Starting with the 4 hour chart, I like the fact that RSI is above 50 while we're not too far away from the 200 SMA. If we can break above the 200 SMA on the 4 hour, this should validate my next predications on the larger timeframes.
Let's take a look at the Daily chart.
So, the daily chart has some...
Starting with the 1 hour timeframe, as we head into the NY trading session, traders will keep an eye out for the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 with expectations for an improvement from -9.10 to -5.00
As of writing this analysis, bullish price action is beginning to stall out.
Let's now take a look at the 4 hour timeframe
== 4 HOUR...
If price can drop down to 1.16, based on the current chart read, I suspect a 30-50 pip scalp off that level should be fairly low risk. A break lower however, may expose the ascending channel support for a second bullish retry to the upside.
At this stage, going short doesn't feel like a low risk setup as a pullback seems possible. But the question is, how much of a pullback will we get? Will price action trade back in the previous descending channel, or will we get some bearish continuation off the descending channel resistance?
For this reason, I'm staying out of this pair and waiting for a better setup
Waiting for a long entry around the 1.01 handle. Currently price action is in a profit taking phase so a short at these levels seems like it should work but if you're interested in only low risk setups, wait for the retracement to 1.01
On the 15 min timeframe above, I'm waiting for price action to tag the 200 SMA for a potential buy scalp trade. Bullish confirmations on large timeframes are below.
== DAILY ==
1. RSI Above 50
2. Above 200 SMA
3. Natural Intraday Pullback
== WEEKLY ==...
The 4 hour chart above shows some bullish exhaustion as the bears start to close in. With that said, there's a good chance of another retest of the 200 SMA on the 4 chart before this pair makes higher highs. Stochastics is overbought and momentum candles have faded. This only leaves room for a possible reversal at this stage.
Trade Safe - All the Best
I wont' spend too much time explaining my thoughts about this pair. The above chart illustrates in a nutshell my expected predicted projection for EURUSD - around 3rd week price to be around 1.03
Now let's take a closer look at some of my thoughts.
Jumping over to the daily.
Reasons to be long...
Starting with the 4hour chart above.
At time of writing this thesis, I'm not seeing any reasons to go long with this pair leaving only further downside probability in play.
RSI is trading below 50 and larger timeframes remain bearish. See further details below.
== DAILY ==
* Downside pressure...
Starting with the 4hour chart above, price action currently trades just above the 1.38 handle. As of writing this article, there are still lots of bullish indications in play such as the ascending channel, RSI above 50, and price action above the 200SMA.
== DAILY ==
Currently price action consolidates on the daily timeframe as traders wait for the wedge breakout. My guess is that we're more likely to break lower as US inflation continues to rise pushing the USD higher and thus BTC lower.
If we get the breakout, personally I'm not interested in chasing the train but will wait for potential buying opportunity around the area I...
Cable weakened following this morning's CPI data despite better than analysts forecast.
CPI (YoY) (Sep): Actual: 10.1% Forecast: 10% Prev: 9.9%
Now the question is: "Will the Sunday gap be closed by end of day?"