#ASX: The 9,000 countdown has begun.On August 7, 2025, the #ASX index surged to an all-time high of 8,856.9 points , driven by a rare mix of catalysts: soaring gold prices lifting major miners, expectations of simultaneous easing by the RBA and the Fed boosting bank and media-tech stocks, and steady demand for iron ore and base metals pushing BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue higher. A global “risk-on” sentiment amid falling U.S. yields and short-covering added extra fuel.
Five key drivers that could push the #ASX to new heights:
1. China’s 2025 infrastructure push: Beijing is preparing an expanded lending package for transport and energy projects. This fuels iron ore and copper imports — directly boosting revenues for BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, which make up ~25% of the index.
2. Gold rally continues: The expected Fed rate cut in September pressures U.S. yields and supports gold prices. Even a move toward $3,500/oz could revive Northern Star, Evolution, and Newmont, adding dozens of points to the index.
3. Dovish RBA + weak AUD: Further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (with AUDUSD staying below 0.64) make domestic loans cheaper while increasing export margins for resource and agri stocks.
4. Green metals boom: Rising global demand for lithium, nickel, and rare earths for batteries and renewables is driving up valuations of Pilbara Minerals, IGO, Lynas, and others — boosting the materials sector’s contribution to index growth.
5. Housing sector reversal: Lower mortgage rates and tax breaks for first-home buyers are lifting transaction volumes and online demand via REA Group. Rising home prices traditionally ignite banking and construction stocks, creating a multiplier effect on the index.
#ASX has already climbed near the top — and it has at least five major “boosters” for another rally. According to FreshForex , the index could break above 9,000 even faster if three extra catalysts come into play:
1. Superannuation fund inflows shift toward equities, adding long-term capital.
2. Buybacks and M&A by giants like BHP and Commonwealth Bank reduce float and boost EPS.
3. A fresh IPO wave of lithium and AI startups injects new tech momentum.
Fundamental-analysis
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 6, 2025 GBPUSDSterling stays on the back foot ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England decision: consensus expects the Bank Rate to be held at 5.25 percent, but markets price only one or two modest cuts by year-end as inflation has slowed to 2.6 percent while June retail sales fell 0.9 percent m/m.
Additional pressure stems from fiscal concerns: the UK Treasury warned that GBP 4 billion of spending cuts will be needed in 2026 to keep the deficit at the 3 percent-of-GDP target, stoking stagflation fears and capping the pound’s upside.
The dollar is buoyed by inflows into US yield assets: the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.47 percent, widening the spread over 10-year gilts to 155 basis points—historically associated with GBPUSD weakness.
Trading Recommendation: SELL 1.32850, SL 1.33050, TP 1.31800
EUR/JPY Channel Formation (6.08.2025) The EUR/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 169.74
2nd Support – 169.25
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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 5, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI
EUR/USD continues to fall for the second day in a row, trading around 1.1560 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair is devaluing amid the strengthening of the US dollar (USD) due to caution among traders caused by recent events in global trade and changes in expectations regarding monetary policy.
Market sentiment is becoming cautious due to growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, Fed board member Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned. This event gave US President Donald Trump the opportunity to influence the central bank earlier than expected.
However, the US dollar may face difficulties amid growing chances of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September after weak labor market data reinforced concerns about the US economic outlook. Markets estimate the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month at 91.6%.
By comparison, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged, as annual inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.0% in July, slightly above the forecast of 1.9%. Meanwhile, traders are cautious amid the introduction of 15% US tariffs on goods imported from the European Union (EU).
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1580, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1685
NZD/CAD - Triangle Breakout (05.08.2025)The NZD/CAD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8096
2nd Support – 0.8087
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EUR/USD - Bearish Outlook (05.08.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.1400
2nd Support – 1.1300
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Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia — Lifting Off in the AI MarketThe “Big Three” are breaking new records: #Facebook (Meta) surged to $784.39 as AI-powered targeting tools pushed ad revenues higher, #Microsoft hit $551.10 by combining rapid Azure growth with new monetization from Copilot across its ecosystem, and # Nvidia climbed to a record $183.21, driven by unwavering demand for AI computing.
Key growth drivers:
#Facebook (Meta): Markets welcomed strong ad revenue projections, outweighing concerns about capex. AI tools for ad targeting significantly improved performance.
#Microsoft: Azure’s YoY growth reached ~39%, Copilot crossed 100M monthly users, and the company committed up to $30B in upcoming AI infrastructure.
#Nvidia: Persistent demand for AI GPUs and networking gear from hyperscalers, plus a $4T valuation milestone, keeps momentum strong.
What’s fueling continued upside:
#Facebook (Meta): AI tools like Advantage+ improve audience targeting and ad creatives, while Reels and recommendation feeds increase impressions and eCPM. Large-scale investment in data centers and in-house AI models open new monetization paths. Stable rate expectations also favor growth stocks like META.
#Microsoft: Growth is driven by Azure’s ongoing expansion (~39% YoY), the second wave of cloud migration, and strong monetization via Microsoft 365 and GitHub Copilot. A $30B capex plan will expand data center capacity. A broad portfolio — Windows, Office, Gaming — supports steady margins.
#Nvidia: The AI compute supercycle is in full swing. Demand for H-series GPUs and InfiniBand networks exceeds supply. The clear upgrade roadmap (H200/Blackwell) extends through 2026, while CUDA ecosystem expansion strengthens customer lock-in. Strong cash flow and record valuation support M&A, buybacks, and accelerated development.
According to FreshForex , current price levels make #Meta and #Microsoft attractive for long positions. #Nvidia offers room for both upside and pullbacks, depending on news flow.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 4, 2025 USDJPYAfter Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report, USD/JPY fell sharply, breaking below 150. At the start of the new week the pair stabilized around 147–148, yet the fundamental backdrop remains tilted against the dollar: expectations for Fed cuts in the coming months are weighing on U.S. yields and narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield spread—the primary long-run driver of USD/JPY.
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The Bank of Japan continues an ultra-loose stance, with forecasts showing inflation around target but little appetite for aggressive tightening in the near term. That leaves the main channel of yen support tied to U.S. yield dynamics and global demand for safe-haven assets. With softer U.S. yields and elevated U.S. political uncertainty, demand for defensive currencies may stay resilient.
Additional risk factors include commentary from Japan’s Ministry of Finance regarding the yen and potential bouts of volatility around Fed communications and incoming U.S. data. Today’s base case favors selling USD/JPY on corrective upticks toward 146, as pressure from lower U.S. yields persists.
Trade idea: SELL 147.550, SL 148.550, TP 146.050
GBP/CAD - H4 - Bearish Flag (26.07.2025)The GBP/CAD Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.8242
2nd Support – 1.8139
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NZDJPY – Bearish Momentum BuildingPair: NZDJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Setup:
NZDJPY has broken sharply from its recent consolidation and is now testing a critical 4H support zone near 87.00. A decisive break below this zone would open the path toward lower support levels.
📍 Entry Trigger: Break and close below 86.95
🎯 Target 1: 85.95
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 87.35
📉 RSI: Near oversold, confirming strong bearish pressure
This setup reflects a classic bearish continuation with momentum and structure aligned.
🧠 Fundamental + Macro Confluence:
🔻 New Zealand (NZD):
RBNZ cut rates to 3.25% citing weak inflation, growth slowdown, and spare capacity.
Employment data remains fragile; upcoming releases add downside risk.
NZD is under pressure due to falling export demand amid global trade tensions.
CFTC positioning shows longs reducing, net positioning weakening — sentiment turning bearish.
🔺 Japan (JPY):
Bank of Japan is gradually tightening — while still accommodative, the bias is shifting hawkish.
JPY benefits as risk-off sentiment grows — fueled by weak equity markets and rising VIX (20.42).
CFTC shows a massive drop in NNCs, aligning with institutional flows favoring JPY strength.
🌐 Risk Sentiment:
VIX > 20 confirms risk-off sentiment, bolstering safe-haven demand for JPY.
NZD, being a high-beta risk currency, weakens as global risk appetite fades.
Seasonal bias also aligns with weakness in NZD and strength in JPY.
📌 Final Take:
Macro, sentiment, and technicals all align for further downside in NZDJPY. Watch for a clean H4 close below 86.95 to confirm entry. This pair offers strong confluence — from central bank divergence to institutional flows and global volatility.
GBPJPY – Bearish Continuation Setup AheadPair: GBPJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Overview:
GBPJPY has broken down with high momentum and is now hovering at a 4H support zone (195.30). A clean break and close below this level opens the door for a deeper move toward the next support areas:
Entry Trigger: Break below 195.30
🎯 Target 1: 194.05
🎯 Target 2: 192.50
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 195.95 (previous resistance-turned-supply zone)
📉 RSI: 27.63 (Oversold but momentum-driven selloff suggests more downside)
🧠 Macro + Fundamental Confluence:
🏦 Central Bank Policy:
BOE (Bank of England) cut rates by 25bps (to 4.25%) in a hawkish tone, with internal disagreement (7–2 vote), signaling uncertainty and potential for further divergence.
Despite the “hawkish cut,” the market interpreted it cautiously, especially with falling UK economic momentum and weak retail data.
💴 Bank of Japan:
BoJ is slowly tightening policy — signaling an eventual exit from ultra-loose conditions.
Real interest rates remain negative, but the direction is now incrementally hawkish, strengthening the JPY across the board.
💡 Market Sentiment:
VIX at 20.42 = Risk-Off Environment → capital flows into safe-haven JPY, out of GBP.
With Nasdaq bullish, but volatility ticking up, JPY benefits from its safe-haven role.
📊 CFTC Positioning:
GBP: Longs decreasing, shorts rising, NNCs decreasing → Bearish bias
JPY: Longs flat, but massive drop in NNCs → institutional positioning is turning defensive
🧾 Economic Weakness:
UK Services PMI showing signs of stagnation
CPI and Retail Sales remain weak, suggesting limited scope for further GBP upside
Japan's latest Household Spending and Economy Watchers Survey show stabilizing conditions, supporting yen strength
📌 Final Take:
Fundamentals support the breakdown as monetary divergence and global sentiment drive capital into the JPY. Watch for confirmation via H4 close below 195.30 before entering the trade.
🧭 Trade idea aligns with macro, technicals, seasonality, and institutional flows.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound remains under pressure due to the strengthening of the dollar and expectations of further easing of the Bank of England's policy at its meeting on August 7. The regulator's rhetoric in June-July pointed to a “gradual and cautious” course of rate cuts amid weak growth, and the market is pricing in the likelihood of another move at the next meeting. The situation is complicated by the fact that July inflation in Britain unexpectedly accelerated, but the regulator interprets it as a temporary consequence of tariff and price shocks, not wanting to tighten financial conditions excessively.
The external environment is also unfavorable for the GBP: the US has imposed new tariffs on a number of trading partners, strengthening demand for the dollar as a risk-free asset. For the UK, the trade implications are mixed: part of the supply chain is focused on the dollar zone, and industry is sensitive to global demand, which, in the context of prolonged uncertainty, is hitting investment and employment expectations. The risks of a decline in private sector business activity remain elevated.
Today, attention is focused on US employment data: if the labor market confirms its stability, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September will decrease further, which will keep the dollar in the ascendancy. All these factors combined create a bearish bias for GBPUSD in the short term, with any brief rebounds from local oversold conditions typically being used for selling.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.32000, SL 1.32500, TP 1.31000
XAU/USD (Gold) - Triangle Breakout (1.08.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3249
2nd Support – 3225
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DXY USDOLLAR CRASH Incoming!Long-term fundamentals are bearish
Long-term sentiment = bearish
Long-term technicals = bearish
Trump wants a weaker dollar + FED injecting endless amounts of cash into the markets
driving stocks/ gold up, and the dollar down, losing purchasing power.
My plan is to look for shorts on the 1hr-4hr timeframe with lower timeframe confirmation.
Once price starts turning over, day-traders can join in.
Agree or disagree?
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 31, 2025 GBPUSDGBPUSD:
The pound remains under pressure as consumer spending and the labor market in the UK are weakening, reducing the likelihood of an aggressive response from the Bank of England. Core inflation has dropped to 3.3% y/y – the lowest in two years – allowing the regulator to keep rates steady for longer.
External factors are also unfavorable: demand for the defensive dollar is strengthening ahead of the FOMC meeting, and the yield spread between 10-year gilts and USTs has narrowed to 115 basis points – the lowest since March, stimulating flows into the dollar.
Additional negative dynamics come from the rise in the UK current account deficit to 3.9% of GDP, amid higher prices for imported energy and declining exports of services. Expectations of tighter fiscal consolidation are increasing fiscal risks and encouraging investors to reduce long GBP positions.
Risks to the bearish outlook are limited: these would be a surprise in the form of hawkish Bank of England comments or a sharp deterioration in US macro data that could weaken the dollar.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.32700, SL 1.32900, TP 1.31700
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (30.07.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3360
2nd Resistance – 3377
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DCF VALUATION ANALYSIS OF BSEConclusion: OVERVALUED
:-OVERVIEW
BSE Limited has shown strong financial growth in recent years. Its revenue jumped from ₹924.84 crore in FY23 to ₹1,592.50 crore in FY24 (a 72% increase), and further surged to ₹3,212 crore in FY25, doubling year-on-year. EBITDA grew impressively to ₹1,779 crore in FY25 with a 60% increase, and EBIT reached ₹1,670 crore, up 56%. Net profit also rose significantly to ₹1,112 crore, with earnings per share increasing to ₹81. Dividend per share improved to ₹23, reflecting healthy returns
DCF:
-The valuation was performed using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach based purely on verified financial data and market risk parameters without relying on user-specific growth assumptions.
-The cost of equity was calculated using an adjusted risk-free rate plus equity risk premium multiplied by beta, resulting in a discount rate of approximately 13.58%. The terminal growth rate was conservatively taken as 4%. Using these reliable inputs and actual EBIT cash flows, the intrinsic enterprise value was estimated at around ₹36,839 crore, translating to an intrinsic value per share of approximately ₹1,364.
-Currently, BSE’s market price is around ₹2,480 per share, which is substantially higher than the intrinsic value derived from fundamentals, indicating the stock is trading at a significant premium. This valuation is grounded in audited company financials and globally accepted valuation methodologies, providing a trustworthy reference point for investors.
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 29, 2025 EURUSDThe pair is consolidating at 148.500, leaving behind a nearly 1% gain since the start of the week. High Treasury yields (10-year bonds — 4.34%) are supporting demand for the dollar, while the easing of the US-Japan trade conflict is reducing defensive demand for the yen. As part of yesterday's statement by the US Treasury, tariffs on Japanese cars are being reduced to 10%, which improves the outlook for export-oriented corporations, but at the same time reduces investors' need for safe-haven currencies.
Despite inflation of 3.7% y/y and rising food costs, the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its rate at 0.5% following its July 30-31 meeting and only revise its CPI forecasts upward. Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Hiroshi Nakaso acknowledges that further increases are only possible after assessing the effect of US tariffs, i.e., not before 2026. This scenario reinforces negative real interest rates and a widening yield differential with the US.
In addition, the inflow of Japanese investment into foreign bonds has resumed amid confidence in a gradual, rather than sharp, normalization of BOJ policy. Taken together, these factors point to the likelihood of a test of 150.00 in the coming days in the absence of verbal intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
Trading recommendation: BUY 148.500, SL 147.900, TP 150.500
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 28, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound is sliding to 1.34250, reacting to a fresh slowdown in UK inflation and reduced expectations of further tightening from the Bank of England. The annual CPI for June fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2022, allowing the regulator to keep rates unchanged at the August meeting.
Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields intensify capital inflows into dollar assets after a strong US Q2 GDP report (+2.4% q/q). The British economy remains close to stagnation: the services PMI fell to 49.8, indicating shrinking orders and wage pressure.
Political risks also weigh on the pound: the ruling party's parliamentary majority shrank after unscheduled by-elections, complicating the government's implementation of fiscal stimulus. Collectively, this increases the attractiveness of selling the pair ahead of the Fed meeting, where markets price in a possible rate hike by year-end.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.34250, SL 1.34450, TP 1.33250
USOIL Analysis : MMC Bullish Setup Building on USOIL – Target🧠 Introduction & Trade Philosophy
In today’s 4H USOIL chart analysis, we are at a critical decision-making zone, where price action is preparing to make a major move in either direction, based on the response to a central demand zone. We are applying the MMC Rule, which emphasizes mirroring supply-demand behavior and validating market moves through structural confirmation.
The current price structure presents a classic MMC scenario, where price must either confirm a bullish double demand reaction or invalidate the setup by breaking the key zone and moving bearish.
📍 Chart Structure Explained
🔷 1. Central Reversal Zones (CRZs)
There are two CRZs highlighted:
The upper CRZ around 65.90–66.20, where price was previously rejected.
The lower CRZ, where price is currently consolidating, is around 64.80–65.50.
These zones are liquidity-rich areas where big players react—either by absorbing positions or driving directional moves.
🟢 2. Bullish Scenario – MMC Rule In Play (Path 1)
"If we want it bullish, we want 50% supply and demand will be double according to MMC Rule"
According to MMC, a bullish move must be confirmed by a strong reaction from demand, showing double the pressure of the last bearish move. Here's how that plays out:
Price respects the lower CRZ, bouncing near the 65.00 mark.
If this bounce gains momentum and breaks above the trendline resistance, the first target is the minor resistance at $69.00, followed by the major resistance zone near $70.50–$71.00.
A retest of broken structure, followed by bullish continuation, is expected. This is marked with the white zigzag projection labeled as “1” on the chart.
Watch for a clear higher high formation, which would indicate a shift in structure and validate bullish momentum.
🔻 3. Bearish Scenario – Breakdown Confirmation (Path 2)
"If it breaks, USOIL will go bearish"
If price fails to hold the current demand and closes below $64.80–64.50, it signals that demand has been absorbed, and MMC reversal has failed. In that case:
A clean breakdown below the demand zone will confirm bearish control.
The next downside target becomes $62.00, as labeled “2” on the chart.
The downward move is likely to follow a steep path as marked with the sharp downward trendline extension, especially if supported by volume and news catalysts.
🔄 Mirror Concept Highlight – Ellipse Area
The ellipse shape on the chart marks a previous compression zone followed by a breakout. This area represents an imbalance in supply that led to a sell-off. The MMC principle suggests the market tends to mirror these zones—if that was previous supply, and the current demand zone mirrors its positioning and structure, we can anticipate a similar reaction, but to the upside.
This is where the "50% double reaction" rule comes in—demand needs to show twice the strength to overcome the previous sell-side pressure.
🔧 Technical Levels Summary
Zone Type Price Range Notes
Major Resistance 70.50 – 71.00 Final target if bullish scenario plays out
Minor Resistance 68.80 – 69.20 First bullish checkpoint
Upper CRZ 65.90 – 66.20 Key structure to break for bulls
Lower CRZ (Support) 64.80 – 65.50 Demand base for bullish setup
Bearish Target Zone 62.00 – 61.80 Projected zone if support breaks
🧭 Trader’s Mindset & Risk Notes (MMC Style)
Wait for clear confirmation and price behavior near the CRZs before entering.
Use trendline breaks, candlestick confirmation, and volume to validate direction.
Avoid guessing the direction—let price tell the story.
Stick to MMC rules: No confirmation, no position.
✅ Bullish Criteria Checklist:
✔️ Price respects lower CRZ
✔️ Breakout above trendline
✔️ Closes above $66.20
✔️ Higher highs + strong bullish candles
✔️ MMC Double Demand Reaction Confirmed
❌ Bearish Breakdown Triggers:
❌ Breaks below $64.50
❌ Weak bounce + lower highs
❌ Volume increases on downside
❌ Clean breakdown structure
🚀 Trade Plan & Outlook
We’re now at a critical zone where market sentiment will soon be clear. Based on your MMC analysis, the bias remains bullish as long as price holds above $64.80. Be patient and let the setup complete with structure confirmation.
This is not just a technical play—it's a psychological zone, where institutional traders also make decisions. Follow the MMC logic and react with confirmation.
TON/USDT - Bullish Channel in H4 (27.07.2025)The TON/USDT pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming Days.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3.770
2nd Resistance – 3.989
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AUD/USD - Breakout (25.07.2025)The AUD/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.6551
2nd Support – 0.6513
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