Perfect until..... GBPUSDI had a nightmare with this.
Thought I would be extra clever and set an order in each direction with with my Spreadbetting account and with a trailing stop loss on both
As you can see the sell side "should" have executed perfectly...
due to slippage the price moved so quickly it skipped right past my order :')
safe to say we learnt something today
Lesson
Why 90% of Retail Traders Fail - "Fear of Missing Out!"There are so many reasons why 90% of retail traders fail. One of the main reasons is because retail traders over trade. They fear missing an opportunity and because of this they think there is always an opportunity when in reality there isn't. As traders, it is our job to find high probable setups. Probable setups are limited though... so you need to have patience to wait for them to unfold.
All too often I see traders here chasing price , and this EURUSD today is a perfect example of this. I can't even imagine how many traders got short on the break out of this short term up trend line. Many probably waited for the hourly candle to close to enter, but what happened? Immediately after they entered price reversed sharply and is on the way to stopping those traders out who most likely have their stop loss just above the high around 1.047.
If we look at the price action over the month of December on this pair, we can clearly see the 1.05-1.052 area have been strong support where buyers continuously stepped in every time price approached it. Once that support was broken you can see that the role of the level reversed and it became resistance. Sellers came in on the back side of the level, however only intraday did it retest the level. It is likely that there will be an official retest of the figure and another major attempt to the downside, even if it is just to the previous low.
IF price comes back to a major area that was support it will VERY LIKELY become resistance. A setup like this is a high probable setup, but it takes a while to unfold. It has been 6 days so far since the level has been broken. Maybe it will hit the level today... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level tomorrow... maybe not. Maybe it will hit the level next week. Maybe it will NEVER come back to the level... Who knows... but as traders we must be patient if we want to get the most probable setups.
It is better to miss a trade than to take a poor trade!
If you want to get setups that have low odds of working out, that is fine. You do you, but if this resonates with even one trader and helps them trade better than my job here is done.
Understanding Structure, Support and ResistanceAs shown on the graph, structure analysis could be very useful.
Resistance line: Use maximums and connect them to draw a resistance line which means that whenever price comes to this line it cannot break it, ther is a strong resistance, forming a trend. Once broken, though, it is a good opportunity to BUY and profit from price increase.
Support line: Similar logic to resistance, however, this time all minimums are connected in order to establish a lower bound for price fluctuations. Once broken, it suggests that price has a strong downward momentum and traders can benefit by SELLING.
Text Book 2618 - Lesson This is not a trading Idea as the reasons for entry have already been and gone.
Text Book 2618 bullish trade
1. Double Bottom against major structure support/resistance
2. RSI Divergence
3. Higher High established
4. Retracement to the 61.8 Fibonacci level
How to trade
1. Stop loss below double bottom (according to your rules) must have 1:1 Risk to reward minimum
2. Target 1 Level with higher high
3. Target 2 next level of resistance - if too far then 1.27 fib extension
4. Take target 1 (if hit) and trail stops for target 2
5. Keep riding the wave for as long as you feel comfortable
Hope this helps anyone who is here trying to learn
Please leave a "Like" if you please
Good Luck
Steve
Why Most Forex Traders Fail... LEVERAGEWay too many traders trade with very little capital and they do this because their brokers allow them to by offering them insane amounts of leverage. We really don't understand it because you would think that these brokers would want their clients to succeed in order to continue placing trades which yields the broker revenue from commissions and spreads. It is inevitable that with such little capital ($50-$100) these traders will go bust and blow their accounts, especially if they are allowed to take position sizes of upwards of 500 times their account value. These retail traders have been conditioned to believe that this is the way Forex trading is and quite frankly it isn't. The most successful Forex traders in the game use little to NO leverage at all and they only return a small consistent return of 1-3% per month. It seems impossible to make money with such small returns but if you actually take the time to break out a calculator and calculate how much such a return yields over extended periods of time like 5 years or 10 years you will see it is immense. Take $10,000... in 8 years with a consistent 5% a month return... that $10,000 will become $1,000,000.
So please guys read through the information on the chart. It is long but it is very valuable!
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How to Infer Currency Strength Without ANY IndicatorsToday I received a question regarding what indicators or websites to use to infer and compare the strength between related currencies. I responded with a long winded explanation as to why it is not necessary to use indicators or websites to infer such information because it can be realized solely through price action. If we look at the daily range today on GBPUSD, EURUSD, and EURGBP which resulted from the huge miss on the NFP numbers, we can gauge the strength between the EUR and the GBP versus the dollar as well as the EUR vs the GBP.
In looking at the daily ranges of these pairs we will first notice that they all had a strong move to the upside. This of course being due to the weakness and downside movement on the dollar ultimately resulting form the miss on the NFP number. Therefore right off the bat we can infer that foreign leading currency pairs should be strong against the dollar today and we can expect to see pairs like the GBPUSD and EURUSD moving to the upside. That is exactly what we see here... price moved as expected.
Now... what if you want to compare the relative strength of the GBP vs the EUR as it relates to the dollar weakness. Well then we will need to bring the cross pair EURGBP into the picture. The EURGBP cross pair will tell you how strong the EUR is vs the GBP. We see that the daily range of the EURGBP cross pair is roughly 90 pips and as of right now this pair has held that range indicating the EUR strength that we see clearly on the EURUSD. The daily range of the EURUSD is roughly 215 pips and it too has held this range indicating its strength. Since most of the day's trading is done for being that it is a Friday we can expect to see these prices hold through to the close of the day.
So we have concluded now that the EUR is for sure strong right now against the dollar and we are thinking since EURGBP is so strong as well that this rally in the GBPUSD might be misleading and the GBP might not be all that strong right now. By looking at the GBPUSD we can see that it's daily range was roughly 160 pips but as of right now it has already give up roughly 1/3 of that range and price is showing signs of continued downside movement. Seeing this we can conclude that the EUR is certainly stronger than the GBP right now and going into next week if we continue to see upside movement on EURUSD and EURGBP we can expect to see downside movement on GBPUSD.
We hope you found this to be insightful and if you did you should definitely check out our YouTube channel goo.gl/g8sWn3 where we do live streams every Monday Wednesday and Friday at 7 p.m. eastern standard time.
Enjoy your weekend!