Trump eases tariffs, precious metals reverse course after surge.I view the current OANDA:XAUUSD chart as a familiar market story: after a strong rally, price pauses, consolidates, and shakes out weak hands before continuing higher within a well-defined ascending channel. The primary momentum has not been broken.
• First, the trend structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows. Price is moving within an upward price channel, and each corrective move has been contained near the lower boundary of the channel or key moving averages.
• Second, former Fibonacci resistance levels have turned into support. The 0.5–0.382 zone has acted as a “base,” where buying interest consistently emerges whenever the market experiences volatility. This is a classic signal of a healthy uptrend: price does not need deep corrections to attract new capital.
• Third, momentum has not been disrupted. RSI remains above the neutral zone and is showing signs of holding a base rather than forming a clear bearish divergence. This suggests that while profit-taking pressure exists, it is not strong enough to reverse the prevailing trend.
From a macro perspective, gold continues to be “backed” by the narrative of low real interest rates, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, and growing doubts about the stability of the global financial order. Defensive capital has not exited the precious metals market; it has merely paused to reassess.
In terms of technical targets, if price continues to hold current support and resumes its upward move, the next objective lies in the 4,680–4,750 USD zone, aligned with the upper boundary of the price channel and Fibonacci extensions. This is an area where the market is likely to test supply.
Key risk to monitor: if a clear breakdown occurs below the 0.382–0.5 support zone with a decisive close beneath the ascending channel, a deeper correction toward the 4,430–4,380 USD area would be activated. However, under current conditions, this would still represent a correction within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
In summary, within the current gold market narrative, pullbacks are not signals to exit, but rather necessary pauses that allow new capital to enter. As long as macro uncertainty persists and the technical structure remains intact, the dominant trend continues to point higher.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4652 - 4650⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4656
→Take Profit 1 4644
↨
→Take Profit 2 4638
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4558 - 4560⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4554
→Take Profit 1 4566↨
→Take Profit 2 4572
Gc1
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/15/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Slight recovery after a corrective move, but no strong bullish trend has formed yet. Pressure on gold is only short-term.
• U.S. Equities: Sideways and choppy; capital has not strongly rotated back into risk assets → gold continues to play a defensive role.
• FED: The market continues to expect easing in upcoming meetings; no clear hawkish signals yet.
• TRUMP: U.S. political factors still carry potential volatility; not strong enough to form a new trend but supportive for holding gold.
• Gold ETFs (SPDR): ETF flows remain stable with no strong outflows → medium-term gold trend is still supported.
b) Politics:
• Global geopolitical tensions have not fully eased → gold maintains a high price base.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off: Investors remain cautious, no FOMO at high prices → preference to BUY on pullbacks.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Overall trend: Medium-term uptrend – short-term correction.
• Price has tested the upper trendline resistance (ATH zone) multiple times and shown selling reactions.
• Currently, price is pulling back toward the dynamic MA support + the 4,600 price zone.
• RSI cooling down from high levels → healthy correction, no sign of trend breakdown.
• Structure remains Higher High – Higher Low as long as the 4,590–4,600 zone holds.
RESISTANCE: 4,618 – 4,630 – 4,640 – 4,680
SUPPORT: 4,600 – 4,577 – 4,550
3. Previous Session (14/01/26):
• Gold slightly broke above the previous high → short-term profit-taking appeared. The trendline remains strong.
• Average trading range, shaking out late BUY chase orders.
• Selling pressure was strong but did not break the bullish structure; mainly a technical correction.
4. Strategy for Today (15/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,652 – 4,650
• SL: 4,656
• TP1: 4,644
• TP2: 4,638
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,558 – 4,560
• SL: 4,554
• TP1: 4,566
• TP2: 4,572
Gold Update 15JAN2026: Bearish DivergenceThe price follows the projected path very accurately
It reached the target zone and updated the all-time high at $4,651
At the same time, RSI has formed a bearish divergence, as anticipated earlier for Wave 5
Price is making a higher high while RSI prints a lower peak on the sub-chart
This signals weakening momentum and suggests a reversal may be close
Price may still produce one final spike toward the upper boundary of the bullish trend before fading
$4,250 remains the key support level to watch
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/14/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economic:
• USD: After CPI, the USD staged a technical rebound but failed to sustain strong momentum, indicating that buying pressure remains weak.
• US Equities: Mixed performance; capital has not strongly rotated back into risk assets → gold continues to hold its defensive role.
• FED: Rate-cut expectations remain intact in the medium–long term. The Fed has not delivered a sufficiently hawkish stance to reverse gold’s trend.
• TRUMP: Statements and potential policies continue to create policy uncertainty, which is supportive for gold.
• SPDR: Added 3.43 tons, supporting the bullish trend.
b) Geopolitics:
• Geopolitical tensions have not fully cooled down; latent risks remain → gold maintains its safe-haven position.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off environment: capital has not exited gold.
• After the early-month correction, sentiment has shifted to selective buying rather than FOMO.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Price has broken out of the accumulation box after successfully testing the bottom.
• A Higher Low structure has formed → short-term trend has turned bullish.
• Price is trading above the MA, with the MA starting to slope upward.
• RSI is moving toward the 70 zone, indicating strong buying momentum.
=> Short-term trend: BULLISH – prioritize BUY on pullbacks.
RESISTANCE: 4.618 – 4.630 – 4.683
SUPPORT: 4.600 – 4.577 – 4.550
3. Previous Session (13/01/26):
• Early session: Gold was pressured lower, shaking out weak BUY positions.
• Mid-session: Price moved sideways, accumulating and absorbing supply.
• Late session: Strong breakout above the box, closing at highs → confirmation of capital inflow.
=> This was a post-accumulation breakout, supported by fundamentals, not a random spike.
4. Today’s Strategy (14/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,686 – 4,684
• SL: 4,690
• TP1: 4,678
• TP2: 4,672
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,558 – 4,560
• SL: 4,554
• TP1: 4,566
• TP2: 4,572
GOLD trading alert! Today's US CPI could be a turning pointThe OANDA:XAUUSD market is entering a very different state compared to the accumulation phase at the end of the year. After the breakout to the $4,600/ounce region, the technical structure shows that the main uptrend remains intact and a new uptrend cycle has met the conditions to form.
On the daily chart, the price continues to move within an ascending channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous one. More importantly, the Fibonacci levels that were resistance in the previous phase have now been absorbed by the price and transformed into dynamic support zones.
Specifically:
• The 0.5 zone around 4.42x–4.45x has been successfully retested.
• The 0.382 zone around 4.29x–4.30x acts as a deeper support buffer for the trend structure.
The fact that prices have remained stable above these levels indicates that buying pressure is not just short-term speculation but has shifted to a trend-following holding position.
In terms of targets, with the medium-term Fibonacci levels having been conquered, the next technical target lies at the 0.786 region around 4.72x–4.73x USD, corresponding to the upper boundary of the price channel. If momentum is maintained, the 4.95x–5.00x region will be the next extended target of the cycle.
However, the risk doesn't lie in an immediate trend reversal, but rather in a technical correction after reaching the target. When the price approaches 4.72x–4.75x, the market may experience:
• Profit-taking along the wave.
• Narrowing of the range and a return to test the support zone at 4.45x or even deeper at 4.30x to "clean up" positions before establishing the next upward move.
In other words, the big picture is still bullish, but the short-term path will not be straight.
Gold is no longer in a "breakout test" phase. Technically, the market has entered a new, clearly structured uptrend, with old resistance levels becoming price bases. The target ahead has been identified, but a correction after reaching that target is something to prepare for, rather than being caught off guard when it occurs.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4652 - 4650⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4656
→Take Profit 1 4644
↨
→Take Profit 2 4638
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4527 - 4529⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4523
→Take Profit 1 4535
↨
→Take Profit 2 4541
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/13/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Ahead of U.S. CPI, the USD is moving in a choppy range, with potential for a short-term spike on news release → creating technical pullback pressure on gold during the session.
• U.S. Equities: Cautious sentiment, capital is not yet willing to take strong risks before CPI → no clear capital rotation away from gold.
• FED: CPI is a key dataset for the FED in assessing the interest rate path. If CPI does not cool as expected → market reactions may be volatile, but the medium-term gold trend remains intact.
• TRUMP: No new statements strong enough to directly impact the market; this factor is currently neutral.
• Gold ETF: SPDR added more than 6 tons → confirming large capital accumulation, supporting a BUY-on-dips bias rather than distribution.
b) Geopolitics:
• No new escalations, but global geopolitical risks remain latent → gold maintains its baseline safe-haven role.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-off ahead of CPI → defensive positioning, prone to sideways movement and stop-hunting during news sessions. Profit-taking may appear and, if widespread, could trigger a sharp drop.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Primary Trend: Bullish (Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact).
• Price is correcting after ATH, trading below short-term MAs, retesting the equilibrium zone.
• RSI (M15–M30): Recovering from lower levels → selling pressure is weakening, but not yet strong enough to confirm a bullish reversal.
• Current structure aligns with:
• Sideway consolidation
• Or one more shakeout toward deeper support before rebounding.
RESISTANCE: 4,600 – 4,630 – 4,683
SUPPORT: 4,577 – 4,550 – 4,533
3. Previous Session (12/01/26):
• Gold surged strongly despite a USD rebound → indicating weak selling pressure.
• Large money did not distribute; this was merely a technical correction after an extended rally.
• Price behavior suggests: patience remains the advantage.
4. Today’s Strategy (13/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,643 – 4,639
• SL: 4,648
• TP1: 4,630
• TP2: 4,621
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,540 – 4,544
• SL: 4,536
• TP1: 4,552
• TP2: 4,560
GOLD: Missiles Flying? Protests In Iran? Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Jan. 12 - 16th.
Gold is seeing inflows lately due to tensions in the market. The US and Venezuela, missiles to Syria, and protests in Iran... have caused investors to look toward this safe haven.
I expect a gap open for the second week in a row, and further gains this week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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XAUUSD hit ATH but it is headed towards a rejection.Gold (XAUUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today amidst new geopolitical unrest. That is technically a Higher High on nearly a 3-month Channel Up.
Being currently on its latest Bullish Leg, two of the three that this pattern had in total, rose by around +9.20%. As a result, this rally doesn't have that much room left in it (4665), and based on the Channel Up, we should see the new Bearish Leg emerging soon.
The Bearish Legs for those two Bullish Legs that grew by +9.20%, both marginally broke the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming just below their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels.
As a result, we expect the Channel Up to pull-back next to 4425.
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GOLD surges! Iran, the Fed, and the wavering US policy.OANDA:XAUUSD experienced a breakout in the Asian session, not as a momentary market reaction, but as a confluence of three risk factors: escalating geopolitical tensions, dovish monetary policy, and instability in central US institutions.
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, setting a new all-time high of $4,599.80 per ounce in a single session. This $90 daily increase wasn't driven by purely speculative capital flows, but rather reflected a widespread defensive sentiment.
I believe that gold's new high isn't a moment of euphoria, but rather a message. It suggests that investors are reassessing the global risk landscape: from the unstable Middle East and sanctioned Latin America to internal policy and legal dynamics in Washington. Bloomberg has described gold's past year as a series of record-breaking events as interest rates fell, geopolitical tensions escalated, and confidence in the dollar weakened simultaneously. Notably, many fund managers are not rushing to take profits, as they see gold not just as a trade, but as a long-term hedge.
In that picture, the surge to nearly $4,600/ounce wasn't the end point. It signaled that the market was entering a phase where political, legal, and monetary risks were no longer on the periphery, but had become central variables. And as centers of power simultaneously signaled instability, gold was once again chosen not for yield, but for the belief that there are times when preserving value is more important than maximizing profits.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4642 - 4640⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4646
→Take Profit 1 4634
↨
→Take Profit 2 4628
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4510 - 4512⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4506
→Take Profit 1 4518
↨
→Take Profit 2 4524
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jan 12 - Jan 16]OANDA:XAUUSD just experienced a rare surge this past week, rising nearly $180. But the real story isn't about the numbers, but about what lies ahead. Next week, US inflation, mixed economic signals, and two major geopolitical risks could create a new pivot for the market.
After a drop of over 4% in the final week of 2025, gold entered the new year in a state of "returning to normal" market conditions. The previous sell-off was mainly profit-taking amidst low liquidity during the holiday season. As money flowed back in, gold quickly recovered and closed the week with a gain of over 4%. This was not simply a technical rebound, but rather a market reaction to a combination of geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations.
The trigger came from geopolitics. Earlier in the week, news of the US military's entry into Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro triggered safe-haven demand. Gold rose more than 2.5% on Monday alone, followed by another gain on Tuesday. In a world lacking stable policy and security anchors, money flowed into gold as a natural reflex.
However, the rapid upward momentum stalled. A stronger dollar and CME Group's raising of margin requirements for gold and silver contracts dampened speculative activity. Simultaneously, positive US economic data released mid-week showed a recovery in private sector employment, with the ISM services PMI rising to 54.4 and the employment index returning to expansion territory. These figures reinforced the view that the Fed is not in a hurry to ease monetary policy, leading to a slight correction in gold prices before stabilizing again.
A parallel but equally important development is the story of silver. China announced it would impose export controls on silver, a market where it holds 60–70% of global refining capacity. Silver surged more than 10% in just two days, although it was later cooled by higher margin requirements. Silver's dominance shows that the precious metals market is reacting strongly to supply shocks, a signal that cannot be ignored for gold.
The weekend non-farm payrolls report was "neutral": new jobs were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell. The market reacted only briefly. Gold held above its high price level and closed the week at $4,509 per ounce, up more than $176 from the beginning of the week. In other words, defensive buying remained, although momentum had eased.
Next week: the focus isn't on the economic calendar, but on the risks.
The December US CPI data is crucial. The figure itself is unlikely to change the Fed's stance in January, but the margin of surprise is still enough to cause volatility. A core CPI of 0.3% or higher would rekindle concerns about "persistent inflation," support the dollar, and put short-term pressure on gold. Conversely, a level below 0.2% could weaken the greenback and pave the way for a new gold rally.
However, the deciding factor lies beyond purely economic considerations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with representatives from Denmark and Greenland, amidst President Trump's public reiteration of his intention to "acquire Greenland." This is not merely a political statement, but a strategic signal regarding the Arctic, energy, and security. If US-EU tensions escalate, the market will react with a risk-averse scenario, an environment in which gold typically benefits.
Meanwhile, instability in Iran is emerging as an unpredictable variable. Anti-government protests, tough rhetoric from Washington, and a strong reaction from Tehran are pushing the Middle East back into a sensitive state. If the situation worsens or the US becomes more deeply involved, gold will almost certainly be activated as a safe haven.
Fundamental Viewpoint
The nearly $180 surge last week wasn't a short-term "emotional burst." It reflects a new landscape where geopolitics, metal supply chains, and monetary policy expectations are intertwined. CPI may create immediate volatility, but it is the risks from Greenland, the Middle East, and the shifting geopolitical order that will determine the medium-term trend.
In a world where instability is no longer the exception but the norm, gold continues to be positioned not only as a safe-haven asset, but as a barometer of confidence in the global economic and political order.
Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD
The daily gold chart clearly shows that the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The price structure continues to be within an upward sloping channel, with each subsequent low higher than the previous one. The long-term moving average remains upward, confirming that the main trend has not been broken.
After a short correction, the price held firm in the dynamic support zone around 4,280–4,300 (coinciding with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci levels) and quickly recovered to the 4,500 region. This indicates that demand remains dominant, and the market is effectively absorbing profit-taking.
Structurally, gold has formed a high accumulation base within an uptrend. If the price remains above the 4,380–4,400 range and does not break the price channel, the market has sufficient technical conditions to enter a new uptrend cycle.
Next bullish targets:
• 4,540–4,560: short-term resistance zone, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
• 4,700–4,720: next Fibonacci extension target (0.786).
• 4,900–5,000: target zone of the medium-term uptrend channel if the trend is maintained.
Correction Risk:
In case the price loses the 4,380–4,400 range, profit-taking pressure could pull gold back to:
• 4,280–4,300: the nearest support, serving as a trend test.
• Below this level, a deeper correction to 4,130–4,160 would significantly weaken the uptrend structure and delay a new upward cycle.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral zone and no clear bearish divergence has appeared, suggesting that the upward momentum is still being maintained, although the market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range before breaking out.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4523 - 4521⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4527
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4480 - 4482⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4476
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/11/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: The USD shows a mild technical rebound after the prior decline, mainly driven by profit-taking and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of new data. However, the medium-term USD trend has not truly strengthened again.
• U.S. Stock Market: U.S. equities remain stable, with no major risk-off crash → no strong liquidation pressure on gold.
• FED: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance. Markets lean toward a scenario of keeping rates high for longer, but with no signals of further hikes → gold is not under strong pressure.
• TRUMP: Donald Trump is entering the power transition phase; markets are monitoring economic and fiscal policies under the new term, which supports gold in the medium term.
• Gold ETFs: SPDR is not showing strong net outflows; ETF flows remain stable → indicating large investors have not exited gold.
b) Politics:
• Global geopolitical tensions remain simmering and have not fully eased → gold continues to play its role as a defensive asset.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-on but cautious. Capital continues to favor holding gold, with no signs of panic or mass liquidation.
=> Fundamental Conclusion:
The medium-to-long-term trend for gold remains supported to the upside; current pullbacks are technical in nature.
2. Technical Analysis:
Main Trend: Clear uptrend
Price Action:
• Breaks above and holds key EMA levels
• Forms higher highs and higher lows
• RSI has moved above 50, may retest 50 before continuing higher
Key Areas to Watch:
• 4,500 – 4,505: Psychological zone + near-term support
• 4,480 – 4,485: Deeper support, confluence with MAs
• 4,530 – 4,550: Resistance zone / potential new ATH
=> Current structure suggests bullish accumulation, with no signs of distribution.
RESISTANCE: 4,519 – 4,533 – 4,550
SUPPORT: 4,500 – 4,480 – 4,468
3. Previous Session (09/01/26):
• Gold rose strongly, breaking above the prior resistance zone
• Experienced brief volatility and a mild pullback, but buying pressure absorbed it quickly
• No strong reversal candles or abnormal selling volume appeared
=> The previous session supports a trend continuation scenario.
4. Today’s Strategy (12/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4,550 – 4,547
• SL: 4,554
• TP1: 4,540
• TP2: 4,533
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4,477 – 4,480
• SL: 4,472
• TP1: 4,488
• TP2: 4,496
Beware of Trump's tariffs and NFP.The main uptrend remains stable. The price structure continues to form higher lows within the medium-term uptrend channel. The current correction is technical after a prolonged uptrend and has not weakened the trend structure.
In terms of price, gold is fluctuating above the confluence support zone around $4,380 – $4,280/ounce (the lower edge of the price channel and key Fibonacci levels). This is a crucial area determining the short-term trend. The fact that the price is holding above this zone indicates that fundamental buying pressure is still present, and there are no clear signs of distribution.
Above, the $4,540 – $4,580 range is acting as near-term resistance. If the price closes decisively above this area, the market will confirm a breakout from the current consolidation phase and open a new uptrend, with the next target towards $4,700 – $4,750, and further towards the $4,900 – $5,000 range along the medium-term price channel.
Conditions for a new uptrend to form:
– Price holds firm above the support zone of $4,380 – $4,280.
– A candlestick closes above the resistance zone of $4,540 – $4,580 with improved trading volume.
– Momentum (RSI) remains above the neutral level, avoiding a bearish divergence.
Downward Correction Risk:
The main risk lies in the scenario of breaking below the $4,280 level. In that case, the "higher highs - higher lows" structure would weaken, and the price could slide to deeper support zones around $4,200-$4,130, or even retest the technical lows near $4,000-$3,900. This would be a trend-rebalancing correction, not simply a short-term technical correction.
The upward trend in gold has not been broken and is currently in a consolidation phase. The 4,540-4,580 range is the "gateway" to the next upward cycle; while 4,280 is the boundary between a technical correction and trend weakening. The most appropriate strategy at present remains following the trend, buying on corrections and selling when approaching resistance, maintaining discipline with the identified risk levels.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4520 - 4518⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4524
→Take Profit 1 4512
↨
→Take Profit 2 4506
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4400 - 4402⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4396
→Take Profit 1 4408
↨
→Take Profit 2 4414
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/09/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: The USD is showing a mild recovery after the previous decline, mainly driven by technical correction and the market waiting for early-year data. There is still no strong catalyst to reverse the broader USD trend.
• U.S. Stock Market: Trading remains choppy with no clear direction. Capital flows are cautious, not strongly “risk-on.”
• FED: The FED maintains a cautious stance and has not signaled further tightening. Medium–long-term expectations still lean toward rate cuts → supportive for gold.
• TRUMP: No new policy actions with direct market impact. U.S. political factors are temporarily neutral.
b) Politics:
• Global geopolitical risks remain present. No major escalation, but sufficient to sustain defensive demand for gold.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Slight risk-off sentiment. Investors are not chasing prices (no FOMO), preferring to wait for pullbacks to buy → gold holds its value well despite USD recovery.
=> Conclusion: Sideways with an upward bias.
2. Technical Analysis (M15):
• Short-term trend: UPTREND
• Price is trading above EMA, with a clear Higher High – Higher Low structure.
• Current zone ~ 4475–4480 is a technical correction area after a strong rally.
=> Price is correcting within an uptrend, not a reversal.
RESISTANCE: 4,480 – 4,500 – 4,519
SUPPORT: 4,450 – 4,427 – 4,412
3. Previous Session (8/1/26):
• Gold corrected first, then rallied strongly from the 4412 low up to 4480.
• Strong bullish momentum with clear volume during the rally.
• Late-session mild pullback → healthy correction, no distribution signals.
4. Today’s Strategy (9/1/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4520 – 4518
• SL: 4524
• TP1: 4512
• TP2: 4506
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4436 – 4440
• SL: 4432
• TP1: 4448
• TP2: 4456
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/08/20261. Fundamental Analysis
a) Economy:
• USD: The USD saw a mild rebound as the market adjusted expectations of overly early rate cuts. However, the upside remains limited → not strong enough to create significant downside pressure on gold.
• U.S. Equities: Stocks are moving sideways with early-year cautious sentiment → capital has not aggressively returned to risk assets.
• FED: The FED maintains a “data-dependent” stance with no new hawkish signals. The medium-term outlook continues to support gold.
• Trump Administration: During the power transition phase, markets remain relatively quiet → no short-term policy shock.
• Gold ETFs: SPDR has recently stabilized and even added holdings rather than heavy selling → indicating continued medium- to long-term holding demand.
b) Politics:
• No new geopolitical escalations, but underlying risks persist, keeping gold’s defensive role intact.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Risk-neutral → slightly risk-off. No FOMO behavior; the market prefers waiting for better price zones → suitable for BUY-on-dips strategies.
=> Fundamental Conclusion:
There are no strong enough factors to reverse gold’s medium-term uptrend.
2. Technical Analysis
• Major Trend: Medium-term uptrend remains intact.
• Current Price Action:
• Pullback after failing to hold near the 4,500 level (round number – strong psychological resistance).
• Trading below short-term MAs → a healthy technical correction, not a breakdown.
• RSI has cooled down from overbought levels and is not yet oversold → room remains for a rebound after consolidation.
=> Technical Outlook:
The decline is a correction, not a trend reversal.
RESISTANCE: 4,468 – 4,480 – 4,500
SUPPORT: 4,426 – 4,412 – 4,400
3. Previous Session (08/01/26):
• Failed to hold above 4,500, dipped slightly, then weak rebound, sideways movement.
• Short-term profit-taking pressure emerged precisely at strong resistance.
• Volume did not expand → no signs of major distribution.
• Structure: rally → consolidation → pullback (a familiar pattern).
4. Today’s Strategy (08/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4482 – 4480
• SL: 4486
• TP1: 4474
• TP2: 4468
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4402 – 4405
• SL: 4396
• TP1: 4414
• TP2: 4423
Is GOLD correcting, taking profits, or changing trends?OANDA:XAUUSD nearly 1% drop on Wednesday wasn't a reversal of the trend, but rather the first test after a period of rapid gains.
The market is facing a practical question: is this just a technical "breathing down," or a signal that macroeconomic factors are temporarily unfavorable for gold?
On Wednesday, spot gold fell 0.84% to $4,456 per ounce, at one point losing as much as 1.7% on the day. The noteworthy point isn't the magnitude of the drop, but the reason: better-than-expected US economic data has diminished the precious metal's short-term safe-haven role.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data—particularly the sharp rise in the ISM Services PMI, improving service-sector employment, and JOLTS and ADP reports showing cooling but not weakening labor demand—temporarily reduced safe-haven demand. As gold approached the key psychological level of USD 4,500, profit-taking emerged as a natural technical response.
The recent pullback in gold is viewed as a short-term correction, not a structural trend reversal. Core supportive factors remain intact: the U.S. dollar has not strengthened enough to create lasting pressure, geopolitical tensions persist, expectations of Fed rate cuts are only delayed, and central bank demand—especially continued gold accumulation by China—remains strong.
Geopolitical risks continue to provide a long-term support base for gold, even if they do not trigger daily shocks. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report: weaker labor data could quickly revive rate-cut expectations and support gold, while stable data may lead to further consolidation or short-term correction.
In conclusion, the recent decline represents a pause within a broader uptrend, not a change in the long-term narrative. Gold remains a strategic defensive asset amid a medium-term easing rate outlook and persistent global uncertainty.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4520 - 4518⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4524
→Take Profit 1 4512
↨
→Take Profit 2 4506
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4402 - 4405⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4396
→Take Profit 1 4414
↨
→Take Profit 2 4423
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/07/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Slight recovery at the beginning of the year as short-term flows return to USD, but no sustainable uptrend yet → only creates technical corrective pressure on gold.
• U.S. equities: Cautious trading with low liquidity early in the year → capital has not strongly rotated out of safe-haven assets.
• FED: No new hawkish signals; the market still leans toward an easing scenario this year → medium–long-term foundation continues to support gold.
• TRUMP: Policy-related factors have not created new shocks; current impact remains neutral.
• Gold ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust net bought ~2 tons, confirming large capital inflows and reinforcing the bullish trend.
b) Politics:
• No sudden geopolitical risks; the market is in a waiting mode → favors technical pullbacks rather than trend reversal.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-on but cautious: investors are not aggressively selling gold, only taking short-term profits → consistent with the “pullback then continuation higher” scenario.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Clear primary uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows.
• Price is correcting from the 4500 area, still holding above key EMAs, structure remains intact.
• RSI cooling down from overbought levels → momentum reset, creating room for the next upside leg.
RESISTANCE: 4,500 – 4,451.9 – 4,533
SUPPORT: 4,468 – 4,449 – 4,420
3. Previous Session (6/01/25):
• Price surged strongly then stalled around 4500, exactly as anticipated.
• Low liquidity led to choppy price action, mainly short-term profit-taking, with no signs of major distribution.
• Buyers continue to control the overall trend.
4. Trading Strategy for Today (7/01/25):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4468 – 4466
• SL: 4472
• TP1: 4460
• TP2: 4454
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4413 – 4415
• SL: 4409
• TP1: 4421
• TP2: 4427
Trump stirs up global unrest; will the 2026 bull cycle continue?The market doesn't react to rumors. The market reacts to the right to exercise it.
On Wednesday morning, January 7th, in the Asian session, spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices were high, touching $4,500/ounce, nearing the all-time high of $4,549.71/ounce set in late December. This wasn't just a minimal technical rally. It was a direct reflection of geopolitical anxieties returning to the center of global markets.
When Political Power Becomes a Catalyst for Safe-Haven Assets
The trigger point lies in Venezuela.
Over the weekend, the United States carried out an operation in Caracas and arrested President Nicolás Maduro. This move immediately altered the market’s risk structure: capital flowed out of equities and bonds and surged into precious metals.
In Tuesday’s session, gold rose nearly 1%, closing around USD 4,494 per ounce; U.S. gold futures settled at USD 4,496.10 per ounce. Precious metals traders reacted faster than other markets—a typical signal when geopolitical risk becomes the dominant variable.
The market’s message is clear: when the international order is tested, gold is once again called upon.
Venezuela: Political Shock and the Oil Equation
The arrest of Maduro is not merely a security event. It opens the possibility of restructuring Venezuela’s oil industry under U.S. influence.
The White House is expected to work with energy industry leaders on restoring production, which has fallen from more than 3 million barrels per day two decades ago to below 1 million barrels per day. Deteriorating infrastructure, lack of investment, and the legacy of nationalization under Chávez have turned Venezuela into a geopolitical bottleneck.
For markets, the story goes beyond oil. It represents a precedent of Washington’s willingness to act directly to reshape order in strategic regions. Each such precedent increases the “geopolitical risk premium,” which is typically reflected first in gold prices.
Greenland: Another Front of Strategic Tension
Alongside Venezuela, President Trump continues to mention Greenland—an island with a critical position in Arctic defense systems and rich in mineral resources. Europe’s response has been rare and unified: reaffirming sovereignty, rejecting unilateral pressure, and emphasizing that Arctic security must be based on NATO cooperation.
This is not a routine diplomatic dispute. It reflects a shift from economic competition to competition over strategic space. When major powers begin to “measure borders by power,” markets reprice systemic risk—and gold continues to be bought as insurance.
Monetary Policy: The Second Pillar Supporting the Uptrend
Beyond geopolitics, expectations around the Fed are further reinforcing gold.
Investors are awaiting U.S. labor data, especially the nonfarm payrolls report. Current forecasts point to modest job growth, implying continued pressure for rate cuts. Markets have priced in the possibility of two rate cuts this year.
Major institutions are also raising their forecasts: Morgan Stanley sees gold reaching USD 4,800 per ounce by year-end; UBS believes the USD 5,000 per ounce level could be reached sooner, supported by lower rates, rising fiscal deficits, and sustained central bank demand.
In short: geopolitics provides the push, monetary policy provides the floor.
Not Only Gold: Silver and Supporting Signals
Silver prices jumped more than 6% in Tuesday’s session to USD 81.21 per ounce, extending gains in Asia. The broad alignment across precious metals suggests this is not an isolated technical bounce, but a structural shift in asset positioning.
The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher; bond yields rose as markets awaited data. Yet gold’s reaction shows that interest rates are no longer the sole driver. When political risk dominates, the safe-haven role takes precedence over nominal yield.
Gold’s Bull Cycle Is Being Reaffirmed
At the start of 2026, markets face a new reality: geopolitical power is once again shaping asset prices. Venezuela, Greenland, and hardline signals from Washington are not isolated events; they are manifestations of an order being restructured.
Gold, after rising more than 60% last year, is no longer merely an “inflation hedge.” It is returning to its core function: insurance against systemic risk.
With support from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a prolonged chain of strategic instability, the prospect of gold testing and surpassing USD 5,000 per ounce is no longer an extreme scenario.
The question is not whether gold can continue to rise.
The real question is this: the world is entering a phase in which the cost of instability will be priced ever more expensively—and gold is where the market is willing to pay that price.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4520 - 4518⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4524
→Take Profit 1 4512
↨
→Take Profit 2 4506
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4400 - 4402⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4396
→Take Profit 1 4408
↨
→Take Profit 2 4414
GOLD ANALYSIS 01/06/20261. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD: Slight recovery mainly due to early-year technical factors; no strong data yet to confirm a long-term bullish trend.
• US Stocks: Stable; capital has not shifted strongly into safe-haven assets.
• FED: The market is waiting for more policy signals and early-year economic data → observation mode.
• TRUMP: Donald Trump is leaning toward a managerial/transition role regarding the Venezuela issue, with no new policy shock created for the market.
• Gold ETF: SPDR Gold Trust shows no buying or selling → major funds remain on the sidelines, confirming a wait-and-see sentiment.
b) Politics:
• US – Venezuela tensions have ended; short-term geopolitical risk has decreased, providing no strong catalyst for a sharp gold rally.
c) Market Sentiment:
• The market at the beginning of the year is neutral – cautious, waiting for confirmation and new information.
2. Technical Analysis:
• The overall trend remains a medium-term uptrend (higher highs compared to previous peaks).
• Price is currently in a technical correction after failing to hold higher levels, oscillating around the MA cluster.
• RSI has pulled back from high levels but has not entered oversold territory → a healthy correction, not a trend reversal.
👉 Overall: Sideways consolidation – correction within an uptrend, suitable for BUY on dips, not suitable for SELL against the trend.
RESISTANCE: 4,455 – 4,468 – 4,500
SUPPORT: 4,420 – 4,400 – 4,380
3. Previous Market Session (5/01/26):
• Gold rose 120 points, exactly as analyzed.
• No further breakout; price moved sideways in accumulation, with buying pressure weakening near resistance.
• No support from ETFs → slow price reaction, narrowing range.
• Slight USD recovery created short-term corrective pressure but not enough to break the bullish trend.
4. Today’s Strategy (6/01/26):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4497 – 4495
• SL: 4501
• TP1: 4489
• TP2: 4483
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4443 – 4445
• SL: 4439
• TP1: 4451
• TP2: 4457
GOLD is kept afloat by geopolitics and economic dataThe OANDA:XAUUSD market entered January 6th with a clear message: the upward momentum shows no sign of slowing down. During the Asian trading session, spot gold prices continued to hover around $4,465 per ounce, extending the strong surge from the previous session. This wasn't a random movement, but rather the result of two parallel forces: increasing geopolitical instability and weakening signals from the US economy.
The story begins in Latin America. Washington's military intervention in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro immediately triggered a global safe-haven demand. Markets reacted not to a single event, but to the risk of escalating conflict.
Subsequent statements by President Trump, hinting at the possibility of military action against Colombia over drug trafficking, added another layer of geopolitical risk for investors. In this context, gold was once again chosen as a "defensive anchor."
The market reacted quickly. On Monday, gold rose $116.61, or nearly 2.7%, closing around $4,448.87 per ounce, after hitting a one-week high. Shortly before that, the precious metal had set a historical record at around $4,549.71 per ounce at the end of December, a level that suggests medium-term expectations remain bullish.
In short, the current surge in gold is not simply an emotional reaction, but rather the result of the market simultaneously pricing in geopolitical risk and the weakening of the leading economy. When both of these factors coexist, gold is seen not only as a speculative asset, but also as a barometer of global insecurity.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4531 - 4529⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4535
→Take Profit 1 4523
↨
→Take Profit 2 4517
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4400 - 4402⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4396
→Take Profit 1 4408
↨
→Take Profit 2 4414
XAUUSD Geopolitics can push it to 4650.Gold (XAUUSD) is rising aggressively today, assuming its role as a safe haven in the aftermath of Maduro's capture by the U.S. As long as this geopolitical tension continues, it will push Gold higher, with the technical also favoring such a move, as the long-term trend remains bullish with the 2-year Channel Up intact.
Technically we are currently on its new Bullish Leg and will remain valid for as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds. All three previous Bullish Legs have had their first Higher High Targets on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a short-term Target at 4650.
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Gold Update 05JAN2026: One More Up to $4,584-$4,700Happy New Year and best wishes!
Indeed, it’s not an Ending Diagonal anymore
The Leading Diagonal in wave 1 confused me into thinking the entire wave 5 was an Ending Diagonal
As the dust settles and the chart moves further to the right, the structure becomes clearer
We now have waves 1–2–3–4 in place, and the bottom of wave 4 has held above the peak of wave 1 at $4,250, which is healthy
The final wave 5 of (5) of ((5)) could be underway, targeting the blue box area
This lies between $4,584 (the all-time high) and $4,700 (the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of waves 1–3)
Both targets align well with the yellow uptrend
Wave 5 should print lower on RSI while price makes a higher high, confirming bearish divergence






















