We’ve seen some selling of gold in early Asia trade today, but after a solid 2.8% rally last week the gold bulls really needed follow-through selling in the USD to push the price into $2400 - the surprise second-round French election outcome is certainly curbing interest to buy EURs today and that is limiting moves in the USD.
The tailwinds do suggest pullbacks...
Taking a short-term view, the oil market feels delicately poised and what happens over the next 24-48 hours could be very telling for the near-term passage of play.
After a near 14% rally from the 4 June lows, which took price through the May range highs of $80.91, and after a huge bullish position adjustment in both Brent and WTI futures, we’ve seen price pull...
• Month and quarter-end flows to impact price action
• The US Presidential elections kick up a gear
• Managing risk around the French 1st round vote
• US Core PCE is the marquee data point of the week
• Australia's monthly CPI a potential kicker for the AUD
• Central bank meetings due this week
• Long MXN back in vogue
For the week ahead there is a fair...
The oil market has the wind to its back as we head into the Northern Hemisphere Summer, with WTI crude having rallied 13% since the 4 June lows. The rally from $72 has seen price retrace a decent portion of the falls seen between April and June - which resulted in the market running one of the most bearish positions we’ve seen in years. Clearly, the demand side of...
The big picture on gold is that price is in wait-and-see mode, and assessing what comes next in US economic trends, Fed policy and EM central bank gold purchases. The clearly defined range of $2430 to $2285 reflects this patient stance, although, within the $145 range, there are moves being made that traders are capitalizing on. Still, I expect we’ll see these...
• Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We...