ETH/USDT — Critical Retest at 3950–3520 Before Next Major Move?Ethereum has once again faced strong rejection from the key supply zone between 4,940–5,272 (Fib 0.5–0.618), signaling heavy selling pressure at this multi-year resistance area.
Price action now points toward a potential retracement into the major demand zone (yellow block) between 3,950–3,520, where the next directional move is likely to be decided.
---
📊 Key Technical Structure
Major Supply Zone: 4,940 – 5,272 (Fib 0.5–0.618)
Minor Support: 4,120
Primary Demand Zone (Yellow Block): 3,950 – 3,520
Next Supports (if broken): 3,210 → 2,132
Bullish Fibonacci Targets: 6,345 → 8,082 → 10,891
---
📈 Bullish Scenario — “Reclaim & Expansion”
ETH still maintains a macro structure of higher-highs and higher-lows on the weekly timeframe.
As long as the 3,520 support holds, the broader trend remains bullish.
A strong rebound from 3,950–3,520 followed by a weekly close above 5,272 would confirm bullish continuation and open up:
Target 1: 6,345 (Fib 1.0)
Target 2: 8,082 (Fib 1.618)
Target 3: 10,891 (Fib 2.618 — potential cycle top)**
The key confirmation for bulls is a weekly reclaim above 5,272 with volume.
---
📉 Bearish Scenario — “Breakdown & Deeper Retracement”
If the selling pressure continues and ETH closes below 3,520, the bullish structure will be invalidated.
Such a breakdown could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
3,210 (Fib 0.618 confluence)
2,132–1,955 (deeper structural retracement)
Failure to defend the yellow block would shift ETH into a lower-high / lower-low structure, signaling a medium-term trend reversal.
---
🔍 Market Context
ETH is currently retesting the same macro resistance zone that marked the all-time high area in 2021.
The rejection at 5K highlights that supply remains dominant in this region, while the 3,950–3,520 demand block now serves as the key battlefield for bulls and bears.
As long as the yellow block holds, this pullback can still be considered a healthy correction within a macro uptrend.
But if it breaks, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase before the next cycle begins.
---
📍 Summary
Ethereum stands at a major inflection point:
Bullish Case: Bounce from 3,950–3,520 and reclaim 5,272 → targets 6.3K – 8K – 10.8K
Bearish Case: Breakdown below 3,520 → deeper correction to 3.21K or even 2.13K
The 3,950–3,520 demand zone is the final defense for ETH’s mid-term bullish structure — hold it, and the trend continues; lose it, and momentum fades.
---
#Ethereum #ETHUSDT #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #PriceAction #CryptoMarket #WeeklyChart #ETHAnalysis #MarketStructure
