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GOLD DAILY CHART LONG RANGE ROUTE MAPHey everyone, Please see our UPDATED Daily chart route map and trading idea with the extended channel to cover the Goldturn range. Price has dropped back into the channel and tested the midline following the strong corrective sell-off last Friday. As anticipated, the channel midline acted as key support and produced a bounce, despite the elevated volatility. We are now trading back within the broader daily range, defined by resistance near 5030 and support around 4794. Price action is expected to remain range-bound between these levels. A confirmed break and activation of new ranges will require either a decisive candle body close beyond or above the levels or confirmation via the EMA-5 lock. Further directional bias will depend on how price reacts upon retesting either boundary. We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas. Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops from rejections, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups. Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
27
GOLD H1 – CHOCH CONFIRMED, FVG HOLD COULD FUEL NEXT LEG UPMarket Context (Macro → Flow) Gold remains highly sensitive to USD strength, yield volatility, and Fed expectations. With markets still repricing the pace of future rate cuts, capital continues to rotate defensively rather than trend cleanly. This keeps gold in a reaction-based environment, where liquidity zones matter more than momentum. Technical Structure (H1) Clear CHOCH confirmed after the corrective leg Price is pulling back within the ascending channel, not a trend breakdown Current move is a technical retracement into imbalance (FVG) Bias stays constructive as long as demand is respected. Key Zones (H1) Primary BUY Zone (FVG): 4,760 – 4,689 Invalidation / Breakdown Level: H1 close below 4,689 Channel Support (soft): ~4,780 Upside Targets (If Reaction Confirms) TP1: 4,950 (prior structure high) TP2: 5,080 – 5,120 (channel mid / liquidity pocket) TP3: 5,212 (major H1 resistance & extension) Scenarios (If–Then) Bullish Continuation: If price holds the FVG and forms a higher low on H1 → continuation toward 5,12x–5,21x Bearish Extension: If H1 closes below 4,689 → structure weakens, deeper pullback likely Trading Mindset This is not a chase market. Let price come into the zone → wait for confirmation → manage risk. 🧠 In volatile macro conditions, discipline at key levels beats prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
10
XAUUSD – High Volatility Compression, Trade the Break or Reactio📌 Market Context Gold remains in a high-volatility environment, transitioning from a strong impulsive move into a compression / corrective channel on H1. This price behavior reflects aggressive two-way flows as the market digests macro uncertainty (Fed policy outlook, USD sensitivity, headline risk). At this stage, Gold is not trending smoothly — it is rotating between key zones, making reaction-based trading essential. ➡️ Current state: Volatile & technical – patience > prediction. 📊 Structure & Price Action (H1) Price is trading inside a descending corrective channel after the prior bullish impulse. Recent downside momentum is slowing, with buyers stepping in at lower channel support. No confirmed bullish CHoCH yet, but sell pressure is weakening. Market is approaching a decision zone where breakout or continuation will be decided. 🔎 Key insight: This is a compression phase — expect an expansion once price decisively reacts at key levels. 🎯 Trading Plan – MMF Style 🔵 Primary Scenario – Buy the Reaction From Demand Focus on confirmation, not anticipation. BUY Zone 1: 4,765 – 4,750 Lower channel support Short-term demand + corrective low BUY Zone 2: 4,866 – 4,850 Mid-range demand Reaction zone if higher low forms ➡️ Execute BUYs only if: Clear bullish rejection candle appears Or H1 forms a Higher Low / break of internal structure Upside Targets: TP1: 4,920 TP2: 5,030 TP3: 5,185 (major resistance / upper range) 🔴 Alternative Scenario – Sell at Resistance Reaction If price rallies into supply but fails to hold momentum: SELL Zone: 5,180 – 5,200 Key resistance Fibonacci retracement + prior rejection area Downside Targets: TP1: 4,920 TP2: 4,866 TP3: 4,765 ❌ Invalidation A confirmed H1 close below 4,750 invalidates the recovery scenario and opens risk for deeper continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
8
Gold May Continue Short-Term Correction Amid High Volatility📊 Market Overview: Earlier today, spot gold (XAU/USD) experienced a sharp sell-off toward the 4,655 USD/oz area before rebounding. This move highlights elevated market volatility, driven by a firm US dollar and cautious investor sentiment following the previous strong rally. Dip-buying emerged near lower levels, but short-term selling pressure remains evident. 📉 Technical Analysis: Key Resistances: • 4,900 – 4,950 USD • 5,020 – 5,080 USD Immediate Supports: • 4,700 – 4,750 USD • 4,600 – 4,650 USD EMA: • Price is hovering around the EMA 09, indicating an unclear short-term trend and a consolidating market. Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: • Large-range candles with long wicks show strong buying and selling pressure. Volume remains elevated, confirming active market participation, but bullish momentum is not yet strong enough to confirm a sustainable uptrend. 📌 Outlook: Gold may continue to correct in the short term if price fails to hold above the 4,700 USD/oz support, while rallies may continue to face profit-taking pressure. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4,947 – 4,950 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips ❌ SL: 4,957 🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4,703 – 4,700 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 / 300 pips ❌ SL: 4,693
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
2
XAUUSD – H4 Technical & Macro OutlookXAUUSD – H4 Technical & Macro Outlook: Liquidity Compression Ahead of Fed Expectations | Lana ✨ Gold is currently trading in a tight compression structure, while macro conditions are beginning to tilt in favour of precious metals. Weak US labour data and a growing probability of Fed rate cuts are putting pressure on the US Dollar, creating an important backdrop for the next move in gold. At the same time, price action on XAUUSD suggests the market is approaching a key liquidity-driven decision point. 📈 Technical Structure & Price Behaviour After failing to sustain above the upper supply zone near 5,200–5,300, gold entered a corrective decline and is now trading inside a descending wedge, bounded by falling resistance and rising support. Price is currently holding around 4,800–4,830, a short-term balance area. Repeated rejections from descending resistance indicate supply remains active. At the same time, sell-side liquidity is clearly resting below the structure, near 4,570–4,550. This behaviour suggests the market is not trending yet, but preparing for a liquidity expansion. 🔍 Key Levels to Monitor Near-Term Resistance: ~5,070 – 5,130 A key reaction zone aligned with Fibonacci retracement and prior structure. Compression Pivot: ~4,800 – 4,830 Holding above this area keeps price in consolidation mode. Sell-Side Liquidity: ~4,570 – 4,550 A likely downside target if the structure breaks lower. Major Supply (Higher TF): ~5,500 Still the upper boundary for any medium-term bullish continuation. 🎯 Likely Scenarios Scenario 1 – Liquidity Sweep Lower (Base Case): If price fails to hold the rising support, gold may dip toward 4,570–4,550 to clear sell-side liquidity. Such a move would likely be corrective, not a trend reversal, especially given the macro backdrop. Scenario 2 – Bullish Break from Compression: If price accepts above 5,070–5,130, the descending structure would be invalidated, opening the door for a recovery toward higher resistance zones. 🌍 Macro Context: USD Weakness & Fed Expectations Recent US labour data has reinforced concerns about economic momentum: JOLTS job openings fell sharply below expectations. ADP employment growth slowed significantly. CME FedWatch now shows a rising probability of a March rate cut, up from earlier in the week. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has struggled to extend its weekly gains, trading slightly lower while remaining near recent highs. This environment is typically supportive for gold, especially during corrective phases. Upcoming NFP data will be a key catalyst and may act as the trigger for the next liquidity expansion. 🧠 Lana’s View Gold is currently in a waiting phase, balancing between technical compression and shifting macro expectations. The focus should remain on how price reacts at the edges of the structure, rather than predicting direction too early. Patience is essential here. The next move is likely to be fast and liquidity-driven once the market commits. ✨ Respect the structure, follow the levels, and let the market reveal the next expansion.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
2
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our 4h chart route map and trading plan for the week ahead. We are now seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4925 and a gap below at 4844. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 4925 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4925 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5065 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5065 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5124 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5124 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5375 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5482 BEARISH TARGET 4844 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4844 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4741 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4741 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4592 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4592 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 4435 4297 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
XAUUSD H1 – Pullback Near Demand, Bulls Preparing the Next Leg?Gold is trading in a high-volatility recovery phase after the recent selloff, with price now pulling back into a clear H1 demand zone. This is a reaction-based market, where structure + fundamentals must align before continuation. 📌 Market Context (Fundamentals) Gold remains highly sensitive to macro headlines as markets reassess: Fed rate path expectations US data momentum vs. slowing growth signals Ongoing safe-haven demand on volatility spikes No clear hawkish shift so far → downside moves look corrective, not impulsive. ➡️ Bias: Wait for confirmation at demand, not chase price. 📊 H1 Structure & Technicals Prior selloff has lost momentum Price is forming a technical pullback, holding above the last reaction low Current move = rebalancing phase within a broader recovery Key demand aligns with Fibonacci discount area 🎯 Key Trading Zones (H1) 🟢 BUY Zone (Primary Demand): 4,720 – 4,700 (Strong reaction base + discount zone) ❌ Invalidation: H1 close below 4,700 → bullish recovery is invalidated 🎯 Upside Targets TP1: 5,080 (first recovery resistance) TP2: 5,345 (major H1 extension / liquidity target)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
Continue to adjust and identify entry points for long positions.Gold has been fluctuating by $200-300 daily recently, which is no longer unusual. Our focus should be on managing and minimizing risk. We're watching the resistance level around 5000-5020. Gold is likely to continue its consolidation before choosing a direction. On the downside, we're watching the support level around 4820-4800. Technically, we continue to focus on buying on dips that hold. Recent international developments, including the US-Iran negotiations, will be key drivers of gold's price movements. We must be cautious in the face of volatile markets. Overall, gold is expected to trend upwards with some volatility. We should continue to maintain our strategy of buying on dips. If you're interested in gold but don't know where to start or are experiencing difficulties with your trading, feel free to contact me for discussion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BullBear-GoldDesk
Mastering Gold Valuation Models: Unlock XAUUSD's True Worth!Title: 📚 Mastering Gold Valuation Models: Unlock XAUUSD's True Worth for 2026 Traders! 🚀 Hello TradingView community! 👋 Today, let's dive into XAUUSD with a detailed educational post focusing on gold valuation models, fundamentals, and insights. 📊 This isn't financial advice just an in-depth look based on public data to help you understand how to value this timeless asset. Current Snapshot: Price: $4,940.73 💵 52-Week High/Low: $5,595.46 / $2,832.63 📈📉 Market Cap: N/A (spot commodity) Fundamental Analysis (e.g., Valuation Models Explained): Gold is a unique asset without cash flows, dividends, or earnings, so traditional DCF isn't directly applicable. Instead, models treat it as a store of value, inflation hedge, or financial asset influenced by macros. Here's a structured breakdown of key gold valuation models to empower your analysis: - Interest Rate and Yield-Based Models 📉 : These view gold as a "zero-yield bond" where price inversely correlates with real interest rates (nominal minus inflation). For example, gold has an effective "real duration" of about 18 years a 1% rise in real yields (e.g., 10-year TIPS) historically drops inflation-adjusted gold prices by 18%. Simple formula: Fair Value ≈ Initial Value / (1 + Real Rate)^Time Horizon, adjusted for inflation expectations. In low/negative rate environments, this signals undervaluation (e.g., below $5,000 amid uncertainty). - Supply and Demand Equilibrium Models ⚖️ : Frameworks like the World Gold Council's Qaurum balance supply (mining ~3,000 tons/year, recycling) with demand (jewelry ~45%, investment ~25%, central banks ~20%). Recent central bank purchases (>1,000 tons annually) can project fair value ranges like $5,400 to $6,300 under 10% growth assumptions. Production cost models provide floors (~$1,200 to $1,500/oz), but ignore speculative flows great for macro scenario testing. - Relative Valuation Models 🔄: Compare gold to benchmarks for over/undervaluation. Ratios include S&P 500/Gold (e.g., ~1.36 ounces per S&P unit vs. historical averages signaling cheap gold) or gold's above-ground stock as ~50% of U.S. market cap (deviations from 20 to 50% norms indicate mispricing). Real yield correlation (~-0.7) highlights undervaluation in low-rate, high-uncertainty periods. - Long-Term Expected Return Models 📈: Estimate 2 to 4% real returns based on gold's dual role as a good and asset, tied to global GDP growth minus portfolio expansion. Over decades (e.g., 1992 to 2025), gold averaged ~7 to 8% annually vs. S&P's ~11%. Formula: Expected Return ≈ β1 × GDP Growth - β2 × Global Portfolio Growth. Useful for portfolio allocation. Key insights: Combine models for robustness e.g., yield-based for timing, supply-demand for fundamentals. Banks like Goldman forecast $5,400+ by year-end amid geopolitics. 📈 SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats): Strengths: 💪 Proven safe-haven with central bank demand (>1,000 tons/2025), low equity correlation (~0.4 beta to S&P). Weaknesses: ⚠️ No yield, high volatility (e.g., recent 10% drops), USD/rate sensitivity. Opportunities: 🌟 Geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran), potential Fed cuts, green tech industrial demand. Threats: 🛑 Hawkish policy shifts, conflict de-escalation, "digital gold" competition like Bitcoin. Technical and Risk Insights: Use non-repainting indicators like 200-day SMA (~$4,200 to $5,000 range for support/resistance). Current RSI (~35 to 40) often signals oversold 🚨. Risks: Interest rate exposure, macro attribution (~60% returns from trends vs. supply). Consider time-series like ARIMA for forecasts. 📉 Historical Context and Examples: Gold has delivered 7 to 8% annualized over 10+ years, with examples like 2022's recovery from $1,600 low to $2,000+ on inflation fears. Yield models predicted 2025 surges to $5,000+ amid low rates, showing how these frameworks inform real-market decisions. 📜 What do you think: Which gold valuation model resonates most with your XAUUSD view for 2026? Share your analyses or charts below! ❓ #XAUUSD #GoldValuation #ValuationModels #CommodityAnalysis #TradingEducation #FundamentalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #InvestingInsights
TVC:GOLDEducation
by DCAChampion
XAUUSD Buyers Defend Demand Zone | Upside Move Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading near a well-defined demand zone after completing a corrective move. Price previously respected a descending channel, followed by a healthy rebound and consolidation. The current structure shows buyers stepping in again near intraday support, suggesting accumulation at lower levels. As long as price holds above the highlighted support zone, the short-term bias remains bullish. A reaction from this area could lead to a higher low formation and a continuation toward the upper resistance zone. However, a clean break below support would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door for further downside. 📌 Key Focus: – Intraday support reaction – Higher low confirmation – Momentum follow-through ⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by XAU_CAPITAL
1
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead Gold is quickly recovering after a recent correction. The market is currently approaching a major daily resistance. Its breakout and a daily candle close above will push the price to the levels of the current all-time high. Alternatively, the price may retrace from that. As always, I recommend being on the side of the trend and trade only in case of a bullish breakout. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
7
A gold rebound requires more caution.Since bottoming out around 4400, the current gold rebound has reached nearly $700. From both a technical and market sentiment perspective, significant profit-taking pressure has accumulated. Blindly chasing the rally at this stage carries a relatively high risk. The current 5090-5110 range forms a clear parallel channel resistance zone, with significant technical suppression. Furthermore, with the ADP employment data release approaching, the market tends to be cautious before key data releases, and some long positions may choose to exit early to avoid uncertainty. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to try shorting gold with a small position around this resistance zone, paying attention to potential profit-taking pullbacks before and after the data release.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBear-GoldDesk
XAUUSD H1 – Corrective Pullback Within Broader Bullish StructureGold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe remains within a broader bullish structure, but price is currently undergoing a corrective phase. After reaching a major swing high, the market faced strong rejection from the descending red trendline, triggering a sharp pullback. The recent decline respected the Fibonacci retracement zone, with price reacting strongly between the 0.618–0.786 levels, indicating active demand from buyers. This zone aligns with prior structure support, reinforcing its technical significance. The recovery from the lows shows higher lows, suggesting short-term bullish intent, though momentum is slowing near resistance. Price is now trading below the descending trendline and near the upper Fibonacci retracement area, where sellers are showing interest. A clear break and hold above the trendline would open the door for a continuation toward the previous highs. Conversely, rejection from this area could lead to another retest of the mid or lower Fibonacci support levels. The Aroon Oscillator is turning negative, signaling weakening bullish momentum and increasing risk of consolidation or a short-term pullback before the next directional move. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Descending trendline / recent swing high zone Support: 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement area Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish while above key support This setup favors patience—waiting for either a confirmed breakout above resistance or a bullish reaction from support for higher-probability entries.
FX:XAUUSD
by Gems-Trades
GOLD 05/02 – SMC H2 MAP | FILL LIQUIDITY 47XX NOW!Gold had a strong drop to the Fib 0.382 area and then quickly rebounded. Gold prices are reacting at the Fib 0.5 H2 + FVG confluence area. The next direction will depend on whether the price is accepted or rejected at these key areas. BRIEF CONTEXT The market remains sensitive to USD and interest rate expectations, so intraday liquidity sweeps occur frequently. Macroeconomic instability helps gold avoid a direct collapse, but it's not strong enough to reverse the short-term structure. ➡️ This explains why there are quick drops – quick rebounds – but the range remains locked. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE H2 The larger structure is still bearish after CHoCH from the peak. The current upward movement is considered a pullback in the downtrend. Fib 0.5 H2 is acting as a balance area, not a trend confirmation area. ROUTE MAP – PRICE AREAS TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER AREA 👉 5000 – 5050 Fib 0.5 → 0.618 H2 FVG H2 Technical retracement area in the downtrend structure ➡️ If the price retraces here but is not accepted, the upward movement is just a retracement to continue the decline. 👉 5200 – 5250 Fib 0.786 H2 FVG above Only if the price breaks and holds above this area will the intraday downtrend structure be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER AREA 👉 4920 – 4950 Fib 0.5 H2 + FVG Balance area, prone to two-way tug-of-war 👉 4800 – 4820 Fib 0.382 H2 Area where the drop and rebound just occurred 👉 4650 – 4700 FVG + demand H2 Next support area if bearish returns 👉 4550 – 4600 Liquidity low Only activated when the downward momentum expands strongly HOW WE READ & TRADE ON 05/02 Scalp: according to price reaction at 0.382 – 0.5 – FVG H2, especially during the European session. Do not FOMO with the rebound – strong reaction does not mean reversal. Swing: only follow structure acceptance, do not predict emotions. Let the market speak the truth when it hits important areas. LucasGrayTrading will continue to update when the price gives clearer signals during the day. — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
4
Gold Shows Short-Term Recovery Signs After a Sharp Decline📊 Market Overview: Gold prices are surging today as safe-haven demand increases amid rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Ongoing conflict concerns continue to boost demand for safe assets, pushing gold prices up more than 2% during the session and lifting spot gold above ~5,070 USD/oz. Fundamental forecasts also support a bullish outlook if rate-cut expectations persist and economic data comes in weaker than expected. ________________________________________ 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance Levels: 1. ~ 5,100–5,120 USD/oz – strong psychological resistance and current session high zone. 2. ~ 5,250–5,300 USD/oz – extended target area if price breaks above current highs. • Nearest Support Levels: 1. ~ 4,900–4,950 USD/oz – short-term support in case of a pullback. 2. ~ 4,800–4,850 USD/oz – momentum support if a deeper correction occurs. • EMA / Trend: EMA 09: If price remains above EMA 09, it confirms a short-term bullish trend. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Strong bullish candles with wide ranges reflect aggressive buying driven by geopolitical risk. Short-term momentum shows buying pressure dominating selling, with volume supporting the breakout above key psychological levels. ________________________________________ 📌 Outlook: Gold may continue to rise in the short term if: • Geopolitical tensions persist • The U.S. dollar weakens further • Markets continue to price in additional Fed rate cuts However, unexpectedly strong economic data or a more hawkish Fed stance could trigger a short-term correction before the main trend resumes. ________________________________________ 💡 Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 5,117 – 5,120 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 5,127 🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4,950 – 4,947 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 4,940
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
2
Gold Volatility Rises as NFP Delayed by US Shutdown | Feb 6 2026OANDA:XAUUSD Gold Volatility Rises as NFP Delayed by US Shutdown | Feb 6 2026 📌 Market Update: NFP Delayed (Feb 6, 2026) The January 2026 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has been delayed due to a partial U.S. government shutdown, removing a major macro catalyst from today’s session. The absence of fresh labor data has increased uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy expectations, contributing to heightened volatility across currencies, equities, and precious metals. Gold remains especially sensitive in this environment, as traders reassess inflation, interest rate trajectories, and systemic risk without confirmation from employment data. Gold Performance – February 5, 2026 (Yesterday) Gold extended its sharp correction as a stronger U.S. dollar and broad risk rebalancing triggered heavy liquidation. A rising USD pressured gold prices by making the metal more expensive for non-dollar buyers, reducing global demand. Spot gold closed 1.8% lower at $4,872.83/oz, after falling to an intraday low near $4,791.69/oz. April gold futures also weakened, settling 1.2% lower at $4,889.50/oz, opening the session with a gap down from the prior close. Analysts noted intraday declines of nearly 4%, largely driven by margin calls, profit-taking after the historic multi-month rally, and the unwinding of leveraged long positions. Despite the aggressive sell-off, long-term sentiment among institutional buyers remained constructive. Gold Performance – February 6, 2026 (Today) Gold rebounded modestly in early trade amid dip-buying and continued global equity weakness. As of early GMT hours, spot gold recovered to around $4,860–4,880/oz, gaining roughly 2% from yesterday’s lows. Trading remains choppy, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and reduced liquidity. CME Group has raised margin requirements on gold and silver futures for the third time this year, signaling concern over extreme volatility and speculative excess. Broader Outlook and Key Drivers Major banks remain divided on gold’s trajectory. JP Morgan continues to project upside potential toward $6,300/oz by year-end, citing sustained central-bank accumulation, geopolitical risks, and growing concerns around fiscal dominance. In contrast, consensus forecasts remain more conservative, highlighting the wide divergence in market expectations. In India, domestic gold prices also softened, with 24-carat gold trading near ₹15,235 per gram, reflecting global price pressure and currency effects. Conclusion Gold remains structurally bullish on a long-term basis, but short-term price action is dominated by volatility, forced liquidations, and macro uncertainty. With NFP delayed and markets lacking a key directional catalyst, traders should expect continued sharp swings until clarity emerges on U.S. fiscal stability, Fed policy direction, and risk sentiment. Patience and risk management are critical in this environment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
GOLD 06/02 – SMC H2 MAP: BREAK STRUCTURE TO FLYGold prices have filled the FVG in the 46xx region and rebounded, a correct technical reaction at the low demand area. However, this recovery is still tightly constrained by the FVG and Fibonacci regions above, with no acceptance of an upward structure. The rising US-Iran tensions raise the question: is this rebound strong enough to break the structure or just a short-term reflex? MACRO CONTEXT Global cash flow is currently returning to USD, amid positive US data and policy expectations still leaning towards tightening. The tension between the US and Iran increases geopolitical risks, but not enough to trigger a strong safe-haven flow into gold. The reality shows: cash flow is withdrawing from safe-haven channels, instead of turning to gold as in previous crisis periods. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE H2 The previous uptrend has: swept the peak, a CHoCH decline appeared, confirming a bearish BOS ➡️ The current upward move is seen as a pullback in the downtrend, not a reversal. ROUTE MAP – PRICE AREAS TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER AREA – SELL REACTION ZONE (PRIORITY) 👉 4950 – 5000 Fib 0.5 → 0.618 H2 FVG H2 The main technical recovery area in the downtrend structure ➡️ If the price recovers here but is not accepted, the bearish scenario continues to be reinforced. 👉 5100 – 5150 Fib 0.786 H2 FVG above Only when the price breaks and holds above this area, the H2 bearish bias will be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER AREA – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 👉 4820 – 4850 Fib 0.382 H2 Current FVG Short-term technical reflex area 👉 4650 – 4700 Demand + FVG H2 Next target if the downtrend returns 👉 4550 – 4600 Liquidity low Only triggered if bearish expands more strongly HOW LUCAS MONITORS THE MARKET TODAY Do not trade emotionally in the middle area. Scalp only according to clear reactions at FVG & fib. Swing only according to H2 structure acceptance, not prediction. Beautiful price areas only for reactions. New structure determines direction. Today's bias: SELL RECOVERY – BUY only short reflex (scalp). — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
3
Bearish Pullback From Key Resistance, Targets BelowOverall structure Gold is in a short-term bearish correction after a strong impulsive sell-off. The left side of the chart shows a distribution → breakdown → liquidity sweep, followed by a corrective bounce that is now losing steam. Key zones & story the chart tells Major Resistance Zone (≈ 5,105 – 5,213) This blue zone previously acted as support, then flipped to resistance. Price has revisited it and failed to reclaim, confirming a classic support → resistance flip. Entry Area (around 5,100) The pullback into resistance aligns with: Lower-high structure Bearish reaction after a corrective rally Rejection near prior consolidation This is the logical short entry zone, as marked. Fair Value Gap (FVG) The rally partially filled the FVG but failed to continue higher — another sign of weak bullish intent. Notice the white projected path: price is respecting a corrective wave rather than impulsive buying. Targets 1st Target: ~4,750 Prior reaction level and mid-range liquidity. Likely pause or partial take-profit zone. 2nd Target / Support: ~4,586 Strong demand zone and previous base. This is the main downside objective if bearish momentum continues. Bias summary Bias: Bearish below 5,105 Invalidation: Clean break and hold above 5,213 Market logic: Distribution → breakdown → pullback into resistance → continuation lower Big picture takeaway This is a textbook pullback-short setup after a strong bearish impulse. As long as gold remains capped below the resistance band, the path of least resistance points down toward 4,750 and potentially 4,586.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by FXCLASSICAL
Fibonacci Resistance Caps the Recovery | Consolidation PhaseChart Analysis Market Structure After a sharp sell-off, Gold staged a technical rebound but is now trading in a sideways to corrective phase below a key Fibonacci resistance zone. The structure suggests a corrective pullback within a broader bearish swing, rather than the start of a new uptrend. Technical Confluence Fibonacci Retracement: The 0.236 – 0.382 zone is acting as resistance and limiting further upside. ALMA (9): Price is hovering around the moving average, indicating weak momentum and indecision. Auto Fib Extension: The 1.618 extension remains a potential downside target if selling pressure resumes. Aroon (14): Weak Aroon Up and relatively stronger Aroon Down point to fading bullish strength. Price Action Repeated upper wicks and small-bodied candles near resistance signal supply pressure. Buyers have so far failed to achieve a clean breakout above the resistance area. Trade Idea Bias: Neutral to Bearish Sell Zone: Rejection from the Fibonacci resistance zone Targets: First target: Recent swing low Extended targets: 0.786 retracement / 1.618 extension Invalidation: A clear and sustained close above the 0.382 Fibonacci level Conclusion As long as XAUUSD remains below the Fibonacci resistance and momentum stays weak, the current price action is best viewed as consolidation ahead of a potential downside continuation. Always manage risk and wait for confirmation.
FX:XAUUSD
by Gems-Trades
BTCUSD (1H) – Bearish Continuation | Trendline Breakdown IdeaMarket Structure Bitcoin remains in a clear descending channel on the 1H timeframe. Price has consistently respected the downward sloping trendline, confirming a strong bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows. Technical Confluence Trendline Resistance (Red): Multiple rejections validate seller dominance. Auto Pitchfork: Price is trading below the median line, indicating continuation toward the lower parallel. Dynamic Support (Green): The recent breakdown below channel support signals bearish continuation rather than a reversal. Balance of Power (BoP): Reading around -0.38 reflects sustained selling pressure with no bullish divergence. Price Action A brief consolidation failed to hold, followed by a strong bearish impulse that broke key intraday support. The current move suggests momentum-driven continuation, not exhaustion. Trade Idea Bias: Bearish Sell Zone: Pullback toward broken support / descending trendline Targets: First target: Previous minor low Extended target: Lower pitchfork boundary / demand zone Invalidation: Sustained close above the descending trendline Conclusion As long as BTC remains below the descending trendline and pitchfork median, the path of least resistance is downward. Any retracement into resistance is likely to be a selling opportunity unless market structure shifts. Always manage risk and wait for confirmation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gems-Trades
Bearish Rejection From Supply, Targets Below Market Structure Price previously made a blow-off top (sharp impulsive high, marked by the red arrow), followed by a strong bearish reversal, breaking short-term structure. The subsequent bounce formed a lower high, confirming a bearish market structure shift on the intraday timeframe. Key Zones Gray zone (≈ 4,880–4,950): Former demand → now supply / resistance. Price retested this area and rejected, which is classic bearish continuation behavior. Blue zone (≈ 4,520–4,600): Major support / demand zone from the prior swing low. Trade Idea Logic (as drawn) Entry: Short on rejection from the gray supply zone after weak bullish retracement. 1st Target: Around 4,714 — interim support / liquidity pool. 2nd Target: The blue support zone — completion of the bearish leg and likely reaction area. Price Action Clues Retracement into resistance was corrective (overlapping candles), not impulsive → favors sellers. Failure to reclaim the gray zone = sellers still in control. Momentum points downward, aligning with the projected path. Invalidation A clean 45-min close and hold above the gray supply zone would weaken the bearish bias and suggest deeper consolidation or reversal. Summary
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by fxjack_22
1
GOLD 04/02 – SMC H4 ROUTE MAP | 5000 BALANCE STATE BROKEN👉 Fibo 0.5 has been broken → the market is no longer in a balanced upward state. What is happening now is a pullback in a bearish structure, not a reversal. Today, the focus is not on “buying or selling,” but on how the price reacts when it touches the old FVG and supply zones. MACRO CONTEXT IN BRIEF The market is still sensitive to Fed expectations and USD data → high intraday volatility. Geopolitics keeps gold from collapsing directly, but not enough to pull a new trend. ➡️ Result: gold rebounds quickly, but there is no trend commitment yet. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE H4 Previous H4 uptrend: ✅ has swept the peak ✅ a bearish CHoCH has appeared Fibo 0.5 (≈ 5000) has been broken → the upward structure is invalidated. Current price is: rebounding to H4 FVGs in the context of a still valid bearish structure TODAY'S ROUTE MAP – KEY PRICE ZONES 🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION ZONE (PRIORITY TO OBSERVE) 👉 5200 – 5250 H4 FVG Fib 0.618 – 0.705 The “textbook” rebound zone in a bearish structure ➡️ If the price rebounds here but is not accepted, it is a clear signal of a continuation to decrease. 👉 5350 – 5450 High FVG + Fib 0.786 Only if the price breaks and holds above this zone, the H4 bearish bias will be negated. 🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 👉 5000 – 5020 (has been broken, now a sensitive zone) Old Fibo 0.5 Price may react, but it is no longer a safe buying zone for swing. 👉 4850 – 4900 FVG + Fib 0.382 Important support zone for the next decrease. 👉 4600 – 4550 Liquidity low Only activated if bearish continues strongly and decisively. HOW WE READ & TRADE TODAY With the current structure: Scalp: follow price reactions at FVG & fib (especially during the European – American session). Swing: only follow the acceptance of the H4 structure, not emotional bottom fishing. Remember: 👉 The strongest rebounds often appear in a bearish market. But only the structure decides who goes far, who gets eliminated. LucasGrayTrading will continue to update as the price reacts at decisive zones. Follow to not miss quality intraday reactions. — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
XAUUSD – Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone (H1)Gold (XAUUSD) previously traded within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish structure. After reaching the upper boundary, price experienced a sharp bearish correction, breaking down from the channel and forming a capitulation-style move to the downside. Following this decline, price found strong support at a key demand zone around the 5,000 area, where buyers stepped in aggressively. The reaction from this zone formed a rounded bottom / V-shaped recovery, indicating a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Price has now reclaimed the demand zone and is showing continuation strength to the upside. As long as price holds above this zone, bullish continuation remains the higher-probability scenario. Trade Bias: Bullish above demand zone Entry Zone: Demand zone retest / bullish continuation above 5,000 Targets: Target 1: 5,120 Target 2: 5,198 Invalidation: A sustained break and close below the demand zone would invalidate the bullish setup. This setup aligns with demand–supply theory, trend continuation, and momentum shift, favoring buyers in the near term.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Gems-Trades
3