BTCUSD: Why Gann May be showing us the BEAR market is over!!!It is time for the BEARS to accept defeat. $5818.14 on Bitstamp on June 29th, 2018 was not newsworthy (relatively speaking) just like Jan 14th, 2015 wasn't, except we may be looking at dates where bitcoin decided it had enough of the downtrend (we know in 2015 this is a fact).
We've been rolling Gann Fan channel after Gann Fan channel since December 2017 but it seems we've reached a slow grind since we've reached and used the 4/1 Gann line as support on August 14th, 2018. It took BTC 203 DAYS to move between the 4/1 and 8/1 lines (the red shaded channel). So far it has been 24 DAYS (as of the writing of this analysis) since we started moving across the same threshold. How long will it take us in 2018? Maybe the lagging indicators (50 EMA , 100 EMA and 200 EMA can give us a more expedient outlook.
The 50 EMA has not been able to roll above the 100 EMA since March 2018 on the Daily (an almost similar pattern was seen in the 2014-15 BEAR Market). If history is any indication and price does manage to push high enough, say above $8500, we should have a cross above the 100 and that momentum is going to help us push above the 200 EMA and yes that means a Golden Cross (if that means anything to you). But these will be re-tested (a dip again below them) and then another conclusive push above them. We can then say the BEAR Market is officially over. If we keep moving sideways as these EMA roll above and below price we're looking at early October when we pierce the 8/1 Gann line and just like in 2014-2015 Bear market that means we move above this dreaded downtrend.
What invalidates this analysis? Another Gann fan using the lowest price of the year as the reversal point shows the 4/1 to 8/1 Gann Fan channel being respected. WE CLOSE BELOW the 8/1 Gann line; this whole analysis is invalidated. So far, we've held support on the 8/1 Gann line. In 2014-15 the 4/1 Gann Line provided support.
Convergence of GANN FAN Lines. The 2/1 Gann Line from the bottom of the 2014-2015 BEAR Market converges with the 8/1 line drawn from 2018's lowest price, on September 20th, 2018 (we may come back and re-test this line: red circle on the chart). That 1/2 line from the previous Bear Market bottom has provided support and resistance through 2015, 2016 and 2017. It supported our parabolic move up by providing the last leg of support on July 16th, 2017 and we have not touched it since then. This could be yet another confirmation, we are not going any lower. Alternatively, it could be confirmation we're headed much lower. This is a pivotal point.
DISCLAIMER: These are just ideas, not advice. Entering a trade now poses huge rewards if this analysis is correct and low risk given we're very close to the 2018 bottom (if you’re a swing trader or investor). Good luck out there and PLEASE your feedback is greatly appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
