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GBPUSD - Ascending Channel at $1.35 Executive Summary FX:GBPUSD is trading at $1.3498 on December 28, 2025, consolidating near 3-month highs within a well-defined ascending channel on the 2H timeframe. The British Pound is having its best year since 2017 (+8% YTD) while the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 2003 (-9.9% YTD). Price is testing critical resistance at $1.3520-1.3560 after breaking above $1.35 for the first time in three months. The Bank of England's cautious stance on rate cuts versus the Fed's expected easing creates a favorable backdrop for sterling, but thin holiday volumes and overbought conditions warrant caution. BIAS: NEUTRAL - Watching for Breakout at Resistance The trend is clearly bullish with +8% YTD. The ascending channel is intact. However, price is testing critical resistance near multi-month highs. Wait for breakout confirmation or pullback to support before entering. Current Market Context - December 28, 2025 GBP/USD is in a strong uptrend: Current Price: $1.3498 (-0.04% on the day) Day's Range: $1.3477 - $1.3527 52-Week Range: $1.2099 - $1.3789 52-Week High: $1.3789 (approaching) Technical Rating: BUY Performance Metrics - ALL GREEN (except 6M): 1 Week: Positive 1 Month: +2% 3 Months: Positive 6 Months: -1.49% YTD: +7.88% 1 Year: +7.57% Sterling is having its best year against the Dollar since 2017. The pound broke above $1.35 for the first time in three months. THE BULL CASE - Dollar Weakness Driving Sterling Higher 1. Dollar's Worst Year Since 2003 The US Dollar has been under severe pressure: Dollar Index (DXY) on track to lose 9.9% for the year Steepest annual drop since 2003 Whipsawed by tariff chaos and Fed independence concerns "The USD risk premium widened in December" - HSBC "USD weakness may reflect growing concerns around Fed independence" - HSBC 2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fed funds futures pricing in 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 First cut expected as early as March/April Goldman Sachs expects "two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25%" Fed balancing weakening labor market against inflation concerns Lower rates = weaker Dollar = stronger Sterling 3. Bank of England Cautious on Cuts BoE cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% in December Narrow 5-4 vote reflecting ongoing inflation concerns Governor Bailey: rates will trend lower "but not as quickly as markets might hope" UK inflation at 3.2% - still above BoE's 2% target Hawkish BoE vs Dovish Fed = Sterling strength 4. Improving UK Economic Sentiment "Sterling-wise looks to be some improving sentiment towards the outlook" - Neil Wilson, Saxo Markets Revised GDP figures showed substantial upward revision to business investment UK GDP grew 0.1% in Q3, in line with expectations Budget delivered extra fiscal headroom, triggering relief rally Positioning was negative going into Budget - relief rally since 5. Sterling's Best Year Since 2017 GBP/USD up over 8% YTD Best annual performance since 2017 Broke above $1.35 for first time in 3 months Up over 2% in December alone Outperforming most G10 currencies THE BEAR CASE - Short-Term Caution 1. Near Multi-Month Highs Price at 3-month highs Testing critical resistance zone $1.3520-1.3560 Natural resistance after strong rally Profit-taking risk elevated 52-week high at $1.3789 still ~300 pips away 2. Thin Holiday Volumes Year-end trading conditions Many market participants off Thin liquidity can cause erratic moves "Thin turn of year markets provide opportunity" for sharp reversals Reduced participation until January 3. Overbought Conditions +8% YTD rally +2% in December alone Extended from moving averages Mean reversion possible Consolidation healthy after strong move 4. UK Fiscal Concerns Budget watchdog to publish forecasts on March 3 Any negative assessment could pressure sterling Fiscal headroom remains tight BoE forecasts flat growth in Q4 5. Potential Dollar Bounce Dollar oversold after -9.9% YTD decline Risk-off events could boost Dollar safe-haven appeal Fed could turn hawkish if inflation persists Yen intervention could trigger broader FX volatility Expert Analysis MUFG Strategists: "The drop for the dollar this year is unlikely to be a one-off with scope for further gains ahead." HSBC Analysts: "The USD risk premium widened in December which suggests USD weakness may reflect growing concerns around Fed independence, not just the monetary policy outlook." "With many other G10 central banks on hold, we think Fed liquidity operations and a slight dovish Fed bias leaves the USD outlook tilted to the downside." Neil Wilson, Saxo Markets: "Sterling-wise looks to be some improving sentiment towards the outlook for the economy even if it looks a bit miserable in the trenches right now." "Positioning was kind of negative going into the Budget so as that delivered extra fiscal headroom we have seen some relief rally since." Goldman Sachs (David Mericle): "We expect the FOMC to compromise on two more 25bp cuts to 3-3.25% but see the risks as tilted lower." Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 2 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a textbook bullish structure: Ascending Channel Characteristics: Clear ascending channel established Lower trendline: Rising support (yellow dashed) Upper trendline: Rising resistance (yellow dashed) Higher highs and higher lows throughout Price respecting channel boundaries well Currently trading near upper channel boundary Key Zones Identified (Purple Shaded): Upper resistance zone: $1.3520-$1.3560 Lower support zone: $1.3220-$1.3280 Major resistance lines: Red horizontals at key levels Channel width: ~300 pips Current Position: Price at $1.3498 - testing upper resistance zone Consolidating after push to 3-month highs 52-week high at $1.3789 within reach Technical rating: BUY Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $1.3527 - Day's high / immediate resistance $1.3520 - Resistance zone lower boundary $1.3535 - Recent 3-month high $1.3560 - Resistance zone upper boundary $1.3600 - Psychological resistance $1.3650 - Secondary resistance $1.3700 - Psychological level $1.3789 - 52-WEEK HIGH (major target) Support Levels: $1.3477 - Day's low / immediate support $1.3450 - Secondary support $1.3400 - Psychological support $1.3350 - Tertiary support $1.3320 - Support zone upper boundary $1.3280 - Support zone lower boundary $1.3220 - CHANNEL FLOOR (major support) $1.2099 - 52-Week low Channel Analysis Channel established from October lows Strong upward slope - bullish momentum Price respecting both boundaries Channel width: approximately 300 pips Upper boundary: ~$1.3520-$1.3560 Lower boundary: ~$1.3220-$1.3280 Breakout above channel would accelerate rally Moving Average Analysis Price trading above all major moving averages MAs sloping upward - bullish alignment Short-term MAs above long-term MAs MAs providing dynamic support on pullbacks Trend structure bullish on all timeframes SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout to 52-Week High (60% Probability) Trigger Conditions: 2H close above $1.3560 resistance zone Volume confirmation on breakout Dollar Index breaks below 97.50 Fed signals more rate cuts Risk-on sentiment continues Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $1.3600 - Psychological level Target 2: $1.3650 - Secondary resistance Target 3: $1.3700 - Psychological level Target 4: $1.3789 - 52-week high Extended: $1.3850+ (new highs) Bullish Catalysts: +8% YTD momentum Ascending channel intact Fed rate cut expectations (2-3 cuts in 2026) Dollar's worst year since 2003 BoE cautious on cuts vs Fed dovish Sterling at 3-month highs Best year since 2017 BEARISH SCENARIO - Pullback to Channel Support (40% Probability) Trigger Conditions: Rejection at $1.3520-$1.3560 resistance Break below $1.3400 support Dollar bounce on strong US data Risk-off sentiment BoE turns more dovish Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $1.3400 - Psychological support Target 2: $1.3320 - Support zone upper boundary Target 3: $1.3280 - Support zone lower boundary Target 4: $1.3220 - Channel floor Bearish Risks: Near 3-month highs - natural resistance Thin holiday volumes Overbought after +8% YTD Profit-taking risk elevated Potential Dollar bounce UK fiscal concerns (March 3 forecasts) NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Consolidation in Range Most likely short-term outcome: Price consolidates between $1.3400-$1.3560 Thin holiday trading Wait for January for directional clarity Healthy consolidation before next leg Channel support provides floor MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Bullish Bias The weight of evidence favors bulls, but caution warranted at resistance: Bullish Factors (Dominant): +8% YTD - Best year since 2017 Ascending channel intact Dollar's worst year since 2003 (-9.9%) Fed rate cuts expected (2-3 in 2026) BoE cautious vs Fed dovish 52-week high within reach Technical rating: BUY Higher highs and higher lows Bearish Factors (Minor): Near 3-month high resistance Thin holiday volumes Overbought short-term Profit-taking risk My Stance: NEUTRAL - Wait for Confirmation The trend is clearly bullish with +8% YTD. The ascending channel is intact. Fed rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Dollar. However, price is testing critical resistance after a strong rally. Wait for breakout confirmation or pullback to support. Strategy: Wait for breakout above $1.3560 OR Buy dips to $1.3280-$1.3320 support zone Target $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3789 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Don't chase at current levels Respect the ascending channel Trade Framework Scenario 1: Breakout Trade Above $1.3560 Entry Conditions: 2H close above $1.3560 Volume confirmation Dollar Index weakness Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3565-$1.3580 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $1.3480 below recent support Target 1: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.3700 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.4) Target 3: $1.3789 (52-week high, Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Support Zone Entry Conditions: Price pulls back to $1.3280-$1.3320 zone Bullish rejection candle Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3280-$1.3320 at support zone Stop Loss: $1.3200 below channel floor Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $1.3520 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Target 3: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:4) Scenario 3: Channel Bottom Buy Entry Conditions: Price tests $1.3220 channel floor Strong bounce with volume Channel support holds Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3220-$1.3250 at channel bottom Stop Loss: $1.3180 below channel Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:3) Target 2: $1.3520 (Risk-Reward ~1:5) Target 3: $1.3650 (Risk-Reward ~1:8) Scenario 4: Rejection Short (Counter-Trend) Entry Conditions: Clear rejection at $1.3520-$1.3560 Bearish engulfing or pin bar Dollar strength returns Trade Parameters: Entry: $1.3520-$1.3540 on rejection Stop Loss: $1.3590 above resistance Target 1: $1.3400 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.4) Target 2: $1.3320 (Risk-Reward ~1:4) Note: Counter-trend - smaller position size Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade Respect the ascending channel Buy dips, don't chase highs Thin holiday volumes = wider stops Scale out at targets Move stop to breakeven after first target Watch Dollar Index for confirmation Monitor BoE and Fed commentary Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $1.3220 (channel floor) Ascending channel breaks down Dollar Index surges above 100 BoE signals aggressive rate cuts Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $1.3789 (new 52-week high) Channel breaks to upside Dollar Index breaks below 96 Fed signals aggressive rate cuts Conclusion FX:GBPUSD is in a strong bullish trend, trading at $1.3498 within a well-defined ascending channel. Sterling has gained +8% YTD (best since 2017) as the Dollar weakens (-9.9% YTD, worst since 2003). The 52-week high at $1.3789 is within reach. The Numbers: Current Price: $1.3498 YTD Performance: +7.88% 1-Year Performance: +7.57% 52-Week High: $1.3789 52-Week Low: $1.2099 Dollar YTD: -9.9% (worst since 2003) Key Levels: $1.3789 - 52-WEEK HIGH (bullish target) $1.3520-$1.3560 - Upper resistance zone $1.3498 - Current price $1.3400 - Psychological support $1.3280-$1.3320 - Lower support zone $1.3220 - Channel floor The Setup: Ascending channel intact. Fed rate cuts pressuring Dollar. BoE cautious on cuts. Sterling outperforming. All signs point higher, but respect resistance. Strategy: NEUTRAL stance - wait for confirmation Buy breakout above $1.3560 Buy dips to $1.3280-$1.3320 support zone Target $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3789 (52-week high) Stops below channel support Respect the trend The trend is your friend. Don't fight Sterling's momentum, but don't chase at resistance.
by officialjackofalltrades
GBPCHF: Even if it breaks the low, we should get a move up. FX:GBPCHF is at a reaction level. Even if it breaks the low we are expecting it to push up. Always remember WTW 4 Golder Rules: 1) Do not jump in 2) Do not over risk/trade 3) Do not trade without Stop Loss 4) Never ever add to a losing position! Trade with care We Trade Waves WTW Team Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
Long
by WeTradeWAVES
GBP/JPY Mid Term after a strong fight with the JPYHi again guys, we are looking into our next fantastic opportunity which this time will be more Mid Term as development. We will check out the GBP / JPY which has been extremely bullish for an extended period of time, but as we have seen the past couple of weeks since the beginning of November until now that the price has significantly dropped down. Currently as I showcased on my technical analysis it has reached a previous Strong Resistance Line which has been tested a few times and it became a Strong Support Line , so this is why my analysis is showcasing a reversal of the downtrend into an uptrend. Current entry description - entry 191.550 Target 1 : 193.765 Target 2 : 196.015 Target 3 : 199.850 Keep in mind that we have had high volatility with the JPY pairs so you can be cautious and have your entry after the first target has been reached so you have the necessary confirmation! Happy trading!
Long
by DG55Capital
GBPUSD CHART IDEAHey Traders, Introducing BluetonaFX A warm welcome to all the traders out there using this platform. Although we are new to TradingView, BluetonaFX is a professional group of traders who have over 15 years of experience in FX trading beginning in 2008, the year that heralded the second significant paradigm shift for retail traders after 1996 when retail traders were first able to trade currency pairs on their own computers. We specialise in trading a select range of currency pairs, silver and crude oil. Our decision to move from the private space to a public platform via TradingView was in part driven by the countless stories we heard about retail traders being chopped up by the markets due to the lack of real professional guidance on how to trade and committed analysis of the markets on online platforms popular with retail traders. We will gradually introduce our ethos, trading style and methodologies over the next few weeks. Please review our 1H chart idea for GBPUSD. Price is currently ranging between two structures and failed to break out of the resistance structure which is being respected inline with the EMA6 trendline tuned for this currency pair. We are likely to see a support test below before a reaction. Please like, comment and follow to support us and rest assured we will start sharing some great ideas in the coming weeks. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
5
GBP/CHF - could move very quickly down after 1.1690!GBP/CHF price action broke out of an ascending daily trend channel on the 8th September. This triggered a bearish impulse taking price right the way back down to the 1.1690 level. Last week we saw price 'take a breather' and retrace back up to 1.1825 and then react from a 4H descending trend line, which is now forcing price lower. If we get another break of 1.1690 AND a definite close beneath it, we can only see price continuing down to the lows from March sitting at 1.1250. There is extremely little in the way of support that could act as a potential barrier for this move which may mean that it happens relatively quickly. Keep an eye on this pair! If price continues to close above 1.1690 this analysis would become invalid.
Short
by TheForexFellows