Gold Price Today: XAUUSD Sets Stage for Continued Bullish ExpansGold (XAUUSD) Market Report – September 21, 2025
Gold remains positioned near 3,685, with recent price behavior showing a structured climb despite short bursts of volatility. The market is cycling through phases of expansion and retracement, where each corrective leg has been followed by renewed upward momentum. This rhythm signals that buyers are steadily maintaining control of the broader trend.
The current setup reflects a market that is rebalancing efficiently. Short-term pullbacks are being absorbed quickly, keeping pressure aligned toward the upside. The sequence of structural shifts on the chart points to a continuation of this momentum, suggesting that higher valuations are within reach if the present flow persists.
Overall, gold’s tone is constructive, characterized by resilience and sustained demand. The pattern unfolding indicates a market preparing for further expansion, with the potential for continuation into higher ranges in the sessions ahead.
Goldupdate
XAU/USD 19 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 18 September 2025.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's bullish trajectory, subsequently printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established range, however, I shall continue to monitor price action with respect to depth of pullback relative to recent price action.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,703,240.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 18 September 2025.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.
Previous price action printed a bearish CHoCH, subsequently printing higher, however, due to the insignificant depth of the pullback, relative to recent price action, I shall again apply discretion and not classify this an an internal high. This marked this in red.
Price has since continued bullish, printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has reacted from an M15 demand zone, within discount of 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal high priced at 3,703. 240
Alternative scenario: All HTF's require a corrective move, price has since failed to target and close above weak internal high therefore, and in order to confirm HTF bearish pullback phase, price could target strong internal low, priced at 3,612.240.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Market Analysis: Gold Rockets to New HighMarket Analysis: Gold Rockets to New High
Gold price rallied to a new all-time high above $3,670.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price started a major increase from $3,500 against the US Dollar.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,635 on the hourly chart of gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold, the price formed a base above $3,500. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $3,550.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,620. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,640 and $3,650 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed to a new all-time high at $3,674 before there was a pullback.
The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,511 swing low to the $3,674 high, and the RSI declined below 50. Initial support on the downside is near $3,635 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $3,635. The first major support is near the 50% Fib retracement at $3,592. If there is a downside break below $3,592, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $3,575. Any more losses might push the price toward $3,510.
Immediate resistance is near $3,655. The next major hurdle for the bulls is $3,675. An upside break above $3,675 could send Gold price toward $3,688. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $3,700.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GOLD Every Rise Has Its Sunset- From 2000 to today, gold has surged by an impressive 1000%, a remarkable performance for the world's leading asset.
- Keep in mind, every ascent is bound to face a descent someday.
- I’ll skip the deep dive into politics and fundamentals, but the picture is clear: with Trump winning the election, peace could make a comeback. Gold typically rises when fears of war spike, but as those fears ease, its value tends to drop.
- As always, the chart tells the story. Take a look at the Fibonacci levels— a prime buying opportunity is likely to emerge in the $1200 to $800 range.
- i will post in comments my older Gold Analysis.
Happy Tr4Ding !
XAU/USD Analysis: 3 Reasons Why Gold’s Rally Might PauseXAU/USD Analysis: 3 Reasons Why Gold’s Rally Might Pause
Today’s XAU/USD chart shows that gold continues to set records in September. The price has risen above $3,650 per ounce for the first time in history – one of the main drivers being expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, 17 September.
Easier monetary policy is generally seen as boosting gold’s appeal – this has pushed XAU/USD nearly 6% higher since the start of September. However, the chart highlights three reasons why further upside may be limited.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
1. Long-term channel:
Over the course of 2025, gold price movements have formed an ascending channel (shown in blue), and today XAU/USD is trading close to its median line. This is where supply and demand typically balance out. Buyers may consider the post-September rally overstretched, while sellers could view the all-time high as an opportunity to take profits.
2. Rectangle pattern target reached:
The range between $3,250 and $3,440 that developed mid-year can be interpreted as a rectangle pattern. Following the bullish breakout, the implied target of $3,630 has already been achieved.
3. RSI signals risk:
The RSI indicator is close to forming a bearish divergence.
Given the steep angle of the orange support line, a correction – for example, towards the psychological level of $3,550 – might occur.
In summary, gold’s upward momentum may start to slow. At the same time, given the market’s inertia, traders may have little reason to expect a decisive shift away from bullish dominance. Still, next Wednesday could bring surprises.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XAU/USD 05 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 04 September 2025.
Price has finally printed a bullish iBOS, in-line with analysis dated 23 April 2025
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,578.660.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 04 September 2025.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 13 June 2025 by targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375 and printing a bullish iBOS.
Price has again continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs with previous pullbacks being very minimal, therefore, I will again apply discretion and mark previous iBOS in red due to insignificant depth of pullback.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH which confirms internal structure, however, I will continue to monitor depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,578.660.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs USD) 4H chart.XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs USD) 4H chart. Let’s analyze:
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Current Market Context
Pair: Gold Spot / USD
Current Price: ~3,478.8
Trend: Strong bullish breakout above resistance zone (~3,425).
Indicators: Price above Ichimoku cloud = bullish momentum confirmed.
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Targets Marked on Chart
1. First Target Point (Immediate): Around 3,525 – 3,530
This is the nearest resistance after the breakout.
A likely short-term profit booking level.
2. Extended Target (Major): Around 3,560 – 3,565
This is the higher target i marked on the chart.
Strong resistance and potential reversal zone.
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Trade Plan (Based on Chart Setup)
Entry Zone: Already active around 3,475 – 3,480.
Take Profit 1: ~3,525.
Take Profit 2: ~3,565.
Stop Loss (Protective): Below breakout zone (~3,425).
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⚠ Note: Gold tends to move sharply during US sessions (especially with economic news like NFP, CPI, Fed updates). Trail your stop once TP1 is reached to lock in profits.
(XAUUSD – Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar, 2h timeframe)(XAUUSD – Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar, 2h timeframe), just look my marked a breakout above the downtrend line with a bullish move.
Key Levels on my Chart.
Current Price: ~3,378
Support Zone: 3,351 – 3,361 (highlighted green box and Ichimoku cloud support)
Target (marked on chart): ~3,410
Technical Observation:
The price has broken above resistance near 3,361 and is retesting it.
The breakout suggests momentum towards the next resistance.
My chart shows the target zone at 3,410, which is the next resistance area.
👉 Target: 3,410 (short-term upside target) if the bullish momentum continues.
Market Analysis: Gold Prices Climbs AgainMarket Analysis: Gold Prices Climbs Again
Gold price climbed again and traded above $3,350.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price started a steady increase from $3,310 against the US Dollar.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $3,378 on the hourly chart of gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold, the price found support near $3,310. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $3,330.
There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $3,350. The bulls pushed the price above the $3,365 and $3,378 resistance levels. Finally, the price climbed as high as $3,395 before there was a pullback.
The price tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,321 swing low to the $3,395 high, and the RSI declined below 50. Initial support on the downside is near $3,378 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The first major support is near the 50% Fib retracement at $3,358. If there is a downside break below $3,358, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $3,350. Any more losses might push the price toward $3,310.
Immediate resistance is near the $3,395 level. The next major hurdle for the bulls is $3,400. An upside break above $3,400 could send Gold price toward $3,420. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward $3,450.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XAU/USD 26 August 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
EUR/USD (2H chart) .Looking my EUR/USD (2H chart):
📊 Chart Observations
Price is currently around 1.1619.
There’s a clear ascending trendline support (diagonal blue line).
My chart shows potential rebound from support towards higher resistance zones.
🎯 Target Levels
1. First Target (Short-Term):
Around 1.1745 – 1.1750 zone (green resistance box).
2. Second Target (Extended):
Around 1.1815 – 1.1820 zone (upper resistance).
🛡 Supports to Watch
1.1650 – 1.1662 (nearest support zone, shown in blue/yellow cloud).
Trendline near 1.1600 – if broken, downside risk increases.
⚠ Reminder: These levels are based on technical chart patterns, not financial advice. Always confirm with volume, candlestick closes, and manage risk (stop-loss) properly.
Market Analysis: Gold Pulls BackMarket Analysis: Gold Pulls Back
Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,380.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,410 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
- A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,355 on the hourly chart of gold.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,380 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,400 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $3,409 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,380 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,350 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $3,330 zone. A low has formed near $3,331 and the price is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,409 swing high to the $3,331 low.
Immediate resistance on the upside is near a bearish trend line at $3,355 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major hurdle is near the 50% Fib retracement level.
The main barrier for the bulls could be near the $3,380 level, above which the price could test the $3,400 zone. Any more gains might call for a move toward $3,410. An upside break above $3,410 could send Gold price toward $3,425.
Initial support on the downside is near $3,330. The next key level is $3,320. If there is a downside break below $3,320, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $3,300 zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Today's GOLD Analysis : MMC Structural Analysis + Reversal ZoneThis analysis is rooted in MMC – Mirror Market Concepts, a framework designed to track institutional behavior through liquidity patterns, QFL (Quick Flip Levels), trendline shifts, and volume bursts. The current 4H Gold chart demonstrates a smart money footprint that provides actionable insight for intraday and swing traders.
🔍 Detailed Technical Breakdown:
🟦 1. Previous Supply Completed | Demand Zone Reversal
At the lower end of the chart, price entered a key blue zone around $3,250–$3,280, previously a supply zone now flipped into demand. This zone represents where institutional buyers absorbed liquidity, forming the base for a bullish impulse.
The strong reaction from this zone, marked by long-wick candles and immediate reversal, indicates exhaustion of selling pressure.
This reversal is confirmed by a QFL structure, meaning price created a fast liquidity sweep before flipping direction.
MMC recognizes this as a high-probability area of reversal, a point where smart money typically enters.
📈 2. Trendline Breakout & Structure Shift
A descending trendline, representing bearish market control, was decisively broken to the upside. This shift marks:
End of the corrective phase
Beginning of a bullish structural change
Buyers now control the short-term narrative
The breakout was not only clean but also supported by a volume burst, which is a classic MMC indicator that institutional traders are entering the market.
🔶 3. Volume Burst Confirmation
Volume behavior plays a critical role in MMC. We see a clear volume spike post-breakout. This suggests that:
The breakout is not false
Buyers were aggressively positioned
A sustainable move is in development
This supports the validity of the trendline breakout and confirms the idea that price is ready to test higher liquidity zones.
🟢 4. Current Price Structure: Bullish Channel
After the breakout, the market formed a bullish channel, where price is steadily climbing while respecting parallel boundaries.
The channel support line acts as a dynamic entry point for retracement buys
MMC strategy uses this structure to identify scaling entries at channel lows or after successful pullbacks into key reversal zones
🟩 5. Mini Reversal Area (Short-Term Resistance Zone)
Price is currently testing a minor supply zone or what MMC defines as a "Mini Reversal Area". This is a reaction zone before continuing toward the major target above.
There are two possible reactions:
Short-term rejection, leading to a pullback into the lower channel support zone
Minor consolidation, forming a base for a breakthrough toward major resistance
🟦 6. Major & Minor Supply Zones Above
Marked in light blue and green, these zones represent areas where previous selling volume and distribution occurred.
The major supply zone (approx. $3,440–$3,470) is the next institutional target
The minor zone sits between $3,400–$3,420 and may cause initial resistance or a base for another impulse
These levels are prime for partial profit-taking or scouting short-term reversal trades.
📊 Trade Management Insights:
🛒 Buy Opportunities (Long Bias):
On pullback into channel support near $3,340–$3,350
On bullish confirmation from mini reversal area
On break and retest above minor resistance at $3,420
🛑 Stop-Loss Suggestion:
Below the channel support or below the blue demand zone (approx. $3,245)
🎯 Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,400 (first resistance)
TP2: $3,420 (minor supply)
TP3: $3,450–$3,470 (major institutional level)
🧠 Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) Highlights:
QFL Structures = Institutional Reversal Points
Volume Burst = Confirmation of Breakout Validity
Trendline Breakout = Momentum Shift
Channel Structure = Controlled Climb Pattern
Mini Reversal Zone = Key Decision Point Before Continuation
🧭 TradingView Summary for Minds Community:
This GOLD chart beautifully aligns with the MMC method — spotting smart money involvement early and aligning with their flow. After confirming structural reversal via trendline and QFL, the setup now looks poised for continuation toward the $3,440–$3,470 zone, making it a perfect chart to watch for buy-the-dip setups.
XAU/USD 01 August 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Slipping Lower — 3250 and 3200 in Sight!✅ Gold & DXY Update – Post-FOMC Price Action
Earlier today, before the U.S. interest rate decision, I released my outlook on both the Dollar Index and gold.
In that analysis, I highlighted the DXY’s readiness to move toward the key level of 100 — and as of now, price is actively testing that exact zone, just as expected.
As for gold, I repeatedly emphasized the visible weakness on the buy side. It was clear that there were very few remaining buy orders strong enough to hold price up in this region — and that’s exactly what played out. Price has started pushing lower, in line with our expectations.
Looking ahead, I believe the first target is 3250, followed by a deeper move toward the liquidity zone and the marked box around 3200, which could act as a key target area in the coming days.
🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
XAU/USD 25 July 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Analysis of short-term gold trading on July 22Technical aspects:
From the daily candlestick chart, gold has recently shown signs of breaking upward after five weeks of sideways fluctuations. In terms of MACD indicators, the MACD bar chart has turned from green to red, and the fast and slow lines have formed a "golden cross", strengthening the expectation of a short-term technical rebound.
At the same time, the 14-day RSI index rebounded to 57.67, still in the neutral and strong area, and has not yet entered the overbought area, indicating that the price still has room to rise. Analysis shows that the middle track of the Bollinger Band 3342 constitutes initial support, while the strong support below is at the two previous lows of 3247.87 and 3120.64.
If the bulls maintain their advantage above the integer position of 3400, they are expected to hit the high point of 3451.14 in the short term, and even further test the historical high of 3499.83; on the contrary, if they fall back below 3342, the short-term upward momentum will be tested.
Bull analysis:
If gold successfully stands above 3400, the market will turn its attention to the two key resistance areas of 3451 and 3499, the high point of the year. Breaking through the former will open up the space to test the historical high upward; combined with the current MACD golden cross pattern, if the capital side and the fundamentals continue to cooperate, it is not ruled out that there will be a short-term accelerated rise.
Bear analysis:
If the breakthrough fails, especially if gold falls back below the middle track of Bollinger, the adjustment pressure will be restarted, and the lower edge of the previous consolidation range of 3300 will constitute an important support. If it falls below again, it is necessary to pay attention to the important technical support near 3247 and the 100-day moving average of 3180.
7.17 Gold Short-Term Operation Technical Analysis!!!After a strong rise in the 1-hour gold price, it quickly fell back and closed with a long upper shadow line. The gold bulls did not successfully stabilize the market. This market is actually a venting of the news. The gold bulls are not very confident about rising again. The 1-hour gold moving average is still in a dead cross short pattern. So the gold rebound will continue to be short. The 1-hour gold pattern excludes the influence of the upper shadow line stimulated by yesterday's news. In fact, the whole rhythm is still fluctuating and falling. The upper shadow line is not long, and it is probably just a lure to buy more. After the ups and downs of gold last night, it rebounded again to the 3357 line or continued to fall under pressure. So gold will continue to rebound in the early trading and continue to be short at highs under the pressure of 3357.
Gold is accelerating downward, pay attention to important supporThe U.S. inflation data for June was released overnight. The actual data showed that U.S. inflation rebounded slightly in June, but it did not exceed expectations. After the data was released, Trump made a speech at Truth A post on Social said that given the low consumer prices, the Fed should lower interest rates. He has been calling for a rate cut for some time, so the market still has some uncertainty about the timing of the Fed's subsequent rate cuts, but the probability is in September. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged this month is high. The US dollar index is also supported and continues to rebound. Gold fluctuated higher from around 3344 in the morning of the previous trading day. During the European session, it refreshed the intraday high and touched the 3366 line under pressure and maintained repeated narrow consolidation. After the data was released, it first rebounded quickly to the 3360 line and then quickly fell back. After two repetitions, it finally moved downward. In the evening, it fell below the intraday low and once touched around 3320 and then stabilized and rebounded. The daily line closed with a middle shadow. Technically, the continuation of the previous convergence triangle after the break is currently returning to the downward channel again.
Pay attention to the pressure of 3342/44 during the day, and pay attention to the support near 3308 below. If it falls below 3308 again, it will return to the downward channel.
XAU/USD 15 July Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Two lines of defense for bulls: 3340 and 3330 are the key!Gold maintains a strong pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to mainly buy on dips. The short-term support below focuses on the neckline of the hourly line at 3340 last Friday. The more critical support is locked at the 3330 line. This range is an important watershed for judging the continuation of short-term bullish momentum. As long as the daily level can remain stable above the 3330 mark, the overall trend will remain upward. Before falling below this position, we should adhere to the idea of buying low and buying low, and rely on key support levels to arrange long orders. At present, the price has completed a technical breakthrough and broke through the upper edge of the 3330 convergence triangle under the dual positive factors of Trump's tariff landing to stimulate risk aversion and the support of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and formed three consecutive positive daily lines. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term pressure at the 3375 line. The overall operation strategy will be combined with the real-time trend prompts during the trading session, and pay attention to the bottom in time.
Gold rises strongly, aiming for a new high!Last Friday, gold continued to rise strongly, breaking through 3320 in the Asia-Europe session and accelerating its rise. The European session broke through the 3340 mark continuously. The US session broke through 3369 and then fell back. The daily line closed with a big positive line. It broke through the high for three consecutive days and returned to above 3360. The unilateral bullish pattern was re-established. Today, the gold price jumped high and broke through 3370 and then fluctuated at a high level. Although it rushed up, the strength was limited. It must be adjusted after a short-term retracement before it can continue to rise. Therefore, in terms of operation, we continue to maintain the main idea of retreating and multiplying. Pay attention to the 3340-3345 area for short-term support during the day, and look at the 3330 line for strong support. If it does not break, it will continue to be a good opportunity to buy low and do more. Taking advantage of the trend is still the current main tone. As long as the daily level does not break 3330, the bullish structure will not be destroyed.
🔹Support focus: 3340-3345, key support level 3330
🔹Resistance focus: 3380-3393 area
1️⃣ If the price falls back to 3340-3350, a light long position will be intervened, with the target of 3365-3370. A strong breakthrough can see a new high;
2️⃣ If the price rises to 3380-3393 and is under pressure, a short-term short position adjustment can be tried, with a short-term target of around 3360.
The specific real-time points and position arrangements will be updated at the bottom. Interested friends are advised to pay attention to my strategy tips in a timely manner and seize every opportunity reasonably.