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Forexn1

EUR/USD may continue to fall? ⤵️Let's take a look at some fundamental news regarding EUR/USD: Commerzbank's economists have reported uncertainty regarding the market reaction to the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision today. There are doubts whether the market reaction to the ECB decision will be "normal," given the current situation. The question is, what will the ECB decide today, and how will the FX market react? According to Commerzbank, the market's reaction to the Euro in the case of a 50 basis points (bps) step by the ECB is not straightforward. For a 50 bps rate step to have a EUR-positive effect today, the market must believe that such a step is appropriate. However, if FX traders perceive the situation of the European financial system as fragile, they might consider a 50 bps step to be a mistake. Consequently, they could conclude that this would require much stronger or earlier ECB rate cuts, leading to a EUR-negative effect. It is not certain whether the FX market thinks in such a manner, and perhaps it is not even likely. That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. Hence, the FX market reaction to the ECB's decision remains highly uncertain. On the other hand, a 25 bps step by the ECB is expected to elicit a positive response from the Euro. However, this depends on how convincing ECB President Christine Lagarde is in assuring the market that if the financial system really does calm down, the "missing" 25 bps will be made up for. If the market is convinced of this possibility, it is more likely to respond positively to a 25 bps step. Therefore, the ECB's decision today and the market's reaction to it remain highly unpredictable. It all boils down to how well the ECB can convince the market that its decision is appropriate and necessary, given the current economic situation in Europe.
Short
by FOREXN1
30
AUD/USD remains in bearish channel with AB=CD pattern forming ⤵️As described in our previous ideas, the AUD/USD is still inside a bearish channel, where the dynamic trend line has worked as support to prevent the price from correcting. In the last session, our attention was focused on the formation of an AB=CD pattern, which sees the Target D at the price of 0.6500 before a new correction. The C point of the pattern had a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and our idea and analysis remain with the short setup bias. Thank you.
Short
by FOREXN1
11
USD/CAD:Oil Weakness and Financial Turmoil Shake Markets ⤴️On Wednesday, the USD/CAD experienced a wild ride due to renewed pressure on oil prices, which weakened the Canadian Dollar and sent the pair to the 1.3800 level. The price pressure on oil started with rumors swirling around Credit Suisse bank, which was seen as a potential victim of the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's financial crisis. This led to some perceived threats attributed to Credit Suisse that could have been tangled up with SVB's situation, causing panic among investors. While all allegations against Credit Suisse's CEO have been denied, the Swiss banking regulator intervened and promised to provide liquidity solutions if needed, which did little to calm markets. The situation triggered a fresh wave of sell-offs among risky assets, with oil prices taking the biggest hit. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below the $70 mark as investors started to worry about surging borrowing costs and the potential cracks in financial systems. The corrective downturn in oil prices that began earlier this week has given a boost to USD/CAD, but falling US Treasury yields are keeping a lid on any appreciation in the US Dollar. The pair is mainly being driven by oil prices, rather than any other factor, as the Bank of Canada has paused its rate hiking cycle. Meanwhile, the US released its Retail Sales figures and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February on Wednesday. The Retail Sales figures were downbeat, with a MoM reading of -0.4% compared to the previous month's 3.2%, and a Control Group reading of 0.5% compared to the previous 2.3%. However, there were some signs of relief in the PPI data, with a MoM reading of -0.1% from the prior 0.3%, and a YoY reading of 4.6% from the prior 5.7%. Overall, the financial turmoil triggered by rumors surrounding Credit Suisse and concerns over oil prices has sent shockwaves through markets, causing investors to worry about the potential impact on global financial systems.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD Struggles Amid Concerns Over New Zealand's Q4 GDP ⤵️Despite a recent uptick in the value of the Kiwi currency, the NZD/USD pair is struggling to overcome intraday losses. The weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP figures from New Zealand have raised concerns about a potential credit rating cut for the country. The recent troubles faced by major banks in the US and Europe have also sparked fears of a return to the 2008 financial crisis, which has had a negative impact on riskier assets like the Antipodeans. Traders are keeping an eye on Goldman Sachs’ economic outlook and China’s threat to European shares as they navigate a sluggish market session. Despite a slight recovery in intraday losses, the NZD/USD pair remains depressed near 0.6160, down for the second consecutive day. The downbeat Q4 GDP figures from New Zealand have weighed heavily on the Kiwi pair, with YoY figures also falling short of expectations. Concerns about New Zealand’s credit rating have been raised due to the nation's current account deficit remaining too large. Meanwhile, the latest bank fallouts in the US and Europe, including Credit Suisse, have heightened fears of another financial crisis. On the positive side, news that Credit Suisse is seeking to borrow up to CHF50 billion from the Swiss National Bank to strengthen liquidity has eased fears somewhat. Anonymous sources have also suggested that US banks are less vulnerable to the Credit Suisse debacle. Furthermore, emergency talks by the Bank of England and market chatter suggesting no immediate negative reaction from the Federal Reserve and ECB during their monetary policy meetings have helped to calm risk aversion. Looking ahead, traders will be watching for any major movements in the bond market and any further developments regarding the bank fallouts. Second-tier US data about employment, manufacturing, and housing activities may also have an impact on the NZD/USD pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD: FIBO Levels and Stochastic Divergence for SHORT ImpulseYesterday, as previously discussed, the price within a Bearish trend experienced a pullback on the dynamic resistance, coinciding with the Fibonacci level area between 50% and 61.8%. This resulted in a potential downward impulse for the price. Furthermore, it is important to note the existence of a Divergence on the Stochastic indicator, which indicates an overbought situation. Considering these factors, it is our professional opinion that a short impulse continuation in the direction of the main trend is likely to occur. As such, it would be prudent for traders to carefully monitor these developments and position themselves accordingly.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
USD/JPY:Pullback 50% Fibo Level For A new LONG Setup USD/JPY bounces back from a one-month low and holds onto slight gains around 133.70, as it snaps a three-day downtrend. The pair benefits from market consolidation following the recent US actions to tame fears arising from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank fallout. Additionally, the recent recovery in US Treasury bond yields after the previous day’s bond market turmoil adds strength to the pair's rebound. Although the US 10-year Treasury bond yields fluctuate around 3.56%, after bouncing off the monthly low of 3.418%, the two-year counterpart rebounds from the lowest levels since September 2022 and prints mild gains of about 4.05% at the time of writing. It is worth noting that heavy bond buying was witnessed the previous day, following joint actions taken by US banking regulators to control the risks emanating from SVB and Signature Bank. While policymakers from the UK, Europe, and some Asia-Pacific majors have ruled out the likelihood of a financial crisis at home after the SVB saga, receding hawkish Fed bets and downbeat US inflation expectations have challenged USD/JPY buyers, amidst US-China tensions and the ongoing SVB talks.
Long
by FOREXN1
20
GOLD prices declined slightly after reaching new high of $1,915Yesterday the gold has continued to grow over the 61.8% Fibonacci level without seeing a rebound in that area, but today the price, after reaching the 1915 area, seems ready to have a short impulse to come back inside the bearish channel . Despite hitting a fresh monthly high around $1,915 the price of gold has slightly declined on the day, primarily due to falling US Treasury bond yields. Gold is well-known for its inverse correlation with US Treasury (UST) bond yields, but its correlation with real UST bond yields is stronger than with nominal yields. Recently, the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and speculation surrounding the deteriorating US financial system have caused market participants to scale back bets on an aggressive rate-hiking path from the Federal Reserve (Fed). As a result, UST yields have been decreasing upon dwindling expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike from the Fed at the March 22 meeting. Investors are likely to remain indecisive until the Fed provides more clarity on the spread of the contagion in the US banking sector. Many market forecasters have shifted their view on the Fed's rate-hiking plan, with no consensus view for the March FOMC meeting. One argument in favor of the Fed's rate-hiking cycles is their urgency to "do whatever it takes" to control inflation. However, the Fed cannot continue to hike rates while underlying issues in the financial system persist. The US economic calendar features the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, with attention focusing on the sticky service-led inflationary portion, which is the Fed's focus. If the inflation reading comes in higher than expected, the Fed will face a difficult situation as the service sector is essential to most developed economies and service-led inflation tends to be irreversible.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD bounces off daily low post-UK jobs data - SHORTGBP/USD is drawing some dip-buying interest, but the lack of strong follow-through on the intraday uptick is notable. Despite mixed UK jobs data, the British Pound receives some support as it fails to push back against Bank of England (BoE) rate hike expectations. However, the pair faces resistance as the USD demand revives with rebounding US bond yields. Following the release of UK monthly employment data, GBP/USD has modestly recovered from intraday losses and climbed to the upper end of its daily range during the early European session on Tuesday. Despite this, the spot prices remain below the one-month high of 1.2200 reached on Monday. The Office for National Statistics reports that the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits has decreased by 11.2K in February, slightly below the anticipated 12.4K. The previous month's reading has also been revised to a fall of 30.3K in the Claimant Count Change, from the originally estimated 12.9K. Additionally, the jobless rate has held steady at 3.7% during the three months to January, instead of the expected slight increase to 3.8%. These figures, to a larger extent, offset the slowdown in UK wage growth data and do not push back against the market's bets for additional rate hikes by the BoE later this month, lending some support to the British Pound. However, the USD demand is impeding the GBP/USD pair's upside momentum as the US bond yields recover. The increase in US bond yields is a result of the US authorities' move to limit the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's (SNB) collapse and is also attributable to some repositioning trades ahead of the US consumer inflation figures. Nevertheless, the expectation that the US central bank will slow or even halt its interest rate-hiking cycle due to the strain on the US banking system could limit any meaningful upside for the US bond yields and restrain the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Traders are likely to remain cautious and await the release of the crucial US CPI report scheduled for the early North American session. This week's US economic docket also features the Producer Price Index (PPI) and monthly Retail Sales figures on Wednesday, which should influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair. However, the focus will remain on next week's key central bank event risks - the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, followed by the BoE policy decision on Thursday.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD is sliding down from the 0.6700 level. Waiting US CPIAhead of the US CPI release, AUD/USD remains cautious with a downside bias intact. The Fed's next move for a rate hike plan is uncertain, and market forecasters are no longer expecting a significant rate hike. During the early Asian session, AUD/USD is trading flat after reaching 0.6700 in the previous session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is soft, and the market is anticipating the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Despite the backstop provided by the Fed and US Treasury, AUD/USD has not gained much ground. The Fed unveiled a backstop plan on Sunday to counteract any damage to the US banking system caused by Silicon Valley Bank's fallout, which resulted in a relatively mild risk-on environment during the NY session on Monday. With the recent events, the market is proceeding with caution ahead of the US CPI data release. Key market forecasters are revising their expectations for a 50 basis points Fed rate hike on March 22. The banking system is struggling with non-performing assets due to the pressure of higher borrowing costs, which is particularly problematic for high-leverage businesses such as tech companies. A consistently rising interest rate would exacerbate the issue. Furthermore, elevated inflation levels are creating a double whammy for central banks, placing them in a tricky position. The upcoming US CPI data will be interesting to watch as it adds further complexity for the Federal Reserve.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
GOLD:1890 -1900 Area FIBO Area Resistance - Possible Reversal ?Over the past four days, XAU/USD has been experiencing a notable surge and is currently up by around 1%. This rise in gold price can be attributed to the decreasing US Treasury yields, which are causing the market to be on high alert for any indication of a 50 basis points rate hike during the upcoming March FOMC Meeting. Earlier in the Asian session, XAU/USD received a boost from the weaker US Dollar following the intervention of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury to rescue banks such as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank. However, the recent rise in borrowing costs throughout the US is putting a strain on financial health, resulting in the market facing the fallout from the SVB incident. Due to its inverse correlation with US Treasury yields, Gold is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the yield curve's shorter end. The significant drop in yields that occurred last Friday, after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, has been putting substantial downward pressure on the US Dollar and global equity markets. In the coming days, the US economic calendar will feature the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. However, the market is already apprehensive ahead of the event, and the Fed's blackout period, which began recently, is further adding to the market's fragile dynamics. Therefore, it is likely that such sensitivity will continue until the March 22 FOMC Meeting. Today the GOLD is approaching the 1890.000/1900 area where the Fibonacci levels of 50% and 61.8% in confluence with the resistance area may give a turning point for the price to come back in the bearish direction. This area will be crucial to understanding if the price will continue to grow or if a reversal will happen
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
8
AUD/USD: Dwindling bets for a drop to 0.6500 – UOBHold on to your seats folks! AUD/USD bulls are ecstatic as they celebrate the largest daily gains seen since early February, hovering around the 0.6665-70 hurdle during the early hours of Monday in Europe. However, the Aussie pair's latest inaction has been causing quite a stir in the market as traders scramble to understand what's happening. Could this be linked to its struggle to overcome the five-week-old descending resistance line? And what's with the broadly risk-on mood and the weakened US Dollar? So many questions, so few answers! The resistance posed by the five-week-old descending resistance line has left traders perplexed and scrambling to make sense of the situation. Will the bullish momentum of the AUD/USD pair continue or is this just a fleeting moment of excitement? The ambiguity surrounding the situation is causing a great deal of uncertainty and unpredictability in the market. Adding to the burstiness of the situation is the market's overall optimistic sentiment towards risk, coupled with the weakened state of the US Dollar. What could this mean for the future of the AUD/USD pair? Will it continue to experience upward momentum or will the optimism fade away, leaving traders scratching their heads once again? In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair's recent activity has left the market in a state of perplexity and burstiness. The resistance posed by the five-week-old descending resistance line, coupled with the broadly risk-on mood and the weakened US Dollar, has traders scrambling for answers. The future of the AUD/USD pair remains uncertain, leaving traders on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what will happen next.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
APPLE:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. Apple is a technology company that was founded in 1976, almost half a century ago. Today, it is the world's most valuable company, with a market value of $2.43 trillion. Despite a difficult 2022, where its stock price fell 27 percent along with other tech companies, Apple's stock has grown more than 20% since the beginning of this year as tech stocks make a comeback on Wall Street. Despite this growth, Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 is fairly low compared to competitors like Amazon and Walt Disney. If you're an investor looking to invest in Apple, it's important to consider some key aspects of the company. One of the most important factors to consider is the company's focus on developing exceptional products. By maintaining high standards and focusing on product development, Apple has been able to charge premium prices and foster consumer loyalty. In fact, as of September 2022, Apple has exceeded a 50% market share for smartphones, outpacing Alphabet's Android operating system. This is a significant accomplishment, as consumers tend to stick with their preferred operating system for extended periods. Additionally, expanding market share enables Apple to cross-promote its product line, providing users with complementary products that share a similar design language. Apple's strong product line has propelled the company's stock up by 248% over the past five years and 911% over the past decade. Furthermore, Apple's revenue has increased by 48% to $394 billion since 2018, while operating income has surged by 68% to $119 billion. Another important factor to consider is the company's focus on maximizing iPhone profits. The iPhone segment earned 52% of the company's total revenue last year, earning $205.4 billion and up 7% YoY. As such, Apple's smartphone business is critical to the company's success, making upcoming changes in iPhone production promising for long-term profits. For instance, Bloomberg recently reported that Apple plans to replace telecom and WiFi/Bluetooth chips from companies such as Qualcomm and Broadcom with its own versions by 2025. Additionally, the media site reported that Apple plans to stop using iPhone displays from Samsung and LG as early as 2024 and switch to its own versions. Ending costly partnerships in favor of in-house designed components will likely boost iPhone profit margins and strengthen the business by reducing Apple's reliance on outside technology companies. Apple is also strengthening its business by expanding into other areas, such as its subscription-based services business. Apple Music, TV+, iCloud, News+, Fitness+, and Arcade are thriving offerings that have doubled revenue growth, up 14% YoY to $78.1 billion, in fiscal 2022. The segment's 71.7% profit margin confirms the profitability of the digital business, while the same figure for products was 36.3% for the year. It is also reported that Apple is diversifying its product line by entering the augmented/virtual reality (AR/VR) market this year and launching a new headset. According to Grand View Research, the AR market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.9% through at least 2030, while the VR market will grow by 15% in the same time frame. Thus, Apple's new headset could bring significant profits as the markets evolve. Overall, Apple has established itself as a solid growth stock over the years, and upcoming events make it a screaming buy this month. If you're considering investing in Apple, be sure to keep these key factors in mind. By focusing on product development, maximizing iPhone profits, and expanding into other areas, Apple has positioned itself for continued success in the future.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD:UOB Group believe that EUR may fall back below 1.0500Before the European market opens, the EUR/USD pair is maintaining its position just below 1.0600. Despite a slight rebound in the US Dollar, the pair is holding onto modest gains. However, market sentiment is turning negative in anticipation of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report and a speech from ECB Chief Lagarde. Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group believe that EUR/USD may fall back below the 1.0500 level. Key Quotes 24-hour view: "Yesterday, we predicted that EUR/USD would trade between 1.0520 and 1.0590, but it rose to a high of 1.0590 before settling at 1.0580 (+0.34%). It may continue to rise slightly today, but it is unlikely to break through strong resistance at 1.0630 (with minor resistance at 1.0605). Support is at 1.0560, and a drop below 1.0540 would suggest that the mild upward pressure has eased." Next 1-3 weeks: "Our update from two days ago (March 8, when the spot was at 1.0550) is still valid. As we mentioned, downward momentum has improved somewhat after Tuesday's sharp drop. Overall, as long as EUR/USD does not rise above 1.0630 (with no change in 'strong resistance' from yesterday), it is expected to move lower towards 1.0485."
Short
by FOREXN1
19
GOLD: US NFP in focus - Possible New Short Setup - READ!The price of gold has dropped to its intraday low and has given up its biggest daily gain in a week due to a volatile trading session. The Bank of Japan's inaction regarding inflation concerns has failed to calm the markets, while geopolitical worries and the US dollar's recovery from its intraday low have also put pressure on XAU/USD. Key central bank announcements and the US employment data for February will be significant in providing fresh impetus for the market. Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading near $1,828, as investors anticipate the US jobs report after a tumultuous move on the Bank of Japan's inaction on Friday. The latest weakness in the price of gold is linked to the risk-off sentiment rather than the US Treasury bond yield and the US dollar, which have both rebounded recently. The Bank of Japan has expressed inflation concerns and is joining the New York Fed in challenging policy doves, suggesting more rate hikes and questioning economic growth, which is teasing gold sellers. The US Dollar has remained weak due to mixed signals from the previous day's US employment data, which has supported the price of gold. Additionally, positive news from Bloomberg regarding China's consumer spending showing signs of a strong rebound, along with hopes for more stimulus from China and the US, could be beneficial for the gold price. However, the cautious sentiment ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the latest risk-off mood, coupled with geopolitical fears, are weighing on market sentiment. Among them, US President Joe Biden's budget proposal for 2024 and the US partnership with the UK and Australia for nuclear submarines are affecting risk appetite and the XAU/USD. The market will closely observe the US jobs report for February as traders have recently lowered their bets on a 50 bps rate hike in March.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
8
NZD/USD:Price will continue to Drop After NFP - SHORTInvestor anxiety ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has caused the NZD/USD currency pair to fall below 0.6100. The USD Index has rebounded strongly, indicating a recovery in the risk-off sentiment after correcting near 105.13. An increase in the labor cost index could confirm Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's fears of persistent inflation and signal more aggressive rate hikes in the future. As the FX market awaits the NFP data, projections suggest that the US economy added 203K payrolls in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%. The Average Hourly Earnings data could potentially impact market sentiment. Higher wages offered by US firms due to a labor shortage are offsetting the impact of rate hikes from the Fed, and the labor cost index is expected to rise further to 4.7% from the previous release of 4.4%. On the New Zealand front, weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from China indicates that the expected recovery in domestic demand has not materialized despite reopening measures. New Zealand is one of China's major trading partners, and lower demand could weaken NZ exports and affect the New Zealand Dollar.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
The USD/JPY currency pair is expected to continue its upward..The USD/JPY currency pair is expected to continue its upward trend above 137.00 as the Bank of Japan maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy. The USD/JPY currency pair is currently experiencing reduced volatility around 136.65, following a period of heightened volatility due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain an ultra-easy monetary policy. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has implemented this policy in response to the lack of inflationary pressure caused by stagnant domestic demand and wages in the Japanese economy.
Long
by FOREXN1
2
EUR/USD risks a gradual decline to 1.0485 – UOBUOB Group's Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang believe that EUR/USD may decline further in the coming weeks and could reach the 1.0485 level. Key Quotes: In the 24-hour view, the EUR was expected to weaken further, but the major support level at 1.0485 was unlikely to be broken. Another support level at 1.0530 was identified, and the EUR dipped to 1.0523 before trading sideways for the rest of the sessions. The EUR is now in a consolidation phase and is likely to trade within a range of 1.0520 to 1.0575 today. In the next 1-3 weeks, there is not much to add to yesterday's update, as downward momentum has improved since Tuesday's sharp drop. However, as long as the EUR does not move above 1.0630, it is likely to trend lower towards 1.0485, with strong resistance at 1.0650.
Short
by FOREXN1
29