GenneralMills Earnings play —$50C Don’t miss outGIS Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-09-16)
Summary (quick take)
Consensus from the model set: mixed. Two models (Gemini, Llama) favor buying the $50 call around $0.85 into earnings; two models (Grok, DeepSeek) either prefer puts or no-trade; Claude is neutral/no-trade. The single highest‑probability edge is management’s historical tendency to guide conservatively and beat (8/8 beats, ~6% avg surprise). That creates a contrarian asymmetric upside if GIS merely meets or slightly beats low expectations. Options flow, technicals and recent sell-side commentary (RBC warning) are the main contrarian imperfects.
My read: probability-weighted view favors a modest bullish earnings outcome. I will therefore recommend a single‑leg buy of the $50 call (expiry 2025-09-19) at the quoted ask $0.85 — using only strikes/premiums provided in the OPTIONS DATA. This is a tactical earnings play with tight risk controls.
1) Full earnings prediction analysis using your four-pillars framework
A. Fundamental earnings drivers
Revenue momentum: TTM revenue -3.3% — clear top-line weakness. Negative for directional upside.
Margins: Gross 34.6%, operat..
