Goldlong
GOLD GOLDEN XauUsd is now still respecting the trend and will keep holding expecting an even stronger push to the up side
GOLD XAUUSD Gold moving as expected respecting our price and entries, will look for swinging opportunities ,and SL adjustments to BE
XAUAUSD ideaWe are waiting for our asset to reach our action zone, and based on the reaction, we’ll decide on our next moves.ALWAYS WAIT FOR A CONFIRMATION TO SEE IF THE PRICE VALIDATES THE ZONE.and you what is your vision of the EURUSD its interests me! i wait you in the commentary
Technical Shift FVG Break and Retest Hints at Further Upside!Gold is currently showing strength after taking support from the trendline, indicating buyers are stepping in around that level. Moreover the price has successfully broken above the 4-hour bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which suggests a shift in market sentiment. This FVG zone has now transitioned into an inversion level meaning what was once a resistance area could now act as support. At the moment, the market is pulling back, likely to retest this newly flipped zone. If buyers defend this area on the retest, it could provide the base for a potential bullish continuation. From this zone, we may witness a strong upward move, with the next target likely being the liquidity resting above key resistance levels. As always, it’s important to conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly (DYOR).
The latest trend analysis and layout of the day,flexible adoptio#XAUUSD
⚠️News focus on the Sino-US trade talks, which may affect the gold trend.
Since the opening of the market today, gold has been fluctuating in a narrow range in the short term, without giving a clear trading direction🤔, and the short-term trend has not changed much.📊
🚦It remains constrained by resistance and a downward trend. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the 3300 mark below and the support of 3295-3285📈. On the upside, we should pay attention to the short-term suppression level of 3321-3333 and yesterday's high of 3345-3350.📉
In the short term, as long as it does not break through yesterday's high point, the volatile downward trend will not change. 🐂Once it breaks through, the short-term decline will stop, and the market will continue the bull rebound to test 3370~3380 or even 3400 before falling again.
Therefore, short-term trading focuses on the 3300 mark below and the long trading opportunities at 3295-3285. On the upside, defend the 3345-3350 highs and establish short positions.🎯
🚀 BUY 3310-3330
🚀 TP 3321-3333
🚀 BUY 3295-3285
🚀 TP 3310-3330
🚀 SELL 3320-3330
🚀 TP 3310-3300
🚀 SELL 3345-3350
🚀 TP 3330-3285
7.29 Gold 1-hour bottom signal appearsIn the short term, we see the daily line as the range of 3301-3345, and the current price is showing a volatile rebound, so we have to buy on dips. Then 3306-08 is the long point, but the price has risen in the morning, so the long position should be around 3310-12 in advance. If it falls below 3301 during the day, it will continue to test the 3292-3282 line downward. Similarly, if it breaks above 3345 during the day, it will continue to test 3372 upward and show a rebound trend in the next few days.
BUY TRADE SETUP ON XAUUSDA Quick Trade setup on Gold for Gold traders who are crazy about Gold!
Swing Trade.
Check it out!
Gold Price Rally: Why Hedge Funds Are Making Their Biggest Bet Glimmer of Gold: Why Hedge Funds Are Making Their Biggest Bullish Bet in Months
In the complex and often turbulent theater of global finance, the movements of so-called "smart money" are watched with an eagle's eye. When these sophisticated players, particularly hedge funds, move in concert, it often signals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Recently, a powerful signal has emerged from the depths of the commodities market: hedge funds have dramatically increased their bullish bets on gold, pushing their net long positions to a 16-week high. This aggressive positioning is not a random fluctuation; it is a calculated response to a potent cocktail of persistent geopolitical instability, simmering trade tensions, and a growing conviction that the global economic landscape is tilting in favor of the ultimate safe-haven asset.
The surge in bullish sentiment represents a significant vote of confidence in the yellow metal. It suggests that some of the world's most well-resourced and analytically driven investors are looking past the daily noise of equity markets and are instead positioning themselves for a future where security, stability, and tangible value take precedence. They are not merely dipping their toes in the water; they are making a decisive, leveraged bet that the forces buffeting the global economy will continue to drive capital towards gold's enduring allure. This move has sent ripples across the financial world, prompting investors of all stripes to ask a critical question: What does the smart money see that we should be paying attention to?
Decoding the Data: A Sharp Turn Towards Bullishness
To understand the magnitude of this shift, one must look to the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report provides a detailed breakdown of positions in the futures markets, separating traders into different categories, including "Managed Money." This category, which primarily consists of hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, is a key barometer for speculative sentiment.
The latest data reveals a sharp and decisive increase in bullish conviction. Hedge funds significantly ramped up their gross long positions—outright bets that the price of gold will rise. Simultaneously, they have been closing out their short positions—bets that the price will fall. The combination of these two actions has a powerful magnifying effect on the "net long" position, which is the difference between the number of long and short contracts.
Reaching a 16-week high is particularly noteworthy. It indicates a reversal of previous caution or bearishness and the establishment of a new, more aggressive bullish trend. For months, hedge funds may have been hesitant, weighing the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates against emerging geopolitical risks. The current data shows that the scales have tipped decisively. This isn't a gradual accumulation; it's a forceful pivot, suggesting a high degree of conviction in the upside potential for gold. This influx of speculative capital acts as a powerful tailwind for the gold price, creating upward pressure as more funds chase the emerging momentum.
The Three Pillars of the Golden Thesis
The coordinated move by hedge funds is not based on a single factor but on a confluence of three powerful, interlocking macro-economic and geopolitical narratives. Each pillar reinforces the others, creating a compelling case for holding gold.
1. The Unsettled World: Geopolitical Risk as a Prime Catalyst
Gold has, for millennia, served as the ultimate barometer of fear. In times of peace and prosperity, its appeal can wane in favor of assets that offer growth and yield. But in an environment of escalating geopolitical tension, its value proposition becomes unparalleled. The current global landscape is rife with such tensions.
Persistent conflicts in key regions continue to create uncertainty, threatening to disrupt energy supplies, shipping lanes, and international relations. The risk of these conflicts widening or drawing in other powers keeps a floor under the demand for haven assets. Beyond active conflicts, the world is witnessing a broader realignment of global power. The rise of multi-polarity and the challenging of the post-Cold War order create a backdrop of systemic instability.
Furthermore, political uncertainty within major economies adds another layer of risk. Election cycles in dominant nations can lead to unpredictable policy shifts on everything from trade and taxation to international alliances. This policy uncertainty makes investors nervous, prompting them to allocate capital to assets that are insulated from the whims of any single government or political outcome. Gold, being a stateless monetary asset with no counterparty risk, is the natural recipient of these capital flows. Hedge funds are betting that these geopolitical undercurrents will not only persist but potentially intensify, making gold an essential portfolio hedge.
2. The Friction of Trade: A Drag on Global Growth
The era of seamless globalization has given way to a period of strategic competition and trade friction. The ongoing trade disputes between the world's largest economic blocs, most notably the United States and China, have moved beyond mere rhetoric and are now an entrenched feature of the global economy. Tariffs, export controls, and national security-driven industrial policies are disrupting long-established supply chains and creating a more fragmented and less efficient global marketplace.
This environment is a significant headwind for global economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy makes it difficult for businesses to make long-term investment decisions, dampening corporate spending and hiring. Slower global trade directly translates to slower economic growth, which in turn puts pressure on corporate earnings and equity valuations.
In this context, gold shines. As an asset that does not rely on economic growth to generate returns, it acts as a valuable diversifier in a portfolio dominated by stocks and bonds. When growth falters, gold's role as a store of value becomes more pronounced. Hedge funds are positioning for a scenario where persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on the global economy, making riskier assets less attractive and defensive assets like gold more appealing.
3. The Central Bank Pivot: Anticipating Looser Money
Perhaps the most powerful financial driver for gold is the outlook for monetary policy, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The price of gold has an inverse relationship with real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation). When real rates are high, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold is also high, as investors can earn a handsome, risk-free return in government bonds. Conversely, when real rates are low or falling, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, making it a more attractive investment.
For the past couple of years, central banks have been in a fierce battle against inflation, raising interest rates at an aggressive pace. However, the market is now increasingly looking ahead to the next phase of the cycle: rate cuts. While the timing is still a matter of debate, the consensus is that the next major policy move from the Fed and other major central banks will be to lower rates to support a slowing economy.
Hedge funds are front-running this anticipated pivot. They are accumulating gold now in expectation that falling interest rates in the future will provide a significant tailwind for its price. Even before the cuts materialize, the mere expectation of looser monetary policy is enough to fuel a rally. Furthermore, there is a persistent fear that central banks might make a policy error—either by keeping rates too high for too long and triggering a deep recession, or by cutting rates too soon and allowing inflation to become re-anchored. Either scenario is bullish for gold, which performs well during both economic downturns and periods of high inflation.
This speculative demand from hedge funds is layered on top of a powerful, long-term structural trend: voracious buying from the world's central banks. For several years, central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, India, and Turkey, have been steadily diversifying their foreign reserves away from the U.S. dollar and into physical gold. This "de-dollarization" trend is a strategic move to reduce dependence on the U.S. financial system and to hold a neutral reserve asset in an increasingly fractured world. This consistent, price-insensitive buying from official institutions creates a strong and stable floor of demand for gold, providing hedge funds with the confidence to build their own large, speculative positions on top of it.
Conclusion: A Resounding Vote for a Golden Future
The sharp increase in bullish gold bets by hedge funds is more than just a statistic; it is a story about risk, fear, and the search for security in an uncertain world. It reflects a growing consensus among sophisticated investors that the confluence of geopolitical turmoil, economic friction, and an impending shift in monetary policy has created a uniquely favorable environment for the precious metal.
These funds are acting as canaries in the coal mine, signaling a potential increase in market volatility and a flight to safety. Their aggressive positioning, backed by billions of dollars in capital, can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, driving prices higher and drawing in more waves of investors. As the world continues to grapple with deep-seated structural changes, the decision by the "smart money" to make its largest bullish wager on gold in months is a clear and resounding signal: in the quest for a safe harbor, all that glitters is, once again, gold.
"XAU/USD Gold Heist Plan | Pullback Entry for Big Bullish Move"🔐💰“GOLD HEIST PLAN UNLOCKED: Thief Trader’s XAU/USD Breakout Blueprint”💰🔐
by The Market Robber a.k.a. Thief Trader – Stealing Pips, One Candle at a Time!
🌍 Hey Money Makers, Market Hustlers, Robbers, & Chart Crackers! 🌍
Bonjour! Hola! Marhaba! Hallo! Ola! What's poppin'?
Welcome to another exclusive robbery plan crafted in pure Thief Trading style—built off technicals, fundamentals, market psychology, and a bit of outlaw intuition. 💸⚔️
This one’s for the GOLD DIGGERS – literally. We’re targeting XAU/USD for a high-voltage bullish heist 🎯💥. Stick to the plan, follow the chart, and you might just make it out with a sack full of pips 💰🔥.
🔓 THE SETUP: GET READY TO ROB THE GOLD MARKET
We're eyeing a LONG ENTRY, with clear intent to break past the consolidation zone and avoid the trap laid by the "market police" at the ATR barricade zone 🚨. This level is where overbought drama and bear claws are strongest – we slip in, grab the profits, and bounce before they know what hit ‘em.
🧠 Use caution: This level is filled with liquidity traps, reversals, fakeouts and retail bait zones. Classic Thief style means we know where the guards are sleeping and where the cameras don't reach. 🎥🔕
💸 ENTRY PLAN:
🟢 Entry Zone: Watch for a pullback to 3320.00 or above. Don’t jump early.
💡 Tactics:
Use Buy Limit Orders (DCA / Layered Entry Style)
Drop them in on 15min/30min swing levels – catch price slipping into liquidity
Confirm with minor structure breaks / order block retests
🔔 Set those alerts – the real move happens when the breakout candle hits.
🛑 STOP LOSS STRATEGY:
🧠 Pro Rule: No stop-loss before breakout.
Once breakout confirms:
🔴 SL Zone: Recent swing low (approx. 3280.00) on the 4H chart
🎯 Adjust SL based on:
Lot size
Order count
Risk appetite
You know the game: manage your risk like a pro thief—quiet, calculated, and fast on the getaway. 💨
🎯 TARGET ZONE:
🏁 TP Zone: 3490.00
⚠️ Escape earlier if the pressure gets heavy – smart thieves never overstay the job.
🧲 SCALP MODE:
Only scalp LONG SIDE – don’t get caught chasing shorts unless you're rich enough to burn your drawdown 🔥
🔐 Use trailing SL to secure bags while climbing the ladder.
🧠 FUNDAMENTALS & MACRO EDGE:
The Gold market is currently in a BEAR structure with hints of bullish reversal potential. This heist isn’t just technical – it’s backed by:
🌍 Global Macro Flows
💼 COT Reports
📰 Sentiment & News Risk
💣 Geo-political Heat
📊 Intermarket Analysis (Dollar, Yields, Risk-On/Off correlations)
Dig deep for the full macro breakdown. Knowledge is leverage.
(Find full reports on reputable sources — you know where to look 👀)
🚨 RISK ALERT:
Before, During & After News Releases:
Avoid fresh entries 🔕
Use Trailing SLs to protect live trades
Watch spread spikes & low-liquidity traps
👉 Don't trade when the market's drunk.
💖 SHOW LOVE – BOOST THE PLAN:
💥Smash that Boost Button💥 if you want more precision heist strategies like this. Support the Thief Trading Style, and we’ll keep robbing the markets clean and teaching the crew how to get in & get out profit-heavy. 🏴☠️📈💰
🎭 I’ll be back with another chart crime scene soon. Until then, stay sneaky, stay profitable, and always move like the market’s watching (because it is). 😎
🔐 Thief Trader Out. Rob. Exit. Repeat. 🔁💸
Scalp long position on Gold: R/R 1:3, Risk 1%Hello Guys
You can enter to this long position with maximum risk 1%
3300 may fall below, possibly setting a new low#XAUUSD
From the daily chart perspective, gold has a tendency to form a converging triangle, and observing the technical indicators of the daily chart, the downward trend may have just begun📉.
So, how should we plan for the evening?📊 Now there are certainly many outside buyers who will continue to increase their positions and try to recover their losses💰. So, should we continue to be long?📈 My opinion is to wait and see.👀 If the daily chart does not fall below 3300 points, it will consolidate between 3300 and 3350 points in the future. If it falls below 3300 points, we will next focus on the support level of 3295-3285 points, and then consider whether to go long🤔.
If you are more aggressive, you can consider going long near 3305 points and exit after earning $10-20. All opinions have been informed and everyone can choose to adopt them according to their own circumstances.😄
How to plan for the evening, pay attention to the 3300 markAfter the shorts took profits, gold consolidated in the 3310-3300 area. Judging from the daily chart, the decline in gold seems to have just begun, with the middle track of the Bollinger Band at around 3345 and the lower track at 3285. The possibility of falling below the 3300 mark cannot be ruled out in the evening. If gold falls below the 3300 mark, it may first hit 3295. If the decline continues, it may even hit the low of 3285-3275 below. However, if the 3300 mark can be effectively defended, then the possibility of maintaining the consolidation of 3300-3345 in the evening may be maintained. Therefore, it is not recommended to easily participate in transactions at the current position in the evening. It is mainly advisable to wait and see and pay attention to the breakthrough of the 3300 mark.
My premium privileges are about to expire, and subsequent trading strategies and analysis will be published in the group.
Pay attention to 3350 gains and lossesGood morning, bros. This morning gold again tested last week's low near 3325. From the chart, gold may continue to rise this week, with tariffs approaching, the Fed's interest rate cut, and NFP data imminent. The current strength and weakness are at 3350-3355. If it can effectively break through and stand above, it is expected to continue to test the previous high point, which is also the long-short dividing point of 3370-3380.
From the daily chart, there is not much change in the operational range of gold in the short term, and the change in the 4H chart is more obvious. After the decline in the early trading, it is now rebounding. There is a possibility of closing positive at the low. If it is directly positive on Monday, then it will bottom out directly at the beginning of the week. If it refreshes the low on Monday, the low point of 3285 will be seen below. Therefore, today's market focuses on the continuity of long and short. Of course, according to the current changes, the biggest possibility is to continue to rebound at the low point, pay attention to the support of 3310-3300 below, and pay attention to the gains and losses of the high point of 3355 above.
GOLD Reawakened: Corrects firmly but conditions remain bullishFrom a technical perspective Gold is climbing in a parallel channel, clearly bullish with a rhythm that’s hard to ignore. Price just bounced off the resistance with force, a classic overextension flush.
And the market is now approaching the lower boundary of this projected channel. This confluence of technical support is likely to attract renewed buying interest.
I expect it to bounce back toward 3,410, somewhere around the middle of the channel. The move up may not be determined right away. It could be consolitaing, fake dips first, or sudden acceleration.
The correction is quite surprise. What direction for GOLD price?✏️Quite surprised with the adjustment of gold at the end of the previous trading week. The rising price channel is still holding around the lower border of the price channel around 3316. A liquidity sweep and candle wick removal in this area is considered a good buying opportunity.
If h1 closes below this border, limit trading BUY signals until the bottom support of 3286. When the price can close the candle below 3316, gold will trade in a wide range and there is no main trend dominating the market.
📉 Key Levels
Support: 3316-3286
Resistance: 3372-3400-3418
Buy trigger: Reject and Trading above 3316
BUY DCA Break 3372
Target: 3400
SELL Trigger: Break bellow and Retest 3416
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Gold short-term rise waiting for breakthrough
💡Message Strategy
During the Asian trading session, gold prices rebounded slightly from $3,320, filling the short gap at the start of the new week. As investors chose to stay on the sidelines before the Fed's two-day monetary policy meeting, the bullish force of the US dollar temporarily weakened, providing support for gold, an interest-free asset.
However, with the 15% tariff agreement between the United States and Europe and the positive progress of trade easing between the United States, Japan and the United States, market risk appetite has rebounded, weakening the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
According to market surveys, "The current optimistic atmosphere of trade has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold, while the weakening of the US dollar has provided support for gold prices. The two forces offset each other, causing gold to fluctuate."
Investors are focusing on the FOMC meeting to be held on Tuesday. Although Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, the market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged at this meeting because the US labor market remains strong.
In addition to the interest rate decision, this week will also usher in the US second quarter GDP estimate, PCE price index and non-farm payrolls report, all of which may have a significant impact on gold.
📊Technical aspects
From the technical trend, gold triggered a rapid correction after breaking below the lower edge of the short-term rising channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level last week. The current gold price stabilized in the $3,320 area and received some buying at the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
However, it is worth noting that the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart is at $3,350, which constitutes an important technical resistance for a short-term rebound. On the contrary, if gold breaks through the $3,350 level, gold will continue to develop a bullish pattern.
From the technical trend, gold triggered a rapid correction after falling below the lower edge of the short-term rising channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level last week. The current gold price stabilized in the $3,320 area and received some buying at the 61.8% Fibonacci support.
However, it is worth noting that the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart is at $3,350, which constitutes an important technical resistance for a short-term rebound.
On the contrary, if gold breaks through the $3,350 line, it will be expected to attack the $3,371-3,373 area in the short term, and further look to the key pressure levels of $3,400 and $3,440.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3320-3325，SL：3300，Target: 3350
Still a chance for gold bulls?
💡Message Strategy
The gold market was volatile this week, and gold prices ultimately closed lower for the week.
Gold prices have failed to stabilize above $3,400 an ounce after a bullish breakout. The technical outlook highlights the recent indecision of gold bulls. Looking ahead to next week, the Fed's policy statement and US-China trade talks could trigger the next big move for gold.
These important factors may trigger the market next week
1. The Fed will announce its monetary policy decision after its policy meeting on July 29-30.
Before the Fed meeting, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of annualized growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter.
2. Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July employment report.
If the non-farm payrolls (NFP) increase by more than 100,000, it may indicate that the labor market is in good enough condition for the Fed to prioritize controlling inflation and support the dollar when making policies.
If the new non-farm payrolls data reaches or falls below 70,000, the dollar may find it difficult to find demand before the end of next week and help gold gain bullish momentum.
3. Market participants will be closely watching the headlines of the US-China negotiations.
If the two sides make further progress in trade and economic relations, risk flows may dominate the actions of financial markets, making it difficult for gold to find demand.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term technical outlook highlights the hesitation among gold buyers. The daily chart shows that the relative strength index (RSI) remains just below 50, and gold is struggling to move away from both the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA after breaking above both levels earlier this week.
If the price of gold falls to the key support level of $3,310 and fails to break down (trend line support/Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level), it will force a large number of shorts to exit the market and may further test the $3,340 range (psychological level/Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level).
Combined with the current trend, the downward momentum of gold has weakened, and it is seeking support to restart the long position
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3310-3320，SL：3290，Target: 3340
Gold Continues Mild Uptrend – Watching for Reaction at $3351📊 Market Overview:
Gold maintained its bullish momentum during the Asian–European session, rising from $3330 to $3344. A slightly weaker USD and safe-haven demand supported prices. However, price is now approaching a key resistance zone, where technical rejection may occur in the U.S. session.
________________________________________
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key near-term resistance: $3345 – $3351
• Stronger resistance (higher zone): $3360 – $3366 and $3374
• Nearest support: $3335 – $3332
• Stronger support (lower zone): $3322 – $3315
• EMA 09 (H1): Price is above EMA09 → confirms short-term uptrend
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum:
• Price is consolidating in an ascending triangle
• A breakout above $3345 may target $3360+
• RSI remains below overbought; volume is stable → room for continuation
________________________________________
📌 Outlook:
If gold holds above $3335 and breaks above $3351, the uptrend could extend toward the $3366–$3374 zone. However, failure to break $3351 followed by a drop below $3332 could lead to a deeper pullback toward $3315.
💡 Recommended Trading Strategies:
BUY XAU/USD: $3318 – $3315
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 PIPS
❌ SL: $3321
SELL XAU/USD: $3360 – $3363
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 PIPS
❌ SL: $3357
XAUUSD Technical Analysis – Educational Insight Key Observations:
🔴 Strong Support Zone (3,278 – 3,299 USD)
This zone has been highlighted as a key institutional level where buyers have consistently stepped in.
It aligns with previous Breaks of Structure (BOS), confirming its historical significance.
📉 Recent Price Action:
Price is retracing from the highs of around 3,439 USD and is approaching the strong support zone again.
A possible liquidity grab near the support is anticipated before a bullish reversal.
🔄 Break of Structure (BOS):
Multiple BOS marked indicate shifts in market direction and the presence of aggressive buying/selling phases.
These BOS events help identify trend continuation or reversal points.
🟢 Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A bullish FVG is present, indicating imbalance in price movement where institutions may look to fill orders.
Price previously reacted positively to this zone, indicating unfilled demand.
📈 Target Area:
A clearly marked target at 3,440.487 USD, which aligns with Buy-Side Liquidity, suggests a potential liquidity run.
This implies smart money may drive price upwards after collecting liquidity below support.
Volume Profile (VRVP):
The horizontal volume bars show the highest traded volume areas, providing confirmation for key support zones and BOS reactions.
🧠 Educational Insights:
BOS (Break of Structure) is used by institutional traders to spot shifts in trend. It typically signals continuation or reversal when aligned with liquidity concepts.
Liquidity Zones (like buy-side or sell-side liquidity) often serve as magnets for price; smart money aims to trigger orders and trap retail traders.
Fair Value Gaps represent imbalances where price moved too fast; institutions may return to these zones to execute pending orders.
Volume Profile Analysis helps in understanding where the most buying/selling occurred—confirming support and resistance zones.
📌 Strategy Suggestion (For Learning Only):
Entry Idea: Wait for price to tap the strong support (ideally sweep liquidity slightly below).
Confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing or BOS on lower timeframe to confirm reversal.
Target: 3,440 area where buy-side liquidity resides.
Stop Loss: Below the strong support (near 3,270 level) to protect against deeper liquidity grabs.
📢 Disclaimer (Educational Use Only):
This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk; always do your own research or consult a financial advisor.
XAU/USD 1H – Range Consolidation Below Ichimoku Cloud. Chart Review & Technical Insight
1. Ichimoku Cloud & Overall Structure
Price is below the Ichimoku Cloud, with the cloud ahead sloping downward—indicative of bearish short‑term momentum and resistance overhead as long as the cloud holds above price.
The Kijun-sen (blue) line is above the Tenkan-sen (red), reinforcing the bearish bias on this timeframe.
2. Price Action & Key Zones
A support zone around 3,327–3,330 USD/oz is visible, underpinned by multiple rejection taps and price consolidation (“$$$” zone). A clean break below could open the path toward the 3,320’s or lower imbalance region.
On the upside, resistance lies near 3,339–3,340, backed by the cloud’s lower boundary and the Kijun-sen level.
The highlighted green rectangle appears to signal a potential bullish breakout target zone toward 3,365–3,392, contingent on recovery above the cloud.
3. Momentum & Trade Considerations
Momentum is weak, with price moving sideways inside a low‑volatility rectangle on diminishing volume and few directional impulses.
Possible ABC corrective structure is forming as marked, suggesting price may oscillate sideways or continue correcting within established bounds.
A bullish scenario would require clearing the Ichimoku Cloud and resistance at 3,340–3,360 USD.
Conversely, a bearish breakdown below ~3,327 could confirm continuation deeper into the 3,320s or toward the next significant demand zone near 3,300 USD.
.
✅ Summary
Bias: Slightly bearish to neutral until price can clear the Ichimoku Cloud.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3,327–3,330 (immediate), then 3,320–3,300.
Resistance: 3,339–3,365, cloud top near 3,365, further target zone 3,392.
Scenarios:
Bullish breakout: Close above cloud → potential rally toward 3,365–3,392.
Bearish breakdown: Close below 3,327 → deeper correction toward 3,320 and lower imbalance areas.
15-minute timeframe for XAU/USDKey Elements and Observations:
Price Action:
The price initially shows a downtrend, breaking below a previous low, indicated by "BMS" (likely "Break in Market Structure" or "Break of Market Structure").
Following the break, the price consolidates and then shows a strong upward movement, breaking above a resistance level, again marked by "BMS." This suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Order Blocks (OB):
5 Min OB (Blue Box, Top Left): There's a "5 Min OB" marked at a higher price level earlier in the chart. This represents a bearish order block, where significant selling pressure was previously observed.
15 Min OB (Teal Box, Bottom Right): A "15 Min OB" is identified at a lower price level (around 3326.00 - 3330.00). This is likely a bullish order block, indicating an area where institutions or large players placed buy orders, leading to a bounce in price.
Break in Market Structure (BMS):
Two "BMS" labels are visible:
The first BMS (red dashed line below 3330.00) indicates a break of a support level during the downtrend.
The second BMS (red dashed line above 3330.00) indicates a break of a resistance level during the subsequent uptrend, confirming a potential shift in market bias to bullish.
Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit (Trade Setup):
Entry (Green Line): The suggested entry point for a long (buy) position is at approximately 3339.50. This entry aligns with a retest of a previous resistance level that has now turned into support, or potentially the lower boundary of a small bullish order block or fair value gap.
Stop Loss (Red Line/Red Box): The stop loss is set at 3335.50. This is placed below a recent low or significant support level, specifically within a red-shaded area that likely represents a "Supply/Demand" zone or an area where the trade would be invalidated.
Take Profit (Green Line/Green Box): The take profit target is 3354.00, resulting in a "Profit" of 3354.00. This target is placed at a significant resistance level or an area where price might reverse. The white shaded box above the entry, extending to the take profit, highlights the potential profit zone.
Risk-Reward Ratio: While not explicitly calculated, the visual representation suggests a favorable risk-reward, with the potential profit (green box) appearing larger than the potential loss (red box).
Pivot Point (P):
A "P (3345.227)" is marked on the chart, likely indicating a pivot point, which can act as a dynamic support or resistance level. The current price is trading above this pivot point, further supporting a bullish bias.
"BMS: 61.36%" (Bottom Right):
This percentage likely refers to a "Break in Market Structure" metric or a specific trading indicator that quantifies the strength or probability of the market structure shift. 61.36% suggests a reasonably strong confirmation.
Implied Trading Strategy:
The chart depicts a bullish reversal strategy, likely based on "Smart Money Concepts" or "ICT" (Inner Circle Trader) principles. The strategy involves:
Identifying a shift in market structure: Price breaking highs after breaking lows, signaling a change from bearish to bullish.
Utilizing Order Blocks: Using the 15 Min OB as a foundational support level and potentially looking for entry confirmations around it.
Waiting for a Retest/Pullback: The entry around 3339.50 suggests waiting for a pullback after the initial bullish impulse. This could be a retest of a broken resistance level, a fair value gap (FVG), or a small bullish order block within the larger 15 Min OB.
Placing Stop Loss Strategically: Below a significant low or invalidation point.
Targeting Previous Highs/Resistance: Setting the take profit at a logical resistance level where previous selling pressure was observed.
[XAUUSD] Gold Price Analysis July 28Symmetrical Channel Structure and High-Probability Trading Strategies
In today’s trading session (July 28), the XAUUSD 15-minute chart reveals a clear symmetrical channel pattern, indicating a technical correction after a previous strong uptrend.
1. Trend Structure
Phase 1 (July 18–23): Price moved within an ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows — a clear bullish structure.
Phase 2 (July 23–26): After peaking, price reversed into a descending channel, establishing a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, price is consolidating near the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing short-term support.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Price Level
Technical Significance 3,360 – 3,365
Key resistance zone – top of descending channel 3,345
Dynamic resistance – EMA21 on M15 3,320 – 3,315
Crucial support zone – lower boundary of channel 3,300
Psychological support & prior swing low (July 10)
3. Price Action and Indicators
Volume has gradually decreased, signaling potential weakening of selling momentum.
RSI on M15 has rebounded from the oversold zone, currently moving above 40, suggesting a short-term technical bounce.
EMA21 & EMA50 are still sloping downward, confirming short-term bearish pressure.
4. Intraday Trade Scenarios
✅ Scenario 1: Rebound Play from Channel Support
Entry: 3,320 – 3,325 (after bullish confirmation candle)
Stop Loss: Below 3,312
Take Profit: 3,345 – 3,355 (resistance zone & mid-channel)
⚠️ Scenario 2: Trend-Following Short from Resistance
Entry: 3,345 – 3,350 (if price rejects at EMA21 or channel resistance)
Stop Loss: Above 3,360
Take Profit: 3,320 – 3,310
5. Strategy Outlook
XAUUSD remains in a corrective bearish phase after a strong rally. As long as the 3,312 level holds, there’s potential for a technical rebound during the London–New York session. However, sellers remain in control unless price breaks and closes above 3,360.
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