EUR/USD 1-Hour Rising Channel – Support Zone & Potential Upside!Chart Breakdown & Technical Insights
Rising Channel Structure
The chart clearly shows EUR/USD trading within a rising channel, marked by higher highs (red arrows) and higher lows (green arrows) forming parallel support and resistance trendlines.
Key Support Zone & Bounce Potential
The price is currently sitting near the ascending trendline support, highlighted by the shaded gray box and emphasized with a circled area. Many analysts note that this lower boundary—around the 1.1690 level—serves as crucial support on a broader time frame
.
Short-Term Momentum Indicators
According to recent technical calls, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias in the rising channel. However, some momentum indicators, such as RSI, hint at weakening strength—particularly when higher price highs are not matched with higher RSI peaks, suggesting a bearish divergence
Forex Crunch
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Potential Upside Trajectory
Should the lower channel support hold, the chart suggests a rebound toward mid-channel or potentially up to the upper boundary. Analysts highlight the 1.1720–1.1750 area as a near-term resistance, with the upper channel boundary closer to 1.1850
Alternative Scenario – Breakdown Risk
If EUR/USD breaks below the channel (below ~1.1690), the bullish structure may falter. That could expose the pair to deeper pullbacks, possibly testing lower support levels around 1.1650 or lower
.
** Summary Table**
Scenario Likely Outcome
Bounce off support Move up toward mid-channel (~1.172) or channel top (~1.185)
Breakdown below support Decline toward lower support zones (1.1650 and below)
Conclusion & Strategy Snapshot
The price is positioned at a critical support within a well-defined rising channel.
The bullish favored path: a rebound from the lower trendline toward resistance levels.
The bearish risk: a breakdown would shift momentum, possibly leading to deeper retracements.
Monitor for price action signals (e.g. bounce, candlestick patterns), RSI behavior, and behavior around these key levels.
Forextrading
Cognitive Biases on the Chart: Spot Them Before They Cost YouMarkets have enough enemies: central banks, unexpected earnings misses, rogue tweets from billionaires. The last thing you need is your own brain quietly kneecapping your trades.
Yet, that’s exactly what happens every day — traders falling prey to cognitive biases, those sneaky mental shortcuts that can distort judgment, inflate confidence, and drain your account.
Let’s pull back the curtain on the biggest culprits.
💍 Anchoring Bias: Marrying a Trade
Ever fall in love with a number? Traders do this all the time. Anchoring bias happens when you fixate on a past price and let it lead your present decisions.
Example: You bought C3 AI NYSE:AI at $45 a pop. Now it’s under $20, and you refuse to sell because “it’ll get back to $50 and beyond.” Newsflash: the market doesn’t care about your entry. Anchoring keeps you tethered to arbitrary price points while the trend moves on without you.
👉 How to counter it : Use hard data, not nostalgia. If the chart screams breakdown, like the recent drop in NYSE:AI thanks to a sales disaster , stop waiting for a magical return to your anchor. Trade the price action, not the ghost of your buy button.
😌 Loss Aversion: Pain > Pleasure
Behavioral economists tell us that losing $100 feels about twice as bad as winning $100 feels good. Traders know this instinctively — which is why they often let losers run and cut winners short.
Think of it: you close a trade that’s up 5% because you “don’t want to lose the gains.” Meanwhile, you let the -20% red candle sit there because “it’s only a loss if I sell.”
👉 How to counter it : Flip the script. Place stop-losses and honor them religiously, especially in peak earnings season . Train your brain to view losses as part of the game — like paying rent to the market for playing on its field. Or tuition fee for your hands-on education.
🔊 Confirmation Bias: The Echo Chamber Trade
You think Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is going to $5,000. So, naturally, you seek out influencers, news, and even memes that validate your thesis, while conveniently ignoring that pesky Fed statement hinting at liquidity tightening.
This is confirmation bias: curating your information diet to make yourself feel smart, secure, and validated.
👉 How to counter it : Actively hunt for disconfirming evidence. If you’re long, force yourself to read the bear case. If it rattles you, that’s a sign your conviction might be built on shaky ground. Also, Ethereum has indeed been on a pump so strong , you’d believe it’s almost unstoppable.
💫 Recency Bias: Yesterday = Forever
Markets swing, sometimes violently. Recency bias tricks you into believing that whatever just happened will keep happening. The FX:GBPUSD advanced last Thursday ? Must keep climbing further.
Traders caught in this loop over-leverage into recent patterns, forgetting that markets are professional curveball pitchers.
👉 How to counter it : Zoom out. Intraday candles may trick you into seeing things that aren’t there in the long run. Daily, weekly and monthly charts often tell a different story.
💪 Gambler’s Fallacy: “I’m Due” Syndrome
Every roulette player knows this one: if red’s hit five times in a row, black must be next. Traders fall for the same illusion. If FX:EURUSD has surged for eight straight sessions , surely it must drop… right?
Wrong. The market doesn’t know it “owes anything.” Trends can persist longer than your margin account can survive. Reminder time: John Maynard Keynes' famously said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
👉 How to counter it : Respect momentum. Use indicators like RSI or moving averages to spot genuine exhaustion, not just wishful thinking.
😎 Overconfidence Bias: I’m Smarter Than Them
This one’s pretty widespread. After a few wins, traders start believing they’ve cracked the code. Suddenly, leverage dials up, position sizes balloon, and risk management gets left on read.
Markets love humbling overconfident traders. That “can’t miss” setup? It misses. That oversized bet? Blown up. Overconfidence is why many promising traders don’t survive past year one.
👉 How to counter it : Journal your trades . Cold, hard data has a way of deflating ego bubbles. And size positions consistently — the market doesn’t care if you “feel” more confident this time.
🐑 Herd Mentality: Everyone Can’t Be Wrong… Right?
If all of Reddit says “buy the dip,” surely they can’t be wrong. But if you’re hearing it from everyone, odds are the move already happened. Herd mentality gives comfort but rarely alpha.
It explains bubbles, FOMO runs, and why traders pile into a hot stock minutes before it tanks.
👉 How to counter it : If you’re chasing a move because everyone else is, pause. Ask: what’s my actual edge here? If the answer is “none,” step away.
💯 The Meta-Bias: Thinking You Have None
The cruel twist? Once you know about these biases, you might think you’ve conquered them. But that may not be the case. Awareness helps, but biases are hardwired into human behavior.
That’s why risk management exists. Stop-losses, adequate leverage, proper diversification — they’re not just tools, they’re counter-bias survival kits.
🙌 Final Word: Outsmarting Yourself
The market isn’t your enemy (unless you view BlackRock, Ken Griffin, the hedge fund bros, and other retail traders as enemies). Anchors, overconfidence, herds, recency — these are real chart criminals draining accounts in broad daylight.
Smart traders don’t try to eliminate biases. They build guardrails to minimize the damage. Because at the end of the day, you can’t reprogram human psychology. But you can protect your portfolio from it.
👉 Off to you : Are you tempted to “average down because it’s due” or “let it ride because I’m on fire?” Share your thoughts in the comment section!
Market Analysis: EUR/GBP Attempts to Find SupportMarket Analysis: EUR/GBP Attempts to Find Support
EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses above 0.8600.
Important Takeaways for EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3500.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP, the pair started a steady decline from well above 0.8700. The Euro traded below 0.8650 against the British Pound.
The EUR/GBP chart shows that the pair even declined below 0.8620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 0.8596 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a move above 0.8620 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8743 swing high to the 0.8596 low.
The pair is now facing resistance near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.8635. The next major barrier for the bulls could be the 50% Fib retracement at 0.8670.
A close above 0.8670 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8685. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8740 pivot.
Immediate support sits near 0.8620. The first key zone sits at 0.8595. A downside break below 0.8595 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8550.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Market Analysis: GBP/USD Pushes HigherMarket Analysis: GBP/USD Pushes Higher
GBP/USD is showing strength above 1.3450 and 1.3500.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD Analysis Today
- The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.3500.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3400. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3475 against the US Dollar.
The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3500. The pair even climbed above 1.3550 and traded as high as 1.3594. Recently, there was a pullback below 1.3575 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3399 swing low to the 1.3594 high.
However, the bulls were active near the 1.3520 support. The pair is again rising above 1.3540. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3550.
On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3575. The next hurdle for the bulls could be 1.3595. A close above 1.3595 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3640.
Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.3720. On the downside, the bulls might remain active near the same trend line at 1.3550. If there is a downside break below 1.3550, the pair could accelerate lower.
The first major support is at 1.3520, below which the pair could test the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3495. The next key area for the bulls could be 1.3475, below which the pair could test 1.3445. Any more losses could lead it toward 1.3400.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Gold (XAU/USD) 15m Chart AnalysisGold is currently holding above the 3,345 support zone, aligned with the 200 EMA (blue line). Price tested this support area and showed a bullish reaction, indicating potential demand.
🔑 Key Levels:
Support: 3,344 – 3,345 zone
Resistance: 3,357
📈 Bias:
If price sustains above the highlighted demand zone, we may see a bullish continuation toward the 3,357 resistance level. The projection suggests a possible pullback before continuing higher.
⚠️ Watch out:
A clean break below 3,344 could invalidate this setup and open the way for further downside.
AUDCHF: Shark completion at channel supportAUDCHF is sitting right at a key confluence zone. Price has already broken the daily trendline and is retesting inside the ascending channel.
On H4, we have a potential Shark/alt Bat completing around 0.5240, right at the channel support. This area is lining up with harmonic completion + structure support, so I expect buyers to step in. I’ll wait for H1 confirmation to avoid a trap, but the bias is bullish as long as 0.5215 holds.
Targets remain 0.5285 first, then 0.5320 if momentum continues.
GBPJPY: Bullish Trend Will Continue 🇬🇧🇯🇵
2 important events these week indicate that GBPJPY will most likely
remain bullish.
First, the price violated a falling trend line and closed above that,
then, we saw a confirmed break of structure BoS and a formation
of a new higher high.
Bullish sentiment will most likely continue to prevail.
Next resistance - 200.6
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GBPCHFGBPCHF price is near the main support zone 1.07101-1.06714. If the price cannot break through the 1.06714 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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GBPAUDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPAUD?
The GBP/AUD pair has reached a significant resistance zone.
We anticipate some consolidation or choppy movement in this area, followed by a potential bearish reversal toward lower support levels.
As long as price remains below the resistance, the bias remains bearish.
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
XAUUSD Bullish Trend Continuation: Potential Move to $3,400!The price action shows a higher high ("high") and a higher low ("low"), which are characteristic of an uptrend. An upward trendline has been established, connecting a series of higher lows, which is acting as a dynamic support level. A significant horizontal support zone has also been identified around the $3,260 - $3,280 price range, where the price previously found support.
Recently, the price experienced a pullback and bounced off the upward trendline. The analysis anticipates a continuation of the upward momentum toward a key resistance zone. This resistance zone is located around the $3,400 - $3,420 level. A specific target price of $3,408.833 is highlighted within this zone, suggesting a potential area where the upward movement might pause or reverse.
The chart includes a potential corrective wave pattern labeled with "C"s, indicating a recent three-wave pullback within the larger trend. The current price is shown at $3,353.520, positioned above both the horizontal support and the upward trendline, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
NZDUSD; Heikin Ashi Trade Idea📈 Hey Traders!
Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach:
🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe.
🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games.
❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload.
❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances.
❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen.
✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style.
✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups.
✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset.
💬 Let’s Talk:
💡Do you trade supply & demand too ?
💡What’s your go-to timeframe ?
💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ?
📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share.
Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
Update on the Nasdaq trade idea I shared last night.An update on the trade idea of NASDAQ last night where I was anticipating a buy from the marked zone with other possible Point Of Interested marked out aswell.
Price behaved exactly the way I was anticipating, even though it hasn't went really far as of yet.
Gold Price Faces Key Resistance — Can Bulls Break $3,440?The XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) 1-hour chart shows a strong bullish structure within an upward channel, supported by higher highs and a recent ATH (All-Time High) retest.
Resistance Zone: $3,410 – $3,440 is acting as a significant supply area. Price may face selling pressure here.
Support Levels: First support lies near $3,300 (supply zone), followed by the $3,225–$3,250 demand zone.
Trend: The price is respecting the upward trendline, but a break below could trigger a retest of the green supply zone.
Bullish Scenario: A breakout and close above $3,440 could lead to a continuation toward $3,475+.
Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the resistance zone with a break below $3,300 could push price toward the $3,225 support.
Overall, gold is currently in a bullish trend, but needs to overcome the $3,440 barrier for further upside momentum.
Australian Dollar Retreats from August HighsAustralian Dollar Retreats from August Highs
This week, forex traders’ attention is firmly on the AUD/USD market following key news releases from Australia:
→ Tuesday: Interest rate decision. According to ForexFactory, analysts’ forecasts were confirmed as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.60%.
→ Today: Labour market statistics revealed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.
This dynamic fundamental backdrop has driven a rich technical setup on the AUD/USD chart, where bearish sentiment currently prevails.
Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart
Since last month, AUD/USD price movements have been forming a descending channel (highlighted in red), and this week’s reversal from the August high reinforces its relevance.
Key factors emphasising the market’s bearish bias include:
→ Double top pattern formed by recent highs A and B. Notably, the long upper wicks of the candlesticks reflect increasing selling pressure.
→ The August upward move, marked by purple trendlines, may represent a corrective bear flag within the dominant downtrend.
→ Bearish RSI divergence – present not only between highs A and B, but also relative to the 7 July peak.
Potential Support Levels:
→ Lower purple trendline;
→ Line Q, which divides the upper half of the channel into two quarters;
→ The 0.65 psychological level – previously defended strongly by bulls, as evidenced by the wide bullish candle on 12 August, when price surged easily (a sign of buying imbalance).
These supports collectively form a key demand zone (shaded in purple). Bears will need significant momentum to break through this area and extend the prevailing downtrend in AUD/USD through August 2025.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
What Is the Evening Star Candlestick Pattern?What Is the Evening Star Candlestick Pattern?
Candlestick patterns offer traders a way to read price action and spot potential changes in momentum. One notable pattern is the evening star, a three-candle formation that signals the start of a possible downtrend. This article breaks down what the evening star looks like, how it works, and how traders typically use it.
What Is the Evening Star Candlestick Pattern?
The evening star is a three-candle pattern that traders watch for after a strong upward move. It’s considered a bearish reversal pattern, signalling that bullish momentum is fading. The setup consists of three candles:
- The first candle is a large bullish candle—it shows a clear upward direction.
- The second is much smaller. This middle candle—the star—reflects hesitation. Buyers and sellers are more balanced, and the market’s pace slows.
- The third candle acts as confirmation. It’s a solid bearish candle that closes deep into the body of the first.
The middle candle also often gaps up from the first, especially in stocks or indices, but gaps aren’t essential. What matters is the sequence: strength, indecision, reversal. The further the final candle closes into the body of the first, the stronger the pattern is considered.
Evening stars can appear on any timeframe, but many traders look for them on the daily chart where the signals tend to be clearer. It’s not a pattern to act on blindly—but in the right context, such as after a sustained bullish trend, it’s a useful sign that buyers might be losing control.
The Psychology Behind the Evening Star
It may be always useful to frame the formations like the evening star candle pattern in the context of market psychology.
Here, the first bullish candle signals buyer confidence. They drive prices higher and the candle closes strongly. The next candle is smaller, suggesting that momentum is slowing. Buyers aren’t pushing as hard, and sellers start to step in.
When the third candle closes strongly bearish, it confirms that sentiment is changing. Sellers are now in control, and previous buying strength fades. This shift often happens at the end of an extended upward movement, where fewer buyers are willing to bid the price up and begin closing positions.
How Traders May Use the Evening Star Candlestick Formation
The evening star may be a useful part of a trader’s toolkit, especially when it lines up with other pieces of analysis.
Opening and Closing a Trade
The evening star pattern candlesticks become more meaningful when they appear around known areas of resistance or previous swing highs. If the market’s been edging closer to a clear level—like a horizontal resistance line, Fibonacci retracement, or trendline—and then an evening star forms, it can add weight to the idea that the rally is weakening. Some traders also watch for patterns forming near round numbers or psychological price points.
If traders notice an evening star pattern occurring at a resistance level, they typically look for confluence using another indicator. The RSI might signal a bearish divergence, the price may be piercing an upper Bollinger Band, or it could also be bouncing from a 200-period EMA. Volume can be another factor—rising volume on the third candle can signal more participation behind the selling.
Once a trader has confidence that a bearish reversal is likely underway, they often use the candles following the third candlestick as an entry trigger. A stop loss might be set above the middle candle’s high, while take-profit targets might be placed at an area where a bullish reversal might occur, like a support level. Some might simply trail a stop to take advantage of the strong downtrend or exit when an indicator/candlestick pattern signals that bearish momentum is fading.
Marking Potential Trend Shifts
Some traders use the evening star to flag potential trend exhaustion. While they may not act on the signal (e.g. they are bullish overall and not willing to take shorts yet), the presence of an evening star can suggest the uptrend is vulnerable. They may prepare to buy a pullback, partially close an existing long position, or start watching for further bearish signals.
Example Trades
In the example above, we see a slight rally in AUD/USD in a broader downtrend (off-screen). Price initially pierces the upper Bollinger Band, with slight rejections visible in the upper wicks. After a brief dip, the market retests highs and finds resistance. At this point, the pattern forms, with confirmation coming from relatively weak candles afterwards. Price then closes through the midline of the Bollinger Bands, providing full confirmation of a bearish reversal.
In this second example, we can see a failed evening star. Here, Amazon (AMZN) gaps up over two consecutive days. That leads the 50-period EMA to slope up and cross above its 200-period counterpart—a clear bullish signal.
In this context, it may be better to ignore the signal. The market continues to move higher in an uptrend with consecutive bullish gaps, confirmed by the EMA crossover, indicating a lower probability the pattern will work successfully. Like any pattern, the evening star is expected to be more reliable when contextual factors align, such as in the AUD/USD example.
Strengths and Limitations of the Evening Star
The evening star has its strengths and limitations. To rely on the evening star in trading, it’s worth being aware of both sides.
Strengths
- Clear visual structure: The three-candle formation is straightforward, especially on higher timeframes.
- Logical: The pattern reflects an evident change in momentum that shifts from buying to selling pressure.
- Useful in a wider toolkit: When combined with other forms of analysis (resistance levels, overbought signals, strong volume), it can help traders pinpoint potential turning points and offer an entry.
Limitations
- Requires confirmation: On its own, the pattern doesn’t confirm a downtrend. It’s a potential signal, but not a guarantee.
- Less reliable in choppy markets: In sideways or low-volume markets, evening stars usually produce false signals.
- Subject to interpretation: Candle size, wicks, and placement can vary, which means not every setup is clean or tradable.
The Bottom Line
The evening star pattern offers traders a structured way to identify potential turning points in the market. Its three-candle formation makes it popular among those seeking greater confirmation than single-candle patterns.
FAQ
What Does an Evening Star Candle Pattern Mean?
It’s a three-candle formation that appears at the end of a solid uptrend. An evening star in trading indicates a potential bearish reversal or a short-term downward movement depending on market conditions and the timeframe used.
Is the Evening Star Bullish or Bearish?
The evening star is considered a bearish pattern that shows buyer exhaustion. A third long bearish candle reflects a change in the market sentiment.
How Do an Evening Star and a Hanging Man Differ?
The evening star is a three-candle pattern showing a gradual change in momentum. The hanging man is a single-candle pattern, with a small body and long lower wick. Both are bearish reversal signals, but the hanging man typically requires greater confirmation.
How Do a Shooting Star and an Evening Star Differ?
The shooting star is a one-candle pattern with a long upper wick and a small body that signals rejection at higher prices. The evening star is a three-candle pattern. Both formations reflect a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XAUUSD – Channel Breakdown & Order Block ReactionPrice has broken below the ascending channel 📈 after failing to hold higher highs. A strong bearish drop has pushed price toward the 15M Order Block (OB) 📦 around 3,335–3,345, which may act as a demand zone.
🔍 Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish Reversal 🐂 – Buyers defend the OB, pushing price back above 3,360 and possibly toward 3,380+.
2️⃣ Further Drop 🐻 – If the OB fails, sellers could target lower liquidity zones.
⚡ Volume spikes during the breakdown show strong selling pressure, but the OB zone remains the key battleground for the next move.
Short CADJPY and USDJPY, Swing Trade Trading Idea: Short CADJPY & USDJPY
Date: August 14, 2025
Strategy Type: Short-term bearish play on JPY crosses
📰 Key News Drivers
- Japan GDP Data (Q2 Preliminary):
- QoQ: 0.0% (flat growth)
- YoY: -0.2% (mild contraction)
- GDP Deflator YoY: 3.3% (strong inflation signal)
- USDJPY Technical Outlook:
- Current price: ~146.60
- Bearish momentum confirmed by moving averages
- Key support: 146.386
- Break below 146.500 could trigger further downside
- JPY Strength Factors:
- Modest improvement in Japan’s M2 Money Stock
- Lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data weakening USD
- Risk-off sentiment favoring safe-haven JPY
📊 Trade Rationale
| Pair | Bearish Catalyst | Technical Setup | Target Zone |
| USDJPY | Weak U.S. inflation + strong JPY deflator | Testing support at 146.386 | 146.00 or lower |
| CADJPY | CAD vulnerable to oil price volatility + JPY strength | Likely to follow USDJPY breakdown | 106.50–107.00 |
- JPY Strength Thesis: Despite flat GDP growth, the strong deflator suggests inflationary pressure, which may prompt the BoJ to maintain or tighten policy. This supports JPY appreciation.
- USD Weakness: Lower inflation expectations in the U.S. reduce the likelihood of further Fed hikes, weakening USD.
- CAD Vulnerability: CADJPY often correlates with risk sentiment and oil prices. With JPY gaining and global risk tone cautious, CADJPY is exposed.
📌 Execution Plan
- USDJPY:
- Entry: Short below 146.50
- Stop: 147.10
- Target: 146.00 / 145.50
- CADJPY:
- Entry: Short below 107.50
- Stop: 108.20
- Target: 106.50 / 106.00
How to Do Structure Mapping with Multiple Time Frames Analysis
If you think that structure mapping is not efficient for profitable trading, you get it wrong .
What newbies traders always miss is that structure mapping works effectively only with multiple time frame analysis.
In this article, I will show you how you can build profitable trading plans and accurate predictions on forex market with structure mapping alone.
Learn top-down analysis secrets and how to map structure properly in Smart Money Concepts SMC ICT.
In order to effectively use structure mapping for scalping, day trading and swing trading , always start it from higher time frames.
Examine my complete structure mapping on USDJPY forex pair on a daily time frame.
You can see that first, the pair was trading in a strong bearish trend.
Then, we had a confirmed bullish reversal with Change of Character.
After that, the market started an extended consolidating movement, not being able to update the highs.
And finally, the last bullish wave managed to update a high , confirming a completion of a consolidation and a resumption of a bullish trend.
Structure mapping reveals that USDJPY is now bullish on a daily and the last bearish movement is a correction in uptrend.
We can expect a start of a new bullish wave soon.
To understand when exactly it is going to happen, you will need to dive your analysis deeper .
You should start structure mapping on lower time frames.
And you should execute a price action analysis there in relation to your structure mapping on a higher time frame.
4H time frame structure mapping will reveal a price action within the last bearish move that we spotted on a daily.
We see that the market is trading in a bearish trend and the price started a local correctional movement after a formation of the last low.
4h time frame structure mapping provided a detailed intra week perspective.
Hourly time frame analysis, we reveal hidden intraday trends that will unveil more insights.
And why are we doing all that?
Remember that big waves always start from minor reversals.
The earlier you are able to find strong confirmations, the earlier you will open a trading position and the more profits you will make.
On an hourly time frame, our structure mapping shows that the market is already bullish. A bearish trend that USDJPY followed is already violated, and the price is updating the highs.
Following our analysis, the only thing that we need to confirm a start of a bullish trend is a confirmed trend reversal and a change of character on a 4H time frame.
It will validate an intra week bullish trend.
We will need the price to break the underlined blue resistance based on the last lower high in a bearish trend.
That will provide an accurate signal for us to buy.
And we can anticipate a rise a least to a current daily higher high then.
When you do structure mapping on forex market, never forget to do that on multiple time frames. Multiple perspectives and short-term/mid-term/long-term projections will help you to build a more efficient trading plan.
Remember that you can expand your structure mapping even for minute time frames. It will provide a unique perspective for scalping forex.
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EURJPY: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY successfully violated a significant daily resistance cluster.
With a high probability, it turned into a strong support now.
We can expect a bullish continuation from that.
Next resistance - 173.5
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GBPNZD: We could see a rejection at resistance once moreGBPNZD is range bound currently, and this latest moves continues the narrative of it. Right now, it's approaching a major resistance, where each touch here has showed good rejection.
My target would be toward 2.25230, an achievable target.
Though a scenario for more upside is possible and can happen just as much. But, I would take the side for more downside in this particular case.
Let me know in the comments what you think:
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