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ENPH

Aftermath of the Fed rate hike - NASDAQ, S&P500, SOXL, ENPHJust a quick rehash on the few that I have been closely following of late, especially after the Fed raised rates 0.75%, as expected; but the important bit was in the narrative (not analyzed here). The NASDAQ futures had 11,900 simply broken through, and the next day followed through with a slight gap down, as global markets react. The S&P500 ETF, SPY, similarly broke down below 388, and closed at its low of the day. Both have bearish candlesticks with momentum, and MACD is supportive of further downside, likely to visit the last low (and possibly exceed) within the coming weeks. In the same light, SOXL (as covered previously) had all its bullishness invalidated since last week. There is a slight divergence with the MACD struggling to maintain a slight bullish stance, but the candlestick is just pain bearish, period. This is highly likely to exceed its previous low and go below 10. ENPH, the fascinating one, is amazingly holding at the lower end of the recent range. It appears to most likely break down to the lower end of the lower range, about 275, to meet the 55EMA. Yes, this is one that is above its daily 55EMA. MACD however, is less bullish with a cross under its Signal line. 235 is a critical support, after 255 (if it is to hold its bullish case). Overall, bearish as previously expected, to the last low for the major indexes and the corresponding ETFs. In the wider scope (not shown here), the USD futures is getting a pump, and both TIP and TLT may be bottoming out. The latter being some deviation from the recent trend where almost all drop except the USD.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
ENPH - totally fascinatedMonths ago, ENPH was highlighted, and since then it has been captivating... particularly this two weeks where this appears to be one that stands out. In the weekly chart (left panel), where the SPY is overlaid in dark blue, ENPH is clearly less correlated and in recent weeks moved opposing to the general market and seems to be keeping to its projected course for the upper target. Candlestick patterns are rather bullish, closing at the weeks' high, and technical indicators are supportive. In the daily chart, it similarly does look somewhat bullish by candlesticks, and the RPM is aligned, while the MACD is a tad weak. Price had broken out of the flag, and appears to have retested successfully as well. Noted that I just learnt how to set up the Gann Box properly and it seems interesting that on time did the bounce to breakout occur. Side note, although not shown here, the hourly chart looks enticing too. *wink* Overall, ENPH appears to be able to push for further highs. One of the very few leads I am keeping a close eye on. Read more about Enphase here as they develop and manufacture solar micro-inverters, battery energy storage, and EV charging stations primarily for residential customers.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by Auguraltrader
JKS: Potential catch-up in Solar and a play on ChinaRecently China's been catching a bid and Solar's been one of the leading industries in the market. One thing I don't like is JKS has been one of the weakest players in solar. I always want to be focused on the strongest name in any sector. In the medium to long term that trend is likely to stay in place. But short term we might see some catch up in JKS vs other solar names. I also like the recent bid in China names which might help boost this thesis. Some comparison against ENPH and FSLR: JKS vs ENPH JKS vs FSLR As long as price can get and stay above 64.70 on a weekly closing basis, I'd want to be long JKS. If long ENPH or FSLR, I wouldn't replace those, but would view this position as an added layer of solar upside + China exposure.
NYSE:JKSLong
by Lanmar
1
$ENPH isn't the only solar stock, look at $SHLSShoals Tech Grp p is a leading provider of electrical balance of system or “EBOS” solutions for solar photovoltaic, energy storage and eMobility. IBD ranks NASDAQ:SHLS in number 6 of its industry and has a 95 in its relative strength rating. Looking at the company's valuations, pure fundamentalists would say it's overvalued. But, the technicals clearly signal leadership and strength relative to the market and its industry. Although, NASDAQ:PLUG , NASDAQ:PI and NASDAQ:FLNC look very good. Remember, price is king!
NASDAQ:SHLSLong
by dpuleo19
ENPH recharged & potential in its explosive upside actionHighlighted previously, two months ago, ENPH exploded 50% to the upside against the major market move. Then it went into a consolidation phase for a month, and it appears to have broken out of a flag pattern. And by pattern projection, there is another potential 25-30% upside to this move. The daily chart shows the breakout and possible engagement point (white arrow) in July. This came with favourable technicals where the MACD and RPM crossed over. A clear consolidation phase started in August and a descending range formed the flag. This week saw the star of an attempt to breakout and yesterday was a major move to the upside with momentum (8% bullish marubozu) and broke out of the flag. Another potential entry point is at breakout point (white arrow). With this, the flag pole (yellow arrow) can be used to project the upside target. At the moment, both the technical indicators RPM and MACD are supportive as they cross over their respective MA lines. Upside target by flag pattern projection is 406. Out of pure interest and curiosity , I wanted to analyze the effect of this Gann box which I recently find interesting. So it was "force fitted" into the price action, where the first 0.25 of the time axis measured the flag pole rally. This fitted to the start of the consolidation flag. The height of the initial rally was set at the 0.5 level. The outcome was rather interesting... at 0.75 of the timeline, spot-on the breakout occurs. and the projected remainder of the 0.5 also approximates the upside target at 420 (as opposed to the flag pole projection at 406) For Gann practitioners, please do enlighten.... thanks in advance!
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by Auguraltrader
Enphase Energy – Is it Overpriced Enough to Start Shorting it?Fundamental Indicators: Sector – Technology US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is not favourable Revenue – explosive growth for the past 5 years, 40% 5-year average Profits – consistently growing since 2020 Net margin – decent 11% for tech company P/E – extremely high at 195 compared to S&P500 with 21 and Technology sector 27 Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.81 which is within normal limits, Net Debt/ EBITDA is at 0.13 – no problems with debt Conclusion – great financial performance since it became profitable in 2019 but it is grossly overpriced considering the current global economic situation, so it is very likely to go into correction to let the steam out Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of completing wave 3 (see higher timeframe graph) Since the correction of March 2020, the stock price went ballistic with nearly 1400% jump, which makes sense as solar energy technology is in great demand now considering the current geo-political situation However, EW count suggests that the latest global correction in the form of Running Flat lasted between February 2021 and January 2022 and since then there was another move to the upside in a choppy manner which is likely to be an Ending Diagonal currently in final stages of completion Once reversal started we can expect correction to a target area of $110-$150 representing 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels to the global wave 3 This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Enphase Energy and to provide full wave count: What do you think about Enphase Energy and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves.
NASDAQ:ENPHShort
by vitalalyt
3
ENPH Enphase Energy got electric charged!This came up on my screener... ENPH Reading abotut it was intriguing as this was interesting as it develops, manufactures, and sells solar microinverters, energy monitoring software, and battery storage products. Given the expected surge of crude after the current retracement, and the sustainability trend, I find ENPH intriguingly positioned. Technicals flagged it out, having taken some damage since Oct 2021. A triangle formation breakout, and retest appears to have been done and a second breakout (of a trendline) flagged it. The daily technical indicators are turning up to support the breakout. On the news front, apparently solar stocks were given a boost with Biden's announcement where there would not be any new tariffs on solar imports for the next two years. In addition, There was authorization for Defense Production Act to help US manufacturers of solar panels, and it is expected that US solar manufacturing capacity can triple in the next two years. People would need energy management tools! Looks delicious... Potential upside target based on triangle breakout projections put it at 360 in Nov 2022. An interesting proposition seen in this chart.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by Auguraltrader
5
Symmetrical Triangle - Watching closelySEDG has been holding this symmetrical triangle for quite some time now, broader market conditions permitting, will certainly be looking for a breakout to the upside going into earnings and as a sympathy play for ENPH, which has earnings on 7/26'. SEDG has some nice bullish divergence on the RSI as buyer volume increases relative to seller volume. SEDG is flagging on the weekly timeframe (See attached chart below), Bollinger bands are also squeezing on the daily and weekly timeframes in addition to a bullish harmonic pattern forming on the daily timeframe. Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this triangle (Broader Market Conditions Permitting). Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime- Price Targets & Previous charts are attached below --Weekly Timeframe-- --Previously Charted-- PT1- $277.62 PT2- $281.27 PT3- $286.34 PT4- $293.14 + Breakout
NASDAQ:SEDGLong
by jacobosiason7
8
ENPH breakout (long trade)Enphase Energy is a solar stock setting up in a textbook breakout pattern. Pullbacks have shallowed from over 50% at the start of the bear market down to 14%. This volatility compression shows accumulation in the stock and a transfer from weak hands to strong. The numbers are tremendous on this one. As you can see from the MarketSmith numbers at the bottom of the chart, sales and earnings are growing at an extraordinary rate for the last four quarters. 2022 estimates are for a 45% increase in EPS and another 24% increase is expected in 2023. Relative strength ranks at 97/100 and the solar sector as a whole is the top-performing sector right in the market right now. A strong stock in a strong sector at the start of a new bull market is the formula for knocking down triple digit gains, and this stock could very well deliver. I'm looking for a breakout above the $220 level to trigger the buy. A move on increased volume would give me even higher conviction.
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by rossgivens
4
ENPH holds better than TAN;if mid165 fails, 120 will be retestedENPHASE is holding better than its mother ETF, TAN. Since 2021, it has basically been consolidating horizontally except for an overshoot 4Q2021. In contrast, the TAN etf is in a falling wedge formation. BULLISH CASE: Better yet, it is holding above the middle of this conso box, the 165 to 170 zone. (Middle of 120 to 220). This is also a convergence of 3 VWAPs from recent highs & recent bottoms. If it holds 165, then 220 will be retested. BEARISH CASE: If this midzone is lost, then a retest of 120 will be next or even a double bottom sometimes in 3Q2022 to create a divergence. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:ENPH
by xtremerider8
ENPHase W-pattern may reach 328 for wave 5 if 200 holdsENPH is the strongest component of the TAN solar ETF. Just like the biotech sector, it has started to gain ground after a long hammer candle at the week of May 9,2022. Since then it bounced with 4 consecutive green weekly candles from 165, the middle of a big trading range since 2021 (110-210). BULLISH CASE: ENPH is now at 210 the top of the range. It may retrace back down & retest the 165 midpoint or the VWAPs before a rally to again BO the 200 to 210 red zone with 328 as the destination of its wave V. This assumes that wave IV is a running flat & the 5-wave wave V is underway. It is now at the wave 3 of a bigger wave V. BEARISH CASE got hammered when ENPH bounce above all my VWAPs & is now attempting to breakout the 200-210 red zone. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by xtremerider8
1