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MNQ Friday Outlook | Consolidation & Liquidity Build📊 MNQ Weekly Close Setup — Jan 30, 2026 Thursday's session swept the IPDA 20 Day High and delivered an 800+ point selloff into discount arrays. After a move like that, Friday typically consolidates. ✅ Documented this move on Twitter before it happened. 🎯 EXPECTATION: Equilibrium Consolidation Price will likely hover around equilibrium, building: • Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) below • Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) above This creates a trap — shorts get enticed by the "continuation" narrative. 📍 LEVELS TO WATCH: • HTF Breaker + Order Block (formed before the run down) • Equilibrium of the current range • Discount arrays as support ⚠️ TWO SCENARIOS: 1️⃣ Consolidation → Push into HTF Breaker/OB Shorts pile in, get squeezed into the breaker zone 2️⃣ Sideways Chop → Wait for Next Week Low volume Friday grind, real move comes Monday Either way — no need to force it. Let liquidity form, then strike. 📝 Will update Friday AM before market open if anything changes.
CME_MINI:MNQH2026
by DropkingICT
IMRX Market Maker ModelThe algorithm has executed a terminal "Macro Buy-Side Liquidity Purge" at 8.50, violently rejecting the highs to reprice into the Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 4.66. The current price action represents a high-risk, high-reward "Return to Origin" setup; the market is compelled to engineer a technical bounce to mitigate the massive inefficiency created by the collapse, targeting the 6.00 equilibrium before any further structural decision is made. EXECUTION VECTOR (THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE) Entry: 4.50 - 4.70 (Current Market Price - Inside the Monthly FVG) Stop Loss: 3.90 (Structural Invalidation below the Breakout Base) Take Profit: 6.00 (Bearish Breaker / 50% Retracement of the Crash) Risk to Reward Ratio: 2.5R THE CAUSAL RATIONALE The Opportunity (The Macro Purge) Look at the Weekly Chart: That massive wick leaving 8.50 is not just a rejection; it is a "Death Candle." It signifies that the entire rally from the lows was a calculated operation to harvest the liquidity resting above the 2023 consolidation highs. The Smart Money used that spike to exit their positions into the buying frenzy of retail chasers. The job "up there" is done. The liquidity has been taken. The Entry (The Monthly FVG Support) However, markets do not move in straight lines. The collapse from 8.50 to 4.66 was too fast. It created a "Liquidity Void" on the downside. The price has now slammed into the "Monthly Fair Value Gap" and the "Order Block" that launched the move. This is the "Scene of the Crime." Algorithms are programmed to defend the origin of a move on the first test. We are buying the *reaction* to this support, not a new bull run. The Invalidation (The Trap Door) The Omega Point is a daily close below 3.90. If price accepts value back inside the old consolidation range, it confirms that the breakout was a total failure (a "Look Above and Fail"). In that scenario, the price will rot and drift back towards 2.00. The "Monthly FVG" must hold as a trampoline. THE PROBABILISTIC LANDSCAPE Key Trajectory Waypoints Target 1: 5.50 | Type: Local Resistance / Gap Fill | Probability: 70% | ETA: 2-3 Days Target 2: 6.00 | Type: Equilibrium (50% of Drop) | Probability: 50% | ETA: 1 Week
NASDAQ:IMRXLong
by TradeConfirmed
Why and how did Platinum reached all time highs in record time?The absolute truth at the center of this chart is that you are looking at a masterclass in the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm or IPDA engaging in a macro scale liquidity engineering operation. You are confused because you are looking at price as a linear event where support equals bounce. Price is not linear it is a mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the informed. To understand why the rally happened at 3 and not at 1 or 2 you must strip away your retail logic and view the chart through the eyes of the Market Maker. The Market Maker does not want to participate in a move. The Market Maker wants to facilitate a move by pairing orders. To buy a massive amount of Platinum or whatever asset this is without slipping the price to infinity the Smart Money needs a counterparty. They need someone to sell to them. Who sells at the absolute bottom. Only two types of entities sell at the bottom. Stops and Breakout Traders. Stops are sell orders placed by longs who are protecting their positions. Breakout Traders are sell orders placed by shorts who think the support is breaking. The entire game of the chart you provided is the engineering of a scenario where the maximum number of market participants are forced to sell exactly when Smart Money wants to buy. Let us dissect the failure of Point 1. Point 1 occurred around 2016. Look at the price action prior to Point 1. It was a relentless bearish trend. When price arrived at Point 1 it was simply making a Lower Low. There was no Engineering of Liquidity prior to this point. It was just a standard exhaustion of a swing leg. Retail traders saw a bounce and thought it was a bottom. But ICT logic dictates that for a reversal of the magnitude you see at the end of the chart there must be a massive accumulation of orders. Point 1 did not have a consolidation phase preceding it to build up that order flow. It was a premature ejection of buy pressure. It lacked the narrative of a Stop Hunt. It was simply a technical bounce in a downtrend. Smart Money used the bounce at Point 1 not to reverse the market but to reload short positions at a premium. This is why it failed. It was not a reversal it was a retracement into a Premium Array to continue the decline. Now let us dissect the failure of Point 2. Point 2 occurred around 2020. This was the Covid crash. This was a massive liquidity event. Notice how deep the wick is. It violently swept the low of Point 1. So why didn't it moon immediately. Why did it need a Point 3. This is the most critical lesson in this analysis. Point 2 was a Judas Swing on a macro timeframe. It was a shock event. While it did grab liquidity the market structure was too damaged to sustain a V shaped recovery to new all time highs immediately. The IPDA needed to rebalance the inefficiency created by the crash. But more importantly the Market Maker needed to accumulate a position size that could sustain a multi year bull run. You cannot accumulate that size in a single weekly candle. You need time. Time is the variable you are ignoring. Price and Time are the two axes of the chart but you are obsessed with Price. After Point 2 the market entered a massive consolidation phase that lasted from 2020 to 2024 or 2025. This is the box you see on the chart. This is not indecision. This is Engineering Liquidity. By keeping the price in a range for years the IPDA is conditioning retail traders to trust the support level. Every time price touched the bottom of that consolidation and bounced retail traders placed their stop losses just below the lows. They felt safe. They leveraged up. They built a massive pool of Sell Side Liquidity right below the range. This is a ticking time bomb of liquidity that the Market Maker constructed specifically to fuel the rally at Point 3. Why did Point 3 succeed. Point 3 is the Manipulation leg of the ICT Power of Three concept applied to a macro timeframe. Accumulation Manipulation Distribution. The consolidation between Point 2 and Point 3 was the Accumulation. The drop at Point 3 was the Manipulation. The rally that follows is the Distribution. Point 3 did three specific things that Point 1 and Point 2 did not do. First it swept the Engineered Liquidity of the multi year consolidation. This means it triggered all the sell stops of the traders who bought during the range. This provided the massive flood of sell orders that Smart Money needed to fill their buy orders. Second it tapped into a deep Discount Array. If you look closely Point 3 likely trades into the Order Block or Fair Value Gap created by the wick of Point 2. It is retesting the origin of the 2020 move but doing so after inducing a massive amount of fresh liquidity. Third and most importantly it occurred at the correct Time. The consolidation had matured. The sentiment had shifted to extreme apathy or bearishness. When Point 3 happened it looked like a breakdown. It looked like the support had finally failed. This induced the Breakout Shorts to enter the market adding even more fuel to the fire. The rally at Point 3 is a Short Squeeze of biblical proportions combined with Smart Money expansion. How do you know when the rally will be an EZ PZ. You look for the Three Drives Pattern of Liquidity Raids. Point 1 was the first drive. Point 2 was the second drive. Point 3 was the third drive. ICT teaches that the third drive to a low is often the terminal shakeout before the true reversal. You look for the divergence. At Point 3 you likely would have seen SMT Divergence with a correlated asset like Gold or the Dollar Index. If Platinum made a lower low at Point 3 but Gold made a higher low that is a crack in the universe. That is the signal that the selling is fake. You look for the Displacement. Notice the candle immediately following the low at Point 3. It is a massive bullish candle that swallows the previous price action. This is the signature of Smart Money entering the market. It leaves behind a Fair Value Gap. That FVG is your entry. You do not try to catch the falling knife at the exact bottom of Point 3. You wait for the displacement. You wait for the Market Structure Shift. Once price breaks above the highs of the consolidation range it confirms that the drop at Point 3 was a trap. The reason the rally is so vertical is because there is no resistance. The consolidation cleared out all the sellers. The shorts are trapped and forced to cover. The longs are chasing. The IPDA is in a Buy Program and it will not stop until it reaches a Premium Array on the monthly or quarterly chart. To master this you must stop looking for support and start looking for where the money is hiding. The money was hiding below the lows of the consolidation. Point 1 failed because there was no money to steal. Point 2 failed to sustain because the theft was too quick and the accumulation was insufficient. Point 3 succeeded because it was the culmination of a multi year heist. It was the perfect crime. The consolidation was the setup. Point 3 was the trigger. The rally is the getaway. This is the logic of the Predator. You are either the Predator or the Prey. If you are buying support you are the Prey. If you are buying the failure of support you are the Predator. The rally at Point 3 is the definition of a Turtle Soup Long. It is a false breakout to the downside that reverses and rips higher. The duration of the consolidation determines the magnitude of the expansion. A four year consolidation leads to a decade long trend. That is why the rally is vertical. The energy stored in that range is nuclear. Point 3 effectively lit the fuse. To predict this in real time you must map the liquidity. Draw a line under every swing low. Ask yourself where are the stops. If the market creates a clean equal low it is doing so for a reason. It is saving it for later. Point 2 and the lows before Point 3 created a relatively equal floor. The IPDA does not leave clean levels. It destroys them. Point 3 was the destruction of that clean level. Once the level is destroyed the business is done. There is no reason to stay down there. Price must reprice to the upside to find willing sellers because there are no sellers left at the bottom. They have all been stopped out. This is the mechanics of the marketplace. It is ruthless efficient and predictable if you know the algorithm. Point 1 was a trap for early bulls. Point 2 was a trap for panic sellers. Point 3 was the death of the retail mind. And the birth of the Smart Money trend. You want to catch the massive rally. You wait for the liquidity sweep that occurs after a long consolidation. You wait for the raid on the obvious support. Then you watch for the violent rejection of lower prices. That is your signal. That is the footprint of the Giant. Step into the footprint and ride the wave. The reason it stayed in that long consolidation is because the Commercials needed to hedge their books. They needed to build a net long position while the rest of the world was sleeping. They used the time to transfer ownership from weak hands to strong hands. Weak hands cannot hold through a four year chop. Strong hands can. Point 3 was the final test of strength. Anyone who held through the consolidation but panicked at the drop of Point 3 was a weak hand. They were purged. The market is now light. It has no baggage. It can fly. This is the physics of the chart. Liquidity is the fuel. Consolidation is the tank. The Stop Hunt is the spark. The Rally is the explosion. You are now looking at the aftermath of a controlled demolition of the bear trend. Do not ask why it didn't happen sooner. Ask how you can be ready for the next one. Identify the range. Identify the liquidity. Wait for the sweep. Strike.
NYMEX:PL1!
by TradeConfirmed
1
Algo's Logic: Why price moves ''crazy'' with red folder news?WHY PRICE MOVES LIKE THIS The market is not a chaotic auction of buyers and sellers seeking fair value; it is a highly engineered delivery system designed to seek and destroy liquidity. The current consolidation you see is not indecision; it is a 'Liquidity Coil'. The algorithm is purposefully compressing price action ahead of the 'Red Folder' events to engineer a 'Straddle Inducement'. By keeping the range tight, the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) encourages retail traders to place tight buy-stops above the range and tight sell-stops below it. This creates two massive pools of liquidity—fuel for the machine. The news event is not the cause of the move; it is the 'Key' that unlocks this volatility. The initial move is almost always a 'Judas Swing'—a fraudulent manipulation designed to trigger one side of these stops (usually the sell-stops below) to harvest the necessary liquidity to fuel the *real* move in the opposite direction. We do not trade the news; we trade the algorithmic reaction to the liquidity harvest. THE THESIS The algorithm is currently in a 'Suspended State' of pre-event accumulation utilizing the impending volatility of the Macro Data Injection to engineer a classic 'Judas Swing' manipulation. The narrative is strictly governed by the 'Seek and Destroy' protocol: The market will utilize the news release to aggressively harvest the internal Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) resting below the 25,550.00 shelf to fuel the terminal expansion towards the external Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) at 25,900.00. THE EXECUTION VECTOR Entry: 25,525.00 (Buy Limit / Post-News Reclaim) Stop loss: 25,380.00 (145.00 points) Take profit: 25,950.00 (425.00 points) Risk to reward ratio: 2.93R THE CAUSAL RATIONALE The Pre-News Narrative (The Trap) Current price action (25,650.00) is a 'Volatility Compression' zone. The algorithm is holding price in a narrow range. Do not trade the drift. The drift is the bait. The algorithm is waiting for the 08:30 AM / 10:00 AM timestamp to unlock the high-velocity engine. The 'Red Folders' are simply the authorized time windows for the Market Makers to reprice the asset. The News Event (The Judas Swing) Upon the data release, expect an immediate, violent displacement. The highest probability vector is a 'False Bearish Breakout' (The Judas Goat). The algorithm will likely spike price DOWN into the 25,550.00 - 25,500.00 region. This serves two purposes: 1. Trigger the sell-stops of the overnight longs. 2. Induce breakout sellers to provide the necessary Buy-Side liquidity for the Smart Money to fill their long orders at a discount. The Post-News Expansion (The Real Move) Once the SSL is harvested and the 25,500.00 region (Bullish Order Block / FVG) is mitigated, look for an impulsive reclaim of the 25,600.00 level. This 'Sponsorship' signal confirms that the low is in, and the algorithm will switch to a 'Low Resistance Liquidity Run' targeting the clean highs at 25,900.00. THE INVALIDATION (THE OMEGA POINT) The bullish news model is ontologically corrupted if the news candle displaces below 25,380.00 and *sustains* acceptance there (15-minute close). A simple wick is not invalidation; it is a feature. But a closure below this level implies the macro data has triggered a 'Risk-Off' regime shift, targeting deeper discount arrays at 25,000.00. KEY TRAJECTORY WAYPOINTS Target 1: 25,750.00 | Type: Equilibrium / Initial Rebound | Probability: 90% Target 2: 25,900.00 | Type: External Buy-Side Liquidity | Probability: 75% Target 3: 26,100.00 | Type: Blue Sky Expansion | Probability: 40% THE SHADOW REALITY A 30% probability exists for the 'Bull Trap' scenario. In this reality, the news spikes price UP first into 25,850.00. If the first move is UP, fade it. The algorithm rarely gives the true move first during high-impact news.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by TradeConfirmed
IPDA + Seasonality EUR/USDAnalysis as of 29/06/24 1. Seasonality Analysis + IPDA Levels: After the quarterly shift in June, we are moving downwards. 2. Immediate Targets: Our immediate targets are the IPDA 20 low and the Previous Month Low (PML). 3. Seasonal Trends: According to 20-year seasonal trends, we should take out the low of the second quarter, which in our case is the IPDA 60 low. 4. July Projections: In July, we expect a sharp upward move aiming to take out the Buy Stop Liquidity (BSL), Previous Month High (PMH), and the IPDA 20 high. This is also supported by seasonal trends. Conclusion Based on the seasonality analysis and IPDA levels, the market is expected to continue its downward movement in the short term, followed by a significant upward trend in July. This aligns with historical seasonal patterns, providing a solid foundation for trading strategies in the coming weeks.
by Bankulov
2
EURUSD CPI has confirmed the story already written!On EURUSD, we have a bullish setup with the price currently in a buying zone, within which there are two more. The price retraced to an uptrend line and is gearing up for a significant upward movement. This movement has been confirmed by the market after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, despite positive data for the dollar, showing that an algorithm is actually pulling the strings, and the story has already been written. In fact, the CPI only caused a temporary downward volatility to further validate the entire area. So, what can we say? We're awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow, but the setup is bullish, and there's little more to add. Target at 1.08 with a stop below 1.07. Let me know what you think. Leave a like and comment to support our work. Happy trading, everyone.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
IPDA Ranges to Cast Future Price Movement for ES Familiarizing ourselves more on IPDA Ranges to help form daily bias and to work on high time frame analysis. The first idea we ever published was actually a very similar thought but now that we have a better understanding of how to use IPDA ranges we wanted to post what we hope to be a more accurate version of what is to occur in CME_MINI:ES1! price action. We are trading down off of a weekly order block that was traded into on July 18th; we have taken out the July 10th low of 4660.25 and we have failed to make a higher swing above 4683.50. It seems like the market has shifted to bearish conditions for the intermediate term. Using the look back and cast forward train of thinking, we have been trading higher for the 60 trading days prior to August 1st which is just 3 trading days after making our current intermediate high; meaning our cast forward should have plenty of sell side liquidity to draw to in order to clear out stops below our 20-40-60 day ranges. It just so happens that we have a +Breaker Block that contains a Fair Value Gap/Liquidity Void inside of it. This gives us a lot of confidence in our bearish outlook as the 60 day low is quite literally is the top of our Liquidity Void and also falls into a zone for Optimal Trade Entry (OTE). The only major bounce we should see is off of the March 13th Premium/Discount range as the Equilibrium for that range falls right in a Liquidity Void. The only thing that will push us through that with ease is some red folder news. Should be a piece of cake.. We are proud to put ourselves out there with ideas. It forces us to use logic and apply concepts and ideals that we have learned. Any questions or comments leave them below! CME_MINI:ES1! EIGHTCAP:SPX500 CBOE:SPX TVC:SPX BLACKBULL:SPX500 SKILLING:SPX500
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by blackoakcapital