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PLTR GEX - Bull Flag Breakout SetupPLTR Technical & Options Setup Overview PLTR is setting up a clean bull flag breakout on the daily chart, following a strong impulsive leg higher. The consolidation has been holding above the 50-day moving average , which has acted as dynamic support throughout the flag structure. Two sessions ago price briefly dipped below the 50 SMA, but that weakness was immediately bought, signaling strong dip demand and structural acceptance above this level. From an options perspective, the setup remains supportive. On the Feb 20 (Optimal Monthly) expiration, PLTR shows a Positive GEX Profile . Volatility and skew conditions further strengthen the bullish case: Core Call Pricing Skew is elevated (~36%), indicating persistent call demand Implied volatility remains relatively low, leaving room for price expansion without volatility headwinds Looking ahead, the next major reference is the 200 level , which represents the primary Core Resistance for the Optimal Monthly cycle. Given the compression within the bull flag and supportive options structure, 200 becomes a natural upside objective if the breakout confirms. Structure to watch: 50 SMA – key trend support Bull flag high – breakout trigger Positive GEX – supportive dealer flow 200 – next major upside target (Core Resistance) As long as price holds above the 50 DMA and volatility stays contained, risk remains skewed to the upside, with a measured breakout toward 200 favored.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by TanukiTrade
4
Positive GEX Profile Points Toward 700 Gap FillMETA – Holding Above HVL, 50 DMA Reclaim in Progress, Upside Call Resistance at 700 META is currently trading below the 200-day moving average , but recent price action suggests a potential structural improvement rather than continued weakness. From an options perspective, the broader structure remains Positive GEX , indicating that dealer positioning is still supportive on pullbacks. At the same time, IV remains low , which typically favors range expansion and directional follow-through once key technical levels are reclaimed. On the daily chart, price is now starting to reclaim the 50-day moving average , a level that previously acted as dynamic resistance. Importantly, META is also holding above the High Volatility Level (HVL) , which keeps the short-term regime constructive rather than defensive. Volatility conditions remain favorable: Call Pricing Skew is elevated (~31.6%), showing persistent call demand IV remains controlled, allowing price to move without immediate volatility compression pressure Looking forward, the most important upside call resistance is the 700 level, which represents: Highest core call resistance on the Feb 20 (Optimal Monthly) expiration A major gap fill from the prior breakdown A clear technical resistance zone visible on the daily chart This confluence makes 700 a logical upside target if price can hold above HVL and fully reclaim the 50 DMA. Key structure to watch: 200 DMA – higher timeframe resistance overhead 50 DMA – short-term trend reclaim in progress HVL – holding above keeps structure constructive 700 – primary upside target (gap fill + core call resistance) As long as price holds above HVL with supportive GEX structure, rotational upside toward 700 remains the higher-probability path .
NASDAQ:METALong
by TanukiTrade
2
Protective Put Support Zone & Gap FillAVGO – Breakdown Below HVL, Gap Fill Toward 320, Protective Put Support Zone AVGO is trading in a high-volatility, momentum-driven downside phase , following a clean breakdown below the HVL. The move marks a clear regime shift, as price exited a tight transition zone and accelerated lower with conviction. The downside was well signaled by sustained put-side pressure over multiple sessions, with price repeatedly rejecting from the 50 EMA . Once HVL failed, downside momentum expanded rapidly, consistent with a retail-driven move rather than a controlled dealer-defended range. From an options structure perspective, protective put positioning now defines the next meaningful downside reference. Current positioning shows the next major protective put support clustered around 320 , which also aligns with a clean gap-fill level on the chart. This makes 320 a dual-confluence area: technical gap fill protective put floor where dealer hedging dynamics may begin to dampen downside momentum Until that zone is reached, price is effectively moving through thin structure, where volatility expansion and sharp intraday swings should be expected. Key levels & structure: Below HVL → bearish regime confirmed 50 EMA → repeated rejection, trend continuation signal 320 → primary downside target & potential stabilization zone (gap fill + protective puts) Any stabilization or bounce attempts are more likely to occur only after interaction with the 320 area, not before.
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by TanukiTrade
6
GOOGL GEX & Bullish Decision Point at 320February 20 Expiration – GEX & Options Structure Looking at the February 20 expiration, the options and GEX structure suggests that price is currently sitting at a critical decision zone . Put side The chart shows a clear put support level around 310 . Price has briefly traded through this level, but there has been no strong downside continuation . This keeps the scenario alive that 310 can still act as put support into this expiration. Call side / Decision point The next core resistance is located around 320 . This level represents a bullish decision zone . A clean break and acceptance above 320 could quickly shift dealer positioning. Such a move would open the door for a potential gamma squeeze to the upside. Technical context Since summer, this is already the third similar bull flag structure on the daily chart. The previous two structures resolved to the upside. The current pattern has not yet confirmed a breakout. This makes the 320 level especially important for technical confirmation. Upside scenario If price accepts above 320 , the next logical magnet becomes the next core resistance. Based on daily structure and call wall positioning, this sits around 350 . Volatility & Skew Core pricing skew is currently around +25% , favoring calls. Implied volatility has been compressing for several sessions . This supports the idea that a directional expansion could follow once price resolves this range. Summary 310 = key put support 320 = bullish decision point Acceptance above 320 increases the probability of gamma-driven upside toward higher call resistance levels
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by TanukiTrade
$IWM — The Rate-Cut Leverage PlayLast week delivered one of those classic market paradoxes where everything that should be bearish suddenly became bullish: layoffs → bullish weak labor data → bullish flat inflation → bullish Why? Because the market has now fully locked its focus on one thing only: a Federal Reserve rate cut. Volatility was sharp, price action even sharper, and the headlines kept flipping faster than most traders could adjust. Let’s break down what actually happened — and what matters for the week ahead. IWM GEX for 01/16/2025 expiration using TanukiTrade Options Overlay GRID System and the GEX Profile indicator If the Fed cuts, small caps win the most — and last week proved it again. IWM broke above the 250 call gamma level Short-term gamma squeeze potential Closed at new all-time highs This is where rate-cut optimism expresses itself with maximum torque. If the Fed turns dove on Wednesday → IWM can easily extend.
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
10
06/30 Weekly Gamma Exposure Outlook🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force. 📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall , triggering sharp upside acceleration. We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory. 🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher. 🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225 , with major call resistance near 6200 . 🔍 What Just Happened? 📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout. 💥 Put skew collapsed , suggesting downside hedges are being unwound. 📉 VIX and IV keep dropping , confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment . 🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode . ✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical We're in a bullish gamma regime , so dips are likely to be bought. Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060 . 🛠️ Strategy Ideas: • Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs • Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+ • Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225 ⚠️ Risks to Watch We’re overextended short-term. 🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050 . Bearish signals to monitor: • IV spike or renewed put buying • Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation • Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms 🗓️ Short Trading Week Note 🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day. This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect: 📌 Early week dealer hedging 📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday 💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place 💼 Setup: • Put Butterfly below spot • 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide) • Slight net negative delta , 11 DTE 🎯 Why it works: • Leverages IV backwardation • Profits from time decay • Favors a stable or modestly bullish week • Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14) 💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk. Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨 📌 Final Thoughts: The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant , but big moves often retest before continuing. Let price breathe. Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
7
[06/16] Weekly GEX Roadmap - Diagonal Spreads or Put Hedges?📊 Weekly GEX Map (SPX) This week’s GEX profile looks nearly identical to last week: Positive bias above 6020 up to 6100 But a sticky chop zone remains from 5975 to 6020 Below 5950? That’s where things get interesting… ⚠️ What Happens If 5950 Fails? In that case - welcome to negative gamma territory: Delta becomes unstable → fast, erratic moves Gamma loses influence → hedging effectiveness drops Dealer hedging lags → market makers chase, not lead Vega + theta distort readings → charm decay accelerates Result: GEX zones lose clarity. Pinning breaks down. Reactions become nonlinear and emotional. If we drop below 5950, we might see acceleration instead of stabilization — despite the positive GEX profile. 💡 Trade Idea of the Week – With Caution If not for Wednesday's macro risk (Fed rate decision), I'd suggest a bullish diagonal spread toward 6100–6150: Limited downside Defined risk Covers the full squeeze zone But with FOMC looming, I'd only hold this trade until Thursday and close once the debit doubles or earlier. 🧨 Macro + Geo Risks Fed is priced for “no move” → any surprise = volatility spike Rising tensions with Iran → oil and futures could react violently Recommendation : Avoid OIL this week, especially futures and naked strategies 🛡️ Prefer Downside Protection? If you expect weakness on SPX weekly: Consider a put debit spread with the short leg at 5950, where the second strongest Put Support sits. This type of structure can offer up to 6:1 reward-to-risk, making it one of the most efficient bearish hedges for this week. If you enjoyed the above breakdown, feel free to check out my previous weekly analyses or explore my tools as well. Until next time – Trade what you see, not what you hope, – Greg @ TanukiTrade
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
5
[06/09] [GEX] Weekly SPX OutlookLast week’s outlook played out quite well — as anticipated, SPX hit the 6000 level, closing exactly there on Friday. This was the realistic target we highlighted in last week's idea. 🔭 SPX: The Bigger Outlook It's difficult to say whether the rising SPX trend will continue. We're still in the "90-day agreement period" set by the administration, and so far, the market has shown resilience, avoiding deeper pullbacks like the one we saw in April. With VIX hovering around 17–18, we’ve reached a zone where further SPX upside would require volatility. For the index to continue rising meaningfully, it needs to reverse the current bearish macro environment, and that can only happen with strong buying momentum — not a slow grind. The parallel downward channel drawn a few weeks ago is still technically valid. Even a short 100-point squeeze would fit within this structure before a larger move down unfolds. GEX levels give us useful clues heading into Friday. We're currently in a net positive GEX zone across all expirations, giving bulls a structural advantage, just like last week. As of Monday’s premarket, SPX spot is at 6009.The Gamma Flip zone is between 5975–5990, with a High Volume Level (HVL) at 5985. 🔍 Let’s zoom in with our GEX levels — this gives us a deeper view than our GEX Profile indicator for TradingView alone. 🐂 🟢 If SPX moves higher, the following are logical profit-taking zones: 6050 (Delta ≈ 33) 6075 (Delta ≈ 25) 6100 (Delta ≈ 17) 🎯 Targeting above 6100 currently feels irrational — for instance, the next major gamma squeeze zone is at 6150, but that corresponds to a delta 6 level (≈94% chance the price closes below it), so I won’t aim that high yet. 🐻🔴 In a bearish scenario: 5975 and 5950 are the first nearby support zones (Deltas 30 and 38). If momentum picks up, 5900 becomes reachable quickly, even if it's technically a 17-delta distance — because that’s deep in the negative GEX zone. 📅 Don’t forget: On Wednesday premarket, we’ll get Core Inflation Rate data — a key macro risk that could shake things up, regardless of TSLA drama fading. 📌 SPX Weekly Trading Plan Conclusion Whatever your bias, keep cheap downside hedges in place. We've been rising for a long time, and even if SPX breaks out of the descending channel temporarily, resistance and the gamma landscape may pull price back swiftly.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
6
[05/27] Weekly GEX Outlook for SPX⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market: 📍 Massive upside expectation: It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000. 🛑 Limited downside protection: Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching. 🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930 The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot. Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower. Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail. 🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision. In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this. 🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone. From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈. The details show the same picture when examining more details: SPX conclusion 😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point. Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional. Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
05/05 SPX Weekly Playbook - GEX Zone Outlook🔮 What-If Scenarios for This Week – Based on GEX Structure until Firday Last week’s market momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by almost 3%, effectively erasing the price gap left behind on Liberation Day. The index also strung together nine straight days of gains—something we haven’t seen since late 2004. Meanwhile, implied volatility dropped significantly, with the VIX touching its lowest level since the holiday, falling to around 22.5. Several factors seem to have fueled this bullish tone, including a more measured approach from Trump on trade policies and strong quarterly results from major tech names like Microsoft and Meta. Still, the nature of the buying raises questions—was this a thoughtful rotation, or just a broad sweep of optimism? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔄 Chop Zone: 5650 – 5670 (wide transition zone) 🔹 Gamma Flip: 5615 🔺 Key Call Wall: 5725 (5800 potential shift) 🔻 Key Put Wall: 5500 (5400 major support below) 🔼 Upside Path IF > 5670 → transition cleared → ➡️ 5700 stall / reaction IF > 5725 → call wall breached → ➡️ Path to 5750 / 5775 → stall at 5800 (largest net call OI) IF > 5800 → gamma resistance breaks down → ➡️ 5825/5850 zone opens up 🔽 Downside Path IF < 5615 → gamma flip triggered → ➡️ 5500 = battle zone (massive put wall + high negative GEX) IF < 5500 → negative gamma squeeze likely → ➡️ Stall zone: 5450 → flush to 5400 IF < 5400 → high-volatility regime → ➡️ Possible acceleration to 5375 / 5340 depending on IV spike ⚖️ Neutral Setup IF 5650–5670 holds → dealer hedging = balanced → ➡️ Ideal for non-directional spreads / theta plays ➡️ Wait for breakout confirmation above 5670 or below 5615 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 🔍 Final Thoughts We’ve seen a sharp rally since the Trump trade war scare, with barely any meaningful pullback. The market appears to be looking for one—as a breath. Based on current GEX positioning, there’s significantly more downside hedging than upside, especially in the mid-term May expirations. That doesn’t necessarily mean we crash—but it does mean that moves lower can accelerate faster, while upward breakouts may require more energy or time. In this environment, consider: Bearish or neutral spreads (put debit spreads, call credit spreads) Volatility-based strategies Avoiding naked upside trades unless we see a strong reclaim of 5725+ Stay safe and adapt—GEX doesn’t tell direction, but it does tell where the fire might start, beacuse of reflexting to hedging activity.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade