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US Job Openings (JOLTS) vs S&P 500: 2026 Divergence Persists US Job Openings (JOLTS) vs S&P 500: 2026 Divergence Persists: AI Boom or Recession Warning? 📉🤖 Description: The historical correlation between US job openings (from JOLTS data) and the S&P 500 has broken down dramatically since late 2022, and as of early 2026, the gap is widening. This chart overlay highlights a key macro divergence that traders should monitor closely for potential market shifts. 📊 Chart Setup on TradingView: 1. Start with the S&P 500 index: Search for "SPX" or "SP:SPX" as your main symbol. 🔍 2. Add a comparison: Go to "Compare" in the chart menu, search for "FRED:JTSJOL" (Job Openings: Total Nonfarm, sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data). ➕ 3. Normalize for better visualization: Use percentage change from a baseline (e.g., November 2022) or index both to 100 at a common point. ⚖️ 4. Timeframe: Monthly or weekly for longterm view; add a vertical line at November 30, 2022 (ChatGPT release date) to mark the divergence start. 📅 5. Optional indicators: Add RSI on SPX for overbought signals, or correlate with unemployment rate (FRED:UNRATE) for additional context. 📈 Key Data Points (as of February 3, 2026): | Metric | Value | Change from Peak/Recent | | Latest Job Openings (Nov 2025) | 7.146 million | 41% drop from peak of 12.134 million (Mar 2022) | | S&P 500 Close (Feb 3, 2026) | 6,907.41 | +44% from Nov 2022 levels (~4,800), hitting new highs | | Job Openings Rate | 4.3% | Down from 7.3% peak in 2022 | | Historical Correlation (pre2023) | ~0.85 (strong positive) | Now near 0, indicating decoupling | Analysis & Context: Historical Trend: Job openings have traditionally mirrored stock market performance, as a tight labor market signals economic strength, boosting corporate earnings and investor confidence. From 20002022, the two moved in tandem through booms and busts (e.g., post2008 recovery). 📜 The Divergence : Starting around late 2022, coinciding with the public release of ChatGPT and the AI hype cycle, job openings began trending downward while the S&P 500 surged. Openings have fallen steadily (e.g., 303,000 drop in Nov 2025 alone), driven by sectors like accommodation/food services (148,000 drop) and transportation (108,000 drop), offset partially by gains in construction (+90,000). 🔻 Potential Causes: AI Productivity Gains: Companies are leveraging AI tools to automate tasks, reducing the need for new hires while maintaining output. This "productivity paradox" allows earnings growth without labor expansion. 🤖💼 Economic Softening : Quits rate steady at ~2.0% and layoffs at 1.7 million suggest a cooling but not collapsing job market. However, if this persists, it could foreshadow weaker consumer spending. ❄️ Fed Policy & Inflation : With rates stabilizing, markets are pricing in growth, but labor data lags, creating a mismatch. 💰 Implications for the Economy : Bullish view: This is a "soft landing" where AI drives efficiency, supporting higher valuations. Bearish view: Divergences like this have preceded recessions (e.g., 2000 dotcom bust). If openings drop below 7 million, it might signal broader weakness, pressuring megacap tech stocks that have driven SPX gains. ⚠️ Actionable Insights for Traders: ShortTerm : Watch tomorrow's JOLTS release (Feb 4, 2026) for December 2025 data: consensus expects ~7.23 million. A miss below 7.1M could trigger SPX pullback; consider shorting via SPY puts if it breaks 6,850 support. ⏰ MediumTerm Strategy : If divergence widens (openings <6.5M by mid2026), rotate from growth stocks to defensives (e.g., utilities, consumer staples). Target SPX upside resistance at 7,000; downside support at 6,800 (50day MA). 🔄 Risk Management : Use this as a macro overlay: pair with VIX for volatility spikes. Set alerts on TradingView for JOLTS updates via FRED integration. 🛡️ Trade Idea : Long SPX if openings stabilize above 7M (bullish confirmation); hedge with VIX calls if below. Position size: 12% risk per trade. 💡 What do you think: bullish on AI or bearish on labor? Share your views below! 🗣️ #SPX #JOLTS #Economy #AI #Trading

$USJO (MoM)ECONOMICS:USJO U.S Job Openings Down to 2021-Lows source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The number of Job Openings fell by 237K to 7.673 million in July 2024, the lowest level since January 2021, compared to a downwardly revised 7.91 million in June, and well below market forecasts of 8.1 million. Job openings decreased the most in health care and social assistance; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and state and local government.

Again macro conditions don't foretell a crash soon In May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same. BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro. Once again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected. 1. The Fed Rate (FEDFUNDS dark purple) falls before unemployment rises and recession. Note that the market rose while the interest rate was at its peak in 2006-2007 and 2019. So a further interest rate rise in November shouldn't be a worry, not that it seems likely today looking at the CME Fedwatch Tool www.cmegroup.com 2. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims - dark blue). Still unchanged since May. 3. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE dark gray) rises before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is up to 3.8% and unchanged August-September. Relatively static and close to multi-year lows. 4. Note that since May: * Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue at the bottom) have dropped * Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC light gray) are unchanged * Non-farm Payrolls (USNFP green) are unchanged * Job openings (JTSJOL light purple) fell slightly and rose back to the May level. At over 9m there are more available jobs that any time pre-COVID. * The number of Employed Persons (USEMP light pink) is rising continuously and is now at 161.5m - almost 3m more that pre-COVID. There's your economic growth. 5. After a year in decline, M2 Money Supply rose during the summer but might now be falling - a negative indicator? 6. The SPX drop last year was a result of inflation -> rate rises -> fear. But the recession didn't happen and the economy still looks strong Conclusion is that macro conditions still don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future. NOT TRADING ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

EUR/USD eyes German, Eurozone CPI report The euro's mini-rally has run out of steam. EUR/USD climbed 0.80% over the past two days but is trading in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0867, down 0.11%. The markets will be keeping a close eye on European inflation releases today and Thursday. Germany releases the July CPI report later today, with a consensus estimate of 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in July. The once-formidable German juggernaut is in trouble and inflation remains high. The eurozone releases July CPI on Thursday, which is expected to drop from 5.3% to 5.1%. The ECB meets next on September 14th and ECB President Lagarde may have signalled that another rate hike is coming. Lagarde attended the Jackson Hole summit last week and said that interest rates would remain high "as long as necessary" in order to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. Lagarde's hawkish remarks were more hawkish than her comments at the July meeting, where she said that ECB policy makers had an "open mind" about the September decision. There's no arguing that eurozone inflation remains too high, but the argument against raising rates even higher is that the eurozone economy is not in great shape, and nine straight rate hikes from the ECB have cooled economic growth. Further hikes could tip the economy into a recession, which means that the ECB has its work cut out in deciding whether to raise rates again or take a pause in September. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, and disappointing data on Tuesday may have cemented a pause. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August, marking a two-year low. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. This was the sixth decline in the past seven months, a sign that the resilient US labour market is showing cracks. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.0896. The next resistance line is 1.0996 1.0831 and 1.0731 are providing support

Australian dollar edges up ahead of inflation report The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6437, up 0.12% on the day. China's economic slowdown is bad news for the Australian economy, which counts China as its biggest export market. China's imports have been falling and as a result, commodity prices have dropped, hurting Australia's exports of iron ore and gold to China. China continues to record weak economic numbers and this will likely be reflected in lower GDP releases, although economic growth is above 5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to China's economic strength and has declined by around 3% in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5th and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.10% for a second straight month. There are clear signs of the economy cooling, including inflation and wage growth easing and a slight rise in unemployment. The RBA would like to extend the pause in rate hikes, with an eye on lowering rates sometime in 2024. All eyes will be on Australia's July inflation report which will be released on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, albeit slowly. In June, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4% and the consensus estimate for July is 5.2%. If inflation drops to 5.2% or lower, it should cement a RBA pause in September. A higher rate than 5.2% won't necessarily mean a rate hike, but it would likely lower the odds of a pause, which are currently around 90%. In the US, it is a busy Tuesday with consumer confidence and employment releases. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index has been on the rise and soared to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June. The estimate for August is 116.0 points. JOLTS Job Openings is projected to decelerate for a second straight month in July, from 9.58 million to 9.46 million. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6424 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6360 There is resistance at 0.6470 and 0.6531

The unemployment rate is very likely to rise Job openings are a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Lower job openings lead to a unemployment rate higher.