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Eurusdtechnicalanalysis

Will FOMC cause a EUR/USD rush?We’re coming down to the last hour stretch for the trading day (depending on your location, I’m in New York so closing time is 5:00 P.M. (1700) As indicated in my previous idea for the EUR/USD, it has been a pretty slow decline for the past 10 days however; it is still wedged in, in terms of a still valid falling wedge pattern. If the daily candle closes with a gain, that signifies a strong indication of a bullish move but the question is, if the bulls decided to run, how far will the up move be? If targets are at the pattern projection, we’re looking at 1.0900 minimum which is in the same area at the main pivot zone. If sellers come pouring in, then I’d project a move down to at least 1.0750. With FOMC on the horizon, I wouldn’t be surprised if price whipsawed to stop many traders out before actually making any significant move. From a purely technical point of view, we’ve got a falling wedge with what is now a more prominent “hidden” MACD divergence. Long term, I’m bullish on the EUR/USD due to a large bullish pattern that can be observed on both the Monthly and Quarterly time frames. Projected long term price targets are 1.1500 followed by a second target of 1.2000 We shall see tomorrow with FOMC and NFP Friday morning. Trade safe and manage risk.
Long
by InternalTraderNYC
EUR/USD Longs from 1.07500 up towards 1.08800For EURUSD this week, my analysis closely mirrors what I've observed with GBPUSD. I anticipate a similar scenario unfolding, where I expect price to dip slightly further to interact with the refined demand zone on the 2-hour timeframe. Following this interaction, I'll be on the lookout for a bullish response. Alternatively, if price doesn't reach this demand zone, I foresee a swift retracement to fill the imbalances from NFP Friday, followed by potential distribution within the newly identified 10-hour supply zone. Should this supply zone be tested first, my strategy will involve selling positions targeting the 2-hour demand zone. Confluences for EU Buys are as follows: - Price is near a clean 2-hour demand zone that has broken structure to the upside. - Liquidity above zone so when it gets swept we can expect price to re-accumulate within our zone to then buy back up. - There's lots of liquidity to the upside that needs to be addressed as well as some imbalances. - Dollar (DXY) is still looking bearish as well which means more upside is still left for EU. P.S. Should the 2-hour demand zone be breached, I anticipate a shift towards a bearish trend, as it represents the final support connected to that wing point. Keep your zones pre-marked to stay prepared for any sudden price movements. Have a great week everybody!
Long
by Hassan_fx
6
EURUSD: The USD is expected to have its largest monthly increaseThe US greenback is on course for its maximum giant month-to-month benefit on account that September, with a 2% benefit towards a basket of main currencies as January ended. The boom changed into attributed to marketplace modifications to the tempo and quantity of anticipated hobby fee cuts, stimulated through sturdy US financial facts and competition from important financial institution officials. toward reducing hobby prices. In contrast, the Japanese yen changed into poised for its maximum giant decline towards the greenback in almost a year, falling extra than 4% in January. This is the sharpest decline on account that February 2023, because of falling salary boom and slowing inflation in Japan, which has decreased expectations of hobby fee hikes. Early within the Asian buying and selling day, the greenback remained consistent at $1.0844/euro and barely weaker at 147.23 yen. The greenback index, which tracks americaA forex towards a set of different currencies, changed into final visible at 103.36. Investors are also targeted on the imminent choice through the Federal Reserve, which predicts that US hobby prices will continue to be unchanged. However, the Fed should sign the opportunity of a fee reduction through casting off language similarly fee hikes are beneathneath consideration. According to hobby fee futures, there may be presently approximately a 43% hazard of the Fed slicing hobby prices in March, down appreciably from a 73% hazard at the start of the year. Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist, Alan Ruskin, explains that the marketplace's response to the Fed assembly will probably be pondered withinside the chance of a fee reduction in March. Ruskin elaborates on the connection among this opportunity and the euro/greenback trade fee, noting that a 50-50 hazard is in line for the euro at $1,087, at the same time as a completely predicted hobby fee reduction might push the euro to $1,1080. Conversely, if the March fee reduction is completely discounted, the euro should fall to $1.0660. Before the Fed's choice, financial signs including the shopping managers index survey from China and European inflation facts can be released. Australian inflation facts, barely decrease than economics anticipate, bolstered expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia has ended its hobby fee hike cycle.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD Looking BullishIn our examination of EURUSD, it's crucial to emphasize the existence of a double bottom pattern. This pattern, combined with robust support observed within the Fibonacci levels ranging from 0.5 to 0.6, amplifies the importance of the current scenario. It indicates a compelling scenario for a potential upward trend, potentially leading to a substantial gain in pips. Keep an eye out for further updates, and as customary, approach your trades with assurance.
Long
by HUMCRYPTOCLUB
EURUSD Longs from 1.08300 or 1.08000 back upThis week's bias for this pair aligns with GU, and I'll be aiming to initiate long positions from the demand levels positioned just beneath the current price. Whether it's from the nearby 2-hour demand zone or the 10-hour demand zone situated below, my objective is to buy back up to a supply level or potentially target the equal highs positioned above. Ideally, I'm hoping for price to form a Wyckoff accumulation within my designated demand zones and provide a strong confirmation signal. If this doesn't happen, I'll wait for that zone to be breached, anticipating the spring to occur within the more favorable 10-hour demand zone. Confluences for EURUSD are as follows: - Price has been temporarily bullish to the upside and the 10hr demand zone caused BOS. - I will be anticipating a Wyckoff accumulation to start formulating within my demand region. - A pullback has been initiated from the reaction of the 6-hour supply zone. - Lots of liquidity to the upside in the form of Asian highs and equal highs. - Dollar (DXY) is looking to be bearish so I'm expecting this to be bullish. P.S. While I maintain a bullish stance on this pair, I wouldn't be caught off guard if the reaction from the 6-hour supply zone triggers further downward movement, potentially breaking the structure to the downside. In such a scenario, I'll be more inclined to explore selling opportunities. LAST WEEK OF JANUARY LETS HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK!
Long
by Hassan_fx
3
EURUSD: The ECB's policy decision is the highlight of today's ec The dollar rose slightly early in the day after being mixed in yesterday's trading. Rising Treasury yields of late have supported the greenback. US stocks also saw late declines, although technology stocks again outperformed as the Nasdaq index closed up 0.4%. The S&P 500 managed to rise 0.1% while the Dow closed down 0.3%. US futures are currently flat. In the bond market, the 10-year bond yield in the US decreased 2 basis points to 4.158%. ECB President Lagarde will continue to speak based on the data but traders will keep an eye out for any unexpected comments from her. The market prices the ECB's ability to cut interest rates in April at 72% and expects 127 basis points of interest rate cuts this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD: Euro outlook next weekNext week, the ECB's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday, and important economic indicators from Germany will also be announced, so the euro may fluctuate significantly. This week, a number of central bank officials spoke out against overly optimistic markets about a rate cut in 2024. Next Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting is likely to be too early for ECB President Christine Lagarde to start setting a concrete schedule for interest rates, and markets will wait until the next Governing Council meeting on May 7 for more information. would have to. Next week will see the release of the German and European PMI reports, the IFO annual report and the German Consumer Confidence Index. This data should be closely monitored as the German economy remains weak. EUR/USD broke out of a channel pattern on Tuesday and is currently trading below the 200-day SMA of 1.0850. The current support level for this pair is 1.0787, but resistance areas at 1.0950 and 1.1000 are also observed.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD Shorts from 1.09400 down towards 1.08000EU is currently exhibiting a similar pattern to other pairs, and my current stance for this currency pair is bearish. I'm patiently waiting for the 12hr supply zone to be mitigated, considering it as the nearest opportunity of interest for me. This aligns with the overall higher time frame trend, which is bearish. Upon the mitigation of this zone, my plan involves waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold within the specified area. Ideally, I will be looking for the Asian high within the zone to be swept. Following this occurrence, I will then be looking for selling opportunities back down to address the imbalances left below. Confluences for EU sells are as follows: - 12hr Supply zone caused a BOS to the downside on the higher time frame - Imbalances and liquidity below that needs to get taken as well as a demand zone that needs mitigating. - Overall trend of the market is bearish on the higher time frame. - We are currently witnessing a pullback and I'm looking for my POI to continue this trend. P.S. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I acknowledge the presence of equal highs above my zone, which could potentially lead to a break beyond my supply. In such a scenario, I recognize that price might aim for higher levels to enter a more premium area. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD!
Short
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD: EUR/USD broke through an important technical milestone iThe dollar remains generally in good shape. EUR/USD tested the 200-day moving average during yesterday's trading session before rising to the 1.0890 level. Looking at the short-term trend, sellers are in control with prices still not coming close to testing the 100 hour moving average at 1.0916. The downtrend will still be maintained for now. As rising Treasury yields help strengthen the dollar, the euro is also receiving support from the ECB's outlook review. Going into this year, traders were convinced of the first rate cut in April but that possibility is now being priced at approximately 90%. This comes after opposition from ECB policymakers. That means that while April is still on the table, it is likely that June or July would be a more reasonable option to satisfy the central bank's board of governors. Therefore, if traders lower their pricing on an interest rate cut in April, it will support the Euro at a balanced level. Currently, sellers are still willing to try to maintain the bearish trend.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
Retail Data Shaping EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: 1. US Retail Sales Increase: Recent data shows a 0.6% increase in retail sales in December, marking the strongest pace in three months. This indicates a solid holiday season and a resilient consumer attitude in the US, which could be a positive indicator for the US dollar (USD). 2. Consumer Resilience and Economic Outlook: Despite predictions of a recession, household spending has been surprisingly strong over the past year. However, this momentum is expected to slow down in 2024 due to persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and diminishing savings. This could limit the strengthening of the USD. 3. Market Reaction: The immediate market response to the data was a drop in US Treasuries and stocks, suggesting a scaling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This generally would favor the dollar. 4. State of the US Economy: Manufacturing output showed minimal growth, indicating weakness in that sector. Technical Analysis: 1. Monthly Time Frame: EUR/USD has rejected a key resistance, suggesting a possible bearish reversal. 2. Weekly Time Frame: The pair is in an upward trend and is at a significant support, which could indicate a bounce. 3. Daily Time Frame: There is an overextension of the price, suggesting a bearish correction towards 1.0800 4. 4-Hour Time Frame: A shift towards an upward trend is observed, confirming the possibility of a correction. Conclusion and Strategy: - Short-Term Outlook: The current strength of the dollar, supported by solid retail sales, could keep EUR/USD under pressure. However, the overextension and upward trend in shorter time frames suggest an imminent correction. - Medium-Term Outlook: The expectation of an economic slowdown in the US in 2024 and potential weakness in the manufacturing sector could limit the long-term strengthening of the dollar.
Long
by Wiiso
1
Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Several ECB officials are expressing opposition to rate cuts, potentially helping to curb losses in the EUR/USD, which is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a more than 0.7% drop. Davos has prompted ECB officials to share their views on the Euro Area's prospects and their positions on the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2024. ECB Board Member Gediminas Šimkus, also Chairman of the Lithuanian Central Bank, suggests holding off on a central bank move, but sees the possibility of a cut in the summer. Similarly, ECB Board Member Madis Müller, the Governor of the Central Bank of Estonia, believes expectations for a rate cut are ahead of the current data reality. However, the future direction of EUR/USD remains uncertain, as Fed officials are pushing back against interest rate hikes too, and their influence in the markets may be more significant. Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, whose November comments raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, today (not at Davos) expressed a more cautious outlook on the pace of rate cuts ("I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past"). Monitoring other Fed members' addresses this week will be crucial: Wednesday, Jan 17 09:00: Fed's Bowman Speech 09:00: Fed's Barr Speech 15:00: Fed's Williams Speech Thursday, Jan 18 07:30: Fed's Bostic Speech Friday, Jan 19 16:15: Fed's Daly Speech
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: The USD is quiet with low trading volumeThe dollar was weak in early European trading on Monday as traders weighed the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a U.S. holiday slowed trading volume. At 4:35 p.m. ET (9:35 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.1% higher at 102.242 as the holiday began. Martin Luther King Jr. Data released on Friday showed the U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, increasing traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now has a 78% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in March, compared to a 68% chance a week ago. This week's US statistical calendar is quiet, with the focus on retail sales figures scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, remains resilient despite rising interest rates. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November. Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed President Christoper Waller, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley. The value of the euro rose even though Germany's GDP fell In Europe, the euro/USD pair edged up to 1.0953, even as data showed the eurozone's largest German economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. Last year and he will decrease by the same amount throughout 2023. But despite this weakness, recent inflation data largely confirms the European Central Bank's current thinking, meaning rate cuts are not on the table in the short term, said ECB chief economist Philippe. Lane said Friday. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in December from 2.4% in November.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? The EUR/USD currency pair seems poised for a technical breakout. Analysing the 8-hour chart reveals a consolidation phase since the start of the year, following a decline below 1.1000, with this mark acting as a resistance level on two occasions since then. Currently, EUR/USD is resembling a triangle/flag pattern, suggesting a potential technical breakout. The looming question is: Which direction will the pair break out? There are arguments to be made for both sides of the equation, but perhaps the case for a break to the downside is more convincing? Traders are pricing in an ~80% probability of a Fed rate cut in March. Simultaneously, an European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut for April is also on the horizon. While both central banks might fail to meet these expectations, the likelihood that the Fed pushes back might be lower than that of the ECB. According to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, speaking at the World Economic in Davos, the prospect of ECB rate cuts in 2024 appears highly unlikely. At the same time, he emphasized the persistent threat of geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, which pose a risk to Euro supply chains and energy markets. This ongoing uncertainty could exert pressure on consumer prices, creating a challenging environment that might interfere with any potential rate cuts from the ECB.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD Longs from 1.08000 back upCurrently, EURUSD has been in a prolonged range, gathering significant liquidity. Given the current state of equilibrium, I am not actively seeking trades at this moment. However, I anticipate a potential move to unfold, continuing the bullish trend. For now, I will be patiently waiting for a breakout before considering any trading opportunities. There is another plausible scenario where price breaks above to mitigate the 10-hour supply zone, leading to a bearish reaction. This possibility is valid, considering the imbalances just below that need filling and liquidity that requires sweeping. My confluences for EURUSD buys are as follows: - A 10-hour demand zone below triggered a new CHOCH to the upside. - The overall short-term trend is bullish, aligning with this idea. - Imbalance above the demand signals a favourable reaction at my POI. - Abundant liquidity above, including trend lines and untouched Asian highs. - Price needs to dip to a significant demand level for an upward rally to persist. - I also expect the dollar to keep dropping indicating that EU will keep going up. P.S. As price is still considerably distant from any nearby Points of Interest (POI), I am content to wait patiently and refrain from taking any immediate action until price triggers one of the levels I am monitoring. Have a great trading week ahead!
Long
by Hassan_fx
6