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Forex-currency

GBP/USD — H8 | Jan 13, 2026 | Elliott Wave Outlook 🔎 GBP/USD — H8 | Jan 13, 2026 | Elliott Wave Outlook — Wave 1 completed, market entering consolidation before Wave 3 • On the H8 timeframe, GBPUSD has completed a 5-wave impulse in yellow, topping at 1.35678, which also marks Wave 1/A in green of a higher-degree cycle. • Wave (4) yellow unfolded as a white Triangle, followed by a strong breakout in Wave (5) yellow into the high. • After completing 1/A green, GBPUSD has entered Wave 2/B green, developing as a yellow A–B–C corrective structure. • Wave A yellow has already completed, and the market is currently moving within Wave B yellow. • Once Wave B yellow finishes, GBPUSD is expected to form Wave C yellow to complete the entire corrective phase, before triggering Wave 3/C green — the strongest and most impulsive phase of the cycle. 📌 Primary scenario (Bullish – medium term): • Wait for Wave C yellow to complete, then look for buy opportunities aligned with Wave 3 green. ⛔️ Invalidation level: • A break below 1.30102 invalidates the bullish structure → wave count must be reassessed. 🧭 Trade philosophy: Markets do not reverse after a strong trend — they consolidate to travel further.
Long
by TDVPRE2425
EUR/USD — H1 | Elliott Wave Outlook🔎 EUR/USD — H1 | Elliott Wave Outlook — Correction nearing completion, trend continuation expected • On the H1 timeframe, EURUSD continues to maintain a bullish Elliott Wave structure after completing the W–X–Y corrective phase in teal. • From the 1.17026 low, the market has developed a five-wave impulsive advance in red, with wave (3) extending strongly and topping around 1.18080. • Currently, EURUSD is undergoing a W–X–Y corrective phase in yellow, which most likely represents wave (4) red within the broader bullish structure. • The yellow wave Y is unfolding in a clear A–B–C corrective pattern. • As long as price remains firmly above 1.17380, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact, and wave (5) red is expected to be triggered in the coming sessions. 📌 Preferred scenario (Bullish): • Wait for the completion of the yellow wave Y, then look for buy opportunities aligned with wave (5) red, prioritizing trades that follow structure and momentum. ⛔️ Invalidation level: • A break below 1.17380 → bullish scenario invalidated → wave count reassessment required. 🧭 Trade philosophy: Do not trade inside noise — act only when the structure is complete.
Long
by TDVPRE2425
AUD/JPY — H1 | 22-12-2025 — Wave (ii) white correction### 🔎 AUD/JPY — H1 | 22-12-2025 — Wave (ii) white correction, preparing for continuation of wave (iii) white within wave 5 yellow • On the H1 timeframe, AUDJPY is trading within a **bullish Elliott Wave structure**, unfolding as an **impulsive sequence (i)–(ii)–(iii)–(iv)–(v) in white**. • The initial **wave 1 in yellow** formed as a **leading diagonal**, setting the stage for a strong advance in **wave 3 in yellow** with clear bullish momentum. • After completing **wave 3 in yellow** around the **104.318** area, the market entered a corrective phase in **wave 4 in yellow**, characterized by a shallow correction, indicating weakening selling pressure. • As long as price holds firmly above the **104.141** level, the bullish structure remains intact, and **wave 5 in yellow** is expected to continue unfolding in the upcoming sessions. ### 📌 Preferred scenario (Bullish): • Wait for **wave (ii) white** to complete and look for confirmation signals on lower timeframes to **buy in alignment with wave (iii) white of wave 5 yellow**, prioritizing trades that align with both structure and momentum. ### ⛔ Invalidation: • A break below **104.141** invalidates the scenario and requires a full wave recount. ### 🧭 Trade tips: *“Trade the structure — let the market confirm the wave.”*
Long
by TDVPRE2425
AUD/NZD — H4 | Dec 22, 2025 — Wave 4 (Yellow) correction, prepar🔎 AUD/NZD — H4 | Dec 22, 2025 — Wave 4 (Yellow) correction, preparing for Wave 5 • On the H4 timeframe, AUD/NZD has completed a higher-degree wave (2) in red, unfolding as an Expanding Flat, with wave C red ending in an Ending Diagonal near 1.14213 — a classic signal of bearish exhaustion. • From this low, price has developed an impulsive wave (1) in white, internally structured as waves 1–2–3–4–5 in yellow. • Wave 3 yellow topped around 1.15091, and the market is currently correcting in wave 4 yellow, forming a healthy a–b–c structure in blue. • Once wave 4 yellow completes while structure remains valid, wave 5 yellow is expected to unfold, completing wave (1) white before a larger corrective phase. Preferred scenario (Bullish): • Wait for confirmation of wave 4 yellow completion to buy in alignment with wave 5 yellow, trading with structure and momentum. Invalidation: • A breakdown below the wave 4 yellow low invalidates the scenario and requires a full recount. Trade tip: “When diagonals end, impulse begins — structure always leads price.”
Long
by TDVPRE2425
Potential 500 Pips on EURAUDSell Projection on EURAUD Description has been given just like in the chart Confirmation: Wait for price closes below 1.7811 on 4HTF, the current reference candle, once that is achieved, we can now look for the Valid supply Level as our possible entries. If the condition is not met, the Probability of the setup drops to 50% (Possible Entries) Entry1 BuyLimit@ 1.7870 StopLoss@ 1.7905 Entry 2 SellLimit@ 1.7897 StopLoss@ 1.7944 Target Levels T1@ 1.7696 T2@ 1.7632 T3@1.7381 Average Risk to Reward on each is 1 : 5 You can anticipate this to run between 21:00 UTC ,26th November 2025 up till 2:00UTC, 8th December, 2015
by Ieios
3
GBP/CAD: Is the "Loonie" Losing Its Wings in the AI Era?The British Pound (GBP) has established a new tactical foothold against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold rates at 2.25%. While the headline narrative focuses on interest rate differentials, smart money is pricing in a deeper "divergence trade" between the UK’s service-led resilience and Canada’s resource-heavy vulnerabilities. This analysis dissects why the GBP/CAD pair is moving, looking beyond the central bank transcripts to the structural shifts in technology, cyber-warfare, and innovation that are redefining these two Commonwealth economies. Macroeconomics: The "Dovish" Hold vs. The "Sticky" Service The immediate catalyst is the BoC’s caution. By holding rates at 2.25% a level considered stimulative Governor Tiff Macklem admitted that Q4 GDP is "likely to be weak." * The CAD Drag: Canada’s economy is sputtering due to soft export demand. The central bank is effectively capping the currency’s upside to protect its export engines. * The GBP Floor: Conversely, the UK’s forecasted 0.1% GDP rebound, while modest, signals stability. The Bank of England (BoE) faces "sticky" service inflation, forcing it to keep rates relatively higher than its Canadian counterpart, creating a yield advantage for Sterling. Geopolitics & Geostrategy: Arctic Tensions & Trade Wars The geopolitical risk premium is weighing heavily on the Loonie. * Canada’s Exposure: Canada is currently navigating a volatile trade environment with its southern neighbour. With protectionist rhetoric heating up in Washington, CAD is vulnerable to US trade tariff threats, which could stifle cross-border commerce. * UK’s Arctic Pivot: Interestingly, the UK is reasserting itself in the "High North." The 2025 renewed interest in Arctic security positions the UK as a key security guarantor for the GIUK (Greenland-Iceland-UK) gap, adding a layer of "security currency" status to the Pound that the purely resource-linked CAD lacks. Industry Trends & High-Tech: The AI Scale War Currency strength in 2025 is increasingly correlated with "Sovereign AI" capabilities. The UK is winning this metric. * UK Dominance: As of late 2025, the UK ranks 3rd globally in AI ecosystem strength, boasting nearly double the number of funded AI startups compared to Canada (885 vs. 481). * The Gap: While Canada has world-class research hubs like MILA, it struggles to commercialize at scale. The UK’s "Silicon Fens" and London fintech corridors are attracting significantly more private AI investment, acting as a magnet for foreign capital that supports the GBP. Cyber & Technology: The Infrastructure Risk A hidden driver of CAD weakness is the "Cyber Discount" applied to its energy sector. * The Threat: 2025 has seen a disturbing spike in ransomware attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure. Canada’s vast pipeline network and industrial control systems are prime targets, creating operational risks that global investors are beginning to price in. * UK Resilience: While London faces high attack volumes, its cyber-defence architecture (focused on financial services) is viewed as more mature and "battle-hardened" than the physical operational technology (OT) protecting Canadian resources. Patents & Innovation: The "Grade D" Problem Long-term currency value is driven by productivity, which is fueled by innovation. * Canada’s Lag: Recent reports continue to grade Canada’s patent output as a "D," noting it punches below its weight in converting R&D into intellectual property. * UK Leadership: In contrast, the UK maintains its status as an "Innovation Leader" (125% of the EU average), particularly in high-value sectors like Quantum Computing and Biotech. This intellectual property surplus creates a long-term "quality" bias for GBP over CAD. Conclusion: The Structural Divergence The GBP/CAD uptick is not a blip; it is a signal. The market is favouring the UK’s service-based, AI-integrated economy over Canada’s resource-dependent model, which is currently besieged by soft demand and cyber threats. > Key Takeaway: The "Loonie" is no longer just an oil proxy; it is a tech laggard. Watch the UK’s AI investment flows if they accelerate, GBP/CAD has structural room to run.
Long
by the5erstrading