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The Day Ahead - The US CPI and ECB decision to drive volatilityKey Data Releases US August CPI – The main event for markets. A hotter print would reinforce Fed caution, pushing yields higher and supporting USD, while a softer read could boost rate-cut bets and equities. US Federal Budget Balance & Q2 Household Net Worth – Secondary impact; may shape fiscal outlook and consumer sentiment but unlikely to move markets in the short term. US Initial Jobless Claims – Weekly labor market pulse; any sustained uptick would add to growth slowdown concerns. UK RICS House Price Balance (Aug) – Watch for further weakness; soft housing data pressures GBP. Japan PPI (Aug) – Input cost trends; limited direct market impact unless a sharp surprise fuels BoJ speculation. Germany Current Account (Jul) – Trade flow insights; marginal impact on EUR compared to ECB decision. Central Banks ECB Policy Decision – The day’s other major event. Markets will watch whether the ECB signals another cut path or remains cautious. Clear dovish language could weigh on EUR, while a hold with hawkish tone could support it. Corporate Earnings Adobe – A bellwether for AI and software demand; results may influence tech sentiment. Kroger – Consumer spending barometer; insights into US consumer resilience amid sticky inflation. Auctions US 30-Year Bond Auction – Key test of demand for long-duration Treasuries. A weak auction could push yields higher, weighing on equities. Strong demand would ease financial conditions. Market Impact Summary: The US CPI and ECB decision will dominate global trading, setting tone for bonds, FX, and equities. Jobless claims and earnings offer supporting context, while the 30-yr auction will be critical for Treasury market direction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Data US August PPI, July wholesale trade sales → Inflation pressures in focus ahead of CPI; could sway Fed rate expectations. China August CPI & PPI → Deflationary trends monitored for signs of demand weakness; global risk sentiment sensitive. Italy July industrial production → Eurozone growth pulse check. Sweden July GDP indicator, Denmark & Norway August CPI → Regional inflation and growth signals, relevant for Riksbank/Norges Bank stance. Earnings Inditex → Retail bellwether; results offer read-through for European consumer demand. Auctions US 10-yr Notes → Key test for demand in Treasuries; could influence yields and curve dynamics. Other EU Commission President von der Leyen – State of the Union → Policy guidance on fiscal, energy, and industrial priorities; potential impact on EUR and EU equities. Market Implications: Inflation data (US/China, Nordics) sets tone for rates and bond yields. US 10-yr auction could be pivotal for Treasury market sentiment. Inditex earnings a gauge for retail/consumer sector resilience. EU policy speech may drive EUR and EU equity sectors depending on fiscal/industrial policy stance. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data: US August NFIB small business optimism Japan August M2, M3, machine tool orders France July industrial production Central Banks: ECB: Nagel, Villeroy speaking BoE: Breeden speaking Earnings: Oracle Synopsis Auctions: US 3-yr Notes Focus points: US small business sentiment for growth/inflation signals, ECB/BoE speakers for rate guidance, Oracle earnings as tech sentiment driver, and US 3-yr auction for bond market tone. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Daily Brief – Monday, Sept 8 US: NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations (Aug), consumer credit (Jul) China: Aug trade balance Japan: Aug Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, Jul current account & trade balance Germany: Jul industrial production, trade balance ECB: Villeroy speaks Politics: France confidence vote, Norway parliamentary election Market Watch: Data focus on global trade flows (China, Germany, Japan) and inflation expectations (US). Political risk from France and Norway could add headline volatility. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead - US Employment Friday September 5 Data: US August jobs report, UK July retail sales, Japan July labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany July factory orders, France July trade balance, current account balance, Italy July retail sales, Canada August jobs report Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data: US August ADP report, ISM services, July trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK August new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany August construction PMI, Eurozone July retail sales, Canada July international merchandise trade, Switzerland and Sweden August CPIs Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks, BoE's DMP survey Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Wednesday, September 3, 2025 – Economic and Earnings Summary Economic Data Highlights Australia Q2 GDP Grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter Annual growth at 1.8%, boosted by household spending United States (August) Manufacturing PMI at 48.7 (still contracting) New orders rose to 51.4 (first expansion in 7 months) Productivity up 2.4%, unit labor costs up 1.6% Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 50.7, first expansion since early 2022 Strong output and new orders United Kingdom (August) Services PMI at 53.6 (expansion) Manufacturing PMI at 47.3 (contraction) Canada Manufacturing PMI at 48.3, slight improvement Still in contraction territory Central Bank Updates Fed Beige Book, ECB’s Lagarde, and BoE officials scheduled to speak No major central bank announcements reported today Key updates expected tomorrow Earnings Reports (Today) Salesforce (CRM) Revenue: 9.33 billion dollars, up 8 percent year-over-year Strong AI bookings Expected EPS: 2.78 dollars GitLab (GTLB) Revenue: 182 million dollars, up 31 percent High customer retention and AI tool growth Expected EPS: 0.16 dollars Dollar Tree (DLTR) Revenue expected: 4.47 billion dollars In transition after selling Family Dollar Focus on multi-price strategy and buybacks Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Revenue expected: 8.35 billion dollars Expected EPS: 0.42 dollars Figma First earnings report since IPO Revenue expected: 250 million dollars EPS expected: 0.09 dollars Stock has surged since IPO C3.ai (AI) Loss expected: EPS of negative 0.20 dollars Revenue expected: 94.5 million dollars Looking Ahead – Thursday, September 4 Key US data: JOLTS, factory orders, vehicle sales Speeches from central bank officials More earnings reports This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice. ___________________________________________________________________
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Economic Data: US ISM (August): Slight improvement, but still below 50 (contraction zone). US Construction (July): Down 0.3%, showing weaker building activity. Japan Monetary Base: Down 3.9% YoY, confirming ongoing tightening by the BoJ. Eurozone CPI (August): Around 2.2%, steady and near ECB’s target. Canada Manufacturing PMI: Still in contraction (last reading: 45.6). France Budget / Italy PPI: No new major updates. Central Banks: BoJ (Himino): Supports more rate hikes, but warns about global risks like US tariffs. Earnings Highlights: Zscaler (ZS): Revenue up 23% YoY to $648M, EPS $0.78 (beat). Strong guidance and AI-related demand. Stock up ~6%. Nio (NIO): Delivered 72,056 vehicles in Q2 (up 26% YoY). Delivery strong; watch earnings for margin clarity. Partners Group: No earnings released yet. Trading Takeaways: Zscaler (ZS): Positive momentum, strong fundamentals – bullish. Nio (NIO): Neutral until earnings; good growth, but profit focus needed. USD/JPY: Yen likely to weaken further with slow BoJ tightening. Eurozone inflation: Stable; ECB likely to stay on hold. US growth: Manufacturing remains soft; Fed likely to stay patient. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadFriday, Aug 29 – Key Events US: July PCE (core inflation focus), personal income/spending, advance goods trade, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, KC Fed services. Europe: Germany: Aug CPI (flash), unemployment, July retail sales, import prices. France: Aug CPI, July PPI, consumer spending, Q2 payrolls. Italy: Aug CPI. UK: Lloyds Business Barometer (Aug). Japan: Tokyo CPI (Aug), July jobs data, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, confidence. Canada: Q2 GDP. Sweden: Q2 GDP. Central banks: ECB July consumer expectations survey; VP Guindos speaks. Earnings: Alibaba, BYD. Market focus: US PCE - Fed pricing. Eurozone CPI flashes - ECB September outlook. Tokyo CPI - BoJ watch. Canada GDP - CAD, BoC path. Alibaba/BYD - China sentiment gauge. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data: Focus on US releases with July pending home sales, weekly jobless claims, and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity. In Europe, Italy publishes August sentiment indicators and June industrial sales, while the Eurozone releases July money supply (M3) and August economic confidence. Other highlights include EU27 new car registrations, Canada’s Q2 current account, and Switzerland’s Q2 GDP. Central Banks: Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Rehn, and BoJ’s Nakagawa are all scheduled to speak, alongside the ECB’s publication of its July meeting account. Earnings: A busy day with results from Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard, Affirm, Dollar General, and Delivery Hero. Auctions: US 7-year Note auction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadData: • China July industrial profits • Germany September GfK consumer confidence • Australia July CPI Central Banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks Earnings: Nvidia, Royal Bank of Canada, Crowdstrike, Meituan, Snowflake, Trip.com, Horizon Robotics, Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl’s Auctions: US 2-yr FRN, 5-yr Notes This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data: US: August Conference Board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing/business conditions, Dallas Fed services, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing, July durable goods orders, June FHFA house price index, Q2 house price purchase index Japan: July services PPI France: August consumer confidence Central Banks: Fed: Williams, Barkin speaking ECB: Villeroy speaking Earnings: Prudential, MongoDB, Okta Auctions: US 2-year Notes This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Markets will turn their attention to a handful of US activity indicators and Germany’s key business sentiment survey at the start of the week. US data: The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index will give a broad gauge of underlying economic momentum, followed later by new home sales, offering another read on the housing market after recent strength in starts and permits. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for August will provide an early look at conditions in the industrial sector, where regional Fed surveys have shown mixed signals. Germany: The August Ifo business climate survey is the main European release, closely watched for signs of improvement in corporate sentiment after weakness in manufacturing and lingering uncertainty around growth prospects. Central banks: Fed’s Logan is due to speak, with investors alert for any post-Jackson Hole commentary on the path of rates and the balance between still-elevated inflation and softening labor data. Earnings: PDD Holdings reports, with results likely to attract attention as a bellwether for Chinese consumer demand and the competitive landscape in e-commerce. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead - Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the key driverKey Data UK: Consumer confidence improved (–17 vs –19), helped by BoE rate cut. July retail sales delayed; surveys show mixed picture—fashion/discretionary strong, but overall retail still weak. Japan: Inflation eased to 3.1%, but core remains above 3% → BoJ still under pressure to tighten. France: Business confidence steady at 96; retail very weak, services softer, construction a bit better. Canada: Retail sales rebounded +1.6% in June after May’s drop. Fed / Jackson Hole Powell speaks today—markets looking for clues on September rate cut. Tone will drive trading: Dovish → risk-on rally (equities, bonds). Hawkish/cautious → risk-off move (yields up, stocks softer). Takeaway for traders: Mixed global data, but Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the key driver for today’s market direction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data releases: US: August PMIs, Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July leading index, existing home sales, initial jobless claims UK: August PMI, July public finances Eurozone / Major Economies: August PMIs (Eurozone, Germany, France, Japan, UK, US), Eurozone August consumer confidence, June construction output Canada: July industrial product and raw materials price indexes Norway: Q2 GDP Central banks: Jackson Hole symposium continues (through Aug 23) Earnings: Walmart, Workday Auctions: US 30-yr TIPS This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead China LPR (1y/5y): Signals PBoC stance; 5-yr guides mortgage rates/housing. UK July CPI/RPI + June House Prices: Key for BoE cut timing; watch core/services. Japan July Trade & June Core Machine Orders: Gauge external demand and capex. Germany July PPI: Eurozone disinflation pulse from the supply side. Denmark Q2 GDP: Nordic growth snapshot (spillovers to ECB outlook minor but directional). #Central banks FOMC minutes + Fed’s Waller/Bostic: Color on September/November path and balance-sheet tone. ECB’s Lagarde: Forward-guidance nuance ahead of autumn meetings. RBNZ & Riksbank decisions: Watch for “higher-for-longer” language vs early-cut signals. #Earnings (read-throughs) TJX, Target, Lowe’s: U.S. consumer health, trade-down, and housing-linked spend. Analog Devices: Industrial/auto/AI edge demand; semi cycle timing. Estée Lauder: China travel retail recovery and margins. #Auctions US 20-yr Bonds: Term premium/liquidity check; tail/cover will steer long-end yields. #What to watch / market implications A soft UK CPI + calm FOMC minutes = risk-on, front-end rally. Sticky services CPI (UK) or firm Germany PPI = re-price ECB/BoE cuts, weigh on equities. RBNZ/Riksbank hawkish holds could nudge global front-ends higher. Retailer prints drive U.S. cyclical vs. defensives; ADI guides semis. Weak 20-yr auction → long-end selloff/steeper curve; strong take-up does the opposite. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadData: US July building permits and housing starts will give an updated read on the housing sector’s resilience amid higher rates. Italy June current account balance and ECB June current account provide insight into Eurozone trade and capital flows. Canada July CPI will be closely watched for inflation dynamics and Bank of Canada policy signals. Earnings: Home Depot reports, offering a key gauge of US consumer spending trends in housing and home improvement. Medtronic results will shed light on the health of the medical devices sector and global healthcare demand. Conclusion: The day’s focus is split between housing and inflation data, with US and Canadian releases driving expectations for monetary policy. Meanwhile, Home Depot and Medtronic earnings will test consumer and healthcare spending strength. Markets are likely to react most to inflation readings and any signs of cracks in housing demand. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead Data Releases: US: New York Fed services activity (Aug), NAHB housing market index Japan: June tertiary industry index Eurozone: June trade balance Canada: July housing starts, June international securities transactions Earnings: BHP Palo Alto Networks This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadKey Data Releases US (July): Retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, import & export price indexes. US (August): University of Michigan survey, Empire manufacturing index. US (June): Business inventories, total net TIC flows. China (July): Retail sales, industrial production, home prices, property investment. Japan: Q2 GDP, June capacity utilisation. Canada: July existing home sales, June manufacturing sales. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
TRADE PLAN: Bulls vs BearsHello, fellow traders! We've created a 2-scenario trade plan based on the most recent technical, macro, and trader sentiment using 4 hour charts - because we love you! 1. BULLISH SCENARIO — rebound from support Price is oversold on the 4H RSI and nearing key support (146.4–147.0). Fed easing expectations are already priced in, so any upside surprise in U.S. data, or lack of follow-through selling, could trigger a corrective rally. TRADE PLAN: Entry: 146.40–147.00 (look for a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence confirmation) Stop: Below 146.00 (clear break under the next support cluster) Target 1 (Partial trade plan): 147.80 (local resistance) Target 2 (Full trade plan): 148.50 (Aug 12 high) SUPPORT LEVELS: Support 1: 146.40–147.00 Support 2: 146.00 RESISTANCE LEVELS: Resistance 1: 147.80 Resistance 2: 148.50 RISK/REWARD: ~1:2 from midpoint entry (146.70), risking 70 pips for 140 pips potential. __________________________________________________ 2. BEARISH SCENARIO — continuation lower The pair remains in a short-term 4H downtrend after failing above 148.5. Softer U.S. CPI reinforced Fed cut odds, while Japan’s inflation remains >2% with a mildly hawkish BoJ bias — supportive for yen strength. TRADE PLAN: Entry: 147.80–148.00 (sell into a retest of broken support / 4H resistance) Stop: Above 148.50 (invalidated if breakout above Aug 12 high) Target 1 (Partial TP): 147.00 (intraday swing low area) Target 2 (Full TP): 146.00 (deeper swing support) RESISTANCE LEVELS: Resistance 1: 147.80 Resistance 2: 148.50 SUPPORT LEVELS: Support 1: 147.00 Support 2: 146.00 Support 3: 145.80 RISK/REWARD: ~1:2.5 from midpoint entry (147.90), risking 60 pips for 150 pips potential. _________________________________________ PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT (based on our most current data) Bearish case is slightly more probable near-term because macro backdrop favors JPY (BoJ gradually normalizing, U.S. rate cut expectations rising). Price action still in 4H downswing with momentum (MACD) negative and resistance overhead. CFTC data shows yen longs reduced — less chance of a squeeze higher on short-covering. That said, oversold conditions mean bullish bounces are possible, but likely corrective rather than trend-changing unless U.S. data turns hawkish again. We hope you found our analysis helpful and thank you for reading. Follow us here on TradingView for more up to date analysis. Happy trading! __________________________________________ DISCLAIMER: Our analysis is not 100% absolute. We are not responsible for any losses incurred. Please be sure to do your own research before investing or trading.
by financetrance
The Day Ahead Economic Data Japan: Producer prices rose 2.6% YoY (slowest in a year), machine tool orders up 3.6% YoY thanks to foreign demand. Germany: Wholesale prices –0.1% MoM, +0.5% YoY. Central Banks Fed’s Barkin: Says consumers are key to inflation and jobs trends; rates seen as appropriate. Goolsbee & Bostic: Speaking later today/week. Earnings Highlights Tencent: Results due; sentiment positive on low valuation. Cisco: Reports later today; modest growth expected, AI demand in focus. E.ON: H1 profit +13%, sales +5%; outlook confirmed, calls for better grid returns. Venture Global: Q2 revenue tripled to $3.1B; strong LNG growth. Straumann: Solid organic sales growth but FX hit profit; guidance unchanged. Vestas: Back to profit; revenue +14%, orders –44%; guidance steady. Coherent: Results due; AI networking driving growth. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day Ahead - Main focus US CPI Tuesday, 12 August – Key events Data: US: July CPI (main focus), NFIB small business optimism, federal budget balance, jobless claims change. UK: June average weekly earnings, unemployment rate. Japan: July M2, M3. Germany/Eurozone: August ZEW surveys, Germany June current account. Canada: June building permits. Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks. RBA: Cut cash rate by 25 bps to 3.60%. Earnings: CoreWeave – after market. Circle Internet Group – before market. On Holding – before market. CAVA – after market. Main watchpoints: US CPI will drive USD, bonds, and Fed rate-cut expectations. RBA cut highlights policy divergence. Earnings may move AI/cloud, crypto/payments, and consumer stocks. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation