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Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
XAUUSD Has confirmed a new Bullish Leg towards SeptemberGold (XAUUSD) held the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) clear and last week make a strong 1W green reversal candle. The 1D MA100 is the metal's most crucial long-term Support and the last two times it made contact with (February 12 2024 and November 13 2023), new Higher Highs where made. Right now the price is coming out a consolidation (blue Rectangle) similar to the one that ended on February 12 2024 and was a Higher Low on the (dashed) Channel Up. The minimum % rise of a Bullish Leg within the long-term (blue) Channel Up has been +15.26%. As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 keeps supporting, we will be bullish, targeting 2600 (a little below the +15.26% mark). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD → Pre-breakdown structure, but NFP is ahead. ↑ or ↓ ?FX:XAUUSD is updating the high within consolidation after rallying. Technically, this is a good sign, but NFP and unemployment are ahead. The news could either reinforce the move or completely derail it.... A nice bullish pattern is forming on D1 against resistance at 2365. The deceleration and consolidation in front of the level indicates bullish interest in further growth. But today it is worth paying attention to the fundamental background. From this point of view, the outlook for gold depends on the upcoming news and the reaction of the Fed. Based on previous data, traders expect Friday's employment report to show only 189K new jobs compared to 270K in the previous month, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. But the actual data plays a bigger role. Rising unemployment and slowing economic growth may support the gold, as the dollar may continue its localized decline on this background. But, unpredictable data can increase the volatility and affect the market structure in a very opposite way. Resistance levels: 2364. 2387 Support levels: 2355, 2350, 2341 Technically, on D1-H4 gold shows bullish prerequisites, but the economic component plays a big role, which can both support the current movement and reverse it up to liquidation and decline to 2340-2320. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
21
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]On Friday (June 21), when data released by S&P Global showed that US PMI data for June were generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03 U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday. • Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3. • The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8. • The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices. Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move. About the Fed this past week Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week. • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years. • Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month. • Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects. • St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut. • New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process. • Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high. • Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: US new home sales index Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure. Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD. In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below. Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend. The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above. In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETFOANDA:XAUUSD falling rapidly again after recovering in yesterday's trading session, the current drop is around 9$ on the day to below 2,330$ and reported at the time of publication to be finished at 2,325$ or down 0.40%. . Investors are looking forward to US inflation data later this week, which could influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The data focus this week is on Friday's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is "about" to reach an inflection point and that further weakness will mean a rise in unemployment. Daly's comments showed she was leaning towards a dovish stance, adding: "Inflation is not the only risk we face right now." Four other Fed officials are being closely watched, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, who are expected to speak this week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. According to Bank of America, China Gold ETF continued to see capital inflows, increasing by 253 million USD. This is the 6th consecutive month of capital inflow. China's gold ETF purchases have been driven by stock market weakness, a depreciating local currency and falling bond yields, with holdings now at a record high. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), market forces still appear to provide a solid foundation as about 20 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings next year. Bank of America said China's physical market was slightly weaker but remained generally supportive, with jewelry sales continuing to hover near seasonal highs. Likewise, China's domestic market prices are still higher than international prices. Another notable piece of data is that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that as of the week of June 18, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased by 11,984 lots to 189,533 lot. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is declining after recovering and approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the closest technical resistance on the daily gold price chart. . Although gold has declined, the price decline has not brought price activity below the price channel, the short-term trend price channel, this means gold still has support factors from the lower edge of the price channel and the technical level of 2,324 USD. comments to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold still has bullish conditions, the lower edge of the price channel produced a significant recovery yesterday and now if it breaks below gold could face further sell-off. same target around 2,305 – 2,300USD, so open long positions should be protected after the price channel breaks below. During the day, gold still has a technical upside prospect with notable positions being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD Price Rides High on Fed Speculation as Market Awaits Datas🟡 The price of gold is riding high on the back of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, a trend that is gaining momentum during the US Independence Day holiday. This bullish rally is likely to see exaggerated movements due to low market liquidity and repositioning by traders ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data set to be released on Friday. As gold continues its upward trajectory, we have identified a significant supply area where price movements could see a reversal. Over the past decade, this particular period of the year has consistently shown a bearish seasonality for gold prices. This historical trend suggests that despite the current bullish momentum, a downturn may be on the horizon. In preparation for this anticipated shift, we are setting a pending order in the supply area with the intention to short gold in the near future. This strategy aims to capitalize on the expected seasonal decline, leveraging the supply area's historical significance and the current market dynamics influenced by Federal Reserve policies and upcoming economic data. Our analysis indicates that while gold's bullish rally may continue in the short term, the confluence of historical seasonality and key economic data releases presents a compelling opportunity for a well-timed short position. By closely monitoring these factors, we aim to optimize our strategy and maximize potential returns as market conditions evolve. ✅ Please share your thoughts about XAU/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD → From rally to consolidation. Rest before NFP...FX:XAUUSD strengthens on the back of Powell's comments. Light positive notes lead to DXY sell-off and a small rally of XAU to 2364. Today is a day off in the US and tomorrow is NFP..... It's a day off in the US and there is no liquidity. There may be high volatility during trading, but the movements may be weak. Locally, the price is testing resistance and liquidity area. Within a strong distribution there are not many chances to break through the mentioned area. Most likely the formation of a correction, and local bearish patterns appear on the chart, which may lead to a correction in order to gather energy before tomorrow's NFP. Resistance levels: 2364, 2375 Support levels: 2353, 2341 Technically, a false breakout after distribution is forming. There is no potential to go up now. High probability of correction or consolidation. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
5
GOLD → A change in mood amidst the comments and newsGOLD is testing the previously broken channel boundary. The market maker is driving the price into the liquidity area before the strong news. Powell corrected the direction a bit within yesterday's speech The chance of a September interest rate cut rises after Fed Chair Powell acknowledged progress on disinflation. Jeremy reverses course slightly to dovish. Markets are awaiting the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting (due later today) to get more information on the Fed's next steps. The regulator needs more data before it can start cutting rates. Data from the US labor sector is also in focus: All eyes now turn to ADP's US employment change report after JOLTS showed a rise in job openings on Tuesday. The next important event for the gold price remains the minutes of the June 11-12 Federal Reserve meeting, which could shed light on the central bank's outlook on rates and inflation, having a significant impact on the value of the U.S. dollar and the gold price. Resistance levels: 2346, 2352, 2363, 2380 Support levels: 2341, 2328, 2319 Technically, we have buyers appearing on the local change of fundamental background. The bulls are winning within the consolidation. There is a possibility of strengthening, but we should pay attention to the news.... Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
8
GOLD has rising technical conditions, geopolitical risksDespite the increase in the US Dollar and US Bond Yields, spot gold prices still increased by nearly 32 USD in yesterday's trading day, currently reported at about 2,360 USD/ounce. Data released by the US on Thursday showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US in the week to June 15 was 238,000, compared to the previous forecast of 235,000. The number of new homes built in the US in May fell to the slowest level in four years as rising interest rates weakened the housing sector's growth momentum earlier this year. Data showed new home construction in the US fell at an annual rate of 5.5% in May, compared with expectations for a 1.1% increase. In addition, the total number of construction permits in the US in May was 1.386 million, lower than the expected level of 1.45 million. Data last week showed labor market and price pressures were easing, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. According to data from CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders currently see about a 64.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving up gold prices. Rising geopolitical risks have fueled gold's bullish trend. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to attack Lebanon. Combined with the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea through President Putin's state visit, this could increase the appeal of gold as it increases geopolitical risks in the region. , is currently trading near key resistance levels reported to readers in yesterday's edition. Gold is still rising on safe-haven demand as global geopolitical threat levels rise again and global powers move troops on the global strategic chessboard. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is temporarily limited by key resistance that readers noticed in yesterday's edition after gold moved above the EMA21 level and broke out of the price channel. The current $2,364 technical level is the nearest notable resistance and once it is broken gold has the wherewithal to head for a new bull run with a near-term target of $2,400 raw price. On the overall technical picture, gold is technically well positioned to rally with the nearest support noted by the EMA21 level, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,345 technical point as previous resistance for now. is to become support. During the day, gold's technical outlook supports the possibility of price increases with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2400 - 2398 ⚰️SL: 2404 ⬆️TP1: 2393 ⬆️TP2: 2388 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → 2319 keeps the market from falling, but for how long?FX:XAUUSD GOLD is still consolidating within the local range of 2340 - 2320, which is formed after breaking a strong trend line support. The dollar index is still heading northward Gold is still unable to break downside resistance, as well as forming price consolidation below previously broken support. The key risk zone on which the bulls put so much is 2319-2320. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below this line may trigger a rally to 2290-2275. All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech today at 13:30 GMT The recent rise in gold prices can be attributed to lower US Treasury yields as traders resort to profit taking ahead of important US events. ISM, FOMC, NFP are ahead, but the fundamental background for gold is still weak and buyers do not believe in upward movement yet. Resistance levels: 2332, 2341 Support levels: 2319, 2306, 2297 Technically, a bearish pattern is developing on the senior timeframe, unless Powell says something unpredictable today, the general background will remain the same, which will be favorable for further price decline to these areas. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
20
GOLD → Countertrend correction or consolidation before a fall ↓FX:XAUUSD has been updating the local minimum since the opening of the session and confirms the bearish nature of the market. The price is heading towards the area of interest and liquidity before a possible decline Today the focus is on the news: S&P PMI, ISM. Traders are expecting relatively warm data, but, at the moment, everything revolves around the perception of inflation news regarding the inflation itself in the Fed's further view on monetary policy. High volatility is possible. Technically, on D1 gold is trading in bearish territory and at the moment, after updating the local low, the price is heading towards the liquidity zone, from which the sell-offs may increase. There is a possibility that before further decline the price may go deeper, for example, to test the imbalance area, as well as the previously broken channel boundary (liquidity capture). Resistance levels: 2332, 2341, 2346 Support levels: 2325, 2315, 2306 It is possible that the situation may change, as traders are overreacting to inflation-related news, but at the moment, on the high timeframe is formed exclusively bearish setup on the negative fundamental background. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
23
Gold & Silver Build Momentum Into A New Rally PhaseAre you following my videos/research? If not, pay attention. Gold and Silver will start to build momentum over the next few weeks - eventually moving 5 to 12% higher before mid-September. This is a huge move for metals and will prompt Gold to attempt a rally toward $2750 while Silver attempts to rally above $32 - possibly targeting $34. The dynamics of the global markets and the pending US POTUS elections will continue to drive global traders harder into precious metals as a hedge. Nothing has changed. The only thing that is new and taking place right now is the pause in metals is nearing an end point - which means we shift into bullish trending again. Get ready - here we go (BULLISH)
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny