What to Expect this week for EURUSDThe price has been forming a clear Elliott Wave pattern to the upside since early November 2025. The first impulse wave retraced to the 78.6% level, followed by another bullish impulse that pulled back to the 38.2% level. A pullback to the 38.2% or 28.6% level typically indicates strong bullish momentum. As we observe the final impulse in the classic Elliott Wave structure, the price has now pulled back to the 50% level, a deeper correction than the previous 38.2%. This suggests the price may be starting to reverse. The key question is whether the price will break below the ascending trendline. I believe there is a strong possibility of this occurring. Let’s review the economic calendar for this week’s upcoming risk events.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK
📅 Tuesday, Jan 6
* Germany CPI / HICP Flash (Dec) – headline and harmonized inflation — market-moving for EUR and ECB expectations. Scheduled for ~13:00 GMT.
📅 Wednesday, Jan 7
* Eurozone CPI Flash (Dec) – inflation for euro area (headline + core) ahead of ECB context.
* ADP Employment Change (Dec) – private payrolls preview of Friday’s jobs.
* ISM Services PMI (Dec) – key for services-led U.S. economy.
📅 Thursday, Jan 8
* Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov) – growth/employment gauge for ECB outlook.
* Weekly Jobless Claims – labor market breadth check.
* Trade Balance (Oct) – net-exports impact on GDP narrative.
🔥 Friday, Jan 9
* Eurozone Retail Sales (Nov) – consumer demand signal.
* U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) – the big one for USD volatility (jobs + wages + unemployment).
Key levels to watch
Upside: Analysts highlight 1.1760–1.1807 as immediate resistance; a firm break and hold above this zone opens room toward previous highs near 1.1840–1.1917.
Downside: Supports are clustered around 1.1700–1.1702; a decisive break below could shift bias back toward 1.16–1.15 in a deeper correction of the recent uptrend.
What to expect this week
Many short‑term outlooks describe the bias as cautiously bullish or neutral as long as EUR/USD holds above roughly 1.17, with the broader trend still pointed higher after the move up from 1.1585 and, earlier, from near 1.04.
Direction is expected to depend heavily on upcoming U.S. employment and inflation releases and key Eurozone data, with the possibility of sharp intraday swings despite relatively contained overall ranges.
