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Jpyxanalysis

Short CADJPY and USDJPY, Swing Trade Trading Idea: Short CADJPY & USDJPY Date: August 14, 2025 Strategy Type: Short-term bearish play on JPY crosses 📰 Key News Drivers - Japan GDP Data (Q2 Preliminary): - QoQ: 0.0% (flat growth) - YoY: -0.2% (mild contraction) - GDP Deflator YoY: 3.3% (strong inflation signal) - USDJPY Technical Outlook: - Current price: ~146.60 - Bearish momentum confirmed by moving averages - Key support: 146.386 - Break below 146.500 could trigger further downside - JPY Strength Factors: - Modest improvement in Japan’s M2 Money Stock - Lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data weakening USD - Risk-off sentiment favoring safe-haven JPY 📊 Trade Rationale | Pair | Bearish Catalyst | Technical Setup | Target Zone | | USDJPY | Weak U.S. inflation + strong JPY deflator | Testing support at 146.386 | 146.00 or lower | | CADJPY | CAD vulnerable to oil price volatility + JPY strength | Likely to follow USDJPY breakdown | 106.50–107.00 | - JPY Strength Thesis: Despite flat GDP growth, the strong deflator suggests inflationary pressure, which may prompt the BoJ to maintain or tighten policy. This supports JPY appreciation. - USD Weakness: Lower inflation expectations in the U.S. reduce the likelihood of further Fed hikes, weakening USD. - CAD Vulnerability: CADJPY often correlates with risk sentiment and oil prices. With JPY gaining and global risk tone cautious, CADJPY is exposed. 📌 Execution Plan - USDJPY: - Entry: Short below 146.50 - Stop: 147.10 - Target: 146.00 / 145.50 - CADJPY: - Entry: Short below 107.50 - Stop: 108.20 - Target: 106.50 / 106.00
Short
by ICT_Trader_SB
JPYX → Bear Fakeout! Descending Wedge Bull Breakout! Now What?The Japanese Yen Index descending wedge pattern initially broke to the downside, the opposite expected move statistically. A double bottom formed shortly after and reversed hard to the upside! Now we're at the 200EMA Resistance, what are the next moves? How do we trade this? 🤔 There are no good trades to take on the Daily chart. We're too close to resistance, RSI is over 75.00, and our protective stop for a long position would have to go back down at the breakout point, giving us terrible Risk/Reward. A long would not be ideal given this analysis. I would wait for the price to come back down to the Daily 30EMA and look for a buy signal and confirmation to enter a long. Shorting on the other hand may be an option. Since we're near a resistance zone, a protective stop could be placed above the 200EMA and short to the 30EMA on the 4HR chart. The Macro Trend is bearish, so this would be the ideal direction to trade on the higher timeframes such as this one. I would use the 4HR chart to enter a short, and use the Daily chart to look for a long position. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 763.0 🟥 Stop Loss: 756.5 ✅ Take Profit: 776.0 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Descending Wedge Patern, Bullish! 2. Breakout below Wedge failed! 3. Double-Bottom Reversal, broke out above wedge. 4. Resistance at 200EMA, Wait to Enter. 5. RSI at 75.00, wait for a pullback. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
PEPPERSTONE:JPYX
by TraderEngineering
JPYX Daily Analysis - Will We Break to the Upside?JPYX has been in a descending wedge holding pattern since July of this year and has yet to successfully break out toward the upside. This analysis predicts a pullback from the bear trend up to the Daily 200EMA around 792.0 and if penetrated, to the 807.0 area. Key Points: 1. JPXY is in a descending wedge pattern which is a bullish signal 2. Several bull candles attempting to breakout 3. The bear candles are getting weaker as we consolidate downward 4. The Daily 200EMA target is aligned slightly below the wedge high 5. RSI has some room to move up I do not believe we are in a situation where JPXY will reverse at a macro level, the trend is still bear until we start putting in higher highs on the monthly candles above the Monthly 30EMA. In the short term, I would be careful betting against JPY on the Daily and Weekly given a pullback may be around the corner. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXLong
by TraderEngineering