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NDQ - Ascending Channel at FVG Decision Zone | Break 25,873? Hey TradingView! NASDAQ 100 is at a critical decision point right now. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 15-minute chart. The Setup NDQ is trading at 25,741 inside an ascending channel, currently consolidating in the FVG zone around 25,780-25,830. Price keeps pushing up, pulling back into the FVG, then bouncing - classic accumulation pattern. The key level is 25,873.01. Break above that = liftoff. Reject = back down to test lower supports. Why This Level Matters Ascending channel intact - higher highs, higher lows FVG zone acting as decision zone - price consolidating here 25,873.01 is the KEY resistance - break above = bullish continuation CPI came in cooler than expected - supports Fed rate cut narrative S&P 500 and Dow at record highs - NASDAQ lagging slightly Intel and AMD upgraded by KeyBanc - chip sector bullish The News Context Mixed but leaning bullish: Core CPI cooler than expected (0.2% vs 0.3%) - bullish for rate cuts S&P 500 hit record high Monday - broad market strength JPMorgan beat earnings but stock dropped (credit card cap fears) Intel +3.4%, AMD +1.9% on KeyBanc upgrades Alphabet briefly hit $4 trillion market cap - AI momentum Global central banks releasing coordinated support for Fed independence Small caps outperforming (Russell 2000 +6.2% YTD vs S&P +1.9%) Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 25,873.01 - KEY BREAKOUT LEVEL (must break for bulls) 25,930 - Upper channel resistance 26,000+ - Bullish target if breakout confirms Support: 25,780-25,830 - FVG zone (current consolidation) 25,642 - Day's low / immediate support 25,500 - Channel midline support 25,400 - Lower channel support My Game Plan Bullish scenario: If NDQ breaks above 25,873.01 with volume, we fly to 25,930 upper channel, then 26,000+. The ascending channel is intact, CPI was bullish, and chip stocks are getting upgraded. Break the resistance = momentum kicks in. Bearish scenario: If we reject at 25,873 and lose the FVG zone, next stop is 25,642 (day's low), then 25,500 channel midline. High impact news (Fed drama, earnings misses) could trigger the breakdown. Range scenario (MOST LIKELY short-term): Price continues to consolidate in the FVG zone, bouncing between 25,780-25,873. Wait for the breakout confirmation before committing. The Bottom Line I'm NEUTRAL with a bullish lean. The ascending channel is intact and CPI was supportive, but we need to break 25,873.01 to confirm the next leg up. Until then, we're just consolidating in the FVG zone. Watch that 25,873 level closely. Break above = bullish. Reject = more consolidation or pullback. What do you think? Breakout or rejection? Let me know in the comments! 👇
TVC:NDQ
by officialjackofalltrades
ES - Ascending Channel Near ATH | FVG Retest in Play Hey TradingView community! 👋 S&P 500 futures are consolidating just below all-time highs. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 45-minute chart. The Setup ES1! is trading at 7,001 inside an ascending channel, currently retesting the FVG zone around 6,970-6,990. Price keeps pushing up to resistance, pulling back to the FVG, then bouncing again. Classic consolidation near highs before the next move. We're literally 0.19% away from the record high. The question is: breakout or rejection? Why I'm Cautiously Bullish Ascending channel intact - higher highs, higher lows FVG zone holding as support - buyers defending this level Third highest close in HISTORY yesterday Up 19.39% over the past year - strong momentum CPI came in line with expectations - Fed cuts still on table Forward curve pricing 8,000+ by 2031 - long-term bullish The News Context Mixed signals but leaning bullish: S&P 500 hit record high 6,977.27 on Monday - just 0.19% away CPI in line with expectations - supports Fed rate cut narrative JPMorgan beat earnings but stock dropped 4% (credit card cap fears) Trump vs Powell drama continues - "that jerk will be gone soon" Financials dragging (Visa, Mastercard down 4%+) Gold hitting record highs - safe-haven demand elevated Up 22.80% since tariffs announced in April 2025 Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 7,036 - Day's high / immediate resistance 7,040 - Major resistance zone 7,050+ - BREAKOUT TERRITORY (new ATH) Support: 6,970-6,990 - FVG zone (current retest) 6,955 - Horizontal support 6,900 - Lower channel support 6,858 - 2026 low (major support) My Game Plan Bullish scenario (PRIMARY): If ES holds the FVG zone (6,970-6,990) and bounces, we push back to 7,036-7,040 resistance. A break above 7,040 with volume = new all-time highs. Target 7,050+, then 7,100. The ascending channel is intact and we're consolidating near highs - this is typically bullish. Bearish scenario: If we lose the FVG zone and break below 6,955, next stop is 6,900 lower channel support. Financial sector weakness (JPM, V, MA) could drag the index lower. Watch for Fed drama escalation. Range scenario: Price continues to oscillate between FVG support (6,970) and resistance (7,040). Trade the range until breakout. The Bottom Line I'm CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. The ascending channel is intact, we're consolidating just below all-time highs, and the FVG zone is holding as support. This is textbook bullish structure - consolidate near highs, then break out. The risk is the financial sector weakness and Fed drama. But as long as we hold the FVG zone, the path of least resistance is higher. Watch for the breakout above 7,040. That's the trigger for new ATH. What do you think? New highs incoming? Let me know in the comments! 👇
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by officialjackofalltrades
MNQ - Ascending Channel Range Play | FVG Zones Holding Hey TradingView community! 👋 NASDAQ futures are in classic range mode right now. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 45-minute chart. The Setup MNQ1! is trading at 25,941 inside an ascending channel, currently sitting right in the upper FVG zone around 25,880-25,920. Price has been respecting this channel beautifully - bouncing between the upper and lower boundaries like clockwork. This is a range-bound market. Until we get a decisive breakout, expect more of the same: test resistance, pull back to FVG, bounce, repeat. Why I'm Neutral Here Ascending channel intact - but price is RANGING, not trending Two FVG zones acting as magnets - price keeps retesting them S&P 500 at record highs but NASDAQ lagging slightly Fed pressure headlines creating uncertainty (Powell vs Trump drama) CPI data Tuesday could be the catalyst for breakout Bank earnings starting this week (JPM Tuesday) The News Context Mixed signals keeping the market choppy: S&P 500 hit record high Friday - but NASDAQ underperforming Trump vs Powell drama - DOJ threatening Fed Chair over "renovation" testimony Credit card rate cap proposal hitting bank stocks hard Soft jobs data (50K vs 60K expected) - but unemployment dropped to 4.4% Banks pushing back rate cut expectations after jobs report Walmart joining Nasdaq-100 on Jan 20 - could bring passive fund flows CPI report Tuesday - this is the big catalyst to watch Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: 26,000 - Psychological level / upper channel 26,280 - Major resistance (near 52-week high) 26,399 - 52-WEEK HIGH Support: 25,880-25,920 - Upper FVG zone (current) 25,800-25,860 - Lower FVG zone 25,600 - Channel midline support 25,320 - Lower channel support My Game Plan Range scenario (MOST LIKELY): Price continues to oscillate within the ascending channel. Expect retests of the FVG zones. Trade the range - buy at lower FVG, sell at upper channel resistance. This is a scalper's market until we get a breakout. Bullish scenario: If CPI comes in soft and we break above 26,000 with volume, next target is 26,280, then 26,399 (52-week high). Walmart joining Nasdaq-100 on Jan 20 could bring passive buying. Bearish scenario: If CPI comes in hot or Fed drama escalates, we could break below 25,600 and test 25,320 lower channel support. Watch bank earnings for sentiment. The Bottom Line I'm NEUTRAL here. The channel is intact but we're just ranging. No clear trend until we break out. The FVG zones are acting as support/resistance - trade the range or wait for the breakout. CPI Tuesday is the key. That's likely the catalyst that decides direction. What do you think? Breakout or more chop? Let me know in the comments! 👇
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by officialjackofalltrades
XRP - Descending Channel | Breakout or Breakdown? | Massive News Hey TradingView community! 👋 XRP is at a make-or-break level right now. Let me break down what I'm seeing on the 45-minute chart. The Setup XRPUSD is trading at $2.09 inside a clear descending channel that's been in play since early January. Price has been making lower highs and lower lows, but we're now sitting right at a critical support zone around $2.10-2.18. This is the moment of truth - either buyers step in here and we get a breakout, or we lose this level and continue lower. Why This Level Matters Descending channel support being tested RIGHT NOW $2.10-2.18 zone has acted as support multiple times Whale activity spiking to 3-month highs - smart money accumulating? CNBC just called XRP the "new crypto darling" Massive institutional news dropping (Ripple + BNY, FCA approval, Evernorth partnership) The News is HUGE Ripple just had a monster week: BNY (Bank of New York) tapped Ripple Prime for tokenized deposits - this is massive institutional adoption Ripple secured FCA authorization in the UK - clearing path for expansion Evernorth + Doppler Finance partnership to boost XRP as yield-generating asset for institutions South Korea announcing spot Bitcoin ETFs - XRP ETF momentum building Analysts saying XRP could outperform Bitcoin on percentage gains Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: $2.18 - Upper channel resistance / breakout level $2.32 - Major horizontal resistance $2.50+ - Bullish target if breakout confirms Support: $2.10 - Current support zone (CRITICAL) $1.90 - Lower channel support $1.61 - 52-week low area My Game Plan This is a two-scenario setup: Bullish scenario: If XRP holds above $2.10 and breaks out of the descending channel with volume, we could see a sharp move toward $2.32 and potentially $2.50+. The institutional news flow is extremely bullish - BNY partnership, FCA approval, whale accumulation. If Bitcoin pumps, XRP could explode. Bearish scenario: If we lose $2.10 support and break below the channel, next stop is $1.90. The descending channel trend would continue until we see a clear reversal signal. The Bottom Line I'm cautiously bullish here. The news catalysts are incredible - Ripple is getting institutional adoption at a rapid pace. Whale activity at 3-month highs suggests smart money is accumulating. BUT the chart structure is still bearish until we break out of this descending channel. Watch the $2.10 level closely. Hold = bullish. Break = more downside. What's your take? Breakout or breakdown? Let me know in the comments! 👇
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
Position Sizing: The Decision That Matters More Than Your Entry Your Entry Doesn't Matter If Your Size Is Wrong Here's a truth that will save your trading career: A mediocre strategy with excellent position sizing will outperform an excellent strategy with poor position sizing. Every. Single. Time. Position sizing is the most important decision you make — and most traders barely think about it. What Is Position Sizing? Definition: Position sizing determines how much capital you allocate to each trade. What It's NOT: "I'll buy 100 shares" "I'll use 10% of my account" "I'll risk what feels right" What It IS: A calculated decision based on: Your account size Your risk tolerance The specific trade's risk Your overall portfolio exposure Why Position Sizing Matters Most The Math of Ruin: If you lose 50% of your account, you need 100% gain to break even. If you lose 90%, you need 900% to recover. 10% loss → Need 11% to recover 20% loss → Need 25% to recover 30% loss → Need 43% to recover 50% loss → Need 100% to recover 70% loss → Need 233% to recover 90% loss → Need 900% to recover The Implication: Avoiding large losses is more important than capturing large gains. Position sizing is your primary defense. Position Sizing Methods Method 1: Fixed Dollar Amount Risk the same dollar amount on every trade. Example: Account: $100,000 Risk per trade: $1,000 Every trade risks exactly $1,000 Pros: Simple, consistent Cons: Doesn't scale with account growth/decline Method 2: Fixed Percentage Risk the same percentage of account on every trade. Example: Account: $100,000 Risk per trade: 1% Risk = $1,000 If account grows to $120,000: Risk = $1,200 Pros: Scales with account, anti-martingale effect Cons: Requires recalculation as account changes Method 3: Volatility-Adjusted Adjust position size based on the asset's volatility. Formula: Position Size = (Account × Risk%) / (ATR × Multiplier) Example: Account: $100,000 Risk: 1% = $1,000 Stock ATR: $2 Multiplier: 2 (stop at 2 ATR) Position Size = $1,000 / ($2 × 2) = 250 shares Pros: Equalizes risk across different volatility assets Cons: More complex calculation Method 4: Kelly Criterion Mathematically optimal sizing based on edge. Formula: Kelly % = W - Where: W = Win probability R = Win/Loss ratio Example: Win rate: 55% Average win: $150 Average loss: $100 R = 1.5 Kelly = 0.55 - (0.45/1.5) = 0.25 = 25% Reality Check: Full Kelly is too aggressive. Use fractional Kelly (25-50% of calculated). Pros: Mathematically optimal for growth Cons: Requires accurate edge estimation, high variance The Position Sizing Formula Universal Formula: Position Size = Risk Amount / Risk Per Share Where: Risk Amount = Account Size × Risk Percentage Risk Per Share = Entry Price - Stop Loss Price Step-by-Step Example: Account Size: $50,000 Risk Percentage: 2% Risk Amount: $50,000 × 0.02 = $1,000 Entry Price: $100 Stop Loss: $95 Risk Per Share: $100 - $95 = $5 Position Size: $1,000 / $5 = 200 shares Position Value: 200 × $100 = $20,000 Verification: If stopped out: 200 shares × $5 loss = $1,000 = 2% of account ✓ Position Sizing Mistakes Sizing Based on Conviction — "I'm really confident, so I'll size up." Confidence doesn't equal accuracy. Your "best" ideas often fail. Same risk percentage regardless of conviction. Ignoring Correlation — Taking 5 "different" positions that all move together. You think you're diversified but you're concentrated. Consider correlation when calculating total portfolio risk. Averaging Down Without Plan — Adding to losers to "lower average cost." Increasing exposure to losing positions. If averaging down, include it in original position sizing plan. Not Accounting for Gaps — Assuming stop loss will execute at your price. Gaps can blow through stops. Size for worst-case gap, especially around events. Sizing for Profit, Not Risk — "I want to make $5,000 on this trade." Focuses on reward, ignores risk. Always size based on what you can lose, not what you want to make. AI-Enhanced Position Sizing 1. Dynamic Risk Adjustment AI adjusts risk percentage based on: Recent performance (reduce after losses) Market volatility (reduce in high vol) Strategy performance (reduce when underperforming) 2. Correlation-Aware Sizing AI calculates: Portfolio correlation matrix True portfolio risk Optimal position sizes to maintain target risk 3. Kelly Criterion Optimization AI continuously updates: Win rate estimates Win/loss ratio Optimal Kelly fraction 4. Scenario Analysis AI simulates: Worst-case scenarios Gap risk Correlation spikes during stress Position Sizing Rules Rule 1: Never Risk More Than 2% Per Trade For most traders, 1-2% is appropriate. Aggressive: 2% Conservative: 0.5-1% Rule 2: Limit Total Portfolio Risk Maximum open risk at any time: 6-10% If you have 5 positions at 2% each = 10% total risk Rule 3: Reduce Size After Losses After significant drawdown, reduce position sizes. This is anti-martingale: bet less when losing. Rule 4: Account for Correlation Correlated positions = concentrated risk. Treat correlated positions as one larger position. Rule 5: Size for the Stop, Not the Target Your position size is determined by where you're wrong, not where you want to be right. Position Sizing Checklist Before every trade: What is my account size today? What percentage am I risking? (1-2%) What is my dollar risk amount? Where is my stop loss? What is my risk per share? What is my calculated position size? What is my total portfolio risk with this trade? Is this position correlated with existing positions? Quick Reference Table $10,000 account → 1% = $100, 2% = $200 $25,000 account → 1% = $250, 2% = $500 $50,000 account → 1% = $500, 2% = $1,000 $100,000 account → 1% = $1,000, 2% = $2,000 $250,000 account → 1% = $2,500, 2% = $5,000 Key Takeaways Position sizing matters more than entry timing or stock selection Risk a fixed percentage (1-2%) of your account per trade Calculate position size based on stop loss distance Account for correlation — correlated positions multiply risk Reduce size after losses, not increase (anti-martingale) Your Turn How do you currently determine position size? Have you ever been hurt by sizing too large? Share your position sizing rules below 👇
TVC:DJIEducation
by officialjackofalltrades
DJI - Ascending Channel Rejection at 49,000 | Trump Policy Executive Summary Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) trading at 48,996.08 after a sharp 466-point drop (-0.94%) on January 7, 2026. Price rejected from the upper ascending channel resistance near 49,600 and is now consolidating within a key support zone between 48,500-49,000. Despite the pullback, the Dow just triggered a rare Dow Theory buy signal on January 6 when both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hit record highs simultaneously - the first such signal in over a year. Trump policy headlines creating volatility, but the secular bull market remains intact. BIAS: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH - Support Zone Test The trend remains bullish on higher timeframes. Current pullback is a healthy consolidation within the ascending channel. Watch the 48,500-49,000 support zone for bounce or breakdown. Current Market Data - January 8, 2026 Current Price: 48,996.08 (-466.00 / -0.94%) Day's Range: 48,951.99 - 49,621.43 52-Week Range: 36,611.78 - 49,621.43 Market Status: Closed (Last update Jan 7, 17:00 GMT-5) Index Type: CFD Performance Metrics: 1 Week: +1.29% 1 Month: +2.14% 3 Months: +5.09% 6 Months: +10.15% YTD: +1.85% 1 Year: +14.45% All timeframes positive. Best 4-day start to a year since 2018 (+1.9% through first 4 trading days). THE BIG STORY - Dow Theory Buy Signal + Trump Policy Chaos Historic Dow Theory Signal On January 6, 2026, the Dow Theory flashed a bullish signal for the first time in more than a year. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average tallied record closing highs on the same day - a classic confirmation that the secular bull market remains alive and well. Key points: Dow Industrials hit record high of 49,462.08 on Jan 6 Dow Transports hit first record since Nov 25, 2024 100-year-old indicator confirms bull market intact Rotation trade benefiting cyclicals and value stocks Transportation stocks big beneficiaries of rotation Trump Policy Headlines Creating Volatility We're only one week into 2026 and the market is already dealing with a flood of geopolitical headlines: Trump called for 50%+ increase in U.S. defense budget to $1.5 trillion by 2027 Executive order blocking defense contractors from dividends/buybacks until they speed up production Plans to ban Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes U.S. intervention in Venezuela - deal to import $2B of Venezuelan crude "Donroe Doctrine" drama targeting Greenland, Colombia, Cuba European defense stocks hitting record highs on spending expectations MACRO DRIVERS - What's Moving the Dow 1. Defense Sector Turmoil Trump's executive order sent defense stocks tumbling: Lockheed Martin (LMT): -4.8% Northrop Grumman: -5.5% General Dynamics: -3.6% RTX (Raytheon): -2.5% European defense stocks at record highs (BAE +5.8%, Leonardo +4.4%) Stocks bounced in afterhours trading 2. Financial Sector Weakness JPMorgan Chase (JPM): -2.3% after Wolfe Research downgrade Blackstone: -5.6% on housing ban news Invitation Homes: -6% on single-family home ban Banks expected to report higher Q4 profits next week Investment banking revenue accelerating 3. Labor Market Data Mixed JOLTS: Job openings fell to 14-month low in November ADP: Private payrolls +41,000 in December (weak) Initial jobless claims: 214,000 (better than expected) Friday's NFP report is the key data point Unemployment expected to drop to 4.5% from 4.6% 4. Fed Policy Outlook 83% odds Fed pauses at Jan 27-28 meeting Hot economy could mean fewer rate cuts Need unemployment near 5% for significant easing Few economists expect that in near term Rate cut expectations fading 5. Venezuela Oil Deal Trump deal to import up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude U.S. "selectively rolling back sanctions" on Venezuelan oil Revenue to stabilize Venezuela economy Repay Exxon and ConocoPhillips for nationalized assets Oil prices fell sharply on supply expectations Brent: $59.96 | WTI: $55.99 Technical Structure Analysis - 45 Minute Timeframe Ascending Channel Pattern The chart shows a well-defined ascending channel (blue shaded area): Lower trendline support connecting higher lows Upper trendline resistance connecting higher highs Channel intact since mid-December Price rejected from upper channel resistance near 49,600 Currently testing mid-channel support zone Dashed midline providing dynamic support/resistance Key Price Action Jan 6: Hit record high 49,462.08 (Dow Theory confirmation) Jan 7: Rejected from 49,621.43 intraday high Sharp 466-point drop (-0.94%) Now consolidating at 48,996.08 Testing critical support zone Key Levels Resistance: 49,621.43 - 52-WEEK HIGH / Day's high (red line) 49,462.08 - Jan 6 record close 49,300-49,400 - Upper channel resistance zone (pink box) 50,000 - Psychological round number Support: 48,951.99 - Day's low / immediate support 48,500-49,000 - Current support zone (pink box on chart) 48,300 - Channel midline support (dashed line) 47,600 - Lower channel support (red line) 47,300 - Major support level SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Bounce from Support Zone Trigger Conditions: Price holds 48,500-49,000 support zone Bullish rejection candle on 45min/1H Volume confirmation on bounce Defense stocks stabilize Friday NFP comes in strong Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: 49,300-49,400 (upper channel) Target 2: 49,621 (52-week high retest) Target 3: 50,000 (psychological) Extended: 50,500+ (new ATH territory) BEARISH SCENARIO - Channel Breakdown Trigger Conditions: Price breaks below 48,500 support Volume confirmation on breakdown Defense sector continues selling Weak NFP data Friday Fed hawkish signals Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: 48,300 (channel midline) Target 2: 47,600 (lower channel support) Target 3: 47,300 (major support) Extended: 46,500 (deeper correction) NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Range Consolidation Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between 48,500-49,300 Wait for Friday NFP for direction Digest Trump policy headlines Healthy consolidation before next leg Dow Theory signal provides floor MY ASSESSMENT - CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Bullish Factors (Dominant): Dow Theory buy signal (first in over a year) Best 4-day start since 2018 All performance metrics positive Secular bull market intact since Oct 2022 Ascending channel structure holding Rotation into cyclicals/value continuing Strong Q3 GDP (4.3%) Banks expected to report strong Q4 M&A activity surging Bearish Factors (Caution): Sharp rejection from 52-week high Defense sector turmoil (Dow components) Trump policy uncertainty Fed rate cut expectations fading Friday NFP risk event Elevated valuations (98th percentile) My Stance: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH - Buy Support Zone The Dow Theory signal is significant - this 100-year-old indicator just confirmed the bull market is alive. The pullback from 49,621 to 48,996 is a healthy 1.3% correction within the ascending channel. The 48,500-49,000 support zone is the key level to watch. Strategy: Watch for bounce at 48,500-49,000 support zone Long on bullish rejection candle with volume Target 49,300-49,400 (upper channel) Extended target 49,621 (52-week high) Stop below 48,300 (channel midline) Wait for Friday NFP before large positions Trade Framework Scenario 1: Support Zone Bounce Entry Conditions: Price tests 48,500-48,800 zone Bullish rejection candle (hammer, engulfing) Volume spike on bounce RSI oversold on lower timeframes Trade Parameters: Entry: 48,500-48,800 at support Stop Loss: 48,200 below support zone Target 1: 49,300 (upper channel) Target 2: 49,621 (52-week high) Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 Scenario 2: Breakout Above 52-Week High Entry Conditions: Price breaks above 49,621 with volume Momentum indicators confirming Strong NFP data Friday Trade Parameters: Entry: 49,650-49,700 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 49,200 below recent support Target 1: 50,000 (psychological) Target 2: 50,500 (new ATH territory) Risk-Reward: ~1:2 Scenario 3: Channel Breakdown Entry Conditions: Price breaks below 48,300 channel midline Volume confirmation Defense stocks continue selling Trade Parameters: Entry: 48,200-48,300 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 48,700 above breakdown level Target 1: 47,600 (lower channel) Target 2: 47,300 (major support) Risk-Reward: ~1:1.5 Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Friday NFP is major risk event - reduce size before Trump headlines can move markets suddenly Defense stocks are Dow components - watch sector Scale out at targets Don't fight the trend - it's still bullish Key Events to Watch Thursday Jan 8: Initial jobless claims, trade deficit, Q3 productivity Friday Jan 9: December Non-Farm Payrolls (KEY EVENT) Next Week: Bank earnings begin (JPM, BAC, WFC, C) Jan 27-28: FOMC Meeting (83% odds of pause) Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 47,600 (lower channel) Dow Transports break down significantly VIX spikes above 20 Major geopolitical escalation Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 49,621 (new ATH) Strong NFP data Friday Defense stocks recover Fed signals more rate cuts Conclusion The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at a critical juncture after rejecting from the 52-week high. The Dow Theory buy signal confirms the secular bull market is intact, but Trump policy headlines are creating short-term volatility. The Numbers: Current Price: 48,996.08 52-Week High: 49,621.43 YTD Performance: +1.85% 1-Year Performance: +14.45% Best 4-day start since 2018 Key Levels: 49,621 - 52-WEEK HIGH (bullish target) 49,300-49,400 - Upper channel resistance 48,996 - Current price 48,500-49,000 - Support zone (WATCH THIS) 47,600 - Lower channel support The Setup: Dow Theory just flashed a buy signal for the first time in over a year. The ascending channel is intact. The pullback is healthy. Watch the 48,500-49,000 support zone for the next move. Strategy: Buy support zone (48,500-49,000) Target 49,300-49,400 (upper channel) Extended target 49,621 (52-week high) Stop below 48,300 Wait for Friday NFP for confirmation The Dow Theory signal says the bull market is alive. Trade accordingly. List your thoughts below!
TVC:DJILong
by officialjackofalltrades
AMD - Descending Wedge at $221 | OpenAI Partnership + MI400 Chip Executive Summary AMD trading at $221.08 within a descending wedge on the 4H timeframe. Major catalyst: CES 2026 unveiled MI455, MI440X AI chips with OpenAI partnership expected to generate billions in revenue. MI500 previewed (1,000x faster than MI300, shipping 2027). Descending wedge typically bullish reversal pattern. Earnings in 28 days. BIAS: BULLISH - Descending Wedge + AI Catalyst Current Market Data Current: $221.08 (-1.07%) Pre-market: $222.77 (+0.76%) Day's Range: $220.48 - $234.02 52-Week: $76.48 - $267.08 Market Cap: $359.93B Next Earnings: 28 days CES 2026 Catalysts MI455 processors powering OpenAI data centers MI440X for enterprise on-premise AI deployments MI500 preview - 1,000x faster than MI300 (shipping 2027) OpenAI deploying 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs Ryzen AI 400 Series for Copilot+ PCs Ryzen 7 9850X3D - fastest gaming processor Greg Brockman (OpenAI) on stage with Lisa Su Technical Structure - 4H Descending Wedge Pattern: Falling resistance and support trendlines (yellow dashed) Wedge narrowing toward apex Typically bullish reversal (70% break up) Price broke out of $200-$210 consolidation zone Key Levels: Resistance: $234 - Day's high / immediate resistance $240 - Secondary resistance $263 - Upper resistance (red line) / breakout target $267.08 - 52-WEEK HIGH Support: $220 - Immediate support $200 - $210 - Consolidation zone (red box) $196 - Major support (red line) SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH: Wedge Breakout Trigger: Break above descending wedge resistance (~$235-$240) Targets: $250 → $263 → $267 (52-week high) Catalyst: OpenAI partnership, MI400 deployment, earnings beat BEARISH: Wedge Breakdown Trigger: Break below $200 support Targets: $196 → $180 Invalidates bullish thesis My Assessment Descending wedge with major AI catalyst. OpenAI partnership deploying 6GW of AMD GPUs = billions in revenue. CES 2026 unveiled MI455, MI440X, previewed MI500 (1,000x faster). Lisa Su: "AI is the most important technology of the last 50 years." Earnings in 28 days - consistent beats. Bullish structure for breakout. Strategy: Long on wedge breakout above $235-$240 Target $250, $263, $267 (52-week high) Stop below $196 major support Watch earnings in 28 days List your thoughts below on the next move!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
Zooming Out and In: AI-Powered Multi-Timeframe Mastery You're Bullish on the 5-Minute Chart. You're Bearish on the Daily. Who's Right? This conflict destroys more traders than bad entries ever will. Multi-timeframe analysis isn't optional - it's the difference between trading with the current and swimming against it. AI doesn't have the human limitation of only seeing one chart at a time. Here's how to think like the machine. The Timeframe Hierarchy The Principle: Higher timeframes carry more weight than lower timeframes. Why: More data points = more statistical significance Larger players operate on higher timeframes Trends on higher timeframes persist longer Lower timeframe noise gets filtered out The Hierarchy: Monthly → Macro Trend Weekly → Swing Trend Daily → Position Trend 4H → Swing Trade 1H → Day Trade 15M → Scalp 5M/1M → Noise The Three-Timeframe Framework Timeframe 1: Trend (Higher) Purpose: Determine overall direction What is the dominant trend? Where are major support/resistance levels? What's the big picture context? Timeframe 2: Signal (Trading) Purpose: Find entry opportunities Where are setups forming? What patterns are developing? Where should entries be placed? Timeframe 3: Execution (Lower) Purpose: Optimize entry timing Where is the precise entry? What's the immediate momentum? Where should the stop go? Example Combinations: Position Trading: Monthly → Weekly → Daily Swing Trading: Weekly → Daily → 4H Day Trading: Daily → 1H → 15M Scalping: 4H → 15M → 5M How AI Processes Multiple Timeframes Human Limitation: You can only look at one chart at a time. Switching between timeframes takes time and mental energy. AI Advantage: Processes all timeframes simultaneously, identifying: Alignment (all timeframes agree) Conflict (timeframes disagree) Confluence (multiple signals at same price) AI Multi-Timeframe Logic: Calculate trend on TF1 (higher) Calculate trend on TF2 (trading) Calculate trend on TF3 (lower) If all aligned: Signal strength = HIGH If 2 of 3 aligned: Signal strength = MEDIUM If conflicting: Signal strength = LOW or NO TRADE Timeframe Alignment Signals Full Alignment (Strongest) Higher TF: Uptrend Trading TF: Uptrend Lower TF: Uptrend Action: High-confidence long entries Partial Alignment (Moderate) Higher TF: Uptrend Trading TF: Pullback in uptrend Lower TF: Downtrend (temporary) Action: Wait for lower TF to turn, then enter Conflict (Weakest/No Trade) Higher TF: Uptrend Trading TF: Downtrend Lower TF: Uptrend Action: Wait for clarity or reduce size Practical Multi-Timeframe Workflow Step 1: Start High Open your highest timeframe first. What's the trend? Where are key levels? What's the context? Step 2: Move to Trading Timeframe Look for setups that align with higher TF. Is there a pattern forming? Does it align with higher TF direction? Where would entry make sense? Step 3: Drop to Execution Timeframe Fine-tune your entry. What's the immediate momentum? Where's the optimal entry point? Where should the stop go? Step 4: Execute and Manage Enter on lower TF, manage on trading TF. Don't let lower TF noise shake you out Use trading TF for trade management Reference higher TF for overall thesis Common Multi-Timeframe Mistakes Fighting the Higher Timeframe — Taking shorts in a strong weekly uptrend because the 15M looks bearish. Higher timeframe wins. Trade with it, not against it. Analysis Paralysis — Looking at so many timeframes that you never take a trade. Stick to three timeframes maximum. Timeframe Hopping — Switching timeframes to justify a trade you want to take. Define your timeframes BEFORE looking at charts. Managing on Wrong Timeframe — Entering on 1H, then panicking at every 5M candle. Manage trades on the timeframe you entered on. Ignoring Timeframe Transitions — Not recognizing when higher TF trend is changing. Regularly check higher TF for trend health. AI-Enhanced Multi-Timeframe Indicators Concept 1: Trend Alignment Score Single number showing alignment across timeframes. Score = (TF1_trend × 3) + (TF2_trend × 2) + (TF3_trend × 1) Where trend = +1 (up), 0 (neutral), -1 (down) Max bullish = +6 Max bearish = -6 Concept 2: Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Shows MA from higher timeframe on lower timeframe chart. Application: Daily 200 MA plotted on 1H chart Provides context without switching charts Concept 3: Timeframe Confluence Zones Identifies price levels significant on multiple timeframes. Application: Support on daily AND weekly = stronger level Resistance on 4H AND daily = more significant Building Your Multi-Timeframe System Define Your Timeframes: Based on your trading style, select: Trend timeframe (context) Signal timeframe (setups) Execution timeframe (entries) Create Alignment Rules: What constitutes "aligned"? What do you do when conflicted? How do you handle transitions? Build Checklists: Before Any Trade: What's the higher TF trend? Does trading TF setup align? Is lower TF confirming entry? During Trade: Is higher TF thesis still valid? Is trading TF structure intact? Am I managing on correct TF? Timeframe-Specific Characteristics Monthly/Weekly: Institutional positioning Macro trends Major support/resistance Slow to change Daily: Swing trade setups Clear trend structure Key for most traders Balances noise and signal 4H/1H: Day trade setups Intraday trends More noise than daily Faster signals 15M/5M: Scalp entries Execution timing High noise Requires quick decisions 1M: Mostly noise Only for precise execution Not for analysis Easy to overtrade Key Takeaways Higher timeframes carry more weight than lower timeframes Use three timeframes: Trend (context), Signal (setups), Execution (entries) Full alignment = strongest signals; conflict = wait or skip AI can process all timeframes simultaneously — humans must be systematic Manage trades on the timeframe you entered, not lower Your Turn What timeframes do you currently use in your trading? Have you experienced the conflict of different timeframes showing opposite signals? Share your multi-timeframe strategy below 👇
TVC:GOLDEducation
by officialjackofalltrades
2
ATOM - +21% Weekly Rally at $1.16B | Tokenomics Redesign Executive Summary Cosmos (ATOM) market cap trading at $1.16B after a massive +21.17% weekly rally on the 4H timeframe. Price surged from $880M support to test $1.18B resistance. Major catalysts ahead: tokenomics redesign (Q1 2026), Solana/Ethereum L2 IBC integrations, and THORChain cross-chain swaps live. Strong momentum but approaching resistance. BIAS: BULLISH - Strong Momentum, Watch Resistance Current Market Data Current: $1.16B (+0.33%) Day's Range: $1.14B - $1.16B 52-Week: $803.29M - $2.8B Volume: 63.52M (above 30D avg of 53.47M) Performance: 1W: +21.17% | 1M: +7.14% | 3M: -39.69% 6M: -31.52% | YTD: +23.37% | 1Y: -59.76% Key Catalysts Tokenomics Redesign (Q1 2026) - Lower inflation, fee capture from appchains IBC Integrations - Solana and Ethereum L2s connectivity coming THORChain Cross-Chain Swaps - Native ATOM swaps live (no bridges) CometBFT Upgrades - Targeting 10k+ TPS for enterprise Enterprise Blockchain Fleet Manager - SWIFT, SMBC adoption potential Stablecoin Surge - Cosmos Labs predicts new issuers in 2026 Technical Structure - 4H Strong Uptrend: Clean rally from $880M to $1.16B Higher highs and higher lows Now testing upper resistance at $1.18B Volume above average - confirms momentum Key Levels (Market Cap): Resistance: $1.16B - $1.18B - Current resistance zone $1.20B - Psychological resistance $1.40B+ - Extended bullish target Support: $1.10B - Immediate support $1.00B - Psychological support $880M - Major support (red line at bottom) SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH: Breakout Above $1.18B Trigger: Close above $1.18B with volume Targets: $1.20B → $1.40B → $1.60B Catalyst: Tokenomics redesign approval, IBC integrations BEARISH: Rejection at Resistance Rejection at $1.18B resistance Pullback to $1.00B-$1.10B support Healthy consolidation before next leg My Assessment Strong +21% weekly rally with volume confirmation. Approaching resistance at $1.18B. Major catalysts ahead: tokenomics redesign to lower inflation and capture fees, IBC integrations with Solana/ETH L2s, and enterprise adoption push. Bullish structure intact - watch for breakout or pullback to support. Strategy: Long on breakout above $1.18B → Target $1.20B, $1.40B Or buy pullback to $1.00B-$1.10B support Stop below $880M major support Tell me your thoughts below!
CRYPTOCAP:ATOMLong
by officialjackofalltrades
AVAX - Rising Wedge at $14.12 | ETF Filings Spark +11% Rally Executive Summary Avalanche (AVAX) trading at $14.12 within a rising wedge on the 2H timeframe. Price surged +11% this week as institutional ETF filings sparked a rally. Now testing upper resistance with two scenarios: bullish breakout above $14.75 or pullback to $12.00-$12.75 support zone before continuation. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Watching for Breakout or Pullback Current Market Data Current: $14.123 (-0.82%) Day's Range: $14.033 - $14.516 52-Week: $9.013 - $44.575 Market Cap: $6.08B 24h Volume: $384.76M Technical Rating: Neutral Performance: 1W: +11.80% | 1M: +6.89% | 3M: -53.89% 6M: -23.09% | YTD: +14.80% | 1Y: -66.85% Key Catalyst Institutional ETF filings sparked +11% rally AVAX among altcoins with ETF filing momentum Fortune 100 companies expected to launch blockchains on Avalanche Strong ecosystem for enterprise adoption Technical Structure - 2H Rising Wedge Pattern: Rising support and resistance trendlines (yellow dashed) Wedge narrowing toward apex Can break either direction Currently testing upper resistance Key Levels: Resistance: $14.50 - $14.75 - Upper resistance / breakout level $15.00 - Psychological resistance $16.00+ - Extended bullish target Support: $14.00 - Immediate support $12.75 - Upper support zone $12.00 - $12.75 - Major support zone (purple) $11.75 - Deep support (red line) SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH: Breakout Above $14.75 Trigger: 2H close above $14.75 with volume Targets: $15.00 → $16.00 → $18.00 Catalyst: ETF momentum continues BEARISH: Pullback to Support Zone Rejection at upper wedge resistance Pullback to $12.00-$12.75 support zone Healthy retest before continuation Buy opportunity at support My Assessment Rising wedge at resistance after +11% ETF-driven rally. Two scenarios: breakout above $14.75 or pullback to $12.00-$12.75 support zone. ETF filings provide fundamental catalyst. Watch for confirmation before entry. Strategy: Long above $14.75 breakout → Target $15, $16, $18 Or wait for pullback to $12.00-$12.75 support Long at support with stop below $11.75 Target $14.50+ on bounce List your thoughts below!
CRYPTO:AVAXUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
MNQ - Range-Bound at 25,385 | Support Below, Resistance AboveExecutive Summary Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ1!) trading at 25,385 in a range-bound consolidation on the 4H timeframe. Price rejected from the 25,900-26,000 resistance zone and is now testing lower levels. Multiple support zones below at 25,100-25,200 and 24,850-24,950. Watch for breakout direction from this consolidation range. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Range-Bound Consolidation Current Market Data Current: 25,385.25 (-0.28%) Day's Range: 25,265.25 - 25,803.50 52-Week: 16,452.50 - 26,399.50 Open Interest: 94.90K Front Month: MNQH2026 Performance: 1W: -1.87% | 1M: -1.03% | 3M: +1.12% 6M: +10.52% | YTD: -0.29% | 1Y: +10.79% Key Market Context Mag 7 outperformed S&P 500 for 3rd straight year MAG/SPX ratio showing smallest yearly rise in 3 years Equal-weighted S&P 500 starting to outperform January Barometer: As January goes, so goes the year (84% hit rate) Santa Rally sputtering - weak footing into 2026 VIX subdued but could spike in Jan-Feb Fed expected to pause at Jan 27-28 meeting (83% odds) Technical Structure - 4H Range-Bound Consolidation: Price consolidating between support and resistance Rejected from 25,900-26,000 resistance zone Testing lower support zones Watch for breakout direction Key Levels: Resistance: 25,800 - Day's high / immediate resistance 25,900 - 26,000 - Resistance zone (pink box) 26,260 - Upper resistance (red line) 26,399.50 - 52-WEEK HIGH Support Zones (Purple): 25,100 - 25,200 - Upper support zone 24,850 - 24,950 - Lower support zone 24,850 - Major support (red line at bottom) SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH: Break Above Resistance Trigger: Break above 26,000 with volume Targets: 26,260 → 26,399 (52-week high) → 26,500+ BEARISH: Test Support Zones Price tests 25,100-25,200 first support If fails, drops to 24,850-24,950 Break below 24,850 = bearish continuation NEUTRAL: Range Continuation Price oscillates between 24,850 - 26,000 Wait for breakout confirmation Trade the range until breakout My Assessment Range-bound consolidation with clear support and resistance zones. Mag 7 momentum slowing, equal-weighted index gaining ground. Santa Rally weak - cautious into January. Watch support zones for bounce or breakdown. Strategy: Watch for bounce at 25,100-25,200 support Long above 26,000 breakout → Target 26,260, 26,400 Short below 24,850 breakdown → Target 24,500, 24,000 Trade the range until breakout confirms Comment your thoughts below!
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by officialjackofalltrades
USDT.D - Rising Wedge at 6.36% +47.73% YTD | Critical Crypto Executive Summary USDT Dominance is trading at 6.362% within a rising wedge pattern on the 4H timeframe. Up +47.73% YTD as investors rotated into stablecoins during crypto weakness. The rising wedge suggests potential bearish reversal (bullish for crypto), but the uptrend remains intact near the 52-week high of 6.749%. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Rising Wedge at Resistance WHY USDT.D MATTERS USDT.D UP = Risk-off = BEARISH for crypto USDT.D DOWN = Risk-on = BULLISH for crypto Leading indicator for BTC, ETH, altcoins Current Market Data Current: 6.362% (+0.57%) Day's Range: 6.270% - 6.399% 52-Week: 3.745% - 6.749% Technical Rating: NEUTRAL Performance: 1W: -0.26% | 1M: +4.67% | 3M: +44.84% 6M: +34.12% | YTD: +47.73% | 1Y: +46.90% Stablecoin Market Context Total stablecoin market: ~$300B (record high) USDT: $187B (64% market share) USDC: $76B (26% market share) Dragonfly predicts USDT share drops to 55% in 2026 Stablecoin market expected to grow 60% in 2026 Technical Structure - 4H Rising Wedge Pattern: Yellow dashed trendlines forming wedge Typically bearish reversal (70% break down) Price compressing near apex Breakdown = BULLISH for crypto Key Levels: Resistance: 6.45% - 6.55% - Upper resistance zone 6.749% - 52-WEEK HIGH Support: 6.15% - 6.25% - Support zone / Breakdown level 5.80% - 5.95% - Major support zone SCENARIO ANALYSIS BEARISH USDT.D (Bullish for Crypto) Trigger: Break below 6.15% Targets: 6.00% → 5.80% → 5.50% Implication: LONG crypto - risk-on rotation BULLISH USDT.D (Bearish for Crypto) Trigger: Break above 6.55% Targets: 6.749% → 7.00% → 7.25% Implication: Reduce crypto exposure - risk-off continues My Assessment Rising wedge at resistance suggests potential breakdown (bullish for crypto). However, +47.73% YTD momentum and risk-off sentiment could push higher. Wait for confirmation. Strategy: Breakdown below 6.15% = BULLISH for crypto Breakout above 6.55% = BEARISH for crypto Use as leading indicator for crypto trades This is not financial advice.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by officialjackofalltrades
DXY - Descending Wedge at 98.13 | -9.58% YTD Executive Summary The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 98.130 on December 29, 2025, consolidating within a descending wedge pattern on the 2H timeframe. The Dollar is on track for its worst year since 2017 with -9.58% YTD losses, pressured by Fed rate cut expectations, dovish Fed Chair concerns, and Trump's tariff policies. However, a potential bullish reversal pattern is forming at the bottom of the wedge, with an ascending channel developing. FOMC minutes due Tuesday could be the catalyst for the next directional move. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Watching for Breakout Direction The Dollar is at a critical inflection point. The descending wedge suggests potential bullish reversal, but fundamental headwinds remain strong. Wait for confirmation before committing to a direction. Current Market Context - December 29, 2025 DXY is consolidating near yearly lows: Current Price: 98.130 (+0.08% on the day) Day's Range: 97.915 - 98.177 52-Week Range: 96.218 - 110.176 52-Week High: 110.176 52-Week Low: 96.218 Technical Rating: SELL Performance Metrics - MIXED: 1 Week: -0.54% 1 Month: -1.45% 3 Months: +0.22% 6 Months: +1.54% YTD: -9.58% 1 Year: -9.21% The Dollar is having its worst year since 2017, down nearly 10% YTD. Short-term metrics are mixed, but the longer-term trend is clearly bearish. THE BEAR CASE - Dollar Weakness Continues 1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations The Dollar continues to see underlying weakness as markets price in further rate cuts: FOMC expected to cut rates by ~50 bp in 2026 Markets pricing 19% chance of -25 bp cut at January 27-28 meeting Two rate cuts expected in 2026 Fed officials split on path forward - majority forecast single additional cut Lower rates = weaker Dollar 2. Dovish Fed Chair Concerns President Trump to announce new Fed Chair in early 2026 Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council Director) most likely choice Hassett seen as most dovish candidate by markets Trump wants next Fed chairman to lower rates Dovish Fed Chair = bearish for Dollar 3. Fed Liquidity Injection Fed began purchasing $40 billion/month in T-bills mid-December Announced December 10 - $40 billion/month liquidity injection Increased liquidity pressures Dollar lower Quantitative easing-like effects 4. Interest Rate Differentials FOMC expected to cut rates ~50 bp in 2026 BOJ expected to raise rates +25 bp in 2026 ECB expected to leave rates unchanged in 2026 Narrowing rate differentials = Dollar weakness Yen strengthening on BOJ rate hike expectations 5. Trump Tariff Policies Aggressive tariff policies pressuring Dollar Threats to Fed independence Trade tensions creating uncertainty Dollar down nearly 10% YTD partly due to tariff concerns 6. Technical Rating: SELL TradingView technicals gauge pointing toward "Sell" Descending wedge pattern (bearish continuation possible) Below major moving averages Momentum indicators bearish THE BULL CASE - Potential Reversal Forming 1. Descending Wedge Pattern (Bullish Reversal) Descending wedge is typically a bullish reversal pattern Price compressing at bottom of wedge Ascending channel forming within wedge Potential breakout to upside Pattern suggests exhaustion of selling pressure 2. US Economic Data Still Solid Q3 GDP came in at +4.3% - stronger than expected Nov pending home sales rose +3.3% m/m (vs +0.9% expected) Jobless claims unexpectedly fell US businesses see employment growth at 4.32% Revenue growth expectations at 3.83% Strong data could limit Dollar weakness 3. Safe-Haven Demand Stock market weakness boosting liquidity demand for Dollar Geopolitical tensions (Venezuela blockade, ISIS strikes in Nigeria) Ukraine-Russia peace deal uncertainty Risk-off events could boost Dollar 4. Oversold Conditions Dollar down -9.58% YTD - oversold Mean reversion possible Near 52-week low (96.218) Potential for bounce 5. "US Exceptionalism" Positioning BNY's Bob Savage: Rise above 98.15 could trigger momentum buying "US exceptionalism positioning" could resurge Dollar bulls waiting for catalyst 6. FOMC Minutes Catalyst Fed minutes due Tuesday (December 30) Could provide signals on rate cut timing Hawkish surprise could boost Dollar Key catalyst for next move Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a complex structure with potential reversal forming: Descending Wedge Pattern (Primary): Clear descending wedge established from highs Upper trendline: Falling resistance (connecting lower highs) Lower trendline: Falling support (connecting lower lows) Wedge narrowing - compression before breakout Typically bullish reversal pattern Price near apex of wedge Ascending Channel (Secondary - Forming at Bottom): Small ascending channel forming within wedge Higher lows being established Potential early reversal signal Watch for breakout above wedge resistance Key Zones Identified: Upper resistance zone: ~99.25 (major resistance) Secondary resistance: ~98.80 Current consolidation: 97.90-98.20 Support zone: ~97.85-98.00 Major support: ~97.25 52-Week Low: 96.218 Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: 98.177 - Day's high / immediate resistance 98.15 - BNY trigger level for momentum buying 98.80 - Secondary resistance zone 99.00 - Psychological resistance 99.25 - Major resistance zone 100.00 - MAJOR PSYCHOLOGICAL RESISTANCE 110.176 - 52-WEEK HIGH Support Levels: 97.959 - Recent low 97.915 - Day's low / immediate support 97.85-98.00 - Support zone 97.50 - Secondary support 97.25 - Major support 96.50 - Deep support 96.218 - 52-WEEK LOW (critical) Pattern Analysis Descending Wedge Characteristics: Pattern duration: Several weeks Wedge narrowing toward apex Volume typically decreases in wedge Breakout direction: Usually bullish (70% of cases) Target: Measured move = wedge height at breakout Current position: Near bottom of wedge Ascending Channel (Within Wedge): Small ascending channel forming Higher lows: Bullish sign Could be early reversal signal Watch for breakout above 98.80 Moving Average Analysis Price trading below major moving averages MAs sloping downward - bearish alignment Short-term MAs below long-term MAs Death cross patterns on longer timeframes MAs providing dynamic resistance on rallies SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Descending Wedge Breakout Trigger Conditions: 2H close above 98.80 (wedge resistance) Break above 99.00 psychological level Volume confirmation on breakout FOMC minutes hawkish surprise Risk-off sentiment boosting Dollar Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: 99.25 - Major resistance zone Target 2: 100.00 - Psychological level Target 3: 101.00-102.00 - Measured move target Extended: 103.00+ (trend reversal) Bullish Catalysts: Descending wedge = bullish reversal pattern (70% breakout up) Ascending channel forming at bottom US economic data still solid (GDP +4.3%) Oversold conditions (-9.58% YTD) Safe-haven demand potential FOMC minutes could be hawkish "US exceptionalism" positioning could return Mean reversion from extreme weakness BEARISH SCENARIO - Wedge Breakdown / Continuation Trigger Conditions: Break below 97.25 major support Close below 97.00 FOMC minutes dovish Fed signals more aggressive rate cuts Dovish Fed Chair announcement Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: 97.25 - Major support Target 2: 96.50 - Deep support Target 3: 96.218 - 52-week low Extended: 95.00-96.00 (new lows) Bearish Catalysts: -9.58% YTD - Worst year since 2017 Technical rating: SELL Fed rate cuts expected (~50 bp in 2026) Dovish Fed Chair concerns (Hassett) Fed liquidity injection ($40B/month) Interest rate differentials narrowing Trump tariff policy uncertainty Below major moving averages NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation in Range Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between 97.50-98.80 Thin holiday trading continues Wait for FOMC minutes Tuesday Wait for Fed Chair announcement Wedge pattern continues to compress Breakout direction unclear until catalyst MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Slight Bullish Bias The evidence is mixed, but the technical pattern suggests potential reversal: Bullish Factors: Descending wedge = typically bullish reversal Ascending channel forming at bottom Oversold conditions (-9.58% YTD) US economic data solid Safe-haven demand potential Near 52-week low (mean reversion) Bearish Factors: Technical rating: SELL Fed rate cuts expected Dovish Fed Chair concerns Fed liquidity injection Interest rate differentials narrowing Below major moving averages Worst year since 2017 My Stance: NEUTRAL - Wait for Confirmation The descending wedge pattern suggests potential bullish reversal, but fundamental headwinds are strong. The Dollar could go either way from here. Wait for FOMC minutes and a clear breakout before committing. Strategy: Wait for breakout confirmation Long above 98.80 with targets 99.25, 100.00 Short below 97.25 with targets 96.50, 96.218 Respect the wedge pattern FOMC minutes Tuesday = key catalyst Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Above 98.80 Entry Conditions: 2H close above 98.80 Volume confirmation Break above descending wedge resistance Trade Parameters: Entry: 98.85-99.00 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 98.00 below recent support Target 1: 99.25 (Risk-Reward ~1:0.5) Target 2: 100.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.2) Target 3: 101.00-102.00 (Measured move) Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade Below 97.25 Entry Conditions: 2H close below 97.25 Volume confirmation Break below major support Trade Parameters: Entry: 97.20-97.00 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 97.80 above recent resistance Target 1: 96.50 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: 96.218 (52-week low) Target 3: 95.50-96.00 (Extended) Scenario 3: Range Trade (Neutral) Entry Conditions: Price bounces at 97.50-97.85 support Bullish rejection candle No breakout yet Trade Parameters: Entry: 97.50-97.85 at support Stop Loss: 97.00 below major support Target 1: 98.50 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: 98.80 (Wedge resistance) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Wait for breakout confirmation Thin holiday volumes = wider stops FOMC minutes Tuesday = key catalyst Don't anticipate breakout direction Scale out at targets Move stop to breakeven after first target Watch for Fed Chair announcement Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 96.218 (52-week low) Descending wedge breaks down Fed signals aggressive rate cuts Dovish Fed Chair confirmed Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 99.25 (major resistance) Descending wedge breaks up with volume Fed signals no more rate cuts Risk-off surge boosts Dollar Key Events to Watch FOMC Minutes - Tuesday, December 30 Fed Chair Announcement - Early 2026 Year-End Positioning - Through January 1 BOJ Policy Signals - January 23 meeting ECB Policy - February 5 meeting Conclusion The US Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point, trading at 98.130 within a descending wedge pattern. The Dollar is on track for its worst year since 2017 with -9.58% YTD losses, but a potential bullish reversal pattern is forming. The Numbers: Current Price: 98.130 YTD Performance: -9.58% 1-Year Performance: -9.21% 52-Week High: 110.176 52-Week Low: 96.218 Technical Rating: SELL Key Levels: 99.25 - Major resistance 98.80 - Wedge resistance / breakout level 98.13 - Current price 97.85-98.00 - Support zone 97.25 - Major support 96.218 - 52-WEEK LOW The Setup: Descending wedge pattern with ascending channel forming at bottom. Fundamentals are bearish (Fed rate cuts, dovish Fed Chair concerns), but technicals suggest potential reversal. FOMC minutes Tuesday could be the catalyst. Strategy: NEUTRAL stance - wait for confirmation Long above 98.80, target 99.25, 100.00 Short below 97.25, target 96.50, 96.218 FOMC minutes Tuesday = key catalyst Respect the pattern The Dollar is at a crossroads. The descending wedge suggests potential bullish reversal, but fundamental headwinds remain strong. Wait for the breakout.
TVC:DXY
by officialjackofalltrades
BTC/ISD)Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of BTCUSD – Daily (1D) chart using SMC + Fibonacci + EMA mean-reversion logic. ⸻ Market Context • Higher-timeframe bias: Bullish (macro) • Long-term structure still intact despite the pullback • Current move down = deep corrective phase, not confirmed trend reversal yet • Price is trading below EMA 50, but reacting near EMA 200 + HTF support ⸻ What Happened (Why BTC Dropped) • Liquidity taken at the October high • Sharp impulsive sell-off → distribution + stop-hunt • Price retraced into a high-confluence discount zone ⸻ Key Demand / Accumulation Zone (Blue Area) ~85,000 – 92,000 This zone is important because it aligns with: • Fib OTE zone (0.705 – 0.79) • Previous daily demand • Range low support • Proximity to EMA 50 (93K) → mean reversion magnet • Multiple long lower wicks → absorption This suggests smart money accumulation, not panic selling. ⸻ Fibonacci Logic Measured from major swing low → all-time high • 0.5 & 0.62 → failed supports • 0.705 – 0.79 → institutional rebalance zone Textbook location for trend continuation buys ⸻ Trade Idea (Swing Long) Buy on confirmation inside demand • Entry: 86,000 – 90,000 • Stop Loss: Below demand (~82,000) • Targets: • TP1: 93,000 (EMA 50) • TP2: 101,800 (EMA 200 / mid-range) • Final TP: 121,000+ (marked target point / liquidity above highs) RR potential: 1:4 to 1:6 (swing setup) ⸻ Confirmation Signals (Very Important on BTC) Wait for at least one: • Daily or 4H bullish engulfing • Strong rejection wick from demand • 4H CHoCH after sweep of lows • Compression → expansion behavior ⸻ Invalidation • Daily close below ~82,000 • Acceptance below demand with strong volume If that happens → bullish swing idea is invalid, and market likely seeks lower HTF liquidity. ⸻ Mr SMC Trading point Summary This is a high-timeframe accumulation & continuation setup: • Deep discount • Fib OTE + demand • EMA mean reversion BTC rewards patience and HTF discipline — confirmation > prediction. If you want, I can: • Break this into a 4H / 1H execution plan • Help you build a BTC-specific SMC swing model • Or map bearish alternative scenarios for risk control Please support boost this analysis
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SMC-Trading-Point
10
GOLD VIEW 1H READ THE CHAPTIAN Hello 👋 gold Traders technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements: 1. Fair Value Gap (FVG Level): The purple zone represents an area of inefficiency where price may return to fill before continuing its trend. 2. Change of Character (CHOCH): Indicates a potential shift in market structure, suggesting bullish momentum. 3. Double Top (Red Arrows): Price was rejected twice at the same level, indicating possible resistance. 4. Moving Averages: 200 EMA (Blue Line at 2,901.507): Long-term trend indicator. 30 EMA (Red Line at 2,911.101): Short-term trend indicator. 5. Price Action Forecast: Price is expected to retrace into the FVG level before continuing upwards toward the target point at 2,961.779. This suggests a bullish outlook as long as price respects the FVG level as support. Would you like a more detailed breakdown Don't forget boost 🚀 and follow don't miss more good idea 💡
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE