Gold Technical Outlook: Gold
📈 Upside Scenario (Bullish)
The current trading level is around the break-even point of 4180. We can note that the current trend suggests trading around this break-even point with a bullish direction aiming to reach the resistance line at 4218.
Confirmation: Breaking the resistance line at 4218 and closing a 1-hour candle above it will fully support the upside trend.
Targets: The movement will be towards reaching the levels of 4245 and 4265.
📉 Downside Scenario (Bearish)
If the price manages to make a correction and breaks the break-even point of 4180 downwards, the trend will become bearish, aiming to reach the support line at 4165.
Continuation: To continue the descent towards the level of 4145, the 4165 support level must be broken.
Summary of Key Levels
Break-even Area: 4180
Upside Targets: 4218, 4245, 4265
Downside Targets/Supports: 4165, 4145
Goldmansachs
The Calm Before the Storm: How to Position Your Gold#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold prices are currently falling slowly and have already broken below 4190. In the short term, if the decline continues, it may test the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart around 4180. If it touches this level for the first time before the interest rate announcement, a small long position can be considered. I have marked the other key points on the map. You can refer to the layout of the key points. In conclusion, the interest rate itself was not the key point of this interest rate decision, the dot plot, economic forecasts, and bond-buying program were the deciding factors. Correspondingly, gold is highly likely to experience significant volatility tonight, without a doubt.
As long as the trend support holds, the outlook remains bullish#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Looking at the intraday trend, the overall volatility was very limited, but it did not break the upward trend line. The short-term support level to watch is 4200-4185. If the price does not break through the support level on the first pullback, we can continue to consider going long on gold. Pay attention to the short-term resistance level at 4235-4245.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
TVC:GOLD Gold continues to trade steadily above the $4,163–$4,147 support zone, holding within a broader consolidation while respecting the mid-term bullish structure. Price has repeatedly rejected the support band, showing that buyers are still defending the lower boundary. On the topside, the $4,251–$4,268 resistance zone remains the key ceiling—this is where sellers have consistently stepped in.
The current 4H structure shows a potential pullback into support before buyers attempt another run toward the resistance zone. As long as gold holds above $4,163, the bullish bias remains intact. A clean break below this level would flip the structure bearish and expose
deeper downside.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy from support, targeting a retest of the resistance zone.
Entry: $4,163 – $4,147
Stop Loss: $4,138
Take Profit 1: $4,251
Take Profit 2: $4,268
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.45
Bias stays bullish as long as price holds above the support zone. A 4H close below $4,138 invalidates this upside scenario.
🌐 Macro Background (Simple Version)
Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this Wednesday, with traders pricing in almost a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, so rate-cut expectations naturally support the metal.
At the same time, China continues increasing its gold reserves, marking a 13-month buying streak. This steady central-bank demand adds an extra layer of support beneath gold prices.
U.S. data, such as the stronger-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (53.3), briefly lifted the USD, but not enough to offset the broader rate-cut narrative. Overall, the macro tone remains mildly supportive for gold as long as markets believe the Fed will ease policy this week.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $4,251 – $4,268
Support Zone: $4,163 – $4,147
📌 Trade Summary
Gold holds steady above key support as markets wait for the Fed’s decision. With rate-cut expectations high and China continuing to buy gold, dips into support remain attractive for buyers targeting the $4,250–$4,270 zone. The setup stays constructive unless price closes below $4,138.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant
XUA/USD) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of GOLD (XAUUSD) – 1H SMC Analysis
1. Key Observations
Double Liquidity Grab at Equal Highs
Price swept the same major high twice (red arrows).
This indicates liquidity engineered to fuel a move lower.
Classic SMC POI: strong reversal probability after 2nd sweep.
Distribution Phase Between Sweeps
Blue highlighted zones show consolidation after each run.
Market is using this zone to accumulate sell orders.
Implies price imbalance exists underneath.
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2. Current Market Structure
Shift from Bullish → Bearish
Break below recent demand suggests market structure shift.
Short-term trend now bearish until proven otherwise.
Price at 200 EMA Support
Price hit the 200 EMA and bounced slightly.
Temporary reaction + corrective pullback is expected.
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3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Setup
The blue box zone marks a bearish FVG / imbalance zone:
Likely area for retracement before continuation down.
Price should retrace into 4218–4232 zone.
This aligns with:
Premium zone
Supply region
FVG mitigation
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4. Projected Move
Primary Scenario (Bearish)
1. Pullback → into FVG (4218–4232)
2. Reaction lower → break structure
3. Pullback lower high → continuation
4. Move towards downside liquidity
Target Zone:
4,157.52
– Marked as “target point” on chart
– Confluence:
Previous swing low
Liquidity pool
Discount zone
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5. Why Downside Targets Make Sense
Above liquidity already harvested
Trend shift confirmed
FVG awaiting mitigation
Liquidity sitting below lows shown by arrows at bottom
Market likely wants to collect liquidity below December lows.
This is a high-probability SMC continuation setup.
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Trade Plan Idea
Potential Short Entry:
4218–4232 (FVG / supply zone)
Confirmation:
Rejection wick
BOS on lower TF (5–15m)
Stops:
Above sweep zone
≥ 4250 ideal
Targets:
1. 4170
2. 4157 (main target)
3. Extended: 4145 (if momentum strong)
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6. Risk Notes
Gold is volatile, especially around US sessions.
Avoid chasing shorts at current level.
Best R:R is waiting for pullback into premium zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Overall Thesis:
This chart is showing a textbook SMC reversal setup:
Liquidity sweep at highs
Structure break
Pullback to FVG
Downside trend continuation
Bias: Bearish until FVG mitigated and lower low formed.
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The overall trend remains unchanged, it's still a bullish market#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has now broken out of the triangle pattern. Looking at the daily, 4H, and hourly charts, MA5 is around 4215. Furthermore, the short-term moving averages are showing an upward trend. Therefore, I believe we can consider taking a small long position in gold when it retraces to around 4215-4205 during the European session.
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of — good setup. Here’s how I interpret the trade-idea (and also what to watch out for) based on what you sent. I’m reading it as a bullish breakout / reversal setup on Gold (XAU/USD).
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What I like about the idea
• Breakout of a descending trendline
On your chart, price looks to have broken above a downward-sloping trendline. A break out of a descending trendline often signals a shift from bearish pressure to bullish potential, especially after a consolidation. That suggests the prior downtrend may be ending and bulls could be stepping in. This is a standard signal in trendline-based analysis.
If the breakout holds — ideally with a clean close above the trendline and possibly a retest — many traders view that as a buying opportunity.
• Support / demand zone (or “base”) near breakout
The chart highlights a horizontal “box” (support / demand zone) around the breakout area. Price rebounding from a support/demand zone adds strength to the case that buyers are defending that level. Support/resistance zones tend to have more significance when they’ve flipped (resistance → support or vice versa).
Combining a horizontal support zone with a trendline — i.e. “confluence” — often increases the probability that price will respect that level. Confluence zones are valued because they combine multiple types of support/resistance.
• Defined target (liquidity / previous structure)
Your chart has a “target point” drawn above, implying an expectation of a move upward if breakout succeeds. That aligns with a typical breakout-and-run approach: breakout → retest/support hold → move toward next resistance or “liquidity area.” This is standard in breakout trading strategies.
Using structured levels (support, breakout zone, target/resistance) helps with risk/reward planning — which is good trading discipline.
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What to watch out for — risks & what needs confirmation
Even good setups can fail. Here are what needs to play out for this idea to hold up:
False breakout / fakeout risk — Breakouts above trendlines or zones sometimes reverse quickly (so-called “fakeouts”). Price might retest and then reject — especially if volume is weak.
Need for confirmation — For a safer trade, wait for price action confirmation: e.g. a clean candle close above the trendline + support, possibly a retest of the breakout zone that holds. Jumping in without confirmation increases risk.
Overhead supply / resistance ahead — Even if breakout is successful, there may be supply/resistance zones above (previous highs, order blocks, or fair value gaps), which could limit upside. The target is “defined,” so better not overextend.
Trend context matters — On higher timeframes, the broader trend may still be bearish or neutral, so this could just be a counter-trend bounce rather than a full-blown reversal. Breakouts on lower timeframes sometimes end up as short corrections rather than long trends.
Risk management essential — Without proper stop-loss (e.g. below support/zone or below recent swing low) and defined risk-reward ratio, the trade can turn quickly against you — especially in volatile markets like gold.
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My “Trade-Plan” based on this Setup (if I were you)
If I were to trade this setup, I’d approach it like this:
Entry: After a breakout — ideally after a clean candle close above the descending trendline and preferably after a retest of the breakout zone (the blue box).
Stop-Loss: Just below the lower edge of the support / demand zone (or below the breakout retest low) — to protect against false breakouts.
Target(s): Use the drawn “target point” as main target. Possibly take partial profit there, then trail stop / re-assess.
Trade only if confirmation appears: e.g. strong bullish candle(s), decent volume, no signs of immediate rejection.
Risk-Reward ratio check: Make sure risk vs potential reward justifies the trade before entering.
Mr SMC Trading point
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XAU/USD Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAUUSD (Gold) – Bullish Reversal Expectation
Timeframe: 1H
Current Price: ~ 4189
Indicators:
50 EMA (blue) above price → short-term bearish momentum recently
200 EMA (black) touched → strong long-term support
Key Support Zone: 4160 – 4170 area successfully held
Market Structure Insight
Price bounced strongly from the major support zone where liquidity was grabbed below previous lows.
Rejection candle off the 200 EMA + support region indicates buyers stepped in aggressively.
Expected scenario: Market may form a higher low → start bullish continuation.
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Bullish Forecast Path
The sketched projection shows:
1. Pullback and retest near 50 EMA (4210 zone)
2. Break of structure highs
3. Continuation to targets
Target Levels
Level Purpose
4264 First take profit / previous structure top
4300 Final target / strong resistance
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Key Confirmation Required
For the bullish plan to stay valid:
Price must hold above 4160 zone
Break and close above 4208–4215 for continuation strength
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Trade Idea Concept
> Buy from support zone retest or break above 4210
SL: below 4155
TP1: 4264
TP2: 4300
Mr SMC Trading point
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Overall Idea Summary
Strong bullish rejection from key support
Liquidity sweep + EMA confluence
High potential for reversal continuation
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Market volatility, pay attention to the daily MA10.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Today's market closed below the MA5 on the daily chart, with short-term resistance at 4210-4220. The current market trend is weak, and it may continue to test the support near the daily MA10. If it touches the 4170-4160 area for the first time, you can consider a small long position. If the downward momentum continues strongly, it may further test the 50% retracement level around 4145.
The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core support.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
✅ From the daily chart, gold prices are still above the MA5 and MA10. A prudent approach is to wait for a pullback to buy, or continue to use a buy-low-sell-high strategy until key resistance is broken. With the moving averages rising, the first support level to watch today is 4205-4195. If the price finds support and stabilizes in this area and strengthens again, the first resistance level to watch is the 4260-4270 area. This level represents both the previous high and a key level determining whether gold can hold above the 4300 mark.
✅ It is worth noting that if the price breaks below the support range of 4205-4195, it may retest the 4160-4140 area. It is particularly important to note that repeated testing of the same support level often signals weakness, and a cautious approach is necessary.
Technical corrections do not mean reversal of the bullish trend#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
📊 From the current structure, gold rebounded to a high of around 4264 yesterday before fluctuating downwards.
💠 However, the price of gold has not yet effectively broken below the daily MA5 and MA10, and there is still some support below.
📈 The brief pullback is a build-up for a better rise later.
🌈 As I said yesterday, the technical indicators showed a bearish divergence, indicating a need for technical correction. Therefore, it is not surprising that gold prices will fall in the short term.
💡 The key focus for today is the daily MA5 and MA10. The first support level is at 4205-4195. If the price retraces to this level, you can consider a small long position in gold, with appropriate SL orders.
💡 If the price falls below the 4205-4195 support zone, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines and not rush into further trading. Because the downside potential may open up, the price may fall back to the 4160-4140 Fibonacci retracement zone in the short term. This area will determine whether the upward trend can continue. Pay close attention to any stabilization signals in this area during the day.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: $GS) : $2B Innovator Deal Boosts ETF PowerGoldman Sachs (NYSE: NYSE:GS ) is taking a major leap in the fast-growing ETF market with its $2 billion acquisition of Innovator Capital Management. The deal brings in a powerful lineup of 161 U.S.-listed ETFs managing nearly $30 billion in assets, instantly strengthening Goldman’s position in defined outcome products—one of the hottest ETF segments today. Innovator is widely recognized for pioneering “buffer” ETFs, which use options to offer downside protection in exchange for capped upside. These strategies have surged in popularity as investors seek structured, rules-based approaches to managing risk.
Innovator’s products carry a median expense ratio of 0.79%, translating to roughly $237 million in annual revenue at current AUM levels. Beyond U.S. equities, its strategies span various indexes and asset classes, giving Goldman broader reach and deeper ETF diversification. Before the acquisition, Goldman ranked 18th among U.S. ETF issuers with $51.4 billion in assets. Combined with Innovator, it climbs to 16th place—leapfrogging Global X and Direxion. Still, joining the top 10 will require significantly more scale.
CEO David Solomon highlighted the accelerating growth of active ETFs, noting their role in reshaping public markets. Although defined outcome ETFs are technically active, they operate as disciplined, systematic strategies, making them attractive to investors seeking predictable payoff structures.
Technical analysis
Goldman Sachs stock remains firmly bullish. Price action continues to respect an ascending trendline established after breaking a key resistance level. The next major resistance sits near $841, the previous high. As long as the trendline holds, GS maintains strong upside momentum, with the trendline itself acting as dynamic support.
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAUUSD Trade Idea Breakdown (1H Chart)
Your chart reflects a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Fibonacci retracement + liquidity sweep model.
The idea is well-structured and follows a typical pullback → mitigation → expansion sequence.
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1. Current Market Structure
Price is currently around 4215.
Market is in a clear uptrend (higher highs, higher lows).
Candles show bullish momentum but the chart suggests price is in a premium zone (overbought area), due for a correction.
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2. Expected Pullback Zone (Entry Area)
You marked a high-probability discount demand zone:
Buy Zone: 4172 – 4185
This area aligns with:
Fibonacci 0.62 – 0.79
0.705 sweet-spot entry
Previous demand block
200 EMA + 50 EMA convergence acting as dynamic support
This zone is ideal for:
Liquidity grab + bullish reversal
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3. Anticipated Price Action
Your projection shows:
1. Price first drops into the blue demand zone
2. Hits the 0.705 / 0.79 fib area
3. Forms a bullish rejection
4. Then breaks structure upward
5. Begins a bullish impulse targeting new higher highs
This is a typical SMC “retrace → BOS → continuation” model.
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4. Upside Targets
You have 2 projected take-profit levels:
TP1: 4,233
First major liquidity pool
Aligns with an internal range high
Realistic target for intraday trading
TP2: 4,270
More extended target
Next external liquidity
Matches a larger swing high
Both targets fit the structure perfectly.
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5. Summary of the Idea
Component Direction
Trend Bullish
Expected move Pullback → Buy → Breakout
Buy zone 4172–4185
Confirmation Reversal + BOS
TP1 4233
TP2 4270
Mr SMC Trading point
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Overall Evaluation
Your analysis is clean, logical, and follows SMC principles correctly:
Trend aligned
Demand zone valid
FIB confluence
Multiple liquidity targets
Good structure projections
This is a strong bullish continuation setup as long as price holds above 4170.
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XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAUUSD – Idea of the Analysis (1H Timeframe)
1. Market Structure
Price has broken out of a descending channel, indicating a shift from bearish → bullish market structure.
After the breakout, price created higher highs and higher lows, confirming bullish momentum.
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2. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Refill Zone
You marked a bullish FVG exactly where price recently retraced.
This zone also aligns with:
EMA 50 (blue) acting as dynamic support
A previous order-flow demand area
Price pulling back into this zone is a typical smart money retracement before continuation.
This makes your FVG a high-probability re-entry zone.
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3. EMA Confluence
EMA 50 is above EMA 200 → bullish trend.
Price is attempting to bounce from the EMA50 and FVG simultaneously.
EMAs supporting the FVG adds trend confirmation + strong confluence.
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4. Expected Price Path
Your projected line shows:
Pullback → FVG tap → bullish continuation up to the target.
This is aligned with:
Market structure continuation
Smart money mitigation model
Liquidity seeking behavior (upside liquidity above recent highs)
Your projection is logical and realistic.
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5. Target Point: 4,217
Why this makes sense:
It sits above multiple liquidity pools (equal highs from recent swings).
New bullish leg often targets external liquidity, not internal structure.
Fits with the current bullish structure after the breakout.
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6. Trade Idea Summary
Long Position Bias
Entry Zone:
Inside the FVG block (around 4,106–4,110)
Confirmation:
Strong bullish candle reaction
Sweep of intraday lows inside FVG
EMA50 hold
Target:
4,217
Invalidation / Stop-Loss:
Below FVG zone & EMA200 (~4,085)
Mr SMC Trading point
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7. Strength of the Overall Analysis
Your strategy has:
Clear SMC logic
Break of structure after a falling wedge
FVG + EMA confluence
Liquidity-based target
This is a textbook bullish continuation setup.
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Thanksgiving volatility is limited, precise strategy is key.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
🙏Today is Thanksgiving, and the market will close early. Gold trading is likely to be quiet, and with insufficient liquidity, it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.
📊However, as I said yesterday, core safe-haven demands such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors continue to provide some support for gold prices, and the upward structure has not been broken. The holiday effect is simply limiting significant volatility. Pullbacks are all for building momentum for a subsequent bullish rally.
📈The short-term daily MA5 is moving upward, and the 4-hour moving average and Bollinger middle line are also around 4135, which together with 4125 below form short-term support. On the first pullback to the 4135-4125 area, you can consider a small long position. The key support level to watch remains unchanged at around 4115-4100, near the daily MA10. As long as this level holds, the market's bullish trend will remain intact.
🌈Regarding resistance, continue to focus on the 4170-4180 range, a breakout would lead to an attack on the 4195-4205 range.
✅In summary, our strategy remains unchanged: in the absence of data or news-related factors today, we will primarily focus on buying on dips and waiting for the market to provide opportunities to buy at lower prices.
Gold Continues Bullish Trend – Waiting for Pullback to BUY📊 Market Overview
Gold maintains a strong upward trend as:
• USD weakens and expectations rise that the Fed may adopt a softer tone in upcoming statements.
• Safe-haven demand increases amid financial market volatility.
• Large institutional buying continues to keep the price above the 4180 level.
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📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: 4194 – 4200
• Stronger Resistance: 4212 – 4218
• Nearest Support: 4178 – 4182
• Stronger Support: 4162 – 4168
• EMA 09: Price is above EMA09 → dominant uptrend.
• Momentum & Candles: Buying pressure remains strong; quick price rallies after small pullbacks indicate buyers control the market.
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📌 Outlook
Gold is likely to continue rising in the short term if the price holds above 4178–4182.
• Pullback to 4178–4182 → good BUY opportunity.
• Break above 4200 → target extends to 4212–4218.
• SELL should only be considered at strong resistance 4194–4200 and 4212–4218 with clear reversal signals.
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💡 Suggested Trading Strategy
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4178 – 4182
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4175
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4215 – 4218
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4221
Market outlook and investment strategy: I am bullish.#XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
Judging from the structural trend and the performance of gold in different timeframes, gold has formed a short-term double bottom structure based on the trend line, and the prototype of the W pattern is gradually emerging.
Although the price retreated slightly after touching the channel resistance level around 4160 in the evening, it did not break the current upward structure, and the market is still dominated by bulls. Meanwhile, influenced by multiple positive factors such as geopolitical uncertainties and rising market speculation about a December rate cut, gold still has the potential for further gains.
Therefore, based on the current trend structure and fundamental logic, in the future trading process, we can first pay attention to the short-term resistance of 4170-4180, which is a key resistance under the triangle consolidation pattern. When it first touches this level, we can try to short gold with a small position and set the stop loss above 4185 to prevent the risk of a strong bullish breakout.
Meanwhile, if this strategy is effective, we need to pay attention to the subsequent rebound after the gold price falls back and stabilizes, which will help confirm the completion of the W pattern. At that time, we will focus on the breakout of the neckline at 4200-4205. If it can stabilize above this level, the upside potential will be further opened up, and it may extend to 4240-4245, or even higher!
In summary, our trading strategy must closely follow the confirmation signals of the trend structure. Therefore, it is essential to strictly control position size and stop-loss. We will continue to monitor market dynamics and optimize our trading strategy accordingly.






















