbalance before potential shift in sentiment. Targets annotated in chart. Monitoring intraday price action for potential trades with bias to the long side.
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for July 2022 surprised many as it reported that the US economy added 528,000 jobs, more than twice the consensus forecast. Total NFP employment has now returned to the pre-pandemic level, when 20 million jobs were lost.
At the same time, the US Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.5%, the lowest rate since February 2020. Additionally, US...
DXY is technically overbought and the market seems to agree. We had a several fair chances to break out above 108 in the past week, but it did not come to fruition. Technical dollar bearish headwinds SEEM to outweigh fundamental bullish dollar tailwinds for the moment. Lately, every time the 0.5 month (100 x 4 hours = 16 days) log-returns is positive and reaches...
On the daily chart we have 2 parallel channels that indicate 2 impulse Elliott Waves.
As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this huge impulse wave has been completed and now we should go sideways or down!
The first trendline is breaking out, and usually that means that other trendlines will break too.
The first target is at wave 4 + 0.382 FIB + parallel channel...