MU GEX - Potential Call Gamma Squeeze🔶 MU — Call Resistance at 400 Becomes the Decision Point 🔶
MU continued higher last week and tagged the 400 level , which now stands out as the largest call resistance on the board.
That level matters.
🔶 Structural Context 🔶
Price has reached a key call wall at 400 🟢
Momentum remains strong 🟢
Gamma dynamics are increasingly important here 🔵
In MU, the flow looks very similar to other momentum-driven tech names:
Retail positioned long calls
Dealers short calls , hedging via underlying buying
That creates a reflexive loop :
👉 strength forces dealers to buy more stock
👉 which can amplify upside if resistance breaks cleanly 🟢
🔶 Additional Context 🔶
Call pricing skew has expanded further 🟢
Calls are getting richer → sentiment remains bullish
Elevated skew also means expectations are crowded 🔵
🔶 What to Watch 🔶 💡
The 400 level is the inflection point .
Acceptance above 400 → opens the door for a call gamma squeeze 🟢
Rejection at 400 → likely leads to consolidation or pullback 🔴
As always, the tell is momentum + follow-through , not the level itself. MU is strong — but this is where structure decides whether the move accelerates or pauses.
Gammaexposure
IREN - Pressure Building Near Call ResistanceIREN is quietly building pressure.
For five consecutive sessions, price has been compressing in a tight range, holding above HVL , which already tells us the gamma environment remains supportive . 🟢
🔶 Key Structure 🔶
Price holding above HVL 🟢
Tight daily range → volatility compression 🔵
Major call resistance at 60 🟢
This setup matters because of who is positioned where .
In names like IREN, the flow is typically:
Retail long calls
Dealers short calls, hedging by buying the underlying
That dynamic means any sustained move toward — or through — the 60 call resistance can trigger a gamma-driven acceleration , as dealers are forced to add delta on strength rather than fade it.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
Call pricing skew ~82% 🟢
Calls are significantly richer than puts
Options market sentiment is clearly bullish but it doesn't meean it will go up immediately.
🔶 Bottom Line 🔶
IREN is coiling above HVL with heavy call skew. If price engages the 60 level with momentum, the structure is set up for a call gamma squeeze , not a slow grind.
This is a classic “pressure first, expansion later” setup — worth keeping on the radar.
AVGO – Breakdown Below HVL🔶 AVGO – Breakdown Below HVL, Negative GEX Targets Gap Fill 🔶
AVGO has cleanly broken below the High Volatility Level (HVL) , which was previously holding around 330 . This breakdown marks a clear regime shift , pushing the market into a 🔴 negative GEX environment where downside sensitivity and volatility expansion tend to dominate.
With HVL lost , price action becomes more reactive, and moves are less likely to be absorbed smoothly.
🔶 Structural Context 🔶
From a structural perspective, AVGO is now moving into a gap-fill phase . The gap below price is in the process of being filled and is likely to act as a short-term downside magnet .
🔶 Current Options Structure 🔶
297.5 – primary put support 🔴
310 – overhead resistance zone, aligned with the 100-day moving average 🔵
As long as price remains below HVL and under the 100 SMA , rallies are more likely to be sold rather than sustained .
🔶 Volatility Dynamics 🔶
GEX profile is negative , favoring directional expansion rather than compression 🔴
Implied volatility has been rising steadily over the past 5 sessions , confirming growing demand for downside protection and positioning into volatility
In a negative GEX regime , downside moves tend to accelerate once support levels are tested , rather than grind slowly.
🔶 Key Levels to Watch 🔶
330 (HVL) – invalidation / regime flip level 🔵
311 (100 SMA) – overhead resistance 🔵
297.5 – put support / downside reference 🔴
As long as AVGO remains below HVL with a negative GEX profile , the path of least resistance remains lower , with volatility expected to stay elevated until the gap is fully resolved or structure changes.
SPX – GEX 6800 Put Support Holds🔶 SPX – 6800 Put Support Holds, Pricing Skew Mean-Reversion 🔶
On the daily chart, SPX found clean support at the 6800 put level , tied to the Jan 23 expiration . That level absorbed yesterday’s downside pressure, and price has been rotating higher since the bounce. 🟢
🔶 Options Structure 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the range is now clearly defined:
6800 acts as the primary put support 🔴
6915 marks the next call resistance on the weekly expiration 🟢
One of the most important signals comes from the Options Oscillator . Yesterday, put pricing skew reached a historically extreme level , indicating significant put overpricing relative to calls. Since then, we’ve seen a sharp mean-reversion in skew, suggesting that downside hedging pressure is easing.
That said, caution is still warranted . SPX remains below the High Volatility Level (HVL) , a regime where price action tends to be faster and more reactive, with elevated volatility. 🔵
If 6800 continues to hold , the next key test is the HVL zone around 6895 . A reclaim above HVL would shift the regime toward more controlled price behavior and opens the path toward 6915 call resistance as the next upside reference. 🟢
🔶 Key Levels to Watch 🔶
6800 – put support / downside anchor 🔴
6895 (HVL) – regime pivot 🔵
6915 – next call resistance (weekly) 🟢
As long as price holds above 6800 , the structure favors continued upside rotation , but sustained strength likely requires a reclaim above HVL . Failure to hold 6800 would quickly reintroduce downside volatility .
SPX – GEX Back to Positive🔶 SPX – HVL Reclaim & GEX Shift 🔶
SPX briefly traded below the High Volatility Level (HVL) yesterday, entering a 🔴 negative GEX regime , which increased downside sensitivity and intraday volatility. However, that breakdown failed to follow through.
Price has since reclaimed the HVL , and based on the 01/16 GEX profile , SPX is now back in 🟢 positive GEX territory , signaling a structural shift away from downside acceleration and back toward dealer-supported price behavior.
On the daily chart, this reclaim occurred directly off the rising trendline , which has defined the broader uptrend. The successful defense of this trend support suggests that the move below HVL was a temporary liquidity sweep rather than a regime change.
With HVL reclaimed and GEX flipping positive again, 🟢 upside flows regain control , and price becomes more responsive to call-side positioning rather than put hedging pressure.
🔶 Options Structure – Upside Reference 🔶
From an options structure perspective, the next major upside reference is the 7000 level , which represents:
a key call resistance zone
the dominant upside magnet in the current positive GEX environment
a natural extension target following the trendline bounce
🔶 Key Structure to Monitor 🔶
HVL – reclaimed, now acting as regime pivot 🟢
Rising trendline – trend integrity confirmed 🟢
Positive GEX (01/16) – supportive dealer positioning 🟢
7000 – primary upside target / call resistance 🟢
As long as SPX holds above HVL and the rising trendline , downside volatility should remain contained, and 🟢 rotation toward 7000 remains the higher-probability path. Failure to hold HVL would be the clearest signal that 🔴 negative GEX dynamics are reasserting.
PLTR - GEX Compression Signals BreakoutPLTR has entered a tight volatility compression phase , both on price and in the GEX profile , which is now clearly squeezed between well-defined option levels. 🔵
🔶 Current Structure 🔶
Call resistance sits at 190
Put support is defined at 170
Price has been trading in a narrow range for over a week , confirming balance rather than trend 🔵
This type of GEX compression + price compression rarely persists for long, especially in a high-beta tech name like PLTR. Historically, these regimes resolve via sharp directional expansion , not slow grind.
From a regime perspective, PLTR is currently trading below the HVL , which keeps downside sensitivity elevated. A clean break below 170 would likely trigger 🔴 negative gamma dynamics , opening the door for accelerated downside.
🔶 Options Sentiment 🔶
Call pricing skew is elevated near 40% , signaling stronger call demand despite range-bound price 🟢
Implied volatility has been rising steadily over the past 5 sessions , confirming positioning ahead of a catalyst
Earnings are scheduled for 02/02 , adding fuel to an already compressed structure
🔶 Key Structure to Watch 🔶
170 – put support / downside trigger 🔴
190 – call resistance / upside breakout level 🟢
HVL – regime pivot 🔵
Compressed GEX profile – volatility expansion risk 🔵
With price, GEX, and volatility all compressing simultaneously, PLTR is setting up for a near-term breakout , with earnings acting as a potential catalyst. Direction will be determined by which side of the GEX range resolves first.
NVDA – Consolidation Breakout Toward 200 Core Resistance?🔶 Downside structure
Looking at NVDA on the daily chart, one level clearly stands out on the downside:
170 PUT support , where price has bounced multiple times in the past. This level has been well defended by put positioning, creating a solid structural floor. 🔴
🔶 Consolidation behavior
Over the past weeks, price spent a considerable amount of time sitting on the 50-day moving average , repeatedly testing it from below but failing to break through decisively. That dynamic now appears to be changing. NVDA is starting to push higher, suggesting a potential breakout from this consolidation range. 🟢
🔶 Upside reference level
If this breakout holds, the next key level to watch is 200 Call Resistance . This is currently the largest Call Resistance on the board, and it also aligns with an 8/8 MM level , adding technical confluence to the zone. 🟢
🔶 Options sentiment context
What’s important here is sentiment:
🔵 Call Pricing Skew is currently minimal, meaning the options market is not aggressively positioned for upside yet. This keeps the move cleaner and reduces the risk of an overcrowded bullish trade. In other words, this is not a euphoric call-heavy environment, which often allows price to travel further if momentum builds.
🔶 Scenario
🟢 If NVDA successfully breaks out of this consolidation and holds above the 50-day MA , a move toward the 200 Call Resistance becomes a very realistic upside target.
🔶 Key levels
🔴 PUT Support: 170
🔵 Trigger: Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA
🟢 Upside Target: 200 Call Resistance (8/8 MM)
Not financial advice — just a clean structure driven by price, positioning, and option market context.
Positive GEX Profile Points Toward 700 Gap FillMETA – Holding Above HVL, 50 DMA Reclaim in Progress, Upside Call Resistance at 700
META is currently trading below the 200-day moving average , but recent price action suggests a potential structural improvement rather than continued weakness.
From an options perspective, the broader structure remains Positive GEX , indicating that dealer positioning is still supportive on pullbacks. At the same time, IV remains low , which typically favors range expansion and directional follow-through once key technical levels are reclaimed.
On the daily chart, price is now starting to reclaim the 50-day moving average , a level that previously acted as dynamic resistance. Importantly, META is also holding above the High Volatility Level (HVL) , which keeps the short-term regime constructive rather than defensive.
Volatility conditions remain favorable:
Call Pricing Skew is elevated (~31.6%), showing persistent call demand
IV remains controlled, allowing price to move without immediate volatility compression pressure
Looking forward, the most important upside call resistance is the 700 level, which represents:
Highest core call resistance on the Feb 20 (Optimal Monthly) expiration
A major gap fill from the prior breakdown
A clear technical resistance zone visible on the daily chart
This confluence makes 700 a logical upside target if price can hold above HVL and fully reclaim the 50 DMA.
Key structure to watch:
200 DMA – higher timeframe resistance overhead
50 DMA – short-term trend reclaim in progress
HVL – holding above keeps structure constructive
700 – primary upside target (gap fill + core call resistance)
As long as price holds above HVL with supportive GEX structure, rotational upside toward 700 remains the higher-probability path .
PLTR GEX - Bull Flag Breakout SetupPLTR Technical & Options Setup Overview
PLTR is setting up a clean bull flag breakout on the daily chart, following a strong impulsive leg higher.
The consolidation has been holding above the 50-day moving average , which has acted as dynamic support throughout the flag structure. Two sessions ago price briefly dipped below the 50 SMA, but that weakness was immediately bought, signaling strong dip demand and structural acceptance above this level.
From an options perspective, the setup remains supportive. On the Feb 20 (Optimal Monthly) expiration, PLTR shows a Positive GEX Profile .
Volatility and skew conditions further strengthen the bullish case:
Core Call Pricing Skew is elevated (~36%), indicating persistent call demand
Implied volatility remains relatively low, leaving room for price expansion without volatility headwinds
Looking ahead, the next major reference is the 200 level , which represents the primary Core Resistance for the Optimal Monthly cycle. Given the compression within the bull flag and supportive options structure, 200 becomes a natural upside objective if the breakout confirms.
Structure to watch:
50 SMA – key trend support
Bull flag high – breakout trigger
Positive GEX – supportive dealer flow
200 – next major upside target (Core Resistance)
As long as price holds above the 50 DMA and volatility stays contained, risk remains skewed to the upside, with a measured breakout toward 200 favored.
Protective Put Support Zone & Gap FillAVGO – Breakdown Below HVL, Gap Fill Toward 320, Protective Put Support Zone
AVGO is trading in a high-volatility, momentum-driven downside phase , following a clean breakdown below the HVL. The move marks a clear regime shift, as price exited a tight transition zone and accelerated lower with conviction.
The downside was well signaled by sustained put-side pressure over multiple sessions, with price repeatedly rejecting from the 50 EMA . Once HVL failed, downside momentum expanded rapidly, consistent with a retail-driven move rather than a controlled dealer-defended range.
From an options structure perspective, protective put positioning now defines the next meaningful downside reference. Current positioning shows the next major protective put support clustered around 320 , which also aligns with a clean gap-fill level on the chart.
This makes 320 a dual-confluence area:
technical gap fill
protective put floor where dealer hedging dynamics may begin to dampen downside momentum
Until that zone is reached, price is effectively moving through thin structure, where volatility expansion and sharp intraday swings should be expected.
Key levels & structure:
Below HVL → bearish regime confirmed
50 EMA → repeated rejection, trend continuation signal
320 → primary downside target & potential stabilization zone (gap fill + protective puts)
Any stabilization or bounce attempts are more likely to occur only after interaction with the 320 area, not before.
GOOGL GEX & Bullish Decision Point at 320February 20 Expiration – GEX & Options Structure
Looking at the February 20 expiration, the options and GEX structure suggests that price is currently sitting at a critical decision zone .
Put side
The chart shows a clear put support level around 310 .
Price has briefly traded through this level, but there has been no strong downside continuation .
This keeps the scenario alive that 310 can still act as put support into this expiration.
Call side / Decision point
The next core resistance is located around 320 .
This level represents a bullish decision zone .
A clean break and acceptance above 320 could quickly shift dealer positioning.
Such a move would open the door for a potential gamma squeeze to the upside.
Technical context
Since summer, this is already the third similar bull flag structure on the daily chart.
The previous two structures resolved to the upside.
The current pattern has not yet confirmed a breakout.
This makes the 320 level especially important for technical confirmation.
Upside scenario
If price accepts above 320 , the next logical magnet becomes the next core resistance.
Based on daily structure and call wall positioning, this sits around 350 .
Volatility & Skew
Core pricing skew is currently around +25% , favoring calls.
Implied volatility has been compressing for several sessions .
This supports the idea that a directional expansion could follow once price resolves this range.
Summary
310 = key put support
320 = bullish decision point
Acceptance above 320 increases the probability of gamma-driven upside toward higher call resistance levels
MSFT Potential Upside Squeeze SetupMSFT is currently forming a constructive structure with clearly defined levels.
On the downside, the 475 put support has been defended three separate times, signaling strong positioning interest and consistent absorption of selling pressure. Price continues to hold above the HVL , with an extremely narrow transition zone and a broadening upward-tilted positive GEX profile — all reinforcing structural stability.
If price breaks upward from the first call wall at 480 , this typically favors continuation rather than any sustained move lower.
Upside levels :
The next major call resistance sits at 500 — which also aligns with the 8/8 level on the MM grid system . This creates a very strong confluence, making 500 a significant resistance zone.
If price cleanly accepts and pushes through 500, dealer hedging flows can accelerate, potentially triggering an upside squeeze — with an initial upside extension capped near 520 .
If momentum continues to build above 500, the next substantial call resistance sits at 520 , currently the second-largest call wall on the chain.
As long as price remains above HVL and the 475 support zone holds, the risk-reward skew favors continuation to the upside, with 480 as the trigger level and 500 as the speculative call-positioning target .
However — critical risk scenario:
If 475 breaks and we do not see a fast rebound from the 470/460 negative squeeze zone , this could initiate a sharp downward move and a trend shift. Currently, the largest protective put concentration sits at 475 — and the put side only begins to melt if price can reclaim 480 .
At least based on the aggregated options chain, MSFT is now under immense compression with clear trigger points .
MSFT tightening under GEX squeeze pressure
$IWM — The Rate-Cut Leverage PlayLast week delivered one of those classic market paradoxes where everything that should be bearish suddenly became bullish:
layoffs → bullish
weak labor data → bullish
flat inflation → bullish
Why?
Because the market has now fully locked its focus on one thing only:
a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Volatility was sharp, price action even sharper, and the headlines kept flipping faster than most traders could adjust.
Let’s break down what actually happened — and what matters for the week ahead.
IWM GEX for 01/16/2025 expiration using TanukiTrade Options Overlay GRID System and the GEX Profile indicator
If the Fed cuts, small caps win the most — and last week proved it again.
IWM broke above the 250 call gamma level
Short-term gamma squeeze potential
Closed at new all-time highs
This is where rate-cut optimism expresses itself with maximum torque.
If the Fed turns dove on Wednesday → IWM can easily extend.
What is Gamma?🔎 What is Gamma?
Gamma Exposure (GEX) measures how much and how fast an option’s Delta changes as the underlying moves.
Why does this matter? Because when options shift, market makers must hedge, and their hedging can move markets.
Gamma = the “acceleration” of Delta.
Large gamma zones = areas where market makers must hedge aggressively.
These hedges often create temporary support or resistance levels.
Think of Gamma as the invisible hand shaping intraday price action.
⚡ Why is Gamma Important?
Market makers aren’t directional traders — they aim to stay delta-neutral. But depending on whether they’re in a positive or negative gamma environment, their hedges can either calm the market or fuel volatility.
✅ Positive Gamma
Dealers are net long calls.
Price Drop: They buy underlying to hedge → creates support.
Price Rise: They sell underlying to hedge → creates resistance.
Result: Market stays stable, moves are dampened.
❌ Negative Gamma
Dealers are net short puts.
Price Drop: They sell underlying to hedge → adds downward pressure.
Price Rise: They buy underlying to hedge → adds upward pressure.
Result: Market becomes unstable, moves are amplified (higher volatility, risk of squeezes).
📍 Key Gamma Levels to Watch
Zero Gamma:
Pivot point where hedging flows are balanced. Price often consolidates or pivots here.
Major Positive Gamma Zones:
Act as resistance (dealers sell into strength).
Major Negative Gamma Zones:
Act as support (dealers sell into weakness, but may cause bounces).
Convexity Doesn’t Care: Pinned, Suppressed, Released.This is antifragile flow in action.
Fri: DRB signal fires, but spot runs headfirst into a gamma wall. Dealers long gamma = suppression, absorption, fakeout.
Mon: OPEX clears. Pin decays. Market resets. Neutral, no follow-through yet.
Tue: Vomma/Vanna flows finally kick. No pin left to absorb → convex release to target.
The point? Breakouts aren’t wrong, they’re delayed.
Gamma pins are temporary. Vol releases are structural.
Learn to wait for expiry, not fight it.
Jade Lizard on PLTR - My 53DTE Summer Theta PlayMany of you — and yes, I see you in my DMs 😄 — are trading PLTR, whether using LEAPS, wheeling, or covered calls.
I took a closer look. And guess what?
📈 After a strong move higher, PLTR was rejected right at the $143 call wall — pretty much all cumulative expiries cluster resistance there
Using the GEX Profile indicator, scanning all expirations:
After a brief dip, the market is repositioning bullish
Squeeze zone extends up to 150
The most distant GEX level is sitting at 160
On the downside, 130 is firm support, with some presence even at 120 — the market isn’t pricing in much risk below that
📉 From a technical standpoint:
We’re near all-time highs
125 (previous ATH) and 100 are key support levels
The OTM delta curve through August is wide, and the call side is paying well — with a current call pricing skew
🔬 IVx is at 57, trending lower + call pricing skew📉 IV Rank isn't particularly high, but the directional IVx matters more here
💡 Summer Theta Play: Jade Lizard on PLTR
Since I’ll be traveling this summer and don’t want to micromanage trades, I looked for something low-touch and high-confidence — and revisited an old favorite: the Jade Lizard.
If you're not familiar with the strategy, I recommend checking out Tastytrade's links and videos on Jade Lizards.
🔹 Why this setup?
Breakeven sits near $100, even with no management
On TastyTrade margin:~$1800 initial margin ~$830 max profit
53 DTE — plenty of time for theta to work
Earnings hit in August — I plan to close before then
Covers all bullish GEX resistance zones
Quickly turns profitable if IV doesn’t spike
Highly adjustable if needed
My conclusion: this strategy covers a much broader range than what the current GEX Profile shows across all expirations — so by my standards, I consider this to be a relatively lower-risk setup compared to most other symbols right now with similar theta strategies.
🔧 How would I adjust if needed?
If price moves up:
I’d roll the short put up to collect additional credit
Hold the call vertical as long as the curve supports it
If price drops:
Transition into a put ratio spread
Either extend or remove the call vertical depending on conditions
🛑 What’s the cut loss plan?
I have about 20% wiggle room on the upside, so I’m not too worried — but if price rips through 160 quickly, I’ll have to consider early closure.
If that happens, the decision depends on time:
If late in the cycle with low DTE:→ Take a small loss & roll out to next month for credit
If early with lots of DTE remaining:→ Consider converting to a butterfly, pushing out the call vertical for a small debit→ Offset this with credit from rolling the put upward
As always — stay sharp, manage your risk, and may the profit be with you.
See you next week!– Greg @ TanukiTrade
06/30 Weekly Gamma Exposure Outlook🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup
The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force.
📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration.
We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory.
🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher.
🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225 , with major call resistance near 6200 .
🔍 What Just Happened?
📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout.
💥 Put skew collapsed , suggesting downside hedges are being unwound.
📉 VIX and IV keep dropping , confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment .
🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode .
✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical
We're in a bullish gamma regime , so dips are likely to be bought.
Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060 .
🛠️ Strategy Ideas:
• Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs
• Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+
• Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225
⚠️ Risks to Watch
We’re overextended short-term.
🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050 .
Bearish signals to monitor:
• IV spike or renewed put buying
• Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation
• Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms
🗓️ Short Trading Week Note
🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day.
This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect:
📌 Early week dealer hedging
📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday
💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place
💼 Setup:
• Put Butterfly below spot
• 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide)
• Slight net negative delta , 11 DTE
🎯 Why it works:
• Leverages IV backwardation
• Profits from time decay
• Favors a stable or modestly bullish week
• Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14)
💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk.
Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨
📌 Final Thoughts:
The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant ,
but big moves often retest before continuing.
Let price breathe.
Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄
[06/16] Weekly GEX Roadmap - Diagonal Spreads or Put Hedges?📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX)
This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week:
Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100
But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020
Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting…
⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails?
In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory:
Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves
Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops
Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead
Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates
Result:
GEX zones lose clarity.
Pinning breaks down.
Reactions become nonlinear and emotional.
If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile.
💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution
If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150:
Limited downside
Defined risk
Covers the full squeeze zone
But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier.
🧨 Macro + Geo Risks
Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike
Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently
Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies
🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection?
If you expect weakness on SPX weekly:
Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits.
This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week.
If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well.
Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope,
– Greg @ TanukiTrade
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea.
🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook
It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April.
With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind.
The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds.
GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week.
As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985.
🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone.
🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones:
6050 (Delta ≈ 33)
6075 (Delta ≈ 25)
6100 (Delta ≈ 17)
🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet.
🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario:
5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38).
If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone.
📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading.
📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion
Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.
[GEX] TSLA Breakdown & Options Trade Idea for 39DTELast week, TSLA dropped hard, likely due to political tensions. Let’s not forget — just a month ago, their EVs were showcased at the White House entrance...
In the span of 30 hours, TSLA fell -22% (see red line below), while SPX barely reacted. Why? Because both realized and implied volatility dropped — remember VIX is around 17/18.
This sharp TSLA drop already seemed overdone, which helped fuel the +5% bounce on Friday.Most TSLA options positions are near-term and still show negative sentiment — but further expirations grow increasingly bullish.
🔍 If you use options GEX matrix , you’ll see the bearish hedging flow gradually turns more neutral-to-bullish.
Most cumulative support/resistance zones lie between 250–340, with spot currently just under the chop zone.
🧠 TSLA Trade Idea
It’s been a while since I posted a neutral Iron Condor, but TSLA might be an exception.
Despite last week’s IV spike, call pricing skew still dominates across expirations — as seen in our Options Overlay indicator.This tells me the market doesn’t fear TSLA crashing below 200. So, I’m aiming to capture premium on the July 18th expiry without day trading.
I’m thinking of something simple, well-manageable in either direction.To refine leg placement, I use visual GEX zones.
🐻🔴 Downside:
Strong put support at 250
Gradual support layers up to 280
🐂 🟢 Upside:
Target area: 340–350 for the July 18 expiry.
📅 Closing the Trade:I'll consider closing or adjusting at 21 DTE or when 50% max profit is hit — per TastyTrade’s studies.
🔁 Rolling Plan:IF short delta on one side drops below ~14 and price pulls away, I’ll roll the untested side to collect more credit.
🧑🏫 I’ll likely post trade management live in Discord for educational purposes.
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🦋 Bonus Idea: TSLA Broken Wing Butterfly
If you think TSLA has more downside, a Put Broken Wing Butterfly — like the one shown in my previous YT video — is also a great way to structure this trade using the same GEX levels.
There’s no single way to use Gamma Exposure — it’s the most actionable hedging signal we have. Combine it with your knowledge of strategies and you can trade almost any scenario.
One thing’s for sure — this market moves faster than ever.A single day of internal conflict wiped -22% off TSLA…The next morning, the market already moved on, so as always:
Trade Safe Out There!
06/02 Weekly GEX Analysis - 6000 Looks EasyThe biggest event last week was undoubtedly the court ruling involving Trump. The market responded with optimism, and on Thursday premarket, SPX surged toward the 6000 level — only to get instantly rejected. That strong rejection suggests this is a firm resistance zone.
From the GEX expiry matrix, it's clear that the market is hedging upward for this week, but downward for next week. To me, this indicates that while the near-term GEX sentiment remains slightly bullish, the market may be preparing for a pullback or retest in the medium term.
This week, SPX has already entered a GEX zone surrounded by positive strikes — up to around the 6000 level. That makes 6000 an “easy target” for bulls, and we’ll likely see profit-taking here, just like we did last Thursday premarket.
⚠️ However, if we look more closely at the weekly net open interest:
...we can see a strong bullish net OI build-up starting to emerge around the 6100 level — a price zone that currently feels distant and even unreachable. But if the 6000 resistance breaks, we could see a fast gamma-driven squeeze up to 6050 and possibly 6100 before the next wave of profit-taking kicks in.
As is often the case during bullish moves, the market seems blind to the bigger picture — no one’s looking down, only up. The mood is greedy, and momentum favors the bulls... for now.
Never underestimate FOMO — but also never underestimate Trump. He’s unlikely to accept the court’s decision on tariffs quietly. Any new negative headline could shake the market, no matter where price is sitting…
[05/27] Weekly GEX Outlook for SPX⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look
I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market:
📍 Massive upside expectation:
It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000.
🛑 Limited downside protection:
Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching.
🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930
The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot.
Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower.
Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail.
🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail
This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision.
In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this.
🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout
If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone.
From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈.
The details show the same picture when examining more details:
SPX conclusion
😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point.
Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional.
Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!






















