Gold- From weekly to 15m chart. Where are the trades?These days, everyone has an opinion on Gold.
Most of them are bullish.
And to be fair — so am I.
But here is what many traders either don’t understand or simply ignore:
There is a huge difference between having an opinion and having a tradable opinion.
A tradable opinion is one that can actually be executed in the market, with leverage, risk control, and realistic stops — not just a direction on a chart.
This analysis is not about saying “Gold is bullish, it will go to 6k or 7k, I’m a genius if it does.”
It’s about giving traders something they can actually work with.
🔎 Weekly Chart — Big Picture Reality
Three things stand out immediately:
1️⃣ The 5600 → 4400 drop
Yes, it was massive:
- ~12,000 pips
- large in percentage terms
- emotionally shocking
But in long-term trend terms?
👉 Just a correction.
Even if we measure only the 2025 rally, the drop didn’t even reach a 50% retracement.
2️⃣ Technical respect of structure
The decline stopped almost exactly at the October 2025 ATH, which acted as support.
Markets remember levels.
This is not random.
3️⃣ Alignment with congestion
The drop also aligned with:
- the late-December congestion zone
- the starting price of 2026
The first prices of the year often act as major S/R zones.
This is classic market behavior.
✅ Conclusion from Weekly:
Trend is bullish. No debate here.
❌ But tradable?
Not really.
Why?
Because a correct structural stop would be ~8,000 pips away.
With leverage, that’s not trading — that’s praying.
🔎 Daily Chart — Still Bullish, Still Not Tradable
On the daily:
- clean reversal from support
- first impulsive leg up
- pullback forming a higher low
- recent Piercing Line bullish pattern
Again:
✅ Bullish structure
❌ Not tradable structure
A proper stop still sits ~4,000 pips away.
That’s not risk management.
🔎 15-Minute Chart — Where Trading Actually Happens for me lately
Given current volatility, this is what matters these days
Here’s what we see:
- initial rally in a rising wedge
- rejection from resistance
- drop from 5100 → 4650 contained within a bullish flag relative to the impulse
- breakout above flag resistance
- continuation toward 5k
- NY close near highs
Structurally?
👉 Still bullish.
But even here:
❌ Buying blindly at 4965 makes no sense.
We need a dip.
We need structure.
We need asymmetric risk.
📌 The Two Buy Zones That Make Sense
If price offers them:
✅ 4900
✅ 4800
Those are the zones where risk/reward becomes logical.
⚠️ The Reality Most Traders Don’t Want to Hear
Even on a 15M chart:
- stops of 300–500 pips are normal
- targets should be well above 1,000 pips
Let’s be honest:
Bragging about a 100-pip Gold target these days is like bragging about a 2-pip win on a EURUSD trade.
simply not trading...
✅ Final Conclusion
✔️ Gold is bullish
✔️ I will look to buy dips
✔️ But only with structure and discipline
Because in this environment:
- volatility is extreme
- emotions are expensive
- precision matters more than bias
A trader’s job is not to be right.
A trader’s job is to make money.
And those are two very different things. 🚀
P.S.
And yes — if I see a clear reversal structure on the 15-minute chart, I can take a short trade, even if my overall bias on Gold remains bullish.
This does not contradict my opinion.
It simply reflects the reality that:
You can be bullish on the bigger picture and still trade short-term corrections.
Have a nice Saturday!
Mihai Iacob
