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GOLD (XAU/USD) – Rejection from Supply, Pullback Plan🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN – GOLD (XAU/USD) | Rejection from Supply & Pullback Opportunities Date: Oct 23, 2025 Main timeframe: M30 – H1 Strategy: SMC + CHoCH + Liquidity + Supply/Demand 1. Market Context Price has confirmed a bullish CHoCH at 4071 → 4094 and then broke structure upward (BOS), indicating short-term bullish intent. However, on H1, price is reacting to the 4124–4126 supply zone, aligning with higher-timeframe resistance (4,210–4,180 area). We may expect a short-term pullback toward discount zones before continuation or reversal confirmation. 2. Key Levels SELL Zone: 4124 – 4126 → Active supply area (short-term rejection zone) BUY Zone 1: 4094 – 4092 → First mitigation zone BUY Zone 2: 4084 – 4082 → Discount re-entry BUY Zone 3: 4073 – 4071 → Extreme liquidity sweep area Support zone (H1): 4,090 – 4,045 Resistance zone (H1): 4,210 – 4,180 3. Trading Scenarios A. Short-term SELL Entry: 4124 – 4126 Stop loss: 4132 Take profit 1: 4105 Take profit 2: 4090 → Targeting pullback to demand zones before potential rebound. B. BUY (Reversal Setup at Discount Zone) Entry: 4084 – 4082 Stop loss: 4078 Take profit 1: 4108 Take profit 2: 4124 Take profit 3: 4145 → Look for bullish confirmation at mitigation or liquidity sweep below 4080. 4. Bias 🔁 Neutral-to-Bullish: Expecting short-term retracement from supply zone before continuation upward. A close above 4126 would confirm bullish continuation toward 4180–4210. A break below 4070 invalidates bullish bias.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Anneliese_Engel
GBPAUD potential SELL setupBearish Breakdown Setup Summary Analysing Price action from yesterday we have got a very nice distribution leg push that broke down below our accumulation zone a good indication of downside momentum, therefore the anticipation is that price will retest our BOS an ideal zone to look for SELL setups. 📉 GBPAUD Daily Breakdown Potential setup 🔴 Distribution leg: 2.06875 - 2.05697 📉 Sell level: 2.06423 (Confirmed Break) 🎯 Target 1: R:R 1:2 🎯 Target 2: R:R 1:3 🎯 Target 3: R:R 1:4 🛑 Stop Loss: Above Resistance Zone 🔍 Watch: Break above resistance zone invalidates idea LIKE or COMMENT if this idea sparks your interest, or share your thoughts below! FOLLOW to keep up with fresh ideas. Tidypips: "Keep It Clean, Trade Mean!"
Short
by Tidypips
GBPJPY Potential BULLISH Setup🚀 GBPJPY: BULLISH Setup Summary: Analysing price action from yesterday, breakout from the Daily timeframe accumulation zone has materialized with strong conviction. TRADE SETUP Metrics: - Entry: ✅ - Stop loss - Below Support Zone - Target 1: (R:R 1:2)🎯 - Target 2: (R:R 1:3)🎯 - Target 3: (R:R 1:4)🎯 Technical Anticipations: - Price action to show a Bullish follow-through - Support zone to hold Position Management: - partial profits secured at Target 1 - Stop loss adjusted to breakeven upon reaching Targets - Final Target 3 LIKE or COMMENT if this idea sparks your interest, or share your thoughts below! FOLLOW to keep up with fresh ideas. Tidypips: "Keep It Clean, Trade Mean!"
Long
by Tidypips
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold is extending its rally, now trading around $3,813 after breaking out of the $3,796 resistance. Momentum accelerated once price cleared $3,776, with strong follow-through toward the next upside targets. Current resistance sits at $3,828, while support is established at $3,776. A clean break above $3,828 would keep momentum intact, opening the path to $3,846. Failure to clear $3,828 may trigger a retracement into $3,796 or deeper toward $3,776. The $3,753 -$3,734/ First Reaction Zone remains a major pullback area if sellers regain control. 📌 Key levels to watch: Resistance: $3,828 $3,846 Support: $3,812 $3,796 $3,776 $3,753 $3,734 🔎 Fundamental Focus – Week of Sep 29–Oct 4 It’s a heavy week for USD with key risk events: 🚩JOLTS Job Openings, Consumer Confidence 🚩ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing, OPEC Meetings 🚩Jobless Claims 🚩NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Services PMI 👉 This is jobs week — labour market data will dominate. Expect high volatility, especially into Friday’s NFP release.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
EIGEN Breakout Confirmation, Eyes on 2.20+$EIGEN has broken above a key resistance zone, signaling a shift in momentum. The breakout comes after weeks of consolidation with strong support holding at the ascending trendline. Trade Setup Entry: Around current breakout levels Stop Loss: Below 1.33 (trendline support) Targets: TP1: 2.20 TP2: 2.86 TP3: 3.78 TP4: 5.27 As long as price holds above the reclaimed zone, the structure favors bulls with upside targets in play. DYOR, NFA #PEACE
Long
by unichartz
NQ100 Intraday Outlook – Sept 8, 2025🧠 NQ100 Intraday Outlook – Sept 8, 2025 Bias: Intraday Bearish after NY Open Price is currently trading within a well-defined premium zone, between the Sunday-Monday Order Block and the BPR M30 area. 🧩 Key Observations: Price tapped into a minor M5 Order Block (OB) right after the 8:30 NY macro event. We're seeing a reaction to a short-term OB, with a small push up likely to grab liquidity above the London session high. Expecting liquidity run + rejection from the upper OB zone (23,810–23,830). 🔽 Bearish Scenario: After the sweep of local highs, I anticipate a sell-off toward the Imbalance zone below (23,710 area). Main targets are: Imbalance fill Possibly further down toward Weekly Open near 23,680 🔧 Confluence: Midnight Open has already been reclaimed. NY AM session is about to open – expecting expansion to provide confirmation. Potential divergence between NQ (stronger) and ES (weaker) gives context for relative weakness later in the session. 📌 Idea Summary: I expect one final push into the premium zone to grab liquidity before reversing down toward the Imbalance and possibly into the Weekly Open.
CME_MINI:MNQU2025Short
by gysnoize
1
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold rallied strongly yesterday, reaching into the $3,422 resistance zone, but failed to hold above and has since pulled back to around $3,409. Price is consolidating just above the $3,406 level, with short-term momentum still supported by the 50MA (pink) and 200MA (green) trending higher. For the bullish case to continue, gold needs a decisive break and hold above $3,422, which would open the way toward $3,445. If price remains capped, we may see a deeper correction, first into $3,386, then $3,363, and potentially retesting the First Support Zone ($3,347–$3,328). 📌Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $3,422 $3,445 Support: $3,406 $3,386 $3,363 $3,347 $3,328 🔎 Fundamental Focus – Friday, Aug 29 Today brings key U.S. data including Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, and UoM Consumer Sentiment. These reports will give fresh signals on inflation and growth. ⚠️ It’s also the last trading day of August — expect higher volatility. Manage exposure carefully heading into the weekend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold is trading around $3,400, pushing higher after reclaiming the $3,386 level, with the next target at $3,406. A clean break and sustained hold above $3,406 would open the path toward $3,422. On the downside, failure to clear resistance could trigger a pullback into the $3,386 support, with deeper weakness exposing $3,363 and the $3,347–$3,328 support zone. 📌Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $3,406 $3,422 Support: $3,386 $3,363 $3,347 $3,328 🔎 Fundamental Focus – Thursday, Aug 28 Today’s focus is on U.S. Prelim GDP and Unemployment Claims, both high-impact releases likely to move gold. Pending Home Sales also on the calendar. ⚠️ Volatility expected — watch for sharp moves and possible fakeouts around release times.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold is trading around $3,326, moving lower after repeated failures to reclaim the $3,344 resistance yesterday. Price is now testing the lower edge of the First Support Zone ($3,324–$3,344). It remains capped below both the 50MA (pink) and 200MA (green), which have flattened out, indicating a bearish or indecisive market structure. If sellers gain momentum and break below $3,324, focus shifts toward the Secondary Support Zone ($3,304–$3,281). A clean break under $3,281 would expose the HTF Support Zone ($3,254–$3,229). For buyers, only a sustained move back above $3,344 and the 200MA would shift momentum, opening the path toward $3,364 and $3,386. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $3,344 $3,364 $3,386 $3,406 Support: $3,324 $3,304 $3,281 $3,254 $3,229 📌 Fundamental Focus – Friday, Aug 22 Today’s spotlight is on the Jackson Hole Symposium, with key speeches from Fed Chair Powell, FOMC members, and President Trump expected to drive volatility. Markets will be highly reactive to policy signals and geopolitical remarks. ⚠️ Friday Risk Warning: Expect higher volatility, potential intraday manipulations, and sharp position adjustments as markets head into the weekend close. Liquidity often thins in late Friday sessions, so manage exposure carefully and avoid holding unnecessary risk over the weekend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Nifty Weekly Outlook (15–21 August 2025)Nifty Weekly Outlook (15–21 August 2025) Above pivot = bullish bias. Below pivot = bearish bias. Watch for reversals near R1/S1, then R2/S2, and finally R3/S3 if levels break. 📢 Disclaimer I am not a SEBI-registered financial adviser. The information, views, and ideas shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments. Please consult with your SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Trading and investing in the stock market involves risk, and you should do your own research and analysis. You are solely responsible for any decisions made based on this research.
NSE:NIFTY
by AATHIE
Smart Money Watching This Line — Are You?Bitcoin is holding strong above a key trendline that has acted as dynamic support since March. Every time price touched this line, buyers stepped in, and once again, it’s doing its job. What was once resistance has now flipped into solid support. The recent pullback seems healthy, and the price is trying to bounce from the trendline area again. As long as CRYPTOCAP:BTC respects this structure, the bullish momentum remains intact. If it holds, we could see another leg up from here. DYOR, NFA Thanks for reading!
Long
by unichartz
Learning#03 : VWAP in Intraday TradingLearning#03 : VWAP in Intraday Trading 📊 VWAP in Intraday Trading: The Market’s Fair Price GPS Ever wondered if there’s a level that shows where the real trading action is happening? That’s exactly what VWAP does — it’s like a volume-weighted compass that intraday traders use to orient themselves in the market. It’s not just another line on your chart. VWAP reflects where institutions and volume-heavy participants are active. That’s why understanding how price interacts with it can give you a serious edge. Let’s break it down 👇 🧠 What is VWAP? VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. In simple terms, it shows the average price a stock has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume. Unlike a simple average, VWAP gives more weight to prices where more trading volume occurred — meaning it's a better reflection of the market’s consensus value. Think of it as: A real-time fair value line for intraday decision-making. 📈 Why VWAP Matters for Intraday Traders VWAP acts as an intraday anchor. It tells you whether the price is currently trading above or below the day’s volume-weighted average — giving you quick insight into who's in control. Here’s how to interpret it: When price is above VWAP, buyers are in control and the bias is bullish. When price is below VWAP, sellers are dominating and the bias is bearish. When price is hovering near VWAP, the market is undecided, consolidating, or lacking direction. In short, VWAP tells you who’s winning the intraday tug of war — and whether it’s even worth stepping in. ⚙️ How to Use VWAP in Your Intraday Strategy 1️⃣ VWAP as a Trend Filter Before entering a trade, check where price is relative to VWAP: Price above VWAP with higher lows → Focus on long setups Price below VWAP with lower highs → Focus on short setups 🔁 Skip counter-trend trades. Stay with the flow. This helps in trending markets by keeping you aligned with momentum. 2️⃣ VWAP as Dynamic Support or Resistance VWAP behaves like a magnet. Price often pulls back to it and either: Rejects (respects the level as support/resistance), or Breaks and reclaims (signaling a potential reversal) Use it alongside: Flag patterns Inside bars Break-and-retest structures 3️⃣ VWAP Reversion Play (Snapback Trade) This is a mean-reversion setup: Price moves quickly away from VWAP at open No strong follow-through, signs of exhaustion Take a counter-trend trade back to VWAP ⚠️ Avoid this in strong trending markets — best used in choppy or fading environments. 4️⃣ VWAP with Price Action for Structure Pair VWAP with clean price action: Mark support and resistance zones Observe price behavior near VWAP Look for confirmation: inside bars, rejection wicks, engulfing candles 🎯 This adds logic and clarity to your entries — no random trades. 🔍 Bonus VWAP Tips Combine VWAP with: CPR (Central Pivot Range) for confluence zones Opening range for breakout bias Volume profile to spot high interest areas These combos create strong, repeatable trade setups. ✅ VWAP Recap: Why It Matters Here’s a quick breakdown of how VWAP can sharpen your intraday trading game: Bias Building: VWAP helps confirm whether the market structure is bullish or bearish, giving you a reliable directional bias. Trend Filtering: It keeps you aligned with the current momentum by filtering out counter-trend trades. Pullback Entries: VWAP acts as a dynamic support or resistance level, offering clean zones to enter trades during pullbacks. Mean Reversion: In sideways or fading markets, VWAP becomes a natural magnet — allowing you to target price reversions. Risk Management: It provides logical reference points for placing stop-losses and defining entry zones, adding clarity to your risk-reward planning. ✍️ Final Thoughts VWAP may sound simple, but it brings real structure to intraday trading. It tells you where volume met price, and that’s powerful. When used with price action, it creates a solid framework for: Building directional bias Finding clean entries Managing risk like a pro VWAP doesn’t predict — it reflects. And in trading, reflection is more useful than prediction. 🛎️ Respect VWAP. Trade with structure. — Kiran Zatakia
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by kzatakia
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold broke above the 3,362 resistance and extended its rally into the 3,400 resistance zone, currently trading around 3,386. Price remains comfortably above both the 50MA and 200MA, which are sloping upward and acting as dynamic support—keeping short‑term structure bullish. A confirmed break and hold above 3,400 would open the path toward the next upside targets at 3,416 and 3,440, with 3,458 as a higher‑timeframe extension if momentum continues. If price fails to sustain above 3,383–3,400 and begins to fade, watch the initial pullback toward 3,362. A deeper move below that would shift focus to the Pullback Support Zone. Failure to hold there could expose price to the Support Zone and potentially the HTF Support Zone if bearish pressure builds. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 3,383 ‣ 3,400 ‣ 3,416 ‣ 3,440 Support: 3,362 ‣ 3,336 ‣ 3,317 ‣ 3,302 ‣ 3,289 🔎 Fundamental Focus – 📌 Fed Chair Powell Speaks – key event that can move USD and gold sharply.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Gold (XAUUSD) – 21 July | M15 Pullback Within Bearish Structure🟠 Gold (XAUUSD) – 21 July Analysis | M15 Pullback in Bearish Trend Gold is currently in a pullback phase within a bearish M15 trend . The market structure is defined between the M15 lower high at 3377.650 and the previous low at 3310 . On Friday, price retested the M15 supply zone near the lower boundary, and again today, it has reacted from the same area. This repeated rejection suggests that sellers are still defending this level. 🔍 Trend Context: – M15: Bearish (Lower High → Lower Low structure intact) – H4: Currently in a pullback phase Unless the price breaks above the key 3377.650 level, the bearish structure remains valid. As such, our directional bias continues to favour shorts. 🟥 Key Supply Zone: 3358–3377.650 – Recent rejections seen from this zone – Acts as the active short-term supply zone – Watching for internal M15 bearish shift for possible entry Preferred Scenario: As price has already retested the M15 supply zone, if we now see a downside shift in internal M15 structure (e.g., ChoCH + BoS), we will look for a potential short entry aligned with the dominant M15 trend . No confirmation, no entry. Always follow structure. Alternate Scenario: If the market breaks above the 3377.650 lower high, it would signal a potential bullish structure shift . In that case, we will step back from the short bias and re-evaluate long opportunities accordingly. 📌 Trade Plan: – Wait for M15 internal structure to shift (ChoCh) bearish, followed by a Break of Structure (BoS) – On the retest, mark the Point of Interest (POI) for potential short setup – Only act on confirmation (e.g., M1 ChoCH + BoS) – SL: 40 pips | TP: 120 pips | Risk-Reward: Always 1:3 Summary: – Gold is in a pullback phase within a bearish M15 trend – Key levels to watch: 3377.650 (lower high) and 3310 (previous low) – Bias remains bearish unless structure flips – Watch for internal structure shift for short opportunity – Stay patient and aligned with the dominant trend 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartIsMirror
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday, gold staged a strong rally, pushing up toward 3,377, which was followed by a strong rejection. Price has pulled back sharply and is now testing the Pullback Zone once again. Currently trading around 3,329, price is caught between the 50MA overhead acting as dynamic resistance and the 200MA below offering dynamic support. For the bullish structure to regain momentum, we need to see a clean break and hold back above 3,354. This would reopen the path toward 3,383 and 3,400, with 3,416 as a higher‑timeframe target. If buyers fail to defend the Pullback Support Zone, and price breaks decisively below 3,305, attention shifts to the Support Zone (3,289–3,267). A deeper selloff could then expose the HTF Support Zone (3,241–3,208). 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: ‣ 3,354 ‣ 3,383 ‣ 3,400 ‣ 3,416 Support: ‣ 3,335 ‣ 3,305 ‣ 3,289 ‣ 3,267 ‣ 3,241 🔎 Fundamental Focus – High‑Impact U.S. Data Today A packed U.S. calendar could drive volatility: 📌Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m 📌Unemployment Claims 📌Philly Fed Manufacturing Index These red‑folder releases can create sharp intraday swings. Additionally, multiple FOMC member speeches later in the session could add headline‑driven moves.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold Short Term OutlookGold has extended its recovery after holding above the Pullback Support Zone and is now trading around 3,359, attempting to build momentum toward higher resistance levels. The structure remains bullish with price trading above both the 50MA and 200MA , which are starting to slope upward and act as dynamic support. A confirmed break and hold above 3,354 would open the path toward the next resistance cluster at 3,383 and potentially 3,400, with 3,416 and 3,440 as higher-timeframe resistance targets. If price fails to hold above 3,354 and begins to fade, watch the Pullback Support Zone (3,335–3,305) closely for signs of renewed buying interest. A clean break below that zone would shift focus to the deeper Support Zone (3,289-3,267) and potentially the HTF Support Zone (3,241–3,208) if selling pressure builds. 📌 Key Levels to Watch Resistance: ‣ 3,364 ‣ 3,383 ‣ 3,400 ‣ 3,416 Support: ‣ 3,354 ‣ 3,335 ‣ 3,305 ‣ 3,289 ‣ 3,267 ‣ 3,241 ‣ 3,208 🔎 Fundamental Focus All eyes are on today’s U.S. CPI release
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Learning#02 : Fractals⛰️ Learning#02 : Fractals The Cleanest Clue on a Cluttered Chart If you like clean charts and smart price behaviour, Fractals are one of those tools that give subtle but powerful signals. They’re not magic. They simply reflect what price is telling you—if you’re willing to listen. Let’s unpack the concept and learn how to use Fractals like a pro. 🔍 What Is a Fractal in Trading? In technical analysis, a Fractal is a five-candle pattern that marks a local top or bottom in price. It’s a pure price-action signal that doesn’t rely on lagging indicators. There are two types of Fractals: Bearish Fractal (Top): The 3rd candle has the highest high, surrounded by two lower highs on each side. Bullish Fractal (Bottom): The 3rd candle has the lowest low, flanked by two higher lows on each side. These formations are Price's way of saying: *"I tried to go further, but couldn't." 📊 What Do Fractals Indicate? A shift in short-term control (bulls vs. bears) Minor support or resistance zones Useful markers for entries, exits, or trailing stop levels They don't guarantee reversals but are excellent at highlighting where price momentum may pause, reverse, or build structure. 📈 How to Use Fractals – A Practical Guide Let’s be clear: Fractals are not trade signals by themselves. Instead, they work best when used in confluence with your strategy. Think of them as tools that: Help confirm breakout levels Refine pullback entries Guide you in drawing cleaner trendlines, fib zones, and support/resistance levels Assist in identifying swing highs and lows for Dow Theory-style trend analysis 🔗 Fractals + Strategy = Smart Trading Whether you trade breakouts or mean reversion, Fractals help clarify: Which highs or lows matter Where to place stop losses with structure-based logic How to trail SL as the trade progresses They quietly organize your chart into readable, tradeable levels. 🚀 Practical Uses of Fractals Fractals are the first tool I add to any chart—they instantly reveal structure and guide every step of my analysis. 1. Breakout Confirmation Wait for a candle to close above a bullish fractal high or below a bearish fractal low. Useful when the market is trending or forming structures like double bottoms/tops. 2. Pullback with Confirmation Use the fractal zone as a short-term S/R level. If price returns and shows signs of rejection (like an inside bar, wick rejections, or low volume), consider entries based on confirmation. Great in sideways or swing environments. 3. Trend Structure Validation Fractals reveal clear pivot highs/lows, helping: Confirm higher highs/higher lows Mark structure for trendline drawing Validate Fib levels or S/R zones 4. Trailing Stop Loss Update your SL to trail behind the most recent opposite-side fractals. In longs: SL below new bullish fractals In shorts: SL above new bearish fractals This lets you stay in the move while managing risk like a pro. How it’s Look Like on Chart snapshot ⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid Trading every fractal blindly Ignoring price context or trend Relying on fractals in low-volume, choppy markets 📝 Final Thoughts Fractals are like breadcrumbs left by price action. They quietly point to areas where the market faced resistance or found support. Alone, they’re not enough. But in the hands of a price-action trader, they’re incredibly useful. Used alongside market structure, confirmation signals, and clean charting habits, Fractals become: Trend identifiers Entry enhancers Stop loss trail markers ⭐ Bonus Tip Next time you mark a level, Fibonacci or draw a trendline, check if a Fractal confirms it. You’ll be surprised how often it does. Trade simple. Trade clean. — Kiran Zatakia
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by kzatakia
Gold To The Basement? Week Ahead with Bearish Bias by PhoenixFX🌟 Welcome to Phoenix FX’s Intraday Pulse! 🌟 Hello, Phoenix FX family! 👋 I’m thrilled you’ve joined us for today’s TradingView chart breakdown. Our focus? Intraday opportunities—spotting those high-probability setups you can enter, manage, and leave to run whilst you concentrate on the things you love doing. Here’s what you’ll find in this analysis: Key Levels & Zones: Support, resistance, and Fair Value Gaps that matter on the smaller timeframes. Price-Action Clues: Exact candlestick patterns and momentum signals to watch for your next entry. Trade Triggers & Targets: Clear criteria for when to get in, where to take profits, and how to manage your risk. Whether you’re hunting quick scalps or tactical swing moves, our goal is simple: help you trade with confidence, clarity, and community support. Got a different view or a fresh idea? Drop it in the comments—after all, “each one, teach one.” 😉 Let’s dive into the charts and make today’s market moves count! 🚀📈 Donald Trump’s presidency continues to exert outsized influence on gold through three main channels: trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus (and resulting deficits), and shifts in safe-haven demand. Here’s how each factor has played out—and what it could mean for gold going forward: 1. Trade-War Uncertainty What’s Happening: The Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs—including recent 25% duties on goods from Japan and South Korea—has periodically roiled markets and driven investors into gold as a safe haven. On July 7, gold pared losses after tariff news, as traders sought refuge despite a firm dollar. Looking Ahead: If further tariff escalations or retaliations emerge, expect renewed spikes in gold. Conversely, any de-escalation or trade-deal breakthroughs could sap that safe-haven bid. 2. Fiscal Stimulus & Deficits What’s Happening: Senate Republicans recently passed a Trump-backed tax‐and‐spending package projected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit. Larger deficits—especially when financed by the Fed—tend to stoke inflation expectations, which bolsters gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Looking Ahead: Continued large-scale stimulus or fresh tax cuts without offsetting revenue measures could keep real yields low (or negative), a classic tailwind for gold. 3. Safe-Haven Flows & Investor Positioning What’s Happening: Despite peaking at record highs earlier this year, gold remains up roughly 30% since November, driven largely by investor fears around Trump’s policy unpredictability and geopolitical tensions. Looking Ahead: Should Trump-era uncertainty persist—whether around trade, foreign policy, or domestic turmoil—gold is likely to retain its status as a portfolio diversifier and crisis hedge. A sustained drop in U.S. real rates or fresh bouts of market volatility would reinforce that trend. 🎯 Outlook Summary Bullish Drivers: Ongoing trade-war rhetoric, larger deficits, and any new geopolitical flashpoints. Bearish Risks: Clear resolution of major trade disputes, a pivot by the Fed toward earlier rate cuts (reducing real‐rate support for gold), or diminished investor fear. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PhoenixFX price action analysis based on the Daily time frame 🔴 Primary Resistance (Daily) Zone: $3,348 – $3,400 Why It Matters: Multiple daily closes have stalled here, leaving a clear Fair-Value Gap (dashed purple). Sellers are likely to defend this range until we see a decisive daily close above $3,400. 📉 Bearish Bias – Short Setups Short at Resistance Entry: Bearish daily reversal candle (engulfing, pin-bar) in $3,348–$3,400 Targets: TP1: $3,290 (50% of Primary Buy Zone) TP2: $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low) TP3: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone high) Stop-Loss: Above $3,420 Breakdown Short Trigger: Daily close below $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low) Entry: On the open of the next daily candle after close below $3,250 Targets: TP1: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone) TP2: $3,026 (Final Buy Zone 50% level) Stop-Loss: Above $3,290 🔵 Potential Long Opportunities Defensive Long (Aggressive) Entry: Bullish daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 Targets: TP1: $3,348 (short-term resistance) TP2: $3,400 (key resistance) Stop-Loss: Below $3,230 Trend-Reversal Long (Ultra-Conservative) Trigger: Daily close above $3,400 Entry: Open of the next daily candle after the close above $3,400 Targets: TP1: $3,450 TP2: $3,500+ Stop-Loss: Below $3,360 📊 Week-Ahead Scenarios Bearish Scenario (High Probability): Price remains capped under $3,400. Look for a bearish signal in $3,348–$3,400 to initiate shorts. A break below $3,250 extends the move into deeper demand zones ($3,172 → $3,026). Bullish Counter-Trend (Lower Probability): Strong daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 could spark a relief rally. Short-term longs can target $3,348 and $3,400—ideal for quick swing trades. Only a sustained daily close above $3,400 shifts the bias back to the upside. Just a Heads-Up: This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮. Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅 We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments! Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈 Each one, teach one. — Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by PFXteam