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Gold 1H – Retail Sales Impact Before FedGold on the 1H timeframe is trading near 3,682 after a strong BOS. Liquidity is now stacked above the premium resistance at 3,700 and below the fresh FVG demand at 3,669–3667. With U.S. Retail Sales scheduled today at 19:30 VN time, volatility may spike intraday, but broader positioning remains cautious ahead of the Fed’s rate decision this week. Expect engineered sweeps into premium before retracements back into demand. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,700 – 3,698 (SL 3,707): Premium resistance for engineered sweep/rejection targeting 3,690 → 3,680 → 3,670. • 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,669 – 3,667 (SL 3,660): Fair Value Gap demand aligned with retracement into structure, targeting 3,680 → 3,690 → 3,700+. • 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,641 – 3,639 (SL 3,632): Deep discount support zone targeting 3,655 → 3,670 → 3,685+. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Reclaim (3,669–3,667) • Entry: 3,669 – 3,667 • Stop Loss: 3,660 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,680  TP2: 3,690  TP3: 3,700+ 👉 Look for a liquidity sweep into the FVG zone before New York open. 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Sweep (3,641–3,639) • Entry: 3,641 – 3,639 • Stop Loss: 3,632 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,655  TP2: 3,670  TP3: 3,685+ 👉 Strong R:R if price hunts stops below structure before Retail Sales data. 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Liquidity Run (3,700–3,698) • Entry: 3,700 – 3,698 • Stop Loss: 3,707 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,690  TP2: 3,680  TP3: 3,670 👉 Expect engineered stop-runs into premium supply before fading lower. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Retail Sales may provide short-term volatility, but Fed expectations will dominate the week. Smart money is likely to run both sides of liquidity: fading premium near 3,700–3,698 while protecting buys at 3,669–3,667 and 3,641–3,639. Trade with reduced size and confirm structure on H1 closes.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
3
XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Continuation from Demand Zone .Key Observations: Uptrend Structure: Price has been consistently making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), confirming an overall bullish market structure. Break of Structure (BOS) levels confirm continuation of the trend. Market Structure Shift (MSS): Recently, price created a short-term shift downward (MSS) but retraced into a POI zone (demand area) near 3,646 – 3,659. Current Setup: The price bounced from the POI zone and is now recovering upward. A long position was marked with entry near 3,659, Stop Loss at 3,646, and Target around 3,709. Bias: As long as price holds above 3,646 (POI zone), bullish continuation is favored. If broken below 3,646, bearish correction could extend further.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
1
Has gold reached its peak?The Federal Reserve's meeting met expectations with a 25 basis point interest rate cut, which did not significantly stimulate the market. Meanwhile, the market expects two more rate cuts in November and December this year. Gold briefly surged lower before retreating sharply. Is this a top or a normal correction in the bull market? The key to judging whether a market trend has ended is to look at the strength of the pullback. From a technical perspective, the price of gold has fallen below the 5-day moving average and is currently between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average. The focus below is on the support formed by the 10-day moving average. The support level is currently in the 3645-3640 range, and this range is also yesterday's low point. Gold's ability to hold above the 10-day moving average remains to be seen. If it holds, it is expected to continue its upward trend. Focus on the 3680 first-line pressure level. If it breaks through this pressure, gold is expected to hit above 3700 again. A break below 3645 could lead to further declines to the 3620-3600 range.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Gold Analysis: Strong Upside Potential from Key Support ZoneHey everyone, Ken here! I'm keeping a close eye on XAUUSD, and right now, gold is approaching a very important support zone that I’ve shared before. This level is not only reinforced by strong buying pressure but also aligns with the trendline, making the potential for a bounce here very high. If price confirms support here through strong price action, such as long lower wicks or a bullish engulfing candle, I believe gold will reverse and target 3,724, a reasonable goal given the current market structure. However, if price breaks and holds below this support zone, the bullish trend will be invalidated, and we could see a sharp decline. This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Always assess your setups and ensure proper risk management when trading! Good luck with your trades!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kenn_Nguyen
4
Bull Fever Cools：The Market Still Owes Us a WaterfallAs I expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and Powell did not show a clear dovish tone in his speech. Gold fell from 3707 to around 3646, with a drop of $610. Our short positions at 3685 and 3700 that we had ambushed overnight won as expected, and we successfully locked in a profit of 750 pips in the news market. Although the Federal Reserve is inclined to take a hawkish approach to rate cuts, gold has rebounded from around 3646. Although it has performed relatively weakly, the downward momentum has slowed down and a unilateral downward trend has not formed. Overall, it is still in the high-level fluctuation range. So we can't rush to short gold at the moment. Because gold still has the possibility of rebounding back to the 3675-3685 area, and may even be expected to rebound back to the 3690-3700 area. After all, gold did not effectively fall below 3650 during the decline. Although the decline in gold prices did not change the overall structure, it weakened the market's enthusiastic bullish sentiment in the short term, and the technical resistance also moved down to the 3675-3685 area, followed by the 3695-3705 resistance area. If gold rebounds to the resistance area, we can try to short gold, and the short-term retracement target is set in the 3655-3645 area. Once gold falls below this area, it is expected to continue the downward trend to the 3635-3625 area. Of course, it is not ruled out that gold will fluctuate widely in the 3690-3650 area. Therefore, we can still make very good profits from the perspective of profit margin by shorting gold at the resistance areas of 3675-3685 .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold Rejected at $3,700 – Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,662 and moving within an upward channel structure, but showing signs of weakness near the resistance zone. Price recently tested the $3,698–$3,700 resistance area and failed to break higher, creating a potential short-term top (marked as a weak high). This rejection signals that sellers are gaining strength. If price fails to sustain above $3,675–$3,698, it increases the probability of a deeper correction toward the lower channel and demand Overall, Gold remains vulnerable to correction unless bulls reclaim and sustain above $3,700, which would invalidate the bearish setup and reopen the path toward $3,725–$3,750. 🔑 Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: 3670 – 3690 - Support: 3625 – 3600 📌 Sell Zone & Sell Trigger: - Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 area - Sell Trigger: If Gold retests and rejects the $3,690–$3,700 resistance zone, it becomes a valid sell entry with confirmation of bearish rejection. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold 1H – Dollar Strength Weighs Ahead of US DataGold on the 1H chart is testing deeper demand zones near 3,612–3,614 after repeated liquidity sweeps into 3,678 and 3,702. Sellers continue to defend premium supply, with engineered stop-runs fading quickly. Today’s US data releases and renewed dollar strength keep gold vulnerable to further downside unless discount demand zones show strong defense. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,678 – 3,680 (SL 3,685) Premium intraday pocket for rejection targeting 3,675 → 3,670 → 3,665. • 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,704 – 3,702 (SL 3,711) Major premium supply trap for engineered sweep before continuation lower toward 3,670 → 3,655 → 3,640. • 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3,616 – 3,618 (SL 3,610) Fresh deep discount demand zone, targeting recovery into 3,630 → 3,645 → 3,655+ if defended. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Intraday Premium Rejection (3,678–3,680) • Entry: 3,678 – 3,680 • Stop Loss: 3,685 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,675  TP2: 3,670  TP3: 3,665 👉 Expect engineered liquidity grab into premium before NY session. 🔻 Sell Setup – Higher Premium Trap (3,704–3,702) • Entry: 3,704 – 3,702 • Stop Loss: 3,711 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,670  TP2: 3,655  TP3: 3,640 👉 Smart money may sweep highs near 3,704 before extending bearish leg. 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Reversal (3,612–3,614) • Entry: 3,616 – 3,618 • Stop Loss: 3,610 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,630  TP2: 3,645  TP3: 3,655+ 👉 Strong bounce potential if dollar retraces post-data; favorable risk/reward from deep demand. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note With US data and dollar strength in focus, gold remains heavy below 3,678–3,704. Favor short setups into premium sweeps, but monitor 3,612–3,614 closely for signs of accumulation. Trade smaller size until direction clarifies post-news.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryan_TitanTrader
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve seen this play well so far this week so we’ll sit back and let them make the move before then looking for a set up to get in. We have initial support at the 3670 level and resistance above at the 3690 level which is the level that will need to break for price to then attempt a new high. Potential level here 3720-30 which is where we will want to assess the price action and potentially an opportunity to attempt the short trade for the swing may arise. Breaking above that level will invalidate the move. Downside, there is a hot spot at 3665 which is the level that will need a strong close, this level also has an extension of the move into the 3650-55 level and on the break 3630-35. Quick summary: Ideally, we support the 3670 level, push upside, attack the 3720-30 region and we’ll look for a reversal up there. IF we break below 3655, we’ll look further down around the 3620-30 region for a reversal for the scalp long. There is a big stretch on and in normal market conditions, this should have dropped all the way back down into the 3500’s at least. But, we have to play the game they present us with so let’s wait and see what happens. Also, FOMC might already be priced in, so it’s the press conference after the statement that will be of interest to the markets. Key levels to watch for the break: Red box level 3690 Red box level 3673 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
17
Anticipation of GC / Gold over the next couple of weeks.For those who might have interest in a Elliott reading on gold: In this post, everytime I write gold, I mean GC. This is just for info, since GC and gold doesn't have same prices, but the movement is very much the same. If you follow along on a gold spot or similar, just translate the levels to there. The picture is very messy for those who doesn't know what the lines and numbers are for, but please follow along. I have a strong believe that with current PA the 3rd (white iii) wave is over, and now we will look for price to search for the bottom of the blue channel. The blue channel is an acceleration channel, which is used to see if 4th (white iv) wave is under way. When the 4th (white iv) has developed some more, we are able to put another channel on, called the deceleration channel. This we will use to spot the end of the 4th (white iv). Until now, it seems gold is respect the white 161 fib level, which is a very typical 3rd wave level to end. The reason I started this post, was to tell you about my thoughts on when the 4th (white iv) is going to end, or at least how long it's going to be. A typical scenario is that wave 4 is longer in duration than wave 2. For ease of spotting, I have put up these purple boxes, so now we do not anticipate gold to end the correction, before it has exited the purple box to the right. The depth of wave 4 (white iv): I believe we are going to see prices in the level between 3600 and 3550 (the green box). Reasons for the levels of the green box: when prices wave 2 (white ii) goes beyound the 61.8 fib level (in this case below), we tend to see a retracement between 38% and 50% in the 4th (white iv). And this is the area the green box indicates. Timewise it is places outside of the previously mentioned purple box. 4th wave also tends to respect the base channel . Either the upper line or the middle line. The lower line of the blue channel and the middle of the grey channel ( base channel ), the green box, outside of the purple box is all seeming to fall in the same place. So I like all the confluences falling together here, so that's why I feel pretty certain that, that is where the white iv wave is likely to end. Timewise it'll be about 1st of october. The white v wave i have also done a forecast on that fits if wave white iv retrace to the green box. Normally the 5th wave is going to end in the area between 38% and 61% of the wave 1 and 3. This level is indicated with the blue fib. Usually wave 5 is equal to wave 3. But can be extended if wave three isn't. Have indicated the 100% fib of white i wave with the cyan fib. This 100% level falls between the blue fib, right around the yellow line I have talked a lot about before in previous post. So I also have a lot of confluences for price to go here in the white v wave. If the white v is extended it could go to the blue 100% level, which also is confluenced with that cyan upgoing line. This is a pitchfork drawn from previous waves. let's see where gold will take us.
COMEX:GC1!
by TheDane
Gold 1H – Fed Decision Looms After $3,700 BreakGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating around 3,675 after sweeping the historic $3,700 level. Price briefly tapped 3,702 before retreating into the 3,670s, showing engineered liquidity runs both sides. With the Fed policy decision due at 1 AM VN time, volatility is expected to spike. Market remains supported by easing USD, central bank flows, and geopolitical tension, but short-term positioning suggests possible liquidity grabs before a directional move. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,696 – 3,694 (SL 3,703) Premium supply pocket for engineered rejection targeting 3,690 → 3,685 → 3,680. • 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,674 – 3,665 (SL 3,660) Fair Value Gap demand zone for retracement into structure, targeting 3,685 → 3,695 → 3,700+. • 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,636 – 3,638 (SL 3,630) Deep discount accumulation zone targeting 3,655 → 3,670 → 3,680+. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Reclaim (3,674–3,665) • Entry: 3,674 – 3,665 • Stop Loss: 3,660 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,685  TP2: 3,695  TP3: 3,700+ 👉 Look for liquidity sweep into FVG before NY session/Fed. 🔺 Buy Setup – Deep Discount (3,636–3,638) • Entry: 3,636 – 3,638 • Stop Loss: 3,630 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,655  TP2: 3,670  TP3: 3,680+ 👉 High R:R setup if stops hunted before Fed decision. 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Trap (3,696–3,694) • Entry: 3,696 – 3,694 • Stop Loss: 3,703 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,690  TP2: 3,685  TP3: 3,680 👉 Expect engineered stop-runs into premium before fading lower. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Gold’s break above $3,700 highlights strong bullish sentiment, but Fed decision risk means smart money may sweep liquidity both ways. Stay nimble: fade extremes at 3,696–3,694 for shorts, and defend demand at 3,674–3,665 and 3,636–3,638 for longs. Trade lighter size until post-Fed clarity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Potential bearish drop off?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 3,674.77 1st Support: 3,624.94 1st Resistance: 3,697.75 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by IC Markets
Go long before the data,be wary of a short-selling counterattackYesterday, gold retreated slightly in the Asian session, continuing the strong bull pattern. We originally expected to wait for gold to retreat to the support level of 3675-3665 to go long on gold, but the market always only gives us unattainable points. In the evening, gold rebounded directly to around 3703, which is in line with my previous judgment that gold will touch 3700 after stabilizing above 3665. As gold hit a new high and the Fed was about to cut interest rates, some buyers on the upper side chose to take profits, which gave us another opportunity to retreat to the ideal point. We also successfully seized the opportunity to go long on gold. This morning, gold rebounded again to around 3695, and the long positions we held also made a wave of profits. Judging from the current market conditions, yesterday's daily line closed with a positive sign, and 3703 became the short-term high point. The lower moving averages MA5 and MA10 in the daily chart are around 3665 and 3635 respectively, which is exactly the middle track position of the Bollinger band. Only when it effectively falls below this point, will gold usher in a trend reversal in the short term. 3665 is the key position for the top and bottom conversion, and the market's enthusiasm for a 50 basis point interest rate cut remains unabated. If gold falls back to 3665-3655 again in the European session without breaking, then gold will rebound. Therefore, before the data is released, I choose to go long on gold again and expect a rebound, with the short-term target at 3685-3705. Bros can gradually reduce their positions during the rebound or take profits and exit at appropriate points according to their own account conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Allen_Boswell
1
Fed Catalyst: The Bear AwakensGold rebounded after touching 3660 and is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 3685. Gold is currently trading relatively cautiously, apparently waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to indicate its short-term direction. How to formulate a trading plan for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision market? In fact, in the short term, I think there will not be much room for gold to continue to rise, and the short-term peak may be in the 3705-3715 area; in addition, regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, I think the Federal Reserve will adopt a step-by-step approach to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and as for Powell’s attitude, I think it may rely more on the feedback from US employment data and inflation data to decide whether to continue to cut interest rates within the year. The attitude may not be obviously dovish, so I think there is limited room for short-term increases. Since I think the short-term peak of gold is in the 3705-3715 area, and the short-term resistance area is around 3690. Therefore, I will definitely ambush and short gold before the news is announced. Of course, the transaction needs to be set up in combination with the risk resistance ability of my account. At present, I tend to divide the upper space into two areas, namely 3685-3695 and 3705-3715. I will mainly short gold in batches around these two areas. Once gold falls as expected, I think it will first test the intraday low around 3660. Once it falls below this area, I think gold is likely to continue to test the area around 3635-3625. As for whether gold can take advantage of this opportunity to test the area around 3600. I believe I will overcome my greed and will not take risks to gamble for gains beyond my cognition. I will need to make a secondary judgment based on market fluctuations at that time.In any case, I would favor a short gold setup, so let’s hope for a bearish recovery!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
With the meeting coming, will gold prices soar or plummet?Technical analysis of gold: Judging from the current trend, gold is approaching the 3700 mark. Bulls are surrounding it but not attacking, waiting for guidance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Overall, gold has risen by nearly $400 since it rose from 3311. For now, it is still in a bullish trend. Don't easily say it has reached the top before the trend reverses. From a technical point of view, the intraday support point is reflected in the daily cycle. On the unilateral moving average of the H4 cycle, the lower support is in the 3660-3650 area. You can just focus on these two points and go long. In principle, we don’t guess the top of the upper space, but the visible target is expected to be around 3710-3720. If it continues to rise, it may even reach 3730. After a phased rise during the U.S. trading session, we will see whether we can keep long positions and wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision based on actual conditions. The Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates this time, but the first rate cut will not be a large-scale release of money. It is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market performance is to sell expectations and buy facts. The current rise in gold from the end of August to September has achieved expectations. Therefore, after the actual confirmation of the rate cut, the market is expected to move in the opposite direction because the expectations have been fulfilled, and the historical performance is the same. To sum up the above: for the lower support, first pay attention to the area around 3660, and continue to look up to the 3680-3690 area. If the support is broken strongly, you can participate in long positions in the 3630-3620 area. At present, pay attention to the area around 3685-3695 in the short term and try to short. On the whole, the short-term strategy for gold today is still to arrange long positions on dips, supplemented by light positions in short positions when it rebounds to key resistance levels. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3700-3720 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3660-3650 line of support.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, After successfully sharing our 1H chart target updates earlier this week, here’s an update on our our 4H chart idea shared on Sunday. This setup has also played out perfectly: We started the week with 3655 being hit. That was followed by the EMA5 cross and lock, which opened the target for 3696, also hit perfectly to complete the target. Currently, we’re seeing range play between 3655 and 3696. The next move will depend on whether we get another EMA5 cross and lock above or below these two Goldturns, which will guide us toward the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3655 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3696 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3738 BEARISH TARGETS 3615 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3583 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3545 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3545 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3509 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3458 3409 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3409 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3360 3320 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
1
Gold is about to face a stormGold fell continuously but found support around the 3,660 level and began to rebound—just as mentioned yesterday, the 3,658-3,662 range is a top-bottom conversion zone. As long as this level remains unbroken, the bullish trend is not over. However, given the upcoming interest rate decision, we remain bullish but will no longer chase highs, as we need to be cautious of a sudden trend reversal. Remember: the unchanged long-term trend does not mean there will be no corrections amid the uptrend. When most people start celebrating, we must maintain awe for the market. Focus on resistance around 3,685-3,690 and support around 3,658-3,662. Below are my personal views on the interest rate decision: It can be said that a rate cut at this meeting is almost a foregone conclusion; the only uncertainty is whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points. A 25-basis-point rate cut with a hawkish tone (45% probability) Currently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut are extremely high. The mainstream expectation on Wall Street is three 25-basis-point cuts in September, October, and December, totaling 75 basis points. If the Fed’s statement and Powell’s press conference fail to hint at a further rate cut outlook or implicitly approve a consecutive cut in October, this could well be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut," and market expectations will tighten afterward. This will be the biggest risk of this meeting—there is potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move in the short term, pushing the U.S. dollar higher. Conversely, assets like U.S. stocks and gold may face selling pressure due to "bad news after good news," combined with profit-taking and technical overbought conditions. A 25-basis-point rate cut with neutral-to-dovish wording (45% probability) Compared with the Fed’s June projections, both the number and magnitude of rate cuts have increased, but Powell maintains ambiguous and neutral wording. This will fully align with current market expectations. In this scenario, the U.S. dollar will likely trade sideways in a lower range in the short term, while assets like U.S. stocks and gold will consolidate in higher ranges. The market will wait for new signals to seek a breakout. An unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut (10% probability) This scenario would be like a shot in the arm in the short term. Although most assets (except the weakening U.S. dollar) will benefit temporarily, it may trigger market concerns that the Fed has surrendered to political pressure and lost its independence, as well as deep worries about the U.S. economic situation. At the same time, a sharp U.S. rate cut will drastically narrow the interest rate differential with overseas markets, leading to a tendency for large amounts of U.S. dollar capital to flow out of the U.S. market—this will put short-term pressure on U.S. stocks. Therefore, this scenario may not be a real positive for U.S. stocks. In contrast, gold will benefit as safe-haven demand continues to be boosted.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Matthew_8888
Interest rate meeting is imminent, two principles! Today's morning session saw a volatile decline. Upon encountering support, the market rebounded briefly, but the strength was limited, maintaining an overall volatile downward trend. This trend seems somewhat odd—with the interest rate meeting imminent, the positive news should have continued, yet the market saw a volatile decline. There are two possibilities: First, the intraday volatile decline is creating room for upward movement due to the positive news from Thursday's early morning interest rate meeting. In this case, it's bullish! Second, the intraday volatile decline is a sign of the market positioning itself in advance, "buy anticipation, sell reality"; in this case, it's bearish. Overall, the Fed's late-night interest rate meeting is a 50-50 market trend for both bulls and bears! We can't make predictions or speculate on the sentiment of market institutions and investment banks; all we can do is conduct a thorough technical analysis, as shown in the chart. First: As shown in the chart, support levels are clearly visible, located near 3680, 3660, and around 3620, as well as the final support level of the trend channel. The dividing line between strength and weakness lies at the support boundary of the trend channel, serving as a subsequent stop-gap. Second: Technically, bulls are currently in control! As long as the price remains above the support level of the trend channel, it signals continued bullish momentum. In summary: short-term support of 3660-3655 is bullish, and the target is 3700-3720
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
1
GOLD Trade Update📢 NFX FX:XAUUSD Trade Update TVC:GOLD recently dropped to retest the key SR level at 3660 – the previous ascending triangle breakout level on H1 TF. Following the 25bps cut by ECONOMICS:CAINTR BoC , the retest was strongly rejected, resulting in a +200pts gain. 🔎 Current Outlook: Price is trending towards the recent ATH at 3700 Watching for a breakout above 3685 ahead of the Fed Rate Cut Market expectation: 25bps cut from the ECONOMICS:USINTR → could trigger an instant +200pts move ⚖️ Bias: Bullish – but stay sharp ahead of high-impact news. ✍️ Trade smart, stay disciplined, and protect your capital.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by niclaxfx
1