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The Day Ahead data-heavy session aheadMarkets head into a data-heavy session with the focus on US activity and trade, Eurozone confidence, and a Riksbank rate decision, all landing alongside a blockbuster earnings slate. Macro & Data In the US, initial jobless claims will be the key real-time read on labour market momentum, while factory orders, wholesale sales, and the November trade balance help shape Q4 growth tracking. Europe sees a confidence check via Eurozone January economic sentiment and December M3, with Italy’s industrial sales and wages adding colour on domestic demand. Japan’s consumer confidence offers a read on household sentiment, while Canada’s trade data and Sweden’s Q4 GDP indicator round out the global picture. Central Banks Riksbank decision is the headline risk in Europe, with markets watching tone and guidance as closely as the rate call itself. ECB’s Cipollone speaking may add nuance on the policy outlook, especially around financial conditions and transmission. Earnings A mega-cap and cyclicals-heavy lineup: Apple will dominate sentiment, while Visa and Mastercard give a pulse on global spending. Semis are in focus with Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, KLA, and Keyence. Industrials and defensives feature strongly (Caterpillar, Honeywell, ABB, Lockheed Martin, Parker-Hannifin), alongside healthcare (Roche, Thermo Fisher, Stryker, Sanofi). Financials include Blackstone, ING, Lloyds, with consumer/media names like Comcast and Altria also reporting. Rates & Supply US 7-year Treasury auction will test demand amid ongoing volatility in the belly of the curve. Bottom line: Expect earnings-driven equity moves, with rates and FX sensitive to US jobs data and the Riksbank. Volatility could pick up into the US close as Apple reports. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
$XOM breaking ATHFor the past weeks, I been persistent in tracking NYSE:XOM forecast from different bank corporation and other firms. I have noticed it has been breaking the resistance level for the past weeks. Even if you look into the past month, the stock has increased approximately $18-$20. The way I view this opportunity is by breaking it down from technical analysis, price target trends, Crude Oil Futures, Weather Report, and Major Economical & Geopolitical tensions. Due to these reasons, it gives me enough confidence to purchase multiple call options at a strike price of $135 with an expiration date of 1/30. The goal is to sell the contracts before they release their earning reports. Many investors would say to "HOLLLLLLDDD" but I rather play it safe and take the profits before it crashes due to uncertainty. The Q4 FY2025 estimated EPS (Earnings per share) is predicted to be $1.68 which is lower than the previous Q3 earnings at $1.88. $EXOM has a history of beating expectations by $0.10 - $0.20 EPS. Therefore, the EPS may hit a target between $1.78 - $1.88 this Friday before market opens. Additionally, it has been stated from other analyst that NYSE:XOM revenue estimates hover around $82.85 billion which is less than Q3 Revenue at $85.29 billion. I can positively state that this company is a long-term growth for continuously being the major global refiner, its largest facility is the Beaumont Refinery in Texas. The forecast estimates per share and revenue prediction shouldn't phase any investor since this stock isn't dropping any time soon. Use this information as you wish. See you at the top!
NYSE:XOM
by ldircio2015
1
The Day Ahead Markets face a busy end to the week with key inflation and growth data plus major US earnings. Focus is on Tokyo CPI and Japanese activity data for BoJ signals, Eurozone, Germany, France and Italy Q4 GDP for the European growth outlook, and US December PPI plus Chicago PMI for inflation and activity trends. UK business confidence and credit data add a sentiment check, while Canada GDP rounds out North America. Fed’s Musalem speaks and the ECB releases its consumer expectations survey. On earnings, Exxon, Chevron, American Express, Verizon, Regeneron and Colgate-Palmolive headline, with guidance likely more market-moving than results. Key theme: inflation signals and European growth momentum, with earnings driving sector moves into the weekly close. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Federal Reserve decisionMarkets head into a heavy catalyst day with the focus firmly on central bank decisions and a packed earnings calendar. In Europe, Germany’s February GfK consumer confidence showed a modest improvement, suggesting sentiment is stabilising but remains deeply negative. Italy’s January economic sentiment data offers another read on fragile domestic demand across the euro area. ECB speakers Elderson and Schnabel are on the agenda, with any commentary on inflation persistence or the pace of future easing watched closely by rates and FX markets. In Asia-Pacific, Australia’s Q4 CPI came in firmer than expected, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are proving sticky. This keeps RBA tightening risk alive and has supported the AUD, while regional rates remain sensitive to global policy signals. The Bank of Japan releases minutes from its December meeting, with markets scanning for any shift in tone on policy normalisation. The main event is the Federal Reserve decision. Rates are widely expected to be held steady, leaving markets focused on the statement and press conference for guidance on the timing and pace of future cuts. Any pushback against easing expectations could pressure equities and support the dollar. The Bank of Canada also announces policy, with a hold expected, though CAD volatility is likely around the tone of the outlook. On the corporate side, it is one of the busiest earnings days of the season. Big tech results from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla sit alongside key semiconductor names such as ASML and Lam Research. These reports are likely to set the tone for broader risk sentiment, particularly in tech and cyclical sectors. Industrials and defensives are also in focus with results from GE Vernova, Danaher, General Dynamics and others. In rates markets, attention also turns to the US 2-year FRN auction, which may influence short-end Treasury pricing ahead of and after the Fed decision. Overall, today’s trading is likely to be volatile, with policy guidance and mega-cap earnings driving direction across equities, FX and rates. Positioning remains cautious into the Fed, with scope for sharp moves if central bank communication or earnings surprise expectations. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day AheadMarkets head into the session with a busy macro and earnings calendar, keeping sentiment finely balanced. In the US, attention is on January Conference Board consumer confidence for clues on household demand, alongside regional Fed surveys (Dallas services, Richmond manufacturing and business conditions) that will help shape expectations around growth momentum. The FHFA house price index adds another data point on housing resilience. Overnight, China’s December industrial profits will be watched for confirmation that stimulus is gaining traction, while France consumer confidence and EU new car registrations provide insight into the health of European demand. On the central bank front, comments from ECB’s Nagel could influence rate expectations at the margin. Earnings are a major driver today, with heavyweight reports from LVMH, UnitedHealth, Boeing, Texas Instruments, UPS, GM and RTX, among others, offering a read-through on global demand, margins and guidance. In rates, a US 5-year note auction will test appetite after recent yield volatility. Geopolitically, focus also turns to the EU–India summit, with any trade or strategic signals potentially impacting sentiment. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Markets start the week with a heavy focus on US activity and manufacturing data, alongside key European and Japanese indicators. In the US, attention centres on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and durable goods orders, which will offer insight into underlying growth momentum and business investment trends. Later, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey provides a timely read on regional factory activity and sentiment. From abroad, Japan’s services PPI will be watched for signs of ongoing cost pressures, while Germany’s Ifo survey remains a key barometer of business confidence in Europe’s largest economy. On the policy front, comments from ECB’s Nagel and Kocher may influence rate expectations, particularly if inflation or growth risks are emphasised. In corporate news, earnings from FANUC, Ryanair, and Epiroc will give insight into global industrial demand, travel trends, and capital spending. Finally, the US 2-year Treasury note auction could be market-moving, as it provides a real-time gauge of demand at the front end of the yield curve and sensitivity to near-term Fed policy expectations. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead global January PMI releases Markets head into Friday with macro risk firmly in focus, as a dense slate of global January PMI releases coincides with key central bank signals and a light but notable earnings calendar. Macro / Data Flash PMIs across the US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone will set the tone for risk, offering the clearest read yet on whether the early-year growth slowdown is stabilising or deepening. Any upside surprise in services would likely support equities and push yields higher, while weak manufacturing prints would reinforce the defensive narrative. In the US, Kansas City Fed services activity adds a regional read to the PMI picture. The UK sees GfK consumer confidence and December retail sales, key for gauging whether higher rates are finally biting into household demand. France business confidence and Canada November retail sales round out the data, with CAD-sensitive assets watching for confirmation of soft consumption trends. Central Banks The Bank of Japan decision is the main event. Markets remain alert to any shift in guidance around yield control or policy normalisation; even subtle tweaks could drive sharp moves in JPY, JGBs and global rates. ECB President Lagarde and BoE’s Greene speaking will be parsed for confirmation that policy remains restrictive, but with growing sensitivity to downside growth risks. Earnings SLB (Schlumberger) will be watched as a bellwether for global energy capex and oilfield services demand. Hyundai Motor provides insight into global auto demand, EV pricing pressure and China-related weakness. Trading Takeaway Today is about macro confirmation. PMIs and the BoJ will likely dominate price action, with FX and rates leading and equities reacting second-order. Expect higher volatility around the BoJ and PMI releases, with risk assets leaning on whether the data argue for resilience—or reinforce the late-cycle slowdown narrative. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Today’s focus is firmly on inflation and policy signals across regions. In the US, backdated November and October PCE data, alongside personal income and spending, will be key for reassessing the Fed’s inflation trajectory, while initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index provide a timely read on labour market and regional activity momentum. In Europe, UK December public finances will shape near-term fiscal and gilt supply expectations, while Eurozone January consumer confidence offers a pulse check on demand at the start of the year. Japan’s December national CPI is the main Asia highlight, with upside risks keeping the BoJ normalisation narrative alive, alongside Australia’s December labour force survey and New Zealand Q4 CPI, both important for local rate path pricing. Central bank attention turns to the ECB’s account of its December meeting for clues on the internal balance between caution and easing, while Norges Bank’s decision is expected to stay on hold but with guidance closely scrutinised. Earnings are heavy and broad-based, led by Procter & Gamble, General Electric and Intel, with results from healthcare, financials, industrials and materials likely to drive sector rotation. The US 10-year TIPS auction rounds out the day, providing a read on real yield demand and inflation hedging appetite. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Trump goes to DavosMarkets will be guided by a heavy macro and event calendar, with inflation data, central bank speakers and a key US Treasury auction all in focus. In the UK, December CPI, RPI and PPI data will be closely watched for confirmation that disinflation is resuming after recent upside surprises, with implications for near-term BoE rate expectations and GBP sensitivity. In the US, December leading indicators and pending home sales, alongside revised construction spending, should offer insight into the momentum of domestic demand as markets remain highly rate-driven. Japan’s December trade balance and European data including French retail sales add to the global growth read-across, while Canada’s industrial and raw materials price indices will be monitored for upstream inflation pressures. Central bank commentary from ECB President Lagarde, alongside Nagel and Villeroy, may shape euro rates and FX, particularly around the timing and pace of prospective ECB easing. Earnings from Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab, Halliburton and Disco will provide sector-specific signals, with financials and energy in focus, while Lynas Rare Earths may influence sentiment around critical minerals and China-linked supply chains. In rates, attention turns to the $13bn reopening of the US 20-year Treasury, following recent volatility in long-end yields, with auction demand a potential catalyst for broader curve moves. Finally, the US Supreme Court hearing arguments in the Lisa Cook case represents a background risk for Fed independence, which could resurface as a market theme if headlines intensify. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead A busy macro day with rate and labour signals across major economies. In the US, attention is on January Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity for clues on services momentum. China sets its 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, key for policy easing expectations and property support. The UK releases November labour market data, with average weekly earnings and unemployment watched closely for wage inflation trends, alongside December jobless claims. In Europe, Germany’s December PPI and January ZEW survey will gauge pipeline inflation and sentiment, while Italy and the ECB publish November current account balances. Eurozone January ZEW and November construction output round out the data. ECB’s Nagel speaks, potentially shaping rate-cut timing expectations. Earnings highlights include Netflix, Interactive Brokers, US Bancorp, DR Horton and United Airlines, with results likely to drive sector-specific moves. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. DayWith US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, liquidity will be thinner and price action more subdued, placing greater emphasis on Asia and Europe-led moves. The main focus is on China’s Q4 GDP and December activity data (retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and home prices). These releases will shape sentiment toward global growth, commodities, and cyclical equities. Any upside surprise could support Asian equities, industrial metals, and China-linked FX, while weaker outcomes would reinforce concerns around China’s recovery and weigh on risk appetite. In Japan, November capacity utilisation will be watched for signals on industrial momentum, though market impact is likely modest unless the data meaningfully diverges from expectations. Canada’s December CPI is the key Western data point of the day. It will influence near-term BoC expectations, particularly around the timing and pace of rate cuts. A softer print would reinforce a dovish bias and pressure the CAD, while upside inflation risks could see rates and the currency find support. The BoC Q4 Business Outlook Survey will add colour on pricing power, wage pressures, and demand conditions. In Europe, attention turns to the Eurogroup’s nomination for ECB Vice President, which could have marginal impact on EUR sentiment depending on the perceived policy stance of the candidate. Overall, expect range-bound trading due to the US holiday, with China data and Canadian inflation setting the tone for regional moves and early-week positioning. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Data US December industrial production & capacity utilisation: Gauges momentum in the manufacturing sector and overall slack in the economy; relevant for growth and inflation expectations. January New York Fed services business activity: Early read on services-sector conditions heading into the new year. NAHB housing market index (January): Indicator of US homebuilder sentiment; watched for signals on housing demand amid interest-rate uncertainty. Canada December housing starts: Insight into Canadian housing activity and construction trends. US November international securities transactions (TIC): Shows foreign demand for US assets, relevant for USD funding and Treasury market dynamics. Central Banks Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Markets will watch closely for guidance on inflation progress, labour-market balance, and any hints on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Earnings are a major catalystMarkets focus on a heavy US macro and earnings slate. In the US, regional manufacturing surveys (Empire and Philly Fed) will give an early read on January activity after recent mixed data, while jobless claims will be watched for any renewed softening in the labour market. Import/export prices and TIC flows add colour on inflation pressures and capital flows. Fed speakers Bostic and Barkin could influence rates if they lean on the timing of cuts or push back against easing expectations. In Europe, attention is on Eurozone industrial production and trade, alongside Germany wholesale prices for pipeline inflation signals. The ECB economic bulletin may reinforce a cautious stance. In the UK, RICS house prices and monthly GDP will be key for growth momentum, with BoE credit conditions surveys informing the domestic demand outlook. Canada data (existing home sales and manufacturing sales) will be relevant for housing and growth trends. Earnings are a major catalyst: TSMC’s results and guidance will be critical for the global semiconductor cycle and AI-related demand. In US financials, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will shape sentiment around capital markets activity, asset flows, and trading revenues after recent weakness in bank shares. Overall, expect rates sensitivity to data and Fed commentary, with equities driven by earnings reactions—particularly tech and financials. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Expect event-driven volatilityKey Data US: November PPI and retail sales are the main macro focus, shaping near-term inflation and growth expectations. Existing home sales, business inventories and the Q3 current account add colour on housing and demand but are secondary unless there is a major surprise. Asia: China December trade balance will be watched for signs of external demand momentum, while Japan’s PPI and machine tool orders give insight into inflation pressures and capex trends. Central Banks Fed: Heavy speaker lineup plus the Beige Book. Markets will be alert to any pushback against rate-cut expectations or commentary on financial conditions and inflation persistence. Beige Book tone on consumer demand, labour markets and pricing will be key. ECB: Guindos’ comments may influence EUR if he signals concern on growth or inflation dynamics. BoE: Taylor and Ramsden could move GBP if they lean more clearly dovish or hawkish on the policy outlook. Earnings US banks (Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo): Focus on net interest income trends, loan growth, credit quality and guidance. Results will set the tone for the broader financial sector and could spill over into overall equity sentiment. Market Takeaway Expect event-driven volatility, led by US data and bank earnings. Rates and USD sensitive to PPI/retail sales and Fed commentary. Equities hinge on whether bank earnings and guidance reassure on credit and growth. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US December CPI Markets will be dominated by US December CPI, the key release for rates and risk sentiment. A softer-than-expected print would reinforce expectations for Fed easing later in the year, supporting equities and pressuring the dollar and yields, while an upside surprise would likely revive rate volatility, lift Treasury yields and weigh on risk assets. US NFIB small business optimism will be watched for evidence of how higher rates and political uncertainty are affecting domestic sentiment, while the federal budget balance is more background noise unless there is a major surprise. October new home sales are backward-looking but can still influence housing-related stocks if revisions are large. In Japan, the Economy Watchers survey alongside M2 and M3 money supply data will be monitored for clues on domestic demand and liquidity conditions, with implications for JPY positioning if the data materially shifts BoJ expectations. Canadian building permits will be relevant for CAD and rate expectations, particularly after recent sensitivity to housing indicators. From central banks, remarks from Fed’s Musalem and Barkin will be parsed through the lens of the CPI outcome—any pushback against early easing could amplify post-data moves. ECB’s Kocher may add colour on the timing of ECB cuts, with EUR rates sensitive to any hawkish or dovish nuance. The US bank earnings kick off in earnest with JPMorgan and BNY Mellon, setting the tone for the broader financial sector via commentary on credit quality, net interest income and capital markets activity. Delta Air Lines results will give insight into consumer demand and pricing power in travel. Finally, the US 30-year Treasury auction will be a key test of long-end demand. Weak take-up could steepen the curve and add pressure to equities post-CPI, while strong demand would help cap yields and support risk sentiment into the close. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Markets face a relatively light but potentially market-moving start to the week. In Asia, Japan’s December bank lending and November balance of payments data will be watched for signs of domestic demand strength and external balance trends. In Europe, Germany’s November current account balance will be a key indicator of euro area trade dynamics, while Denmark’s December CPI may offer fresh insight into Nordic inflation pressures. Central bank commentary will be the main driver. In the US, Fed speakers Bostic, Barkin and Williams are likely to reinforce the message of data dependence, with markets alert to any guidance on the timing and pace of rate cuts. In Europe, remarks from ECB Vice President Guindos and France’s Villeroy will be scrutinised for confirmation that inflation is easing in line with expectations and for clues on how soon policy easing could begin. In rates markets, US Treasury auctions of 3-year and 10-year notes will test demand at current yield levels and could influence broader risk sentiment, particularly if bid-to-cover ratios or tails surprise. Overall, trading may remain headline-driven, with central bank rhetoric and auction outcomes shaping intraday moves. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
How the Week Ahead in US Data Can Move Stocks and Crypto🧾 CPI & Core CPI – Inflation Check - CPI: Overall inflation – how fast everyday prices rise. - Core CPI: Same thing but without food and energy, so it shows the “under the hood” trend that central banks watch closely. If the numbers match expectations: - Stocks and crypto usually don’t react much. - The market keeps its current view about rate cuts, so price moves tend to be small. If inflation is higher than expected (hot print): - Stocks: Often drop because traders fear fewer or later rate cuts. Growth and tech can get hit hardest. - Crypto: Can sell off too, since tighter policy means less liquidity and more pressure on risk assets like BTC and ETH. If inflation is lower than expected (cool print): - Stocks: Usually bounce as markets price in earlier or bigger cuts. - Crypto: Tends to like this as well; easier policy and “risk‑on” sentiment are supportive. 🏭 Core PPI – Producer Costs - Core PPI: Inflation for businesses (factories, suppliers), excluding food and energy. - It’s important because it can lead future CPI – if producer costs rise, consumer prices may follow. As expected: - Usually a small reaction. - It confirms the current inflation trend and Fed outlook. Higher than expected: - Stocks: Negative bias, markets worry that CPI will re‑accelerate and the Fed might stay hawkish. - Crypto: Can feel pressure if traders think this will lead to hot CPI and fewer cuts. Lower than expected: - Stocks: Mildly positive – less pressure on future CPI and policy. - Crypto: Generally supportive, especially if it fits a bigger “disinflation + cuts coming” story. 👷 Jobless Claims – Health of the Labor Market - Initial jobless claims: New people filing for unemployment each week – a fast signal of how strong or weak the job market is. In line with expectations: - Stocks: Neutral to slightly positive; supports a “soft landing” view (economy slowing but not crashing). - Crypto: Usually small impact; macro backdrop is seen as unchanged. Higher than expected (more people losing jobs): - Stocks: - Slightly higher claims → may help risk assets if markets think it pushes the Fed toward earlier cuts. - Much higher claims → raises recession fears, which can hurt equities. - Crypto: - Mild weakness can be good (more easing). - Very bad data is risk‑off and can hit alts and high‑beta coins harder than BTC. Lower than expected (very strong labor market): - Stocks: Can be negative if inflation is still an issue, because a hot labor market gives the Fed no reason to cut soon. - Crypto: Similar logic – strong jobs + sticky inflation = higher rates for longer, which is usually a headwind for BTC/ETH in the short term. 🔑 Simple Big Picture Markets care most about surprises and how they change the path for interest rates: - Cool inflation + okay jobs: Good for risk assets → usually bullish stocks and crypto. - Sticky inflation + very strong jobs: Bad for rate‑cut hopes → often bearish for both, especially tech and speculative crypto. Short term, each release can spike volatility; longer term, it’s the overall trend in inflation and jobs that shapes the main bull or bear cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by FlorinCharts
27
The Day Ahead - December Jobs Report (NFP)Key Data to Watch United States December Jobs Report (NFP): The main event today. Payroll growth, unemployment rate, and especially average hourly earnings will shape expectations around the timing and pace of Fed rate cuts. University of Michigan January Survey: Focus on inflation expectations and consumer sentiment. October Housing Data: Building permits and housing starts will give insight into interest-rate sensitivity in the housing sector. China December CPI & PPI: Important for gauging deflationary pressures and the scope for further policy support. Weak readings could reinforce expectations of additional stimulus. Japan November Leading & Coincident Indices: Watched for confirmation of domestic momentum as markets assess the BoJ’s eventual exit path from ultra-loose policy. Europe Germany: November industrial production and trade balance – key for assessing the health of the euro area’s largest economy. France: November consumer spending and industrial production. Italy: November retail sales. Eurozone: November retail sales – relevant for growth and ECB easing expectations. Canada December Labour Force Survey: A critical input for BoC policy expectations, especially wage growth and participation. Norway December CPI: Important for Norges Bank rate outlook and NOK direction. Central Bank Speakers Fed’s Barkin: Likely to reinforce data-dependence; any comments on labour market cooling or inflation progress will be closely parsed. ECB’s Lane: Focus on inflation dynamics and the case for rate cuts later in the year; markets remain sensitive to any pushback against early easing. Market Implications Rates & FX: US jobs data is the dominant driver. A strong print could push Treasury yields higher and support the dollar; a weaker report would reinforce rate-cut pricing. Equities: Sensitive to bond moves post-NFP, with rate-sensitive sectors (tech, real estate) most exposed. Commodities: China inflation data may influence sentiment toward industrial metals and broader risk appetite. Bottom line: Expect a data-driven session, with the US payrolls report setting the tone globally into the weekend. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead The ECB’s November Consumer Expectations Survey shows that euro-area consumers view inflation as remaining elevated but stable. Perceived inflation over the past year was unchanged at 3.1%, while inflation expectations for the year ahead stayed at 2.8%. Longer-term expectations remain well anchored, with three-year expectations at 2.5% and five-year expectations at 2.2%, broadly consistent with the ECB’s target. Income growth expectations over the next 12 months were unchanged at a modest 1.2%. Consumers reported slightly stronger spending growth over the past year, but expectations for future spending eased, suggesting some caution as purchasing power pressures persist. Economic growth expectations deteriorated further, with households becoming more pessimistic about the outlook. However, expectations for the unemployment rate one year ahead edged slightly lower, indicating that consumers still see the labour market as relatively resilient despite weaker growth sentiment. In housing and credit, expectations for home price growth and mortgage rates over the next year declined modestly. Perceptions of tight credit conditions over the past year eased, while expectations for future credit tightness were broadly unchanged. For today’s trading, the key takeaway is that inflation expectations remain anchored and are not drifting higher, which supports the view of a cautious or on-hold ECB stance. At the same time, weaker growth sentiment reinforces a soft macro backdrop for the euro area, potentially weighing on risk assets while offering some support to bonds. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Markets will be guided by a heavy global data slate, with the US in focus as investors assess labour market momentum and services-sector strength. The ADP employment report and ISM services PMI will be key for rate expectations, while JOLTS and factory orders provide colour on labour demand and manufacturing conditions. In Europe, attention turns to inflation and activity signals, with Eurozone CPI the headline release alongside Italy CPI, France consumer confidence, Germany retail sales and construction PMI, and UK construction PMI, shaping expectations for ECB and BoE policy paths. Across Asia-Pacific, China’s foreign reserves will be watched for capital flow dynamics, Japan’s labour cash earnings for wage-driven inflation pressures, and Australia’s CPI for confirmation of disinflation trends. Overall, today’s trading tone will hinge on whether the data reinforce a soft-landing narrative or revive rate volatility, particularly through US services and labour indicators. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Today’s focus is on European inflation and activity data, with Germany and France December CPI prints likely to guide near-term ECB expectations. Softer inflation readings would reinforce a cautious, on-hold ECB narrative and could pressure the euro while supporting bonds. Italy’s December services PMI will give a read on domestic demand momentum; any further slowdown would add to the eurozone growth-cooling story. UK data on official reserves and new car registrations is expected to be low impact unless there is a surprise. From central banks, markets will watch remarks from Fed’s Barkin for clues on the timing and confidence around potential US rate cuts, which could influence USD direction and risk sentiment. ECB speakers Villeroy and Cipollone are expected to stick to a data-dependent, steady policy tone, with limited scope for hawkish surprises given muted inflation trends. Summary European inflation prints (GER/FR) and Italy services PMI are today’s headline data, skewing toward softness and likely to shape ECB expectations. investingLive Fed’s Barkin is the main U.S. speaker — markets will look for any divergence from a cautious stance. talkmarkets.com ECB speak (Villeroy, Cipollone) likely reinforces a status quo bias in European policy.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Monday, January 5, economic data due: US December ISM index, total vehicle sales, China December services PMI, UK November net consumer credit, M4, Japan's December monetary base Today’s Trading Summary Bullish signals UK credit and money supply showing strength -> may support GBP FX and UK equities. Chinese PMI prints slightly above the contraction threshold, giving some stability to EM/commodity markets. Bearish/soft signals US vehicle sales deceleration + mixed ISM manufacturing expectations -> risk-off tilt if data disappoints. The Japanese monetary base contraction reinforces the BoJ's tightening narrative, which is supportive for the JPY but potentially negative for risk assets. Key market drivers to watch today ISM manufacturing/service prints US vehicle sales SAAR China services PMI details BoJ / JPY reactions around monetary base dynamics This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Markets opened the new year on a positive noteMarkets opened the new year on a positive note, led by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks. US and European equity futures advanced, Samsung hit an all-time high, and optimism extended into crypto markets. Precious metals also gained, with gold and silver moving higher. In corporate news, BYD met its full-year sales target and likely overtook Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker in 2025, while Tesla is expected to report weaker vehicle sales in the second half of the year. On the policy and macro front, ECB President Christine Lagarde welcomed Bulgaria as the euro area’s 21st member, highlighting European cooperation. Trade developments were mixed: the US will ease some anti-dumping tariffs on Italian pasta and delay planned duties on certain furniture imports, while China criticised the EU’s carbon border levy and threatened countermeasures. The data calendar is light. Key releases to watch are December manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe, and the Euro Area November M3 money supply. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
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