Exchange Rates: The Pulse of Global Trade1. What Are Exchange Rates?
An exchange rate is the price at which one currency can be exchanged for another. For example, if 1 US Dollar equals 83 Indian Rupees, this rate governs how American imports from India are priced and how Indian exports to the US are valued. Exchange rates are determined by the supply and demand for currencies in the foreign exchange (Forex) market, which is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with daily trading exceeding $6 trillion.
2. Types of Exchange Rates
There are two main types of exchange rates:
Floating Exchange Rates: Determined by market forces of supply and demand. Most major currencies like the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and Japanese Yen (JPY) operate on this system.
Fixed or Pegged Exchange Rates: Set and maintained by governments or central banks. For example, the Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to the US Dollar within a narrow band.
Additionally, there are managed floats, where central banks intervene to stabilize currency volatility without fully fixing it.
3. How Exchange Rates Influence Global Trade
Exchange rates play a pivotal role in determining trade flows:
Export Competitiveness: A weaker domestic currency makes exports cheaper for foreign buyers. For example, if the Indian Rupee weakens against the US Dollar, Indian goods become cheaper in the US, boosting export demand.
Import Costs: Conversely, a stronger domestic currency makes imports cheaper, reducing costs for businesses reliant on foreign raw materials or technology.
Profit Margins: Multinational corporations must account for currency fluctuations in their pricing strategies. Unhedged currency risks can erode profits.
4. The Hidden Secrets Behind Exchange Rate Movements
While exchange rates are publicly quoted, the underlying forces often remain opaque to casual observers. Some key “secrets” include:
Interest Rate Differentials: Countries with higher interest rates attract foreign capital seeking better returns. This capital inflow increases demand for the domestic currency, strengthening it. Traders monitor central bank policies closely because even minor rate changes can trigger significant currency moves.
Trade Balances vs. Capital Flows: Many assume trade balances alone dictate currency value, but capital flows—investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate—often have a larger impact. For instance, even a country running a trade deficit may see its currency appreciate if foreign investors are pouring money into its financial markets.
Speculative Forces: The Forex market is dominated by large banks, hedge funds, and institutional investors. Speculators can create short-term volatility by betting on expected currency movements, sometimes disconnecting exchange rates from economic fundamentals temporarily.
Political Risk Premiums: Exchange rates embed expectations of political stability. Elections, policy changes, trade wars, or geopolitical tensions can prompt sudden currency swings. For example, uncertainty about Brexit led to dramatic fluctuations in the British Pound.
Central Bank Interventions: Some central banks actively buy or sell their currency to stabilize trade competitiveness or control inflation. These interventions are often discreet, making their influence seem almost magical to outsiders. For example, Japan’s Bank of Japan has a long history of intervening in currency markets to maintain export competitiveness.
Currency Pegging Strategies: Some nations deliberately maintain undervalued currencies to promote exports. China’s historical management of the Yuan is a classic case; by keeping the currency artificially low, Chinese exports became cheaper globally, boosting economic growth.
5. Exchange Rate Risks in Global Trade
For companies involved in cross-border trade, exchange rates are a double-edged sword:
Transaction Risk: Deals agreed upon in foreign currencies may lose value if the exchange rate moves unfavorably before payment.
Translation Risk: Multinationals converting foreign earnings back to the home currency may see profits shrink due to adverse currency movements.
Economic Risk: Long-term currency trends can affect market competitiveness and strategic planning.
Businesses often use hedging instruments such as forward contracts, options, and swaps to mitigate these risks, but hedging itself requires careful timing and analysis.
6. The Role of Exchange Rates in Trade Policies
Governments and policymakers closely monitor exchange rates as they influence trade balances, inflation, and economic growth. Some subtle but powerful strategies include:
Devaluation: Intentionally lowering a currency’s value to make exports cheaper and stimulate economic growth.
Revaluation: Increasing a currency’s value to reduce inflationary pressures from imports.
Capital Controls: Restricting foreign investment flows to prevent excessive volatility in the domestic currency.
These strategies are sometimes opaque and subject to sudden changes, making the currency markets an arena of both economic and political strategy.
7. Global Trade Patterns and Currency Movements
Currency trends often shape global trade flows in ways that are not obvious:
Commodity Prices: Commodities like oil are priced in US Dollars. Countries dependent on these imports face a hidden “currency tax” if their own currency depreciates.
Regional Trade Blocs: Exchange rates influence regional competitiveness. For instance, the Euro affects intra-European trade and external trade with non-Euro countries.
Supply Chain Costs: Multinational companies adjust sourcing and production locations based on currency trends to optimize costs.
8. Long-Term Insights
Understanding exchange rates requires more than just watching daily quotes. Savvy traders and policymakers analyze:
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Long-term equilibrium exchange rates based on relative price levels.
Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): Adjusted for inflation and trade weight, giving a more realistic measure of competitiveness.
Global Reserve Currencies: US Dollar dominance impacts how other currencies behave in trade. Countries holding large dollar reserves can stabilize their exchange rates and trade flows.
9. Technology and Algorithmic Influence
Modern currency markets are heavily influenced by technology:
Algorithmic Trading: Sophisticated algorithms detect tiny market inefficiencies, executing trades within milliseconds, which can amplify short-term currency volatility.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT): Small price differentials are exploited across different exchanges globally, subtly affecting exchange rates and market liquidity.
10. Key Takeaways
Exchange rates are central to global trade, influencing prices, demand, and competitiveness.
Beyond obvious supply and demand, factors like capital flows, speculation, political stability, and central bank strategies profoundly affect currency movements.
Businesses, investors, and governments must actively manage exchange rate risks to protect profits and economic stability.
Understanding long-term fundamentals like PPP, REER, and reserve currencies helps anticipate shifts in global trade patterns.
In short, exchange rates are both a reflection and a driver of global economic dynamics. Mastering their complexities offers a competitive edge in international business and investment—often a “hidden secret” that separates average market participants from those who profit consistently in global trade.
GLOBUSSPR
Competitive Currency Wars1. What Are Competitive Currency Wars?
A currency war begins when one country deliberately devalues its currency to make its exports cheaper and imports more expensive. This leads to:
Higher export competitiveness
Increased domestic production
Potential rise in GDP
Shift of trade deficits toward trade surpluses
However, once one major trading nation devalues its currency, others often follow suit to protect their trade position. This spiral of competitive devaluations becomes a “race to the bottom”, destabilizing capital flows and weakening global financial stability.
Currency wars are rarely declared openly. They typically unfold through monetary policy, interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, or direct market intervention.
2. Why Countries Engage in Currency Wars
A. To Boost Exports
A weak currency makes domestic products cheaper for foreign buyers. Export-driven economies—like Japan, China, and South Korea—often use currency policy to support global sales.
B. To Reduce Trade Deficits
Countries facing large trade deficits (like the U.S. historically) often accuse trading partners of manipulating exchange rates.
C. To Encourage Domestic Industrial Growth
Lower currency value attracts manufacturing demand, protects domestic industries, and supports job creation.
D. To Stimulate Inflation
If an economy is facing deflation (falling prices), a weaker currency increases import prices, pushing inflation into the system.
E. To Manage Debt Burden
A weaker currency reduces the real value of domestic debt, making repayment easier.
3. Key Tools Used in Currency Wars
Countries deploy several policy mechanisms to weaken or control exchange rates:
1. Monetary Policy (Interest Rates)
Lower interest rates reduce returns on investments in that currency, leading to capital outflow and depreciation. Central banks often use rate cuts to support domestic credit growth and weaken currency value.
2. Quantitative Easing (QE)
Central banks inject liquidity by buying government and corporate bonds. More money in circulation generally lowers currency value.
The U.S. Federal Reserve used QE heavily after the 2008 crisis.
Japan’s “Abenomics” relied on aggressive QE to weaken the yen.
3. Direct Currency Market Intervention
Central banks buy or sell foreign currency reserves to influence the local exchange rate.
Example: The People’s Bank of China has historically bought dollars to keep the yuan weaker.
4. Capital Controls
Governments may restrict money inflows or outflows to protect their currency from appreciation or depreciation.
5. Trade Tariffs and Economic Policies
Though not direct currency tools, such measures often accompany or provoke currency wars.
4. Historical Examples of Currency Wars
A. The Great Depression (1930s)
Countries abandoned the gold standard and devalued their currencies to gain export advantages. This period is often called the first modern currency war.
B. The Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98)
Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea saw massive currency depreciations. Competitive moves followed as neighboring economies attempted to maintain trade competitiveness.
C. The U.S. vs China (2000s–2010s)
China was accused of keeping the yuan artificially low to boost exports. Tensions peaked around 2010–2015, intensifying global currency debates.
D. Post-2008 Global Financial Crisis
Massive global QE programs triggered competitive devaluations:
U.S. dollar weakened due to QE
Japan pushed yen down via Abenomics
Emerging markets reacted to defend their own currencies
This period is considered a modern example of global currency war dynamics.
5. How Currency Wars Affect the Global Economy
Competitive currency wars may offer short-term growth benefits to some nations, but they carry significant risks. Their impacts spread across:
A. Trade Balances
A weaker currency increases exports and reduces imports, but if multiple countries devalue simultaneously, the net effect becomes negligible. This leads to global trade instability.
B. Global Investment Flows
Currency uncertainty discourages foreign investment. Investors prefer stable currencies and predictable returns; currency wars increase volatility.
C. Inflation and Purchasing Power
Devalued currency raises import prices, leading to inflation. While mild inflation can stimulate growth, uncontrolled inflation reduces public purchasing power.
D. Commodity Prices
Commodities like oil, gold, and metals are dollar-denominated. If major currencies weaken:
Commodity prices rise in local currency
Import-dependent nations face higher costs
E. Stock Markets and Bonds
Currency weakening often boosts domestic stock markets as export-driven companies benefit. However, government bond markets may suffer due to capital outflows.
F. Geopolitical Tensions
Accusations of currency manipulation can escalate into:
Trade wars
Tariff battles
Diplomatic standoffs
For example, U.S.–China tensions over exchange rates influenced global trade policy for years.
6. Benefits of Currency Wars (Short-Term)
1. Export Boost
Helps domestic manufacturers stay competitive.
2. Economic Growth
Weaker currency can ignite growth during stagnation.
3. Job Creation
Export-dependent industries grow employment.
4. Debt Management
Real debt burden reduces with depreciation.
7. Risks and Long-Term Costs of Currency Wars
1. Global Instability
Currency wars destabilize global financial markets.
2. Retaliatory Devaluations
One country's move triggers others, amplifying volatility.
3. Imported Inflation
Higher prices for imported goods hurt consumers.
4. Financial Market Distortions
Capital flight, volatile stock markets, unstable bond yields.
5. Loss of Investor Confidence
If investors expect sustained devaluation, they withdraw capital.
6. Trade Conflicts
Countries may impose tariffs or sanctions, damaging global trade.
8. Are We in a Currency War Today?
In recent years, global economic conditions—such as rising U.S. interest rates, geopolitical tensions, inflation cycles, and post-pandemic stimulus—have created conditions resembling a currency war environment. Central banks are aggressively adjusting policies, and exchange-rate competition is visible among major economies like the U.S., China, Japan, and Europe.
9. Conclusion
Competitive currency wars represent a complex interplay of economics, politics, and global finance. While currency devaluation can offer short-term advantages such as export growth and inflation management, the long-term consequences often outweigh the benefits. Currency wars can ignite international tensions, distort global markets, and create instability for investors, consumers, and policymakers alike.
In a deeply interconnected world, sustainable economic growth depends more on cooperation than competitive devaluations. Countries must balance domestic priorities with global responsibilities, as excessive currency competition can ultimately harm all players in the global economic system.
Inflation & CPI Trends Across Major Economies1. What Inflation and CPI Represent
Inflation represents the rate at which the general level of prices increases over time. It shows how much the purchasing power of money declines—meaning the same amount of money buys fewer goods and services. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely used indicators to measure inflation. CPI tracks the price changes of a "basket" of essential goods and services such as food, housing, healthcare, education, transportation, energy, and other everyday items.
Most central banks aim to keep inflation around 2%, believing this level balances economic growth and price stability. Too little inflation risks deflation, while too much inflation destroys purchasing power and can destabilize an economy.
2. United States – Inflation Led by Services and Wages
The U.S. has experienced significant inflationary fluctuations in recent years. After rising sharply due to pandemic-related supply disruptions, labor shortages, and aggressive fiscal stimulus, inflation began to cool. However, the U.S. economy also faced persistent services inflation, driven by rising wages, rent growth, and strong consumer spending.
The Federal Reserve uses the CPI and its preferred measure, the PCE index, to assess inflation pressure. To control inflation, the Fed raised interest rates aggressively. Cooling inflation in the U.S. is heavily influenced by:
Stabilization of supply chains
Declines in energy prices
Slower wage growth
Softening consumer demand
Still, services and housing costs often remain elevated, making full normalization slower. The U.S. inflation trend has major global implications because of the dollar’s role in global trade and finance.
3. Eurozone – Energy Prices and Weak Growth Dynamics
Inflation in the Eurozone has been heavily affected by energy price shocks, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and disruption of natural gas supply. When energy prices surged, CPI reached decades-high levels. As energy prices normalized, inflation cooled significantly.
However, inflation dynamics in Europe differ from the U.S. because of:
Weak GDP growth
Higher dependence on imported energy
Slower wage gains
Fragmented labor markets across member countries
While headline inflation eased, core inflation—which excludes volatile items like food and energy—sometimes remained elevated. The European Central Bank (ECB) aims for a 2% target, but must balance inflation control with the region’s fragile economic growth, making policy decisions more challenging.
4. United Kingdom – Stubbornly High Inflation Pressures
The UK experienced one of the highest inflation rates among developed economies due to a combination of factors:
Brexit-induced supply chain disruptions
Declines in labor supply
High food and energy prices
Strong services inflation
The Bank of England faced a difficult environment: inflation stayed high even as economic growth weakened. Food inflation and rising rents were particularly sticky. Although inflation eventually began easing, services inflation and wage pressures remained key challenges. The UK’s unique mix of structural and cyclical inflation forces continues to make inflation management more difficult compared with the U.S. or Eurozone.
5. Japan – Moving From Deflation to Inflation
Japan historically struggled with deflationary pressures for decades. However, global supply chain disruptions, higher import prices, and a weaker yen pushed Japan’s inflation upward more recently. Japanese inflation trends differ from the West:
Price rises are often driven by cost-push rather than demand-pull factors
Wage growth tends to be modest
Consumer behavior is highly price-sensitive
Firms are reluctant to raise prices
The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-loose monetary policy longer than other central banks due to its long deflation history. Inflation rising closer to the BOJ’s target was seen as a structural shift, but sustainability remains uncertain. Japan’s inflation is typically lower and more fragile than Western economies.
6. China – Low Inflation and Risk of Deflation
Unlike the West, China’s inflation trends have been very subdued. Several factors contribute to China’s low CPI:
Weak domestic demand
Property market slowdown
Falling producer prices
Slow wages growth
Consumers increasing savings rather than spending
At times, China even faces deflationary pressures, especially in the manufacturing sector. China’s CPI is heavily influenced by food prices, particularly pork, which can cause short-term volatility but not persistent inflation. The People’s Bank of China typically uses supportive monetary policy, contrasting sharply with the tightening cycles in Western countries.
China’s low inflation is a sign of economic softness rather than stability, impacting global trade demand and commodity markets.
7. India – Balancing Growth and Inflation
India's inflation trends often revolve around food, fuel, and commodity prices, which make CPI more volatile compared with advanced economies. Seasonal factors, monsoon quality, and global oil prices heavily influence inflation in India. Food inflation—especially vegetables, cereals, and pulses—plays a significant role.
The Reserve Bank of India targets a 4% inflation midpoint. Despite fluctuations, India often manages inflation reasonably due to:
Strong supply-side interventions
Government food subsidies
A diversified economy
A growing services sector
However, persistent food shocks and high global oil prices can challenge India’s inflation stability.
8. Emerging Markets – More Volatility, Higher CPI Pressures
Emerging markets such as Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia often face higher and more volatile inflation due to:
Exchange rate fluctuations
High dependence on imported fuel and food
Political instability
Limited monetary policy credibility
Lower household income buffers
Turkey has experienced hyperinflation-like conditions at times due to unorthodox monetary policy, while Brazil and others use very high interest rates to stabilize inflation.
Inflation management in emerging markets is fundamentally more complex, with structural challenges and external shocks playing a larger role.
9. Global Trends – What Unites and What Differentiates
Several global inflation themes have emerged:
Common Factors Across Economies
Supply chain disruptions
Energy and commodity price volatility
Labor market shifts
Climate-related food supply issues
Geopolitical tensions
Key Differences
Advanced economies face wage-driven services inflation.
China and Japan face weak demand and deflation risks.
Emerging markets face currency-driven inflation shocks.
Central banks globally aim for price stability but must balance inflation control with economic growth. Fiscal policies, demographics, globalization trends, and technological innovation also shape long-term inflation trajectories.
Conclusion
Inflation and CPI trends across major economies are shaped by a mix of global and domestic forces. While the U.S. and Europe focus on cooling services inflation, Japan and China deal with the opposite challenge: ensuring demand is strong enough to prevent deflation. Emerging markets juggle inflation volatility due to external shocks. Understanding these regional differences is essential for investors, businesses, and policymakers to navigate an interconnected global economic landscape.
Sovereign Debt Explained1. What Is Sovereign Debt?
Sovereign debt is the debt issued by a national government. When a government needs funds for infrastructure, defense, education, subsidies, welfare schemes, or to manage economic crises, it may borrow money by issuing bonds. These are known as government bonds, treasury bills, notes, or gilts depending on the country. Investors—such as banks, pension funds, mutual funds, foreign governments, and individuals—buy these securities in exchange for fixed interest payments and eventual repayment of the principal.
Sovereign debt can be domestic (issued in the country’s own currency) or external (issued in foreign currencies like USD, EUR, JPY). Domestic debt is generally safer because the government can print its own currency to repay. External debt is riskier because the government must earn or reserve foreign currency to repay.
2. Why Do Governments Borrow?
Governments borrow for many reasons:
A. Budget Deficits
Most countries spend more than they earn from taxes. To bridge this gap, they issue debt.
B. Long-Term Development
Borrowing allows governments to fund large infrastructure projects such as roads, airports, railways, and power grids.
C. Economic Stimulus
During recessions or financial crises, governments borrow heavily to boost the economy through stimulus packages.
D. Natural Disasters and Wars
Countries borrow massively during emergencies, conflicts, or disasters to rebuild and stabilize the economy.
E. Refinancing Existing Debt
Governments may borrow more to repay maturing old debt—this is known as rolling over debt.
3. How Governments Borrow: The Bond Market
Governments borrow primarily by issuing sovereign bonds. These bonds come with:
Maturity (short-term, medium-term, long-term)
Coupon rate (interest rate paid)
Face value (principal amount)
Yield (actual return for investors)
The yield is crucial in understanding sovereign debt. When investors see a government as safe, yields are low because they are willing to accept lower returns. When risk is high, yields rise because investors demand higher compensation.
For example:
US Treasuries: considered ultra-safe, so yields are low.
Emerging market bonds: carry higher yields because they are riskier.
4. Who Owns Sovereign Debt?
Sovereign debt is owned by a mixture of:
Domestic institutions (banks, insurance companies)
Foreign governments and central banks
International investors and hedge funds
Multilateral institutions like IMF and World Bank
Retail investors (common in Japan and India)
Ownership matters because it affects political and economic independence. A country heavily indebted to foreign investors may face economic pressure or vulnerability during crises.
5. Sovereign Debt and Credit Ratings
Credit rating agencies like Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch evaluate a country’s ability to repay its debt. They give ratings like:
AAA (excellent)
BBB (investment grade)
Below BBB (junk status)
Ratings affect borrowing costs. A downgrade increases yields, making borrowing more expensive. For example, if India or Brazil receives a downgrade, foreign investors may withdraw, causing currency depreciation and financial stress.
6. Why Sovereign Debt Matters in the Global Economy
Sovereign debt influences:
A. Interest Rates
Government bond yields set the benchmark interest rates for the entire economy—corporate loans, mortgages, business financing.
B. Currency Strength
Countries with strong debt profiles attract foreign capital, strengthening their currency. Weak profiles cause currency depreciation.
C. Stock Markets
Rising yields can reduce liquidity and slow growth, causing stock markets to fall.
D. International Trade
Countries with high external debt depend on foreign exchange reserves to pay interest, which affects their trade balance.
7. Risks Associated With Sovereign Debt
A. Default Risk
A sovereign default happens when a government cannot repay its debt. Examples:
Greece (2010–2012 crisis)
Argentina (multiple defaults)
Sri Lanka (2022)
Russia (1998 and 2022-related issues)
B. Currency Risk
Countries borrowing in foreign currencies face significant risk if their own currency weakens.
C. Inflation
If governments print money to repay, inflation may increase.
D. Political Instability
Political conflicts, weak governance, and corruption increase sovereign risk.
E. Rising Interest Rates
When global interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, especially for emerging markets.
8. Sovereign Debt Crises: How They Happen
A sovereign debt crisis occurs when a country can no longer repay or refinance its debt. Key triggers include:
A. Excessive Borrowing
Large deficits over many years accumulate into unsustainable debt.
B. Currency Crashes
A sharp currency fall makes foreign debt more expensive to repay.
C. Falling Revenues
Economic slowdown reduces government income.
D. Loss of Investor Confidence
If investors fear default, they demand higher yields or stop lending altogether.
E. External Shocks
Oil price shocks, global recessions, wars, pandemics all increase debt vulnerability.
9. How Countries Manage Sovereign Debt
Successful debt management includes:
A. Maintaining Fiscal Discipline
Keeping deficits low over time.
B. Borrowing Mostly in Domestic Currency
Countries like Japan borrow mostly in yen, which reduces risk.
C. Extending Maturities
Longer maturities reduce pressure on short-term refinancing.
D. Building Foreign Exchange Reserves
Reserves act as insurance for repaying external debt.
E. Negotiating with Creditors
Countries may negotiate for:
Debt restructuring
Interest forgiveness
Extended payment timelines
F. Using IMF Support
The IMF often provides loans and stabilization programs during crises.
10. Examples of Sovereign Debt Situations
A. Japan
Has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios but rarely faces a crisis because it borrows in yen and has strong investor confidence.
B. Greece
Faced a severe crisis due to excessive borrowing, weak revenue collection, and dependence on foreign creditors.
C. India
Has a growing but manageable debt burden, mostly in rupees. Strong domestic demand helps absorb government bond supply.
D. United States
Issues the world’s safest sovereign debt because US Treasuries are considered risk-free and backed by global demand.
Conclusion
Sovereign debt is the backbone of modern economies. It finances development, stabilizes markets during crises, and serves as a benchmark for global interest rates. But it is a double-edged sword—when managed wisely, it supports growth; when mismanaged, it can trigger financial collapse. Understanding the structure, risks, and dynamics of sovereign debt helps investors, traders, and policymakers navigate the global financial landscape with clarity and confidence.
Globus spirits ltd. SwingSwing trade , yesterday bulkdeal happened.
Also break on chart previous buyer trap area.
Max loss 5/6%
Target 12/13%
Target based on next previous trap buyer zone area .
Exit when 1056 below 15min candle closed sl trigger,
Or price consolidation start at previous trap area mark zone , cut position here
Globus Sprits in high sprits. Globus Spirits Ltd. operates as a holding company, which engages in the manufacture and sale of Indian made Indian liquor, bulk alcohol and franchise bottling.
Globus Spirits Ltd CMP is 847.45. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding and MFs increased their shareholding last quarter. The Negative aspects of the company are High PE (PE=45), Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Annual net profit declining for last 2 years.
Entry can be taken after closing above 876. Targets in the stock will be 936 and 991. The long-term target in the stock will be 1093 and 1196. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 777.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
UPTO 300% ROI in Globus Spirits LTD (Multibagger Potential)The only undervalued breweries company in India with strong sales growth and big capex for further expansion, Net Profit got affected only due to margin pressure.
Good to accumulate around 650-700 levels for the following targets.
Medium Term Target @ 1290 (90% ROI)
Long Term Target @ 1710 (150% ROI)
Long Term Positional Target @ 2800 (300% ROI in 3-4 years max)
There is a sharp decline in DII's shareholding pattern since SEP 2023.
Do your own due diligence before taking any action.
Peace!!
Globus Spirits can lift your spirits.Globus Spirits Ltd. CMP – 887.95
Market Capitalization Rs 2,557.5Cr
Red Flags:🟥
Declining annual net profit
Declining cash from operations annual
MFs are decreasing stake
Green Flags:🟩
No debt
Low debt
Zero promoter pledge
FIIs are increasing stake
Promoter holding increasing
Previous Happy Candles Number – 50/100
New Happy Candles Number – 66/100
X/2 Fresh Entry/ averaging / compounding after closing above 925
Final Entry 972
Targets: 1024, 1087 and 1145
Long term target: 1219, 1282 and 1326
Stop loss: Closing below 856
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.








