ENERGY TRANSFER (MLP) BRIEF OVERLOOK AND CONSERVATIVE FORECASTThesis: I bought into ET @ $7.94 when the company was neck-deep in debt and its future didn't look promising. The key event that turned this company around was the recent storm in Texas that left a large population with no power. This was an incredibly profitable situation for ET as Texas was not connected to the US power grid, therefore Texans had to buy fuel from companies and they quickly paid down a ton of debt and came out of the quarter very profitable.
Key Dates:
March 2020 (Covid)
DAPL 6/29 (Remains open at least until an EPA assessment can be done, which takes lots of time hopefully.)
APR, MAY, JUN - Retail buying was taking place driving the price up to $11. Shortly after it trickled back to the high $9's I've noticed many institutional buys, and also notice ET being added into sector-specific ETFs and actively managed funds.
The overall dynamic of the shares outstanding indicates that retail investors do hold a large portion of common shares and even better than that, it seems like those common shareholders have been holding since the price was above $18 (large Vol -10 years). I mention this because a stock can increase 100% but what good is it if everybody bails and you're holding the bag? Long-term investors contribute to making this stock safer and less volatile.
This is not a swing trade. I published this to reflect a 6-month target but just to be clear I am bullish and this is a 3-5-year-old, at least. I expect a 30-40% return on the common stock but right now $15.50 is my conversation prediction for 1 year out. Disciplined investors will be handsomely rewarded here.
Ratings/Analyst Coverage - It goes without saying that you will not be successful if you just buy and sell based on another's recommendation. We all have goals and challenges we like to overcome, but it's important you do it yourself. You can tell by my chart that I'm no financial advisor, but I do have 10+ years of trading experience.
Happy Trading!
seekingalpha.com
