A Gold/GLD Drop Scenario You Should Not IgnoreSometimes you don't need a ton of information.
Sometimes, it's just the right moment when a few facts come together, and you make up your mind.
That's the case now with Gold for me.
We know that the behavior changed when Gold left the Fork in July.
We also know that if price leaves a Fork, it's highly possible we’ll see a test/re-test at the L-MLH, the lower median line parallel.
Additionally, Allan H. Andrews, the inventor of the Median Lines/Forks, wrote back then that price could also crawl along the parallel line for a longer period. And if price can't manage to jump back into the Fork—regaining the trajectory of the slope—it will trade in the opposite direction sooner or later.
Last but not least: I checked GLD too. Surprisingly it reached the Centerline just yesterday (See screenshot in the right lower corner of the Chart). So price has a high tendency to turn in the opposite direction when balanced again.
So, there you have it.
I’m planning a short, with profits at the WL as my first target.
But what if it goes wrong, if price climbs higher?
Well, then I’ll probably get stopped out, which is nothing more than part of this business.
Any questions?
Don't hesitate to ask me. It's the only way humans learn—by asking questions.
Cheers
§8-)
Gc1!!
GC1! Thief Trader Mission – Short Gold, Grab the Loot🚨💰 Thief Trader Gold Heist Plan – GC1! "The Gold" Metal Market 🎭🔒
🌟Hey Robbers & Money Makers!🌟
Welcome back to another OG Thief Trader Robbery Plan — today we’re targeting the shining vault of GC1! "The Gold".
This time, the mission is BEARISH. The vault doors are heavy, but with layered sell entries, we’re breaking in! 💣💸
📜 The Plan (Swing/Day Trade)
Entry 🏴☠️: Any price level — but real thieves don’t rush! Use layered sell limit entries like a pro:
🔹 3360.0
🔹 3370.0
🔹 3380.0
(Add more layers if you’re greedy enough 👀💰)
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL @ 3400.0 (but remember, OG’s — adjust your SL with your own risk appetite & strategy).
Target 🎯: Police barricade spotted near 3300.0 — our final escape point is 3310.0. Grab the gold & run before the cops catch you 🚔💨.
📊 Thief Strategy 🕵️♂️
We don’t enter with just one order — layering strategy is the art of the heist. Multiple entries = multiple chances to loot the market. Scalpers & swingers both welcome to join this robbery.
📰 Thief’s Outlook (Gold Market Status)
Trend: Bearish bias 🐻
Setup: Short the rallies 🔥
Sentiment: Overloaded bulls = perfect robbery target 🎯
Fundamentals & Macros: Inflation heat & policy shifts keeping gold shaky ⚖️
⚠️ Robbery Warning 🚨
Avoid getting trapped during major news releases 📢.
Protect your loot with trailing stops 🛡️.
Never risk your whole bag on one entry — spread it thief-style.
💖 Support the crew! 💖
Follow, like, and share this heist plan with your robbery gang 🤝. The more OG’s we got, the bigger the score 💎💰.
See you after the escape, thieves — with pockets full & smiles wide 🏆🤑🐱👤
XAUUSD about to make new ATH and head to $3800Gold (XAUUSD) is on a huge rebound following the double bounce on its 1W MA20 (red trend-line), a level which has been previously associated with the start of very strong rallies.
The 2-year Channel Up that started back in October 2023 has always formed a consolidation Triangle before the next Bullish Leg and on the three past occasions that was initiated after a 1W MA20 contact.
Assuming we 'just' repeat the minimum +22.41% Bullish Leg, we are targeting at least $3800 before the current peaks.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish! Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Sept 1 - 15th.
Gold has been ranging for months. August closed strong, above the high of July. I am looking for continuation of this bullish momentum in September.
Wait for buying opportunities. Be patient. +FVGs will form, and present the best POIs for long entries.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 01 - Sep 05]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price increased quite strongly from 3,352 USD/oz to 3,453 USD/oz. The reason for the continued increase in gold price is because investors are still expecting the FED to cut interest rates by 0.25% at the upcoming September meeting, as well as the conflict between the Trump administration and the FED.
Next week, financial markets in the US will be closed for Labor Day on Monday. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing PMI data. The PMI is forecast to increase slightly to 48.6 in August from 48 in July. If the forecast is correct, it will have a negative impact on gold prices next week.
In addition, on Friday, the US will release the August non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. If the NFP continues to decline compared to the expected 74,000 jobs, it will force the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which will have a positive impact on gold prices next week. On the contrary, a stronger-than-expected NFP growth, combined with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, could make the market tilt towards the Fed continuing to delay interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fall next week. However, given the current US economic situation, the August NFP may continue to decline.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price broke the Trendline and it is likely that the price will continue to increase to near the threshold of 3500 USD/oz. In case the price corrects again, it will return to the resistance zone at the threshold of 3370.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,430 – 3,400 – 3,371USD
Resistance: 3,450 – 3,500USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3541 - 3539⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3545
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3369 - 3371⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3365
# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - 2# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - August 2025
Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Intraday and Swing Trading
Current Price: $3,448.12 USD (as of August 31, 2025, 16:03 UTC+4)
24H Change: +0.91%
Monthly Performance: +5.31%
YTD Performance: +37.77%
Market Sentiment: Bullish with Momentum Consolidation
---
Executive Summary
Gold has reached unprecedented heights, trading above $3,400 for the first time in history. Gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, up 0.91% from the previous day, with prices rising 5.31% over the past month and up 37.77% compared to the same time last year. The rally toward $3,450 has been driven by increasing Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets, creating a perfect storm for precious metals appreciation.
Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Support: $3,380 - $3,400 (Previous resistance turned support)
Critical Support: $3,300 - $3,320 (Major consolidation zone)
Key Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500 (Psychological barrier)
Extended Target: $3,550 - $3,600 (Next major resistance cluster)
---
Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Impact
The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range during its July 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving economic conditions. Fed interest rates are driving gold toward $3,500/oz with monetary policy impacts creating significant investment opportunities.
Macroeconomic Environment
Fed Funds Rate: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged but dovish signals emerging)
Inflation Expectations: Moderating, supporting rate cut narrative
Geopolitical Tensions: Elevated, providing safe-haven demand
Dollar Strength: Weakening on rate cut expectations
Gold's Fundamental Drivers
1. Monetary Policy Anticipation: Market pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts
2. Currency Debasement: Continued fiscal expansion supporting hard assets
3. Institutional Demand: Central bank buying and ETF inflows
4. Technical Momentum: Breaking multi-year resistance levels
---
Chart Analysis & Pattern Recognition
Long-Term Structure Analysis
From the daily chart provided, several key observations emerge:
Major Trend Analysis:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish since October 2024 lows around $2,600
Current Phase: Explosive breakout above $3,400 resistance
Trend Characteristics: Steep ascent with minimal corrections
Volume Confirmation: Strong buying interest on breakouts
Key Price Levels from Chart:
Historical Low (Oct 2024): ~$2,580
Major Support Zone: $3,200 - $3,300
Breakout Level: $3,400 (successfully breached)
Current Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500
---
Multi-Methodology Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis
Recent Formation: Strong bullish momentum candles
Pattern: Consecutive higher highs and higher lows
Current Structure: Testing resistance with strong bodies
Volume Analysis: Increasing on advances, light on corrections
Momentum: Sustained buying pressure evident
2. Elliott Wave Theory Analysis
Wave Structure: Completing extended Wave 5 of larger degree
Primary Count: In Wave 5 of Cycle degree from 2020 lows
Current Position: Extended Wave 5 targeting $3,500-$3,600
Subwave Analysis: Minor wave 3 or 5 in progress
Fibonacci Extensions:
- 1.618 extension: $3,520
- 2.618 extension: $3,680
Invalidation Level: Break below $3,300 would reset count
3. Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Active Pattern: Bullish Deep Crab completion zone
Pattern Type: Large timeframe Deep Crab from 2020 lows
Completion Zone: $3,200-$3,400 (completed)
Current Phase: Impulse move following harmonic completion
Next Targets:
- Conservative: $3,550
- Extended: $3,750
4. Wyckoff Market Cycle Analysis
Current Phase: Markup Phase (Distribution Signs Monitored)
Background: Institutional accumulation completed below $3,200
Current Action: Strong markup with broad participation
Volume Characteristics: Healthy on advances, suspect on declines
Warning Signs: Watch for climactic volume above $3,500
Distribution Alerts: Any selling on strength above $3,480
5. W.D. Gann Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
Current Position: $3,448 aligns with 225° (critical angle)
Support Levels:
- $3,380 (216°)
- $3,317 (206°)
- $3,258 (196°)
Resistance Levels:
- $3,516 (234°)
- $3,587 (244°)
- $3,662 (253°)
Time Cycles:
Next Major Time Window: September 12-18, 2025
Gann Angles from August Low:
- 1x1 Angle: $3,420 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Angle: $3,380 (secondary support)
- 1x2 Angle: $3,490 (resistance)
6. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Cloud Status: Price strongly above Kumo with expanding cloud
Tenkan-Sen (9): $3,425 (bullish signal above)
Kijun-Sen (26): $3,380 (strong support)
Senkou Span A: $3,400 (cloud top support)
Senkou Span B: $3,320 (major cloud support)
Chikou Span: Above price action confirming bullish momentum
Signal Interpretation: All Ichimoku elements align bullishly
---
Technical Indicators Analysis
Momentum Indicators
RSI (14-period) Analysis:
4H RSI: 68.5 (approaching overbought but still room)
Daily RSI: 72.3 (overbought but strong trend)
Weekly RSI: 78.2 (extended but not diverging)
Divergence Watch: No negative divergence observed
MACD Analysis:
Signal: Bullish crossover confirmed on all timeframes
Histogram: Expanding positive histogram
Momentum: Accelerating with no signs of weakness
Warning Level: Watch for divergence above $3,500
Volatility & Trend Strength
Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Current Position: Upper band walk in progress
Band Configuration: Expanding bands indicating strong trend
Squeeze Analysis: Recent expansion from consolidation
Volatility: Increasing supporting continued move
Average True Range (ATR):
Daily ATR: $45-55 (elevated volatility)
Trend Strength: ATR expanding confirming strong trend
Stop Loss Guidance: Use 2x ATR for swing positions
Volume Analysis
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP):
Daily VWAP: $3,420 (key support)
Weekly VWAP: $3,350 (major support)
Volume Profile:
- High Volume Node: $3,200-$3,300
- Value Area High: $3,380
- Point of Control: $3,280
Volume Characteristics:
Accumulation Evidence: Higher volume on advances
Distribution Watch: Monitor volume above $3,480
Institutional Activity: Consistent buying support
Moving Average Configuration
Short-term Alignment:
EMA 21: $3,410 (immediate support)
EMA 50: $3,350 (intermediate support)
SMA 100: $3,280 (major trend support)
EMA 200: $3,180 (long-term trend support)
Golden Cross Status: All major averages in bullish alignment
---
Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy
Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H)
# Primary Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Long Entry Opportunities:
Entry 1: $3,420-$3,440 (VWAP support retest)
Entry 2: $3,380-$3,400 (previous resistance turned support)
Entry 3: $3,480+ breakout (momentum continuation)
Stop Loss Levels:
Aggressive: $3,380 (below key support)
Conservative: $3,350 (below VWAP support)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,480 (immediate resistance)
TP2: $3,520 (Fibonacci extension)
TP3: $3,550 (psychological level)
Risk-Reward Analysis: 1:3.5 average across setups
# Timeframe-Specific Strategies:
5M/15M Charts:
Scalping Range: $3,420-$3,480
Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 21 EMA
Quick Targets: $20-30 moves
30M/1H Charts:
Swing Setup: Breakout above $3,450
Targets: $3,500-$3,520
Time Horizon: 2-4 hours
4H Charts:
Position Trading: Above $3,400 support
Major Target: $3,600
Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily - Monthly)
# Long-Term Bullish Campaign
Position Building Strategy:
Accumulation Zone: $3,350-$3,420
Core Position: 60% of intended size
Add on Strength: 25% above $3,480
Final Addition: 15% on $3,500 breakout
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: $3,280 (below monthly support)
Trailing Stop: Use 21-day EMA
Time Stop: Exit if no progress in 30 days
Target Progression:
Short-term: $3,550 (September target)
Medium-term: $3,700 (Q4 2025 target)
Long-term: $4,000 (2026 target)
Hedging and Risk Management
# Portfolio Hedging Strategies
Gold Miners Hedge:
- Long physical gold, short gold miners on ratio extremes
- Monitor GDX/GLD ratio for opportunities
Currency Hedge:
- DXY inverse correlation monitoring
- Consider EURUSD long positions as dollar hedge
Interest Rate Hedge:
- TLT positions to hedge rate cut scenarios
- Monitor 10-year yield for confirmation
---
Advanced Pattern Recognition
Bull Trap Analysis
Potential Bull Trap Zones:
Level 1: $3,500-$3,520 (psychological resistance)
Level 2: $3,600-$3,650 (major Fibonacci cluster)
Warning Signs:
- Volume divergence on new highs
- RSI negative divergence
- Increased volatility without progress
Trap Avoidance:
- Wait for volume confirmation on breakouts
- Use smaller position sizes near resistance
- Implement tight stops above $3,520
Bear Trap Opportunities
Bear Trap Setup Levels:
Primary: $3,380-$3,400 (false breakdown)
Secondary: $3,300-$3,320 (major support test)
Entry Strategy: Quick recovery above breakdown level
Target: Previous highs plus 50%
---
Sector Rotation and Correlation Analysis
Gold Mining Stocks Analysis
GDX/GLD Ratio: Currently extended, expect compression
Individual Miners:
Barrick Gold (GOLD): Leverage play on gold upside
Newmont (NEM): Defensive gold exposure
Strategy: Rotate from physical to miners on ratio extremes
Currency Correlations
USD Index (DXY): Strong negative correlation maintained
EURUSD: Positive correlation with gold strengthening
JPYUSD: Safe haven competition dynamic
Commodity Complex
Silver (XAGUSD): Lagging gold, potential catch-up trade
Copper: Industrial demand indicator watch
Oil: Inflation correlation monitoring
---
Economic Calendar Impact Analysis
High-Impact Events (September 2025)
September 2-6, 2025:
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change
Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (Critical)
Fed Related Events:
September 12: Core CPI Data
September 18: FOMC Meeting Minutes
September 20: Fed Officials Speeches
Trading Approach Around Events:
- Reduce positions 2 hours before NFP
- Increase hedging before FOMC minutes
- Use options for event-driven strategies
---
Scenario Planning & Contingency Analysis
Scenario 1: Fed Cuts Aggressively (40% Probability)
Trigger: 50bp rate cut in September
Gold Target: $3,700-$3,800
Strategy: Maximum long exposure
Timeline: 30-45 days
Scenario 2: Fed Remains Hawkish (25% Probability)
Trigger: No rate cuts, hawkish rhetoric
Gold Target: $3,100-$3,200 retracement
Strategy: Defensive positioning, reduce leverage
Timeline: 2-3 weeks
Scenario 3: Market Crisis/Risk-Off (20% Probability)
Trigger: Geopolitical escalation or financial crisis
Gold Target: $3,800-$4,000 (crisis high)
Strategy: Maximum safe-haven positioning
Timeline: Immediate
Scenario 4: Inflation Resurgence (15% Probability)
Trigger: Unexpected inflation spike
Gold Target: $3,600-$3,900
Strategy: Inflation hedge positioning
Timeline: 45-60 days
---
Options and Derivatives Strategy
Options Strategies for Gold Exposure
Bull Call Spreads:
Structure: Long $3,400 calls, short $3,500 calls
Expiration: 30-45 days
Max Profit: Limited but defined
Risk: Premium paid
Protective Puts:
Strike: $3,300 (below major support)
Expiration: Monthly
Purpose: Portfolio insurance
Cost: 1-2% of position value
ETF and Futures Considerations
Physical Gold ETFs:
GLD: Largest, most liquid
IAU: Lower expense ratio
SGOL: Swiss storage option
Gold Futures:
GC Contracts: Direct price exposure
Micro Gold: Smaller position sizing
Margin Requirements: Monitor closely
---
Technical Rating & Probability Assessment
Overall Technical Rating: STRONG BUY
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Timeframe Ratings:
Intraday (1H-4H): BUY (85% bullish)
Short-term (Daily): STRONG BUY (90% bullish)
Medium-term (Weekly): STRONG BUY (85% bullish)
Long-term (Monthly): BUY (75% bullish)
Key Bullish Catalysts:
1. Technical Breakout: Clean break above $3,400 resistance
2. Fed Policy: Rate cut expectations building
3. Momentum: All timeframes aligned bullishly
4. Volume: Confirming accumulation patterns
Bearish Risk Factors:
1. Overextension: RSI levels stretched on weekly charts
2. Fed Hawkishness: Potential policy surprise
3. Dollar Strength: DXY recovery could pressure gold
4. Profit Taking: Natural at psychological $3,500 level
---
Weekly Trading Plan & Execution
Week of September 2-6, 2025
# Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected
Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $3,420-$3,440
Targets: $3,480 resistance test
Risk Management: Tight stops below $3,400
# Wednesday-Thursday: Event Risk Management
Strategy: Reduce leverage ahead of economic data
Focus: Defensive positioning pre-NFP
Opportunity: Post-event volatility trades
# Friday: NFP Reaction Strategy
Bullish NFP: Sell the news, expect pullback
Bearish NFP: Add to long positions aggressively
Neutral NFP: Continue trend-following approach
Position Sizing Recommendations
Conservative: 2-3% portfolio allocation
Moderate: 5-7% portfolio allocation
Aggressive: 8-12% portfolio allocation
Risk per Trade: Maximum 1% of total capital
---
Long-Term Investment Thesis
Secular Bull Market Drivers
Monetary Debasement: Continued fiat currency depreciation
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions
Central Bank Demand: Record official sector purchases
Supply Constraints: Limited new mine development
Price Targets by Timeline
Q4 2025: $3,600-$3,800
Q1 2026: $3,800-$4,200
End 2026: $4,200-$4,800
2027-2028: $5,000+ potential
Investment Allocation Strategy
Core Holdings: 40% physical gold/ETFs
Trading Position: 30% futures/options
Mining Exposure: 20% quality miners
Cash Reserve: 10% for opportunities
---
Risk Disclaimers and Considerations
Market Risks
Volatility Risk: Gold can experience sharp moves
Liquidity Risk: Reduced liquidity during market stress
Currency Risk: USD movements affect returns
Storage Risk: Physical gold storage considerations
Regulatory and Tax Implications
Tax Treatment: Different rules for physical vs. paper gold
Reporting Requirements: Large position disclosure rules
Regulatory Changes: Potential trading restrictions
Technical Analysis Limitations
Pattern Failure: Technical patterns can fail
Black Swan Events: Unexpected market shocks
Model Risk: Over-reliance on historical patterns
Execution Risk: Slippage and timing issues
---
Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Gold's technical picture presents one of the most compelling bullish setups in recent history. Gold closed August with a strong daily close in premium territory, pressing into the 3460–3480 supply zone, with bulls maintaining control of momentum as September opens.
Immediate Action Items:
1. Accumulate Positions: Use any dip to $3,400-$3,420 as buying opportunity
2. Manage Risk: Implement proper position sizing and stop losses
3. Monitor Fed Policy: Watch for dovish signals supporting further upside
4. Prepare for Breakout: Position for potential move to $3,550-$3,600
Key Success Factors:
Discipline: Stick to predetermined risk management rules
Patience: Allow patterns to develop fully
Flexibility: Adapt to changing market conditions
Diversification: Use multiple gold investment vehicles
The confluence of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors creates a rare alignment supporting significantly higher gold prices. While short-term volatility is expected, the medium to long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish.
Final Rating: STRONG BUY with careful risk management
XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast
Current Price: $3,448.12 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4)
Asset Class: XAUUSD / Gold Spot
Analysis Date: August 30, 2025
---
Executive Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) continues its extraordinary bull market trajectory, currently trading at $3,448.12 per ounce, representing a phenomenal 37.77% year-over-year gain. Recent market data confirms gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, posting a daily gain of 0.91% and a substantial 5.31% monthly advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the precious metal is positioned within a critical resistance zone near $3,390-3,400, forming a pennant/ascending triangle pattern with declining volume suggesting near-term indecision. Analytical forecasts project potential targets of $3,597.89 by end-2025, supported by ongoing monetary accommodation and geopolitical uncertainties.
---
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis
Gold's price action demonstrates a complex five-wave impulse structure within a Grand Super Cycle:
Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of - final extension phase
Wave Structure: Completing terminal impulse toward $3,800-4,000 zone
Corrective Potential: Wave 4 completion suggests limited downside to $3,200-3,150
Extended Projection: Long-term targets reach $4,200-4,500 by 2026-2027
Invalidation Level: Break below $3,150 would negate primary bullish count
Fibonacci Relationships: Current wave exhibits 1.618 extension characteristics
Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis
Gold exhibits Wyckoff Distribution Phase characteristics at current elevated levels:
Phase: Early Distribution with testing of supply levels
Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent advances indicates weakening demand
Price Action: Narrowing ranges with repeated tests of $3,400 resistance
Composite Operator Activity: Institutional profit-taking evident above $3,350
Market Character: Building selling pressure against strong underlying demand
Accumulation Zones: $3,150-3,250 represents potential future re-accumulation
W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
- Current price $3,448.12 positioned at critical 180-degree Gann resistance
- Next major Gann square: $3,721 (360-degree completion from cycle low)
- Time and price convergence: September 18-25, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence)
- Cardinal Gann levels: $3,481, $3,600, $3,721 (geometric progressions)
Angle Theory Application:
- 1x1 Rising Angle Support: $3,250-3,300 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Accelerated Angle: $3,500-3,550 (next resistance cluster)
- 1x2 Support Angle: $3,000-3,100 (major correction boundary)
- 1x4 Long-term Support: $2,800-2,900 (secular bull market support)
Time Cycle Analysis:
- 120-day cycle completion due: Mid-September 2025
- Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically strong for gold
- Major time window: October 12-22, 2025 (critical turning point)
- Lunar cycles: New moon September 15 coincides with technical resistance
Price Forecasting & Squaring of Price and Time:
- Immediate resistance: $3,480-3,520
- Primary target: $3,650-3,750
- Extended projection: $3,850-4,000
- Time harmony suggests breakthrough after October equinox
Ranges in Harmony:
- Current range: $3,350-3,480 (compression phase)
- Next expansion: $3,200-3,800 (major trading range)
- Long-term channel: $2,500-4,500 (multi-year projection)
---
Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis
Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart)
Doji Patterns: August 28-30 showing indecision at resistance
Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $3,450-3,480 levels
Bullish Marubozu: August 26 confirming strong buying interest
Volume Divergence: Declining volume on recent rally attempts
Evening Star Formation: Potential three-candle reversal pattern developing
Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone $3,380-3,420 (current area)
ABCD Pattern: Active correction targeting $3,200-3,250
Gartley Formation: Long-term bullish pattern projecting $4,200+
Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple retracement levels converging at $3,250
Advanced Harmonic Analysis
Three Drives Pattern: Completing third drive toward $3,500-3,600
Butterfly Pattern: Extreme extension suggesting $3,150-3,200 correction
Cypher Pattern: Potential reversal zone at $3,600-3,700
Deep Crab Setup: Long-term bullish projection to $4,500-5,000
Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Analysis
Current Setup Assessment:
Bull Trap Probability: 65% - False breakout above $3,450 likely
Bear Trap Potential: 35% - Shallow correction creating buying opportunity
Key Levels: Break above $3,520 negates trap scenario
Volume Confirmation: Required for sustainable breakout above resistance
---
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart)
Price Position: Above Kumo cloud but approaching resistance
Tenkan-sen (9-period): $3,421 (short-term dynamic resistance)
Kijun-sen (26-period): $3,367 (medium-term trend support)
Senkou Span A: $3,394 (leading span A - immediate support)
Senkou Span B: $3,289 (leading span B - key cloud support)
Chikou Span: Approaching resistance at historical price levels
Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead):
- Thinning cloud structure indicating potential volatility increase
- Future resistance zone: $3,500-3,600 (forward-looking cloud top)
- Kumo twist anticipated: Late September 2025
Ichimoku Trading Signals
TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun but flattening (weakening signal)
Price vs Cloud: Above cloud with momentum slowing
Chikou Span: Potential resistance at $3,450 historical level
Cloud Breakout: Consolidating above cloud with mixed signals
---
Technical Indicators Deep Dive
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe
Daily RSI: 58.4 (neutral zone, down from recent highs)
Weekly RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought but not extreme)
4H RSI: 52.1 (reset from overbought levels)
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence forming on daily timeframe
RSI Support: 50 level crucial for maintaining bullish momentum
Bollinger Bands Analysis
Current Position: Price at upper band ($3,450 level)
Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation)
%B Indicator: 0.89 (near upper extreme but not at 1.0)
Squeeze Formation: Bollinger Band squeeze developing for next move
VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Daily VWAP: $3,398 (key support level)
Weekly VWAP: $3,324 (intermediate support zone)
Monthly VWAP: $3,187 (major trend support)
Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $3,250-3,350 zone
Moving Average Structure
10 EMA: $3,412 (immediate dynamic support)
20 EMA: $3,384 (short-term trend support)
50 SMA: $3,298 (intermediate support)
100 SMA: $3,156 (key trend support)
200 SMA: $2,934 (major secular support)
Moving Average Signals:
- Perfect bullish alignment maintained across all timeframes
- Golden Cross pattern firmly established
- Price trading above all major moving averages
---
Support & Resistance Analysis
Primary Resistance Levels
1. R1: $3,480-3,520 (immediate Gann and technical resistance)
2. R2: $3,600-3,650 (major harmonic completion zone)
3. R3: $3,750-3,800 (Elliott Wave 5 target area)
4. R4: $3,900-4,000 (psychological and long-term projection)
5. R5: $4,200-4,500 (Extended Elliott Wave and Gann targets)
Primary Support Levels
1. S1: $3,367 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support)
2. S2: $3,250-3,300 (major accumulation and VWAP zone)
3. S3: $3,150-3,200 (Elliott Wave 4 and harmonic support)
4. S4: $3,000-3,100 (psychological and 1x2 Gann angle)
5. S5: $2,800-2,900 (major secular bull market support)
Volume-Based Support/Resistance
High Volume Node: $3,250-3,350 (institutional accumulation)
Low Volume Gap: $3,450-3,550 (potential rapid movement zone)
Volume Resistance: $3,600+ (historical distribution levels)
POC (Point of Control): $3,285 (maximum volume acceptance)
---
Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework
Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts)
5-Minute Timeframe Methodology:
Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 in uptrend
Profit Targets: $8-15 per ounce per scalping trade
Stop Loss: $5-8 maximum risk per position
Volume Filter: Above-average volume required for entries
Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-5:00 AM, NY session 8:00-11:00 AM EST
15-Minute Scalping Framework:
Range Trading: Current range $3,420-3,470
Breakout Strategy: Volume confirmation above $3,470 for continuation
Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2.5 standard deviations from VWAP
Risk Management: Maximum 4 positions per session, 1:2 R:R minimum
Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H)
30-Minute Chart Approach:
Trend Following: Long above EMA cluster ($3,400-3,410)
Pattern Trading: Triangle and flag formations near resistance
Target Methodology: Initial $3,480, extended $3,520-3,550
Risk Parameters: $15-25 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum
1-Hour Chart Strategy:
Momentum Trading: MACD bullish crossovers with histogram expansion
Support Bounces: Long entries from $3,350-3,400 zone
Resistance Fading: Short opportunities above $3,470 without volume
Session Management: Focus on London AM and NY session overlap
4-Hour Swing Framework:
Cloud Strategy: Long on successful Ichimoku cloud support tests
Elliott Wave: Prepare for Wave 5 completion and subsequent correction
Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for entries
Hold Duration: 3-10 days for swing positions
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Daily Chart Methodology:
Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above $3,520 with volume
Correction Trading: Accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350
Target Progression: $3,650 → $3,800 → $4,000 sequential targets
Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations
Weekly Chart Analysis:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above $3,000 weekly support
Swing Targets: $3,800-4,000 zone for major profit-taking
Risk Management: Weekly closes below $3,150 signal trend change
Monthly Chart Perspective:
Secular Trend: Multi-decade bull market acceleration phase
Long-term Targets: $5,000-6,000 by 2027-2030
Major Support: $2,500-2,800 (unlikely to test in current cycle)
---
Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced Liquidity)
Market Conditions: Thin trading expected, potential for gap moves
Technical Setup:
Resistance: $3,470, $3,500, $3,530
Support: $3,400, $3,350, $3,300
Expected Range: $3,380-3,480
Trading Strategy:
Reduced Position Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant caution
Gap Trading: Monitor overnight developments for gap opportunities
Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout
Risk Management: Tighter stops due to thin liquidity
Tuesday, September 3, 2025
Market Outlook: Full participation returns, volatility potential increases
Key Events & Strategy:
Economic Calendar: US manufacturing data and job openings
Technical Focus: $3,450-3,470 resistance cluster test
Fed Watch: Monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches
Entry Strategy: Long $3,380-3,420 targeting $3,500+
Risk Considerations:
- Dollar strength potential from strong economic data
- Geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand
- Interest rate expectations impact on gold
Wednesday, September 4, 2025
Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum with focus on Fed policy signals
Strategic Framework:
Pattern Recognition: Triangle/pennant completion monitoring
Volume Analysis: Institutional participation crucial for breakout
Support Defense: $3,350-3,400 zone strength critical
Breakout Preparation: Position for move above $3,480
Trading Approach:
Momentum Strategy: Follow confirmed breakouts with volume
Contrarian Setup: Fade false breakouts without participation
News Trading: ADP employment data potential market mover
Thursday, September 5, 2025
Market Outlook: Pre-NFP positioning and weekly close dynamics
Key Considerations:
NFP Preparation: Traders positioning ahead of Friday's data
Technical Levels: $3,500-3,550 next major resistance zone
Jobless Claims: Weekly data could influence gold sentiment
Fed Policy: Continued monitoring of rate cut expectations
Execution Strategy:
Trend Continuation: Above $3,450 favors $3,550 target
Profit Scaling: Take profits at $3,500, $3,550, $3,600 levels
Risk Adjustment: Prepare for NFP volatility
Friday, September 6, 2025
Market Outlook: NFP release and weekly close significance
Critical Session Strategy:
NFP Impact: Non-farm payrolls major market catalyst
Weekly Close: Above $3,420 maintains bullish structure
Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful trades
Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and news flow considerations
Trading Framework:
Pre-NFP: Light positioning due to event risk
Post-NFP: React to data with appropriate position sizing
Weekly Levels: Close above $3,450 very bullish, below $3,350 concerning
---
Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis
Federal Reserve Policy Impact
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance remains crucial for gold's trajectory. Current fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% with markets anticipating rate cuts later in 2025 provides a supportive backdrop for gold. Recent Fed meetings show officials holding rates steady while markets expect 2-3 potential cuts before year-end, representing a shift from earlier expectations.
Interest Rate Environment
Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite restrictive monetary policy, with COMEX gold futures open interest rising 8% following recent Fed meetings. Low gold lease rates at 0.33% indicate weak lending demand, supporting underlying physical demand for the precious metal.
Inflation Dynamics & Currency Debasement
The relationship between Federal Reserve policies and gold prices has intensified, with the precious metal serving as an inflation hedge and currency debasement protection. Rising real yields remain a headwind, but ongoing monetary accommodation expectations support higher gold prices.
Geopolitical Risk Factors
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing tensions affecting global growth
2. Currency Wars: Competitive devaluations supporting gold demand
3. Debt Ceiling Issues: US fiscal concerns driving safe-haven flows
4. Middle East Tensions: Regional conflicts supporting risk premiums
5. China-US Relations: Trade disputes affecting global stability
---
Central Bank Gold Demand & ETF Flows
Central Bank Activity
Net Purchases: Continued central bank accumulation, particularly from emerging markets
Diversification Drive: Move away from dollar-denominated reserves
Strategic Reserves: Gold viewed as portfolio diversification tool
Policy Support: Central bank demand providing price floor
ETF Flow Analysis
GLD Holdings: Monitoring largest gold ETF for institutional sentiment
Retail Demand: Continued interest in gold-backed securities
Flow Patterns: Consistent inflows supporting underlying demand
Market Structure: ETF demand creating physical market tightness
---
Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment
Current Market Structure Analysis
Bull Trap Scenario (65% Probability):
Characteristics: False breakout above $3,470-3,500 resistance
Volume Profile: Declining volume on advance indicating weak breakout
Technical Setup: RSI divergence and overextended conditions
Price Target: Correction to $3,200-3,250 support zone
Time Frame: 2-4 weeks for trap completion
Bear Trap Scenario (35% Probability):
Characteristics: Shallow decline to $3,350-3,300 creating buying opportunity
Volume Confirmation: High volume on support test indicating accumulation
Technical Reversal: Hammer or doji formation at key support levels
Breakout Target: $3,600-3,800 following trap completion
Catalyst Required: Fed dovish pivot or geopolitical escalation
Trap Identification Signals
Bull Trap Confirmation:
- Break above $3,480 on low volume
- Immediate reversal within 24-48 hours
- High volume selling on decline
- RSI failure at resistance level
Bear Trap Confirmation:
- Sharp decline to $3,300-3,350 on moderate volume
- Quick reversal with volume expansion
- Gap up following support test
- Institutional buying evidence
---
Risk Management Comprehensive Framework
Position Sizing Methodology
Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade
Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk
Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position
Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total gold-related risk allocation
Stop-Loss Implementation
Scalping: $5-10 per ounce maximum
Intraday: $15-30 per ounce based on volatility
Swing Trading: Below key support levels ($3,250 for current longs)
Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels
Profit-Taking Strategy
Scaling Approach: 25% at first target, 50% at second, hold 25%
Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement
Time-Based Exits: Close before major Fed announcements
Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones
---
Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix
Bullish Scenario (Probability: 45%)
Primary Catalysts:
- Federal Reserve dovish policy signals
- Geopolitical tensions escalation
- Technical breakout above $3,520 with volume
- Weaker US economic data supporting rate cut expectations
Price Objectives:
- Initial: $3,550-3,650
- Extended: $3,750-3,800
- Optimistic: $4,000+
Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 35%)
Characteristics:
- Range-bound trading $3,300-3,500
- Mixed economic signals and Fed uncertainty
- Technical indecision at resistance levels
- Declining volatility and volume
Bearish Scenario (Probability: 20%)
Risk Factors:
- Fed hawkish surprise or strong economic data
- Technical breakdown below $3,300 support
- Dollar strength and rising real yields
- Profit-taking from institutional players
Downside Targets:
- Initial: $3,200-3,250
- Extended: $3,100-3,150
- Stress: $3,000-3,050
---
Long-Term Strategic Outlook
Secular Bull Market Analysis
Gold's secular bull market remains intact with multiple supportive factors:
Monetary Debasement: Ongoing currency printing cycles
Debt Sustainability: Growing government debt burdens globally
Demographic Shifts: Aging populations requiring safe assets
Technology Disruption: Digital currencies highlighting gold's role
Multi-Year Price Projections
2025 Year-End: $3,597-3,800 (analytical forecast range)
2026 Target: $4,200-4,500 (Elliott Wave completion)
2027-2030: $5,000-6,000 (secular bull market continuation)
Crisis Scenario: $7,000+ (major monetary system disruption)
---
Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Gold (XAUUSD) stands at a critical juncture near $3,448, exhibiting technical characteristics of a mature bull market phase with potential for both continuation and correction. The confluence of multiple analytical methodologies suggests elevated probability for a near-term consolidation or correction before the next major advance toward $4,000+.
Key Success Factors:
1. Federal Reserve Policy Support: Dovish pivot crucial for next leg higher
2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $3,520 with volume
3. Geopolitical Catalyst: Safe-haven demand supporting higher prices
4. Dollar Weakness: USD decline necessary for gold strength
Critical Monitoring Points:
1. September 18 FOMC Meeting: Next Fed policy decision impact
2. Technical Level Behavior: Response at $3,450-3,520 resistance
3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts
4. Global Risk Sentiment: Correlation changes with risk assets
Strategic Recommendation:
Maintain cautiously optimistic stance with tactical flexibility. Current setup favors a Bull Trap scenario with 65% probability, suggesting opportunity to accumulate on pullbacks to $3,250-3,350 zone. Risk management remains paramount given elevated volatility potential and technical setup maturity.
The October time window (12-22) represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term direction, with potential for either final impulse toward $4,000+ or corrective phase toward $3,150-3,200.
---
*This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Gold trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.*
---
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
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Website: shunya dot trade
Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Gold, Yields, and the Fed: How Monetary Policy Drives Markets
Few forces shape global markets more than U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, maximum employment and 2% inflation is the anchor for its decisions. For traders, understanding how these objectives translate into interest rate changes is critical for positioning in gold futures and across the yield curve.
The Fed’s Dual Mandate
1. Maximum Employment: Support jobs and minimize unemployment.
2. Stable Prices (2% inflation target): Prevent runaway inflation or deflation.
The Fed balances these goals using interest rates:
• Raising rates: Cools demand, strengthens the dollar, lifts yield, weighs on gold.
• Cutting rates: Stimulates demand, weakens the dollar, lowers real yields, supports gold.
The tension lies in the trade-off: controlling inflation often hurts employment, while boosting employment risks higher inflation.
Gold and Monetary Policy
Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation):
• Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, dollar strength, gold struggles.
• Dovish Fed: Lower real yields, weaker dollar, gold rallies.
However, given the recent surge in gold prices despite higher rates, traders must ask:
• Will gold continue rising as odds of rate cuts increase, and when they are eventually delivered?
• Is the traditional correlation between the dollar and gold futures prices breaking down?
Gold’s rally has also been driven by geopolitical tensions and rising long term yields, reflecting rising debt burdens across the globe.
Yield Curve and Monetary Policy
The yield curve reflects expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy.
• Short end (1M–5Y): Anchored by Fed policy rates. If markets expect hikes/cuts, the front end moves first.
• Long end (10Y–30Y): Driven by expectations for long-term inflation, growth, and Treasury supply/demand dynamics.
Typically, investors and market participants watch for the following patterns:
• Inverted curve: Short yields > long yields, often a recession signal. See last year’s yield curve.
• Steepening curve: Usually follows Fed cuts, as front-end yields drop faster than the back end.
Two Classic Scenarios
Scenario 1: Inflation Stays High, Jobs Weaken
• Fed resists cutting, prioritizing price stability.
• Gold: Consolidates or weakens (real yields elevated).
• Yield curve: While the short end stays pinned, long end could rise on higher inflation risk and increasing debt worries, signaling stagflation risk.
Scenario 2: Inflation Stabilizes, Jobs Weaken
• Fed pivots dovish, prioritizing employment.
• Gold: Breaks higher on falling real yields.
• Yield curve: Steepens as short yields fall faster than long yields.
The Policy Backdrop
Powell’s last symposium before his term ends, at the Jackson Hole appearance, Fed Chair Powell delivered a dovish pivot, highlighting rising risks to the labor market while downplaying the inflationary effects of tariffs. The reasoning behind this shift deserves its own deep dive, but for now, our focus remains squarely on how monetary policy, specifically interest rate decisions, impacts inflation, growth, supply, and demand in the U.S. economy.
What’s on the Docket Until the Next Fed Meeting (September 17, 2025)
Markets will be glued to data in the coming weeks:
• Aug PCE / Core PCE (Aug 28–29) → Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
• Aug NFP (Sep 5) → Labor market health; weak print strengthens the case for cuts.
• Aug PPI (Sep 10) → Upstream price pressures; hot numbers signal inflation risks.
• Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11) → Key headline data; softer print supports dovish case.
• Fed Decision (Sep 17) → Will Powell stress inflation vigilance, or shift toward labor concerns?
How the Charts Tie It Together
• Gold Futures:
o Ascending Triangle breakout above resistance towards $3,600, if Fed pivots dovish and deliver a rate cut or a bigger rate cut.
o Ascending Triangle breakdown toward $3,350 if inflation remains sticky and the Fed holds. In this scenario, gold remains in balance overall.
• Yield Curve:
o Short end reacts directly to Fed rate expectations.
o Long end reflects investor conviction on inflation, growth and increasing debt concerns.
Takeaway for Traders
The Fed’s dual mandate creates a constant push and pull between inflation control and employment support. Gold and the yield curve are two of the clearest real-time mirrors of that balancing act:
• Watch short-term yields and gold to gauge how markets are pricing the Fed’s next move.
• Watch the long end of the curve to see whether investors believe inflation is truly anchored.
By linking economic data → Fed mandate → asset price response, traders gain a roadmap that works not just for this Fed meeting, but for every one that follows.
In our next educational blog we will briefly explore other policy tools used by the Fed i.e., QE and QT. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening.
FRED:FEDFUNDS ECONOMICS:USINTR
CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1!
CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1!
Gold Bulls Eye Breakout, But Caution May Be RequiredI'm seeing a lot of bullish calls for a gold breakout this week, and the contrarian within me suspects this could lead to disappointment over the near term. Even though my core bias is for gold to reach new highs eventually. Today I look at market exposure to gold futures from the commitment of traders report alongside key levels on gold's futures chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index.
Gold Surge: Preparing for a Possible Pullback at Supply ZoneThroughout August, gold has steadily risen in value, experiencing only minor retracements along the way. Currently, the price is approaching a significant daily supply zone, situated at the top of the market. Recent data indicates that non-commercial traders have been increasing their short positions over the past few weeks, hinting at a potential capitulation or liquidation of positions soon. Meanwhile, retail investors continue to push longs, whereas commercial traders remain positioned more neutrally, gradually adding to their holdings. Moving forward, I will closely monitor the next supply zone, as it could present an ideal opportunity to initiate a short position, capitalizing on potential market exhaustion at this resistance level.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
GOLD eases as it tests $3,400, eyes US GDP dataOANDA:XAUUSD was broadly steady after a slight decline during the Asian session on Thursday (August 28), currently trading around $3,385/ounce. Investors will focus on the US GDP data, which is expected to cause significant market movements.
The revised second-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) figure is expected to come in at today (Thursday), with an expected annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.1%, up from the previous reading of 3.0%. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its second-quarter GDP data. The BEA said in its preliminary estimate that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 3%. A downward revision to the GDP data could hurt the dollar and help strengthen gold prices, while an upward revision could have the opposite effect.
Market attention will remain focused on US political tensions and trade war-related news. Following the release of US Q2 GDP data, the trading week will conclude with the release of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and could influence market sentiment regarding a September rate cut.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has not been able to break above $3,400 after two sessions of testing, and it is currently retreating slightly from this level with a possible short-term target of $3,371, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point, as this is the closest support level currently.
Although gold may fall in the short term, it has also achieved the initial conditions for a possible increase, namely the price action maintained above the EMA21 followed by the RSI maintaining above the 50 mark but the slope is not significant, indicating that the upward momentum is not too strong.
As mentioned to readers, gold is in a sideways accumulation trend, while achieving some of the above short-term bullish conditions. Once gold breaks through the $3,400 mark, it will have the conditions to open a new bullish cycle, with the target then being around $3,430 to $3,450.
During the day, the technical outlook is more inclined towards short-term bullishness, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: $3,371 – $3,350
Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 – $3,450
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3430 - 3428⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3434
→Take Profit 1 3322
↨
→Take Profit 2 3316
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
GC - Gold Re-Testing The L-MLH - Short AheadFirst we crack the L-MLH.
Then we got a test and now the re-test.
On a close outside the fork it's a present to short wit stops above somewhere the wicks high.
Profit at the orange Centerline (PTG1) and at the Red Centerline. All in all a wonderful trade with a decent risk/reward.
And if the train leaves without us, NO FOMO please §8-)
GOLD falls nearly $20, as Dollar recovers and market quietSummary: OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply in Asian trading on Wednesday (August 27), after rising sharply in the previous session. Prices are currently trading around $3,374/oz, down nearly $20 on the day.
OANDA:XAUUSD is retreating from a two-week high near $3,400/oz after hitting that high on Wednesday morning. However, concerns about the Federal Reserve's autonomy and the latest U.S. tariff threats could ease the downward pressure on gold.
The US Dollar TVC:DXY rebounded on Wednesday, putting pressure on gold prices. However, the dollar's gains appeared to be limited by concerns about the Federal Reserve and tariffs.
OANDA:XAUUSD may be buying lower as investors look to buy on dips. Gold prices had earlier surged to a two-week high on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook, shaking investor confidence in the Fed's independence and boosting demand for safe havens.
Additionally, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that U.S. President Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technologies and semiconductors in retaliation for other countries imposing digital services taxes on U.S. tech companies. Trump’s recent trade brinkmanship has reignited tariff uncertainty among U.S. trading partners. Earlier this month, shortly after concluding negotiations with dozens of partners on tariffs targeting specific countries, Trump announced new tariffs on a range of imported products. Last week, he said he would impose new tariffs on imported furniture.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has yet to reach its upside target at the $3,400 base level, but has come under some pressure as it approaches this level and has declined in early trading today. Spot gold is currently trading at $3,376, close to the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. After breaking above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, this Fibonacci level now acts as the closest technical support, below which gold could retest the 21-day EMA at around $3,350.
As mentioned to readers throughout the past publications, the overall trend of gold is still in a sideways accumulation phase. This is shown by the fact that RSI is hovering around 50, showing that the market sentiment is still hesitant in terms of momentum. When gold has enough conditions for a long-term trend, I will update readers quickly, but currently in the short term, gold has some technical factors supporting the possibility of price increases, with support at Fibonacci 0.236% and EMA21 and RSI above 50.
However, short-term open positions should still be prioritized during this period of sideways accumulation, along with the notable points that will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD
Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3430 - 3428⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3434
→Take Profit 1 3322
↨
→Take Profit 2 3316
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
Gold Update 26AUG2025: Bullish Confirmation Above $3,534 The gold futures price has made a U-turn as it didn't trigger Triangle's invalidation at $3,300
This bounce back could be a harbinger of wave 3 within the larger degree wave 5
It will be confirmed once upmove breaks above the top of wave 1 beyond $3,534
I erased the complex correction scenario as the price might be taking off right now
I added the breakdown of the upcoming large wave 5 into smaller 5 waves inside
Target range remains intact between $3,900 and $4,300
GOLD spikes after Trump's move, with technical conditionsOANDA:XAUUSD surges after Trump's move, US President Donald Trump decided to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations that she falsified mortgage records. The news affected the US Dollar index to fall sharply in early Asian trading on Tuesday (August 26), while spot gold prices rose nearly 35 dollars.
On Monday evening local time, US President Trump posted a letter to Federal Reserve Governor Cook on the social media platform Truth Social, stating that he would remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook from his position, effective immediately.
Trump stated in the document: "By virtue of the authority vested in me under Article II of the United States Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, as amended, I hereby order to immediately remove Mr. Cook from his position on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Given Mr. Cook’s fraudulent financial conduct and potential criminal conduct, I have no confidence in his integrity.
At the very least, these actions expose his serious negligence in financial dealings and call into question his competence and credibility as a financial regulator.”
“The American people must have full confidence in the integrity of those who set policy and oversee the Federal Reserve,” Trump said. “Given his fraudulent and even criminal conduct in financial matters, they cannot have that confidence, and I have no confidence in his integrity.”
The move comes after the U.S. Justice Department said it plans to investigate Cook after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte filed criminal charges alleging possible mortgage fraud.
Bloomberg News reported that the investigation is the latest in a series of moves by the Trump administration to increase regulatory scrutiny of Democratic figures and put pressure on the Federal Reserve.
TVC:DXY Falls Sharply, Gold Price Spikes Nearly $35 in Short Term
The US Dollar Weakens Against All Major Currencies After Trump Fires Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Bloomberg said Trump's move has undermined people's confidence in the US Dollar, the world's reserve currency.
Cook’s departure is bad for the Dollar as it opens the door for President Trump to appoint a new governor who may be more inclined to cut interest rates. This further challenges the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the cornerstone of the Dollar’s safe-haven status, and this could lead to further sell-offs in the Dollar, and of course, gold, which is directly correlated to the Dollar, will receive support from this.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold briefly surged above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level after the news but has now pared its intraday gains back below the said Fibonacci retracement level.
However, it is also achieving the initial technical conditions for a bullish outlook in the short term with price action above the EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving above 50, an RSI above 50 with some significant slope would be a reliable signal for momentum support.
In terms of the overall technical picture, gold has not yet established a specific long-term trend with a sideways accumulation state that has lasted for the past few months, depicted by the green rectangle.
Therefore, short-term trades are preferred in the current technical context, and the key points for this trading day are listed below.
Support: 3,350 – 3,310 – 3,300 USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3407 - 3405⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3411
→Take Profit 1 3399
↨
→Take Profit 2 3393
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
XAUUSD Strong 1D MA100 rebound. Buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within an Ascending Triangle since its April 22 All Time High (ATH). Shortly after it solidified a Higher Lows trend-line as its Support with a 1D Body Candle Resistance Zone, limiting any upside break-out.
Last Wednesday it hit and rebounded on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the 2nd time in 1 month, showing strong resilience and the presence of a short-term Demand Zone. The last Lower High contact was made a little above the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level. This gives us a 3420 short-term Target, which is marginally below the Resistance Zone.
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Market revolves around FED and Trump, GOLD is limitedFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday was the focus of market attention this week.
Powell's unexpectedly dovish remarks reinforced market hopes for a September rate cut. As a result, the US Dollar Index fell sharply on Friday, reversing the upward trend of the first four trading days of the week. Moreover, Friday's strong gains also pushed gold prices to a nearly $36 surge for the week.
On Friday (August 22), the US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices soared due to dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at future rate cuts in his highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole central bank's annual symposium, saying a rate cut "may be necessary" if conditions warrant. While he did not promise a rate cut, Powell said changes in the risk landscape could require adjustments to the Fed's policy guidance.
“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market indicators allows us to be cautious as we consider changes to the stance of policy,” Powell said Friday. “However, changes in the baseline outlook and the balance of risks may make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy while policy remains within its narrow range.”
The remarks attempted to strike a delicate balance, acknowledging rising risks to the job market while warning that inflation pressures remain. Powell also stressed on Friday that policymakers must guard against persistent inflation risks from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. He said the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was “now evident,” but there was reason to expect the effects would be relatively short-lived.
Following Powell’s speech, the US dollar fell sharply, gold prices jumped and the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note fell 10 basis points to 3.69%.
Powell’s comments also highlighted the importance of jobs and inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on September 16-17.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a September rate cut.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has recovered from $3,310, which is the first support point in the $3,310 – $3,292 area noted by readers in last week’s weekly edition. However, the temporary recovery is still limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which if gold breaks above this level with price action above $3,371, it will be eligible for further upside with the next target around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430 – $3,450.
Overall, gold is still in a sideways technical state as depicted inside the green rectangle. In case of a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, the downside momentum could also be limited by the $3,246 level followed by the $3,228 level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement price point. The relative strength index hovering around 50 also shows the market's indecision, it does not give any reliable signal whether the trend is bullish or bearish in terms of momentum.
Looking ahead, gold is primed for a short-term rally, with a break above $3,371 a necessary condition for a new short-term rally, with the following key points to watch.
Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3405 - 3403⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3409
→Take Profit 1 3397
↨
→Take Profit 2 3391
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3325
→Take Profit 1 3327
↨
→Take Profit 2 3333
Get ready for the week's highlights, track negotiations progressOANDA:XAUUSD prices remained generally stable, in the Asian trading session on Friday (August 22), OANDA:XAUUSD fell slightly to $3,328/oz, equivalent to a decrease of $10 on the day as of the time of writing, extending the sideways accumulation.
The focus of the week, Jackson Hole
Gold continues to consolidate, with selling pressure holding back gains around $3,350/oz. Market participants await fresh messages from policymakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Today (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.
If Powell says we will cut rates again in October, November or December, the dollar could weaken and gold could have a chance to rise.
Exclusive Reuters report, tracking the progress of the Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations
Reuters has published an exclusive report in which three sources close to senior Kremlin leaders told Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine abandon the entire Donbas region in the east, abandon its ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and prevent Western troops from entering Ukraine.
Last Friday, Putin met with President Trump in Alaska for the first summit between the United States and Russia in four years.
According to Reuters sources, the nearly three-hour closed-door talks between the two sides were almost entirely devoted to discussing a compromise solution to the Ukraine issue.
Standing next to Trump after the meeting, Putin said the meeting was expected to pave the way for peace in Ukraine, but neither Putin nor Trump revealed the specifics of the discussions. Reuters cited the most detailed Russian account yet of Putin’s proposal for the summit, outlining the outlines of a potential peace deal the Kremlin hopes to see.
According to Russian sources, Putin has made some concessions based on territorial demands he made in June 2024. At that time, he asked Kyiv to give up four regions that Moscow claims as part of Russia: Donetsk and Luhansk (located in eastern Ukraine, collectively known as the Donbas region), as well as Kherson and Zaporizhia in the south.
Reuters also reported that Putin maintained in his new proposal a demand for a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbass regions it still controls. However, they added that in return, Moscow would halt its frontline offensive in Zaporizhia and Kherson.
According to US estimates and open-source data, Russia controls about 88% of the Donbas region and 73% of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.
Sources said Putin also maintained his previous demands that Ukraine abandon its NATO membership bid and demanded that the US-led NATO make a legally binding commitment not to expand eastward, impose restrictions on the Ukrainian military and reach an agreement ensuring that no Western troops would be deployed as peacekeepers in Ukraine.
There remains a wide gap between the two sides’ positions. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has yet to respond to the proposal.
Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has been moving sideways for most of the time, so the technical structure has not changed much and the positions are also kept the same as in the previous publications sent to readers.
During the day, the technical outlook of gold price accumulation sideways will be noticed by the positions listed below.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3380
→Take Profit 1 3368
↨
→Take Profit 2 3362
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
GOLD eases after recovering from $3,310, data highlightsOANDA:XAUUSD edged down in Asian trade on Thursday (August 21), after a strong rally in the previous session. The current price is around $3,337/ounce, down 0.32% and around $10 on the day.
OANDA:XAUUSD edged up on Wednesday. Bloomberg News analyzed that US President Trump's call for the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Tim Cook has raised fresh concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, boosting safe-haven demand and causing gold prices to rise.
On the other hand, Bloomberg also reported on Wednesday (August 20) that as gold prices have soared, the illegal gold trade has become one of the largest and fastest-growing illicit economies in the Western Hemisphere, and the U.S. government is facing pressure to step up its crackdown.
According to a report released by the Financial and Corporate Transparency Alliance (FACT) on Wednesday, the boom in illegal gold mining and trading in some South American countries has become a crisis that the United States cannot ignore.
In Colombia and Peru, two major cocaine-producing countries, illegal gold is estimated to generate more revenue for organized crime than the drug trade itself.
The Washington-based financial advocacy group has called on Congress to pass legislation to address the environmental and social impacts of illegal gold mining.
The rise of the illegal gold trade is due to a tripling of gold prices over the past decade and weak law enforcement as authorities remain focused on fighting drug trafficking.
In terms of the day’s data highlights
S&P Global will release preliminary figures for the US manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August today (Thursday). This important report could have a significant impact on the direction of gold prices.
Economists expect the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August to be 49.5, compared to a final reading of 49.8 in July.
In addition, the preliminary reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI for August is expected to be 54.2, compared to a final reading of 55.7 in July.
The July services PMI was 55.7, and if August data shows a sharp decline, the US Dollar could be negatively affected immediately.
On the other hand, if the manufacturing PMI recovers above 50 and the services PMI approaches July levels, the US Dollar could remain strong against other currencies, making it difficult for gold to regain its upward momentum.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After receiving support from the $3,310 level, which is the support that readers have been paying attention to throughout the publications during this time, gold has recovered but the upside momentum has also been limited after testing the EMA21 line. Gold is under pressure from the EMA21, temporarily falling slightly but it may retest the $3,310 level in the short term as there is no more notable support than this level at present, followed by the full price point of $3,300.
Personally, I still maintain the view that gold will continue to move sideways and wait for a strong enough fundamental impact to change the overall technical structure.
The factors that show that gold is neutral are that it has not yet achieved the conditions for a long-term trend line, the sideways state is depicted by the green rectangle. Next is the price action clinging to the 21-day moving average, followed by the RSI moving around the 50 level, showing that the market sentiment is also hesitantly neutral without leaning to any particular side.
During the day, the technical outlook of gold price accumulation sideways will be noticed by the positions listed below.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3380
→Take Profit 1 3368
↨
→Take Profit 2 3362
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
Gold Technical Outlook Heading Into Powell's Jackson Hole SpeechIt is without a doubt that Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is THE event of the week, and possibly the biggest of the month and quarter. That brings the potential for safe-haven flows into gold as we veer towards this key event. I take a look at gold futures market exposure and key levels for gold futures.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com