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EURUSD - Short - Pre ECB Thursday We still see EURUSD moving lower towards 1.09 but first it would have to break the resistance level at $1.102. We are confident it can do this as the dollar sustained gains over the week against the euro despite a weak non farm payroll number, coming in at 130K vs 160K expected. Furthermore, the ECB meeting on Thursday where the ECB is expected to cut rates from -0.4% to -0.5% and introduce additional stimulus could lead to further downside pressure for EURUSD.
Short
by KQMarkets
EUR/USD short term rallyAfter printing a new low near 1.0925, the Euro found enough buyers to recover above the 1.10 level and is now trading near the first resistance at 1.1040 which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the latest decline. Also, looking at the recent candles, the recovery doesn't seem to have ended but is also facing critical resistance near 1.1060 and a potential big stimulus package from the ECB, expected to be announced during its monetary policy on the 12th of September. It is worth noting the descending channel the pair is trading in, a potential support/resistance area to trade in. Good luck.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EURCAD Weekly Trendline Violated! Price Likely To Target 1.43500Have a look at the main weekly TF for EURCAD. The horizontal lines represents support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. The July's monthly candle closed below 1.47000 support and additionally the August's Candle formed a strong doji rejecting and closing below the 1.47000 support. This is a strong indication that the price would likely gather pace towards the next support present at 1.43500. Furthermore, the Longterm trendline on weekly and monthly charts was violated, Further suggesting a decline is on the cards! The chart above is Monthly TF charts of EURCAD indicating the LONG-TERM Trendline violation and monthly candle breaching and closing below the support. Fundamentally the EUR is bound for further incoming weakness as the ECB is struggling to hit their inflation target and the new incoming president has already suggested the rates could further go into negative territory in order to support the growth. I am already SHORTING the EURCHF, which has slight correlation to this pair and furthermore i am already SHORT on the USDCAD. Due to these factors and i am not willing to take this trade because it would increase my risk exposure and violate rules of trading. For those of you who would like to take this pair SHORT, you could do this at your own risk with the target of 1.43500 and RR of 1:1. This trade in my view is a high probability trade with many confluence factors in favor of us. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Fite for Brexit: getting ready for hot SeptemberBe concern working with the pound. Boris Johnson's decision to shut down parliament for five weeks in order ... controversial plan to suspend the UK's parliament for five weeks. The Queen has approved an order to prorogue the UK Parliament. Boris Johnson seriously set his sights on leaving without a deal. Of course, there is a chance that this is just his attempt to strengthen his position in negotiations with the EU, well knowing Johnson’s temperament, we no longer exclude the most radical scenarios. The first week of September may be decisive for Brexit: time the opposition has to pass a law that does not allow an exit without a deal. Among other options - a vote of no confidence in the government, the dissolution of the Parliament and early elections. So, it will not be boring, pound volatility in September are guaranteed. For intraday trading, this is an opportunity to make money trading with pound pairs. So we will continue to monitor the development of events and will keep our readers informed of what is happening. Yesterday's US GDP data came out in line with forecasts: + 2.0% y / y. This means that the data has been revised downward. Statistics on the US labor market will be published, in particular, data on the NFP will be published next weak, a serious driver for a powerful dollar movement is not expected. Extremely weak figures were published on consumer inflation in Germany. In general, the concerns about one of the best Eurozone economy raises. Based on this, yesterday’s comments by the future head of the ECB, Michel Lagarde, that the ECB has tools to deal with the recession and should be prepared to use them if it is necessary. Against this background, we will continue to recommend avoiding buying euros against anything. But sales of it still seems to be a good trading idea. As for the trade war. The markets did not understand whether Trump was called from China or not. New tariffs for goods from China come into force on Monday. And this means that the trade war is not over. However, in September, the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington so the chance to stop still exists. We will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Moreover, safe-haven assets today are something that worth to buy.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
1
Dollar fails Powell’s test, China and Trump keep tensionsFor the whole last week we were waiting for a symposium in Jackson Hole to be held (The Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. ). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday was the main event. The markets were waiting for the “official” confirmation of monetary easing by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks. Attention focused on a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for news on whether it will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the world's largest economy. But at the same time, he did not specify a time limit. China intends to raise tariffs on US imported goods total $ 75 billion the decision was made in response to the USA. Besides, the import tax on American cars and auto parts will be increased. Trump, of course, reacted extremely nervously to such actions by China, promising to take retaliatory measures. China has a deserved reputation for intellectual property theft. On Friday, Trump estimated China robs the US of “hundreds of billions” a year in ideas. So there is a reason to believe that a very hot and hectic week awaits us. In this light, buying safe-haven assets seems like a good trading idea. But once again we note that the choice of the entry point is extremely important. The upcoming week promises to be calm. Attention should be paid only on the US GDP. Otherwise, the attention will be focused on the confrontation between the USA and China, as well as the Fed. Our trading preferences this week: selling the dollar, finding points for buying gold and the Japanese yen, buying the British pound and selling the Russian ruble. Also, oil sales seem appropriate.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Euro suffers, pound is growing, & dollar waits for PowellPowell speaks in Jackson Hole that is what everybody is waiting for. Fed minutes from the meeting also showed the lack of unity among the Fed members. That might lead to the fact that the rate can be either lowered in September or left unchanged. That is complete uncertainty. That is why Powell's comments are that important. Markets still believe in the rates cut, and afraid to sell the dollar without any existing facts. So Powell’s “pigeon” comments are capable of setting off dollar selling in the foreign exchange market. Therefore we recommend the short dollar. However - if Powell does not give any clear comments, markets may perceive this as the Fed’s unwillingness to cut the rates in September, which could lead to a wave of dollar purchase Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone and the United States came out. As for the data from Europe on the one hand, the Eurozone Composite PMI was better than expected above 50, as was the PMI in the services sector. On the other hand, data from Germany showed a sharp deterioration in the situation, and at the highest pace over the past 6 years: respondents are expecting production to decline in the foreseeable future. The United States also upset. PMI indices came out much worse than expected, and the manufacturing index generally came out below 50, which indicates a reduction in business activity in the United States. The publication of the last ECB meeting minutes showed that Central Bank officials at their meeting on July 25 discussed the benefits of combining two measures to lower interest rates and bond purchases. Recall that the ECB left its policy unchanged last month, but made it clear that it was preparing to reduce its already negative rate and resume buying bonds in September. So, the euro does not look like the best thing to buy. We recall our recommendation to sell the euro against the pound. Moreover, Johnson is stepping up towards agreeing with the EU. Even though Europe in every possible way welcomes his efforts: in particular, Merkel believes that a new deal with Great Britain is possible before the end of October. In general, the Big Seven Conference may be a kind of breakthrough in the stalemate with Brexit. We have strengthened our desire to buy the pound, especially at extremely attractive current prices.
Long
by Trade24Fx
An important movement on Eur/UsdThe FOCM will begin Wednesday evening to make the market and investors understand the next moves for the short and medium term and the ECB will follow the next day. It is very likely that the euro will come out even more devalued at the end of these two days. As the European Central Bank will almost certainly show a weak economic and political scenario in the eurozone. Talking about new money injections and further postponements of a rate hike; while the FED should ensure another rate cut within the year, but then continue with its restrictive economic policy. Because an important movement on Eur/Usd we open another long position from here to close by Wednesday evening to then close all the bullish positions and reposition ourselves short. The target is the 1.119 resistance.
Long
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD Short Crucial Week FED minutes/ Jackson HoleEURUSD has been dropping since our last analysis on the 12.08 and we are at a crucial stage if we can break the $1.10959 support level we expect further downside. However, this is a very a important stage for the currency pair as FED Minutes on Wednesday and Chairman Powell's comments at Jackson Hole will likely lead to significant volatility and price action. This is particularly the case if the FED changes it's rhetoric on further interest rate cuts in the near term and indicates there will be further rate cuts.
Short
by KQMarkets