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The Day Ahead - US trade balance, initial jobless claimsThursday brings a full slate of data releases, with attention on the US trade balance, wholesale sales, and initial jobless claims, which will help gauge the strength of US demand and labour conditions. The UK’s RICS house price balance, Italy’s Q3 unemployment rate, Canada’s merchandise trade, and Australia’s labour force survey round out a busy global data calendar. On the central bank front, the Swiss National Bank delivers its policy decision, and BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak. Corporate focus includes earnings from Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon, while the US Treasury will auction a 30-year bond (reopening). This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Friday, December 12 – Trading Summary It’s a relatively data-heavy end to the week, with several releases that could influence rate expectations and sector-specific sentiment: UK: October monthly GDP will be in focus, offering an updated read on growth momentum heading into year-end. Japan: October capacity utilisation data may guide views on industrial output and broader activity trends. Germany: October current account figures will provide insight into external balances and trade dynamics across the Eurozone. Canada: A run of October releases—including building permits, wholesale sales excluding petroleum, and the Q3 capacity utilisation rate—will give a fuller picture of demand and business conditions. Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Paulson and Hammack could attract attention after recent policy communication, while the BoE’s November Inflation Attitudes Survey may offer additional colour on UK inflation expectations. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Federal Reserve Rate decisionWednesday, December 10 – Key Events Preview Data Releases United States: Q3 Employment Cost Index; November Federal Budget Balance China: November CPI, PPI Italy: October Industrial Production Sweden: October GDP Indicator Denmark: November CPI Norway: November CPI Central Banks Federal Reserve: Rate decision Bank of Canada: Rate decision European Central Bank: President Lagarde speaks Earnings Oracle Adobe Synopsys Other UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Select Committee This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US inflation expectationsMonday, December 8 – Trading Day Outlook Key Data United States: NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (November). This is important for near-term Fed pricing. Any renewed increase would reinforce the recent pushback against expectations for aggressive rate cuts in 2025. China: Trade balance (November). This is a key global growth signal. Weak exports would pressure commodities and Asian equities, while stronger-than-expected data would support risk appetite and cyclicals. Japan: Economy Watchers Survey (November), M2 and M3 money supply. These will be watched for signs of domestic demand momentum and implications for ongoing BoJ normalisation. Germany: Industrial production (October). A key gauge of Eurozone manufacturing health. Another weak print would reinforce stagnation risks across the region. Central Bank Speakers ECB: Cipollone, Villeroy BoE: Taylor, Lombardelli Markets will watch for any resistance to early 2025 easing, which would support EUR and GBP yields and weigh on rate-sensitive equities. Treasury Auctions United States: 3-year Notes. A strong auction would help stabilise the front end of the curve, while weak demand could push short-term yields higher and pressure equity markets. Market Themes Rates remain the primary driver after the recent repricing of Fed cut expectations. Asia will react first to China trade data and Japan’s sentiment and liquidity indicators. European growth concerns may re-emerge with German industrial production. USD direction will hinge on inflation expectations and auction demand. Equities are likely to remain range-bound unless inflation expectations surprise materially. Tactical Bias Slight defensive tilt in equities until US inflation expectations are released. Front-end rates and FX (USD, JPY, EUR) likely to show the highest sensitivity. Commodities to react mainly to China trade data, particularly industrial metals and energy. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Markets head into the end of the week with a heavy US macro and labour focus, alongside several important European and Japanese data releases. Volatility could pick up into the US session. In the United States, the key releases are September PCE, personal income and personal spending. These will be critical for assessing the inflation trend and the strength of the US consumer, with direct implications for Fed rate expectations. The final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will also be closely watched, particularly inflation expectations. October consumer credit will provide additional insight into household borrowing behaviour. Together, these releases are likely to drive Treasury yields, the dollar and equity futures. In Europe, the focus will be on Germany’s October factory orders, a key gauge of industrial momentum in the eurozone. France releases October trade balance, current account and industrial production data, while Italy publishes October retail sales. Overall, the data will help shape the fragile European growth outlook and could influence the euro and cyclical equities. In Japan, October leading and coincident indexes will provide an update on economic momentum heading into year-end. In Canada, the November labour force survey is the main domestic highlight and is likely to generate volatility in the Canadian dollar given its importance for Bank of Canada policy expectations. From central banks, ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak, with any comments on inflation persistence or the timing of rate cuts closely monitored by rates and FX markets. Overall, traders will be watching whether today’s data confirms expectations for early Fed easing, whether the US consumer is slowing, and whether there are signs of stabilisation in Europe, with global bond yields and the US dollar likely to set the tone into the weekend. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Expect volatility around US claimsKey Data to Watch US: Initial jobless claims – key barometer for labour market cooling ahead of the December Fed meeting. UK: November new car registrations, construction PMI – insight into consumer demand and building activity. Japan: October household spending – traction of domestic consumption. Germany: November construction PMI – health of Europe’s largest construction sector. Eurozone: October retail sales – read on consumer momentum. Sweden: November CPI – important for Riksbank rate expectations. Central Bank Speakers Federal Reserve: Bowman ECB: Kocher, Cipollone, Lane BoE: Mann + BoE’s DMP survey Markets will be alert for any pushback against easing expectations, particularly from the Fed and ECB. Earnings to Watch Kroger (KR) – food inflation, pricing power, consumer resilience Dollar General (DG) – low-income consumer health, rural demand Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE) – enterprise IT spending, AI-related capex trends Trading Takeaway Expect volatility around US claims and Swedish CPI, with rate expectations driving FX and front-end yields. Retail-linked names could react to Kroger and DG results, while tech sentiment may hinge on HPE guidance. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead US ISM Services and the ADP employment reportKey data today includes US ISM Services and the ADP employment report, alongside US industrial production, import/export prices and capacity utilisation. China releases its November services PMI. In Europe, focus is on Italy’s services PMI, Eurozone October PPI, UK official reserves and Swiss November CPI. Canada reports Q3 labour productivity, while Australia publishes Q3 GDP. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane, plus BoE’s Mann. Major earnings are due from Salesforce, Snowflake, Inditex, Macy’s, Dollar Tree and Royal Bank of Canada. Geopolitical focus remains on the NATO foreign affairs ministers’ meeting. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Market Summary for Today – Tuesday, December 2 Key Data Releases US: November total vehicle sales – gives an update on consumer demand and economic momentum heading into year-end. Japan: November consumer confidence – useful read on domestic sentiment. France: October budget balance – may influence EU fiscal discussions. Italy: October unemployment rate and PPI – signals on labour market tightness and inflation pipeline pressures. Eurozone: November CPI (flash): Today’s major macro event. Markets will watch whether disinflation continues. October unemployment rate: Helps confirm whether labour markets remain resilient. Central Bank Speakers Fed: Powell and Bowman – any guidance on rate-cut timing will be market-moving, particularly after recent shifts in expectations. ECB: Dolenc – may comment on inflation trends and policy trajectory heading into 2025. Earnings CrowdStrike, Marvell Technologies – key results for tech and cybersecurity sentiment. Could influence broader Nasdaq direction. Other OECD Economic Outlook – updated global growth and inflation projections; may influence risk sentiment, especially for Europe. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US ISM and China PMI are the key catalysts Monday December 1 Key Data Releases US – November ISM Manufacturing Index A major directional indicator for US growth and risk sentiment. A strong print supports yields and USD; a weak one favours cuts pricing and equities. China – November Manufacturing PMI Critical for global cyclicals and commodities. Markets will watch for signs of stabilization after recent softness. UK – October Net Consumer Credit, M4 Money Supply Insight into credit conditions and domestic demand ahead of BoE’s next decisions. Japan – November Monetary Base Useful for gauging BoJ liquidity trends, though lower market impact. Italy – November Manufacturing PMI, Budget Balance, New Car Registrations Adds colour to Eurozone growth momentum; limited standalone market impact but relevant for BTPs. Canada – November Manufacturing PMI Influences CAD sentiment, especially vs USD on a light domestic calendar. Central Bank Speakers BoJ Gov. Ueda – High-impact. Markets watching for any shift toward policy normalization or comments on yen weakness. ECB’s Nagel – Hawkish lean; remarks may influence front-end EUR rates if he pushes back on early-cut expectations. BoE’s Dhingra – Typically dovish; could add to GBP softness if she emphasises downside growth risks. Other Events EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defence) Limited direct market impact but may generate headlines on EU security, industrial policy, and defence-spending initiatives. Market Implications Rates: ISM and China PMI are the key catalysts for direction in global yields. FX: USD sensitive to ISM; JPY to Ueda; EUR and GBP to central-bank rhetoric. Equities: Cyclicals and industrials will track PMI momentum; tech and defensives remain data-dependent. Commodities: China PMI likely to drive early moves in metals and energy sentiment. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead A busy data calendar will shape market sentiment today, with a strong focus on inflation and growth indicators across Europe and North America. Key Data Releases UK: November Lloyds Business Barometer Japan: October housing starts Germany: November CPI, unemployment claims rate, October retail sales, import price index France: November CPI & consumer confidence, October PPI, consumer spending, Q3 total payrolls Italy: November CPI Canada: Q3 GDP Sweden: Q3 GDP Switzerland: Q3 GDP These releases will offer fresh insight into inflation trajectories, labour market conditions, and growth momentum across major economies. Central Banks ECB October consumer expectations survey Speech from ECB’s Nagel — markets will watch for clues on rate path expectations Earnings Meituan reports, which may influence sentiment toward Chinese tech and consumer sectors. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US markets closed, liquidity thin globally.Key Data Releases China: October industrial profits — useful for gauging momentum in China’s manufacturing and global demand sentiment. Japan: November Tokyo CPI (important early inflation signal) October jobless rate & job-to-applicant ratio (labour-market tightness) October retail sales and industrial production (activity indicators) Europe: Germany December GfK consumer confidence Italy November economic sentiment Italy September industrial sales Eurozone October M3 money supply and November economic confidence Canada: Q3 current account balance Central Bank Events ECB: Account of the October meeting — may influence rate-cut expectations. BoJ: Noguchi speaks — any hints on policy normalization watched closely. BoE: Greene speaks — messaging on inflation persistence could affect GBP rates. Other US Thanksgiving Holiday US markets closed, liquidity thin globally. Expect muted volumes, potential for exaggerated moves in FX and rates due to reduced participation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US macro, central-bank toneKey Focus for Markets Today 1. Data Releases US: Chicago PMI (Nov): A key read on Midwest manufacturing and business conditions—often a good leading indicator for ISM. Durable Goods Orders (Sept): Important for assessing capex trends and underlying demand. Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly labour-market pulse; any drift higher will feed rate-cut expectations. Australia: October CPI—important for RBA policy path. Norway: Q3 GDP—impacting NOK and regional sentiment. 2. Central Banks RBNZ Decision: Could affect NZD volatility; markets watching for tone on inflation persistence. Fed Beige Book: Qualitative read on economic activity—important for assessing whether softness is broadening. ECB: Financial stability review + comments from Muller, Vujcic and Lane may offer hints on the timing of the ECB’s next cut. 3. Fixed Income US 7-yr Note Auction: After recent Treasury volatility, demand metrics (bid-to-cover, indirects) will be closely watched for rate-path sentiment. 4. UK Autumn Budget: Potential implications for gilts, GBP, and UK equities depending on fiscal stance, tax adjustments, and growth assumptions. Trading Takeaway Today is data-heavy with a mix of US macro, central-bank tone, and a major UK fiscal event. Expect FX volatility around the RBNZ, UK budget, and US data. US rates and equities may react most to durable goods, claims, and Beige Book signals on consumer softness. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Key Data Releases (US-heavy session): US consumer confidence (Nov – Conference Board): Main sentiment gauge for households; closely watched for holiday-season spending signals. Richmond Fed manufacturing & business conditions: Regional insight into industrial momentum. Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing; Dallas Fed services: Additional reads on services activity. October pending home sales: Housing market pulse after recent rate-driven weakness. September retail sales & PPI (final prints): Backward-looking but relevant for pricing trends and Q3 consumption. FHFA house price index & Q3 purchase price index: Housing price pressure in focus. August business inventories: Low market impact. Japan Oct services PPI; EU27 Oct new car registrations: Global demand gauge. Central Banks: ECB’s Villeroy, Makhlouf, Sleijpen, Cipollone all speaking — potential colour on rate-cut timing and inflation trajectory. Could create minor EUR volatility. Corporate Earnings: Heavy slate: Alibaba, Dell, HP, Workday, Analog Devices, Zscaler, Nio. Focus on AI-linked capex (Workday, ADI), PC cycle stabilisation (Dell/HP), and China consumer demand (Alibaba/Nio). Auctions: US 2-yr FRN & 5-yr Note auctions — could influence the belly of the curve; watch for demand metrics. Trading Takeaway: US consumer confidence + services data likely to set tone early. ECB speakers may add noise but no major policy shifts expected. Earnings could drive tech/China-related sentiment after the close. Watch Treasury auctions for rate-vol action in the afternoon. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - Heavy ECB Speaker LineupToday is all about ECB communication, with four separate speeches. There is no major hard economic data, so markets will treat ECB rhetoric as the main catalyst for EUR assets, European equities, and rate expectations. Key Events 09:00 – ECB’s Cipollone (Italy) Typically dovish-leaning. Markets will watch for: Comments on inflation trajectory. Signals about the timing of the next rate cut. Risks around Eurozone growth softness. 12:45 – ECB’s Elderson Known for a balanced stance but focuses on financial stability. Could comment on: Banking-sector conditions. Credit tightening trends. Sustainability-related risks. 14:45 – ECB President Lagarde The main market-moving event of the day. Traders will look for: Guidance on 2025 rate path. Whether the ECB is leaning toward additional cuts amid slowing Eurozone activity. Commentary on services inflation, still sticky. Any reaction to recent soft PMI readings. This speech has the highest potential volatility for: EUR/USD Eurozone bond yields European indices (DAX, EuroStoxx) 17:45 – ECB’s Nagel (Germany) Typically hawkish. Markets will watch whether he: Pushes back against rapid easing. Emphasises inflation persistence. Supports keeping rates restrictive longer. Market Implications Equities With no macro data, equities will respond mainly to tone from Lagarde. Dovish messaging → support for European stocks, risk-on bias. Hawkish pushback → potential pressure on indices. FX EUR likely to see intraday volatility around the 14:45 Lagarde event. A dovish tilt could see EUR weaken, especially vs USD and GBP. Bonds Front-end Eurozone yields will react most strongly. Dovish → yields down Hawkish → yields up This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Global flash PMIs Main focus: Global flash PMIs from the US, UK, Eurozone, Germany, France, and Japan — these will drive markets today and shape expectations for interest-rate cuts. Key Data Global PMIs (Nov): Biggest market mover. US: Kansas City Fed services, consumer sentiment. UK: GfK confidence, retail sales, public finances. France: Manufacturing confidence, retail sales. Canada: Retail sales. Central Bank Speakers Heavy schedule: Fed: Williams, Logan ECB: Lagarde, Guindos, Kocher, Muller, Nagel BoE: Pill Trading View Soft PMIs → lower yields, weaker USD, equity support. Strong PMIs → higher yields, stronger USD, pressure on equities. Central-bank comments may create intraday swings in EUR, GBP, and rates. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US Employment (September)Today is a heavy macro data day, with the spotlight firmly on the US September nonfarm payrolls release. Alongside NFP, the unemployment rate and hourly earnings will give crucial insight into labor-market momentum and inflation pressures. The Philadelphia Fed and Kansas City Fed surveys, plus existing home sales, will add texture to the broader economic picture. Globally, Japan’s October CPI, Germany’s PPI, and the Eurozone’s consumer confidence and construction output provide important signals for regional inflation and growth trends. Canada’s industrial product and raw materials price indices will offer an update on cost pressures in North America. On the central bank front, China publishes its 1-yr and 5-yr LPR, while several Fed, BoJ, and BoE speakers could create intraday volatility if policy tones shift. Earnings are led by Walmart, Gap, Intuit, and Copart—with Walmart likely to be the key sentiment driver for US consumer-related sectors. The US also auctions 10-yr TIPS, which could influence real-yield dynamics later in the session. Takeaway: Expect elevated volatility, especially around the NFP release. US consumer earnings and global inflation prints will shape intraday sector rotation and rate expectations. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - FOMC minutes, NvidiaUK CPI is the key macro release in Europe this morning, likely driving the initial tone for gilts, GBP, and UK rate expectations. A softer print supports the BoE-dovish narrative; a surprise beat could briefly lift yields and pressure UK equities. In the US, the main event is the FOMC minutes, which markets will dissect for guidance on the December meeting, committee confidence on inflation progress, and any concerns about recent easing in financial conditions. Fed speakers (Williams, Barkin, Logan) may influence rate expectations, but their impact will be secondary to the minutes. On the micro side, Nvidia earnings are today’s major catalyst, with markets highly sensitive to data-center growth, AI demand signals, and guidance—likely driving NASDAQ and broader risk tone. Retail earnings from Target, Lowe’s, and TJX offer an important read on consumer momentum heading into the holiday season, while Palo Alto Networks informs cybersecurity and SaaS sentiment. The US 20-yr bond auction is another potential intraday mover: soft demand could push long-end Treasury yields higher ahead of the minutes. Overall, macro volatility clusters around UK CPI and the FOMC minutes, while micro volatility hinges on Nvidia and key retail results. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead Key Data US: NY Fed services index, NAHB housing index, TIC flows Japan: Trade balance, core machine orders → These will guide rate expectations and risk sentiment. Central Banks Fed’s Barkin, ECB’s Dolenc, BoE’s Pill & Dhingra speak → Potential intraday moves in USD, EUR, GBP depending on tone. Earnings Home Depot – key read on US consumer & housing Baidu, Xiaomi, PDD – drivers for China tech sentiment Market View Data-light but speaker- and earnings-driven session US housing + services data will influence yields and equities China tech earnings may impact Nasdaq ADRs BoE/Fed remarks could move FX and rates Trading Implications Risk Tone: Data-dependent and earnings-driven session. Services and housing indicators in the US set the tone for yields and growth stocks. FX: USD sensitive to TIC flows and housing sentiment JPY driven by trade data GBP by BoE speakers Equities: US retail and housing sectors move with Home Depot China tech ADRs may drive Nasdaq ex-MegaCap sentiment Rates: Low-tier but directionally relevant US data could nudge yields Fed/BoE commentary may affect front-end curves This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - US manufacturing & central bank speakersMacro Focus Today Markets will be watching a cluster of mid-tier data releases, with the emphasis on US manufacturing activity, Canada’s inflation print, and a packed roster of central bank speakers that could shape rate expectations ahead of year-end. Key Data US Empire Manufacturing (Nov) – Early read on regional factory activity; often volatile but can set the tone for US macro sentiment. Markets will look for signs of stabilization after recent weakness. US Construction Spending – A good gauge of real-economy momentum, especially with housing still tight. Japan Capacity Utilisation (Sep) – Backward-looking but relevant for assessing Japan’s production recovery. Canada CPI (Oct) – The main event in North America. Any downside surprise strengthens the case for a BoC rate cut trajectory; an upside surprise may reprice yields quickly. Canada Existing Home Sales & Housing Starts – Additional context on how higher rates continue to filter through housing demand. Canada International Securities Transactions (Sep) – Generally low market impact unless showing unusual foreign flows. Central Bank Speakers Fed: Williams, Kashkari Potential colour on whether the Fed is comfortable with the current easing in financial conditions. Any pushback against early-2025 rate-cut expectations would matter. ECB: Guindos, Sleijpen, Lane, Cipollone Tone will be watched for hints on whether disinflation momentum allows discussion of 2025 cuts. BoE: Mann Usually one of the more hawkish voices; could add upside pressure to UK yields if she pushes back against the recent dovish market repricing. Trading Implications Rates/FX: CAD likely the most reactive currency today due to CPI. USD could move on Empire if the print deviates sharply from expectations. Equities: Macro tone remains data-dependent. A soft CAD CPI could support Canadian equities via lower-rate expectations. US equities may chop until clarity from Fed speakers. Credit: Another benign CPI print (US or Canada) supports credit spreads tightening. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
DXY — Sunday War MapThe U.S. government has reopened after a 43-day shutdown, but the gap in economic data remains. Several key datasets were not collected during the closure, and the missing information cannot be reconstructed. As a result, the Dollar is now trading on partial visibility rather than complete fundamentals. Macro Overview The most recent complete inflation report is September CPI at 3.0%, with core inflation also at 3.0%. Earlier in the month, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) briefly moved above 100. It then retreated toward 99 after consumer sentiment fell to a three-year low. Last week’s muted behavior reflects uncertainty, not a structural shift. When information is missing, liquidity becomes cautious and price action compresses. Key Events This Week (Nov 17–21) FOMC Minutes — Wednesday, Nov. 20 This release provides the first reliable view into Federal Reserve discussions since the shutdown. Markets will look for whether policymakers supported multiple rate cuts or expressed hesitation. Consumer Sentiment — Friday, Nov. 22 Last month saw a more than 30% year-over-year decline. Another weak reading will influence Dollar positioning. Delayed Data Returns Housing, industrial production, and jobless claims will re-appear gradually this week. These incomplete releases still matter ahead of the December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting. The Dollar is currently driven more by data absence than by clear economic direction. MSM — Market Structure Mapping DXY remains inside a major daily bullish range: Range Low: 97.672 Range High: 99.985 Price sits near the 50% geometric midpoint. Last week closed at 98.776, maintaining structural balance and preserving the broader bullish framework. VFA — Volume Flow Analytics Price continues to hold on the 98.725 bullish volume node, a level typically used for quiet accumulation. This suggests ongoing absorption of buy-side orders at discount levels ahead of potential volatility expansion. OFD — Order Flow Dynamics Liquidity remains concentrated around two notable participation zones: Aggressive buyers: 98.243 Aggressive sellers: 99.225 These zones are often retested early in the week to assess participation or clear weak inventory before direction establishes. PEM — Precision Execution Modeling Mid-range conditions are typically used to clear stops on both sides before intent forms. Execution criteria for the week: Respect higher-timeframe direction Wait for confirmation Avoid mid-range noise Act only when structure, flow, and behavior align High-quality setups generally appear after liquidity sweeps, not before. Psychological Frame The major risk this week is acting on incomplete data. The shutdown left a statistical gap that has not yet been resolved. Professionals avoid committing capital until visibility improves. The appropriate approach for the week is simple: observe first, act later. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
BTCUSD | NEUTRAL BIAS | DAILY TIMEFRAME Bitcoin isn’t trending — it’s negotiating value. Price is sitting deep in the discount zone of the broader bullish range while resting directly on the naked point of control at 94,353.90. This is negotiation, not momentum. Next week’s US Dollar data will decide whether participation expands or stays muted. MSM — Market Structure Mapping (The Framework) Price has rotated into the 74,420 → 126,402 deep-discount region. Today’s candle prints inside-bar behaviour, meaning the market is compressing and trying to rebalance yesterday’s distribution lower. This is not breakout behaviour — it’s value discovery. VFA — Volume Flow Analytics (The Participation Map) The 94,353.90 NPOC is the key behaviour hinge. As long as price interacts with this level, participation remains cautious and undecided. Value is being weighed — not chased. OFD — Order Flow Dynamics (The Behavior) Order flow leans bearish on the daily timeframe. Yesterday’s 99,836 high → 93,984 low shows sellers pressing, but without meaningful delta expansion or aggressive continuation. Intent here is defensive, not dominant. PEM — Precision Execution Modeling (The Engagement Rules) Market is in a controlled daily pullback phase. The high-probability behaviour target sits below the 91,362 liquidity pool, where stops, inefficiency, and unfinished business remain. Execution here must stay rule-driven — wait for confirmation, not anticipation. - NEXT WEEK’S US DOLLAR DRIVERS TO WATCH Bitcoin’s next move depends less on patterns and more on USD participation. Key US events: 1. Industrial Production & Manufacturing Data Weak = USD eases → crypto gains breathing room. Strong = USD firm → risk assets remain cautious. 2. Housing Starts & Building Permits (High-Impact) Often shift USD volatility and near-term sentiment. 3. FOMC Minutes + Fed Speaker Schedule Hawkish tone → Dollar strength → BTC hesitation. Dovish tone → Dollar ease → BTC participation improves. 4. US Budget & Broader Macro Releases These feed directly into FX algos → crypto indirectly reacts through risk appetite. Bitcoin will respond to flows, not predictions. CORE5 Rule of the Day: Don’t trade what you hope. Trade what participation confirms. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
The Day Ahead - US Veterans Day HolidayKey Data UK: Unemployment rose to 5.0% (4-year high); wage growth slowed to 4.8%. Jobless claims up by ~26k → signals softer labor market. Japan: Economy Watchers survey improved – Current 49.1, Outlook 53.1 → better sentiment. Germany/Eurozone: ZEW sentiment mixed – Germany 39.3 (expectations) but weak current conditions; Eurozone fell to 22.7 → shows economic softness. US: Veterans Day – lighter trading. G7 foreign ministers meeting continues. Central Banks ECB: Vujčić, Kocher speaking. BoE: Greene speaking. → BoE under pressure to turn dovish after weak UK jobs data. Earnings Reports from SoftBank, Sony, Sea, Munich Re, Vodafone, Oklo. Market Impact GBP: Likely weaker after poor jobs data. EUR: Slightly weaker on soft ZEW survey. JPY: Supported by improved business sentiment. Equities: UK: mixed; weaker data may limit gains. Japan: positive tone. Europe: cautious on soft sentiment. Bonds: Yields may fall as rate-cut bets rise. Volumes: Lower due to US holiday. Takeaway UK jobs weakness = pressure on BoE to cut. Japan sentiment improving = positive for Asia. Europe still fragile. Light US trading → focus on UK and EU data. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
The Day Ahead - central bank comments, inflation data,Key Data Japan: September leading/coincident indices, current account, and trade balance. BOJ’s Nakagawa speaks — could move the yen if tone is hawkish. Watch October bank lending data for hints on domestic demand. Denmark & Norway: October CPI — inflation persistence may drive NOK and DKK moves. Central Banks BOJ (Nakagawa): Any hint of tightening → stronger JPY. BoE (Lombardelli): Comments on sticky inflation → supports GBP, higher gilt yields. Earnings to Watch CoreWeave, Barrick Mining, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Venture Global, Paramount Skydance, Rigetti Computing, Maplebear (Instacart). Tech/growth names could move sharply; Barrick may show commodity trends. US Treasury Auction $58 B 3-year notes — key for yield and risk sentiment. Weak demand → higher yields, pressure on equities. Strong demand → yields ease, supports stocks. Market Focus JPY: Sensitive to BOJ tone. NOK/DKK: CPI data risk. US yields: Watch 3-yr auction. Equities: Earnings and bond yields drive sentiment. Overall: Expect moderate volatility with central bank comments, inflation data, and the US bond auction shaping moves in FX, yields, and risk assets. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation