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XAUUSD – U.S. Government Shutdown Pressure on GoldHello Traders, For the first time since 2018, the U.S. government faces the risk of a shutdown. This can only be avoided if Congress passes new funding legislation, but the timing remains uncertain. This political backdrop is exerting strong pressure on the financial markets, and gold – the traditional safe haven asset – has become the focal point for investors. Technical Perspective Gold continues to set new ATHs right in the Asian session today, indicating the uptrend remains intact. The upward price channel on H4 maintains a beautiful structure, with the main trend continuing to favor buying. Yesterday's decline was merely a "liquidity sweep," after which the price quickly returned to its upward momentum. Short positions can be considered when the price hits strong resistance, combining Fibonacci + Trendline, to optimize winning probabilities. Trading Scenario Sell (short-term at resistance): Entry: 3884 – 3886 SL: 3890 TP: 3872 – 3860 – 3845 – 3830 Buy (in line with the main trend): Entry: 3820 – 3823 SL: 3816 TP: 3835 – 3850 – 3862 – 3880 Conclusion Gold remains strongly supported by the political instability in the U.S. The medium-term strategy continues to prioritize Buying at support zones, while Selling should only be considered when there is a clear reaction at resistance zones. Traders need to closely monitor political news, as any developments related to the U.S. government can alter gold's short-term structure. Follow me for the fastest updates on new scenarios as price paths change.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Gold Tops $3,800 to New Record as Traders Wonder: Short or Long?Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is back in the spotlight, flashing new record highs in bold efforts to reclaim its throne as the ultimate “don’t panic” asset. The yellow metal hit a record high of $3,820 per ounce early Monday morning before cooling slightly to hover near $3,810. That’s up more than 47% year-to-date, absolutely crushing Bitcoin’s BITSTAMP:BTCUSD modest 17% gain and the S&P 500’s SP:SPX respectable-but-boring 13%. So the question isn’t whether gold is hot — it’s what traders should do about it. Go long, go short, or sit tight with popcorn and watch the shiny show? Let’s break it down. 🤸🏻‍♀️ 📈 A Rally Forged in a Rush Gold’s monster run this year didn’t happen in a vacuum. Inflation has stayed sticky, but not alarmingly so — Core PCE clocked in at 2.9% in August, unchanged from July. More importantly, markets are convinced that Jerome Powell and his not-so-merry band of central bankers will restart the rate-cutting cycle. Following the September cut , another trim could come as early as October. Lower rates mean the opportunity cost of holding gold gets a lot smaller. (Gold famously pays no yield, no dividends, no interest, no nothing!). If Treasuries aren’t giving you much, parking money in shiny metal suddenly feels smarter. That’s been a huge tailwind for bullion. On top of that, Trump last week announced tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture. Every time the tariff machine fires up, traders reach for their safe-haven toolkit. Spoiler: gold is always in there. ✨ Why Gold Still Glitters Gold isn’t just a shiny rock — it’s a psychological anchor. Investors treat it like insurance against bad times. With rate cuts looming, central banks are buying aggressively. That way demand has a natural floor. Global central banks, led by heavyweights like the US, China, Russia, and Turkey, have been stacking gold for months. That creates a structural bid under prices, no matter what institutional investors are doing day-to-day. And don’t forget the everyday crowd: ETFs and bullion dealers have seen renewed inflows as traders hedge against “what if Powell loses control?” scenarios. In short: gold thrives when confidence in the dollar, the economy, or politics falters. Check, check, and check. The dollar’s lower by about 10% on the year, the economy may or may not be adding jobs after wild job-count revisions . And politics? That’s where the US slaps tariffs on everyone. 📉 The Bearish Angle: Why Short Might Work Now for the spicy take — maybe gold’s run is overdone. At nearly $3,800, the metal’s flirting with parabolic territory. There’s no recent support for a potential rebound so the way south could be steep. As steep as the first available support zone near $3,500. Shorting gold here is essentially a bet that: • The Fed’s cuts are already priced in. • Inflation could flare up again, forcing rates higher, which could pressure gold. • Risk assets rebound, reducing the appeal of hiding out in safe havens. And let’s not forget: gold’s moves aren’t always rational. When everyone’s piled into the same safe haven, the smallest spark can trigger a stampede for the exits. A dip back to $3,500 — the April record — wouldn’t surprise seasoned traders. Speaking of steep selloffs, that’s exactly what happened after that April high. 🚀 The Bullish Angle: Why Long Still Makes Sense On the other hand, momentum is a beast, and right now, gold has it. Every dip this year has been met with eager buying. As long as central banks keep accumulating and the Fed sticks to the rate-cutting script, the long case should stay intact. The macro backdrop is still uncertain and murky: tariffs, wobbly jobs data, political drama, and a dollar that looks tired. That’s not a bad mix for more upside. A decisive breakout above $3,791 could put $4,000 on the radar, giving long traders another juicy leg higher. 🔀 Noise, Narratives, and the Middle Ground Here’s the tricky part: both the bull and bear cases have merit. Gold’s fundamentals support strength, but technicals hint at exhaustion (RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions). That’s why positioning is everything. Reliable stops and clear risk-reward targets are your friends here — whether you’re riding the momentum wave or calling its top. Seasoned traders know this dance: gold rallies hard, then chops sideways for weeks, lulling everyone into boredom before it explodes again. The key is not to let noise — tariffs, tweets, or Fed chatter — shake you out of your plan. But also, keep an eye on the Economic calendar and be ready for the next wave of reports and data. 🎯 Bottom Line Gold’s 47% rally this year makes it the star of the market, but it also makes it vulnerable. A case exists for shorts (froth, more than anything) and for longs (structural demand, central bank buying, Fed easing). The real takeaway? Don’t pick a side out of emotion. If gold breaks convincingly above $3,791, momentum traders will be justified in staying long. If it fails at resistance and rolls over, bears may get their payday. Off to you : What’s your position in gold? Are you looking for more appreciation or you’re a short seller? Share your thoughts in the comment section!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
25
A Healthy Market Breathes. Gold Hasn’t Exhaled Yet.I remain bullish on Gold overall — that’s not in question. On 24 August, I even shared a complete cross-market outlook arguing that acceleration to the upside could be the next big move. And indeed, we got it. But here’s the paradox of markets: sometimes, the stronger the rally, the more fragile it becomes. ________________________________________ Why I Warned About a Steep Correction • Yesterday, I flagged the risk of a sharp pullback. My stop loss was triggered, yes, but my conviction hasn’t changed. If anything, the higher Gold pushes, the more probable and violent the correction could be. • The daily chart says it all: since the local bottom around 3300, Gold has moved almost vertically higher. • From 26 August onward, with the sole exception of the 4 September red candle, every single day closed green — and not just small gains, but +1% or more. This type of move is powerful, but also unsustainable. ________________________________________ Market Psychology at Work Markets move in cycles of fear and greed, tension and release. A one-sided move — especially a vertical one — compresses tension like a coiled spring. Traders get trapped: • Late buyers rush in from FOMO, convinced “it will never stop going up.” • Sellers get squeezed, forced to cover, adding fuel to the fire. • But eventually, when there’s no one left to buy at higher prices, even a small wave of selling can cascade into a steep correction. This is why not even Bitcoin, in its glory days, could sustain vertical rises for long. The pattern was always the same: euphoric rise → brutal drop . Gold is no different. ________________________________________ Where We Stand Now • At the time of writing, Gold trades at 3647, after touching 3660 and marking a new ATH. • Is this the local top? Hard to say with certainty. But in my book, until we see a strong correction, there is no valid buy trade here. ________________________________________ My Trading Plan Today, I will look to sell again. Not because I doubt the long-term bullish trend, but because the short-term imbalance is glaring. A healthy market breathes, and Gold hasn’t exhaled yet. 🚀 Long term: bullish. ⚠️ Short term: vulnerable. 🎯 Until a correction resets the board, my play is on the short side.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
14
All Time High, again?!Gold Keeps Climbing & Traders Keep Selling🚀Gold printed a new all-time high. Last Friday, now Monday and today. You sell. You lose. The minute it pulls back, you try again. Same story on repeat. Thousands of beginner traders are caught in this loop right now. Sell → Stop Loss → Frustration → Sell again because now for sure it will reverse, because it has to... wake up and stop this loop. I. The Mental Bias – Why ATHs Trigger Dumb Decisions The human brain hates “expensive”. Expensive feels wrong to buy, so you try to sell it, forgetting that expensive can get even higher in price. We are wired to hunt bargains, not pay premiums, but Gold at ATH doesn’t follow shopping logic. “I missed the buy, so I’ll catch the drop” is Ego trading, not strategy. People confuse exhaustion candles with reversals. ATHs are not automatic sell signals; they are liquidity traps. Your brain wants to be right, not profitable. II. Why GOLD is Different – It Doesn’t Behave Like Forex Pairs Gold = Safe Haven. It attracts massive capital in global political & economic uncertainty. When XAUUSD breaks ATH, it often does so to induce sellers, not reverse. It will breathe, drop 100 pips, trap more shorts, and rally again. This is by design, due to the fact that the market runs on pain and liquidity. III. So What Should You Actually Do? • Stop shorting just because it’s “too high”. Learn to wait or buy pullbacks. • Don’t trade out of regret. Trade from a solid plan. • Use bias on different time frames from high to low, structural zones and key levels. • Align with HTF bias. Intraday trades should flow with the structure. • Gold gives pullbacks, if you miss them, wait, don’t chase reversals until the fire in price action settles with solid confirmations. 🌟Conclusion to follow: It’s not Gold that destroys accounts, but panic, ego, lack of patience and the absence of structure. XAUUSD isn’t your enemy, but as always your emotions are. Until you learn to keep them in check, trade less and …. Survive ATH season by following the structure and leave moods & fake hopes out of the market. If this article helped you today and brought you more clarity: Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more trading ideas and trading psychology. Thank you.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX
4
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: Another decent day completing the target we gave you yesterday, and then in Camelot using the red boxes to scalp while targeting that high which is now completed. Now we will say caution on the markets, we can see higher but we don't want to long it up here. We've done enough, let the price settle and let's see where they close. We have support now at the 2645-50 region which if held can then propel us again upside into the level we have circled. DO NOT LONG HERE! Please, do not long with the volume or layer your shorts against the volume. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT In last week’s KOG Report we said we were on the flip again so would be looking for price to target that 2030-28 level at some point early week before then looking for an opportunity to long the market into the 2040-45 region with extension into 2050. It was this region we said we would ideally want to hold any short trades down if we got the reaction that we wanted, however, during the move into resistance, we suggested traders trade it level to level as the reaction was controlled and exit at the support level. It was here, after taking the move down, then up and scalping it down again, identifying the perfect opportunity to long, we unfortunately put a risk on longs due to the news release on Friday. So although we did well on Gold, we missed the final move up to where we closed, better to be safe than sorry I guess. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? This week we would say caution on the markets, they’re extreme and stretched with sentiment also approaching extreme levels. We’re a bit high here to even consider going long in the early sessions, so for that reason, we would suggest looking for the price to target the higher order region and looking for a reaction in price, if there is a confirmed set up, we feel an opportunity to short the market into the 2070 and below that 2065 region are available. It is this support region 2060-65 and below that 2055 that need to be monitored, holding above should allow us to get in on the swing into the higher levels firstly 2095 and them above that 2120! What we want to see this week is if the order region 2085-80 becomes a support level for gold for the coming weeks. If so, it’s likely we’re to see higher pricing with the higher target levels not a huge distance away. This is something that can only be monitored on the structure and formations of the market when it opens and settles, otherwise we will need to trade the immediate levels and take it how we see it as we usually do. Simple on this week, on open, look higher for the short trade, if we support below at the intra-day levels, it's a long, if we break, we correct the whole move! KOG’s bias for the week: Bullish above 2065 with targets above 2093, 2095 and above that 2120 Bearish on break of 2065 with targets below 2045 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (14th October 2021)Gold soared after inflation print yesterday. Today it broke above 1800 USD. Currently price is creating setup for inverted head and shoulders pattern which is very bullish development for XAUUSD. We continue to maintain bullish stance on gold and we expect eventual breakout above resistance that lies near 1840 USD pricetag. Our short-term price target of 1850 USD remains unchanged. Same applies to our medium-term price target of 1875 USD and to our long-term price target of 1900 USD. Technical analysis RSI, Stochastic and MACD are very bullish. Gold resumed its bullish trend as is implied by DM+ and DM-. However, trend is very weak at the moment. It is possible that gold will continue to move sideways for little longer before eventual breakout to the upside. We continue to be very bullish on gold and we expect new all time high over next 12 months. RSI: MACD: Stochastic: Support and resistance Short-term resistance appears around 1840 USD. This is very important price level and it coincides with neckline of forming inverted head and shoulders pattern (which would be validated if neckline was penetrated). Another strong resistance lies around 1916 USD. Major resistance sits at all time high of 2075 USD. Short-term support continues to rest at 1750 USD while major support appears near 1676 USD. Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
6