BTC 4hr/daily Bounce Occurring. Looking for Weekly Lower High
I mentioned in my last BTC post that I was looking for BTC to set a higher low on the weekly compared to 5858 and then for bulls to take over to set a lower high.
BTC is bouncing from 6119 and has changed the 4hr uptrend for the first time since the dump on September 5th. For me to be confident that the weekly higher low has been established and for bulls to have a chance of breaking the weekly equilibrium pattern I need to see higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. So far we are seeing weak bull volume on this bounce and are testing the 4hr 55EMA, daily 10MA, and daily 12EMA. I am in short positions in some altcoins and will increase position size as BTC approaches the 26/55EMA on the daily.
The area we are currently trying to move through has a lot of support/resistance price history from 2018, indicated by the red box. If bulls want to have any chance of saving the weekly equilibrium pattern, we need to see impulsive moves up through this area with more volume. I anticipate that bulls will set a weekly lower high below 7000 since the 6850 area has a lot of resistance (if we can even make it that far). After the weekly lower high is set I will look for a break of the weekly equilibrium pattern to indicate direction for the rest of the year.
The weak bounce has brought the 1hr and 4hr RSI back above oversold levels, which can allow bears to more easily drive the price back down again if they show up.
I have no interest in playing bullish because of the amount of resistance we have in the red box, even if we see a change in trend on the daily timeframe. Until bulls can break above 7429 all my positions will be shorts.
BTC is bouncing from 6119 and has changed the 4hr uptrend for the first time since the dump on September 5th. For me to be confident that the weekly higher low has been established and for bulls to have a chance of breaking the weekly equilibrium pattern I need to see higher lows and higher highs on the daily timeframe. So far we are seeing weak bull volume on this bounce and are testing the 4hr 55EMA, daily 10MA, and daily 12EMA. I am in short positions in some altcoins and will increase position size as BTC approaches the 26/55EMA on the daily.
The area we are currently trying to move through has a lot of support/resistance price history from 2018, indicated by the red box. If bulls want to have any chance of saving the weekly equilibrium pattern, we need to see impulsive moves up through this area with more volume. I anticipate that bulls will set a weekly lower high below 7000 since the 6850 area has a lot of resistance (if we can even make it that far). After the weekly lower high is set I will look for a break of the weekly equilibrium pattern to indicate direction for the rest of the year.
The weak bounce has brought the 1hr and 4hr RSI back above oversold levels, which can allow bears to more easily drive the price back down again if they show up.
I have no interest in playing bullish because of the amount of resistance we have in the red box, even if we see a change in trend on the daily timeframe. Until bulls can break above 7429 all my positions will be shorts.