Gold 1 Hr Up Up Up...Trend line possible as the channel hopefully continues, just cools off a bit after that lovely ride.
Goldlong
XAUUSD – Weekly Trade Plan(Nov 10 → Nov 14, 2025)
Bias: Neutral–Bullish, focusing on reaction zones between key supply and demand levels.
🌐 MARKET CONTEXT
Overview: After a strong rally earlier in Q4, Gold is now consolidating around the $4,000 zone, reflecting the tug-of-war between Fed rate-cut expectations and upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI & PPI).
Sentiment: Current sentiment leans slightly risk-off, as U.S. yields remain elevated, but safe-haven demand for Gold persists.
Expectations: The market is likely to remain range-bound / corrective until a clear macro catalyst appears.
Main Bias: Prioritize selling from supply zones and buying from demand zones, but always wait for structural confirmation (CHoCH / BOS) before entering.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (SMC + Liquidity Structure)
Structure: The market is moving in a sideways H4 range between 3,930 and 4,130.
Liquidity focus:
Above 4,130: Cluster of buy-side liquidity — potential for stop-hunt sweeps.
Below 3,930: Sell-side liquidity, untested low area.
Pattern outlook:
The 4,046–4,052 area has been tested twice, forming a potential mini-distribution zone.
The 3,928–3,930 demand zone remains untested — a possible liquidity sweep before rebound.
SMC Logic:
A fake BOS / sweep above 4,130 could trigger a strong short setup.
A sweep below 3,930 + CHoCH bullish could confirm a long setup.
🔑 KEY PRICE ZONES
Price Zone Type Description
4,130–4,128 🔻 SELL Zone #1 Major D1 supply zone & liquidity cluster above the range
4,046–4,044 🔻 SELL Zone #2 OB + POC + liquidity trap near previous highs
3,930–3,928 🟩 BUY Zone #1 H4 demand zone + SSL sweep potential
3,922 ⚠️ Stop Threshold Below this, short-term bullish bias invalidated
4,052 / 4,136 🧱 Stoploss Levels Corresponding stops for each sell setup
⚙️ TRADE SETUPS
✅ SELL SCENARIO 1 – HIGH SUPPLY (SWEEP ABOVE RANGE)
Entry: 4,130 – 4,128
Stoploss: 4,136
TP1: 4,046
TP2: 3,995
TP3: 3,930
Logic: Liquidity sweep above the range high, targeting distribution reaction from major supply.
✅ SELL SCENARIO 2 – RANGE SUPPLY REJECTION
Entry: 4,046 – 4,044
Stoploss: 4,052
TP1: 4,000
TP2: 3,930
TP3: 3,928
Logic: OB + VAL + liquidity confluence at top of range; wait for M5 CHoCH confirmation before entering.
✅ BUY SCENARIO – MAIN STRUCTURAL SUPPORT SWEEP
Entry: 3,930 – 3,928
Stoploss: 3,922
TP1: 3,995
TP2: 4,044
TP3: 4,128 (trail)
Logic: Sweep of SSL below previous low → bullish CHoCH confirmation → ideal Smart Money demand entry.
🧠 NOTES / SESSION PLAN
Focus on London session for potential buy setups near 3,930–3,928.
Watch New York session for sell setups at 4,046–4,128, especially if price sweeps liquidity first.
Avoid entering during major CPI / PPI news releases.
Use M5–M15 confirmations (CHoCH, FVG fill) before execution.
Avoid overtrading — wait for clear structural confirmation to reduce stop-hunt risk.
🏁 CONCLUSION
Gold continues to range between 3,930 ↔ 4,130, showing no clear breakout yet.
Primary setups:
Sell from 4,046–4,128, with stops at 4,052 / 4,136.
Buy from 3,930–3,928, with stop at 3,922.
Strategy: Trade both ends of the range with structure confirmation; avoid trading inside equilibrium.
For this week, focus on buy-the-dip below 3,930 and sell-the-rally between 4,046–4,130.
Market volatility, trade steadily.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
As mentioned last night, gold prices failed to break below the important short-term support level of 3965, so we maintain our bullish view. Although the intraday volatility was not high, the consolidation process can be seen as gold accumulating positions in the short term. Market breakout requires patience. Currently, the daily MA5 and MA10 moving averages are converging around 3980, which is also where the 4-hour middle band is located. The key resistance level in the short term is in the 4015-4030 area. A break above this level could lead to further gains towards 4050-4080.
It's important to be cautious given the recent volatile market with poor continuity. Therefore, even if a breakout occurs today, it is not advisable to rush to buy. Instead, wait for a pullback before entering the market to avoid being trapped by blindly chasing highs. The 3980-3965range remains the ideal entry point for bulls. Maintaining patience is always a key element in trading.
TRIANGLE FORMATIONSo given the low volatile week!
where will the gold break to from this triangle?
do comment!
im betting on buying on the lower side of triangle
Gold sideway around $4000 — waiting for a decisive breakout1️⃣ Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating between $3994–$3998, maintaining a narrow range of $3990–$4000 for several hours.
The market is lacking fresh momentum as investors await upcoming U.S. economic data.
Both the USD and Treasury yields are moving sideways, keeping gold in consolidation mode without a clear breakout.
2️⃣ Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: $4005 – $4012
• Support: $3985 – $3975
• EMA50 (H1): holding near $3989 → short-term dynamic support.
• Consecutive small-bodied H1 candles with balanced wicks indicate a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• RSI (H1) remains neutral around 50 → market is waiting for a breakout signal.
3️⃣ Market Outlook:
• This is a consolidation phase before a potential breakout, likely to occur within the next few hours.
• If H1 closes above $4005, gold could extend its rally toward $4025–$4040.
• Conversely, if price breaks below $3985, a short-term correction could be triggered toward $3970–$3955.
4️⃣ Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3985 – $3982
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3979
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $4012 – $4015
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4019
Gold continues to gain after breakout — tighten focus on key lev📊 Market Behaviour
The price of Gold (XAU/USD) broke above the consolidation zone and is currently advancing with less hesitation — the momentum now leans bullish as the sideway phase fades. Meanwhile, macro factors such as safe-haven demand and dollar softening support the uptrend.
🧭 Technical Analysis
• Immediate resistance: ~$4018 – $4030
• Support zones: ~$4004 – $4000 near the previous breakout level
• On a 1-hour chart, the breakout above the consolidation gives a bullish bias, but momentum indicators suggest some cooling off — watch for possible pullback to retest support before further advances.
• A sustained drop below the $4000 area would signal a trend check; conversely, a clean push above $4030 with volume would suggest a move toward higher targets.
💡 Outlook
Given current breakout action, the short-term trend has turned bullish. The next move likely targets the $4030 region and possibly beyond, provided support holds above $4000. If momentum wanes, a retest of $4000–$4004 would be a natural pause zone before any further breakout.
🎯 Trading Strategy Suggestion
🔺 Buy Setup
Entry: $4008 – $4012 (on pullback to support)
Target: $4030+
Stop Loss: $3995
🟡 Alternate Setup (if momentum stalls)
Sell/short only if price closes H1 below $4000; then target $3980 or $3965, with stop above $4008.
Gold – Buy around 3985, target 4020-4060Gold Market Analysis:
Gold saw a strong upward surge yesterday, with prices consistently rising and even reaching 4000. However, it dipped back to 3965 during the US session, which is typical of the market. We placed buy orders at 3990 and 4004 yesterday and profited. Today, we expect a consolidation phase with opportunities for both buying and selling. The NFP employment data is anticipated to push gold out of this consolidation. Yesterday's daily chart showed a doji candlestick, and today's resistance level is yesterday's high. A break above this level could lead to further gains. Recent daily price action has been volatile, with several consecutive days of consolidation. The current movement is a significant correction after a sharp drop. The long-term trend for gold still depends on the weekly chart signals, and the current weekly top signal remains intact.
Today, pay attention to the 3956 and 3965 levels. A break below these levels would warrant a bearish shift in strategy. The current trading range is 3965-3940. During the Asian session, consider buying on dips. Yesterday's US session saw a pullback, and buying in initiated a new upward move. Resistance is around 4003 and 4020. The US session includes NFP data; before the data release, continue the strategy of buying on dips within the range, aiming for a rebound.
Support: 3965 and 3956, minor support: 3983, resistance: 4003 and 4020. The key level for market strength/weakness is 4000.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today's NFP employment data will change market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, but in the long term, the possibility of further interest rate cuts is greater.
Trading Recommendation:
Gold – Buy around 3985, target 4020-4060.
LONG ON GOLD XAU/USDGold has swept sell side liquidity and has given us a choc (change or character) to the upside.
There is tons of buyside liquidity to the upside with huge FVG's (Fair value gaps) and equal highs (double top) that need to be mitigated.
I am buying gold looking to catch over 200-300 points.
That's 2000-3000 pips.
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) — expecting a retracement into a demand/Fibonacci zone before a continuation to the upside toward the target at 4,030.68.
Here’s the detailed breakdown
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Overall Idea
The analysis suggests a pullback-entry buy scenario, where Gold is expected to retrace to a key Fibonacci confluence + trendline support zone, then resume the uptrend toward 4,030.
This setup fits the Smart Money Concept (SMC) and market structure shift logic — from bearish to bullish.
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Key Components
1. Market Structure Shift
Price broke above the descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
The pullback is seen as a retest of the breakout zone, which often becomes a new support area.
The overall expectation is for a higher-low formation, leading to continuation upward.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Zone
The 0.5–0.79 retracement area (highlighted blue box) is the ideal buy zone.
Price is expected to tap into this area before continuing higher.
The 0.705 Fibonacci level aligns with the previous structure and EMAs, adding confluence.
3. EMA Confluence
50 EMA (3,986.37) and 200 EMA (4,007.71) are key dynamic levels.
Price is retesting around the 50 EMA, which supports the idea of a bullish continuation if respected.
Once price breaks above the 200 EMA, momentum confirmation strengthens.
4. Projected Path
The expected pattern:
➤ Pullback into 0.62–0.79 zone →
➤ Formation of a higher low →
➤ Impulsive move toward 4,030.68 target point.
The projected move aligns with structure and Fibonacci extension.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary
Market bias: Bullish
Setup type: Retracement buy / Trend continuation
Entry zone: 3,975–3,985 (Fibonacci 0.62–0.79 area)
Target point: 4,030.68
Confirmation: Bullish rejection from zone or structure break above 4,000
Invalidation: Break below 3,960 (previous swing low)
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pelas support boost 🚀 this analysis
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Stuck in Sideway channel [11.6.2025]Hi guys, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
At present, OANDA:XAUUSD is moving sideways within a well-defined H1 channel, showing signs of short-term consolidation after recent volatility. The market is currently lacking a clear directional bias, as both buyers and sellers are testing the upper and lower bounds of this intraday structure. Such conditions often favor range-trading strategies, where precision and timing become crucial for capturing short bursts of momentum.
In this context, our plan today remains straightforward and tactical — trade directly off the trendlines of the channel. In other words, we will look to buy at the lower boundary of the range and sell near the upper boundary, while also being prepared to switch positions if a breakout occurs in either direction.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
(1) ENTRY: 4015 - 4025
SL: 4030
TP: 4050
(2) ENTRY: 4060 - 4080
SL: 4090
TP: 4000 - 3955
Risk Management:
- Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
- Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals.
- Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions.
- Reassess bias once the H1 channel is clearly broken.
Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a sideways consolidation phase within its H1 channel, awaiting fresh catalysts to determine direction. Until a decisive breakout occurs, the most effective approach is range trading — buying near support, selling near resistance, and reacting dynamically to any confirmed breakout.
The plan today is simple yet strategic:
Patience and discipline will be key to capitalizing on this quiet yet potentially explosive setup.
HAVE A NICE DAY, GUYS!
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a clean structure suggesting continuation toward the 200 EMA. Here's the idea summary:
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Analysis Idea: Bullish Continuation Setup
1. Structure Overview:
Price is currently trading above the ascending trendline, showing a short-term bullish bias.
The 50 EMA (3,974.93) has recently been retested and held as support.
The 200 EMA (4,011.37) acts as the next resistance / target point.
2. Setup Logic:
After a breakout above the 50 EMA, price is forming a retest zone (highlighted box).
A bullish reaction from this zone aligns with the trendline confluence and EMA support.
This suggests buyers may step in again to push price higher.
3. Entry & Target:
Entry Zone: Near 3,974–3,978 (trendline + EMA confluence area).
Target: 4,011 (200 EMA / key resistance).
Stop Loss: Below 3,965 (below the trendline and retest box).
4. Market Psychology:
Recent candles show higher lows and strong bullish momentum after rejection from previous lows.
Break and retest of dynamic resistance (50 EMA) supports bullish continuation.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trade Idea Summary:
Bias Entry Zone Stop Loss Target Confirmation
Bullish 3,974–3,978 <3,965 4,011 Bounce from trendline or bullish candle pattern
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Pelas support boost 🚀 this analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) – Technical Outlook
The gold price is currently trading around the key pivot level of 4000. We highlight the following scenarios:
If the price stabilizes above 4000, the bullish scenario is expected to continue toward the resistance levels of 4030 and 4081, with the potential to extend further to 4133.
However, if the price breaks below the pivot level of 4000, a corrective move may occur toward the strong support zone at 3930. This level is considered a major support area — a confirmed break and stabilization below 3930 on the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframe would signal a deeper decline toward 3865.
Key Levels:
Pivot Zone: 4000
Resistance Levels: 4030, 4081
Support Levels: 3930, 3895
We firmly go long when the market is blindly shorting.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
From the hourly chart, the short-term gold price has broken through the resistance of the triangle pattern boundary. The market has made its choice, and it is clear that we bulls have won. Therefore, we can continue to execute our trading strategy for the next step. Wait for a pullback to 3995-3985 to buy again, with an initial target of 4020-4030.
The correction is over; buy gold on pullbacks.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
With the White House website indicating the ongoing US government shutdown, the normal release of key data such as ADP and NFP may be affected. The news briefly boosted gold prices, leading to a technical rebound in Asian trading.
From the daily chart, the short-term resistance is still around 3980-4000, which is also where the 4H middle line is located. For the bulls to make a full comeback, they need to break through this resistance range and hold above 4000. The current slow and volatile upward trend in gold prices indicates that the bulls still have room to maneuver. In the short term, one can try to continue to be bullish on gold by using the middle line of the hourly chart as a defense. Conservative traders can wait for a pullback to 3970-3955 to try to go long on gold.
Gold – Buy around 3960, target 3980-4000Gold Market Analysis:
Gold rebounded sharply yesterday after touching 3930. The expected rebound followed by a further decline didn't materialize; instead, it underwent a significant correction and consolidation at higher levels. The daily candlestick pattern closed positive again, indicating significant buying and selling pressure due to the alternating bullish and bearish candles. Finding the right rhythm during short-term consolidation is crucial. Today's strategy for gold is to maintain a bearish overall trend while expecting short-term consolidation, with opportunities for both buying and selling. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are about to cross, potentially indicating a direction today. Note the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data; a large one-sided trend is unlikely. We anticipate needing the NFP to provide direction. Our target direction is a breakout from the short-term consolidation. Today, focus on the 3990 level during the Asian session; a break above this level would trigger a new buying opportunity, forming a large V-shaped pattern on the 4-hour chart. For the Asian session, look for two buying opportunities: a slight dip to the 3965-3960 area, and a pullback after breaking 3990. Gold's consolidation will likely be volatile; chasing the market today requires confirmation of signals to avoid losses. Our strategy for gold remains to follow the trend and trade based on understanding the market.
Support levels are 3965 and 3956, with strong support at 3930. Resistance is at 3990, with strong resistance at 4020. The key level for market strength/weakness is 3990.
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday's ADP employment data was -2.9, with an expected 2.8, but the result was 4.8. The positive data is bearish for gold, but gold only saw a small rebound, so the reaction was not significant .
Trading Recommendation:
Gold – Buy around 3960, target 3980-4000.
Gold rebounds from 3974, short-term trend turns bullish1. Market Overview:
During the European session, gold dropped sharply from 3985 to 3956 but quickly rebounded after touching the key support area around 3974. The price is now fluctuating near 3980, indicating that dip buyers have re-entered the market after the short-term correction.
2. Technical Analysis:
• Short-term trend: Neutral to slightly bullish
• Resistance levels: 3988 – 3995 / 4010 – 4025
• Support levels: 3974 – 3960 / 3945 – 3930
• The price is currently trading above the EMA20 and EMA50 on the H1 timeframe, and the bullish candle bounce confirms 3974 as a short-term support.
• If the price sustains above 3975, the upward move could extend toward 3995 – 4010.
3. Outlook:
Gold is currently sideways in accumulation mode between 3950–3990. Buyers are regaining control, but a clear breakout above 3988 is needed to confirm further upside momentum.
4. Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: 3975–3978
🎯 TP: 3990 / 4005 / 4020
🛑 SL: 3960
🟢 Strategy: Buy continuation as long as price holds above 3975
________________________________________
🔻 SELL XAU/USD (only if price fails to break 3988–3995)
Entry: 3988–3995
🎯 TP: 3970 / 3956 / 3935
🛑 SL: 4005
US Employment Data Positive for GOLD Prices. Can GOLD reverse?GOLD is declining in falling channel pattern however seems to be taking support at the marked trendline.
US Employment data came just in where number of jobs added was better than expectations which would mean a stronger labour market and inflation might stay elevated which is good for GOLD/SILVER due to safe haven demand in the long term.
Keep an eye on GOLD prices.
XAUUSD - Time to buy...XAUUSD was in a short term downtrend for a few weeks but has now shown some clear bullish movements ahead. XAUUSD (Gold) has broken out of a downward trend channel that was acting as strong resistance, The price is very likely to head to the next resistance level which is market as the take profit zone (green line). Time to buy!
Gold – Technical Outlook🔴 Bearish Scenario (Downtrend)
Pivot Level: 4000
If price trades below 4000, continuation to the downside is expected.
🎯 First target: 3930 (support zone)
If 3930 breaks → full bearish extension towards:
🎯 Next targets: 3895 – 3865
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Uptrend)
If price breaks and holds above 4000, upside momentum will strengthen.
🎯 First target: 4030 (resistance zone)
If 4030 breaks and holds on the 1H or 4H timeframe → strong bullish continuation towards:
🎯 Next targets: 4081 – 4133
Chart Analysis (XAUUSD, 4H), Smart Volume–Structure Matrix Smart Volume–Structure Matrix | Smart Money Flow & Dynamic Blocks
This chart combines four complementary analytical modules, each providing a unique perspective on market structure and smart money flow:
- Smart Money Support/Resistance: Identifies buy/sell volume-based zones of accumulation or distribution.
- ATAI Volume (Breakout/Phase/OB-OS): Detects directional volume pressure, market phases (Accumulation/Distribution), and overbought/oversold extremes.
- Smart Money Dynamics Blocks (Pearson Matrix & P25 HL2): Measures price correlation and regression-style parallel bands.
- Volume Pressure (Wings & Angles): Calculates normalized momentum angles using ATR to assess directional bias.
Together, they form a multidimensional framework for detecting smart money flow, trend shifts, and potential reversals.
Chart Analysis (XAUUSD, 4H)
Price is trading within a compressed descending channel between red dynamic resistance lines and the lower P25 HL2 band. It is currently consolidating near the Smart Money support zone around 3995–4015. The 4221–4266 range marks the key resistance where a breakout could confirm a mid-term trend reversal.
Volume analysis shows a cumulative delta trough forming at the lower boundary — a sign of seller exhaustion. The ATAI module shows improving buyer ratio and declining sell pressure, suggesting an early phase of re-accumulation. Pearson Blocks indicate an R+ alignment near support, confirming correlation with recent bullish microstructure.
Main Bias: Bullish Reversal.
- Trigger 1: 4H close above the blue pivot line (mid-range) and breakout from the descending wedge.
- Trigger 2: Positive delta confirmation and buyer ratio ≥ 55% on LTF.
- Targets: 4060–4080 → 4140 → 4210–4260 (structural resistance target).
- Invalidation: 4H close below 3995 (breakdown under lower HL2 band).
Alternative Scenario: Short-term continuation of bearish pressure if breakout fails and new delta low forms. In that case, pullbacks toward the blue pivot will act as short-selling opportunities down to the lower band.
Risk Management: Place stops below the last swing/HL2 band with ATR buffer. Scale out at each target and move stops to breakeven after the first objective.
Summary: Confluence of Smart Money Support, Delta trough, R+ Pearson, and HL2 band contact creates a high-probability reversal setup with favorable risk-to-reward. Confirmation requires breakout and positive delta shift. Structural target remains 4210–4260.
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - Sideway Channel H1 [10.29.2025]Hi traders, Anfibo's here!
XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Plan
Overall Picture:
At present, OANDA:XAUUSD is moving sideways within a well-defined H1 channel, showing signs of short-term consolidation after recent volatility. The market is currently lacking a clear directional bias, as both buyers and sellers are testing the upper and lower bounds of this intraday structure. Such conditions often favor range-trading strategies, where precision and timing become crucial for capturing short bursts of momentum.
In this context, our plan today remains straightforward and tactical — trade directly off the trendlines of the channel. In other words, we will look to buy at the lower boundary of the range and sell near the upper boundary, while also being prepared to switch positions if a breakout occurs in either direction.
Trading Plan for Today:
>>> SELL ZONE:
ENTRY: 4060 - 4080
SL: 4090
TP: 4000 - 3955
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 3940 - 3950
SL: 3930
TP: 4000 - 4045 - 4070
Risk Management:
- Stick to small-to-medium positions within the range; increase size only on confirmed breakouts.
- Keep stops tight, as sideways phases tend to trigger false signals.
- Maintain Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 and avoid overtrading in choppy conditions.
- Reassess bias once the H1 channel is clearly broken.
Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a sideways consolidation phase within its H1 channel, awaiting fresh catalysts to determine direction. Until a decisive breakout occurs, the most effective approach is range trading — buying near support, selling near resistance, and reacting dynamically to any confirmed breakout.
The plan today is simple yet strategic:
“Buy at the trendline, sell at the trendline — and flip when the channel breaks.”
Patience and discipline will be key to capitalizing on this quiet yet potentially explosive setup.
GOODLUCK GUYS!
XAUUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Key SupportGold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the buy entry, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this levle to the upside.
Buy entry is at 3,969.18, whic is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss is at 3,794.07, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracemnt.
Take profit is at 4,070.26, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
XAUUSD Bullish Flag: Breakout Above 4,150 Toward 4,400Gold (XAUUSD) ripped higher from late August and topped just below 4,400 before slipping into a tidy pullback. Price is now hovering near 3,940 with momentum cooled and volatility contracting—classic flag behavior after a vertical pole. Structure remains bullish on higher timeframes, even as the short-term trend corrects. The 20-day average near ~4,085 is capping price, while immediate demand sits around 3,930.
The primary path is continuation: a daily close above 4,150 would clear the flag top and the MA20, opening room for a run back into the 4,380–4,400 supply zone. If momentum builds, expect a retest of the mid-October high at 4,400; interim buoyancy above ~4,100 would support a grind toward 4,340 before the final push. Accumulation near 3,930–3,950 is higher risk, and should be reserved for clear reversal signals.
If buyers fail to defend 3,930–3,920, the setup breaks. A daily close below 3,920 invalidates the flag and puts 3,780 (near the MA60 ~3,773) on the map, with rallies likely to be sold beneath 4,040–4,085 until structure repairs. Clean line in the sand for longs sits just under 3,920, with protective stops around ~3,900.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
