Buy first when gold falls back, and pay attention to the strengtGold went on a roller coaster ride last week. It rose to around 3377 at the beginning of the week and then fell back under pressure. After stabilizing near 3309 on Thursday, it strengthened again on Friday and came under pressure near 3361. It fell back slightly to around 3344 at the opening in the morning and is currently rising again. In the morning, pay attention to the opportunity to buy first after the pullback, pay attention to the strength of the European session, and pay attention to the pressure near 3378/80 on the upside.
Dxyanalysis
US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart AnalysisUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart Analysis
The addition of the US Dollar Index (DXY) to FXOpen’s suite of instruments offers traders potential opportunities. This financial instrument:
→ serves as a measure of the overall strength of the US dollar;
→ is not tied to a single currency pair but reflects the value of the USD against a basket of six major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, and GBP;
→ allows traders to capitalise on price fluctuations in the currency market;
→ is used in more advanced strategies for hedging risks in portfolios sensitive to sharp movements in the US dollar.
In today’s environment of heightened volatility, this instrument becomes particularly valuable. The active stance of US President Donald Trump — through the implementation of trade tariffs, sanctions, and unpredictable geopolitical rhetoric — gives traders even more reason to closely monitor the DXY chart.
Technical Analysis of the DXY Chart
Moving averages show that the US Dollar Index displayed a predominantly bearish trend during the first half of 2025.
However, the picture shifted in July: the index began rising steadily (already up approximately +1.9% since the beginning of the month), highlighted by the blue ascending trend channel.
This suggests that the DXY may have found support following a prolonged decline, and a shift in market sentiment could be underway: after a bearish phase, a period of consolidation may follow. If this scenario plays out, we could see DXY oscillating between the 97.65 and 99.30 levels – both of which show signs of acting as support and resistance (as indicated by the arrows).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
7.18 Gold intraday operation strategy, short-term short first stFrom the 4-hour analysis, the short-term support below continues to focus on around 3316-25, the short-term suppression above focuses on the 3340-45 line, and the key pressure above focuses on the 3380 line. The overall support of 3316-3345 range still maintains the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Has the DXY got you confused? Well, check out this analysis.Welcome back, traders, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 😎 , the DXY has entered a corrective phase over the past weeks. In this analysis, I’ve broken down the technicals and chart with a skeptical eye, outlined long and short triggers on the 4h timeframe , and tried to give you a solid multi-timeframe view of the setup. At the end, I’ve shared a key educational tip that can seriously boost your win rate and R/R , so make sure you check out the full analysis.
💬If you’ve got a specific symbol in mind for analysis, drop it in the comments. Have a profitable Friday, fam <3
DXY Outlook: Bullish Move Fueled by Fundamentals & GeopoliticsTechnical Analysis (4H Chart & Broader Context) 📈🕓
The DXY 4H chart shows a clear bullish trend 🚀, with higher highs and higher lows since early July. DXY has caught a strong bid, breaking above short-term resistance near 98.40 and now eyeing the previous swing high 🎯. This matches the consensus among analysts: DXY remains in a bullish structure, with momentum supported by both technicals and macro factors.
Key resistance: Next upside target is the previous high (around 99.60 on the chart), with further resistance at the psychological 100 level 🏁.
Support: Immediate support at 98.20, then 97.60 🛡️.
Momentum: Strong bullish candles and no major bearish reversal signals on the 4H. Some analysts note positioning is stretched, so a short-term pullback or consolidation is possible before more upside (IG).
Fundamental Analysis 💹🌍
Why is DXY rallying?
Fed Policy & US Data: The US economy is resilient 💪, with robust services data, strong retail sales, and a recent uptick in core inflation. The Fed is less dovish, with markets now expecting a slower pace of rate cuts 🏦.
Interest Rate Differentials: The US keeps a yield advantage as the Fed is less aggressive in cutting rates compared to the ECB and BoJ, especially with Europe and Japan facing weaker growth and possible further easing 🌐.
Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing trade tensions (Trump’s tariff threats) and global uncertainty (including Middle East risks) are driving safe-haven flows into the dollar 🛡️🌏. DXY typically strengthens during periods of geopolitical stress.
Positioning: CFTC data shows USD long positioning at multi-month highs, which could mean the market is crowded and vulnerable to short-term corrections ⚠️ (IG).
Trade Idea (Bullish Bias, Targeting Previous High) 💡💵
Setup:
Bias: Bullish, in line with the prevailing trend and macro backdrop 🟢.
Entry: Consider buying on a minor pullback to the 98.20–98.40 support zone, or on a confirmed breakout above the recent high 🛒.
Target: Previous swing high near 99.60, with a stretch target at 100.00 🎯.
Stop: Below 97.60 (recent swing low/support) ⛔.
Risk Factors:
Overbought positioning could trigger a short-term pullback ⚠️.
Any dovish surprise from the Fed or rapid de-escalation in global tensions could cap further gains 🕊️.
In summary: The DXY’s bullish trend is underpinned by resilient US data, a hawkish Fed, and global risk aversion. Your bullish bias is well-supported, with the previous high as a logical target. Watch for short-term pullbacks, but the broader trend remains up unless key support is lost. 🚦
7.17 Gold Short-Term Operation Technical Analysis!!!After a strong rise in the 1-hour gold price, it quickly fell back and closed with a long upper shadow line. The gold bulls did not successfully stabilize the market. This market is actually a venting of the news. The gold bulls are not very confident about rising again. The 1-hour gold moving average is still in a dead cross short pattern. So the gold rebound will continue to be short. The 1-hour gold pattern excludes the influence of the upper shadow line stimulated by yesterday's news. In fact, the whole rhythm is still fluctuating and falling. The upper shadow line is not long, and it is probably just a lure to buy more. After the ups and downs of gold last night, it rebounded again to the 3357 line or continued to fall under pressure. So gold will continue to rebound in the early trading and continue to be short at highs under the pressure of 3357.
A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the (DXY)A Closer Look at the Role and Recent Volatility of the US Dollar Index (DXY)
We don’t even need to say that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is one of the most influential benchmarks in global currency markets. The index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, experiences heightened volatility and presents potential opportunities.
Understanding the DXY: A Macro Lens on the Dollar
The DXY tracks the relative strength of the US dollar versus a weighted currency basket including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. Although the euro comprises nearly 58% of the index, the DXY reflects broad USD strength or weakness across global markets, not just against a single currency.
Traders and analysts use the DXY as a key macro indicator—to track policy divergence between central banks, to hedge USD exposure, and to assess broader market sentiment. Rising DXY levels often signal tightening US policy or global risk aversion, while declines may reflect weakening growth expectations, dovish Fed policy, or geopolitical stress. In volatile environments like 2025, the DXY serves as a real-time barometer of global confidence in the US economy and dollar-based assets.
Recent Price Swings: Tariffs & Policy Uncertainty Shake the Dollar
Since April, the US Dollar Index has faced one of its most volatile stretches in years, driven by a convergence of Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and new trade tariffs announced by President Trump.
April: “Liberation Day” Tariffs Trigger Market Shock
On 2 April, the announcement of sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—10% on nearly all imports, with higher duties on selected countries—jolted currency markets. The DXY fell over 2% in a single day. In the following weeks, the index continued to decline as business confidence deteriorated and early signs of recession risk emerged.
May–June: Policy Headwinds Compound Dollar Weakness
As the tariff package took effect, the dollar extended its slide—marking a ~10% drop from its late‑2024 peak, the worst first-half performance in over 50 years. Investors reassessed US growth prospects amid the pressures of trade friction. The Fed responded with a hawkish pause, while President Trump publicly urged for rate cuts, further muddying the policy outlook and pressuring the dollar.
July: Uncertainty Builds
By early July, the DXY had fallen below 97, tallying an approximate 11% year-to-date decline. Analysts cite a “perfect storm” of expanding fiscal deficits, erratic trade decisions, and growing doubts over US policy credibility as key reasons for the dollar’s fall from favour.
Why DXY Matters Now More Than Ever
The DXY has become a real-time gauge of market confidence in US policy stability. The dollar’s sharp decline in 2025 underscores how fragile that confidence can be in the face of aggressive trade measures and uncertain monetary direction.
The introduction of Trump’s tariffs has raised structural concerns among investors:
- Growth expectations have been cut due to higher input costs and supply chain friction.
- The so-called safe-haven appeal of the USD has eroded, with flows shifting to the euro, Swiss franc, and gold.
- Foreign demand for dollar assets has softened, as fears of a prolonged trade conflict and fiscal indiscipline mount.
In this climate, the DXY has evolved into a barometer for geopolitical tension, inflation fears, and investor sentiment towards US leadership.
Bottom Line
The DXY is not just a tool for dollar specialists—it's a key reference for any trader dealing with macro-sensitive instruments. As the global rate environment continues to shift and the US economy shows mixed signals, the DXY may become one of the most revealing indicators to watch and trade in the second half of 2025.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Dollar Index Seems BullishFrom the previous week candle we see that Dollar Index has closed bullish. And in this scenario we can expect Dxy to go further higher. It has hit the previous week high and touched supply zone residing above. The two possibilities have shown in the chart are
1: After touching supply zone we expect to have deeper pullback.
2: It will have short retracement and then continues hgiher.
7.11 Gold bulls rise again, beware of the black swan coming on FYesterday, Thursday, the US dollar index rose first and then fell. It once approached the 98 mark before the US market, but then gave up most of the gains.
Yesterday, spot gold fluctuated around the 3320-30 US dollar mark. After the US market, it once touched 3310, but finally rebounded to above 3320 for consolidation.
Today, Friday, gold broke through the high point of 3330 yesterday in one fell swoop in the early trading.
So this is relatively good news for bulls.
If the high point of yesterday breaks through and stabilizes, it means that the bullish upward trend may continue today.
From the current 4-hour chart:
It can be found that the current 4-hour chart of gold has stabilized in the breakthrough range.
So if gold continues to go up, simply look at the previous high point.
The two recent high points are around 3345 and 3360.
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals:
The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967.
Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA).
Fundamentals:
The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays.
A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations.
Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs.
Current narrative:
The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency.
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
Dollar Index AnalysisTwo possibilities for the dollar index has been shown here. We can see that dollar index is showing a short term uptrend. Which is clearly visible from the chart.
1: Dxy can maintain this short term uptrend. Because it is a monthly pullback. As it has been
for last 5 months.
2: Dxy can change character and again touches to the monthly demand zone as shown in my
previous video.
Dollar Index Analysis [DXY]Market has show upper wicks for last 3 days which is the sign that there is still sell pressure. The daily candles for this week are range bound. 4H chart is showing short term uptrend which is maintaining higher highs and higher lows. We can use this range to have scalps in this range.
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Gold's short-term decline is limited and will continue to riseWith the rise of gold in the US market yesterday, the trend line of the downward trend channel has been supported many times in the short cycle. After the rebound, we still need to pay attention to the suppression of 3328-30. This position is the suppression position of the 4-hour downward trend channel. If it breaks, the overall trend will be a rising flag, which may continue the upward trend. Of course, if it continues to not break through the suppression of 3328-30, it may fluctuate within the range. This requires further observation.
Intraday short-term suggestions: short-term long mainly, pay attention to the support of short-term long near 3307, stop loss 3297, take profit at 3328-30 suppression, break at 3348-50, pay attention to risks.
Dollar Index AnalysisDollar Index has been in continuous sell for last 5 Months. Has hit the demand zone and giving a pull back and short term trend in daily and 4H charts. From the 4H charts we can see that it is in short term uptrend move and has pushed higher and it is giving a pull back which is visible.
7.9 Gold long and short switches frequently!From the daily chart, the overall gold price is still in a weak position, the moving average is hooked, and the upper pressure is near the moving average 3319. Only if it breaks through and stands firm at this position during the day, can the bulls start to exert their strength. It happens that the MA10 position of H4 is also near 3319. At present, H4 is in a bearish trend, so the bullish pressure is still very large, but it rose in the early morning, and it bottomed out and rebounded. Combined with the recent non-continuation of the long and short trends, there is a high probability of rebounding during the day, so we can go long in the Asian session first, and go long directly at the current price of 3300, add positions to 3295, defend 3286, and look at 3312-19. The focus is still on the strength of the European session. If the European session is strong, continue to go long before the US session retreats; if the European session is weak, the US session will bottom out and rebound!
Weekly range to be continued, gold short and long this weekLast week, gold opened high at 3280.9 at the beginning of the week and then fell back. The weekly low reached 3245.8, and then the market was strongly pulled up by the support of this round of trend line and fundamentals. On Thursday morning, the weekly high touched 3366, and then the market fell strongly under the strong influence of non-agricultural data. On Friday, the market consolidated in the range due to the holiday, and the weekly line finally closed at 3337.2. The weekly line closed with a medium-sized positive line with equal upper and lower shadows. After ending in this pattern, today's market continued to move in the range. In terms of points, the stop loss was still at 3346 after the short position at 3342 last Friday. Today, it first rose to 3342 and the short stop loss was still 3346. The target below is 3330 and 3322. If it falls below, the support of 3310 and 3300-3292 will be targeted.
DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 DXY Potential Bullish Reversal – Target 99.456 🎯
Technical Analysis Overview:
🔹 Trend Structure:
The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, which has been broken as price moved above the descending trendline, signaling a potential trend reversal.
🔹 Pattern Insight:
A bullish harmonic pattern is visible (possibly a bullish Bat or Gartley), with the price reacting from the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone), aligning with key support near 96.500. The market has respected this zone multiple times, evident from the orange highlighted circles showing price rejections.
🔹 Support & Resistance:
Support Zone: ~96.500
Breakout Zone: ~96.985 (current consolidation near this resistance)
Target Zone: Marked at 99.456, which aligns with previous structure and fib projection.
🔹 Market Sentiment:
Price is consolidating after breaking the downtrend, forming a bullish rectangle (accumulation). The green arrows indicate bullish intent from buyers defending support levels.
🔹 Price Action Signal:
Formation of higher lows.
Break of structure and close above previous highs.
Possible breakout pending above consolidation box.
📊 Conclusion:
DXY shows bullish potential as it builds a base around strong support. A confirmed breakout above the rectangle could fuel a rally toward 99.456. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles for entry. ✅
WHy is everyone Freaking out over the DXY !?!?!Here is a chart of the DXY. with a linear regression channel plotted over it. Yes, we are close to the bottom of the channel. But we are no where near an all time low. Far from it. The DXY may be due for a push, but even if it was to drop more it would not be that big of a deal relative to historical patterns.






















