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GOLD H1 – CHOCH CONFIRMED, FVG HOLD COULD FUEL NEXT LEG UPMarket Context (Macro → Flow) Gold remains highly sensitive to USD strength, yield volatility, and Fed expectations. With markets still repricing the pace of future rate cuts, capital continues to rotate defensively rather than trend cleanly. This keeps gold in a reaction-based environment, where liquidity zones matter more than momentum. Technical Structure (H1) Clear CHOCH confirmed after the corrective leg Price is pulling back within the ascending channel, not a trend breakdown Current move is a technical retracement into imbalance (FVG) Bias stays constructive as long as demand is respected. Key Zones (H1) Primary BUY Zone (FVG): 4,760 – 4,689 Invalidation / Breakdown Level: H1 close below 4,689 Channel Support (soft): ~4,780 Upside Targets (If Reaction Confirms) TP1: 4,950 (prior structure high) TP2: 5,080 – 5,120 (channel mid / liquidity pocket) TP3: 5,212 (major H1 resistance & extension) Scenarios (If–Then) Bullish Continuation: If price holds the FVG and forms a higher low on H1 → continuation toward 5,12x–5,21x Bearish Extension: If H1 closes below 4,689 → structure weakens, deeper pullback likely Trading Mindset This is not a chase market. Let price come into the zone → wait for confirmation → manage risk. 🧠 In volatile macro conditions, discipline at key levels beats prediction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
5
XAUUSD – High Volatility Phase, Watch Key Reaction Zones📌 Market Context Gold is currently trading in a high-volatility environment after a sharp drop below the 5,000$ level, reflecting aggressive repricing ahead of major macro uncertainty. The market has shifted away from smooth trend behavior into a liquidity-driven, fast-reaction phase, where price moves sharply between key technical zones. With ongoing changes in Fed leadership and uncertainty around future monetary policy direction, gold remains extremely sensitive to expectations, flows, and headlines. ➡️ Current state: Volatile conditions – wait for confirmation, avoid emotional trades. 📊 Structure & Price Action (M30) The prior bearish impulse is losing momentum, with short-term higher lows starting to form. Price is currently in a technical recovery phase, not a confirmed trend reversal yet. Market continues to respect Demand and Key Levels, producing sharp reactions. No confirmed bullish CHoCH at this stage — further validation is required. 🔎 Key insight: Gold is trading inside a decision zone, where each key level can trigger strong directional moves. 🎯 Trading Plan – MMF Style 🔵 Primary Scenario – Buy the Technical Pullback Focus on reaction-based execution, not anticipation. BUY Zone 1: 4,667 – 4,650 (Near-term demand + first recovery base) BUY Zone 2: 4,496 – 4,480 (Deep demand + prior liquidity sweep low) ➡️ Execute BUYs only if: Clear bullish candle reaction appears Or a Higher Low structure forms on M30 Upside Targets: TP1: 4,932 TP2: 5,124 (Major recovery resistance / supply zone) 🔴 Alternative Scenario – Sell at Resistance Reaction If price retraces into supply and fails to hold bullish momentum: SELL Zone: 5,120 – 5,140 → Look for short-term rejection following M30 structure ❌ Invalidation A confirmed M30 close below 4,480 invalidates the recovery structure and requires a full reassessment. 🧠 Summary Gold is in a high-volatility, structure-building phase, not an environment for emotional or aggressive positioning. The edge lies in: Trading key levels, not impulses Waiting for price confirmation Prioritizing risk management over prediction 📌 In volatile markets, discipline outperforms frequency.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
17
XAUUSD – Volatility Expansion, Trade Key Zones With Discipline Market Context Gold is trading in a high-volatility recovery phase after a sharp sell-off, with price now rotating aggressively between key technical zones. This behavior reflects liquidity rebalancing under macro uncertainty, rather than a clean trend. Ongoing uncertainty around Fed leadership changes, future monetary policy direction, and headline risk keeps gold highly sensitive to flows. In this environment, reaction at levels matters more than direction. ➡️ Market state: fast moves, deep pullbacks, strong reactions – avoid emotional entries. Structure & Price Action (H1) Price is holding inside a rising corrective channel, indicating a recovery structure. Higher lows are forming, but bullish structure is still conditional, not fully confirmed. Upper zones show hesitation and rejection, while lower zones attract strong demand. Expect sharp swings and fake breaks during this phase. Key insight: This is a reaction-driven market. Trade the zones, not the noise. 🎯 Trading Plan – MMF Style 🔵 Primary Scenario – Buy the Pullback (Reaction-Based) BUY Zone 1: 5,008 – 4,990 • Short-term demand • 0.618 Fib retracement • Channel support BUY Zone 2: 4,670 – 4,650 • Major demand • Prior liquidity sweep area • Strong structural base ➡️ Only consider BUYs after: Clear bullish rejection candles Or a Higher Low confirmed on H1 🔴 Alternative Scenario – Sell at Upper Reaction Zones SELL Zone 1: 5,250 – 5,275 • Prior resistance • Mid-channel reaction zone SELL Zone 2: 5,560 – 5,575 • Major extension / supply zone • Fibonacci expansion resistance ➡️ Look for: Rejection wicks Loss of bullish momentum on H1 🎯 Targets (TP Zones) Upside Targets (from BUY setups): TP1: 5,253 TP2: 5,573 Downside Targets (if SELL scenario plays out): TP1: 5,008 TP2: 4,670 ❌ Invalidation A confirmed H1 close below 4,650 invalidates the recovery structure Requires a full reassessment of bias
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
9
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our 4h chart route map and trading plan for the week ahead. We are now seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4925 and a gap below at 4844. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 4925 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4925 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5065 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5065 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5124 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5124 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5375 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 5375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 5482 BEARISH TARGET 4844 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4844 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4741 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4741 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 4592 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4592 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 4435 4297 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
12
GOLD JUST FLIPPED STRUCTURE GOLD JUST FLIPPED STRUCTURE — IS THIS THE REAL REVERSAL OR A LIQUIDITY TRAP? Gold has just delivered a clear structural shift after weeks of heavy downside pressure — but this is not the time to chase. Market Structure (M30) Price printed a bullish CHoCH, ending the prior bearish sequence Followed by a BOS to the upside, confirming short-term bullish control Momentum is strong, but price is now approaching a key reaction zone Key Zones to Watch FVG Support: ~4,950 – 4,980 → Ideal area for pullback continuation if bullish structure holds Mid Resistance / Reaction: ~5,100 – 5,150 → Expect volatility and possible shakeout Upper Target Zone: 5,270 – 5,450 → Fibonacci 0.5 → 0.786 retracement of the prior sell-off Trading Scenarios Bullish continuation: Wait for pullback into FVG + higher low → continuation toward 5,27x → 5,45x Failure scenario: Loss of FVG + M30 close back below ~4,95x → bullish structure invalid, range or reversal risk 🧠 Trading Mind This is a reaction market, not a prediction market. After a structure flip, pullbacks pay — breakouts trap.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
9
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Decision Ahead Gold is quickly recovering after a recent correction. The market is currently approaching a major daily resistance. Its breakout and a daily candle close above will push the price to the levels of the current all-time high. Alternatively, the price may retrace from that. As always, I recommend being on the side of the trend and trade only in case of a bullish breakout. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
4
XAUUSD – High Volatility Compression, Trade the Break or Reactio📌 Market Context Gold remains in a high-volatility environment, transitioning from a strong impulsive move into a compression / corrective channel on H1. This price behavior reflects aggressive two-way flows as the market digests macro uncertainty (Fed policy outlook, USD sensitivity, headline risk). At this stage, Gold is not trending smoothly — it is rotating between key zones, making reaction-based trading essential. ➡️ Current state: Volatile & technical – patience > prediction. 📊 Structure & Price Action (H1) Price is trading inside a descending corrective channel after the prior bullish impulse. Recent downside momentum is slowing, with buyers stepping in at lower channel support. No confirmed bullish CHoCH yet, but sell pressure is weakening. Market is approaching a decision zone where breakout or continuation will be decided. 🔎 Key insight: This is a compression phase — expect an expansion once price decisively reacts at key levels. 🎯 Trading Plan – MMF Style 🔵 Primary Scenario – Buy the Reaction From Demand Focus on confirmation, not anticipation. BUY Zone 1: 4,765 – 4,750 Lower channel support Short-term demand + corrective low BUY Zone 2: 4,866 – 4,850 Mid-range demand Reaction zone if higher low forms ➡️ Execute BUYs only if: Clear bullish rejection candle appears Or H1 forms a Higher Low / break of internal structure Upside Targets: TP1: 4,920 TP2: 5,030 TP3: 5,185 (major resistance / upper range) 🔴 Alternative Scenario – Sell at Resistance Reaction If price rallies into supply but fails to hold momentum: SELL Zone: 5,180 – 5,200 Key resistance Fibonacci retracement + prior rejection area Downside Targets: TP1: 4,920 TP2: 4,866 TP3: 4,765 ❌ Invalidation A confirmed H1 close below 4,750 invalidates the recovery scenario and opens risk for deeper continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
4
XAUUSD – Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone (H1)Gold (XAUUSD) previously traded within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish structure. After reaching the upper boundary, price experienced a sharp bearish correction, breaking down from the channel and forming a capitulation-style move to the downside. Following this decline, price found strong support at a key demand zone around the 5,000 area, where buyers stepped in aggressively. The reaction from this zone formed a rounded bottom / V-shaped recovery, indicating a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Price has now reclaimed the demand zone and is showing continuation strength to the upside. As long as price holds above this zone, bullish continuation remains the higher-probability scenario. Trade Bias: Bullish above demand zone Entry Zone: Demand zone retest / bullish continuation above 5,000 Targets: Target 1: 5,120 Target 2: 5,198 Invalidation: A sustained break and close below the demand zone would invalidate the bullish setup. This setup aligns with demand–supply theory, trend continuation, and momentum shift, favoring buyers in the near term.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Gems-Trades
3
A gold rebound requires more caution.Since bottoming out around 4400, the current gold rebound has reached nearly $700. From both a technical and market sentiment perspective, significant profit-taking pressure has accumulated. Blindly chasing the rally at this stage carries a relatively high risk. The current 5090-5110 range forms a clear parallel channel resistance zone, with significant technical suppression. Furthermore, with the ADP employment data release approaching, the market tends to be cautious before key data releases, and some long positions may choose to exit early to avoid uncertainty. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to try shorting gold with a small position around this resistance zone, paying attention to potential profit-taking pullbacks before and after the data release.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBear-GoldDesk
Top 3 Forex Gold Setups I Will Be Trading in 2026 Among the different strategies and signals that I relied on in 2025, there were 3 exceptional setups that showed the highest accuracy and profitability. In this article, I will explain the structure and price model of these setups and equip you with the best entry signals for trading in 2026. Discover what worked best in Forex and Gold trading in 2025. The first powerful setup that showed great results last year is based on an old-school price action chart pattern - double top & bottom . But don't trade each double top & bottom that you spot. To achieve the highest win rate, these patterns should form on specific time frames and on specific price levels. Please, study a bullish model: The price should test a key daily support level. After that, a double bottom pattern should form on 1H time frame. Your signal to buy will be a breakout and an hourly candle close above its neckline. Set your buy limit order on a retest of that, stop loss will lie below the bottoms, take profit will be the closest intraday resistance. Here is an example: Now, examine a bearish model. The price should test a key daily resistance level. After that, a double top pattern should form on 1H time frame. Your signal to sell will be a breakout and an hourly candle close below its neckline. Set your sell limit order on a retest of that, stop loss will lie above the bottoms, take profit will be the closest intraday support. Here is an example on NZDUSD forex pair: Meeting all the required criteria, this setup achieved 76% accuracy in 2025. The second setup that had a high win rate last year is from Smart Money Concepts trading. It is based on a combination of liquidity zones, traps, and imbalances. Please, examine a bullish model of that setup. We need a t est of a daily liquidity demand zone and a bearish trap below that. After a trap, a bullish imbalance should occur on an hourly time frame. I suggest looking for a bullish engulfing candle and return of the price within or even above a liquidity zone with a close of that candle. Buy the market immediately after a candle close. Set your stop loss below the low of the trap. Your take profit will be the closest intraday supply zone. Please, study an example on EURAUD: Now, study a bearish model. We need a test of a daily liquidity supply zone and a bullish trap above that. After a trap, a bearish imbalance should occur on an hourly time frame. I recommend looking for a b earish engulfing candle and return of the price within or even below a liquidity zone with a close of that candle. Sell the market immediately after a candle close. Set your stop loss above the high of the trap. Your take profit will be the closest intraday demand zone. Please, check the example: Meeting all the conditions, this setup showed 79% accuracy. The last setup worked phenomenally well in Gold trading last year. Because of a crazy bullish rally that the market started straight from the beginning of 2025, this simple pattern provided huge gains. I am talking about a bullish flag pattern. Please, note that the first 2 setups were bullish and bearish. In a current case, we are considering only a bullish flag. Make sure that the market is bullish . After an update of a new high and a formation of a new higher high higher close, expect a correctional movement on a 4H time frame. The price should start falling , forming an expanding, parallel or contracting channel - a bullish flag. Your strong signal to buy will be a bullish breakout and a 4H candle close above a resistance of the flag and the last lower high within that. Set your buy limit order on a retest of the broken level of the last LH, Set stop loss below the lows of the flag, Your take profit will be the closest psychological level above a current high. Alternatively, you can trade this model without take profit and apply trailing stop loss. That's the example of this price model: This pattern achieved 69% accuracy. But because of a strong bullish momentum, each profitable signal produced enormous gains. If Gold continues rallying next year, and I think it definitely will, keep an eye on bullish flags as your signal to buy. Using these 3 setups, you can successfully trade Forex and Gold in 2026. Integrate them in your trading strategy, learn to recognize them and follow the rules that I provided. Let these setups bring you huge gains this year. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
GOLD 05/02 – SMC H2 MAP | FILL LIQUIDITY 47XX NOW!Gold had a strong drop to the Fib 0.382 area and then quickly rebounded. Gold prices are reacting at the Fib 0.5 H2 + FVG confluence area. The next direction will depend on whether the price is accepted or rejected at these key areas. BRIEF CONTEXT The market remains sensitive to USD and interest rate expectations, so intraday liquidity sweeps occur frequently. Macroeconomic instability helps gold avoid a direct collapse, but it's not strong enough to reverse the short-term structure. ➡️ This explains why there are quick drops – quick rebounds – but the range remains locked. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE H2 The larger structure is still bearish after CHoCH from the peak. The current upward movement is considered a pullback in the downtrend. Fib 0.5 H2 is acting as a balance area, not a trend confirmation area. ROUTE MAP – PRICE AREAS TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER AREA 👉 5000 – 5050 Fib 0.5 → 0.618 H2 FVG H2 Technical retracement area in the downtrend structure ➡️ If the price retraces here but is not accepted, the upward movement is just a retracement to continue the decline. 👉 5200 – 5250 Fib 0.786 H2 FVG above Only if the price breaks and holds above this area will the intraday downtrend structure be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER AREA 👉 4920 – 4950 Fib 0.5 H2 + FVG Balance area, prone to two-way tug-of-war 👉 4800 – 4820 Fib 0.382 H2 Area where the drop and rebound just occurred 👉 4650 – 4700 FVG + demand H2 Next support area if bearish returns 👉 4550 – 4600 Liquidity low Only activated when the downward momentum expands strongly HOW WE READ & TRADE ON 05/02 Scalp: according to price reaction at 0.382 – 0.5 – FVG H2, especially during the European session. Do not FOMO with the rebound – strong reaction does not mean reversal. Swing: only follow structure acceptance, do not predict emotions. Let the market speak the truth when it hits important areas. LucasGrayTrading will continue to update when the price gives clearer signals during the day. — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
1
Mastering Gold Valuation Models: Unlock XAUUSD's True Worth!Title: 📚 Mastering Gold Valuation Models: Unlock XAUUSD's True Worth for 2026 Traders! 🚀 Hello TradingView community! 👋 Today, let's dive into XAUUSD with a detailed educational post focusing on gold valuation models, fundamentals, and insights. 📊 This isn't financial advice just an in-depth look based on public data to help you understand how to value this timeless asset. Current Snapshot: Price: $4,940.73 💵 52-Week High/Low: $5,595.46 / $2,832.63 📈📉 Market Cap: N/A (spot commodity) Fundamental Analysis (e.g., Valuation Models Explained): Gold is a unique asset without cash flows, dividends, or earnings, so traditional DCF isn't directly applicable. Instead, models treat it as a store of value, inflation hedge, or financial asset influenced by macros. Here's a structured breakdown of key gold valuation models to empower your analysis: - Interest Rate and Yield-Based Models 📉 : These view gold as a "zero-yield bond" where price inversely correlates with real interest rates (nominal minus inflation). For example, gold has an effective "real duration" of about 18 years a 1% rise in real yields (e.g., 10-year TIPS) historically drops inflation-adjusted gold prices by 18%. Simple formula: Fair Value ≈ Initial Value / (1 + Real Rate)^Time Horizon, adjusted for inflation expectations. In low/negative rate environments, this signals undervaluation (e.g., below $5,000 amid uncertainty). - Supply and Demand Equilibrium Models ⚖️ : Frameworks like the World Gold Council's Qaurum balance supply (mining ~3,000 tons/year, recycling) with demand (jewelry ~45%, investment ~25%, central banks ~20%). Recent central bank purchases (>1,000 tons annually) can project fair value ranges like $5,400 to $6,300 under 10% growth assumptions. Production cost models provide floors (~$1,200 to $1,500/oz), but ignore speculative flows great for macro scenario testing. - Relative Valuation Models 🔄: Compare gold to benchmarks for over/undervaluation. Ratios include S&P 500/Gold (e.g., ~1.36 ounces per S&P unit vs. historical averages signaling cheap gold) or gold's above-ground stock as ~50% of U.S. market cap (deviations from 20 to 50% norms indicate mispricing). Real yield correlation (~-0.7) highlights undervaluation in low-rate, high-uncertainty periods. - Long-Term Expected Return Models 📈: Estimate 2 to 4% real returns based on gold's dual role as a good and asset, tied to global GDP growth minus portfolio expansion. Over decades (e.g., 1992 to 2025), gold averaged ~7 to 8% annually vs. S&P's ~11%. Formula: Expected Return ≈ β1 × GDP Growth - β2 × Global Portfolio Growth. Useful for portfolio allocation. Key insights: Combine models for robustness e.g., yield-based for timing, supply-demand for fundamentals. Banks like Goldman forecast $5,400+ by year-end amid geopolitics. 📈 SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats): Strengths: 💪 Proven safe-haven with central bank demand (>1,000 tons/2025), low equity correlation (~0.4 beta to S&P). Weaknesses: ⚠️ No yield, high volatility (e.g., recent 10% drops), USD/rate sensitivity. Opportunities: 🌟 Geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran), potential Fed cuts, green tech industrial demand. Threats: 🛑 Hawkish policy shifts, conflict de-escalation, "digital gold" competition like Bitcoin. Technical and Risk Insights: Use non-repainting indicators like 200-day SMA (~$4,200 to $5,000 range for support/resistance). Current RSI (~35 to 40) often signals oversold 🚨. Risks: Interest rate exposure, macro attribution (~60% returns from trends vs. supply). Consider time-series like ARIMA for forecasts. 📉 Historical Context and Examples: Gold has delivered 7 to 8% annualized over 10+ years, with examples like 2022's recovery from $1,600 low to $2,000+ on inflation fears. Yield models predicted 2025 surges to $5,000+ amid low rates, showing how these frameworks inform real-market decisions. 📜 What do you think: Which gold valuation model resonates most with your XAUUSD view for 2026? Share your analyses or charts below! ❓ #XAUUSD #GoldValuation #ValuationModels #CommodityAnalysis #TradingEducation #FundamentalAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #InvestingInsights
TVC:GOLDEducation
by DCAChampion
XAUUSD H1 – Corrective Pullback Within Broader Bullish StructureGold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe remains within a broader bullish structure, but price is currently undergoing a corrective phase. After reaching a major swing high, the market faced strong rejection from the descending red trendline, triggering a sharp pullback. The recent decline respected the Fibonacci retracement zone, with price reacting strongly between the 0.618–0.786 levels, indicating active demand from buyers. This zone aligns with prior structure support, reinforcing its technical significance. The recovery from the lows shows higher lows, suggesting short-term bullish intent, though momentum is slowing near resistance. Price is now trading below the descending trendline and near the upper Fibonacci retracement area, where sellers are showing interest. A clear break and hold above the trendline would open the door for a continuation toward the previous highs. Conversely, rejection from this area could lead to another retest of the mid or lower Fibonacci support levels. The Aroon Oscillator is turning negative, signaling weakening bullish momentum and increasing risk of consolidation or a short-term pullback before the next directional move. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Descending trendline / recent swing high zone Support: 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement area Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish while above key support This setup favors patience—waiting for either a confirmed breakout above resistance or a bullish reaction from support for higher-probability entries.
FX:XAUUSD
by Gems-Trades
Continue to adjust and identify entry points for long positions.Gold has been fluctuating by $200-300 daily recently, which is no longer unusual. Our focus should be on managing and minimizing risk. We're watching the resistance level around 5000-5020. Gold is likely to continue its consolidation before choosing a direction. On the downside, we're watching the support level around 4820-4800. Technically, we continue to focus on buying on dips that hold. Recent international developments, including the US-Iran negotiations, will be key drivers of gold's price movements. We must be cautious in the face of volatile markets. Overall, gold is expected to trend upwards with some volatility. We should continue to maintain our strategy of buying on dips. If you're interested in gold but don't know where to start or are experiencing difficulties with your trading, feel free to contact me for discussion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BullBear-GoldDesk
Gold Price Analysis – Sell Setup ActiveXAUUSD – H4 Analysis Gold prices have respected the old lower order block and are seen pushing upwards from there. However, the price is still trading below the 50 DEMA, so the overall trend is still bearish (down). Entry: Sell 4965 Targets: First Target: 4800 Final Target: 4780 Stop Loss: 5080 Above 50 DEMA As long as the price does not sustain above the 50 DEMA, the upside should only be considered a pullback, and the trend is not changed. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, so always do your own research and manage risk properly before taking any trade.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Markovic_VascoView
Gold Shows Short-Term Recovery Signs After a Sharp Decline📊 Market Overview: Gold prices are surging today as safe-haven demand increases amid rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Ongoing conflict concerns continue to boost demand for safe assets, pushing gold prices up more than 2% during the session and lifting spot gold above ~5,070 USD/oz. Fundamental forecasts also support a bullish outlook if rate-cut expectations persist and economic data comes in weaker than expected. ________________________________________ 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance Levels: 1. ~ 5,100–5,120 USD/oz – strong psychological resistance and current session high zone. 2. ~ 5,250–5,300 USD/oz – extended target area if price breaks above current highs. • Nearest Support Levels: 1. ~ 4,900–4,950 USD/oz – short-term support in case of a pullback. 2. ~ 4,800–4,850 USD/oz – momentum support if a deeper correction occurs. • EMA / Trend: EMA 09: If price remains above EMA 09, it confirms a short-term bullish trend. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: Strong bullish candles with wide ranges reflect aggressive buying driven by geopolitical risk. Short-term momentum shows buying pressure dominating selling, with volume supporting the breakout above key psychological levels. ________________________________________ 📌 Outlook: Gold may continue to rise in the short term if: • Geopolitical tensions persist • The U.S. dollar weakens further • Markets continue to price in additional Fed rate cuts However, unexpectedly strong economic data or a more hawkish Fed stance could trigger a short-term correction before the main trend resumes. ________________________________________ 💡 Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 5,117 – 5,120 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 5,127 🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4,950 – 4,947 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: ~ 4,940
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
2
GOLD RALLY OR TRAP?This Bounce Looks Like Distribution, Not a Reversal Gold is bouncing — but context matters. After a strong selloff, price is now retracing into a key resistance zone, not breaking structure. This is where many traders get trapped chasing a “bottom” while smart money distributes. Market Structure Clear downtrend: Lower Highs & Lower Lows remain intact Current move = retracement, not impulsive bullish continuation Price is reacting below the descending trendline Key Technical Zone FVG / Supply zone around 5,26x → high-probability reaction area This zone aligns with retracement levels and prior imbalance If–Then Scenarios If price rejects 5,26x: → Downtrend continuation toward 4,63x → 4,51x → 4,40x If price breaks and holds above 5,26x (H1 close): → Bearish bias weakens, wait for new structure before trading Trading Mindset This is distribution after a selloff, not accumulation. Don’t confuse a bounce with a trend change. 📌 Strong trends don’t reverse quietly — they test patience first.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
5
XAUUSD 45-Minute Chart — Bearish Rejection From Resistance, Bearish Rejection From Resistance, Short Setup Toward Support Market Structure: Gold printed a strong impulsive rally, followed by loss of momentum and a rounded/curving top, signaling distribution. The sharp sell-off confirms a shift from bullish to bearish intraday structure. Key Resistance Zone (~5060–5070): This zone acted as previous consolidation and supply. Price retested it from below and failed to reclaim, validating it as resistance. Entry Logic (Short): The highlighted entry near resistance aligns with a classic break-and-retest setup. Sellers stepped in aggressively after the retest. Stop Loss (~5145): Placed above the recent lower high and rejection wick, protecting against a false breakdown and trend resumption. Target / Support Area (~4810–4850): Clear demand zone and prior accumulation area. This is the most logical downside target where buyers previously defended price. Risk–Reward: The setup offers a clean R:R, favoring continuation toward support if bearish momentum holds. Bias: 📉 Bearish below resistance — continuation lower favored unless price reclaims and holds above the resistance zone.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by FXCLASSICAL
GOLD 04/02 – SMC H4 ROUTE MAP | 5000 BALANCE STATE BROKEN👉 Fibo 0.5 has been broken → the market is no longer in a balanced upward state. What is happening now is a pullback in a bearish structure, not a reversal. Today, the focus is not on “buying or selling,” but on how the price reacts when it touches the old FVG and supply zones. MACRO CONTEXT IN BRIEF The market is still sensitive to Fed expectations and USD data → high intraday volatility. Geopolitics keeps gold from collapsing directly, but not enough to pull a new trend. ➡️ Result: gold rebounds quickly, but there is no trend commitment yet. TECHNICAL STRUCTURE H4 Previous H4 uptrend: ✅ has swept the peak ✅ a bearish CHoCH has appeared Fibo 0.5 (≈ 5000) has been broken → the upward structure is invalidated. Current price is: rebounding to H4 FVGs in the context of a still valid bearish structure TODAY'S ROUTE MAP – KEY PRICE ZONES 🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION ZONE (PRIORITY TO OBSERVE) 👉 5200 – 5250 H4 FVG Fib 0.618 – 0.705 The “textbook” rebound zone in a bearish structure ➡️ If the price rebounds here but is not accepted, it is a clear signal of a continuation to decrease. 👉 5350 – 5450 High FVG + Fib 0.786 Only if the price breaks and holds above this zone, the H4 bearish bias will be negated. 🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 👉 5000 – 5020 (has been broken, now a sensitive zone) Old Fibo 0.5 Price may react, but it is no longer a safe buying zone for swing. 👉 4850 – 4900 FVG + Fib 0.382 Important support zone for the next decrease. 👉 4600 – 4550 Liquidity low Only activated if bearish continues strongly and decisively. HOW WE READ & TRADE TODAY With the current structure: Scalp: follow price reactions at FVG & fib (especially during the European – American session). Swing: only follow the acceptance of the H4 structure, not emotional bottom fishing. Remember: 👉 The strongest rebounds often appear in a bearish market. But only the structure decides who goes far, who gets eliminated. LucasGrayTrading will continue to update as the price reacts at decisive zones. Follow to not miss quality intraday reactions. — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
2026 Outlook: Is the Bull Run Over?OANDA:XAUUSD 1. The Upside: Fibonacci Extension Targets Immediate Target ($5,278.99$) : This is the at 50% extension. Given the current momentum, this is the most likely "next stop" if the weekly candle closes strong. "Golden" Target ($5,599.15$) : The 61.8% level is often where major rallies take a breather. This is the heavy-hitter resistance zone. The Moonshot ($6,054 - $6,310$): If the macro environment stays this aggressive, the 78.6% and 88% levels suggest a push toward the $6,000$ psychological milestone. 2. The Downside: Support & Mean Reversion Parabolic moves like this are exciting, but they are rarely sustainable without a "cooling off" period. The "Safety Net" ($4,416 - $4,254$) : If the price corrects, the purple box highlighting the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement levels is the most logical zone for a "healthy" dip. Moving Average Support: The moving averages are currently trailing far below the price (around $4,560$). Usually, the price eventually "snaps back" to meet these averages. Momentum Warning The RSI (the oscillator at the bottom) is hovering near the 80.00 mark. While things can stay overbought for a long time in a mania, it suggests that the "easy money" on the long side has been made, and new entries here carry high risk.
FX:XAUUSD
by KianPermata27
GOLD 03/02: H4 ROUTE MAP – SMC STRUCTURE UPDATEGold prices have swept the peak liquidity and broken the upward structure on H4. But this is not the start of a new trend, rather a rebalancing phase after the sell-off. The next direction will depend on how prices react at key SMC zones. CONTEXT Expectations around the Fed and interest rate path remain unclear → USD and yields are highly volatile. Geopolitical instability continues to provide a supportive backdrop for gold, but not enough to create a new trend on its own. As a result: gold reacts strongly during the day, but there is no long-term commitment yet. ➡️ This explains why prices bounce quickly but have not broken the structure. H4 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE The previous H4 uptrend has been broken: Sweep peak CHoCH decline Current prices are in a technical pullback after a strong decline. FVG + Fibonacci zones are playing the role of the next decisive points. ROUTE MAP – PRICE ZONES TO WATCH 🔴 UPPER ZONE – SELL REACTION ZONE 👉 5230 – 5300 H4 FVG Fib 0.618 – 0.705 Typical pullback zone in a declining structure ➡️ If prices rebound here but are not accepted, the upward move is just a pullback to continue the decline. 👉 5350 – 5450 High FVG + Fib 0.786 Only if prices hold above this zone, the declining structure will truly be invalidated. 🟢 LOWER ZONE – BUY REACTION / SUPPORT 👉 4950 – 5000 Fib 0.5 Balance zone – likely to see two-way reactions 👉 4850 – 4900 Fib 0.382 H4 Demand – important support zone 👉 4600 – 4550 Liquidity low Only activated if bearish continues strongly HOW WE MONITOR THE MARKET NOW In the current context: News creates short-term momentum But the H4 structure still guides the trend We focus on: Observing price reactions at FVG & fib Clearly distinguishing: daily reflex moves (scalp) and structure acceptance for swing Strong pullbacks often attract emotions, but the market only truly speaks the truth when it holds key price zones. Future updates will focus on actual price reactions, not predictions. Follow to not miss important reaction points this week. — LucasGrayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LucasGrayTrading
5