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Gc1!!
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Golden Crossroads at 4,246.86Executive Summary (1D & 4H Timeframes):
Gold is at a critical juncture. The daily chart reveals a battle between a dominant Head and Shoulders top pattern and a potential Elliott Wave 4 corrective pullback. The neckline at 4,220 is the line in the sand. A decisive break below confirms the H&S pattern, targeting 4,150. However, the 4H chart shows consolidation above this level, with the 200-EMA (4,235) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement providing immediate support. The RSI is bearish but not oversold, suggesting room for a move in either direction. The overarching trend from the last major low remains intact until 4,220 gives way.
Swing Trading Strategy (4H/Daily):
BEARISH SCENARIO (Below 4,220 ): Sell on a confirmed break and close below 4,220. Initial Target: 4,180 (H&S Measured Move). Final Target: 4,150. Stop Loss: 4,265 (above recent swing high).
BULLISH SCENARIO (Above 4,265 ): A hold above 4,235 (200-EMA) and a break above 4,265 invalidates the immediate bearish structure, targeting a retest of 4,300. Buy on a bullish reversal candle above 4,235. Stop Loss: 4,210 .
Intraday Trading Plan (1H/30M/15M):
SHORT SETUP: Look for price rejection at the 4,255 - 4,260 resistance zone (aligned with 4H VWAP and 50-EMA) with bearish candlestick confirmation (e.g., Bearish Engulfing). Sell Entry: 4,255. Target 1: 4,240. Target 2: 4,225. Stop Loss: 4,268.
LONG SETUP: Only valid if price holds above 4,235 and shows strength. A bounce from 4,235-4,240 with a bullish candle (Hammer, Bullish Engulfing) offers a long opportunity. Buy Entry: 4,238. Target 1: 4,255. Target 2: 4,265. Stop Loss: 4,225.
Key Market Drivers & Alerts:
Geopolitical & Macro Watch: Monitor USD strength (DXY) and real yields. Any escalation in global tensions could trigger a safe-haven rush, invalidating technical bearishness.
Indicator Cluster: The convergence of the 200-EMA, Fibonacci support, and the H&S neckline creates a high-probability zone for the next significant move.
Final Word:
The path of least resistance is bearish below 4,220. Intraday traders can fade rallies towards 4,255-4,260, while swing traders await the decisive break. Always manage risk; a close above 4,265 flips the script to bullish.
Trade safe and follow the price action. Like and follow for continued high-quality analysis!
GOLD sets new record amid global risk waveSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to break out in the Asian trading session on Thursday morning (October 16), hitting a record high of $4,239.07/ounce, as investors increasingly sought the precious metal as a safe haven from increasingly complex fluctuations in the global economy.
In the previous session, gold closed at $4,207.85/ounce, up $65.94 (equivalent to 1.59%), and continued to increase by more than $25 today. Since the beginning of the week, gold prices have increased by nearly 5%, continuing a strong upward trend since mid-August.
The rise in gold prices comes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it will maintain its easy monetary policy path. Speaking this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “on track” to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% later this month, in response to signs of weakening growth and external uncertainty. Lower borrowing costs typically increase the appeal of non-yielding gold compared to bonds and currencies.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have added to the market’s tension. Responding to a reporter’s question about trade relations with China, Mr. Trump said: “Yes, we are in a trade war right now.”
This statement, quoted by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about long-term damage to the global economy, a factor that often drives capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown and the “downdraft effect” when investors simultaneously sell bonds and foreign currencies to switch to holding gold and safe-haven assets, further strengthening the precious metal’s price increase.
Strong central bank gold buying has also played a significant role in the rally. Personally, I believe that much of this year’s rally has been “driven by physical demand”, as many central banks “aggressively add to reserves to hedge against sovereign debt risks and expansionary monetary policies”.
So far, gold prices have risen more than 60% in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in global investment thinking, where gold has once again asserted its central role as a source of financial confidence in times of political and monetary uncertainty.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Spot XAUUUSD continues to maintain a strong uptrend, currently trading around $4,239/ounce, up nearly 0.75% on the day and approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $4,213 – $4,286, corresponding to the top of the short-term rising channel.
Trend Structure
• The medium-term uptrend remains solid, with a series of steadily rising candles and the MA50 maintaining a strong upward slope, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
• The uptrend channel remains effective, with prices currently hovering at the upper boundary of the channel, indicating that the buying momentum is too strong in the short term.
• The RSI remains above 70, indicating a technically overbought state, but there is no clear reversal signal yet; this usually signals a slight correction before the uptrend continues.
Key Technical Zones
• Resistance: 4.286 (0.786 Fib) and 4.378 (100% extension target).
• Support: 4.162 (0.5 Fib), 4.059 (old confluence – dynamic support), further 3.947 (balance).
Intraday Scenario
• The main trend remains bullish, but the risk of a short-term correction increases as prices approach the Fibonacci resistance zone.
• Day traders can wait for a buyback around $4,160 – $4,180, the confluence between the 0.5 Fib and the midline of the rising channel, where bottom-fishing buying is likely to emerge.
• The short-term target is $4,280 – $4,300/oz, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel.
• Technical stop-loss should be placed below $4,050 (psychological support and short-term MA).
Overview
Speculative money still dominates, but the market is showing signs of needing a “technical breather” to consolidate the new price base. In the context of the Fed easing signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, the main uptrend of gold is not yet threatened, but short-term trading should prioritize the strategy of buying on corrections instead of chasing high prices.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4298 - 4296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4302
→Take Profit 1 4290
↨
→Take Profit 2 4284
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4144 - 4146⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4140
→Take Profit 1 4152
↨
→Take Profit 2 4158
GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown.
As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting.
Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion.
The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November.
The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal.
Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle.
Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening.
Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness.
If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control.
• Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction.
Important levels on the chart
• Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378.
• Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA).
Short-term scenario & warnings
• Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060.
• Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility.
Risk Management
• Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility.
• Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest.
The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4246
→Take Profit 1 4234
↨
→Take Profit 2 4228
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4141
→Take Profit 1 4153
↨
→Take Profit 2 4159
How High Will Gold Go? It Depends on the DollarThe inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is evident. Interestingly, we observe that when the dollar falls, gold rises—but the magnitude of gold’s increase is often greater than the dollar’s decline.
As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up.
From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up.
From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up.
And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up.
With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential.
Conversely, when the dollar increases, gold declines by almost the same magnitude.
Apart from de-dollarization, what are the other reasons dollar will face more headwinds?
There are three elements
• Existing debt,
• more money printing and
• tariffs,
All these 3 elements are not going to go away anytime soon, as long as the debt continue to rise, more money to be printed and more tariffs impose, dollar downtrend is likely to continue. When dollar is down, gold is up.
And these trends did not happen recently. It is taking shape over the past decades with a lower dollar, we can see how nicely the trends have seated on its historical troughs and peaks forming the channel for the dollar, and also in the gold over the decades.
This tutorial video version:
Mirco Gold Futures and Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Update 15OCT2025: RSI Hints at CorrectionGold continues to dominate headlines, printing new all-time highs one after another
The 4-hour Bearish Divergence earlier failed to halt the rally
Now, a Bearish Divergence has appeared on the daily time frame, as the latest price high was not confirmed by RSI
This signals that a peak may be forming
A corrective phase could soon unfold as wave 4 within the larger wave (5) structure
The expected retracement could reach the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci zone of wave 3 of (5), targeting the pink box between $3,700 and $3,900
The low of the previous minor wave 4, near $3,958, may serve as initial support during the pullback
It is worth noting that the magnitude of wave (5) so far mirrors that of the prior large wave (3)
Therefore, the projected target for the final wave 5 of (5) remains around $4,300 as a conservative objective
However, if momentum extends further, wave 5 could evolve into an extended move and drive prices toward new record highs beyond that level
Surpassing the $4,100 mark amid trade tensionsOANDA:XAUUSD rose sharply in the first session of the week, surpassing the 4,100 USD/ounce mark, a new record high, as investors sought refuge in the context of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, along with expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to start a cycle of interest rate cuts.
Earlier, in the trading session on Monday, Spot Gold increased by 2.34% to 4,110.30 USD/ounce, reaching an intraday peak of 4,117.27 USD, massive speculative money flows into the precious metal as global political and trade uncertainties continue to dominate.
Some investors believe that gold can easily maintain the current upward momentum, thanks to a combination of central bank buying, ETF inflows and expectations of Fed policy easing.
US-China tensions spark safe-haven buying
Gold prices accelerated after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China and plans to control strategic software exports from November 1, a move seen as a response to Beijing's restrictions on exports of key minerals.
Although Trump assured on social media that "everything will be fine", the market still saw this as the start of a new round of escalation in the trade war.
The risk of additional 100% tariffs is still an unpriced variable and of course all risks are a lucrative bait for gold prices to continue to develop positively.
Fed Moves Closer to Taper Cycle
Expectations for Fed easing continue to underpin non-yielding gold. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October, and a 100% chance of a cut in December.
Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual conference on Tuesday, which is expected to provide further clarity on the path of monetary policy during this delicate period. A host of other Fed officials are also due to speak this week, as global financial markets react strongly to signals from Washington.
Gold Price Outlook: Long-Term Uptrend Strengthened
According to the latest forecasts, Bank of America and Société Générale both see gold prices surpassing $5,000 an ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its 2025 target to $4,488.
Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, said:
“The current rally still has room to run. A short-term technical correction could be a positive signal for a more sustainable uptrend.”
Finally, with trade tensions yet to ease and global monetary policy easing, gold continues to consolidate its position as a strategic haven asset in the current period of economic and geopolitical volatility.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Main trend:
Gold continued its strong uptrend, closing around 4,142 USD/ounce, still within the main uptrend channel.
Resistance: 4,162 – 4,213 – 4,286 USD
Support: 4,100 – 4,060 – 4,000 USD
RSI > 75 shows extremely strong buying momentum, but short-term overbought, a technical correction may appear.
Overview:
The medium-term uptrend remains intact, the next target is towards $4,300, as long as the price holds above $4,000.
RSI warns of short-term fluctuations, prefer buying on corrections rather than chasing prices.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4200 - 4198⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4204
→Take Profit 1 4192
↨
→Take Profit 2 4186
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4113 - 4115⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4109
→Take Profit 1 4121
↨
→Take Profit 2 4127
XAUUSD Looking for a quick relief pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Up supported by its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern.
This Bullish Leg has completed a +4.45% rise, almost similar to the first two of the pattern. They both pulled back to their respective 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels after the Higher High, so as long as the pattern's top holds, we expect a quick correction to $4055 (Fib 0.382).
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 13 - Oct 17]During this week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continuously set new record highs, surging from $3,884/oz to as high as $4,059/oz, before closing the week at $4,011/oz.
Although the fundamental factors supporting gold’s uptrend remain solid, many analysts have expressed concerns about the possibility of a gold sell-off, similar to what occurred in 2011, as investment demand for gold has skyrocketed in recent months. According to data from the World Gold Council, global investment demand for gold-backed ETFs surged by 221.7 tons (worth nearly $26 billion) in the third quarter. This strong inflow pushed total ETF gold holdings up by nearly 2%, approaching the all-time high recorded in 2020.
Moreover, within just one trading session following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, about $1.5 trillion in U.S. stock market capitalization was wiped out, while the crypto market also lost roughly $280 billion. This raises concerns that investors might start taking profits on their gold positions—which are currently showing strong gains—to cover losses in stocks and cryptocurrencies.
However, mounting fiscal pressure, rising public debt, and waning confidence in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, along with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and Trump’s recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, continue to support gold prices in the near term.
For the upcoming week, gold prices are likely to fluctuate between $3,850/oz and $4,150/oz.
📌In terms of technical analysis, on the short-term chart H1, it is necessary to pay attention to 2 resistance levels: the resistance level around 4059, and the support level 3945. Next week, the gold price will continue to maintain its upward momentum when the 4059 level is broken. In case the price trades below the 3945 level, the gold price may be sold off, causing the price to adjust to around 3850.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
• Nearest resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top zone that needs to be overcome to extend the upside momentum.
• Next resistance:
o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232,
o Level 0.5 at $4,320,
o And the 0.618 extension zone at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum.
• Short-term support:
o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support).
o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4098 - 4096⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4102
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3908 - 3910⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3904
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish! IRL To ERL! Look For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Oct. 13-17th.
Gold is bullish on all HTFs. Selling is not an option. Moving from IRL to ERL. Only buys are valid.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Global economic data faces disruptionThe trading week from October 11 to 17 is expected to be highly volatile as the U.S. government shutdown could delay the release of key economic data such as CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation trends ahead of its upcoming policy meeting. Throughout the week, investors will focus on major events including the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, the NATO Defense Summit, and the G20 press conference.
Central banks like the Fed, ECB, and RBA will continue to shape market sentiment through speeches and meeting minutes, while China, OPEC, and the Eurozone will release crucial data on trade, inflation, and energy—potentially triggering short-term volatility across global markets.
Three key risks will dominate this week: escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, central bank communications that could shift interest rate expectations, and the potential resurgence of trade wars dampening global risk appetite. In this environment, safe-haven assets such as gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury bonds are likely to attract capital inflows, while equities and commodities may face downward pressure.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• After a short-term correction to around $3,950/oz, gold prices rebounded and closed above $4,000 – confirming the recovery momentum in the main uptrend.
• The main trend remains strong, supported by:
o The MA20 is clearly sloping up.
o RSI remains above 60, not yet giving an overbought signal.
o The uptrend channel is still maintained, the daily candle closed near the top – showing overwhelming buying power.
Key Technical Zones
• Nearest Resistance: $4,059 – this is the short-term top that needs to be overcome to extend the upside.
• Next Resistance:
o Fibonacci level 0.382 at $4,232,
o Level 0.5 at $4,320,
o And the 0.618 extension at $4,408 – potential targets if gold maintains the current momentum.
• Short-term Support:
o $4,000 (strong psychological zone – now turned from resistance to support).
o Deeper support at $3,896 – $3,871, coinciding with the confluence of MA20 + previous correction bottom.
Summary
• Gold is basically in an uptrend (Wave 3) with strong momentum and no RSI divergence signal yet.
• As long as the price holds above $3,950, the uptrend remains dominant.
• If there is a decisive breakout above $4,059, the next target will be the $4,230 – $4,320 zone in the short term.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4076 - 4074⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4080
→Take Profit 1 4068
↨
→Take Profit 2 4062
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 4002⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3996
→Take Profit 1 4008
↨
→Take Profit 2 4014
Gold at Historic $4,000+ Peak - Bullish Momentum IntactXAUUSD Technical Forecast: Gold at Historic $4,000+ Peak - Bullish Momentum Intact
Asset: XAUUSD (Gold) | Closing Price: $4,018.46 | Bias: Bullish above key support, targeting new highs. 11th Oct 2025 UTC+4
1. Multi-Timeframe Market Structure & Key Levels
Primary Resistance: $4,050 - $4,080. This is the immediate target and minor resistance zone. A break above opens the path to $4,120 and beyond.
Critical Support: $3,980 - $4,000. This psychological and previous resistance-turned-support zone is crucial. A break below shifts bias to neutral.
Major Swing Support: $3,950 (Confirmed by 4H chart structure). A break below this level would indicate a deeper correction towards $3,920.
2. Chart Pattern & Elliott Wave Context
Pattern: Gold is in a powerful, near-vertical uptrend on the daily chart, trading in uncharted territory above $4,000. This is a classic momentum-driven breakout.
Elliott Wave Count: The move from the September lows is a clear impulsive Wave 3 extension. We are likely in the later stages of Wave 3, with a Wave 4 correction expected soon. However, Wave 3 can extend further, so fading this trend is premature.
Bull Trap Risk: Low in the immediate term. The sustained buying pressure and higher lows suggest genuine breakout strength, not a trap.
3. Indicator Confluence & Momentum
Ichimoku Cloud (Daily): Price is soaring high above the Kumo (cloud), indicating an extremely strong bullish trend. The cloud is far below, providing a strong support base.
RSI (14): On the daily chart, the RSI is in overbought territory (>70), which is typical for strong momentum moves. It can remain overbought for extended periods. Divergence is not yet present.
Moving Averages: The 50 EMA (~$3,940) and 200 EMA are bullishly aligned far below the current price, confirming the long-term uptrend. No "Death Cross" is in sight.
Bollinger Bands (4H): Price is consistently riding the upper band, a sign of exceptional strength. Any pullback would likely find initial support at the middle band (20-period SMA).
Actionable Trading Plan
Intraday Trading (1H/15M Charts)
Bullish Continuation Setup:
Trigger: Price holds above $4,005 and breaks $4,030.
Buy Entry: On a retest of $4,015-$4,020 as support, or a break of $4,032.
Stop Loss: Below $3,995.
Targets: $4,050 (TP1), $4,070 (TP2).
Bullish Dip-Buying Setup:
Trigger: A pullback to the $3,990 - $4,000 support zone.
Buy Entry: On a bullish reversal candle (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) in this zone.
Stop Loss: Below $3,980.
Targets: $4,030 (TP1), $4,050 (TP2).
Swing Trading (4H/Daily Charts)
Long Swing Entry:
Condition: The trend is your friend. Any dip is a potential opportunity.
Entry Zone: $3,980 - $4,000.
Stop Loss: Below $3,950 (on a daily close).
Target: $4,100+.
Swing Trade Management: Consider taking partial profits at $4,050 and $4,080, then trailing your stop for the remainder to capture any parabolic move.
Conclusion & Risk Note
Gold is in a historic breakout. While overbought, the momentum is undeniable. The strategy is to buy supported dips rather than chase at the absolute top. The $3,980 level is the line in the sand; a break below would signal the first sign of weakness and a potential for a deeper Wave 4 correction. Until then, the path of least resistance is higher.
Gold 4h Potential Short Confluence🔱 Just wanted to highlight this confluence 🔱
The yellow L-MLH and white U-MLH are lining up to form a potential short setup.
Today’s selling pressure is also giving an early warning signal.
If we open and close below the white U-MLH, we’ll likely retest it before any major drop.
Shorting this move will require a decent stop, given the inherent volatility. So maybe a play with an Options Strategy would be a more secure way.
Let’s see if the party finally takes a breather.
GOLD corrects as US announces ceasefire agreementSpot OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply by nearly $30 in early Asian trading on October 9, to around $4,012 an ounce, after news of a historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was confirmed.
Markets reacted quickly to US President Donald Trump's announcement that the two sides had signed the first phase of a Washington-brokered peace plan. All hostages would be released and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza according to an agreed roadmap. Trump described it as "the first step towards a lasting and sustainable peace in the Middle East", and thanked Qatar, Egypt and Turkey for their role in mediating.
Bloomberg reported that the deal was signed in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt), after several rounds of tense negotiations. According to the agreement, Hamas will release about 20 living hostages and return the remains of more than 20 dead people, while Israel will free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The comprehensive ceasefire took effect from 12:00 noon Cairo time, with guarantees from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.
In the short term, the sudden improvement in global risk appetite following this news is the main reason for the decline in gold prices. Investors shifted to higher-yielding assets, while the recent hot rally pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, triggering short-term profit-taking.
The previous day, gold prices had surpassed the $4,059 mark per ounce, a new record high, thanks to increased safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and loose monetary policy. However, news from the Middle East has temporarily reversed the trend, showing the high sensitivity of gold to geopolitical developments in the current uncertain period.
Outlook: Investors will closely monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the reaction of the US bond market in the coming days. If risk sentiment continues to improve and yields increase slightly, gold may temporarily correct before establishing a new accumulation zone around the $4,000/ounce threshold.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
• Trend: Gold remains in the ascending channel formed since August 2025, with a higher peak-to-trough structure.
• Short-term resistance: 4,044 /SD (Fib 0.382) and the $4,110–$4,180 zone (Fib 0.5–$0.618). This is an important resistance zone in the short term.
• Nearest support: $3,955 (Fib 0.236), followed by the $3,870–$3,900 zone, coinciding with the MA21 line.
• RSI: Remains above 70, indicating overbought conditions and the possibility of a technical correction before further increases.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4092 - 4090⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4096
→Take Profit 1 4084
↨
→Take Profit 2 4078
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3985 - 3987⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3981
→Take Profit 1 3993
↨
→Take Profit 2 3999
Has Gold Reached Its Fullest Potential?Has gold reached its fullest potential? It depends on the US dollar.
As we can see when dollar declines, gold went up.
i) From 2001 to 2011, when dollar was down, gold went up.
ii) From 2017 to 2020, when dollar was down, gold went up.
iii) And from 2022 to current, when dollar is down, gold is up.
With de-dollarization, this also means gold may have more upside potential.
Mirco Gold Futures and Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold will retraceThe last move of Gold hasn't made a good base, and 3600 is the price it may find that base to retrace and retest.
GOLD surpasses $4,000, political risks and Fed rate cutOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in Asian trading on Wednesday morning, hovering around $4,006/ounce, approaching a record high. The gains were fueled by the risk of a US government shutdown, global political uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease monetary policy soon.
The US government shutdown has entered its second week, delaying many key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. This lack of information increases the level of uncertainty about monetary policy and forces investors to predict the direction of the Fed based on market signals rather than data.
According to CME FedWatch, traders are now pricing in an 84% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. The market is also pricing in a high probability of another cut in December.
The turmoil in the US government coupled with weak economic signals is reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status, especially in the context of a weak US dollar and volatile stock markets.
Alongside monetary policy, geopolitical risks are also playing a key role in sustaining demand for the precious metal.
In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu unexpectedly resigned just hours after taking office, raising concerns about the budget crisis and financial stability in the eurozone.
Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s victory in the ruling party leadership election has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its easing policy for longer, thereby supporting gold prices.
In the currency market, the US dollar index (DXY) recovered slightly to around 98.7 points, but the upward trend was limited by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.12%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset.
If the non-farm payroll data after the government reopening shows a slowdown in job growth, investors believe this will further strengthen expectations of a new easing cycle by the Fed, thereby creating more momentum for gold to move towards the $4,100/ounce mark in the short term.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend analysis:
• Gold prices have been in a strong uptrend since mid-August, with a series of dense green candles and stable buying pressure.
• Currently, the price has surpassed the psychological level of 4,000 USD/ounce, closing the day above this level, showing that buyers are still in control of the market.
• The EMA50 (blue) continues to slope up, reflecting that the medium-term trend is still very positive.
• RSI remains above 70, signaling a mild overbought condition, but there is no clear bearish divergence signal, meaning that the uptrend still has room to run.
Important technical zones:
• Nearest resistance: $4,044 (0.382 Fibonacci level).
• Extended resistance: $4,113 and $4,182 (0.5 and 0.618 Fib) – potential targets for the next bullish wave.
• Short-term support: $3,959 (0.236 Fib) – important support zone for intraday recovery.
• Stronger support: $3,896 – $3,871, which coincide with the previous top and the lower edge of the rising channel.
Note:
• RSI is approaching the overbought zone, so a short-term technical correction may occur before continuing to increase.
• If the price closes below $3,950, be cautious of the possibility of a short-term recovery wave.
The main trend of gold is still strong, reinforced by technical factors and the macro context. In the short term, the $3,960 area is a potential buying point, with targets towards $4,110 - $4,180.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4038 - 4036⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4042
→Take Profit 1 4030
↨
→Take Profit 2 4024
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3974 - 3976⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3970
→Take Profit 1 3982
↨
→Take Profit 2 3988
GOLD hits new peak with global crisisSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in Asia on October 7, approaching the all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, amid global markets rocked by political turmoil in the US and Europe.
Gold had earlier gained 1.9% in the first session of the week, reaching $3,976.25 an ounce, despite a stronger US dollar and high US bond yields.
In Washington, the budget impasse continues to drag the US government into a second week of shutdown. Both spending bills proposed by Democrats and Republicans failed to pass the Senate.
The shutdown is costing the US economy about $15 billion a week, or 0.1 percentage point of GDP, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. If it lasts a month, the consequences could be 43,000 jobs lost and as much as $30 billion in lost spending.
The lack of economic data due to the shutdown has also made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the situation and make decisions on interest rates. However, the market is still pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% this month, a factor that is seen as a strong support for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset.
In Europe, things were less calm. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned just hours before a new cabinet was to be announced, deepening the political deadlock and threatening efforts to rein in the budget deficit in the country with the highest debt in the eurozone.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of Sanae Takaichi becoming the new Prime Minister has also made investors cautious, as monetary policy and public spending may continue to be loosened.
Gold prices have increased by nearly 50% this year, supported by the Fed's interest rate cuts, a wave of gold purchases from central banks, and escalating global geopolitical tensions, once again affirming the precious metal's position as the "last refuge" of the international financial market.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Main Trend
• Gold prices are in a strong and sustainable uptrend, as shown by:
o The price line is firmly above the medium-term MA line, with a clear positive slope.
o The uptrend channel (parallel trendline) has not been broken yet, and prices continue to remain within the upper zone of the channel.
o RSI remains above 60, indicating that buying power is still dominant.
Important zones
• Strong resistance: 4,000 USD/oz, this is a major psychological level, also coincides with the Fibonacci 0.236 zone.
• Near support: around 3,895 – 3,870 USD/oz, which is the confluence of the lower edge of the rising channel and the old peak zone.
Note
If the price breaks decisively above $4,000 with high volume, the target can be extended to the $4,280 – $4,405 zone.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 3998⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4004
→Take Profit 1 3992
↨
→Take Profit 2 3986
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3919 - 3921⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3915
→Take Profit 1 3927
↨
→Take Profit 2 3933
GOLD: Buyers In Control! Fundamentals Support Higher Prices!Pre-Market analysis for Tuesday Oct 7, 2025
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Gold Bullish Momentum: Layering Longs For Maximum Gain!🏆 XAU/USD | The Gold Robbery Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade)
🎯 Plan Setup (Bullish)
Entry (Layering Style):
Using the Thief Layer Strategy 🕵️♂️ → Multiple Buy Limit layers
$3625
$3630
$3635
$3640
(Add more layers based on your own strategy & risk appetite)
Stop Loss (Thief SL):
@3610 (Adjust based on your own strategy & risk ⚠️)
Take Profit (Escape Point):
Target resistance zone @3690 🚪💰
⚡ Note: This is a flexible thief-style plan — adjust SL/TP levels as per your personal money management and execution style.
📊 Why This Plan? (Thief’s Market Analysis)
🔎 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025)
Price: $3,643.71
24h Change: +0.48%
Range: $3,620.90 – $3,644.56
🧠 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian Signal)
Long: 37%
Short: 63%
➡️ Retail crowd is heavily short → Contrarian bullish setup.
🏦 Institutional Sentiment (Commitment of Traders)
Net Long: +249,530 contracts
Long: 315,796
Short: 66,266
➡️ Institutions are firmly positioned long ✅
🌡️ Fear & Greed + Volatility
Neutral (shifting from Greed)
VIX <14 (52-week low) → Calm market backdrop
📉 Macro & Fundamentals
US jobs data: Weak (22K vs. 75K expected)
Fed rate cut probability: 99.4% (September meeting)
Central bank gold demand + geopolitical tensions supportive
Upcoming CPI/PPI = key catalyst
📐 Technical View
Price holding above $3,625 support
Ascending channel continuation
Overbought zone = caution for short pullbacks
🗝️ Key Takeaways (Thief OG Notes)
USD weakness + Fed dovish tilt = Gold tailwind
Retail shorts = bullish contrarian setup
Institutions backing the move higher
Short-term overbought → manage exits smartly
🔥 Related Markets to Watch
OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver)
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index)
SP:SPX (S&P 500)
TVC:US10Y (US 10Y Treasury Yield)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD (Bitcoin correlation check)
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Fundamentals #ThiefStrategy #TradingPlan #GoldBulls #MacroAnalysis #MarketSentiment
XAUUSD made new ATH. What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) gave us an excellent buy signal last week (September 29, see chart below), easily hitting our 3860 upside Target:
This time, the price is extending the Bullish Leg of the 3-week Channel Up, which according to the 1H RSI, should peak soon. The last two did so on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
That should take us to 3970, which would be right at the top of the Channel Up (Higher Highs). A 1H RSI Lower Highs rejection would be the sell signal, targeting the 1H MA100 (green trend-line), like both previous Bearish Legs did, at 3900.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading ForecastXAUUSD (Gold) Technical Analysis & Trading Forecast
Current Price: $3,886.75 | Date: October 4, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4
Executive Summary
Gold is trading at historic levels above $3,880, reflecting strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential monetary policy shifts. The asset is currently testing critical resistance zones while maintaining bullish momentum across multiple timeframes. Both intraday and swing traders should monitor key technical levels for optimal entry and exit strategies.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading)
Gold has experienced significant appreciation in 2025, with the current price action suggesting a continuation of the long-term uptrend that began in late 2022. Monthly charts reveal:
Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold appears to be in Wave 5 of a major impulse sequence, targeting the $4,000-$4,200 zone based on Fibonacci extensions from previous wave structures.
Ichimoku Cloud (Monthly): Price is trading well above the cloud with bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, confirming strong trend strength. The cloud ahead remains thin, suggesting limited resistance until $4,050.
Gann Analysis: Using the Square of 9 methodology from the 2020 low ($1,450), the current price aligns with the 315-degree angle, projecting next major resistance at $4,015 (360-degree completion) and $4,180 (next 45-degree increment).
Key Weekly Support/Resistance Levels:
Major Resistance: $3,920, $4,015, $4,180
Primary Support: $3,850, $3,765, $3,680
Critical Support: $3,580 (weekly 50 EMA)
Daily Chart Analysis
Candlestick Patterns: The recent price action shows a series of bullish engulfing patterns following pullbacks, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels.
Wyckoff Analysis: The current phase suggests we are in a re-accumulation schematic, with recent consolidation between $3,850-$3,920 representing a potential spring or test before continuation to higher targets.
Harmonic Patterns: A bullish Gartley pattern completed at $3,765, projecting targets at $3,950 (0.618 retracement) and $4,050 (1.272 extension).
RSI (Daily): Currently at 68, approaching overbought territory but not yet extreme. Historical analysis shows gold can sustain RSI above 70 for extended periods during strong trends.
Bollinger Bands: Price is riding the upper band, with bandwidth expansion indicating increasing volatility. The middle band at $3,820 serves as dynamic support.
Moving Averages:
20 EMA: $3,842 (immediate support)
50 EMA: $3,765 (critical support)
200 EMA: $3,580 (long-term trend confirmation)
Golden Cross remains intact with 50 EMA well above 200 EMA
Intraday Trading Strategy (Next 5 Trading Days)
4-Hour Chart Setup
Current Structure: Gold is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance at $3,920 and rising support trend line from $3,765.
VWAP Analysis: Anchored VWAP from October 1st stands at $3,872. Price trading above indicates bullish control. Volume profile shows high volume node at $3,860-$3,870, serving as magnetic support zone.
Scenario 1 - Bullish Breakout:
Entry: Break and close above $3,920 on 4H chart with strong volume
Target 1: $3,965 (measured move from triangle)
Target 2: $4,015 (Gann resistance)
Target 3: $4,050 (Harmonic target)
Stop Loss: $3,875 (below VWAP and triangle support)
Risk/Reward: 1:3
Scenario 2 - Retracement Play:
Entry: Pullback to $3,850-$3,860 zone with bullish reversal candle
Target 1: $3,900
Target 2: $3,920 (triangle resistance)
Stop Loss: $3,830 (below 20 EMA on 4H)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.5
1-Hour Chart Tactical Levels
Immediate Resistance Zones:
$3,900-$3,905 (prior consolidation area)
$3,920-$3,925 (major resistance cluster)
$3,950 (psychological level)
Immediate Support Zones:
$3,872-$3,875 (VWAP & prior resistance turned support)
$3,860-$3,865 (high volume node)
$3,850 (minor swing low)
RSI (1H): Currently 58, neutral zone with room to move higher. Watch for bullish divergence on pullbacks.
Bollinger Bands (1H): Price oscillating between middle and upper band. Squeeze conditions suggest potential breakout imminent.
15-Minute & 5-Minute Scalping Strategy
Best Trading Sessions: London open (08:00-12:00 UTC+4) and US open (15:30-19:30 UTC+4) for highest volatility and volume.
Entry Criteria:
Price must be above 15-min 50 EMA for long entries
RSI pullback to 40-50 zone followed by bullish momentum surge
Volume confirmation (above 20-period VWMA)
Scalping Levels (Valid for next 5 days):
Buy Zone: $3,875-$3,885 (quick 10-15 point targets)
Sell Zone: $3,915-$3,925 (if rejection occurs)
Stop Loss: Maximum 20 points ($200/contract)
Target: 15-25 points ($150-$250/contract)
Pattern Recognition: Watch for bull flags on 15-minute chart during uptrends as continuation patterns, typically resolving within 3-6 candles.
Swing Trading Strategy (1-4 Week Horizon)
Primary Swing Setup - Long Position
Entry Strategy:
Preferred Entry: $3,850-$3,870 on any weekly pullback
Aggressive Entry: Current levels with wider stop
Conservative Entry: Wait for daily close above $3,920
Position Sizing: Allocate only 30-40% of capital initially, scaling in at lower levels if opportunity presents.
Target Zones:
Target 1: $4,015 (15% position exit) - Gann resistance
Target 2: $4,180 (35% position exit) - Elliott Wave projection
Target 3: $4,350 (30% position exit) - 1.618 Fibonacci extension
Runner: Hold remaining position with trailing stop
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: $3,765 (below daily 50 EMA)
Move to breakeven once Target 1 is reached
Trail stop at previous week's low as price advances
Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:4 from current levels
Alternative Swing Setup - Counter-Trend (Higher Risk)
Entry Trigger: Daily close below $3,850 with increased volume
Short Entry: $3,840-$3,850
Targets: $3,765 (T1), $3,680 (T2)
Stop Loss: $3,920
Note: Only consider if clear reversal pattern forms (bearish engulfing, head and shoulders). Current trend remains bullish.
Pattern & Theory Analysis
Elliott Wave Count
Primary Count:
Wave 1: $1,810 to $2,150 (2023)
Wave 2: $2,150 to $1,990 (correction)
Wave 3: $1,990 to $3,200 (extended wave)
Wave 4: $3,200 to $2,960 (complex correction)
Wave 5: $2,960 to current (potentially targeting $4,200+)
We appear to be in sub-wave 5 of larger Wave 5, suggesting final leg of impulse move approaching.
Harmonic Patterns
Completed Patterns:
Bullish Gartley (completed at $3,765)
Bullish Bat pattern (completed in September at $3,680)
Potential Forming Patterns:
Bullish Butterfly pattern developing with D point potential at $3,750 if retracement occurs
Wyckoff Market Phases
Current analysis suggests Phase D (markup) of re-accumulation schematic. Characteristics observed:
Signs of Strength (SOS): Strong rallies from $3,765 to $3,920
Last Point of Support (LPS): Recent test at $3,850-$3,860
Backup to the edge of creek: Minor pullbacks quickly bought
This suggests institutional accumulation continues with further upside likely.
Gann Time & Price Projections
Time Cycles: Significant Gann time windows approaching:
October 7-9, 2025: 90-degree square from previous major low
October 15-18, 2025: 180-degree opposition, potential reversal or acceleration point
Price Squares:
Square of current price ($3,886) suggests natural resistance at $3,969 (square root progression)
Gann angles from September low project resistance at $3,985
Ichimoku Analysis
Daily Ichimoku:
Price above all cloud components (strongly bullish)
Tenkan-sen (9): $3,868
Kijun-sen (26): $3,845
Senkou Span A: $3,810
Senkou Span B: $3,765
Cloud Interpretation: Thick bullish cloud below price provides strong support cushion. Future cloud remains green, suggesting trend continuation expected.
Trap Scenarios
Bull Trap Risk:
If price breaks above $3,920 but fails to hold and reverses below $3,880 within 24 hours with high volume, this could signal a bull trap
Probability: Low (15-20%) given current fundamental backdrop
Bear Trap Watch:
Any sharp drop below $3,850 that quickly reverses above $3,870 could trap bearish traders
This would likely accelerate the next leg higher
Probability: Moderate (35-40%) if pullback occurs
Volume & Momentum Analysis
Volume Profile:
High volume acceptance between $3,800-$3,900
Point of Control (POC): $3,865
Low volume area above $3,950 suggests potential for rapid movement if breached
VWAP Signals:
Price consistently holding above daily VWAP indicates institutional buying
Weekly VWAP at $3,820 serves as strong support for swing positions
Volume volatility increasing suggests preparing for significant move
RSI Across Timeframes:
5-min: 52 (neutral)
15-min: 58 (bullish lean)
1H: 58 (bullish lean)
4H: 64 (approaching overbought, still healthy)
Daily: 68 (strong but not extreme)
Weekly: 71 (overbought but sustainable in strong trends)
Moving Average Analysis:
All major EMAs in bullish alignment (20>50>200)
No death cross signals on any timeframe
Price trading above 20 EMA on all timeframes except 5-min (normal intraday oscillation)
Market Context & External Factors
Fundamental Backdrop
While this is primarily a technical analysis, traders should be aware that gold's current strength reflects:
Geopolitical tensions that may be supporting safe-haven demand
Central bank policies and potential monetary easing cycles
Currency fluctuations particularly USD weakness
Inflation concerns that typically support precious metals
Key Events to Monitor (Next Week)
Federal Reserve speakers: Any dovish commentary could propel gold higher
Geopolitical developments: Escalation or de-escalation affects safe-haven flows
Economic data: Employment figures, inflation reports can trigger volatility
Dollar Index movements: Inverse correlation with gold typically strong
Recommended Approach: Maintain stop losses below technical support levels regardless of fundamental views. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent.
Risk Management Guidelines
Position Sizing
Intraday Trades:
Risk 0.5-1% of account per trade
Maximum 2-3 concurrent positions
Respect maximum daily loss limit of 2% account value
Swing Trades:
Risk 1-2% of account per position
Scale in across multiple entries if possible
Limit total gold exposure to 10-15% of portfolio
Stop Loss Discipline
Non-Negotiable Rules:
Always set stop loss before entering position
Never move stop loss further from entry (only toward profit)
Exit immediately if stop is touched - no exceptions
If stopped out twice from same level, wait for new setup
Profit Taking Strategy
Systematic Approach:
Take partial profits at first target (never wrong to take profit)
Move stop to breakeven after Target 1
Trail stop using previous swing lows (intraday) or daily lows (swing)
Never let winner turn into loser once breakeven is reached
Trading Plan Summary
For Intraday Traders (Next 5 Days)
Primary Focus: Watch for breakout above $3,920 or pullback to $3,860 support zone
Best Times to Trade: London and US session opens for maximum liquidity
Key Levels:
Resistance: $3,920, $3,950, $4,000
Support: $3,875, $3,860, $3,850
Recommended Strategy: Buy dips near support with tight stops, or breakout trades above resistance with momentum confirmation
For Swing Traders (1-4 Weeks)
Primary Outlook: Bullish continuation toward $4,000-$4,200 zone
Optimal Entry: Any pullback to $3,850-$3,870 represents opportunity
Position Management: Scale in across multiple entries, scale out across multiple targets
Major Resistance: $4,015 (Gann), $4,180 (Elliott Wave)
Critical Support: $3,765 (daily 50 EMA) - break here invalidates bullish setup
Conclusion & Final Recommendations
Gold remains in a strong uptrend across all major timeframes with technical indicators supporting further appreciation. The current consolidation near all-time highs is typical behavior before the next leg higher. Both intraday and swing traders have clearly defined opportunities with favorable risk/reward ratios.
Confidence Level: 75% probability of testing $4,000+ within next 2-4 weeks based on technical confluence
Preferred Strategy: Buy dips with defined risk, scale out into strength
Critical Warning: Any daily close below $3,765 would damage the bullish structure and require reassessment
Next Major Update: October 11, 2025, or immediately following any significant technical breakout/breakdown
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading. The author is not responsible for any trading losses incurred based on this analysis.
Next Update: October 11, 2025
Analysis Valid Through: October 18, 2025
Prepared using advanced technical analysis incorporating Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, Gann, Harmonic Patterns, Ichimoku, and modern momentum indicators.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Options Traders Display Caution As Gold Bulls Gun For $4000With gold trading less than $120 from the $4,000 milestone, it would be rude not to test that key level. While market positioning suggests a move beyond it is possible, options traders appear to be bracing for higher volatility — or even a pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
