Get started

Equilibrium

XAU/USD Short with 12.0 R/R - rejection of OTEDear Traders all around the world First of all, thanks for all the support I get! My S&P 500 Analysis reached the top in the US Indices section. If you like my work and want to motivate me even more, simply like & follow not to miss any of my high-reward trades! Today we're taking a look at XAU/USD , as it seems we could go down from here. At the very moment we're perfectly rejecting OTE of our whole retracement, while sitting at June 18' prices. Referring to the picture in the comment-section, we have a very clear bearish-divergence on the daily RSI . Along with this, our weekly 200-MA is sitting right at EQ of our retracement (refer to picture in the comment-section again) Did you notice this nice trendline ? With these four confluences, I'm aiming for EQ . Averaged-out-entries: $1302, $1306, $1309 - 50%, 25%, 25% each TP1: $1289.90 TP2: $1277.5 TP3: $1266 TP4: $1250.5 Stop-Loss: $1310.95
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by CleanTrades
5
USD/CHF Short with astronomical 12.3 R/R - approaching OTEBefore I'll give you more information about this analysis, I'd really appreciate if you share some love with me through likes & follows, not to miss any of my further analysis! Today we're taking a look at USD/CHF . It seems like USD/CHF is ready for a decent drop in price. As you can see on the chart, we have two different options to play this. We're currently approaching OTE and have already rejected our green zone between 0.99887 - 1.00070 (yet). I'm targeting at least for Equilibrium ( EQ ), which is at 0.98940, along with other confluences such as a clean previous high & our 200-MA , both sitting right there. Entry-zone: 0.9988 - 0.9998 TP1: 0.99373 TP2: 0.99222 TP3: 0.98940 TP4: 0.98560 Stop-Loss: 1. Option: Above 5th December high (slightly above the green zone) at 1.00091 2. Option: Back in consolidation-zone at 1.00426 Updating this analysis as PA develops.
Short
by CleanTrades
BTC Update! Tightening pattern! Will it break bullish or bearishQuick update. BTC has been tightening up really ever since the bull move on Monday. Bulls saw a strong push upwards and topped out at $3711. The ideal from there for bulls would have been brief consolidation and then another leg up. Instead we have entered into an equilibrium pattern of higher lows and lower highs. BTC pulled back from the $3711 level down to $3539. They then formed a lower high at $3667, another higher low at $3541 (essentially a double bottom), another lower high at $3657 (essentially a double top) and are now in process of pulling back again and seeking another higher low compared to $3541. As these higher lows and lower highs tighten, it does not give much wiggle room for price action and the tighter the pattern can get, the more likely scenario for a strong break when either the lower highs or highs lows break. I personally did scale into a position on LTC on the pullback a couple days ago and now have my stop loss set using its most recent low so gives me less than a 1% risk from my fill position. I usually don't play fills in this manner but it was a relatively small position and happened to be at computer when some type of negative news on ETH came out and was watching a fairly quick bearish run across ETH, BTC and LTC so opted to go ahead and fill some for LTC. Ideally I want to see BTC break its equilibrium bullish and thus allow LTC to hopefully run up a stronger % than BTC sees. Equilibrium patterns like this for BTC are 50/50 patterns and for bulls if they break above the most recent lower high, we want to see market buys and stop buy orders filling which provides the volume and gets bulls piling in to give one of the strong pushes upward. Those playing bearish seek the opposite with the higher lows failing and triggering stop losses or market sell orders to dump the price down quickly. Hoping to see a break today or tomorrow on BTC to give the market a direction for the next few days. If we see a bull break, will need to see that continuation and get the higher lows and higher highs pattern re-established. If BTC sees a bear break, I'll be extremely patient and waiting to see if the bulls can continue to defend our lows in that $3100-3200 range. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Bulls running out of steam? Equilibrium?Here we go again. Thus far bulls have seen a very healthy move and made for a very profitable trade. I continue to hold the remaining half of my position as bulls have not lost the 4 hour uptrend. BUT I am keeping a closer watch now so here are some things I am personally keeping an eye on. Yesterday we were hopeful to see if $3637 would hold as a higher low compared to one below of $3437 and it did. This allowed me to move SL up to full profitable position on trade. Bulls ran up to $4175 from there which is our current top of the bull move. Last night we saw yet another higher low forming at $3878 which is where I am now at for new SL. Here is where things started to turn for me. We saw a decent upper wick on $4175 top as well as the two candlesticks before. This indicates some decent profit taking to me. We then saw a decent lower wick on $3878 so bulls are still buying that dip. However, we then formed a lower high at $4162 and also saw a decent upper wick. Bulls technically have a new higher low at $3896 but its so close to $3878 I tend to slide in with lower one for stop losses. But bulls again bought that dip and now have $4098 potentially setting up as another lower high. 12 EMA on 4 hour continues to hold support so is another area I am watching to see if it caves which would then likely send us to lower lows on 4 hour. Those familiar with my trading style, this is an equilibrium where we start setting lower highs and higher lows, tightening up the range in which we are trading. I do expect a break of this pattern likely today. If a bull break, I am personally looking to scale out and do not expect a ton of follow through as our daily chart is going to need to consolidate soon anyways. If a bear break then I will utilize stop loss to lock in profits from the trade. A bear break does not mean the bulls are done and simply would just zoom out to daily chart to see how much consolidation occurs. Bulls will still want to keep that bearish volume in check and allow the daily chart to comfortably form its higher low compared to our low down at $3129. All of this would be perfectly healthy but as a trader, I still want to protect profits and would rather lock those in the rebuy (ideally lower than where I sell) on the consolidation of the daily chart if that consolidation is healthy. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
1
BTC Update! Following pattern nicelyYesterdays chart we were watching the bulls as well as the shorts chart and I stated "in order to see these shorts get squeezed, the bulls need to break above $3486 (perhaps to somewhere in the 3500's) and then pull back briefly for a higher low and then break out again and into the 3600s+ for shorts to truly feel any pressure and create the squeeze to give a good size run up" The bulls were able to break above $3486 and ran another $100 up to $3586 before pulling back to set their lower high which they set down at $3437. Bulls are now back on the move and would love to break into $3600's tonight. If they set a lower high here, they'd then again look for a higher low and just tighten up the pattern before the eventual bear or bull break. I personally did scale into positions in the upper $3400's on the consolidation yesterday and will comfortably use the stop loss from our higher low. Thus far, volume looks fine with no red flags. EMAs on 4 hour are slowly catching up and could potentially serve as a support (as well as another higher low) tonight or tomorrow. Its nice to see some bullish movement but still a lot of work on daily and weekly charts to reverse any trends on the larger time frames. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
BTC Update! Shaping into a 4 hour equilibrium?Another quick update. Nothing jumping out for me to be bullish or bearish on a trade here so remaining all cash personally. I do see a potential 4 hour equilibrium shaping up as we have our low of the dump yesterday to $3508, a lower high at $3800, a higher low at $3563 and appears to be trying to put in another lower high at $3763 here. I'd like to see things tighten up a bit more with another higher low/lower high or two before it breaks. Would give some low risk entries for bulls and bears to both take on depending on the direction it broke. But for now, just something I'll keep an eye on. Needs to tighten up to get traders interested and not worried too much on a bear break with the bears getting follow through but would worry about a bull break and bulls having issues with follow through. Bulls just lacking confidence so tough to trust any type of bull break to not immediately get knocked down by bears. Drew in some dashed lines for hypothetical to watch for into tonight and ideally even into early part of tomorrow if it can continue to tighten. Time will tell if anything comes of it. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
1
BTC Update! Equilibrium in play! Levels to watchHere we go again. A few days ago on my last post I was looking for another leg down from our low at the time of $4863 and we easily got that with an eventual bottom of $4,035. Since then I am watching an equilibrium pattern. Those not familiar it is the start of lower highs and higher lows and the pattern tightens up. To me, its like a spring being wound tightly until it eventually breaks. So on this chart we had $4035 as the low, $4628 as a lower high (compared to $4759), $4336 as out first higher low, and then $4589 as another lower high (set yesterday). Bulls will attempt to form a higher low here compared to $4336 and are currently sitting right around $4400 as I type this. This is a low risk entry point for traders to try and scale in between $4340-4450 or so and have $4336 as the stop loss. Bears will be waiting likely around 12 EMA (orange line) if the bulls do form a higher low and move back up in order to try and set another lower high compared to $4589 and continue to tighten the range up. I am personally in a partial position here with one more order to fill in the $4300's and will look to use the stop appropriately. I would lean towards a bear break still on this pattern but the low risk entries here have me at least interested in my first trade opportunity in over two weeks since I last took profits. Bulls must set a higher low here and ideally get above 12 EMA and then get the higher high to try and start some momentum on the bullish side. Spikes in bear volume, a fall to a lower low set BTC bulls up for a dangerous situation to re-test $4k level again. Something I personally want to be away from.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
ACB bulls draw a line in the sandACB spent the better half of Friday defending $11.75 as a line in the sand, despite the hourly bearish MACD divergence. If that cannot hold I would not expect 11.65 to hold, resulting in an Inside Bar bear break. From there I would zoom out to the 4hr chart and look for a higher low compared to $10.18 and a tightening range from there. Investment rumours from Coca Cola give correlation favour to the bulls, and I would expect ACB to hold up better than other names should we see sector-wide consolidation this coming week.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
2
Looking at previous CGC all time highs for clues into next weekThe similarities I've highlighted here look better on WEED than on CGC because Jan 15th saw the TSX trade but not the US exchanges. That said I'm looking at similarities in the first oversold bounces following the last two all time highs at 35.88 in January and 36.55 in June. Subsequent those bounces we saw a tightening range playing out across more than a week of trading before the equilibrium finally broke - down. In each of the previous two examples the price set a lower low compared to the low of the oversold bounce. It's very possible this happens again, but with legalization being such a huge catalyst, it's also quite likely that support holds and we enter into a larger daily equilibrium prior to continuation of the current bull move. The most important support to me heading into next week is 40.68. The best case scenario for the bulls is to hold 46.20 to show they're in absolute control over the coming days. There are several fundamental things I'm watching here. CNBC is covering the MJ sector numerous times each day, and I've noticed a shift in their coverage from "stocks rocketing higher", to "we're in a bubble." This shifted with the implosion of TLRY on Wednesday and the 50% drop in share price within an hour (now down a full 65% from the highs). CNBC has an agenda here, and that's currently a risk to bullish positions in the sector. Second is the amount of short interest in these stocks right now. each of WEED, ACB, and APH are among the most shorted stocks on the TSX, and each have had an incredible increase in short positions opened over the course of September (regrettably I do not know if this information exists for CGC - if someone has this info please hit me up in the comment section below!) Finally, there is the potential of other major catalysts such as global companies entering into the sector in the form of investments, partnerships, and other agreements or LOIs. These events have the potential of squeezing short positions to cover, now so they can enter again later. @DonnaSko, on a previous idea you asked about my thoughts on a long position in CGC. I don't like a long position right now; If this tightening pattern does break upwards and we see new highs, I fully expect a selloff on or within a few days (before/after) of October 17th, 2018 legalization date, followed by a long drawn out period of consolidation. If for whatever reason we do not see new highs, and break down setting new lows from here, I will have to reassess the situation from that stand point. From here I only really like two entries for longs. The first would be to bottomfish against 40.68 support with a stop-loss below that price to protect your capital should should the sector break down from here for whatever reason. The second would be to enter on the break of 52.60, which would be a bull-break of the current 4hr equilibrium we're currently suspended in. With an entry there I'd place my stop-loss below the most recent low, which is currently 46.20. Either way, I would absolutely take profit on or just before October 17th as I fully expect that catalyst to be a sell the news event, should we continue the bull run up until that date. Then I'd wait patiently to buy back in much cheaper for a long term investment position.
C
by McGuireTO
6
CRON - letting the dust settleCRON was all bulls today out of the gate setting a new all time high before pulling back hard. I'm watching the CRON range expecting a daily equilibrium from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. It's notable CRON is the only name that hasn't lost it's 4hr uptrend. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. The 4hr chart currently looks bear-flaggy with extended hours on, although the big lower wicks are a point aginst that possibility. Breaking the low of today would confirm the bear flag. Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday. I find the most clarity on the 4hr and daily charts.
NASDAQ:CRON
by McGuireTO
APH - letting the dust settleWatching the APH.TO range from low of the oversold bounce to high of today. Today we saw our lower high set and bulls are now looking for a new support level above 15.76. Today's low bounced right off the .5 retracement of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that new support holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday. I find the most clarity on the daily chart.
A
by McGuireTO
ACB - letting the dust settleWatching the ACB.TO range from low of the gap up on Monday morning to high of today. Today saw significant bull breaks of key levels 11.77 and 11.98 leaving very few resistances left until the all time high. However, some healthy consolidation is required. Today's low bounced right off the .5 retracement of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that new support holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday. I find the most clarity on the daily and 4hr charts.
TSX:ACB
by McGuireTO
5
CGC - letting the dust settleWatching the CGC range from low of Friday to high of today. Today's low bounced right off the golden pocket of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday. I find the most clarity on the daily and 4hr charts. The 4hr chart with extended hours could be considered a bear flag here, but those long lower wicks of bulls buying the dip are a point in opposition to that possibility.
C
by McGuireTO
4
WEED - letting the dust settleWatching the WEED.TO range from low of Friday to high of today. Today's low bounced right off the golden pocket of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. I find the most clarity here on the 4hr and daily charts. The bear volume today was significant We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CRON bounce was by far the weakest of the major sector namesCRON low of Friday was just below the .5 retracement from low of consolidation to all time high 13.39. It had the weakest bounce Friday out of the big four, rejecting hard from the .382 dump retracement whereas other names hit the .5 or in the case of APH hit the .618. Watching the hourly chart for a break of it's tightening range to indicate short term momentum for this week, and helping to define levels for the daily tightening pattern on a macro level
NASDAQ:CRON
by McGuireTO
BTC 4hr/daily Bounce Occurring. Looking for Weekly Lower HighI mentioned in my last BTC post that I was looking for BTC to set a higher low on the weekly compared to 5858 and then for bulls to take over to set a lower high. BTC is bouncing from 6119 and has changed the 4hr uptrend for the first time since the dump on September 5th. For me to be confident that the weekly higher low has been established and for bulls to have a chance of breaking the weekly equilibrium pattern I need to see higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. So far we are seeing weak bull volume on this bounce and are testing the 4hr 55EMA, daily 10MA, and daily 12EMA. I am in short positions in some altcoins and will increase position size as BTC approaches the 26/55EMA on the daily. The area we are currently trying to move through has a lot of support/resistance price history from 2018, indicated by the red box. If bulls want to have any chance of saving the weekly equilibrium pattern, we need to see impulsive moves up through this area with more volume. I anticipate that bulls will set a weekly lower high below 7000 since the 6850 area has a lot of resistance (if we can even make it that far). After the weekly lower high is set I will look for a break of the weekly equilibrium pattern to indicate direction for the rest of the year. The weak bounce has brought the 1hr and 4hr RSI back above oversold levels, which can allow bears to more easily drive the price back down again if they show up. I have no interest in playing bullish because of the amount of resistance we have in the red box, even if we see a change in trend on the daily timeframe. Until bulls can break above 7429 all my positions will be shorts.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1304866
1
ONT: Multiple 4HR Bars Before Inside Bar Breaks BearishONT saw almost 12 hours pass before the inside bar finally broke bearish. Higher lower patter broke, and we are in full bear mode right now. Bulls continue to lose the moving averages as support. If you look back before the last bear break, the bulls were coming in HOT with volume to keep the moving averages as support. Eventually their steem ran out and now the bears are fighting to do the same. We are seeing continous decreasing volume with each 4HR bar until very minimal and then the bear bomb drops with a large volume spike and a drop in price. Ideally the bears would like to push the price down below the bear wedge (red) that we are seeing right now and push to new lows. Not a lot of action at the price level on Binance in the past, we don't have much to go off of which is never help. Right now, I am playing it patient. I do have some money in at this level because there has been a lot of support in the 1.80-1.95 range. The bulls will fight to push the volume higher in the 1.90 range before making a run at 2.00 which will be a HUGE TEST. Moving averages are pushing down lower and lower which I think the bulls REALLY LIKE at this point. Having both so close together makes for a HUGE resistance level to break. Keep a close eye on the wedge I have posted in red. As you can see.... we are getting VERY CLOSE. J_DOT_CRYPTO Callin' it like I see it!
by jreilly1310
ONT Bulls Break Higher High, Higher LowONT bulls come out swinging today and we are zoomed out to the 1HR! As you can see, they are currently holding the 12 Moving Average as support and trying to break the 26 Moving Average before a run at the 100MA! MACD is bullish and separating shaping into a quite bullish set up! We have have a higher low formed, and the bulls will now look to break to a high higher while regaining the 26MA as support! The zone between the 12 and 26 moving averages is tight, and the 12 is setting up to break up through if the bulls can keep momentum in their favor! As always, set stop losses within 5-10% (depending on your preference) of the 12MA as it is working as our current support. If broke, there are a few support levels in the 1.90's that I think will hold us up for now. J-DOT-CRYPTO
by jreilly1310
ONT Equilibrium Pattern Breaks BullishONT zone got VERY tight overnight allowing us to zoom all the way into the 15 min chart to follow. As you can see it became tighter and tighter until it came time to test the 12MA and 26MA. Previous attempts have broke bullish on this time frame, but the bears finally tired out and the bulls take over the 15 minute time frame. Breaking the the 12MA and the 26MA and shifting their momentum and moving them in the right direction! We now zoom out to the 1HR chart, and see what the bulls can do here. After the bear momentum yesterday the moving averages are primed and ready to come up and break through the 100MA to regain bull dominance. For now, we wait and see if the bulls can keep it up! J-DOT-CRYPTO
by jreilly1310
1
FB tightening daily equilibriumFB in a tightening equilibrium, trying to find support here before moving up and finding a lower high relative to 188.30. Losing 170.91 would increase the odds of a weekly bear flag, I'd be looking down at 166.56 then low of the after earnings post-market dump, 164.30. Lots of support in that area, with a yellow trend line in tact since June 2013 just below. Breaking bullish out of this pattern and I'll be sitting comfortable in a swing looking up to all time highs again with little resistance in the way.
FLong
by McGuireTO