Goldrecord — Trading Ideas on TradingView

“I Am Become Meme, Destroyer of Short-Sellers”: Gold at $4,200 Remember those days where you could short gold and turn a profit? They’re gone. The precious metal is relentlessly pushing higher, breaking every short-seller’s dreams and portfolio. It’s official — gold has gone full meme. The shiny metal that your grandparents swore by is now trending on Reddit threads, popping in Discord chats, and somehow getting the same hype energy as Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA in 2023 and Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD in 2021. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD just crossed $4,200 per ounce early Wednesday, notching a 60% gain year-to-date — its best run in modern history and enough to make short-sellers lose sleep and tons of cash. Its market cap now sits near $30 trillion, which means there’s more money parked in gold than the nominal GDP of every country not named the United States. Let’s unpack what’s fueling this blistering rally and why traders just can’t stop buying. 🪙 Gold as the Trade of 2025? Not too long ago, gold was a boring asset that just sat there like a pet rock. Not anymore. The OG store of value is finding new meaning as the “asset for uncertain times.” That is, even amid an ongoing earnings season . What’s driving it? Pretty much everything that usually rattles markets. • Rate cut expectations: The Fed’s recent pivot toward easing has taken real yields lower — and gold loves that. Non-yielding assets look a lot more appealing when Treasuries don’t pay much. • Geopolitical jitters: The Trump-Xi trade tension reboot has everyone looking for a hedge that doesn’t involve a risk disclaimer the size of a novel. • ETF inflows: Gold-backed ETFs are hoovering up bullion at record pace as everyone seeks exposure to the precious metal. Add in central bank hoarding — especially from China, India, and Turkey — and you’ve got a near-perfect cocktail for demand. 💰 Meme Metal or Market Masterclass? Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets is now flooded with gold posts, some featuring rocket emojis other saying it’s one big bubble. Regardless, the retail crowd is buzzing with memes, showing that the age-old asset has reached its youngest audience. Individual traders are clearly in on the move, and the narrative is simple enough to spread like wildfire — gold is going up, it’s at record highs, and there’s a clean number to chase: $5,000 . Is it rational? Maybe not entirely. If 2021 taught markets anything, it’s that “meme energy” can be a legitimate technical indicator. But it will take more than undergrads buying on their iPads to move this $30 trillion behemoth. ⚖️ The Case for (Even) Higher Prices The $5,000 target — just 20% away — doesn’t sound crazy to gold bulls. Here’s why: • Fed momentum: With the labor market showing signs of cracking, two more rate cuts are priced in for this year. • Central bank accumulation: Global reserves are quietly diversifying away from the dollar. It’s a structural de-dollarization move and (likely) not a phase. • Broader liquidity wave: Investors are flush with cash, even amid the AI boom, and some of that money inevitably spills into gold. 😬 The Other Side of the Coin But before you run to your local pawn shop with diamond hands, it’s worth noting: no rally goes vertical forever. Gold’s RSI has hovered above 70 for weeks — deep in overbought territory. Historically, every time the metal’s gone this far this fast, there’s been a pullback of 10-15% to shake out the latecomers. Add in profit-taking, potential surprise Fed commentary, and a stronger dollar bounce, and you could see a retest of support near $3,850–$3,900. And don’t forget the opportunity cost. When rates eventually bottom, stocks and crypto could start reclaiming their allure. Gold doesn’t pay yield, doesn’t innovate, and doesn’t post memes — it just sits there, shiny and smug. 🥈 The Silver Lining If gold’s story sounds wild, silver’s chart looks even wilder. Silver OANDA:XAGUSD topped $53.60 earlier this week — up 83% year-to-date — riding on both industrial demand and good old FOMO. ETFs tracking silver have seen some of their largest inflows ever, with some day traders even rotating profits from gold to silver in hopes of juicing returns. When both metals rally together, it usually signals broad market uncertainty — and a collective “we don’t trust anything else right now” mood. Off to you : How are you navigating the gold rush? Are you in already, looking to get in, or calling tops and lower from here? Share your views in the comments!

AUDUSD breakdown:Hidden oppportunity while Gold grabs headlines?While everyone's watching gold hit fresh records after Trump's China tariff threats, there's an overlooked opportunity in AUDUSD that could be setting up for a major breakdown. The Australian dollar just broke key support at 0.6520 against the USD, creating a fundamental and technical alignment for further downside. With Australia sending 63% of its exports to China, any trade war escalation directly impacts the Aussie dollar. Key Drivers: Trade War Impact : Australia's heavy dependence on China makes AUD vulnerable to US-China trade war escalation Technical Breakdown : Break below 0.6520 support with Fibonacci targets at 0.6443, 0.6311, and 0.6254 Dollar Strength : Government shutdown paradoxically supports USD strength by removing spending and debt payments from the equation RSI Momentum : RSI shows room for further decline with potential head and shoulders pattern forming, targeting the neckline first This macro/technical alignment presents a strong trading setup. When others chase gold headlines, smart traders can position for the AUD breakdown. Trade smart, respect the levels, and don't miss this overlooked opportunity. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

07:45

Gold smashes record high: Gov shutdown + EOM flows drive rally Gold hit fresh all-time highs above $3,875 as multiple catalysts converged on September 30th. Let's break down the perfect storm driving this bull run and critical technical levels ahead. Key Market Drivers: US Government Shutdown: Congress fails to agree on fiscal budget by tonight's deadline – no jobs data Friday, Fed flies blind into October meeting Fed Rate Cut Odds: 89% probability of October cut, 65% chance of December follow-up as economic data blackout begins China's Golden Week: 8-day market closure starting tomorrow removes world's largest gold consumer from active trading End-of-Month Flows: Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing adding fuel to momentum Technical Analysis: Triangle Breakout : Confirmed breakout from major consolidation pattern Fibonacci Targets : 200% extension at $3,885 (current area), next target $3,920 Elliott Wave Count : Approaching potential 5th wave completion near $4,000 RSI Setup: Flat momentum suggests another leg higher before divergence Trading Levels: Resistance: $3,885 (200% Fib), $3,920 (triangle target), $4,000 (psychological) Support: $3,830, $3,790 (swing low), $3,750 (triangle support) Channel: Ascending channel intact – trend bullish while above support Strategy : Bullish Bias : Continuation above $3,850, target $3,920-$4,000 Risk Scenario: IF (possible) government deal reached, watch for profit-taking to $3,790 Stop Loss: Above $3,910 for any short-term correction trades A historic confluence of political dysfunction, monetary policy uncertainty, and technical breakout adds to bullish bias. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

09:14

Gold Tops $3,800 to New Record as Traders Wonder: Short or Long?Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is back in the spotlight, flashing new record highs in bold efforts to reclaim its throne as the ultimate “don’t panic” asset. The yellow metal hit a record high of $3,820 per ounce early Monday morning before cooling slightly to hover near $3,810. That’s up more than 47% year-to-date, absolutely crushing Bitcoin’s BITSTAMP:BTCUSD modest 17% gain and the S&P 500’s SP:SPX respectable-but-boring 13%. So the question isn’t whether gold is hot — it’s what traders should do about it. Go long, go short, or sit tight with popcorn and watch the shiny show? Let’s break it down. 🤸🏻‍♀️ 📈 A Rally Forged in a Rush Gold’s monster run this year didn’t happen in a vacuum. Inflation has stayed sticky, but not alarmingly so — Core PCE clocked in at 2.9% in August, unchanged from July. More importantly, markets are convinced that Jerome Powell and his not-so-merry band of central bankers will restart the rate-cutting cycle. Following the September cut , another trim could come as early as October. Lower rates mean the opportunity cost of holding gold gets a lot smaller. (Gold famously pays no yield, no dividends, no interest, no nothing!). If Treasuries aren’t giving you much, parking money in shiny metal suddenly feels smarter. That’s been a huge tailwind for bullion. On top of that, Trump last week announced tariffs on imported drugs, trucks, and furniture. Every time the tariff machine fires up, traders reach for their safe-haven toolkit. Spoiler: gold is always in there. ✨ Why Gold Still Glitters Gold isn’t just a shiny rock — it’s a psychological anchor. Investors treat it like insurance against bad times. With rate cuts looming, central banks are buying aggressively. That way demand has a natural floor. Global central banks, led by heavyweights like the US, China, Russia, and Turkey, have been stacking gold for months. That creates a structural bid under prices, no matter what institutional investors are doing day-to-day. And don’t forget the everyday crowd: ETFs and bullion dealers have seen renewed inflows as traders hedge against “what if Powell loses control?” scenarios. In short: gold thrives when confidence in the dollar, the economy, or politics falters. Check, check, and check. The dollar’s lower by about 10% on the year, the economy may or may not be adding jobs after wild job-count revisions . And politics? That’s where the US slaps tariffs on everyone. 📉 The Bearish Angle: Why Short Might Work Now for the spicy take — maybe gold’s run is overdone. At nearly $3,800, the metal’s flirting with parabolic territory. There’s no recent support for a potential rebound so the way south could be steep. As steep as the first available support zone near $3,500. Shorting gold here is essentially a bet that: • The Fed’s cuts are already priced in. • Inflation could flare up again, forcing rates higher, which could pressure gold. • Risk assets rebound, reducing the appeal of hiding out in safe havens. And let’s not forget: gold’s moves aren’t always rational. When everyone’s piled into the same safe haven, the smallest spark can trigger a stampede for the exits. A dip back to $3,500 — the April record — wouldn’t surprise seasoned traders. Speaking of steep selloffs, that’s exactly what happened after that April high. 🚀 The Bullish Angle: Why Long Still Makes Sense On the other hand, momentum is a beast, and right now, gold has it. Every dip this year has been met with eager buying. As long as central banks keep accumulating and the Fed sticks to the rate-cutting script, the long case should stay intact. The macro backdrop is still uncertain and murky: tariffs, wobbly jobs data, political drama, and a dollar that looks tired. That’s not a bad mix for more upside. A decisive breakout above $3,791 could put $4,000 on the radar, giving long traders another juicy leg higher. 🔀 Noise, Narratives, and the Middle Ground Here’s the tricky part: both the bull and bear cases have merit. Gold’s fundamentals support strength, but technicals hint at exhaustion (RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions). That’s why positioning is everything. Reliable stops and clear risk-reward targets are your friends here — whether you’re riding the momentum wave or calling its top. Seasoned traders know this dance: gold rallies hard, then chops sideways for weeks, lulling everyone into boredom before it explodes again. The key is not to let noise — tariffs, tweets, or Fed chatter — shake you out of your plan. But also, keep an eye on the Economic calendar and be ready for the next wave of reports and data. 🎯 Bottom Line Gold’s 47% rally this year makes it the star of the market, but it also makes it vulnerable. A case exists for shorts (froth, more than anything) and for longs (structural demand, central bank buying, Fed easing). The real takeaway? Don’t pick a side out of emotion. If gold breaks convincingly above $3,791, momentum traders will be justified in staying long. If it fails at resistance and rolls over, bears may get their payday. Off to you : What’s your position in gold? Are you looking for more appreciation or you’re a short seller? Share your thoughts in the comment section!

Gold Pops 5% as Fed Fears Drive Demand. New Record High Soon?Gold bugs are doing well this summer. The yellow metal OANDA:XAUUSD just logged its best monthly performance since April, climbing nearly 5% in August and closing at $3,447 per ounce on Friday – its highest level since mid-June. As stock bros take a break for Labor Day on Monday, gold bugs are pushing higher, challenging the current all-time high with another leg up to $3,490. But before the ATH hits, let's see how we got here. Between Fed drama, Trump-vs-Lisa Cook headlines, and falling yields , gold suddenly looks like the life raft everyone wants. 🕺🏻 Let’s break it down. 🤸‍♀️ 🏦 Fed Drama Meets Gold Fever When politics and monetary policy collide, volatility follows – and gold traders have been feasting on it. President Donald Trump’s latest target? Lisa Cook, a Biden-appointed Fed governor and one of the crew of seven responsible for setting interest rates. Trump wants her out, she wants to stay , and a federal court hearing wrapped Friday without a ruling on whether he can fire her while her lawsuit plays out. The bigger picture: this fight is about Fed independence – or what’s left of it. A perceived White House grip on rate decisions injects more uncertainty into markets, and when things get murky, gold shines. Traders don’t just buy bullion for safe-haven vibes; they’re hedging against the possibility that the Fed is less independent than we thought. The Trump-vs-Lisa Cook fight is a precedent, a sight never seen in the history of America. 📉 Rate Cut Bets Are Back on the Table Friday’s inflation data – the Personal Consumption Expenditures ECONOMICS:USPCEPI price index – came in exactly as expected, up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Core PCE clocked in at 2.9%, in line with consensus. That’s the Fed's favored inflation metric so it holds big weight when central bankers get together to decide whether to keep, hike, or cut borrowing costs. Last month's readout showed predictable numbers that set off a chain reaction: markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a September rate cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Rates are instrumental in adjusting the prices of gold because it doesn’t pay any yield. In a high-rate world, holding bullion means losing out on returns you’d get from Treasuries or savings accounts – a classic opportunity cost, in economic lingo. But when rates drop, that cost shrinks, and the shiny metal suddenly looks far more attractive as a store of value rather than a drag on returns. In short, lower yields + lower dollar = stronger demand for gold. And with the dollar down 2.2% in August, the tailwind is getting stronger, helping explain gold’s upswing. 📈 A Double Top… or a Line Crossed? Here’s where things get spicy for chart-watchers. Friday’s rally pushed gold right up against its mid-June peak above $3,440 per ounce, forming what looked suspiciously like a double top pattern – a bearish setup where prices stall twice at the same resistance level before heading lower. Only that, it didn't take long for momentum to carry gold past the double-top pattern and into record-close territory. Fast fact: gold’s record high is just about $10 to $30 away from current market prices. The precious metal hit $3,500 in late April, just before shaving off some $200 in a bruising two-day wipeout . 🛍️ Why Gold Is Back in Fashion Gold’s rally is about technicals as much as it is about vibes and fundamentals. And right now, the macro backdrop is doing the heavy lifting: Fed policy uncertainty is making traders nervous Political drama over Fed independence is adding fuel Falling yields are pulling investors into non-yielding assets Dollar weakness is inviting overseas buyers to pile in 👀 What Traders Should Watch Next This week could be pivotal for gold’s next leg: The upcoming nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report on Friday will set the tone. Prediction gurus have pinned their expectations at 78,000 hires in August, about the same as the previous month’s 73,000. What about revisions? That’s a thing now, after the last reading trimmed 258,000 jobs off May and June. A weak jobs print would reinforce fears of a slowing economy, cementing expectations of a September rate cut – a potentially bullish setup for gold. On the flip side, a blowout number could cool the rally. Also on deck: more chatter from the Federal Reserve ahead of its September 16-17 meeting, especially around the firing of Lisa Cook. For now, traders are watching the $3,450–$3,460 resistance zone like hawks. That’s the line between a short-term top and a fresh breakout. 👉 The Takeaway Gold just had its best monthly run in four months, but it’s walking a tightrope at a critical resistance level. With prices less than 1% away from the all-time high, the next move could define the rest of the quarter for bullion (and maybe even the fourth quarter). If you’re trading this, two camps are emerging: Breakout believers think falling yields and the mosaic of data are about to send prices ripping above $3,500. Doom-and-gloom permabears see more froth than substance, saying prices can only go one way from here. Off to you: Which side are you on? Share your thoughts and observations in the comments!

Gold, Silver soar on rate cut hopes & Trump tariff rulling Gold and silver are making headlines as both metals surge amid a mix of macroeconomic and technical factors. Gold is trading just below its all-time record, having recently touched $3,495 per ounce, while silver has soared to a 14-year high of above $40.50. The main catalyst behind this rally is growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, following dovish signals from Fed officials and signs of a softening US job market. With markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut, the US dollar has weakened, making non-yielding assets, such as gold and silver, more attractive. The recent US court ruling that deemed most of President Trump’s tariffs illegal has added further pressure on the dollar, while thin trading conditions due to a US bank holiday have amplified price moves. Bullish signals for gold and silver are strong. Both metals are also benefiting from tight supply conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold is consolidating just below record highs, and technical analysis points to a potential breakout from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. If confirmed, this could propel gold toward new highs, with targets in the $3,550–$3,820 range. Silver’s rally is supported by a classic pennant formation, with technical projections suggesting a move toward $42 is possible in the short term. However, there are bearish risks to consider. If upcoming US employment data surprises to the upside or inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed could delay or scale back rate cuts, which would strengthen the dollar and potentially cap further gains in gold and silver. Additionally, both metals are trading near major resistance levels, and a failure to break out convincingly could trigger profit-taking or a technical pullback. For gold, support sits around $3,440, with the 50-day moving average at $3,350 providing a key floor. For silver, a drop below $39.55 could signal a short-term reversal. While the setup favours further upside, especially if the Fed delivers on market expectations, traders should stay alert to key data releases and resistance levels that could shift the narrative in either direction. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

11:11

GOLD HITS RECORD $3,300/OZ – WHAT IS IT TELLING US?Since 2020, stocks and gold have danced to very different rhythms. Initially, equities ran far ahead, but now… the tide is turning fast. 📉 As the equity market sinks into a bear phase, capital is pouring into gold. Just in the last 9 months, gold has surged over $1,000/oz — a historic move rarely seen outside of crisis periods. 💬 We’ve been calling this for over a year: Gold is now the ONLY global safe haven. US bonds are no longer the refuge they once were. Investors are voting with their wallets — and gold is winning. Let’s put it into perspective: ➡️ Over the last 20 years: • Gold is up +620% • S&P 500 is up +580% 📈 Gold is trading like we’re in a modern depression — quietly pricing in risk, instability, and loss of trust in traditional instruments. 🧠 The question is no longer "why is gold rising?" — it’s "why didn’t more people see this coming?"

Gold Rush Sweeps Global Markets: What’s Behind the Record Run?The shiny stuff has outperformed stocks by a lot this year, sparking a debate over gold’s characteristics as an asset: is it just a pet rock that does nothing but sit idle, or is it the ultimate timeless store of value that trounces every competitor in times of uncertainty and gloomy outlook? Gold XAU/USD is so back — the precious metal has outperformed nearly every other megacap asset, including the S&P 500 where 500 of America’s biggest and brightest companies generate returns for shareholders like a restless corporate machine. Since the start of trading this year, gold is up a solid 25% to hit a record high of $2,590 earlier this week. In comparison, the broad-based Wall Street average, the S&P 500 SPX , is up 18% over the same time span. Thank the impatient people who bet on prospects and can’t wait for the rumor to materialize. To a fairly big extent, the gains in gold are driven by the prospects of lower borrowing costs. Not the single cut to interest rates , which would be in the ballpark of 25 basis points to 50 basis points. That’s fairly fresh — way before that, early in 2024, investors were high on hopium that they’ll get as many as six slashes to interest rates. Hopes Fade but Gains Stay Gold didn’t show any signs of fatigue despite the Fed pushing against the consensus views. It plowed through mixed bags of macro reports showing that the US economy was zig-zagging between hot and cold. Ultimately, gold won back its reputation as a preferred investment in times of shifting monetary policy landscapes, brewing geopolitical tensions , and overall uncertainty and gloomy outlook for global markets. The fast-paced, hot-to-the-touch gold market today is in stark contrast to historical performance. During the time frame 2011 through 2018, gold was virtually muted and hugging the flatline with nothing exciting about it. Right now, gold’s everywhere — from the retail trader’s portfolio to the central banks’ vaults. Global central banks, the money-printing machines with infinite reserves, stacked up the bullion to the tune of 483 tons in the first half of the year, says the World Gold Council. It’s a record since record-keeping began. Good Guy Gold But wait, that's not all — gold has buoyed some free riders. Gold-backed assets are partying hard, too. Gold mining companies are whizzing through, riding on massive year-to-date gains with the top performers up about 30%. Exchange-traded funds with exposure to gold are flaunting big gains as well. These gold ETFs barely flash any red on the year with the top players flexing advances by as much as 50%. The Great Portfolio Rotation or What’s Opportunity Cost? By the looks of it, there’s this portfolio rotation into gold in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate cut. The US central bank is getting ready to knock down the cost of borrowing in an effort to alleviate some of the strain on the economy and lean against a possible recession. What’s gold’s role in all that hubbub? Gold gets more attractive amid lower interest rates thanks to something called “opportunity cost.” In a nutshell, higher rates generally benefit fixed-income assets like bonds that get you guaranteed returns. And why jam your money into gold when you can ride out the high-rate wave and churn out 5% on the 10-year bond US10Y . That’s opportunity cost — missing out on fun, gains and dopamine while your hands are full with a non-yielding asset. What we’ve seen so far is a marked shift away from it. Bond yields are falling in anticipation of the Fed’s rate cut, prompting investors to ramp up their long positions in the yellow bars, which are notorious for … well … yielding nothing. In other words, holding gold gets you no yield, interest, or dividend whatsoever, unlike bonds or the US dollar deposits where you can sit around and do nothing and still make money. The prospects of downshifting interest rates have diminished the opportunity cost of non-yielding gold. Apparently, the shiny metal still has it — whenever the right conditions perk up, gold lives up to its standards of being a safe haven and a store of value. What’s your take on gold? Do you have a long position in it or you’re a permabear who’s brave enough to short it at the top? Comment below!