XAUUSD3 week continue long on gold after breaking 3500 , it took 3 month around , are we looking for 4000 coming within this month? is gold short or keep up trend.? i am sure everyone have this question in mind.
i have drawed line to understand what could happend as it is an analysis base on education, every price need to be confirmed after breakout and retested with rejection,,, and it take time to predict the direction of the market.
i had a great 3 week. how about you leave your thoughts in the comment.
Goldtrader
Goldman lays out the case for $5,000 gold – here’s how it happenGoldman Sachs has warned that gold prices could surge to $5000/oz if the Trump administration succeeds in undermining the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
A politicized Fed is seen as likely to cut rates extremely aggressively (Treasury Secretory Scott Bessent and Trump have called for an interest rate of 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively) to stimulate short-term growth, raising the risk of higher inflation.
Such a move could drive investors away from traditional safe havens like the U.S. dollar and government bonds. In a report released this week, Goldman noted that if just 1% of the privately held U.S. Treasury market shifted into gold, prices could rise by about 40% from current levels.
Best Trend-Following Price Model For Gold XAUUSD Trading
In this article, I will show you a powerful chart setup for profitable trend following trading Gold. I will break down how it works with examples.
Here is how this price model looks:
It is based on 5 important conditions that should be strictly met.
1 - Gold should trade in a global bullish trend.
The price should consistently update Higher Highs HH and Higher Lows HL.
2 - Higher Lows should respect a rising trend line, acting as a support.
It should be respected by at least 3 consequent bullish movements from that.
3 - After a formation of a high above a trend line, the price should start a correctional movement in a minor trend in a bullish flag pattern.
It can be a horizontal, parallel or expanding channel.
4 - Correcting, Gold should test a major rising trend line, being within a flag.
5 - A bullish movement should initiate after a trend line test and the price should break and close above a resistance line of a flag.
When all these 5 conditions are met, we can expect a bullish movement on Gold at least to a level of a current high from where a correction started.
A broken resistance line of a flag and a major rising trend line will compose a safe zone to buy Gold from.
The best time frame for this model will be a daily.
Let's study a real example of such a price model on Gold chart on a daily.
Examine a price chart of Gold on a daily time frame above.
All 5 conditions are met, and we can anticipate a rise to the underlined red resistance.
Our buy zone will be based on a broken resistance of the flag and a major rising trend line.
You can see that our goal was successfully reached.
Here is the proof -
This price model will help you to predict strong bullish waves , trading Gold. A simple combination of a trend analysis and a price action are the 2 basic components that you need to study to identify that properly.
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BTCUSDi am looking for 1 sharpe retest and quick short on btcusd, as on major higher and high 3 major attempt on weekly time frame. simple draw line you may understand the reason as trend line has a huge gap beetween market that gap considerd to be filed up... if btc continued go high by end of this year. let me know your opinion in the comment. trade with confirmation only.
Good News and Bad News for Gold as It Hits Record HighsAs gold continues to surge to record highs (~$3600) , two major risks exist that could impact its momentum—one potentially positive, and the other negative.
The Potential Removal of Trump's Tariffs
A federal appeals court recently ruled that Trump’s tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, were unlawful. As a result, U.S. businesses have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that are now considered illegal.
Trump’s administration is preparing an appeal to the Supreme Court, and if the tariffs are reversed, it could reduce Treasury revenue. This could lead to increased borrowing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Concerns Over the Fed's Independence
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence also pose a risk to gold. If these concerns grow, markets could price in a higher risk premium against the dollar, which could boost gold’s appeal.
Helping to moderate these concerns, at least for now, two Republican senators recently announced they would block any replacement for Fed Governor Lisa Cook until her lawsuit over her firing is resolved.
GOLD (XAUUSD): The Next Potential Resistances
As Gold is now trading in a no man's land, here are
2 potentially strong resistances that I spotted.
Psychological Resistance 1: 3550
Psychological Resistance 2: 3600
The price is heading toward Resistance 1.
It will most likely be the next goal for the buyers.
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Silver’s 14-Year High: Can the Rally Continue?Silver is currently trading at a 14-year high, and the real test begins as price approaches key resistance levels near $41.00–$41.65.
The same factors pushing gold higher are likely behind silver’s climb. Traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. At the same time, there’s growing concern that the Trump administration is working to undermine the Fed's independence and jeopardise the US economy.
However, short-term conditions suggest that silver may be somewhat overextended, increasing the likelihood of a pullback or consolidation before any further upside. For now, the trend remains potentially bullish as long as XAG/USD holds above the critical trendline support at $39.906. In case of any sharp dips, the safety net might sit around $37.49.
GOLD (XAUUSD): ATH Soon! What's Next?!
What a market opening on Gold!
Bull run continues, and the price is going to reach a current All-Time High soon.
Watching how strong is the momentum, it feels like the market is going to
update the ATH.
Your next confirmation to buy will be a daily candle close above 3500.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Another Breakout Ahead?!
Gold closed on Friday, testing a major horizontal resistance cluster.
Taking into consideration a strong bullish momentum,
the price may violate that as well.
Your next confirmation to buy will be a breakout of the underlined structure
and a daily candle close above 3452.
A bullish continuation to 3492 will be expected then.
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Citi’s bold gold forecast for next 3 months Citi has raised its 3-month gold price target to $3,500-$3,600/oz, up from it previous guidance of $3,300.
The upgrade follows a deteriorating US economic outlook, weakening labor market trends, and growing concerns over Fed and data independence.
Gold is currently testing a critical resistance zone near $3,380, a level that has previously shown signs of price rejection. Although $3,365 arguably might have been the tougher resistance... which is now broken.
The presence of higher lows from previous months could suggest continued strength, potentially supporting the expectation of Citi for gold to trade in the $3,500–$3,600 range.
What to trade if you can't trust jobs data? U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reportedly in response to jobs figures he disagreed with.
This raises concerns about the integrity of government-reported economic data, especially ahead of the next key Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on September 5.
This upcoming report also includes the BLS’s annual revision, adjusting past job growth figures from April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs “estimate a downward revision on the order of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs—or a reduction of 45,000 to 80,000 jobs per month over the April 2024 to March 2025 period.”
Given macro uncertainty and signs of distrust in U.S. economic data, the bid for gold may persist.
Gold has rebounded sharply in recent sessions, breaking a short-term downtrend and climbing back above the 3,360 level. Price has now retraced more than 50.0% of the July 24–31 selloff. The pair may be Short-term bullish, if price holds above 3,310.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Move Up Ahead?!
Friday's fundamentals made Gold very bullish during the New York session.
The price formed a high momentum bullish candle on a daily,
breaking a minor daily resistance area.
It gives us a confirmed Change of Character CHoCH and indicates
a highly probable bullish continuation next week.
I think that the price will reach 3400 level.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Continuation Ahead?!
Gold retested a recently broken significant liquidity cluster.
I see a clear sign of strength of the sellers after its test
with multiple intraday confirmation.
I think that the price will retrace to day to 3276 level.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Demand Zone Ahead
Gold is currently retracing from a key daily horizontal resistance.
Here are important structures to watch.
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 3350 - 3377 area
Support 2: 3310 - 3324 area
Support 3: 3282 - 3301 area
Support 4: 3245 - 3374 area
Resistance 1: 3431 - 3451 area
Resistance 2: 3493 - 3500 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: rising trend line
Vertical and Horizontal Supports 1 compose a contracting demand zone.
Probabilities are high the price will pull back from that.
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7.22 London Gold Market Analysis and Operation SuggestionsFrom the market perspective, the trend suppression line from the historical high of 3500 to the secondary high of 3452 has moved over time and is now around 3420, which can be used as an important resistance level reference for this week; the previous resistance level of 3376 can be converted into support after breaking through. For intraday short-term operations, focus on this range of callbacks and go long, wait for the key resistance level to be touched before going short, or see if there is an opportunity to arrange a mid-term short order based on the real-time trend.
Specific intraday operation ideas:
①. When the gold price falls back to around 3380, participate in long orders and call, protect the position of 3374, and first look at the position of 3402, the high point on Monday;
②. After yesterday's high point breaks, wait for a correction to around 3395 to continue to participate in long orders and call, protect the position of 3388, and look at the key suppression level of 3420;
③. (Aggressive orders, for those who are afraid of missing out) If you are short or have enough positions, you can first participate in long orders with a light position at the current price of 3388, and wait for 3380 to increase your position, and the target is the same as above.
Analysis of short-term gold trading on July 22Technical aspects:
From the daily candlestick chart, gold has recently shown signs of breaking upward after five weeks of sideways fluctuations. In terms of MACD indicators, the MACD bar chart has turned from green to red, and the fast and slow lines have formed a "golden cross", strengthening the expectation of a short-term technical rebound.
At the same time, the 14-day RSI index rebounded to 57.67, still in the neutral and strong area, and has not yet entered the overbought area, indicating that the price still has room to rise. Analysis shows that the middle track of the Bollinger Band 3342 constitutes initial support, while the strong support below is at the two previous lows of 3247.87 and 3120.64.
If the bulls maintain their advantage above the integer position of 3400, they are expected to hit the high point of 3451.14 in the short term, and even further test the historical high of 3499.83; on the contrary, if they fall back below 3342, the short-term upward momentum will be tested.
Bull analysis:
If gold successfully stands above 3400, the market will turn its attention to the two key resistance areas of 3451 and 3499, the high point of the year. Breaking through the former will open up the space to test the historical high upward; combined with the current MACD golden cross pattern, if the capital side and the fundamentals continue to cooperate, it is not ruled out that there will be a short-term accelerated rise.
Bear analysis:
If the breakthrough fails, especially if gold falls back below the middle track of Bollinger, the adjustment pressure will be restarted, and the lower edge of the previous consolidation range of 3300 will constitute an important support. If it falls below again, it is necessary to pay attention to the important technical support near 3247 and the 100-day moving average of 3180.
7.22 Gold falls back and continues to be bullish, 3400 is not thFrom the 4-hour analysis, the short-term support below is 3370, the important support is 3350-55, and the upper resistance is 3400-05. The overall support during the day is to maintain the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple cycles in this range. For the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
XAUUSD Analysis – Smart Money Perspective XAUUSD Analysis – Smart Money Perspective
🧠 Market Structure & BOS (Break of Structure):
The chart clearly shows multiple Break of Structure (BOS), confirming bullish intent.
After the final BOS around 3,370, price aggressively broke above resistance, forming a new high at 3,397.
This indicates bullish market momentum backed by strong demand.
🔎 Key Zones Identified:
🔼 Strong Resistance (3,390 – 3,400 Zone)
This level has been tested and now shows potential exhaustion, possibly trapping late buyers.
Price currently rejecting this zone with a bearish reaction.
🔽 Support Zone (3,300 – 3,320)
Prior consolidation and BOS originate from here.
Strong bullish OB and demand lie here—key area for future long setups.
📉 Expected Short-Term Move:
The projection arrow indicates a potential retracement toward 3,360, a previous BOS + potential FVG area.
This aligns with Smart Money's tendency to rebalance inefficiencies before continuation.
🔺 Volume Analysis (VRVP - Volume Profile):
Notice how high volume nodes align with the support and resistance zones.
Price is currently sitting in a low-volume gap, supporting the idea of a retracement to a more balanced area.
⚡ Momentum Shift Signal:
The steep angle of the last move up suggests possible liquidity grab above resistance.
Expectation: Price may dip to mitigate demand or OB before resuming the uptrend.
✅ Conclusion:
This chart illustrates a textbook SMC scenario:
Bullish BOS confirms structure shift.
Liquidity sweep above resistance may lead to a retracement.
3,360 is a key price point to watch for FVG fills or bullish continuation.
Banana republic fears, gold tests $3,400Traders now price in a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, as political pressure on the central bank intensifies.
Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has officially accused Fed Chair Powell of perjury, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called for a full inquiry into the institution.
Earlier this month, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen told The New Yorker that these actions “...are the ones one expects from the head of a banana republic that is about to start printing money to fund fiscal deficits.”
Amid this backdrop, gold surged past $3,390 per ounce. The 1-hour XAU/USD chart shows strong bullish momentum supported by the Ichimoku cloud: price is well above the cloud with a clean breakout and lagging span confirmation. Immediate resistance sits at $3,400, with a potential extension toward $3,440–$3,450 if bullish pressure holds.
Meanwhile, EUR/USD remains in an uptrend on the daily chart, bouncing from pitchfork support. A sustained move above 1.1700 could reopen the path toward 1.1800+.
Buy first when gold falls back, and pay attention to the strengtGold went on a roller coaster ride last week. It rose to around 3377 at the beginning of the week and then fell back under pressure. After stabilizing near 3309 on Thursday, it strengthened again on Friday and came under pressure near 3361. It fell back slightly to around 3344 at the opening in the morning and is currently rising again. In the morning, pay attention to the opportunity to buy first after the pullback, pay attention to the strength of the European session, and pay attention to the pressure near 3378/80 on the upside.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Sticking to the Plan
Update for my last Sunday's post for Gold.
Previously, we spotted a cup & handle pattern on a daily time frame.
It turned into an ascending triangle pattern - another bullish formation this week.
I am sticking to the same plan - our strong bullish signal is a breakout
of a neckline of the pattern and a daily candle close above 3378.
It will confirm a strong up movement.
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Analysis of 7.17 Gold Operation: Buy High and Sell LowYesterday, the trend of gold in the first half was quite regular. The rebound in the Japanese session was under pressure, and the European session continued to fall back to test the 3320 mark. The key here has been repeatedly emphasized yesterday. The gold market in the second half was more exciting. First, the news was released that Trump was ready to draft the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Gold directly rose by 50 US dollars and broke through the recent high of 3375. Then he said that he had no intention of dismissing the Federal Reserve Chairman. Gold rushed up and fell back by 40 US dollars. The daily line finally closed with an inverted hammer pattern with a very long upper shadow line.
After the end of this pattern, today's market is still bearish. If the market is extremely weak, it will continue to fall below 3358. Pay attention to the attack and defense of the 3320 mark below. If it falls below, it will open the downward space to test the 3300 mark. During the day, we will temporarily set the small range of 3320-3358 to run, sell high and buy low, and retreat to 3325. One low long, defend yesterday's low, look up to 3335, 3342, 3358, and then reverse high.
7.17 Gold Short-Term Operation Technical Analysis!!!After a strong rise in the 1-hour gold price, it quickly fell back and closed with a long upper shadow line. The gold bulls did not successfully stabilize the market. This market is actually a venting of the news. The gold bulls are not very confident about rising again. The 1-hour gold moving average is still in a dead cross short pattern. So the gold rebound will continue to be short. The 1-hour gold pattern excludes the influence of the upper shadow line stimulated by yesterday's news. In fact, the whole rhythm is still fluctuating and falling. The upper shadow line is not long, and it is probably just a lure to buy more. After the ups and downs of gold last night, it rebounded again to the 3357 line or continued to fall under pressure. So gold will continue to rebound in the early trading and continue to be short at highs under the pressure of 3357.