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Goldprediction

Double top expected, short at the beginning of the weekLast week, after a brief sideways consolidation following the opening, gold surged steadily and hit a new all-time high around 3,791. However, after a pullback correction on Wednesday, its upward momentum weakened relatively. During Friday’s U.S. trading session, gold rallied to around 3,783 before pulling back, closing near the 3,759 level. Technically, the daily chart shows a single bearish candlestick for the pullback, while Friday formed a small bullish candlestick with an upper wick—once again standing above the moving average system. This suggests gold is relatively in the early stage of preparing for a second rally. The weekly chart also closed as a medium bullish candlestick, indicating the overall broad market sentiment remains bullish. Driven by a series of bullish patterns, gold may see a trend reversal (breakout) move next week. After all, the pullback from Friday’s U.S. session high could very well be a short-term "washout" by bears. For gold to refresh its highs next week, Friday’s secondary high must be broken in a timely manner. Meanwhile, during pullbacks, the 3,770 level—now a top-bottom conversion zone—will act as a key short-term resistance. If gold opens under pressure below this level on Monday, it may break lower again later. On the 1-hour chart, if gold fails to extend its upward move, a "double top" pattern could form. A series of major economic data releases are scheduled for next week. Gold will likely trade in a consolidation range early next week, given the lack of significant news triggers initially. Focus on the resistance at 3,790 first—we expect a pullback initially, with support to watch around the 3,720 zone. If Monday’s rebound lacks strength, prioritize short positions on rallies. As market conditions change rapidly, please follow my channel for specific trading key points, including execution details for both long-term and short-term trades. If you are willing, feel free to share your current position status—we can analyze together whether it is safer to hold patiently or adjust and rebalance your positions in a timely manner.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Matthew_8888
Short Term Market Outlook XAU/USDWhat goes up must come down! 🎯15m chart analysis 🎯 As most experienced gold traders are already aware of its aggressive ranging behaviour many new retail gold traders fail to understand this causing them to get chewed up and spit out in this power house of a pair. Having an edge against this aggressive range is the key to being able to trade gold successfully long term. I have highlighted some important areas for you guys to keep an eye out for pull backs, look for rejections and candle closures above and below these zones. Overall market sentiment remains bullish so take sells with extra caution and lighten your positions up. I will keep you guys updated with further levels throughout the week, subscribe and turn notifications on 👁️👁️ Good luck to everybody, let’s make some money this week 💥
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by Fullportfrankie
2
Gold opening operation strategy News： The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred core inflation indicator, rose 0.2% month-over-month in August, in line with market expectations and down from the 0.3% initially reported in July (a figure that was revised downward to 0.2%). Year-over-year, the core PCE price index remained stable at 2.9%, indicating that inflation, while declining, remains above the Fed's 2% target. The overall PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.2% increase in July. The year-over-year increase also edged up slightly from 2.6% in July to 2.7% in August. Specifically: Friday's US market hit near 3784 before retreating, which is also our expected target. The market closed at 3760, with the 4-hour chart showing a bearish pullback pattern. The daily chart formed a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow on Friday, once again crossing above the moving average, indicating a potential for a secondary rally. The weekly chart also closed with a medium-sized bullish candlestick, indicating an overall bullish trend. From the 4-hour analysis, short-term support below is around 3735-3740, with important support remaining around 3720. Short-term pressure above is around 3770-3780. Trading strategies should focus on buying on pullbacks. In the intermediate range, be cautious in chasing orders and patiently wait for key entry points. I will provide detailed trading strategies in the channel, so please pay attention. Strategy： Long Position3740-3735，SL:3720，Target:3770-3790
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheodoreSilas
1
Trend changes? Outlook for next week.Gold rose strongly on Friday, hitting a high of around 3783. It began to fall before the closing of the US market and did not break through the new high. So, will gold hit a historical high or start to correct? Gold has broken through the recent consolidation range on the 4-hour chart, and the upward trend extends to the historical high of $3,791. If the gold price continues to fall below $3,750, short-term trend will be more bears, and may return to the previous consolidation range. The downward target will focus on 3720-3700. On the upside, if the gold price clearly breaks through the suppression position of 3780-3790, it will release new bullish momentum and pave the way for gold prices to move towards a new price range. The gold 1-hour trend temporarily remains in a narrow range oscillation, but after continuous oscillation, there are signs of upward movement in the short-term moving average. If the 1-hour moving average cannot continue to run upward, then gold may be in a state of reaching its peak. Some major data will appear next week, and there is a high probability that the golden week will still remain fluctuating at the beginning of the golden week. If there is no stimulating news, please pay attention to the first support of 3750, followed by the support of 3720 area. In terms of short-term operation ideas in Asia on Monday, Quaid recommended that rebounds should be the main focus, and pullbacks should be the supplement. The short-term focus on the suppression position of 3780-3790, and the lower focus on the first-line support of 3740-3730. The happy weekend is approaching, I wish you all a happy transaction next week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3780 and a gap below at 3753. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3780 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3780 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3802 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3802 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3825 BEARISH TARGETS 3753 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3753 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3734 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3734 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3705 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3705 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3683 3654 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3654 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3622 3592 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see update on our 4H chart idea from last week, which is playing out as analysed and still valid to continue to track for the coming week. After completing our Bullish targets last week with ema5 cross and lock confirmation, we are now seeing price play between 3738 and 3778. . We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either of these two weighted level to determine the next range. We will also now use lower Goldturns for support and Bounce until we see further cross and lock above for a continuation. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3696 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3738 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3738 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3778 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3778 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3811 - EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3811 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3845 BEARISH TARGETS 3655 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3583 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3546 3509 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3458 3409 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
5
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEDaily Chart Update – Follow Up 3776 Target Achieved!! Previously, we highlighted the importance of a candle body close above 3683, which opened the gap toward 3776. That target has now been hit with precision last week. With 3776 now achieved, the key focus shifts to the daily close: A sustained candle body close above 3776 will confirm the breakout and open the path toward 3866, especially if we see the EMA5 cross and lock in alignment. For now, any rejection at this level would ideally see the channel top act as support, allowing room for a healthy correction while maintaining the broader bullish structure. However, if price rejects and slips back into the channel, then range-bound play resumes within the channel zone. Current Outlook 🔹 3683 Target Reached Our breakout sequence played out with precision, starting from the EMA5 lock above 3564 and extending to complete the 3683 objective. 🔹 3776 Target Completed Last weeks price action delivered the full upside completion into 3776. Now, new daily close will decide whether the breakout extends further into new ranges. 🔹 Key Inflection – 3776 Close above = breakout expansion toward 3866. Rejection = retest of 3683 and channel top as support, or deeper channel play if momentum fades. Updated Key Levels 📉 Support – 3683 & Channel Top 📉 Deeper Support – 3564 & 3433 📉 Pivotal Floor – 3272 📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3866 (on confirmed close and EMA5 lock above 3776) As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
8
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update – Follow Up 3732 Hit & Closed Above, 3806 Gap Opens Previously we saw 3659 tested again with a weekly candle body close above the level, officially opening and completing 3732 last week. Now, we’re closing above 3732, which leaves a long-range gap open at 3806 for the week ahead. This sets the stage for continued bullish progression but with correction risks still in play. We must also keep in mind the possibility of a detachment correction back to 3659. Should momentum pick up during any such pullback, the channel top could align with the 3576 Goldturn to provide an additional zone of support and a potential springboard for continuation higher. Current Outlook 🔹 3659 Retest & Close Above Weekly close above 3659 confirmed strength and cleared the path higher. 🔹 3732 Objective Achieved Target reached precisely after last week’s breakout, validating the continuation sequence. 🔹 3806 Range Gap Active With a close above 3732, focus now shifts toward 3806 as the next upside range expansion. 🔹 Correctional Supports – 3659 & 3576 Detachment below highlights correctional risk. Both 3659 and 3576 (Goldturn) provide critical support zones, with the channel top acting as a confluence level for potential bounce. Updated Levels to Watch 📉 Supports – 3659 & 3576 (correctional zones), deeper floor at 3482 📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3806 Plan The bullish structure remains intact with upside potential toward 3806. A healthy correction into support zones (3659 / 3576) would help reset momentum while preserving the overall trend. As always, staying flexible with structure and levels will be key heading into the week ahead. Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
2
Gold XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 28 Sept to 2 Oct 2025Gold is currently trading at a decisive level where the weekly structure is hinting at a potential shift. After a strong bullish run, price tested the 3785–3800 zone but failed to sustain, forming a double top/M pattern and rejecting strongly from this supply area. The rejection has now pushed gold back into the crucial support zone of 3725–3733, which is a make-or-break level for the next swing move. If this support holds firm and we get a strong H4 close above it, buyers could regain momentum, opening the door for a bullish continuation towards 3780–3800, where the previous rejection zone lies. This would keep the broader bullish structure intact. On the flip side, if the market fails to hold this level and breaks below 3725 decisively, we can expect further downside towards the next demand zone at 3650–3660, which served as an earlier accumulation area. Overall, swing traders should treat 3725/33 as the key inflection point: above it, gold looks poised to retest the highs, while a breakdown could trigger a deeper correction into lower support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by QuinnReed_Charts
Gold’s Hidden Trigger: Why the Death Cross Matters CAPITALCOM:GOLD Hidden Trigger: Why Death Crosses Still Matter in a Secular Bull Historically, when U.S. interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR cross below the unemployment rate ECONOMICS:USUR - a kind of macro “death cross” - gold has often suffered sharp corrections even within a secular bull. We saw this in 1974–76, 1980–82, and 2008, where liquidity stress forced gold lower before the long‑term uptrend resumed. It’s a reminder that even in a secular bull, secondary corrections can be brutal when macro conditions tighten. The difference today is the sovereign bid. Since 2022, central banks have been buying over 1,000 tonnes annually, creating a structural floor that didn’t exist in past cycles. Any weakness is likely to be bought aggressively, producing a V‑shaped recovery rather than a drawn‑out bear market. Meanwhile, the 10‑Year Real Interest Rate is hovering around 1.5–1.7%, still artificially high. History shows that when real yields inevitably turn negative (likely by 2026), gold tends to explode higher regardless of crisis timing. Layer this onto the 16‑year secular cycle thesis and the central bank accumulation story, and the setup is compelling: gold may still face sharp but temporary corrections, yet the long‑term trajectory remains firmly higher. The key question is whether sovereign demand can fully absorb potential Western ETF liquidation during the next bout of financial stress. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by niclaxfx
14
Gold's Crisis Pattern: The Liquidation Before the Flight TVC:GOLD Crisis Pattern: The Liquidation Before the Flight Why Gold May Fall 25% Before Its Greatest Bull Run Yet While everyone expects gold to rally during the next crisis, history suggests something different: gold gets sold first, bought later. At $3,790, FX:XAUUSD may be setting up for its most painful - and ultimately profitable - cycle yet. Think of TVC:GOLD like a life preserver on a sinking ship. When panic first strikes, people throw everything overboard to stay afloat - even their life preservers. Only when they're drowning do they realize what they really need. The Crisis Liquidation Pattern 2000 Dot-Com Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $326 Initial drop: -21% Crisis bottom: $255 Ultimate recovery: +650% over 11 years 2008 Financial Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $1,033 Initial drop: -34% Crisis bottom: $680 Ultimate recovery: +180% over 3 years 2020 COVID Pandemic: Pre-pandemic peak: $1,696 Initial drop: -15% Bottom-to-recovery: +43% over 2 years, +160% over 5 years Key Distinction: Some will point to 2020, when TVC:GOLD rallied during the COVID crash. But that was a unique exogenous shock - the selloff lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus and collapsing real yields drove gold to new highs. In contrast, financial-system crises like 2000 and 2008 forced TVC:GOLD into year-long corrections before its hedge role reasserted. The 2025 setup looks far closer to those financial crises than to 2020's pandemic shock. 2025 Projection: Current peak: $3,790 (I think top already - might be wrong ) ✓ Expected initial drop: -20 to -25% Target bottom: $2,800-3,000 Long-term recovery target: $6,500+ by 2030 Why VELOCITY:GOLD Falls During Liquidity Crises? The Margin Call Cascade When leveraged positions blow up, investors sell what they can, not what they want to. TVC:GOLD , being liquid and unencumbered, becomes emergency cash. The Three-Phase Liquidation: Phase 1: "This is just a correction" - Hold everything Phase 2: "I need cash now" - Sell winners (including gold) Phase 3: "The system is broken" - Buy gold as currency hedge Think of it like a house fire: you don't grab the fire extinguisher first, you grab your wallet. Only after you're safe do you wish you'd saved the fire extinguisher. What Makes 2025 Different? Unprecedented Starting Point CAPITALCOM:GOLD at all-time highs vs. GDP ✓ Central bank buying at record levels Retail ownership through ETFs at maximum More holders means more potential sellers The AI Deflation/Monetary Inflation Paradox AI driving productivity gains (deflationary) Debt levels requiring monetary expansion (inflationary) Gold benefits from the monetary side, but falls in initial deflationary shock Geopolitical MCX:GOLD1! Demand vs. Financial Selling Central banks want VELOCITY:GOLD for de-dollarization But financial stress forces private selling first Result: Temporary oversupply before structural shortage The Crisis Timeline for Gold Stage 1: The Setup (Now - Q4 2025) CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025 Price Action: Sideways to slight decline Strong dollar pressure Real yields rising with Fed cuts Still viewed as "risk asset" by algorithms Target Range: $3,400-3,600 Stage 2: The Liquidation (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) TVC:GOLD Action: Sharp 20-25% decline Forced selling from leveraged funds ETF redemptions as retail panics Dollar TVC:DXY strength peaks Target Bottom: $2,800-3,000 Stage 3: The Recognition (Q2 2026 - Beyond) TVC:GOLD Action: New bull market begins Currency debasement fears return Physical shortage becomes apparent Central bank buying accelerates Ultimate Target: $6,500+ by 2030 Key Indicators to Watch Immediate Danger Signals: TVC:GOLDSILVER ratio above 90(April 2025 100+) (currently 84 - expect further decline) ✓ Dollar Index TVC:DXY climbs higher towards 110 TVC:US10Y 10-year real yields above 4% (currently 4.17%)✓ Crisis Confirmation: TVC:GOLD falls below $3,200 on volume Mining stocks crash 40%+ Central bank buying announcements increase Physical premiums start expanding Recovery Signals: Dollar TVC:DXY weakening below 105 Fed pivots to QE Inflation expectations rising TVC:GOLDSILVER Gold/Silver ratio normalizing The Bigger Picture: Why This Sets Up Gold's Greatest Run Structural Drivers Post-Crisis: Debt Monetization: $30+ trillion deficits requiring QE Currency Competition: Digital currencies vs. physical gold Supply Constraints: Peak gold production reached Generational Shift: Millennials discovering gold after getting burned in "everything bubble" Historical Precedent: After every major financial crisis, gold enters its strongest bull market: Post-1971: +2,300% over 9 years Post-1999: +650% over 11 years Post-2008: +180% over 3 years Post-2025: Targeting +150-200% over 5-7 years Risk Management This Analysis Fails If: Fed pivots to massive QE immediately (before crisis) Fiscal stimulus exceeds $3 trillion rapidly Dollar collapses before financial crisis hits War/geopolitical crisis becomes primary driver Probability Assessment: 65%: VELOCITY:GOLD falls to $2,800-3,200 range before rallying 25%: TVC:GOLD holds above $3,400 and rallies immediately 10%: CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025 crashes below $2,500 in systemic crisis Conclusion: The Pain Before the Gain TVC:GOLD 's crisis pattern is counterintuitive but consistent: liquidation before allocation. The coming correction may be the last chance to accumulate gold before its transition from investment to monetary asset. Like Warren Buffett said: "Be greedy when others are fearful." When gold is getting panic-sold alongside everything else, that's when the foundation for the next great bull market gets built. The fire sale is coming. Are you prepared to buy? Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
TVC:GOLDShort
by niclaxfx
22
The Great Convergence: End of the Everything BubbleThe Great Convergence: Why Q4 2025 May Mark the End of the Everything Bubble A Multi-Asset Analysis of Bitcoin, S&P 500, and Gold at Critical Junctures Hello Traders, After analyzing 25 years of market data across three major financial crises, I've identified a dangerous convergence of signals suggesting we're approaching a significant market inflection point. The simultaneous peaks in IG:BITCOIN (~$124K), SP:SPX (6,700), and TVC:GOLD ($3,790) combined with deteriorating macroeconomic indicators mirror patterns that preceded both the 2000 and 2008 crises. Key Thesis: We are potentially entering a liquidity crisis that could result in a 30-50% correction across risk assets by Q4 2026. Part I: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle - End of the Fourth Epoch Historical Pattern Recognition CRYPTO:BTCUSD price action has followed a remarkably consistent 4-year cycle tied to its halving events: 2012 Halving → 2013 Peak (1 year delay): +8,000% rise, -85% crash 2016 Halving → 2017 Peak (1.5 years delay): +2,800% rise, -84% crash 2020 Halving → 2021 Peak (1.5 years delay): +700% rise, -77% crash 2024 Halving → 2025 Peak (1.5 years delay): +450% rise, -75% crash projected Current Technical Indicators RSI Divergence: Weekly RSI showing lower highs while price makes higher highs - classic exhaustion signal present at 2013, 2021 previous cycle tops. Volume Profile: Declining volume on recent rallies indicates weakening conviction On-chain Metrics: Long-term holder distribution accelerating, similar to previous cycle tops Price Targets Current Level: $109,498 Proposed Peak: $124,000 (By halving cycle theory this was fulfilled last month August) Initial Support: $69,000 (previous cycle ATH) Crisis Target: $25,000-30,000 (75% drawdown from peak by Q6 2026) Part II: The Macro Crisis Trigger - SPX SP:SPX / Unemployment Rate ECONOMICS:USUR / Fed Rate Correlation ECONOMICS:USINTR The Historical Precedent Every major crisis follows a predictable sequence: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: CBOE:SPX at ATH (1,550) ✓ Unemployment begins rising from 3.9% ✓ Fed initiates rate cuts ✓ → 49% crash over 2.5 years 2008 Financial Crisis: TVC:SPX at ATH (1,576) ✓ Unemployment rises from 4.4% ✓ Fed cuts rates aggressively ✓ → 57% crash over 1.5 years 2025 AI/Everything Bubble: TVC:SPX at ATH (6,700) ✓ Unemployment rising from 3.4% ✓ Fed just initiated cuts (Sept 2025) ✓ → Projected 35-45% correction over 1.5 years The Unemployment-Rate Cut Death Cross Since 1970, whenever the Fed has cut rates while unemployment is rising from cycle lows: 12/12 times resulted in recession within 12 months Average equity drawdown: 35% Average duration: 18 months Current Labor Market Dynamics - The AI Disruption Factor Unlike previous cycles, we face structural unemployment pressure from AI adoption: Customer service: 2M jobs at risk Software development: 500K jobs transitioning Logistics/Transport: 3M jobs being automated Administrative: 4M jobs under pressure This isn't temporary cyclical unemployment - it's structural displacement requiring economic reorganization. Part III: Gold's Crisis Pattern - The Liquidation Before the Flight Historical TVC:GOLD Behavior in Crisis Contrary to popular belief, FX:XAUUSD can and does suffer fast flushes during systemic liquidity panics despite its long-term hedge role; with gold near ATH, combined liquidity and profit-taking risk could produce a 15–25% correction ahead of any later safe-haven rally: 2000 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $326 Initial drop: -21% Bottom-to-recovery: +650% over 11 years 2008 Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $1,033 Initial drop: -34% Bottom-to-recovery: +180% over 3 years Covid-19 Pandemic: Pre-pandemic peak: $1,696 Initial drop: -15% Bottom-to-recovery: +43% over 2 years and 160% over 5 years Some will point to 2020, when gold rallied during the COVID crash. But that was a unique exogenous shock: the selloff lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus and collapsing real yields drove gold to new highs. In contrast, financial‑system crises like 2000 and 2008 forced gold into a year‑long correction before its hedge role reasserted. The 2025 setup looks far closer to those financial crises than to 2020’s pandemic shock. 2025 Projection: Current peak: $3,790 Expected initial drop: -20 to -25% Target bottom: $3,000-$2,800 Long-term recovery target: $6,500+ by 2030 Why Gold Falls Initially During liquidity crises, investors sell everything to meet margin calls and raise cash - even safe havens. Only after the acute phase does gold fulfill its hedge role. Part IV: The Convergence - Why This Time Is Particularly Dangerous Unique Risk Factors in 2025 1. Unprecedented Valuations Across All Assets Total global asset values: $450 trillion (4.5x global GDP) Buffett Indicator: 195% (highest ever) Shiller CAPE: 38 (higher than 1929) 2. Leverage and Derivatives Total derivatives notional: $700 trillion Margin debt: $935 billion (record high) Corporate debt/GDP: 85% (record high) 3. Geopolitical Tensions Active conflicts affecting supply chains De-dollarization accelerating Energy market fragmentation 4. Cryptocurrency Systemic Risk $2.5 trillion COINBASE:BTCUSD and over $4T gross crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL asset class that didn't exist in 2008 Interconnected with traditional finance via ETFs Untested in true liquidity crisis Part V: The Three-Stage Crisis Model Stage 1: The Warning Shot (Now - Q4 2025) Timeline: Next 1-3 months Characteristics: Deteriorating breadth (fewer stocks making highs) Defensive rotation begins TVC:VIX creeping higher First 10% correction dismissed as "healthy" Stage 2: The Liquidity Cascade (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) Timeline: 6-9 months Characteristics: Multiple failed rallies "Buy the dip" mentality breaks Margin calls cascade All correlations go to 1 Targets: TVC:SPX : 5,000-5,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $50,000-70,000 TVC:GOLD : $2,200-2,400 Stage 3: Capitulation and Reset (Q2 2026 - Q4 2026) Timeline: 6-12 months Characteristics: Forced selling exhaustion Government intervention Market clearing prices reached Final Targets: TVC:SPX : 3,700-4,500 CRYPTO:BTCUSD : $25,000-35,000 TVC:GOLD : Begins new bull market from $2,800 My Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Current Risk Asset Exposure: Reduce to 30% of portfolio Cash: 50% Precious Metals (Physical): 10% Strategic Shorts: 10% (via puts and/or inverse ETFs) Key Indicators to Monitor Weekly Unemployment Claims: ECONOMICS:USUR Sustained moves above 250K Credit Spreads: HYG/TLT ratio breaking below 4.5 Dollar Strength: TVC:DXY above 110 signals global stress IG:BITCOIN Dominance: Below 45% indicates alt-coin capitulation TVC:VIX Term Structure: Inversion signals immediate stress Invalidation Scenarios This bearish thesis would be invalidated if: Unemployment reverses below 4% Fed pivots to QE without crisis Fiscal stimulus exceeds $2 trillion AI productivity gains offset job losses faster than expected Conclusion: Probability-Weighted Scenarios Based on historical precedent and current conditions, I assign the following probabilities: 60% Probability: Significant correction (20-30% drawdown) beginning Q4 2025 25% Probability: Major crisis (40-50% drawdown) rivaling 2008 15% Probability: Continued melt-up through 2026 (Fed intervention success) The risk/reward severely favors defensive positioning. After a 15-year bull market across all assets, the convergence of deteriorating fundamentals, extreme valuations, and historical crisis patterns suggests we're approaching a critical inflection point. Remember: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. This analysis presents probabilities , not certainties. Always manage risk appropriately and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Follow for updates as this thesis develops. Key milestones to watch: October NFP report November FOMC meeting Q4 earnings season Year-end positioning
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by niclaxfx
12
Gold Trade Setup - 27/Sep/2025Hi Traders, I am biased for further upside in Gold. The first trade that I will be looking for is from the highlighted zone and the price is already testing it. If price corrects here , then I will expect it to drop further to the next marked POI. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer : This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by For3xScalper
Reaching the High Point. Price Retracement?After a period of consolidation this week, gold surged upwards, reaching a new all-time high near $3791. However, following the retracement on Wednesday, the upward momentum weakened. On Friday, during the US session, gold briefly touched $3783 before retracing, closing near $3759. It remains above the moving average, suggesting a potential second wave of upward movement. Overall, the market sentiment remains bullish, and a series of bullish patterns suggest that gold may continue its upward trend next week. The Friday pullback could be seen as a consolidation by the bulls. The resistance level around $3770, where the previous high and low were formed, will be an important short-term resistance level. If the Asian market opens at 3770 under downward pressure on Monday, it is very likely to break down again in the later period, and the low point of 3717 generated last week may also be broken. The current unilateral trend is not clear. Try to short near 3770 when the Asian market opens next Monday. Focus on the profit range near 3730 and set a stop loss at 3780. If there is no sign of decline in the European session, adjust the strategy in time in the US session.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Market_Trader1
Gold Roadmap: Breakout Confirmed –New ATH or Another Correction?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) as I expected in the previous idea (Short and Long positions hit the target). First of all, I should say that this analysis is for the short term and on a 15-minute time frame. Gold seems to have managed to break the Resistance lines, Resistance zone($3,763-$3,750), and the upper line of the symmetrical triangle in the past few minutes. I expect Gold to rise to at least $3,779, and then there are two scenarios for Gold: creating a new All-Time High, OR re-correcting. Stop Loss(SL): $3,741.7 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 15-minute time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
13
Back to 4H Frame – Fed & Inflation Shape Gold PathGold on the 4H timeframe is consolidating near premium supply after multiple liquidity sweeps. Recent U.S. inflation data kept the dollar resilient, while traders anticipate upcoming Fed commentary for clearer policy direction. Price rejected from the 3,795 supply pocket and is now retracing toward discount demand zones. Market structure suggests engineered sweeps below support before bullish continuation into Q4. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (4H): • 🔼 Buy Zone 3,692 – 3,694 (SL 3,685): Discount demand aligned with liquidity grab, ideal for continuation longs. • 🔽 Sell Zone 3,795 – 3,797 (SL 3,804): Premium supply pocket where liquidity sweeps may trigger short-term rejections. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand Reaction • Entry: 3,692 – 3,694 • Stop Loss: 3,685 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,715  TP2: 3,740  TP3: 3,760+ 👉 Smart money may engineer a sweep below 3,694 before reversing higher. Watch for bullish rejection patterns at demand. 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Supply Reaction • Entry: 3,795 – 3,797 • Stop Loss: 3,804 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,780  TP2: 3,765  TP3: 3,750 👉 Short-term liquidity scalp opportunity against trend. Valid if price fails to break above breakout point. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Bias remains bullish medium-term, but intraday sweeps into demand zones are expected as Fed officials continue to push cautious monetary guidance. Liquidity hunts around 3,795 supply and 3,694 demand will likely define the week’s volatility before a decisive breakout.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss ??Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330 Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330 Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330 Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330 Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330 Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330Silver buy above 137520 tgt 139621 intrday stop loss 137330
MCX:SILVER1!Long
by InvestingMindset