DAX (Germany 40) Technical Outlook | Trend Continuation🇩🇪 DAX 40 (Germany 40) Index CFD — Day/Swing Trade Blueprint 📊💼
💡 MARKET SETUP — Current Price: €24,539 | Status: BULLISH PULLBACK CONFIRMED ✅
📈 TECHNICAL THESIS — SMA Pullback Strategy in Uptrend
The DAX 40 remains embedded in a controlled uptrend with price holding above key moving average support. After a brief pullback from record highs near €25,507 (Jan 13 peak), the index is consolidating between €24,300–€24,600 support zone and is primed for the next liquidity sweep northbound.
Key Technical Confluences:
🎯 Simple Moving Average (SMA) Support — Price respecting 50/200 SMA alignment
🎯 Pullback Validation — Higher lows being held on every dip
🎯 Volume Profile — Acceptance above €24,500 confirms buyer conviction
🎯 Risk/Reward Setup — Clean 1:2 to 1:3 risk-to-reward available from entry zones
🎪 ENTRY STRATEGY — Thief Trader Method: LAYERED LIMIT ORDERS
Rather than chasing market orders, we use intelligent limit entry layering for superior fill quality 💪
🎯 Entry Tier 1 (Aggressive): €24,300 — Pullback support zone
🎯 Entry Tier 2 (Standard): €24,400 — Mid-zone accumulation
🎯 Entry Tier 3 (Conservative): €24,500 — Breakout confirmation
🎯 Entry Tier 4 (Momentum): €24,600 — Early breakout entry
🎯 Entry Tier 5 (Top-Side): €24,700 — Late breakout re-entry
Pro Tip: Stack positions on each tier, take partial profits at each level, never chase single entry. That's the Thief OG way! 🔥
🚀 PROFIT TARGETS — Liquidity Grab Methodology
TP1: €25,300 — "First Liquidity Grab Completed" 🎯
Level Significance: Captures the first major resistance sweep
Distance from Entry (avg €24,500): +800 pips = 3.27% gain
Action Plan: Lock in 30–40% of position here, move stop to breakeven, let remaining contracts run
TP2: €26,000 — "Final Liquidity Sweep — Exit Complete" 🏁
Level Significance: Captures pending buy-side stops above the January peak
Distance from Entry (avg €24,500): +1,500 pips = 6.12% gain
Action Plan: Exit remaining 60–70% of position
Bonus Target (Advanced): €27,500 (DZ BANK year-end consensus forecast)
🛑 STOP LOSS PLACEMENT — Risk Management First
Thief Trader Stop Loss: €24,000 ⛔
Rationale: Sits 300 pips below primary entry zones; below key support cluster
Risk per Contract: If risking €500, that's ~€150–200 loss per standard lot
Position Sizing: Scale contracts based on your risk tolerance — never YOLO on DAX volatility
⚠️ DISCLAIMER — Risk Ownership: This is YOUR trade, YOUR money, YOUR risk. Only you know your account size and risk appetite. Set your own SL based on your strategy — this is guidance only, not financial advice.
🌍 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH — Multi-Market Confluence 📡
EUR/USD (€1.0750–€1.0900)
Correlation: Direct positive — Weaker euro = cheaper German exports = DAX bullish
Setup: If EUR/USD strengthens toward €1.09, DAX gets export tailwinds
Watch: ECB rate cut signals typically weaken the euro, supporting DAX
EuroStoxx 50 (EU50) — €4,800–€5,000
Correlation: Very high positive — DAX is 30% of EuroStoxx
Logic: If EU50 breaks above €5,000, DAX gets secondary push
Action: Use EU50 as confirmation of DAX strength
Germany/US 10Y Yield Spread (TERSE)
Correlation: Negative — If German bunds rally (yields fall), that signals rate-cut expectations = DAX bullish
Watch Level: German 10Y below 2.20% = risk-off, flight-to-quality scenario favoring equities
Oil Price (WTI/Brent — $70–$85/barrel)
Correlation: Mixed — German manufacturers love cheap energy, but weak oil signals recession fears
Sweet Spot for DAX: Oil €75–€80 = moderate inflation, exporters happy, equities safe
VIX Equivalent (V-DAX) — Volatility Gauge
Current Level: V-DAX around 16–18 = healthy, not panicked
Watch: If V-DAX spikes above 25 = pullback risk, tighten stops; below 14 = complacency building
📊 FUNDAMENTAL & MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS
🔴 RECENT DATA (As of Feb 2, 2026)
German Economic Resilience:
✅ Q4 2025 GDP: +0.3% QoQ (beat expectations) — German economy avoiding recession
✅ Inflation: 2.1% YoY (Jan 2026) — Near ECB's 2% target, gives rate-cut room
✅ Unemployment: Stable at 6.3% — Labor market holding up despite manufacturing softness
✅ Industrial Output: Mixed signals — three consecutive growth months but export weakness noted
📅 UPCOMING CATALYSTS — Mark Your Calendar
🔴 Early Feb — Adidas €1B Share Buyback Launch → Positive momentum boost for blue-chips
🔴 Feb 6 — German Factory Orders (Expected: -0.5%) → Soft = industrial weakness signal
🔴 Feb 7 — German Industrial Production → Weak data could cap upside
🔴 Feb 13 — ECB Rate Decision & Guidance (50% odds of Q1 cut) → CRITICAL for bullish conviction
🔴 Late Feb — Q4 Earnings (SAP, Deutsche Bank, Siemens) → Tech names driving DAX
🔴 Ongoing Risk — Trump Tariff Uncertainty (10–25% on EU goods) → Watch for deal announcements ⚠️
⚠️ KEY RISKS & INVALIDATION LEVELS
Tariff Shock Risk 🚨 — Trump's €93B EU retaliation threat could spark 2–3% gap-down move
Invalidation: Break below €24,000 = thesis broken, exit immediately
Manufacturing Data Miss — Next weak industrial orders could trigger flight-to-safety
Watch: If German factory orders miss by >1%, reduce position size
ECB Hawkish Surprise — Inflation re-acceleration limiting rate cuts
Monitor: Feb 13 ECB guidance; any surprise on rates kills momentum
Geopolitical Shock — Middle East escalation, energy supply disruption
Action: Set alerts at €24,200 (hard support break); have exit plan
💰 RELATED PAIRS & INDICES TO MONITOR — Build Your Watchlist
Auto & Industrial Heavy (DAX Largest Sectors):
BMW | Volkswagen | Mercedes-Benz — Auto bellwethers; watch for delivery/margin guidance
Siemens | Allianz | BASF — Industrial & insurance anchors
Tech Superstars (Momentum Drivers):
SAP (4.19% up on Jan 30) — Europe's largest software name; Q4 earnings Feb 2026 expected strong
Infineon (+2.6% recent) — Chip recovery play; AI power supply demand surge
Deutsche Telekom — Telecom stability play; steady dividend support
Defense & Infrastructure Play (German government capex boost):
Rheinmetall | Hensoldt — Defense spending beneficiary
MTU Aero Engines | Airbus — Aerospace recovery
🎯 TRADER MOTIVATION & MINDSET — Thief OG Philosophy 🔥
"Patience is a hunter's greatest weapon. You don't chase the market—you let it come to you on YOUR terms, with YOUR limit orders, at YOUR price." — The Art of Profitable Trading
Core Principles:
Limit Orders Over Market Orders — Never be desperate for entry; let liquidity sweep to you
Scale in / Scale out — Never all-in, never all-out; manage position dynamically
Respect Your Risk — If you can't afford a €500–€1,000 stop loss, reduce size, not conviction
Trail Your Stops — Once profitable, move stop to breakeven, then chase profit; reduce emotional pain
Ignore FOMO — DAX trades 9 AM–5:30 PM CET, 5 days a week; the trade will always be there
Macro Before Technicals — Check ECB calendar, US data, tariff news BEFORE entering any position
🎤 FINAL WORDS — Professional Trader's Wisdom
The DAX 40 is sitting at a critical juncture — neither euphoric, nor broken. Recent price action shows controlled accumulation, not panic. The setup from €24,300–€24,700 entry cluster toward €25,300–€26,000 targets is textbook risk-to-reward for swing traders.
But here's the truth: Timing is 10%, risk management is 90%. You can have the perfect technical setup, but if you size wrong, set SL wrong, or trade without a plan, you'll lose. Conversely, even a mediocre entry with tight risk management can print money.
So go in with conviction, but trade with discipline. The market doesn't care about your ego—only your P&L.
📋 TRADING CHECKLIST — Before You Click "BUY"
Is today NOT a major ECB/Fed event day? (If yes, reduce size 50%)
Is DAX above its 200 SMA on daily chart? (Confirming uptrend)
Have I set my limit orders at €24,300, €24,400, €24,500, €24,600, €24,700?
Is my stop at €24,000 with position size that I can afford to lose?
Do I have TP1 (€25,300) and TP2 (€26,000) alerts set?
Have I checked the news? (tariffs, ECB, US market overnight)
Is my risk per trade ≤ 2% of my account? (Professional standard)
Do I know what will invalidate this thesis? (Yes → €24,000 break)
If you ticked all boxes ✅ — You're ready to trade like a pro.
Happy Trading! 🎯 Remember: The goal is not to win every trade; it's to keep winning over 100 trades.
🔗 Pairs Mentioned: XETR:DAX | Germany 40 CFD | EUR/USD | EuroStoxx 50 | VIX / V-DAX | WTI Crude Oil
